How to Fix Baseball - Part 7 - UPDATE

With the signing of Kyle Tucker by the Dodgers, what was a low rumbling among fans for changes in the game has now become a loud roar.

Caps, floors, deferrals, cheap owners, rich owners ruining baseball.  Conversation on all these topics has ramped up in the last few days. 

I wrote a 6-part series last month on how to fix baseball in the new CBA, an agreement will be negotiated after the 2026 season. 

This article summarizes those articles and, prompted by opinions and suggestions I have read on how to fix baseball, provides more details than my previous 6 articles did.  So let's dive in.

NOTE: I may be updating this document as more information and ideas become available.

SALARY CAP

I wanted to start here because this is the shortest discussion.  It is a non-starter with the MLBPA, IMO. While it wouldn't be hard to get 2/3 of the owners to vote for some version of a cap (say, $275 million), I think it is safe to say the players won't allow this to go through unless they get huge concessions in other areas that they won't get.  While certain provisions (e.g., being able to exceed the cap if you are extending your own players) might make a cap more palatable to the MLBPA, I just see a cap as a non-starter.  

So, if you can't stop overspending let's find ways to catastrophically penalize teams that do overspend.

• Set the luxury tax threshold at $275 million for the 2027 season (for 2026 it is set at $244 million). Teams exceeding the threshold will:
• be charged 100% of the excess in the first violation and $200% of the excess for exceeding the threshold 2 or more years in a 3 year period.
• lose their top draft pick for the next year if they exceed the threshold and their top 5 draft picks for the next year if they exceed the threshold 2 or more years in a 3 year period.
• not be able to sign a QO free agent for the next season after their last occurrence of exceeding the threshold.
• not be able to sign an international professional free agent for any more than a $5 million AAV for the year after they exceed the threshold.
• not be allowed to sign any FA for more than $10 million AAV in the next season if they exceed the threshold for 2 years in a 3 year period
• Draft pick penalties that come from exceeding this threshold will not be minimized due to other penalties for the same team related to draft picks (e.g., signing a QO player).  Rather, the penalties would be imposed in subsequent years so that the full weight of the penalty would be felt.  For example, a team losing their 2nd and 5th picks in the draft could not be changed to them losing their 3rd and 6th picks in that draft because they have another penalty.  One of the penalties would be assessed in the subsequent year so that the full weight of the penalties would be realized.

• AAV 
• AAV will be all inclusive without any deferrals or other mechanisms that have previously been allowed to lower (or not raise) AAV.  
• AAV for foreign professional free agents will include the posting fee to their foreign club

SALARY FLOOR

• A salary floor will be set at $120 million for the 2027 season and rise by $10 million a year for the life of the next CBA, [NOTE: The goal here is avoid teams not spending money on payroll. It is NOT to cause teams to overpay meh FAs or AAAA players just to reach the floor. The intent is for encourage them to sign their own players to extensions and sign quality free agents, if desired, to meet the floor]
• Other measures for amateur player acquisition will be put in place (see below) to ensure that teams spend on acquisition of the best prospects they can to help with competitive balance.  

NOTE: Some of this is in opposition to MLBPA's position which is to give more players more money, regardless of a player's limited ability or usefulness to make a franchise more competitive.  A cornerstone of my proposal if for teams to use some of their floor to extend their own players and bring in free agents who they feel would benefit their competitiveness.  At the same time, teams need to be allowed to fill their 26- and 40-man rosters with prospects who they feel can help them win now but, moreso, in the future instead of clogging rosters with meh FAs or AAAA players just to get over the salary floor. Under the PLAYERS GETTING MORE REVENUE section below I suggest that the minimum salary for players be raised to $2 million for first year players and $2.5 million for 2nd year players.  Those players would realize, on average, almost $2.5 million in increase earnings over their first two years in the majors compared to the present system.

