2023 Rule 5 Draft - Part 6 - Happy Roster Freeze Day!!!!!

 2:30 PM ET

All roster freeze day is on.  In it 2:30 ET and so far we have:

• No news from the Guardians
• No trades being announced in baseball
• Only a few teams (Nationals, Brewers Astros, A's, White Sox) making rostering announcements

It's still early but some interesting things:

• A's only 1 of 4 top 30 prospects to their roster.  Don't add #10 Denzel Clarke who has only risent to AA and is 24 years old.  Still, he has speed and could be kept as a 4th outfielder as the rest of his game develops.
• The White Sox add only 2 players, both top 30 guys (out of 3 who were R5 eligible) to their roster.  Their roster stands at 38 meaning they could clearly trade a veteran or 2 or 3 for multiple prospects, not even counting veterans they may DFA to make room.
• Houston adds only 1 of 4 of their top 30 R5-eliigible guys, The other 3 are interesting but not guys who you think would stick with a ML team for a whole year,

5:30 ET

Still no word from the Guardians, who tend to hold their cards close in these situations.  So likely we will hear from them late compared to other teams.

Recent developments on this roster freeze day:

• The Reds had no top 30 prospects who need to be protected from the Rule 5 but protected 2 prospects not in their top 30.
• A trade of two guys already on 40-man rosters sent Myles Straw clone Jose Siri to the Mets for RP Eric Orze.  It is possible that Siri will be non-tendered and that Orze would have been DFA'd by the Mets and so was a throw-away prospect for the Mets but may be useful to the opener-heavy Rays.  So, while it wasn't a Rule 5 trade it may have roster implications on roster freeze day.
• The Red Sox protected 2 of 5 of their top 30 prospects who were Rule 5 eligible
• The Cardinals added 2 players from their top 30 and 2 not on their top 30 and left 2 top 30 prospects off their roster today.  Ian Bedell a RHP was not protected and he may have Rule 5 value as a multi-inning reliever.
• Miami added 3 prospects to their 40 man including Deyvison De Los Santos who was selected in last year's Rule 5 by Cleveland only to be returned to Arizona and later traded to Miami in a deadline deal.  Miami also protected their other 2 R5-eligible top 30 prospects, exactly what you would imagine a rebuilding team might do.

More later!

6:30 ET

The long-awaited roster moves by the Guardians are in.  They have added the following players to their roster:

• Franco Aleman
• Doug Nikhazy
• Nic Enright
• Petey Halpin

They have also designated 3 players for assignment:

• Peter Strzelecki
• Connor Gillaspie
• George Valera

Instant Analysis

• The DFA of George Valera and inclusion of Petey Halpin is just weird.  It makes no sense.  Halpin repeated AA with really no improvement and profiles, at best, as a better defensive version of Will Brennan and, at worst, as Myles Straw, part deux.  Valera, on the other hand, has offensive potential while being very questionable in CF. 
• The inclusion of Aleman and Nikhazy was a given.
• The inclusion of Enright was my dark horse, given his AAA numbers last year.  I think he could step into Nick Sandlin's role tomorrow with maybe more K potential.
• The lack of inclusion of Ryan Webb, Aaron Davenport and Travis Denholm is, to me, very problematic.  These 3 guys compare very favorably to last year's R5 #1 pick, Mitch Spence.  Given the success Spence had for Oakland, since starting pitching is at such a premium in baseball, that it is highly likely that we lose 2 or even 3 of these guys to the R5 this year.  I also believe they have the talent to never come back to Cleveland.  While inclusion of Enright is problematic in light of leaving these 3 exposed to the Rule 5.  Relievers are a dime-a-dozen and Enright will just serve as a backup to a backup plan. Webb could easily be up by June 1st and effective.  The only thing I could see is that they think they will get something out of Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie next year.  I think that is a long shot and I think that one or both of them will be non-tendered in a few days, making the potential loss of Webb, Davenport and Denholm in the R5 more problematic.   Here's the bottom line: you draft 19 college pitchers in 2021.  You have to have an exit plan for these guys involving them either flaming out or getting something back in a trade.  If Cleveland's plan was to take the best couple from the draft and not worry about the rest, that s only a good plan if 'the rest' really suck.  That is not nearly the case with Webb, Denholm, Davenport or even Alaska Abney.  While it would have made life difficult if you kept Webb and Davenport, I think that McKenzie and Allen are done in Cleveland and not seeing that and setting yourself up to lose viable pitchers like Webb, Davenport, Denholm and Abney makes no sense, ESPECIALLY when you kept two minor league relief pitchers.

