Thoughts For A Tuesday Morning - Hangover from the Biggest Game of the Season That Wasn't

Have Hope - Last Night Just Made It A Little Harder

 First, no season hangs on one AB or one pitch.  Yeah, Peters had a historically crazy long AB, Lowe screwed up, Rocchio didn't make a spectacular play to get Benitendi to open the inning and Herrin threw gasoline on the fire.

But we are only 1.5 games out of the lead in the AL Central and, thanks to the Tigers' fight and grit last night, we still hold a one game lead over Blue Jays.

Of the three teams (CLE, CWS, TOR) the Guardians have the most difficult remaining schedule.  And even Texas is still lurking as the slight dark horse in all this.

All we have to do is take care of business.

1. We need to win the next two games against Chicago to stay close.

2. We need to win the rest of our series to not require A LOT of help from the teams Chicago and Toronto play.

3. We need to pitch, hit, run the bases and play defense at a very high level. But this this under-resourced team, when has that NOT been true this season.

But there is hope.  Win the next game. Then the next. Win the next series and don't get wrapped around the axel if we don't sweep series.

It is still there for our taking.  We can win the division...or we won't.  We can be the 3rd wildcard...or we won't.

I just ask fans to keep the over-reaching negativity to a minimum.  Yeah, be ticked about the one inning last night. Be ticked about the one inning on Saturday.  But, in the past two weeks, that's all it's been...two really bad innings. 

It all comes down to the players now.  Let's just get it done, guys.

Random Thoughts About Last Night's Game

1. I know it's just my thing, but I really want Kwan to get his 5th gold glove and he will only do that in LF.

2. Bazzana, on defense, is really bad.  The throw from Kwan should have resulted in an out. He is the caution cone people say he is.  His work taking throws from the catcher and the OF is just freaking abysmal.  He will need to work in the OF in the off-season.

3. I hope Martinez is not hurt but I am pretty sure he is going to the IL for the rest of the season. He should have come out when he felt something even though it was in the middle of his AB.  His machismo cost us that AB because he had no ability to hit the ball on his last two swings.  This is a team game, Angel, and you need to learn when to gut it out and when not to.  If, in fact, he is done for the rest of the season, he should have been pulled in the middle of that AB.

4. In the face of frustration last night, one ironically comical, nervous laugh-generating moment did occure.  Fry, who came in for Lowe, mad a weak out against a LHP but hit a HR against a RHP, supporting his splits this year.  How does that make you feel, analytics nerds, who have no doubt promoted the platoon idea re. Fry this year.  

5. We simply need to take advantage of our chances on offense.  There is no other way to say it.  We have to be able to make up for pitching or defensive gaffes.

6. Two throws last night made me scratch my head:

a.    Bailey's setup on the bases-loaded grounder to Ramirez was very bad.  He should have been on the fair side of home plate with his left foot ont the plate so Ramirez had a lane to throw. Instead, Ramirez had to make an unbelievably risky throw that almost hit the runner.  I mean, from the Ramirez-eye replay, you couldn't even see Bailey with the runner coming down the line. No excuse for that.

b. Lowe's error could have been avoided if Rocchio had been on the infield side of second base. Instead, he didn't give Lowe an angle to throw, leading to the error. Yeah, the runner being where he was did contribute but, actually, Rocchio didn't have to be on the bag when he took the throw to defintely get one out and still maybe get a DP.

Both these defensive plays were inexcusable when you knew you had to play solid defense because you offense wasn't producing.

Summary

Let's go Guards. Your back is againstt the wall.  This is when champions come through.  Let's be champions!  Just win every series from now on and let the chips fall where they may.

Thoughts for A Wednesday - Sick Dog Version

 OK, our puppy is sick tonight so I am sitting up with her and, as I had some thoughts rattling around inside my skull, I thought I would post.

PLAYOFF RACE

We enter Wednesday trying to win the series from the Orioles.  All games are important now but my thoughts here revolve around moving forward.  For the Orioles, they came into this series knowing their backs were against the wall.  Being 4 games behind the Guardians for the 3rd wildcard spot, their only chance was to sweep.  That is, they had to sweep to continue forward momentum.  With one of the strongest (5th overall) remaining schedules and with every team in front of them having a somewhat (Texas, Houston) or very much weaker TOR (24th), CWS (29th), Cleveland (22nd) and Seattle (30th) less strong schedule, even one loss puts a damper on their playoff chances. 

For the Guardians, they still have their fate in their hands. Let's look at their path, as I see it:

1. Win out - If they continue winning, they are in the playoffs. 

2. If they lose, get help from other teams. Toronto lost a game to the Athletics, the White SOx to Pittsburgh. But the odds are stacked against them as the teams closest to them: WC - Toronto and AL Central - CWS have weaker remaining schedules.

3. White Sox series - Chicago didn't expect to be hanging around at this point.  But they are.  If one team sweeps this series they will likely be in the playoffs.  It they don't, they will spend three of their remaining games and only pick up or lose, at the most, one game.

