Well, you have my prediction for the Indians this year in the post below. Let's examine my predictions from last year and see how I did:
Cleveland Indians:
Record: 90-72 - Off by 10 gamers. ARRGH!!
MVP: Corey Kluber - I am OK with this one as no one stood out any more to me than Kluber although a case could be (and has been) made for Kipnis being the MVP.
Biggest surprise: Carlos Carrasco, Giovanny Urshela (tie) - Still OK with this one
Rookie of the year: Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela (tie) - Lindor won this one clearly
Players making their major league debuts: Lindor, Urshela, Carlos Moncrief, James Ramsey, Shawn Armstrong, Cody Anderson - OK, so I blew up on Moncrief and Ramsey but 4 of 6 is not bad.
Farm teams:
Columbus: 80-64 - 83-61 pretty close
Akron: 70-74 - 73-69, relatively close
Lynchburg: 70-74 - 72-68 relatively close
Lake County: 64-80 - 71-66 way off
minor league MVP: Bradley Zimmer - Probably correct although others had good years, too
biggest surprise: Clint Frazier (his season will surprise even though he is a top-ranked prospect) - I think you could make a case for this one being correct, too. I don't know of anyone else who had a positive surprising season.
Ah, thus is the life of a predictor. Some good, some bad. Hope my Indians prediction below is good this year!
Thursday, March 31, 2016
25 Man Roster Post
First, the 25 man roster at the beginning of the season is TRULY a moment in time. These things can change dramatically and in a short period of time. Still, some interesting decisions. Here are some thoughts:
Bauer to the bullpen - When a highly prized young player dedicates himself to getting better...and appears to get better on the things he needed to get better at...it is a little surprising he isn't rewarded by having the confidence of his bosses. Hey, in our lives we have all seen people get screwed in this type of situation: sports, business, personal interactions. Still, it does raise some eyebrows when it is as public as professional sports is. Trevor Bauer might not be happy about this but all he has to do is look across the locker room towards Josh Tomlin's locker to see a player who has been bounced around and, frankly, trampled on by the Indians. Not only in the majors but in the minors, too. All he has done as they have moved him from starting to the bullpen, back to starting on a moment's notice and then back to the bullpen no matter his results as a starter, is PITCH WELL. Bauer needs to take a page out of Tomlin's book and be lights out in the bullpen. If he does that he will be available when they need him. If he doesn't...
While there is rampant speculation that this means Bauer is on his way out of town, I haven't heard a single person put forth a proposed trade, let alone one that makes sense for the Indians. If the Indians hope to build up Bauer's value by this move, they will be disappointed. They will have to trade him now to get anywhere near to full value although I think by holding on to him and getting him meaningful starts this year they can increase his value for a mid-season or off-season trade. However, I hope that what I have read is correct: that the Indians ARE playing the percentages and looking at how they match up with their April opponents and felt, as has been reported, that Anderson and Tomlin were better bets to win April games.
The bullpen - The Indians have chosen to go with a veteran bullpen dotted with non-roster invitees from this year and last to go along with guys who have multiple years in Cleveland. Interestingly the only lefty in the bullpen is a starter (Ross Detweiler) and other lefties who did well in spring training (Kyle Crockett (except for one outing), Joe Thatcher and Tom Gorzelanny) were kicked to the curb. The Otero-instead-of-a-lefty decision is especially interesting. So the Indians will start with a veteran bullpen made up of two starters (Bauer and Detweiler) and three non-roster righthanders (Otero, Chamberlain, Manship) and three holdover righthanders (Shaw, Allen, McAllister). Not a LOOGY in the bunch.
Position players - Part 1 - Just like the bullpen, the Indians shopped in the bargain basement department to bring in Juan Uribe, Marlon Byrd, Rajai Davis and Colin Cowgill. Now no one expects Cowgill to be here any longer than you can say "Michael Brantley is now off the DL". However, it will be interesting to see what happens when Lonnie Chisenhall comes off the DL. Clearly we have too man relief pitchers so one could go.