Normally I have some level of doom and gloom in my R5 posts.  But this year, I am MAJOR on the doom and gloom regarding Webb and Davenport and a little less on Denholm.  I am majorly dome and gloom on rostering Halpin and DFAing Valera, which I think is a totally stupid move and has no chance of EVER being a success for the Guardians.

One more thng: realize that Webb, Davenport, Denholm, Abney and all the rest of the players not rostered are now essentially untreadeable.  No one will give you anything since they can't be added to anyone's 40 man until after the Rule 5 draft. 

So, there it is.  More later!

2024 Rule 5 Draft - Part 5 - It's Sunday Night and I'm Getting Nervous

 Tuesday, November 19, 2024, 6 pm ET.

That's the time when ML teams must finalize their 40-man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 draft on Wednesday, December 11th. You don't have to have a full 40 man roster at that time but...

After that point no player from your own organization can be added to your 40 man roster until after December 11th.  Free agents can be signed and players on the 40-man can be removed (DFA'd or non-tendered). 

In fact, after November 19th and before December 12th, no prospect from ANY organization can be added to your 40 man roster if they were not on a 40-man roster at the time of the trade.

You CAN trade for guys on another 40 man roster and add them to your 40-man after November 19th.

You CAN sign free agents and add them to your 40-man roster after November 19th.

So, let's check out some guys and see if they can be added after November 19th.

• Bryan Lavastida - Assuming he is not signed by that point with another team, he is a free agent and could be added after November 19th.  If he is signed to a minor league deal before November 19th he would be rule 5 eligible.
• Dayan Frias - Unless he is added before Nov. 19th (not likely), he can't be added to the roster and he is Rule 5 eligible.  If we trade him after November 19th, he can't be added to the ML roster for the team we trade him to until after December 11th.
• Colt Emerson - If we trade for him after November 19th, we can't add him to the roster this off-season until after December 11th.  That's good because he is not Rule 5 eligible anyway.  

So this is why I am nervous.

This team has needs for the 2025 season AND they have too many prospects to protect on their 40 man without making trades.

So what will the Guardians do?  Let's break it down into 2 categories 

• Stupid
• DFA a prospect of some level (e.g., Gabriel Arias or Jonathon Rodriguez) from your 40 man roster just to add a different prospect
• Keep a guy on your 40 man roster who you intend to non-tender a few days later
• Trade a true prospect like Caminiero and get back a rule-5 eligible/non-factor/roster clogger like Tobias Myers when you don't even have enough 40 man roster space for your own prospects
• Trade a young MLer for a prospect another team doesn't intend to protect on their 40-man (see Nolan Jones for Juan Brito) causing you to have to use a 40-man roster spot FOR YEARS without any benefit to your ML team and creating, as I have called it before, a dead roster spot.
• Smart
• DFA guys like Gillaspie and Strzelecki and replace them with prospects
• DFA guys you intend to non-tender and beat the rush, opening more roster spots for prospects
• Trade a bunch of Rule 5-eligible prospects to get major league talent (like Luis Robert, Garrett Crochet and Andrew Benintendi to the CWS for Brito, Noel, JRod, Martinez, Cantillo, Nikhazy, Webb and Straw) that would help the ML team and clear roster spots for prospects who normally you wouldn't have room to protect (e.g., Denholm, Mace, Enright and maybe even Davenport unless the Guardians do some fancy dancing before November 19th)

In the 2024 off-season, no news is BAD news for the Guardians.  It means they will likely lose good prospects for, essentially, nothing in the RUle 5 draft or DFA process.  It also means they will likely not improve their ML team, instead counting on natural improvement to make the team better.

So, it's Sunday night and I am nervous that we will do things in the Stupid category and nothing of consequence in the Smart category.

2024 Rule 5 Draft - Part 4 - Recent History And What It May Teach Us.

 Every year is different.  Management changes, Rule 5 order changes, 40-man roster spots vary, team needs change, the number of viable Rule 5-eligible prospects changes as does the availability of different positions.

Each year is so different it is hard to make generalizations...but that never stopped me from looking for trends that then fuel predictions.  

Trends over the years have included:

• Normally, highly ranked prospects are protected by teams.  This is true even when a prospect is years away from the majors in their first rule 5 year (e.g., Brito, Noel, Valera, Martinez, Espino, etc.). In the rare cases where a highly-ranked prospect is left unprotected, it is due to poor projectability to be a major leaguer the next year.  
• Pitchers who can be used as relief pitchers but have starter potential and utility players with offensive skills are the most often drafted. An occasional power hitting corner infielder/outfielder is selected since they can be utilized as a DH.
• Given the 2 trends above, and the differences in team landscapes from year to year, the 'experts' guesses on the specific players who will be selected and the number of players projected to be selected always appear to be way off.
• In some cases, even the players that a particular team protects don't seem to make sense.  For example, Cade Smith last year and Tim Herrin two years ago seemed unlikely to be rostered over more highly-ranked prospects.  They were protected and, as they say, the rest is history.  
• What the experts don't know is what they don't know.  The general thought here is that there are red flags that those experts don't see that cause teams to protect players.  For example, if teams ask about a prospect during trade discussions of a veteran, this is a sign that at least one team believes in this prospect.  Also, a team may have internal metrics that say that a particular prospect has more potential than the industry, as a whole, thinks.