INTERNATIONAL AMATEUR DRAFT

• An international draft would replace the January 15th signing period.  The goal of this draft would be to distribute the better, eligible talent to the clubs with bad records in the previous major league season (similar to the Rule 4 draft) AND eliminate teams reaching 'agreements' with players years before those players are eligible and eliminate the shadiness of interactions with local trainers, etc.
• The draft will consist of 5 rounds with the order being the inverse of standings for the previous year. NDFA can be signed after the 5 rounds for $10,000 or less.
• MLB will create a bonus pool for each club just like they do for the Rule 4 draft.
• MLB will have a combine similar to what they do for the Rule 4 draft for the top 250 players and will be involved in ranking those players before the draft for the benefit of fans and, to a lesser extent, teams.
• Owners of revenue receivers must spend >90% of their bonus pool the first year of the new CBA going up to 95% in subsequent years, not counting the money spent on NDFAs.  The trading of international free agent bonus pool money will no longer be allowed.

CHANGES TO THE RULE 4 DRAFT

• Maintain most of the current rules for draft pick compensation but weave in a few new rules and the luxury threshold penalties described above
• Change the construction of a draft order as follows.  
• 2 teams with the worst records flip a coin to see who drafts first and second in the first round
• The rest of the first round and all subsequent regular rounds will be ordered as follows:
• Non-playoff, teams that receive picks in the competitive balance round draft first in order of decreasing payroll
• Non-playoff teams who are not revenue payors or receivers draft next, again in order of decreasing payroll
• Non-playoff teams who are revenue payors draft next in order of dcreasing payroll
• Playoff teams that receive picks in the competitive balance round in order of decreasing payroll
• Playoff teams who are not revenue payors or receivers draft next, again in order of decreasing payroll
• Playoff teams who are revenue payors pick in the order of decreasing payroll.
• Competitive balance picks and draft compensation pick rules will continue as is.
• As indicated above under SALARY CAP, change rules on draft pick compensation where a team is already penalized in a particular year and a second (or more) penalty in the same year would result in a lesser penalty.  Instead, have the penalties spill over to the next year(s) so the force of the penalty would be the same for each offense, just in the next year(s).
• To spur owners of small market, limited resource franchises to spend money on development, give every revenue receiver and the worst 2 teams, record wise, in baseball the previous year an extra $5 million in their bonus pool.  These teams must spend between 99-104.99% of their bonus pool or suffer a $10 million penalty
• Eliminate the trading of draft choices before the 11th round but allow up to 3 draft choices (in rounds 11-20) per team per year to be traded.  

CHANGES TO THE RULE 5 DRAFT

• The major league rule 5 draft will be discontinued
• The minor league rule 5 draft will continue as before from the same pool of players as previous minor league rule 5 drafts
• See the CHANGES IN PLAYER CONTROL section below for specifics to address what the ML R5 was supposed to address, but failed and that international players can be signed when they are chronologically, the age and physical development of high school sophomores.

NOTE: The goal here is to allow teams time to develop their players without having to roster some of the best ones long before they are major league ready. My data says the ML R5 is a failure but the minor league R5 draft has some benefits in limiting the number of minor league players a team can hoard.  This also will allow teams to sign minor league free agents after the end of a season without having to worry about losing them in the subsequent R5 draft. Finally, it will free up 40-man roster spots for players who can actually help a team in the next competitive year instead of having a roster spot wasted for 2-3 years on a player who is not close to being major league-ready.

CHANGES TO PLAYER CONTROL

• Players acquired who were not previously in organized professional leagues (domestic or foreign) can be controlled by teams per the following, based on their age when signed, before they can become minor league free agents:
• Players 16 or 17 years old for 7 full seasons
• Players 18 or 19 years old for 6 full seasons
• Players 20 or 21 years old for 5 full seasons
• Players 22 or 23 years old for 4 full seasons
• Players 24 or older for 3 full seasons

PLAYERS GETTING MORE REVENUE

• Increase the minimum wage to $2 million for first year players and $2.5 million in their second year.
• Continue the arbitration system as is.
• Mandate that teams spend 90% of shared revenues on payroll + amateur player acquisition costs
• Allow forensic accounting to make sure that the split of shared revenues is actually going to player salaries and acquisition costs.  Don't let teams participate in revenue sharing unless they can show that they meet these reinvestment metrics.