4. Have things break just right.  I don't know how the Orioles finale will go but looking at the Guardians remaining schedule, it looks like, except for the White Sox series, things may break just right for the Guardians in terms of playing only teams that have nothing to play for except pride.  Minnesota is just coming off functionally being eliminated from WC or ALC contention. This is a fresh wound and maybe they will be down during the series with Cleveland.  After the White Sox come to town the Athletics show up and they are not currently playing well.  The last two series are on the road vs the Red Sox and Royals.  When Cleveland heads into Boston there will be 6 games left in the season.  The hope is that the Red Sox will be firmly entrenched in the second wild card spot at that point. They will be too far behind the Yankees to catch up and they will be too far ahead of Cleveland to get knocked down to the 3rd WC spot.  Boston's fate will then be sealed: win a best of 3 in NY in the WC round and then face the Rays in the 5 game ALDS, both on the road.  Both are daunting tasks and if they don't have anything to win or lose in this series they may take the pedal off the gas.   The last series in KC may be crucial and, at the same time, tough for the Guardians as it will be the final series of the year for the Royals at home AND Cleveland is a division rival adding more incentive to finish strong.  But if their remaining schedule has worn them down they may have run out of steam by that point and Cleveland may be able to sneak by them if the stakes for the Guardians are high.  

ROSTER SITUATION

We still do not have the optimal roster in my opinion.   Ralphy Velasquez is still languishing in AAA and we only have 2 solid SPs.

What do we do?

Well, unless Stephen Vogt and Chris Antonnetti want to grab their fiddles and play a duet as they watch our playoff chances for 2026 burn to the ground, there seems to be only 2 things that can be done, barring injuries:

1. Call up Ralphy:  The timing is not optimal as, like trading for Lowe, Adell, Yoho and Griffin, we may make it so Ralphy can't play in AAA next year if there is a lockout.  We need the bat.  He can play LF if needed but DH/1B is an option.  But if he comes up, he plays. No platoon with Fry.  Ralphy plays

2. Rework the rotation.  We may have to lean on Williams, Messick and magic man Griffin and some form of two bullpen/piggyback games.  So maybe Bibee goes once through the order with Festa warming up and then we use the bullpen the remainder of the game and then do a Cecconi/Cantillo piggyback the other game.  

3. Pray for rain: Well, the Spahn and Sain and pray for rain gimmick worked for the Braves years ago so maybe it can work for us, just substituting Messick and Williams for the two HOFers in the orgingal phrase.

Well, my puppy is still sick but I am done for the night.  GO GUARDIANS  

Thoughts For A Labor Day

 THE STRETCH RUN

Twitter is figuring out how difficult it is to catch teams that are even a little in front of you or hold off teams that are a little behind you when both of those types of teams have easier schedules.  The goal was to beat teams like the Mets and Royals to build up a little lead to put the pressure on teams like the White Sox and the Blue Jays.

So, the Guardians need to take care of their own business and look for help from other teams to make the playoffs.  It's not a desperate situation yet but every loss, and there will be some, will be like a dagger to their playoff chances.  

So it starts today against the Orioles who are likely done in terms of making the playoffs just because of the number of teams in front of them for the 3rd wildcard.  The problem is that there is still a glimmer of hope, with a HUGE dose of desperation.  So, it would really help if we win the first game.  However, while winning this series would probably remove any doubt about the Orioles being in the playoffs, it would also put them into getting-ready-for-nest-year mode meaning they would be less likely to beat the Blue Jays in the SIX remaining games they have with them.  Can you say double edged sword? 

So it becomes as proceed to Minneapolis this weekend.  Next week has a double dose of critical games (White Sox) and MORE critical games (Athletics) which end our home schedule.  Yeah, the CWS series is important but if we don't win 3 games we don't make up much ground. We will be fortunate to win 2 of 3 from the White Sox meaning we will need help to win the series.  Going 2-1 against Chicago, assuming we can take care of business this week, means that a sweep against the A's is crucial next weekend.

And so on...

RALPHY

Anyone who thinks a miracle will occur and we will go on a hot offensive streak in these last 18 games is not seeing what is going on.  DeLauter out for an indeterminate amount of time, Jose being debilitated as he recovers from hamate bone surgery and Adell and James looking more human is not a good recipe.  If you don't believe that we continue to be in trouble offensively remember that we NEVER led in any of the games against Detroit...until we walked off each of our 3 victories.  We didn't jump out early and we were always playing catchup against one of the worst teams in baseball right now and, remember, it's not WHO you play, it's how they are playing at that moment. 

So, we need offensive help.  We need a jolt.  We need Ralphy.  Is he the answer? Who knows. But right now Lowe is not the answer and, in fact, he is crack cocaine to Vogt, something none of us need when we just weened Vogt off of Hoskins.  