The bottom line here is that roster spots are like gold.  Teams shouldn't, and generally don't, waste a roster spot on a second or third tier prospect unless they truly believe in him. 

So, there's a little background.  

But what about this year?

In this post I want to look at 3 things from recent Rule 5 drafts:

1. The high profile players who were available
2. The players who were actually selected
3. The players who stuck with the team who drafted them in the Rule 5

So let's look back over the past 2 Major League Rule 5 drafts (all of them since the COVID season) and see what we have:

2022 

•  176 (out of 900) top 30 prospects were eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  Cleveland only had 2 top prospects, Joey Cantillo and Angel Martinez, who were Rule 5-eligible.  They obviously had a lot more prospects, but just 2 who were highly rated.
• 76 were added to 40-man rosters (Cleveland added Cantillo and Martinez)
• 34 players were also added to 40 man rosters who were not on teams' top 30 prospect lists (Cleveland added Brito and Herrin)
• 15 total players were selected in this draft.
• 13 pitchers (2 LHP), 1 OF/C (Blake Sabol), 1 1B (Ryan Noda)
• 2 players (#1 R5 pick Thad Ward (#15 for Boston), #5 R5 pick Mason Englert (#29 for Texas)) were top 30 prospects on the team they were drafted from
• Of the 15 players selected, 13 were picked from teams who protected at least one player NOT in their top 30 prospects. Nick Avila was selected by the White Sox from San Francisco, who rostered 4 prospects not in their top 30 in addition to 2 of 5 of their top 30 prospects who were R5-eligible.
• 8 of the 15 players drafted were returned to their original teams.  For the other 7:
• Thad Ward spent part of 2023 on the IL but was on the ML active roster enough to be kept by Washington who sent him back to AAA in 2024 where he started 28 games.
• Ryan Noda had a .734 OPS for Oakland in 2023 and was hurt most of 2024.
• Jose Hernandez spent all 2023 in the Pittsburgh bullpen, but a good part of 2024 in the minors
• Blake Sabol spent all of 2023 with San Francisco but much of 2024 in the minors
• Mason Englert spent most of 2023 in the Tigers bullpen and much of 2024 in the minors
• Kevin Kelly spent all of 2023 and 2024 in Tampa's bullpen.
• Wilking Rodriguez spent all of 2023 on the IL and was released in 2024 and re-signed to a minor league contract in November.

2023

• 152 (out of 900) top 30 prospects were eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  (Daniel Espino #8) and Dayan Frias (#15) were the only top 30 prospects the Guardians needed to protect}
• 52 were added to 40-man rosters (Daniel Espino was the only ranked (#8) prospect protected by Cleveland who also protected Cade Smith who was not a top 30 prospect for them.}
• 10 total players were selected in this draft.
• 8 pitchers (1 LHP), 1 INF (Nasim Nunez), 1 3B/1B (Deyvison De Los Santos, drafted by the Guardians)
• 4 players (De Los Santos, ARI #5; Matt Sauer NYY #25; Shane Drohan, Bos #19; Nunez Miami #16) were top 30 prospects on the team they were drafted from
• 3 of the 10 players drafted were returned to their original teams (including De Los Santos, who was traded at the deadline and is now Miami's #4 prospect).  For the other 7:
• Mitch Spence - spent the whole season with Oakland and started 24 games (35 overall)
• Anthony Molina - pitched the entire season for Colorado out of the bullpen
• Nasim Nunez - Nunez served all of 2024 as a utility infielder for Washington
• Ryan Fernandez pitched the entire season out of the bullpen for St. Louis
• Justin Slaten - pitched the entire season out of the bullpen for Boston
• Stephen Kolek - Kolek pitched the entire season out of the bullpen for San Diego
• Carson Coleman - Coleman spent the entire 2024 season on the 60-day IL for Texas and, as such, is still subject to being returned to the Yankees if he does not fulfill 90 days on Texas' active list in 2025.