A Dozen Guardians Prospects Whose 2026 Seasons Are Crucial to the Future of the Franchise

 This is quite the serious and dramatic title to an article about the Guardians farm system.  But, unlike in other years, I see the heart of this farm system and young major leaguers being at the crossroads of their careers...even if those careers have not started yet!  Will they be a big part of the future or only so-so players, utility guys or total failures. So let's dive in.

12. Cooper Ingle - I don't see Ingle as being that important to the future of the Guardians.  He is a nice-to-have more than a must-have.  Still, a catcher who can slash .260/.330/.380 AND can also play defense and handle a pitching staff is not that easy to find.  Not saying Ingle is that guy but, in our farm system, he is the ONLY catching prospect of any note.  So he HAS to succeed and there is some urgency for him to become a productive major leaguer, and soon, and help take the pressure off the Guardians to buy or trade for a catcher.

11. Angel Martinez - Although hanging comps on guys puts more pressure on them, I see Martinez having a path similar to that of Jose Ramirez.  Now, the thing that sets Ramirez apart is his drive to be the best.  That drive took him from being a future utility guy or complementary player to being arguably, when all is said on done, of being the GOAT of this franchise.  While being compared to Ramirez is a losing proposition for almost any prospect, I think there are a lot of similarities there.  He just needs the opportunity to grow into the star I think he can be.  If you stick him at 2B or CF and live with the growing pains, he will pay huge dividends.  But, for Martinez, the key is for him to make substantial progress this year, becoming an invaluable complementary player.  If he flounders this year the Guardians may give up on him, which I think would be a huge mistake.  So Martinez needs to NOT give them a chance to make that mistake by having a great 2026.  

10. George Valera - While Valera is not a crucial part of the team's future right now, he COULD be.  As he is out of options, he will have to impress the Guardians out of the gate and, in so doing, cement his spot on the ML team AND his importance to this team in the future, especially if Kwan won't sign an extension.  If he starts slow, he might become another lost-for-nothing guy like Noel, Reyes and Gonzalez were.

9. Franco Aleman - You may say that RHRP are a dime-a-dozen in the majors.  True that, but cheap, high leverage RP are more like $120 million a dozen.  When you see the Guardians try to build their bullpen with guys like Brogdon and Holderman, you become immediately aware of the advantages of having talented, cheap and controllable RPs.  Add to this that homegrown guys are always more desirable and you can see why having Aleman healthy and productive at the ML level really keeps cost down while keeping quality high in the BP, both things a small market team needs.  People may not see how important Aleman is but I feel he is one of the most important pieces in our BP going forward, along with Andrew Walters...

8. Angel Genao - While still a year or two away, Genao could be the future of the middle infield in Cleveland.  He was injured last year and, as a result, never really got going.  While he is likely not to impact the ML team in 2026, he could at some point in 2027 and that might be crucial to this team after that.  How he plays this year will go a long way to determine if he is just Brayan Rocchio Part Deux or if he is much more.  The latter would put us in good shape at SS for years to come.   With Bazzana and Brito at 2B, having a SS prospect with great range who can hit as well as field is crucial.

7. Andrew Walters - Look, the Guardians invested a high draft choice in Walters.  That means that they think he is at least a key 8th inning RP, maybe even closer material.  Having him come through, along with someone like Aleman, allows the Guardians to have a quality AND cheap bullpen and be able to invest at other positions-of-need.  Having 6 years of Walters at the level he was projected when drafted is necessary to stop the revolving door of AAAA RP we see every year.

6. Juan Brito - Brito will be out of options after 2026.  He will have one year to make his presence felt in the majors. His defense is questionable at second base (and even THAT is giving it the benefit of the doubt), his speed is average at best and his major positive trait is that he can take a walk.  In fact, he is the best in the Guardians system at passive aggressiveness.  By that I mean that he attacks balls in the zone and spits on bad pitches.  He needs to make his mark felt in 2026 or Clevleand might have no choice but to DFA him after the upcoming season...although that might not happen if there is a work stoppage.  Still, his OB skills and doubles power would play well if the rest of his game doesn't drain the value of those hitting traits.