Position players - Part 2 - Tyler Naquin made the team but it will be interesting to see if he is in the opening day lineup. They obviously are going with a youngster at SS in Lindor but he precocious, whereas Naquin may just be good. Given that they brought in Uribe and sent out Urshela, and given the composition of the bullpen and what they are doing in the bullpen, my money is on Naquin going to the bench once Brantley comes back. If he isn't in the opening day starting lineup, that will signal to me that this is the Indians' plan as they want to start fast and the more rookies you have playing significant roles, the less likely you are to start fast.
The prediction - OK, so conventional wisdom would say that the Indians are too weak in the hitting department and that the pitching will not hold up. If this turns out to be the case they will go 78-84. However, I am going out on a limb and saying that the Indians will make the playoffs. How they do there will depend solely on what moves they are able to make at the trading deadline. They have the types of ML-ready chips to play at that point: Erik Gonzalez, Ryan Merritt, Adam Plutko and Austin Adams. They will also have some low minor top prospects like Bobby Bradley, Justin Sheffield and Mike Papi. With that being said I think everything will fall into place and the Indians will finish 92-70 and make the playoffs and, if they stay healthy and get the pieces, they will upset the Royals and make it to the World Series. If their starting pitching is as strong as I think it will be (three #1 or #2 starters plus a solid bullpen), I think they win the series in 6 in one of the lowest scoring World Series in recent years. Well, there you have it. It is now on record on the internet. Let's see how it turns out.
Indians 90-72 - Wild card winner, division series winner, league championship winner, world series winner.
MVP - Corey Kluber
Rookie of the year - Bradley Zimmer
Biggest surprises: Bradley Zimmer and Jose Ramirez
Minor league surprise player of the year - Mike Papi
Minor league pitcher and player of the year: Adam Plutko and Mike Papi
Indians minor leaguers to make their ML debuts this year: Bradley Zimmer, Ryan Merritt, Adam Plutko, Tyler Naquin (sorry, I had to ensure I got one right), Jarrett Grube (already has one IP for the Rockies but he will get a few innings for the Indians, as well), Erik Gonzalez, Todd Hankins, Mike Clevinger, Jeff Johnson.
Minor league records:
Columbus: 70-74
Akron: 80-64
Lynchburg: 76-68
Lake County: 76-68
Bauer to the bullpen - When a highly prized young player dedicates himself to getting better...and appears to get better on the things he needed to get better at...it is a little surprising he isn't rewarded by having the confidence of his bosses. Hey, in our lives we have all seen people get screwed in this type of situation: sports, business, personal interactions. Still, it does raise some eyebrows when it is as public as professional sports is. Trevor Bauer might not be happy about this but all he has to do is look across the locker room towards Josh Tomlin's locker to see a player who has been bounced around and, frankly, trampled on by the Indians. Not only in the majors but in the minors, too. All he has done as they have moved him from starting to the bullpen, back to starting on a moment's notice and then back to the bullpen no matter his results as a starter, is PITCH WELL. Bauer needs to take a page out of Tomlin's book and be lights out in the bullpen. If he does that he will be available when they need him. If he doesn't...
While there is rampant speculation that this means Bauer is on his way out of town, I haven't heard a single person put forth a proposed trade, let alone one that makes sense for the Indians. If the Indians hope to build up Bauer's value by this move, they will be disappointed. They will have to trade him now to get anywhere near to full value although I think by holding on to him and getting him meaningful starts this year they can increase his value for a mid-season or off-season trade. However, I hope that what I have read is correct: that the Indians ARE playing the percentages and looking at how they match up with their April opponents and felt, as has been reported, that Anderson and Tomlin were better bets to win April games.
The bullpen - The Indians have chosen to go with a veteran bullpen dotted with non-roster invitees from this year and last to go along with guys who have multiple years in Cleveland. Interestingly the only lefty in the bullpen is a starter (Ross Detweiler) and other lefties who did well in spring training (Kyle Crockett (except for one outing), Joe Thatcher and Tom Gorzelanny) were kicked to the curb. The Otero-instead-of-a-lefty decision is especially interesting. So the Indians will start with a veteran bullpen made up of two starters (Bauer and Detweiler) and three non-roster righthanders (Otero, Chamberlain, Manship) and three holdover righthanders (Shaw, Allen, McAllister). Not a LOOGY in the bunch.