SUMMARY

The trends are clear:

•  Over 150 top 30 prospects need to be protected against the Rule 5 each year.
• Two-thirds of these top prospects are not protected by teams against the Rule 5
• Even with the large number of top 30 prospects available to be drafted in the Rule 5, the majority of prospects selected in the Rule 5 are NOT top 30 prospects.  

So, as has been the case in the past:

• Teams draft who they think can play in the majors in some capacity right now
• Teams draft who they think have long term potential but, in most cases, that potential generally won't be recognized for years, at least based on their production in their first year after being selected in the Rule 5.
• None of the 'experts' have any idea who will be drafted or who will be successful IF they are drafted in the Rule 5.

So, in summary, we will know what we know when we know it but Cleveland should consider protecting all their pitching prospects (Aleman, Nikhazy, Webb, Davenport, Mace, Denholm) who are Rule 5 eligible, have starting pitching upside and are close to the majors.

2024 Rule 5 Draft - Part 3 - One of The Most Stupid Rules In Baseball And What To Expect Leading Up To The Nov. 19th Roster Freeze

ONE OF THE MOST STUPID RULES IN BASEBALL

 OK, you may ask why I would start a Rule 5 post with something about stupid rules.  

Well, in a nutshell, here it is. The 40 man rosters must be frozen in anticipation of the Rule 5 draft on November 19th at 6 pm ET.  The deadline for tendering players a 2025 contract (non-tender deadline) is November 22nd at 8 pm ET.  After November 19th you can no longer add players from your own organization to your 40 man until after the Rule 5.  Players can only be added from outside your organization and any players who have to be dropped from your roster have to be DFA'd.

When you set your roster for the Rule 5 draft shouldn't you have ALL the information necessary to do that?  I mean, you add a prospect and then a good player is non-tendered.  If your roster is full you could, conceivably, have to DFA a prospect you just added to protect him from the Rule 5, JUST to have room for the non-tender free agent.  

Since it is tougher to lose a player for good in the Rule 5 draft (has to stay on the drafting team's active roster for 90 days) compared to a DFA (waiver claims are forever, with no conditions for getting the player back), teams tend to be conservative in their roster freeze decisions to give them flexibility to sign free agents and minimize, to some extent, the risk of losing a prospect for good for little or no return.  This can lead to them leaving quality prospects unprotected, exposing them to the Rule 5.   

If you just pushed the non-tender date back to November 17th and moved the roster freeze date back to November 20th, teams would have all the information possible to make the best roster freeze decisions and that, in my opinion, would lead teams to protect more players from the Rule 5 as they already know what they are looking for in free agency and how many spots to save to fill those holes in their 2025 roster..

Seems elementary to me.

WHAT TO EXPECT BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER 19TH FROM THE GUARDIANS

The Guardians roster stands at 39 right now, meaning, in theory, they can only add one prospect to their roster to protect him from the Rule 5.   Since they have many more prospects who are truly in need of protecting, here is what you can expect

• Unless there is a trade where we trade away mulitple players from our current roster, nothing much will happen before November 19th.
• Since the Guardians are likely to protect Doug Nikhazy, Ryan Webb and Franco Aleman, expect at least 2 players to be traded or DFA'd by November 19th in order to keep the roster at 40 or less
• I think Aaron Davenport and maybe one relief prospect (Misiaszek, Enright, Kent or Mikolajchak) will also be added to the roster (like Cade Smith was last year and Tim Herrin the year before) as those guys will be considered by the Guardians to be both high risk of being drafted in the Rule 5 and high risk of being able to stick with the drafting team next year.
• Expect at least 1-2 surprise moves (e.g., DFAing Triston McKenzie) will be made to free up roster space for these additional prospects.
• Expect that ZERO position prospects will be added to the 40 man.  Simply, there is no room on the roster as the 2021 college pitcher-heavy draft has produced way too many intriguing pitching prospects, some of whom will have to be left unprotected, eligibile for this year's Rule 5 and ZERO compelling position player prospects who are Rule 5 eligible.
• There is an outside chance of a multi-prospect trade to clear roster space before the Rule 5 (see my proposal for a Robert-Benitendi-Crochet trade with the White Sox).  Any trade of this type made after the roster freeze will just be ill-timed so the pressure of the Rule 5 might prompt the Guardians to fill a ML hole with several Rule 5-eligible prospects either currently on or needing to be added to the roster by November 19th.
• There is an even smaller chance that the Guardians will do a reverse Tobias Myer for Junior Caminero trade and trade a Rule 5 eligible prospect they can't protect to a team for a guy who is not yet Rule 5 eligible.  This, essentially, would be a Will Benson to Cincinnati trade where we got Justin Boyd and Andrew Hajjar back.  Given that trade's outcome, however, I doubt that we will see either a Tobias Myers or Will Benson-like trade.