There is no reason not to promote Ralphy.  Keep him off the 40 a year before he has to be added? Allow him to play in the minors if there is a strike? He still has holes in his game?  There are arguments against all those arguments, but the only important argument is will he help us win games we wouldn't have won if we DIDN'T promote him?  Frankly, I can't see how any fan or Cleveland Guardians employee could say anuthing but YES.

Reading the first section of this post should tell you that this is EXACTLY the level of desperation, i.e.,, we're not quite at desperation levels yet, when we benefit the most by his promotion.  

MINOR LEAGUE SEASONS WINDING DOWN

This is always the tough time of year for us prospect geeks.  Our minor league teams, one by one, are ending their seasons.  But there are rays of sunshine from this year that should keep us warm all winter:

1. The 2025 college hitter draft is producing some exciting results.  Not ready to change my rating on this draft but one thing is for sure: LaViolette, Schubart, Walton, Curley and Hill are exciting hitters.  Add in the breakout year by Cesarini and the mini-breakout year by Bennett Thompson and the renewed prospect status of Jason Churio, and we have a lot to dream on.  Still too many Ks, still some questionable defense and maybe a lot of tweener guys aside, these guys were FUN to watch and I look forward to more next year.  We can no longer say that these guys were just beating up on younger competition.  If they continue on the steep part of their development curve we could have some really good ML players come out of that draft.  Sprinkle in our other young guys in AAA and the majors and our hitters in this organization are on a HUGE upswng.  

2. The Guardians have a recent habit of putting their college draft choices in low A Hill City in their draft year or, for lower round picks, in their first full season.  These guys don't always dominate, raising immediate red flags.  But this year, these guys ARE performing.  So, given the 2025 draft class, there is more hope for the 2026 college hitter class than I previously thought.  Still don't like that draft but I am at least willing to admit that the Guardians may, in some cases, indeed be the smartest guys in the draft room.  Time will tell.

3. International amateur free agents - Look, the Guardians tend to spread their money around in signing amateur international free agents.  This year we are starting to see the advantage of that strategy. Dauri Fernandez, Junker Caceras, Reiner Herrera and even the recently traded Alejandro Rivera have already had success in the US minor leagues. And I don't want to forget about Robert Arias.  He suffered a severe leg injury this year but before that, he was looking, to me, like a very easy top 100 prospect in baseball.  As he works through his rehab, I still feel that next year he could continue the breakout that he started this year and by next September at this time, we could be dreaming on his potential.  Swert Reinoso, although only a good prospect when signed in January 2026, is already looking like he might be a steal.  So maybe even the hitters in the lower minors may be pushing their way to the top of prospect lists.

4. Pitching black hole - Look, everyone knows how genius the 2021 college pitcher draft turned out to be. 2022 was no different as Messick and Campbell look like top shelf pitchers.  However, after the 2nd round in 2022 the Guardians, inexplicably, stopped drafting top college pitchers.  This has created a black hole in our farm system and, frankly, I don't know where our replacements will be coming from on the pitching front.  Braylon Doughty looks very, very solid but that is about it.  Looking at the 2026 minor league stats, Cleveland's draft strategy has left the cupboard bare of pitching prospects and that could come back to bite us.  So we will need some developmental miracles to get any pitching out of our system outside of Doughty.  Let's hope it happens.

4. No playoffs...thankfully.  While breeding winning is more essential in the minor leagues than some people say it is, minor league playoffs are not necessary.  In fact, they provide the exact type of mirage stats and performances that create false hope.  Joey Oakie's dominance as a very young pitcher at Hill City at the end of last year gave the impression that he was on the fast tract.  His uneven performance this year at that same level gave a more real impression of exactly who he was drafted to be: a kid with a great arm and work ethic who needed LOTS of polishing.  It is no surprise that Doughty sprinted by Oakie.  Except for the mirage created at the end of 2025, us prospect geeks would have never been fooled.  So, minor league playoffs are cute but clearly, on any level, unnecessary, IMO.

It's Labor Day. There are 18 ML regular season games left for Cleveland.  Go Guardians!!1!

Thoughts For A Thursday - August 27th Edition

 On this off-day I had a lot of thoughts rattline around in my head:

The Guardians Hold Their Fate In Their Own Hands

This seems trite but looking at the remaining schedule, except for KC and Detroit, most of their opponents are exactly the ones they are fighting against, for the Central championship and the wildcard.  So often you need help from other teams to win a battle like this...and of course we appreciate any help we can get.  But the Guardians get to fight this out head to head.  Even the games against KC (who is extremely hot right now) and Detroit will not be easy as divisional games carry their own bragging rights, no matter the standings. We still have the 26th ranked strength of schedule so that helps.  But, no matter how this season turns out, this schedule is exactly who we want to play to EARN a post-season spot, and I am happy about that.

Don't Look Now, But Here Come The Mariners

For the last several weeks I preached patience and that by September 1st we would know where we were.  Why? Because we played nothing but teams that had bad overall records that it was our chance to make up ground quickly.  And we did.