Position players - Part 1 - Just like the bullpen, the Indians shopped in the bargain basement department to bring in Juan Uribe, Marlon Byrd, Rajai Davis and Colin Cowgill. Now no one expects Cowgill to be here any longer than you can say "Michael Brantley is now off the DL". However, it will be interesting to see what happens when Lonnie Chisenhall comes off the DL. Clearly we have too man relief pitchers so one could go.
Position players - Part 2 - Tyler Naquin made the team but it will be interesting to see if he is in the opening day lineup. They obviously are going with a youngster at SS in Lindor but he precocious, whereas Naquin may just be good. Given that they brought in Uribe and sent out Urshela, and given the composition of the bullpen and what they are doing in the bullpen, my money is on Naquin going to the bench once Brantley comes back. If he isn't in the opening day starting lineup, that will signal to me that this is the Indians' plan as they want to start fast and the more rookies you have playing significant roles, the less likely you are to start fast.
The prediction - OK, so conventional wisdom would say that the Indians are too weak in the hitting department and that the pitching will not hold up. If this turns out to be the case they will go 78-84. However, I am going out on a limb and saying that the Indians will make the playoffs. How they do there will depend solely on what moves they are able to make at the trading deadline. They have the types of ML-ready chips to play at that point: Erik Gonzalez, Ryan Merritt, Adam Plutko and Austin Adams. They will also have some low minor top prospects like Bobby Bradley, Justin Sheffield and Mike Papi. With that being said I think everything will fall into place and the Indians will finish 92-70 and make the playoffs and, if they stay healthy and get the pieces, they will upset the Royals and make it to the World Series. If their starting pitching is as strong as I think it will be (three #1 or #2 starters plus a solid bullpen), I think they win the series in 6 in one of the lowest scoring World Series in recent years. Well, there you have it. It is now on record on the internet. Let's see how it turns out.
Indians 90-72 - Wild card winner, division series winner, league championship winner, world series winner.
MVP - Corey Kluber
Rookie of the year - Bradley Zimmer
Biggest surprises: Bradley Zimmer and Jose Ramirez
Minor league surprise player of the year - Mike Papi
Minor league pitcher and player of the year: Adam Plutko and Mike Papi
Indians minor leaguers to make their ML debuts this year: Bradley Zimmer, Ryan Merritt, Adam Plutko, Tyler Naquin (sorry, I had to ensure I got one right), Jarrett Grube (already has one IP for the Rockies but he will get a few innings for the Indians, as well), Erik Gonzalez, Todd Hankins, Mike Clevinger, Jeff Johnson.
Minor league records:
Columbus: 70-74
Akron: 80-64
Lynchburg: 76-68
Lake County: 76-68
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
What To Do With The Roster
OK, most of the final roster decisions have been made and, right now, a major point is what are we going to do to fit the remaining non-roster invitees onto the 40-man roster. Right now, the 40 man roster appears to be more than full. Obviously those roster changes are just on paper until the team has to actually make moves, which should happen right before opening day. Teams tend to hold off making a lot of these moves until at the very end of spring training as a number of the moves involve waiving someone off the 40-man roster to make a spot for a non-roster invitee. Most of the time the player taken off the roster has to be exposed to waivers and, potentially lost to another team (as happened to C/2B prospect Tony Wolters earlier this year). If a guy would get lost and then the player who replaced him on the roster would get hurt before opening day...that would not be good. So teams wait. Plus, if the Indians wait until right before opening day, other teams would have likely filled their rosters with non-roster invitees making it less likely (though still pretty likely) that a player the Indians waived would be picked up by another team.