OK, so that's it for right now.  More on the Rule 5 if other scenarios pop up between now and November 19th.

Looking Ahead To The 2025 Season -Part 2 - Building a New Roster To Go For It All in 2025/2026...and beyond.

 OK, so the World Series is now over and we have a new champion, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Guardians have 2 Gold Glovers (Gimenez and Kwan),  one Fielding Bible Pitcher of the year winner (Bibee)) and 2 Silver Sluggers Finalists (Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor)

The end of the MLB playing season signals the official start of the off-season.  Most fans agree we need starting pitching and an impact bat in the OF.  So do we handle that through free agency or through trades or, possibly, both?

I would like to propose some transactions for the off-season:

1. Re-sign Shane Bieber to a 2-year deal with a 3rd year option. ($15 MM, $23 MM, club option for 3rd year @ $23 MM with a $2 MM buyout)

2. Re-sign Matthew Boyd to a 2-year deal ($22 MM)

3. Look into signing 1-3 top of the 2nd tier free agents (see below)

4. Make the following trades:

• Trade 1 - To Cleveland: Luis Robert and Garrett Crochet; To Chicago: Juan Brito (Cleveland's #8 prospect), Jhonkensy Noel, Jonathon Rodriguez (#12), Franco Aleman (#30), Doug Nikhazy (#24), Ryan Webb (#27), Myles Straw plus $5 million.
• Trade 2 - To Cleveland: Brent Rooker and Myles Naylor (Oakland #15).  To Oakland: Angel Genao (#4), Joey Cantillo (#15), Angel Martinez, Nick Sandlin
• Trade 3 - To Cleveland: Colt Emerson (Seattle #1), Taylor Saucedo; To Seattle: Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor, Myles Naylor (Oakland's #15).
• Trade 4: To Cleveland: Drew Romo; To Colorado: Jake Fox (Cleveland's #25 prospect), Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie, Will Brennan and $3 Million.

5. Add the following players to the 40-man roster in anticipation of the Rule 5 draft

• Bryan Lavastida
• Tommy Mace
• Lenny Torres Jr.
• Aaron Davenport
• Trenton Denholm
• Nic Enright
• Alaska Abney

5. DFA or Trade IF you need roster sports but, for now, still on the 40 man

• Connor Gillaspie
• Peter Strzelecki
• Gabriel Arias

6. Guys to think about trading before the roster freeze to avoid losing them in the Rule 5 (not a huge priority as I don't think either of these guys, or others eligible for the Rule 5 this year, would stick on a ML roster at the beginning of 2025).

• Allan Hernandez
• Milan Tolentino

New top 30 prospects

1. Colt Emerson
2. Chase DeLauter
3. Travis Bazzana
4. Jaison Chourio
5. CJ Kayfus
6. Ralphy Valesquez
7. Welbyn Francisca
8. Braylon Doughty
9. Joey Oakie
10. Andrew Walters
11. Daniel Espino
12. Jacob Cozart
13. Cooper Ingle
14. Robert Arias
15. Chase Mobley
16. Parker Messick
17. Drew Romo
18. George Valera
19. Jackson Humphries
20. Cameron Sullivan
21. Matt Wilkinson
22. Austin Peterson
23. Alex Mooney
24. Khalil Watson
25. Aaron Davenport
26. Nick Enright
27. Trenton Denholm
28. Bryan Lavastida
29. Tommy Mace
30. Lenny Torres, Jr.

New 40-man roster for Nov. roster freeze (39)

Pitchers (25, 22 if only count non-60 Day DL guys) (SP in bold, 26 Man roster in red)

1. Pedro Avila (no options remaining)
2. Alaska Abney
3. Shane Bieber (60-day DL)
4. Tanner Bibee
5. Matthew Boyd (L)
6. Emmanuel Clase
7. Garrett Crochet (L)
8. Aaron Davenport
9. Trenton Denholm
10. Nic Enright
11. Hunter Gaddis
12. Connor Gillaspie
13. Sam Hentges (L, 60 day DL) (no options remaining)
14. Tim Herrin (L)
15. Ben Lively (no options remaining)
16. Tommy Mace
17. Eli Morgan
18. Erik Sabrowski (L)
19. Taylor Saucedo (L)
20. Cade Smith
21. Peter Srzelecki (no options remaining)
22. Trevor Stephan (60 day DL)
23. Lenny Torres, Jr.
24. Andrew Walters
25. Gavin Williams

Catchers (3)

1. Bryan Lavastida
2. Drew Romo
3. Austin Hedges

Infielders (4)