5. Jace Laviolette - Look, there are 'experts' who will tell you he is toast.  There are experts that will tell you he is salvageable but it can't be done in the Guardians' system as they can't develop hitters.  You won't hear many people tell you he is the guy who was the early favorite to go 1-1 in 2025.  Cleveland took a HUGE gamble that he will return to his 2024 form.  If he doesn't, they will have wasted a first round draft pick and given their recent drafts, that can't happen.  No Cleveland minor league prospect has more to prove than Laviolette.  

4. Kal Stephen - People just don't realize how important Stephen is.  The Guardians had a great 2021 draft, picking up a bunch of college pitchers including Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee.  In 2022 they continued that trend early in the draft by drafting Justin Campbell and Parker Messick.  Unfortunately, they went away from that trend in 2023, 2024 and 2025, not picking a single college pitcher of note.  As a result, the farm system is devoid of any top line pitching prospecs except for Stephen. The Guardians got Stephen from Toronto for Shane Bieber.  While Bieber meant everything to Toronto, Stephen actually means more to Cleveland.  He came to Cleveland with a shoulder impingement and pitched like crap after the trade.  As he is the only top level pitching prospect in the entire organization (I don't count HS guys in that category until they master AA) he HAS to succeed.  If his injury lingers, if he fails, the Guardians will have a huge gap in their farm system, without a single pitching prospect who can help them before Jose Ramirez's contract runs out.  To throw salt in that wound, the Guardians drafted Jacob Cozart, a college catcher with the upside of a ML backup catcher, in the second round when they could have had Stephen.  Ouch!

3. Jaisson Chourio - Like Genao, he was hurt a lot of last year.  He is hitting well in winter ball but will he burn out there or will it propel him into a great 2026. In the best world he turns into the prospect his brother Jackson was (and is). Make no mistake, Chourio needs to have a breakout year again in 2026.  If he turns into just an above average prospect, this will not be effective at moving the needle of the Guardians future. He has to be great and it has to start this year as he is Rule 5 eligible after 2926. If he is languishing in A+ at the end of 2026 they WILL roster him but he will be on a path that likely will result in him running out of options before he reaches his potential.  For a team like Cleveland, that has happened too much in the past and, with Chourio, it can't happen again.

2. Chase DeLauter - We all THINK he is going to be an above-average ML player. I even dream on him being the next Grady Sizemore.  But he has to stay healthy because he is a cornerstone of this franchise and, given that I believe a salary floor is coming in the next CBA, he is a potential extension candidate.  Unless he gets hurt in St (or before) he is likely to open the season in the Guardians starting lineup.  I don't think he will EVER play himself off the roster.  He is simply that good.  The key for him and an important key in the near future of this franchise is whether he can stay healthy and play at 100% pace.  As the Guardians avoided having him take the extra base or slide last season, that is still to be seen

1. Travis Bazzana - I have followed Bazzana since the 2024 college season began. He looked like the exact player I wanted.  Solid, baseball field rat, with great speed, good power and a great batting eye.  In March of his draft year, while playing in a mid-week non-conference game,  he got hit on the hand with a pitch and left the stadium with it wrapped. He only missed a couple of games and was back in the lineup by the weekend.  But after that, his season started to spiral.  People said that it was just the tougher play in the PAC.  But he didn't look the same.  When he turned pro he was overpaowered by pitches and rolled over or popped up to the 3rd baseman a frightening number of pitches.  He also swung and missed A LOT.  2026 brought more of the same. with fans who didn't want to believe that he could be anything less than a franchise icon failing to see his flaws and deluding themselves that it had to oblique injury (followed by another) that were the cause of his struggles.  The fact is, Bazzana has not been good since February of 2024.  This season is so important for him to establish himself that I cannot overstate that importance.  It doesn't help that Bazzana will play for Austrailia in the WBC.  Given his lack of success in the minors in '24 and '25, there is a good chance he will get eaten alive by the pitchers in that tournament, with all the flaws I have seen in two years causing him to lose confidence, if he hasn't already lost it.  Don't be deceived. 2026 IS the make-or-break year in Travis Bazzana's career.  This year will tell if his career track is more like Chase Utley's or Mikey Moniak's.  And that difference will mean a great deal to the future of the Cleveland Guardians franchise.