It looks like the Indians will add Marlon Byrd, Joba Chamberlain, Dan Otero and Ross Detweiler to their roster. By my count that would put the 40-man roster at 43, meaning they would have to waive three prospects/veterans off the roster or put them on the 60-day disabled list, both methods used by teams to get their rosters down to 40. Let's look at the players who might be at risk, starting from the ones most at risk:
Jesus Aguilar - If you compare his versatility and ability to help the team right now, he is near the bottom on both accounts. In Cleveland we hate to lose prospects (see Hector Rondon of the Cubs who I predicted would become the Cubs closer when the Indians lost him to the Rule 5 draft a couple of years ago) but I think the Indians are done with Aguilar.
Tommy Hunter - I think he is NOT a candidate to be waived but may be a candidate to go on the 60-day DL. I think the Indians like him and can use this tactic to keep him AND not lose a prospect.
Zach Walters - The losing of Tony Wolters was, I think, a bad sign for Walters. Wolters had more upside and versatility and hadn't really failed in the majors. Walters has failed. If push comes to shove, I think they waive Walters.
Joey Butler - Now, here is a guy that many might think would be waived. I think his major league experience saves him if he has a minor league option left. You could call on him to come up for a week or a month and get some production out of him in the outfield. I think the Indians stash him at AAA as an insurance policy.
James Ramsey - I think the only thing saving him right now is that he is on the 40-man and is the second best healthy centerfielder in our system, if you don't count Bradley Zimmer. I think once Zimmer makes the majors later this year and Brantley becomes healthy, Ramsey is really not needed. Right now, however, he is an insurance policy until Brantley is healthy and Zimmer is ready, so they don't want to lose him on waivers.
I would be very surprised if anyone else on the current 40-man roster is in danger of being waived. I think lefties TJ House, Giovanni Soto, Ryan Merritt and Kyle Crockett still have upside and even though he has been injured, Dylan Baker made the 40-man this winter and so has significant upside.
In summary I think Cleveland fans should get used to the idea that Aguilar and Walters are gone. Let's hope we don't lose anyone else.
It looks like the Indians will add Marlon Byrd, Joba Chamberlain, Dan Otero and Ross Detweiler to their roster. By my count that would put the 40-man roster at 43, meaning they would have to waive three prospects/veterans off the roster or put them on the 60-day disabled list, both methods used by teams to get their rosters down to 40. Let's look at the players who might be at risk, starting from the ones most at risk:
Jesus Aguilar - If you compare his versatility and ability to help the team right now, he is near the bottom on both accounts. In Cleveland we hate to lose prospects (see Hector Rondon of the Cubs who I predicted would become the Cubs closer when the Indians lost him to the Rule 5 draft a couple of years ago) but I think the Indians are done with Aguilar.
Tommy Hunter - I think he is NOT a candidate to be waived but may be a candidate to go on the 60-day DL. I think the Indians like him and can use this tactic to keep him AND not lose a prospect.
Zach Walters - The losing of Tony Wolters was, I think, a bad sign for Walters. Wolters had more upside and versatility and hadn't really failed in the majors. Walters has failed. If push comes to shove, I think they waive Walters.
Joey Butler - Now, here is a guy that many might think would be waived. I think his major league experience saves him if he has a minor league option left. You could call on him to come up for a week or a month and get some production out of him in the outfield. I think the Indians stash him at AAA as an insurance policy.
James Ramsey - I think the only thing saving him right now is that he is on the 40-man and is the second best healthy centerfielder in our system, if you don't count Bradley Zimmer. I think once Zimmer makes the majors later this year and Brantley becomes healthy, Ramsey is really not needed. Right now, however, he is an insurance policy until Brantley is healthy and Zimmer is ready, so they don't want to lose him on waivers.
I would be very surprised if anyone else on the current 40-man roster is in danger of being waived. I think lefties TJ House, Giovanni Soto, Ryan Merritt and Kyle Crockett still have upside and even though he has been injured, Dylan Baker made the 40-man this winter and so has significant upside.
In summary I think Cleveland fans should get used to the idea that Aguilar and Walters are gone. Let's hope we don't lose anyone else.