1. Andres Gimenez
2. Kyle Manzardo
3. Jose Ramirez
4. Brayan Rocchio

Outfielders (4)

1. Steven Kwan
2. Luis Robert
3. Lane Thomas
4. George Valera

Utility (3)

1. Tyler Freeman
2. Daniel Schneeman
3. Gabriel Arias (no options remaining)

Designated Hitter (2)

1. Brent Rooker
2. David Fry (60 day DL)

To Be Determined (1-3 free agents on multiyear deals, if necessary)

1. LHH corner outfielder with power (Alex Verdugo or DeLauter, if he is ready) - Freeman to minors
2. SS/2B/3B veteran with power (like Paul DeJong) - Schneeman to minors
3. SP/RP Swingman (poor man's Nick Martinez, now that Martinez has a QO) - Walters to minor
4. Veteran C with decent offensive skills (e.g., Travis D'Arnaud)

Minor League Signees

• Major league quality backup catcher to stash at AAA
• Veteran relief pitchers with better quality than we did in 2024 (assuming we lose Strzelecki), e.g., Enyel De Los Santos comes to mind and even bringing Carrasco back on a minor league deal.
• Veteran utility infielders
• Outfielders (not necessarily veterans but could be) with speed who can play defense.  Tony Kemp comes to mind or maybe a 6-year MiLB free agent or two.
• 1-2 starting pitchers who can't get ML deal and are forced to settle for a minor league deal (like Carrasco in 2024)

Looking Ahead To the 2025 Season - Part 1 - Roster Management - Who Is Gone, Who Might Be Gone and Why

 OK, so the Guardians' season is over.  Some people will want to lament or even be angry over the loss to the Yankees.

I get it, although I think looking backward doesn't help you find your path going forward.  

So, in this first post, let's look at our current roster and see who should/will/might be gone next year.  It is a good time for this as the November roster freeze is coming, and we have lots of interesting prospects who need to be protected this winter.

WHO SHOULD BE GONE...AND WHY

Triston McKenzie 

This, to me, is the easiest of decisions.  McKenzie was an up-and-coming pitching prospect who looked like a sure-fire #3 starter with significant upside over that.   He then had a variety of injuries, leading to the penultimate elbow injury in 2023.  He chose not to have surgery and just rehabilitate the elbow, leading to a disastrous 2024 where he was one of the absolute worst starting pitchers in the majors and wasn't much better at AAA Columbus.  Triston has chosen his path (non-surgical/rehab) and it has turned out badly for him.   At this point, even if he chooses surgery, he is not worth keeping, even at a relatively small arbitration cost.  I would try like heck to trade him and get what you can for him and, if that doesn't work, non-tender him.  Until he has that surgery, I don't believe he will ever come close to reaching his potential or even be a viable #5 starter.  Alternatively, they could keep him if they think they could convert him to a leverage reliever.

Nick Sandlin

Look, Sandlin is not a bad pitcher.  He is a solid middle man.  But we have relief prospects on the way (or here, in Walters and Sabrowski) who can step in and offer more long-term upside and versatility than Sandlin.  

Don't get me wrong.  I think Sandlin could bring a solid return in a trade, maybe in a salary eat like the Barlow - De Los Santos trade last year. But on this team you can only have 1-2 guys in relief who are not strikeout pitchers and those spots are already taken by Eli Morgan and Pedro Avila.

Logan Allen

I love what Allen has done.  He has busted his rear for Cleveland but his performance in Columbus after his demotion was very disappointing.  It looks more and more like he is a flash in the pan or, at best, a #5 starter.  Unless you send him to the bullpen and get his stuff to play up there, the Guardians have Webb, Nikhazy, Messick, Peterson, Mace, Davenport and Denholm who could, at various points in 2025, become a 5th starter as good or better (due to less familiarity by our opponents) than Allen.  Not that Logan Allen is a bad baseball player.  It's just he's not a good one.  That being said, he can be an innings eater SP on a rebuilding team and will be cheap this year so he has trade value.  So I think he is tendered a contract if he makes it to November but my hope is that they trade him before the roster freeze.

Connor Gillaspie

This is an easy one.  He is currently just a roster placeholder and I suspect he will be a November roster freezed casualty.  It is very possible that he clears waivers and we outright him to Columbus

Peter Strzelecki

Like Gillaspie, he is just a roster placeholder for November.  Unlike Gillaspie, I doubt Strzelecki clears waivers but, if he does and we can outright him, I would like to keep him on the Columbus roster if he survives the Rule 5.

Will Brennan

I just don't see him improving at all. When he came back from Columbus he was a slap hitter and may have fooled some that he was becoming a productive player.  But I don't see it.  His lack of progress really makes him a backup player but without the mentality of a veteran backup.  He either goes in a trade or is DFA'd before the November freeze.