There you have it.  Some people look at our farm system through rose-colored glasses and see a bright future. I look at that same farm system and see that same future with the caveat being if all 12 of these guys DON'T succeed at a good level, this franchise could be toast for the next decade.  So, let's keep our fingers crossed for this to happen. Remember, this is NOT all the prospects that Cleveland has so not all of their top prospects have to have the level of success I am asking of these 12.  But the 12 I mentioned? They better be successful if we want to be competitive in the second half of the 2020s and beyond.

A Quick Look at Where The Guardians Roster Is Heading Into 2026 - Part 3 - Who Should Be Added To/Dumped From The Current Roster

 We are now starting the beefing up and weeding out process for our roster.  So let's dive in:

WHO SHOULD WE BE ADDING?

 Marcell Ozuna - This, like many others, is dependent on the cost.  Ozuna is truly a DH but is a RHH with proven production.  He is the jolt this lineup needs and the protection that will help maximize Jose Ramirez's production.  Plus, he moves Manzardo out of the #4 hole into the #5 or 6 slot, which would be more appropriate to his skill set.

Luis Robert Jr. - The only trade on my list, I doubt this gets done as the White Sox are positioning themselves for a better result in 2026 AND they appear to hate trading fairly with the Guardians. Still, I don't feel like DeLauter can hold up in CF (picture a Mr. Glass version of Grady Sizemore).  Robert Jr. might also be a clubhouse distraction but a lineup of Kwan, DeLauter, Ramirez, Ozuna, Robert Jr., Manzardo, Naylor, Martinez (2B) and Rocchio would look pretty good compared to the last 2 years. 

Veteran FA SP - This is just a placeholder as the Guardians need depth.  I think it was Zach Meisel who posted that the Guardians had used an average of 12.5 SP per season for the last 4 years.  We are not even close to that and I would like to see a rotation that has Cecconi @ #4 and Cantillo (out of options) @ #5.  So any of Miles Mikolas, Nestor Cortes, Zach Littell or Lucas Giolito, whoever is the cheap and gives us the best bang for our buck, is who I am targeting.  But, whoever it is, we need one more veteran SP.

WHO WE SHOULD BE REMOVING

Connor Brogdon - I know we can't trade Brogdon but, if we need the roster space, he is 1A of the guys who need to be DFA'd. With the signing of Armstrong and Avila and maybe adding a SP to push Logan Allen to RP and maybe Cecconi, too, and the guys at AAA (Espino, Walters and Aleman) we have enough RP depth.

Colin Holderman - 1B on my list of RP to get rid of if we need the roster space, Holderman was another bad decision by the FO.  Not that he and Brogdon would have been bad minor league FA signings but taking up a 40-man spot seems like a foolish waste of resources for a team that needs to be adding ML quality resources in the midst of a roster crunch. 

Gabriel Arias - Here is the first tradeable asset that we should remove from the roster (via trade only) IF and ONLY IF we need a roster spot.  Right now Arias, on my depth chart, is the backup SS and you can't, in January, dump your first option if something happens to Rocchio.

Nolan Jones - I see no role for Jones in 2026. If we go young we have enough guys to throw out in RF.  I just don't see a way for him to get PT unless he suddenly reverts back to 2023 form and I don't see that happening.  While it's great to have a bunch of guys in ST who compete for positions with the best man winning, (a) that never happens with the Guardians because they believe in spring desert mirages and (b) it, to me, is more important to have roster flexibility than to have competition, which is generally generated through MiLB free agent signings with invitations to ST than through redundant players on the 40-man.  So I could even see them, if the rules allow it, for them to DFA Jones this winter if someone who is a better fit comes along.