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
Indians top 75 prospects - March, 2016
Let's jump in:
1. Bradley Zimmer - Will be in the majors by July with a Lindor-esque first year in the bigs
2. Clint Frazier - I predict a big year for him, which as a top 50 prospect in baseball, is saying a lot
3. Mike Papi - No way he is as bad as he has shown. Biggest breakout prospect in baseball this year
4. Mike Clevinger - The only thing stopping this kid is the logjam of quality starters in front of him.
5. Tyler Naquin - Limited power makes him look more like a 4th outfielder but flanked by Brantley and Zimmer, he could still be a good piece of the puzzle.
6. Brady Aiken - Still not sure about his arm but the pedigree is there
7. Justus Sheffield - A long way way from the majors and off-field questions raise issues
8. Tristen McKenzie - He is the classic high-risk, high-reward prospect
9. Bobby Bradley - I like him. I just don't know if he is Jesus Aguilar or Jim Thome.
10. Adam Plutko - Low ceiling, low floor. He could pitch in the majors sometime this year
11. Juan Hillman - See McKenzie
12. Rob Kaminsky - I like him more as a reliever but someone like him helps balance out the all-right rotation so he may get an early shot this year if he is healthy. More than likely, however, he is 2 years away.
13. Shawn Armstrong - I like him a lot more than most and think he could be Bryan Shaw by next year.
14. Mitch Brown - He seems to be up and down from year to year. This will be an up year for him.
15, Nellie Rodriguez - He has some upside but his development path is one level a year so his worth is about three years from being decided.
16. Erik Gonzalez - Right now his path to the majors is blocked at many levels (Ramirez, Lindor, Stamets). He will have to separate himself by hitting and I am afraid he may never be able to do that. If he can, he could surpass Lindor offensively. Other than that, his worth may be greater in another organization. Most likely player to be traded by the trade deadline.
17. Francisco Mejia - I am starting to doubt if he will hit enough. If he doesn't he will become a backup catcher...but not as good as Roberto Perez.
18. Shawn Morimando - He will hit a bump in the road this year and will require more seasoning than most expect him to. Majors by 2018 if not traded before then.
19. Dylan Baker - If he can stay healthy he should put himself in the 2017 ML picture with a solid season across two levels this year.
20. Mark Mathias
21. Eric Stamets
22. Ryan Merritt
23. Yandy Diaz
24. Yu-Cheng Chang
25. Giovanni Soto
26. Gabriel Mejia - Old for a Dominican player but he almost led the Indians in stolen bases two years in a row...playing in short season leagues both years. One of the few Indians' minor leagues with even one '80' tool.
27. Luke Wakamatsu
28. Tyler Krieger
29. Dace Kime - Maybe this year they will FINALLY make him a reliever. A role he can thrive in.
30. Luigi Rodriguez - I know, I know, he is suspended for about 70 more games but I think the talent is there and his production in 2015 was when he was finally healthy.
31. Luis Lugo
32, Sean Brady
33. Justin Garza - a top 50 prospect in the draft entering last spring. Maybe still something there
34. Willi Castro
35. Greg Allen
36. Dorsyss Paulino
37. Ka'i Tom
38. Anthony Santander
39. James Ramsey
40. Jesus Aguilar
41. Zach Walters
42. Jared Robinson
43. Jeff Johnson
44. Toru Murata
45. Jonas Wyatt
46. Casey Shane
47. Grant Hockin
48. Sam Hentges
49. Ivan Castillo
50. Ronny Rodriguez
51. Will Roberts
52. Josh Martin - If he comes back from the Rule 5.
53. Micah Miniard
54. LeVon Washington
55. Anthony Miller
56. Ryan Perez - A top 200 draft prospect last spring. Maybe something there.
57. Daniel Salters
58. Alexis Pantoja
59. Enosil Tejeda
60. Jordan Smith
61. DJ Brown
62. Anthony Gallas
63. JP Feyereisen
64. Joseph Colon
65. Jacob Lee
66. Ben Heller
67. Justin Brantley
68. Emmanuel Tapia
69. Matt Esparza
70. Francisco Perez
71. Henry Pujols
72. Luis Oviedo
73. Jose Fermin
74. Leonardo Rodriguez
75. Leonardo Linares
1. Bradley Zimmer - Will be in the majors by July with a Lindor-esque first year in the bigs
2. Clint Frazier - I predict a big year for him, which as a top 50 prospect in baseball, is saying a lot
3. Mike Papi - No way he is as bad as he has shown. Biggest breakout prospect in baseball this year
4. Mike Clevinger - The only thing stopping this kid is the logjam of quality starters in front of him.
5. Tyler Naquin - Limited power makes him look more like a 4th outfielder but flanked by Brantley and Zimmer, he could still be a good piece of the puzzle.