Myles Straw

I think they will continue to actively try to trade Myles Straw.  When I say 'continue', I think it is pretty obvious that they have tried to trade him and I see him being traded as part of a larger deal where they include money to cover most of his 2025 salary.  For a rebuilding team like the White Sox, getting Straw essentially for free might be enticing although the Guardians will want to allow that as part of a larger deal where they get what they want.

THOSE WHO MIGHT BE GONE...AND WHY...AND FOR WHO

Josh Naylor

The math has been told over and over again this year.

• Naylor will make over $12 MM a year in his last year of arbitration
• The rumors are that the Guardians aren't willing to make him a fat, long-term offer and that Naylor isn't willing to take a team discount just to stay in Cleveland (like Ramirez did)
• Kyle Manzardo is ready to step in at 1B and Jhonkensy Noel and David Fry can also play there with others (maybe Juan Brito and, down the road, CJ Kayfus) in the wings.

On the other side of that is Josh Naylor's performance

• He had 30+ HRs and 100+ RBI and was the best available protection for Ramirez in the batting order in 2024. 
• He played almost every day and, truth be told, would have played every day if allowed to
• He accomplished all that while being what I will call EXCESSIVELY hurt this year, causing him to not be able to keep up with his conditioning and put on A LOT of weight.  No doubt he would have performed better in the post-season had he not had all those physical challenges.

Plus, his brother is the Guardians' starting catcher.  

If we trade him it is because we can cash in for him.   Unfortunately, some of the things I have heard are:

• Advanced metrics are not as favorable as his raw HR and RBI numbers
• People think we will have to throw in a prospect to be able to trade him for a mid-rotation SP with some control. In fact, the deals I have seen proposed look more like deadline deals if we are our of the race in July 2025.
• David Fry's elbow may make it so he can only DH in 2025 if he has to have surgery (similar to Ohtani in 2024)

All of these are confusing to me but one thing is clear: NAYLOR IS WORTH MORE TO THE GUARDIANS THAN A MID-ROTATION STARTING PITCHER.

Although the Guardians don't hold onto guys like Naylor who enter their walk year unsigned, and I don't think they want to sign him to an extension until they see how he comes out of his off-season conditioning, I say that you keep Naylor UNLESS you get overwhelmed with an offer that brings you a top of rotation SP or a proven power-hitting OFer with a few years of control.  

It's unfortunate that our FO can't swing a good deal when they have a lot to offer, but that is our reality.  To way that we are going to trade Josh Naylor just because we can is not enough.  This is an arithmetic equation.  What comes in has to be > or = to what goes out or our team is weaker next year, overall.  You can disagree but that is my take.

James Karinchak

I think his personality quirks, his ability to fall apart at any given moment and the possibility that his previous success was due to, how can I say this, some manipulation of the baseball that is no longer allowed, makes him vulnerable.  Still, however, I hope they don't just dump him in a DFA move or do another horrible Scott Barlow-like trade with him.  But it is possible, given all the peripheral issues with Karinchak, that they just do an addition by subtraction move with him.  That would be throwing the baby out with the bathwater, especially given the overuse of our bullpen in 2024.  So, I hope we just keep him and see what he brings next spring.  Truthfully, except for Aleman, we have no one in the minors with the upside of Karinchak if we choose to start him at Columbus next year.

Gabriel Arias

Don't be surprised to see him as part of a large deal this fall/winter.  Aside from that I think we go into ST with him next year.  DFAing him seems too easy and only a way to show our disappointment in his development.  Again, addition by subtraction here seems unwarranted.  Now, if he is the same, old Arias next spring, he gets DFA'd after ST.

OVERALL SUMMARY OF ROSTER MANAGEMENT

The above players represent the ones who I think the Guardians will likely dangle in trades or simply non-tender or DFA.  Obviously, anyone on the roster with the exception of Bibee, Williams, Lively, Clase, Ramirez, Kwan, Gimenz and Smith is a possible tradeable asset from the less likely Gaddis, Herrin, Walters, Sabrowski, Manzardo, Fry, Espino, Avila, Cantillo, Rocchio and Bo Naylor to the more tradeable assets like Freeman, Noel, JRod, Valera, Schneeman, Brito, Morgan or any Rule 5-eligible guy who needs to be added this winter.  I do think they will focus on trading major leaguers or ML ready guys who have to be rostered this winter.  I don't think you will see any of the lower level minor leaguers like Genao traded as most teams want ML-ready players and the Guardians have a whole slew of them on the 40-man and guys who will need to be added to the 40-man this winter who are close to, if not ML ready by ST 2025.  I also don't think you will see DeLauter traded as teams would be trying to buy low on him and the Guardians would not be able to get good value for him, at least what I believe is his value.