SUMMARY

So, like the extension candidates, the lists above are short.  Will the Guardians do anything? I am not sure. But I think there are some fits that make this team better and help keep their collective heads above water until the trade deadline.

A Quick Look at Where The Guardians Roster Is Heading Into 2026 - Part 2 - Who Should Be Extended

This is a short list and, therefore, a short post.

Steven Kwan - Although they could easily trade Kwan and I wouldn't be overly distraught...assuming they got a good return, I would rather they extend him.  That being said, if Kwan totally refuses to discuss an extension, he needs to be moved to the trade list immediately.  Again, Kwan is not THE guy but he is A guy in this lineup and, enough 'guys' does a lineup make.

Cade Smith - Relievers are really tricky as they have off years and get hurt.  However, I believe the Guardians need to set precedents and, frankly, we are looking at a salary floor in the next collective bargaining agreement and so getting Smith (and others) signed before then means they are signed before players have that leverage of knowing their extension might be necessary to push a team above the floor.  So, sign me up for a Cade Smith extension.  He has earning it so let's get a 5 year deal done with him.

Gavin Williams - Ditto for what I said about Smith.  The Bibee extension looked like a bad one until the end of last year so this is more of get some rotation stability signing that hope for proportionately better results with high salary signing.  

Jose Ramirez - OK, I know, we have him signed to an extension right now.  What my dream would be would be to extend his contract 3 more years @ $33 MM a year with some significant incentive clauses as he sets more and more club records and gets more national accolades.  This shows him that we care about him and reads into him saying that his next contract will NOT be a team friendly contract. Hey, no way do I think he will be worth $33 MM a year in those 3 years but keeping him through the end of his career is as important a business decision, long term, as competing longterm, IMO.  Anyone who has been outside Busch Stadium in St. Louis and has seen all those statues knows how important it is to keep Jose here for his entire career.  Plus, like the other guys above, it will help with the salary floor in those years.

That's it.  That's all I want from the Guardians for Christmas, these 4 extensions.

A Quick Look at Where The Guardians Roster Is Heading Into 2026 - Part 1 - Who Should Be Traded

 OK, time for an honest look at where the Guardians are in terms of their roster for 2026.  Poepl may not like these assessments, but they are my assessments, nonetheless.

IMPRESSIONS OF THE ROSTER AS IT CURRENTLY IS CONSTRUCTED

1. The roster contains a lot of likely 'dead wood', meaning guys who should be on minor league deals and guys who have underperformed in the past and are on their last chance, which they MUST be given before we can feel good about dumping them for nothing.

2. The roster has lots of guys competing for bullpen spots but very few of them could be counted on in the 8th or 7th innings.  To think that Matt Festa is your clear, #1 7th inning guy is scary, given what our pullpen has looked like in the past, when it was the strongest in baseball.  You could make the case that 2 things are occurring: (a) the Guardians are trying to be the smartest people in the room by taking failures who have certain attributes they like and turning them into successes that they weren't with their previous teams.  That is, essentially, the definition of hubris; (2) while I say this tongue-in-cheek, the bullpen acquisitions they have made look like they are designed to tick off the fanbase and make it hard to get excited about this team. IMO, I think this will likely tick off players who are trying to win (hint: one of those player's names rhymes with Mose A. Ha-Meer-Ez)

3. A trade of position prospects for proven veteran position player(s) is likely the only way we can improve the offense.  The FO says they believe in our prospects but I think, instead, it is because they are scared to have another Junior Caminero, Yainer Diaz, etc. blossom for another team.  They would rather ride or die with the prospects they have.  That might work but the hitting coaching on this team sucks and doing the same thing year after year and expecting different results is the definition of insanity...or a combination of insanity and hubris.  So, I would trade for Willson Contreras and Luis Robert Jr. and call it an off-season.  I would do this using some of the assets below in addition to players whose playing time they would take.   So, for example, I would trade Halpin in a Robert Jr. trade because they play the same position.  I would trade Kayfus in a Willson Contreras deal for the same reason.