6. Brady Aiken - Still not sure about his arm but the pedigree is there
7. Justus Sheffield - A long way way from the majors and off-field questions raise issues
8. Tristen McKenzie - He is the classic high-risk, high-reward prospect
9. Bobby Bradley - I like him. I just don't know if he is Jesus Aguilar or Jim Thome.
10. Adam Plutko - Low ceiling, low floor. He could pitch in the majors sometime this year
11. Juan Hillman - See McKenzie
12. Rob Kaminsky - I like him more as a reliever but someone like him helps balance out the all-right rotation so he may get an early shot this year if he is healthy. More than likely, however, he is 2 years away.
13. Shawn Armstrong - I like him a lot more than most and think he could be Bryan Shaw by next year.
14. Mitch Brown - He seems to be up and down from year to year. This will be an up year for him.
15, Nellie Rodriguez - He has some upside but his development path is one level a year so his worth is about three years from being decided.
16. Erik Gonzalez - Right now his path to the majors is blocked at many levels (Ramirez, Lindor, Stamets). He will have to separate himself by hitting and I am afraid he may never be able to do that. If he can, he could surpass Lindor offensively. Other than that, his worth may be greater in another organization. Most likely player to be traded by the trade deadline.
17. Francisco Mejia - I am starting to doubt if he will hit enough. If he doesn't he will become a backup catcher...but not as good as Roberto Perez.
18. Shawn Morimando - He will hit a bump in the road this year and will require more seasoning than most expect him to. Majors by 2018 if not traded before then.
19. Dylan Baker - If he can stay healthy he should put himself in the 2017 ML picture with a solid season across two levels this year.
20. Mark Mathias
21. Eric Stamets
22. Ryan Merritt
23. Yandy Diaz
24. Yu-Cheng Chang
25. Giovanni Soto
26. Gabriel Mejia - Old for a Dominican player but he almost led the Indians in stolen bases two years in a row...playing in short season leagues both years. One of the few Indians' minor leagues with even one '80' tool.
27. Luke Wakamatsu
28. Tyler Krieger
29. Dace Kime - Maybe this year they will FINALLY make him a reliever. A role he can thrive in.
30. Luigi Rodriguez - I know, I know, he is suspended for about 70 more games but I think the talent is there and his production in 2015 was when he was finally healthy.
31. Luis Lugo
32, Sean Brady
33. Justin Garza - a top 50 prospect in the draft entering last spring. Maybe still something there
34. Willi Castro
35. Greg Allen
36. Dorsyss Paulino
37. Ka'i Tom
38. Anthony Santander
39. James Ramsey
40. Jesus Aguilar
41. Zach Walters
42. Jared Robinson
43. Jeff Johnson
44. Toru Murata
45. Jonas Wyatt
46. Casey Shane
47. Grant Hockin
48. Sam Hentges
49. Ivan Castillo
50. Ronny Rodriguez
51. Will Roberts
52. Josh Martin - If he comes back from the Rule 5.
53. Micah Miniard
54. LeVon Washington
55. Anthony Miller
56. Ryan Perez - A top 200 draft prospect last spring. Maybe something there.
57. Daniel Salters
58. Alexis Pantoja
59. Enosil Tejeda
60. Jordan Smith
61. DJ Brown
62. Anthony Gallas
63. JP Feyereisen
64. Joseph Colon
65. Jacob Lee
66. Ben Heller
67. Justin Brantley
68. Emmanuel Tapia
69. Matt Esparza
70. Francisco Perez
71. Henry Pujols
72. Luis Oviedo
73. Jose Fermin
74. Leonardo Rodriguez
75. Leonardo Linares
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