But don't look now but Seattle is within 3 games of the AL West lead and 5 games of the 3rd wildcard and their remaining schedule has a .436 winning percentage.  That's .043 easier than the Guardians who sit 26th.  So, the Mariners WILL make up games and, IMO, are the current favorites to sneak up and win the AL West.  What happens to Texas and Houston will help determine the third wildcard team.

Ralphy or No Ralphy

That debate is all the rage on Twitter and other media.  So here's my take:

1. The "Ralphy is not being promoted" crew rightly cite that if he is promoted this year (one year before he has to be added to the 40-man) he could potentially not get to play next year during whatever work stoppage there is since guys on the 40-man would not be eligible to play in the minors.  While that is true, realize that MANY good prospects willl have to be rostered by teams this winter that the talent in AAA will be so diluted next year that it will look more like a AAAA league than it usually does  Currently, the average age in the International League is almost 27 years old.  This could spike to almost 28 years old or higher if guys like Velazquez *21 years old) can't play there next year.  Do you really think it is helpful next year for Ralphy to play against AAAA competition or get a taste of the majors this year and maybe help the team get to and do well in the playoffs?

2. The "Bring Ralphy Up Now" crew says that this team could use the jolt that he would bring.  While I think there is some of that (see Genao and even Watson promotions) we have to realize that Ralphy is far from a finished product and an Ingle-like debut is possible.  Plus, if CDL is limited to DH most of September, there really isn't a place for Ralphy.  But if Ralphy is brought up after September 1st his ABs don't count against his rookie eligibility but can help the team (Evan Carter for Texas a couple of years back). 

So where do I stand? Bring him up once the rosters expand.  You have to bring up someone and I just don't see how bringing up Watson, Schnee, Manzo, Ingle are going to help this team down the stretch any more than Ralphy would. You gotta bring someone up so bring up someone who might help now and in the playoffs.  Those other guys can still be added to the playoff roster (if we get there) in case of injuries but Ralphy is lightning in a bottle here and, despite his positional limitations, he's more likely to give us one good month than these other guys.

Who Is The Pitcher We Call Up?

We have a conondrum. We can bring up one pitcher come September 1st. We can also possibly demote Allen and maybe even Festa.  We have Espino, Aleman and Cecconi who could possible help our bullpen be more solid with Cecconin giving us Allen-like length.  

However, upsetting the apple cart at this point, with Festa and Allen pitching well, has significant risk associated with it. It's the brass ring grab hoping for additional victories (Aleman, Espino, Cecconi) or the status quo is good (Allen, Festa and, probably Cecconi) or some combination of the two.

How will they go?  I think, on September 1st, they will call up Cecconi and Espino and demote Allen. They will hold Aleman and Allen in reserve at AAA in case of injuries or bad performance by Espino.  Festa is just too solid right now and Espino and Cecconi add so much potential strength to this bullpen I can't see them going for less than this.

One other point: Ben Lively was, until tonight, looking good.  I think he may be a wildcard playoff pssibility but I see him spending the rest of CBus' season strengthening and lengthening.  

Latest MLB Proposal - More Rule 5 BS

Only if you are new here is there the possibility that you might think I liked MLB's proposal about the Rule 5. In fact I hate both sides' Rule 5 proposals.

I have shown in an earlier article that the ML portion of the Rule 5 doesn't work at the current eligibility levels.  Yet both sides want to shorten the time between a player being acquired and being R5 eligible? Absolutely stupid and showing an extreme lack of understanding of the Rule 5 draft and how totally worthless it is.  Which makes me laugh at the most recent proposals on this subject.

So, let me get this straight. Both MLB and MLBPA want to make players LESS experienced before they get this make-or-break opportunity to make a ML roster.  Plus the MLB put icing on that cake by saying that teams could possible send a Rule 5 pick to the minors.  Really?  How many times and ways do I have to provide data that says the Rule 5 doesn't work.  And that data doesn't include the likely millions of dollars that is spent by ML teams agonizing over who to protect and then figuring out if players from other teams might be good Rule 5 picks.

I have an idea. DO AWAY WITH THE DAMN RULE 5 DRAFT AND LET THESE GUYS DEVELOP IN THE SYSTEM THAT ACQUIRED THEM. I am fine with shortening minor league free agency to 5 years for college draftees or NDFAs.  I am even fine with shortening the time for ML free agency to 5 years of service time.  Plus, the overall roster restrictions in the affiliated US minor leagues for teams has already allowed players mobility that they didn't have a few years ago as every draft cycle causes minor leaguers to be cut so teams' draftees can be placed on this 165 player list each team has. But the crap these guys are proposing? No way.

Stop the BS.  Teams should get to fully develop the players they draft or sign as NDFAs.  Implementing any of the crap that has been suggested gives thos teams that spend the money to bring in players less of a chance to do that and, frankly, could lead to more trading of draft picks because those picks are less important if players don't get to develop. And, yes, living through Ted Stepien and DeShaun Watson, among others, I do not want front offices and cheap owners to have any more impetus to devalue obtaining amateur talent than they already do.  Allowing trading of draft picks allows them to do just that. As a fan of the Cleveland Guardians that is the exact opposite of what should happen.