PLAYERS WHO I THINK SHOULD BE TRADED

CJ Kayfus - IMO, Kayfus is a tweener.  He is not fast enough to be a good defensive outfielder and has no base stealing ability. His arm is weak. Yes, you can put him in the OF and he won't kill you there. He doesn't hit for enough power (and never will) to be a first baseman and doesn't hit for enough average that, without power or speed, he can start at either position.

Outdome - I think Kayfus should be used in a trade this off-season, e.g., to obtain Luis Robert, Jr.

Gabriel Arias - Arias is one of those teaser prospects.  A guy with one great tool (arm) and a bunch of other tools that you hope, someday, catch up to his arm strength.  So far they haven't.

Outcome - I look to trade Arias this winter as part of a package.  Bite the bullet, put Rocchio at SS and move on from Arias while he has value 

Peyton Pallette - If we need a roster spot, I think we should return Pallette to the White Sox instead of DFAing anyone on the current 40 man.

Nolan Jones - Part of the FO's premise for the 2026 season is to give our young position players who haven't had a chance yet, to play to see how they turn out.  Trading Jones opens up more playing time for guys like Valera and DeLauter...and even Halpin, when the opportunity arises.  

Outcome - I package Jones in a trade to get another asset that we do need.

NOTE: I would have never signed Holderman or Brogdon or traded for Bruihl so any of the three of them could be traded or released, IMO.

Looking Back on the 2024 Draft

 If you read my posts you know that I think the Guardians blew the 2025 draft where the upside grade I can reasonably give them is a C+

The 2023 draft is much more promising with the Guardians signing the following prospects (prospect status in parentheses)

1. Velazquez (11)

2. Clemmey (Traded in Lane Thomas deal) 

CBB. Walters (20)

3. Kayfus (Majors, topped out at #6 in Guardians' system before his promotion_

4. Ingle (4)

That's quite a haul for a single draft.  A couple of things about that draft: After the 4th round the Guards took a bunch of slap college hitters with no power and very little upside and, if you remember that draft, Colt Emerson, who slid down the draft and was my top pre-draft choice for the Guardians, was selected right before the Guardians could draft him, causing them to have to 'settle' for Velazquez.  Now Emerson is a consensus top 10 prospect in ALL of baseball while Velazquez hasn't broken the top 100 on most lists. So, while very successful, even the 2023 draft has its faults.

In 2022, the Guardians drafted DeLauter, Messick, Humphries, Austin Peterson, Zibin and Ellerts as the notables in that draft.  There were lots of misteps, like the drafting of slap hitting Lampe, furman, Lipscomb and soft tosser DeLucia and the unexpected career-long (so far) injured, CBA pick Justin Campbell. Still, they got something out of that draft.  

The 2021 college pitcher draft is legendary with our top two starting pitchers coming out of that draft.

But this post is about the 2024 draft and, particularly, the #1 overall pick.

The Guardians used that pick to draft Travis Bazzana.  It is safe to say that Bazzana has not playeded well.  His supporters will say that prospect development is not linear and that his development was slowed last year by injury.  The Bazzana detractors will tell you that his ABs look weak, resulting in more swing and miss in the zone and more weak contact, much more, than you would expect from a  polished college player drafted first overall in the draft.  

The key here is that this was Cleveland's first #1 overall pick EVER in the draft.  Frankly, Bazzana has to hit big for him to be an asset to this franchise and with Ramirez's contract nearing its end, Bazzana has to get the majors quickly to have good overlap with Ramirez and to give Cleveland the best chance to win in the Ramirez era (which we HOPE continues after 2028!).