Time will tell.  I won't hold my breath that there is a big trade but my next post will list a couple that I think are doable.

Antonetti/Vogt 2024 Season Wrap-Up Press Conference - My thoughts

 The parable about the 3 blind men and the elephant comes to mind when I think of all the summaries of this zoom call press conference that I have heard.

So, to add another take, here goes:

1. George Valera gets his 4th option year. Now, when some people come up with a prediction like this they bring up an old tweet and say, in their own way, "I told you so".  I won't do that, posting, instead, to this blog, that nobody reads anyway, right?

Two details from Antonetti's comments on this topic:

• The Guardians didn't have to apply for Valera to get the extra option year
• Valera was granted, by MLB, an extra option year as Antonetti put it "based on his history and minor league performance.

This decision by MLB brings hope that Noel (in 2025) could have a 4th option and Brito (in 2026) could get a 4th option a year later as he has one left that he will likely use sometime in 2025.

(3) Most interesting to me was Antonetti's comments on the off-season outlook

• He said that how the Guardians will do in 2025 will be dependent on the progress of the guys who are already here
• The team will try to balance that with acquisitions when felt that those acquisitions can help them reach their goal of winning the WS.

(4) Vogt said that the team wants its players to have more resources going forward, starting this off-season.  Not sure what that means but the tone implies that they MIGHT want the players to take advantage of places like Driveline and hitting schools to improve their performance.  It also could include things like more access to analytics and more interaction with the coaching staff over the winter.

(5) As far as the injured ML pitchers, Antonetti commented (I have summarized and also projected timelines based on his comments, so these are not his exact words)

• Beiber's timeline is somewhere between next April and September but that his progress, so far, makes it look like the shorter end (June?).
• Stephan is on about the same timeline although it is more likely that he could be back in April or May as relievers tend to have a quicker recovery from TJ surgery as they don't have to have the innings buildup SP do.
• Hentges is out for the entire 2025 season.
• Karinchak will be ready for 2025 spring training and has one minor league option left (per Fangraphs)

(6) Antonetti said they will continue to support Bieber's rehab and CA went to extremes to say what Bieber has meant to the organization in his time here.  Some might take that as a farewell knowing they can't meet his asking price.  I tend to take that as him saying how important they think he would be to their future.  He said that the team told Bieber how much they would love to have him back and Bieber was interested.  But every team and every free agent says that stuff around this time of year, sooooo...

(7)  Among renovations this winter the clubhouse will have a massive renovation with more room and state of the art facilities for the players.

(8) Vogt sounded optimistic about Rocchio and Bo Naylor in terms of how much progress they have made this year but hard to tell if that is real enthusiasm for having those players be part of 2025 and beyond or just company speak to camouflage their intent to upgrade at SS and C in the off-season.

(8) Vogt said he wouldn't change a decision he made in the post-season and that they had planned for every scenario in the post-season with the coaching staff, analytics and others having a voice, meaning that the process, based on analytics, is what will determine things going forward.  This, to me, as a science guy, is good news.  Consistency tends to bring good results because everyone knows what is expected of them.  I think, although we might not agreed with all of his principles, is something Francona should have taught all of us.

(9 Vogt said how important Craig Albernaz was to the team this year.  I would be worried because Albie is being interviewed for managerial jobs but I think with what Vogt has learned from him this this year, Albernaz is a nice to have for the 2025 coaching staff but not, like he was in 2024, a must have.

(10) They are partnering with Gimenez this off-season to make his offense more consistent. This, to me, could mean they are having him attending a hitting school somewhere. Antonetti fell short of saying Gimenez was a cornerstone of this team which, to me, is interesting, because sliding him over to SS, IMO, makes him a cornerstone.  

(11) Regarding starting pitching and pitching in general Antonetti stressed they have a good young core of pitchers in the majors but that the also have a number of young pitchers "on the cusp" of helping the ML team.  I think this speaks volumes for guys like Aleman, Webb, Nikhazy, Davenport, Denholm, Messick, Peterson and Mace as well as relievers like Enright, Misiaszek and Mikolajchak and others for the bullpen.  He did say they value veteran SP implying that they would look at FAs where they could (Bieber, Boyd, Cobb, other value guys) but that they would also consider going with the young guys who, as he said, are "on the cusp".  I think this may spell them moving on from McKenzie and Allen to add 2021 draftess to the roster this winter to avoid losing them in the Rule 5.

So there are my impressions.  Don't know if I am just another blind man examining the elephant.  I guess we will see.