Why We Need To Do Away With the Rule 5 Draft

 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

One of the proposals made by the MLBPA as the continuation of the Rule R5 draft.  I am not sure how serious the players are about keeping that draft or if it is just a negotiating ploy to create a throwaway item that they are readily willing to trade for something they really want.

But, whether or not the MLBPA really wants to keep the R5, this article provides data showing that the R5 draft should be discontinued as it is largely ineffective at its stated goal.

The article looks at demographics and statistics for players drafted in ML Rule 5 drafts from 2015-2024 and in the one year, 2021, when no ML Rule 5 draft occurred.  It also looks at the 2025 roster freeze to see who teams protected or did not protect in anticipation of the upcoming R5 draft.  The minor league phase of the R5 will not be considered in this article as there appears to be no evidence that the status quo for that phase will negatively impact future competitive balance or player opportunities to make major leagues.

My research showed that, while the ML R5 draft is one method to give some players a chance at playing in the ML before they would through normal development:

• The ML R5 draft was only slightly more effective at giving players the opportunity to play in the majors and become successful than if those players had just stayed with their original team.
• The R5 draft caused a number of players to have to play in the ML after having not played much, if at all, at levels above AA.  
• The threat of potentially losing prospects to the Rule 5 has caused teams to roster players who are too early in their careers to be effective major leagues. This resulted in needlessly using up some or all of their minor league options before they are ready for the majors. 
• In the one year, 2021, where no ML R5 draft was held, a number of prospects who likely would have been drafted wound up having ML success the next year (2022) and beyond with their organizations.
• If we exclude a few players who had good careers after being drafted in the ML R5, many R5 draftees, even if they had long careers in the majors, were mostly used in low leverage situations (e.g., middle relievers, backup position players/role players)
• R5 draftees often have very limited playing time in the season following when they are drafted. While a good number do get reasonable reps in their first year, the impression still exists that many are simply being stashed on the ML roster for the requisite one year (actually 90 days on the active roster)
• Rostering of players not ready for the major leagues to protect them from the R5 draft creates 'dead spots' on the 40-man roster being taken for years by players who weren't ready to help the ML team.  This limits a team's roster flexibility and causes more experienced players to be DFA'd (or not signed at all) to make room for these young, not-ready-for-MLB prospects on the 40-man roster.
• The R5 draft, in its current form, does little to redistribute talent from the richer teams to resource-limited teams. Instead, it mostly just shuffles prospects between the middle and bottom teams in baseball.
• In summary, the ML R5 draft takes up a lot of resources from teams trying to prepare for that draft.  At the same time, the ML R5 draft is not effective in improving the competitive balance in baseball and does very little to get players chances at playing meaningful roles in the majors. It also doesn't appear to give players chances that they wouldn't have if they had just stayed with the team they were R5 drafted from.  The ML R5 draft should be eliminated so teams can build their 40 man rosters to be more competitive each year and prospects can develop at a normal rate and not pushed to the major leagues by an artificial construct like the ML R5 draft.

BACKGROUND

The Rule 5 draft has, in some form, existed for over 125 years.  The intent, before the Rule 4 draft was instituted in 1965, was to prevent the wealthiest teams from hoarding talent by offering the largest bonuses to, essentially, buy up all the best amateur players.  Once a player was signed by a team, he was considered perpetually bound to that team as long as they continued to offer him even a minor league contract.  A number of rule changes have been made to try to stop this practice:

• The original Rule 5 - While this had many variations over the years, teams could draft players from other teams as a way to negate, to some extent, this hoarding. Many of the players attributed as successes in the Rule 5 draft (e.g., Roberto Clemente and George Bell) were actually obtained as part of the original first year player draft, where players could be drafted by other teams after they had played professionally for only one year.
• In 1965 the amateur draft was started with the goal of allowing all teams to have more equal access to amateur talent BEFORE they were signed by the wealthiest teams.
• In 1975 this 'reserve clause' was challenged and an arbiter made a ruling that abolished the reserve clause and established free agency. ML players could then become free agents after 6 full seasons in the majors.  
• Shortly after the reserve clause was invalidated, it was also established that players not on a team's 40-man roster could become minor league free agents after they had 6 full years in professional baseball.  
• Shortly after that, the rules were changed so that players on a team's 40 man roster could only be sent to the minors in three different seasons without having to pass through waivers before they could be sent down a 4th time. [NOTE: in some cases MLB grants a 4th option year to teams for certain players]
• Players who have been DFA'd one time can elect free agency if they are DFA'd a second time.
• Players with enough ML service time can elect free agency instead of being sent to the minors
• In 2022 the number of players a team can have in their US minor league system was limited to 165.

All these rule changes have, when considered together, addressed a lot of what the original Rule 5 was intended to address. Amateur players are now acquired more equitably and players are allowed to move from organization to organization more freely. 