The problem, as stated above, is that Bazzana has looked overpowered and overmatched a good portion of the time he's been in the minors.  Simply, he has NOT passed the eye test for what a #1 overall is supposed to look like. Compounding this is how many other players drafted in the first round of that draft have fared.  Here's a list:

1. Bazzana (#14 in MLB Pipeline)

2. Chase Burns (Majors)

3. Charlie Condon (61)

4. Nick Kurtz (AL ROY)

5. Hagen Smith (88)

6. Jac Caglianone (Majors)

7. JJ Wetherholt (5)

8.Christian Moore (Majors)

9. Konnor Griffin (#1 overall prospect in baseball)

10. Seaver King (Not in top 100)

So, while not ALL of the first 10 picks in the 2024 have had the ML success of Kurtz or the prospect success of Griffin and Wetherholt, it is clear that a lot of these guys have been more successful than Bazzana, who was drafted as a plug and play.  In fact, last spring it was: 1. Wetherholt, 2. Kurtz, 3. Bazzana until Wetherholt and Kurtz got injured.  Then it became Bazzana and Condon with Griffin as the dark horse to go 1-1.  So, looking before and after the injuries, it was likely Wetherholt, Kurtz, Bazzana and Griffin.  Of those 4 guys, only Bazzana is underperforming so far.

There is a very real chance that Bazzana may be a bust or, at least, perform more like a 2nd rounder than the 1-1 he is.

To a small market club like Cleveland, that would be devastating.

I get that playing for his country is very important to him but my feeling is, given his struggles so far in professional baseball, this could dig him a deeper hole in trying to reach his potential if he tanks it in the WBC.

Bazzana works for Cleveland and he needs to make it to Cleveland and be productive in the majors, hitting the ground running.  Despite the nationalism of the WBC, which is important, the only way Bazzana should be playing in the WBC is if he has mastered professional baseball and, frankly, profesiional baseball has, at this point, mastered Travis Bazzana.

Quick Thoughts About The 2025 ML Portion of the Rule 5 Draft

 Well, the 2025 Rule 5 drafts (ML and MiLB portions) are in the books and here are my thoughts:

Guardians

Once again the Guardians FO put on a masterclass as to how to conserve their prospect assets.

• ZERO players selected in the ML portion
• ZERO players selected in the minor league portion (almost unheard of!!!)

[NOTE: I think that is the first time in at least 10 years where they haven't lost ANYONE. More on that later tonight when I get a chance to research it.]

Major League Portion

• Definitions (my, arbitrary, decisions)
• Small market/weak teams: TB, CLE, DET, KC, MIN, CWS, ATH, LAA, MIA, WSH, CIN, COL, STL, PIT, 
• Large market/strong teams: TOR, NYYH, BOS, SEA, HOU, TEX, PHI, NYM, ATL, MIL, CHC, LAD, SD, SF, ARZ
• 13 players were selected 
• Teams losing players
• Small market/weak teams: Tigers, Marlins (2), Athletics, Reds, Rays, Cardinals
• Large market/strong teams: Red Sox, Phillies, Orioles, Giants (2)
• Teams drafting players or trading for those drafted:
• Small market/weak teams: Rockies, White Sox (2), Nationals, Athletics, Cardinals, Guardians
• Large market/strong teams: Giants, Rangers, Red Sox, Astros, Blue Gays, Yankees, Phillies
• Competitive Balance Implications (Including trades after the draft)
• 4 of the 13 players selected went from a small market/weak team to another small market/weak team
• 2 went from a large market/strong team to a small market/weak team
• 7 went from a small market/weak team to a large market/strong tea

• More players (7) were lost from small market/weak teams than from large market/strong teams
• Only 2 players drafted (after considering trades), went from a large market team to a small market/weak team
• The Yankees selected a player for the first time in at least 10 years and had no players drafted
• Both WS teams in 2025 did not lose a player
• One WS team (TOR) actually drafted a player 
• 7 (including trades) went from a small market/weak team to a large market/strong team.

SUMMARY

The Rule 5 draft was originally set up to redistribute talent and to keep the richer franchises from hoarding prospects.  In 2025 this effort failed.  In fact, weaker teams actually had more players drafted than they drafted.

More analysis to follow later tonight!