So, the question becomes:

HAS THE MAJOR LEAGUE PORTION OF THE RULE 5 DRAFT OUTLIVED ITS USEFULNESS?

We have calls for a salary cap to keep well-financed teams from just buying championships.  We have calls for a salary floor to make the owners with limited resources spend more money to at least attempt to be competitive and/or keep their own players instead of trading them as they approach free agency.  Both these proposals, like the original intent of the Rule 5 draft, is to improve competitive balance.  

But is the Rule 5 draft, at the present time, really improving competitive balance?

[Note: All the data below comes from me counting up players.  Even though I checked my work, it is quite possible that I overcounted or undercounted by 1 or 2 in some of these categories.]

Looking at the 9 R5 drafts from 2015-2024 (there was no ML portion of the R5 draft in 2021) here is what I found:

• 130 players were drafted in the MLR5 draft.  59 were NOT returned to their original team while 71 were offered back
• The Yankees had the most (21) players drafted but only 4 of them were not returned. The team with the 2nd most players drafted was Cleveland (9), followed by Tampa Bay and the Dodgers (8). Baltimore (12) and Philadelphia (9) drafted the most players.
• 23 of 30 teams had at least 1 player who was drafted and NOT returned, 28 teams (not LAD or NYY) selected at least 1 player with 25 teams selecting at least 2 or more in this period.
• No team had more than 4 players that were lost for good in this period.

These numbers clearly give the impression that, for the most part, teams were just re-arranging the deck chairs within the financial lower echelon of teams and that redistribution of talent to those teams from well-financed teams was not effective.

Let's look at some more numbers from the R5 drafts during this period:

• Of the 71 players who were returned to their original teams
• 29 returned players (41%) NEVER played in the majors
• 8 returned players only played briefly for the major league team that drafted them. Once they were returned, they never played in the majors again.
• 13 of the remaining returned 34 players (38%) made their major league debut with their original team the season after they were drafted in the ML R5 and a total of 25 (74%) made their ML debuts in the first 2 seasons after they were drafted.
• 9 of those 34 players (26%) returned who played in the majors after they were returned have had major league careers of 5 years or longer, 21 (62%) have had ML careers of 2 years or longer so far.
• Of the 59 players who were NOT returned to their original team
• As said above, 59 of 130 (45%) of R5 drafted players were not returned to the team they were drafted from and, therefore, most made their ML debut the season after they were R5 drafted.
• 21 (35%) have had ML careers of 5 years or longer and 38 (59%) have had ML careers of at least 2 years so far.
• 32 of the 59 (54%) players not returned have had ML careers as mostly middle relievers, 5 have been leverage relievers and 6 are starting pitchers. The remaining 16 are position players.  Aside from the SP and leverage relievers, most of the 59 players not returned have had careers as low leverage players.
• Notable players from these drafts include
• Players returned to their original team : Nester Cortez Jr., Trevor Megill, Will Vest
• Players who were not returned: Anthony Santander, Brad Keller, Shane Smith, Mitch Spence, Liam Hicks, Garrett Whitlock and Jordan Romano.
• Therefore, over these 9 drafts there was, on average, one player per year who had a career as a high leverage player and 70% of those were players who were R5 drafted and not returned.
• The highest playing level a drafted player had obtained (using MLB's rookie definitions as a rough guide) at the time they were drafted were:
• AAA: not returned to their original team (19), returned (21)
• AA: not returned (26), returned (32)
• A+ : not returned (8), returned (10)
• A: not returned (3), returned (6)
• Rookie ball: not returned (1),  returned (1)
• Previous MLB experience: not returned (2), returned (1)
• Using the numbers above, players drafted in these R5 drafts were mostly at AA or lower in their development at the time they were drafted.
• 40 AAA
• 58 AA
• 18 A+
• 9 A
• 3 Rookie League
• The 59 players taken in these rule 5 drafts who were not returned filled the following roles in the ML careers:
• Middle reliever (32)
• Starting pitcher (6)
• Leverage reliever (5)
• Position player (usually platoon or backup) (16)
• Major league average for players making their ML debuts is 24-25 years old and the number of times players had to be sent to the minors after their debut before they stuck in the majors is twice.
• Players not returned averaged 2.2 times returning to the minors before they stuck in the majors
• Players returned and not returned both had an average age of about 24.5 years old at the time they made their ML debuts.

Looking at these second set of numbers gives the following impressions:

• Players who were returned to their original team actually had similar chances to make the ML, even in the year after they were drafted in the ML R5 draft to R5 draftees who were not returned.
• 88 of 130 (67%) drafted likely were not ready for the major leagues when they were drafted in the R5.as they had spent most or all of their careers up to that point in AA or lower levels.
• While players who were not returned generally had good major league careers, a number of players who WERE returned had good major league careers, as well.  This is even more compelling as you would guess that the players who were NOT returned had, by definition, a much greater likelihood of having good careers as they were likely more talented and ML ready than the players who were returned. 
• Finally, given the rules behind the Rule 5 draft, it appears the data supports that teams drafting players in the ML R5 are looking for players they can put in low leverage situations (e.g., middle relievers) in their first year with the idea that those players might develop into more later.  The data, however, doesn't support that to be true.

WHAT IS THE TRUTH ABOUT RULE 5 DRAFTEES BECOMING ALL-STARS?

Various sources list up to 41 players drafted in the Rule 5 draft who became all-stars since the early 1960s. As it turns out, after looking at this closely:

• 17 players drafted in the ML portion of the R5 and not returned fit today's criteria for what a ML R5 draft pick looks like and who also became an all-star.
• 10 became all-stars AFTER being returned 
• Of those 17, three (Jeff Nelson, Willie Hernandez and Ryan Pressly) became all-stars 8-10 years after they were drafted in the ML portion of the R5
• 3 (George Bell, Paul Blair, Dave May) were drafted in the R5 when you could be drafted after playing as little as one year of professional baseball and May and Blair, in particular, were really not Rule 5 draft picks at all, rather being part of a different draft of players with one year of professional experience. [NOTE: Other supposed ML R5 success stories like Roberto Clemente were not actually R5 draft picks, either. Clemente was drafted to Pittsburgh after only one year of minor league baseball]
• One additional player (Jason Grilli) became an all-star after playing for 3 ML teams before he was drafted in the R5
• An additional five Rule 5 draftees became all-stars after being selected in the minor league portion of the R5 draft
• One of the 17 (Derrick Turnbow) appeared to have required 4 minor league options before he established himself in the big leagues and became an all-star
• One of the 17, Josh Hamilton, was not even playing baseball when he was selected in the Rule 5 draft and turned his career around to become an all-star

In summary, the data above suggest the following

• It is slightly more likely (17 to 10) that ML R5 draftees who are not returned become all-stars compared to those who are returned after the R5 draft.
• There were a number of players, e.g., George Bell, who are portrayed as R5 success stories when, in fact, their entry into the R5 did not even fit today's criteria for being R5-eligible, making these lists of R5 success studies questionable.
• The number of all-stars (5) who came out of the minor league phase of the R5 adds support to keeping this phase going in the future.
• The number of ML R5 draftees who became all-stars, when each example is looked at closely, implies that these cases are more anecdotal than a trend and, therefore, do not support continuation of the ML R5 draft.

ARE PLAYERS SELECTED IN THE ML R5 LIKELY TO JUST BE STASHED ON A ML ROSTER FOR A SEASON SO THEY DON'T HAVE TO BE RETURNED TO THEIR ORIGINAL TEAM?

Looking at the 59 players who were not returned, here is the usage data for those players in their first year after being selected in the ML R5 draft. 

If a player met or surpassed the usage limits below in their first year they were considered to be used appropriately and not just stashed on the ML roster to fulfill the R5 requirement.

Relief pitchers: 35 games

Starting pitchers/swingmen: 70 innings

Position players: 300 plate appearances

The number of players for each type who met these criteria

POSITION PLAYERS: 4 met the PA criteria, 13 did not and so were considered 'stashed'

STARTING PITCHERS/SWINGMAN: 6 met the criteria, 0 did not

RELIEF PITCHERS: 18 met the criteria, 9 did not

INJURED LIST - 7 could not complete requirements

From the data above it can be concluded that most (73%) of pitchers drafted in the ML R5 draft from 2015-2024 were used enough in their first year to not be considered just stashed on the major league roster so they wouldn't have to be returned. On the other hand, only a few (24%) of position players played regularly enough to NOT be considered 'stashed' on the major league roster.

It does appear that most of the pitchers drafted in these ML R5 drafts did pitch enough in their first year to NOT delay their development.  However, it does appear that many of the position players were, met the criteria for low usage and, therefore, being stashed on the ML bench for their first year, likely delaying their development as baseball players.  Thus, the overall impression is that some of the ML R5 draftees are stashed on ML rosters although many are NOT stashed, using my definition.  As a proviso, this is not to say that these players had increased roles in their 2nd year after being drafted in the ML R5 draft, but at least a lot did not have their development terribly hampered by just sitting on the bench in their first year. 

WHICH PROSPECTS DO TEAMS TEND TO PROTECT FROM THE RULE 5?

It would have taken more time than I could devote to this project to look back for 10 years at which R5-eligible prospects teams chose to protect.  So I just looked at what the demographics were for the prospects teams chose to (and not to) protect against the upcoming 2025 ML R5 draft. Looking at the MLB article on which TOP prospects each organization protected (or did not protect) from the 2025 ML R5 draft by their roster additions this November, the highest level these players achieved (using MLB's rookie eligibility rules to establish if a player has had enough experience at the top level they had played in to have been able to graduate from that level), coming out of the November 2025 roster freeze was:

• AAA: Protected (40), not protected (20)
• AA: Protected (37), not protected (36)
• A+ : Protected (6), not protected (21)
• A: Protected (1), not protected (3)

Looking at these numbers, teams in 2025 seemed to prioritize protecting players who were close to ML-ready, with emphasis on players with significant AAA experience. Although players with less upper level experience may have been better prospects, teams seemed to be gambling that those less experienced players would not be drafted and, if drafted, would not be able to stick with a ML team.

ANECDOTALS

In my research and listening to people argue for and against the ML R5 draft over the years, I have encountered (or propagated) the following anecdotals regarding the ML R5:

• The ML R5 draft gives players who might not be developing in a system a chance to move to another system where they CAN develop. [NOTE: I have seen no evidence of that in my research and, even if it did occur, it would be very anecdotal]
• Teams dedicate a lot of time and money analyzing their prospects, analyzing other teams' trends in the Rule 5 and analyzing players available in the Rule 5 after the roster freeze is announced. [NOTE: While this is another one of those things that appears obvious, I have found no evidence that this is true.  I will say this, though. For small market teams that are resource -challenged, they could probably find a better way to use their analytics and team resources if they didn't have to worry about the ML R5 draft.] 
• Fear of the R5 draft causes teams to protect players earlier than they should, just to avoid the risk of losing a prospect.  [NOTE: While there is anecdotal evidence of that (e.g., Jhonkensy Noel protected by Cleveland when he barely had played in A+ and Juan Brito being protected when he had just completed a season of A ball) I did not see any evidence that teams routinely protect large numbers of A+ or A players (or lower) against the R5.  It does happen, but it does not appear to be common.]
• The ML R5 gives players a chance to get to the major leagues quicker than they normally would.  [NOTE: My research has shown this may be a fallacy created just because it is impossible to look at an alternate future where a player stays with their organization instead of being drafted. I will acknowledge that this is possible but, to me, is unimportant as the issues the ML R5 creates for players AND teams greatly outweigh the benefits for these few players, if they exist, which I could not prove through my research AND because there is ample evidence that a good percentage of returned players make it to the majors with the organization they were drafted from either that season or the next one.]
• We need a R5 draft because, without it, there is a chance that a player could be held by a team for 9 years (6 as a minor leaguer and 3 option years if he is rostered near the end of his first 6 years).  [NOTE: I acknowledge that is a possibility, but I think it is probably just theoretically possible or, at best, very anecdotal.  Again, exceptions cannot drive the continuation of the ML R5 draft.] 
• Players are emotionally scarred if they don't make it to the make it to the majors as a ML R5 draftee. [NOTE: I have anecdotal evidence that this is true from interviewing players who have been ML R5 draftees but, to my knowledge, no studies have been done to show that this is true.]
• Players not returned suffer developmental delays in their baseball career as a result of being 'stashed' on a big league roster (and bench) for a season, seldomly playing. [NOTE: Another example of something that appears to be obvious.  My research did show that many of these players were sent back to the minors (sometimes the low minors) the season following their ML R5 draft season, staying in the minors, sometimes, for a number of seasons before they returned to the major leagues for good. However, my research failed to show that this stashing occurred frequently nor was it necessarily a factor in delaying their development.  Rather, players who are returned to their original team don't appear to develop any faster or turn into better players than those who are NOT returned and are seldomly used in their first ML season.]

THE ML R5 DRAFT THAT NEVER HAPPENED

In 2021, teams set their ML rosters and their AAA reserve lists as usual, but the ML R5 draft never happened that year due, in part, to the lockout as the new CBA was still being negotiated.  This gave a unique chance for study of what would happen if the ML R5 draft was abolished and prospects who might have otherwise been drafted just stuck with their original team until they were rostered or just became 6 year minor league free agents..  That is, a lot of the proponents of the ML R5 draft point to the all-stars, MVPs and HOFers that have come out of this draft without considering whether those players would have achieved the same status if they had just staying with the organization that had spent years and lots of money to sign and develop them.

So let's take a look at some of the significant players who would have been available for the 2021 ML R5 draft and what happened to them in 2022 and in 2023-2025.  I will admit that, at this point, I am worn down from the research that I have done for this article.  I also acknowledge that I was not able to find, for 2021, an article like I found for 2025 that listed all the top prospects for each team that were or were not protected against the ML R5.  So the list I am about to give you is absolutely anecdotal, but it's the best I could do at the moment;  So here is the list of significant prospects I have found who were not protected against the 2021 ML R5 draft that never happened [NOTE: list is in no particular order]::

1. Yainer Diaz

2. Oscar Gonzalez

3. Will Benson

4. Joey Cantillo

5. Cooper Hummel

6. Lenyn Sosa

7. Kody Clemens

8. Jordan Diaz

Obviously this is just a cursory look.  I am sure if I could see a list of the top prospects team chose NOT to protect in 2021 more names would jump out.  In addition, teams had their lists of players they would consider drafting that might be in addition to the list above.  Just by inspection, this looks like a pretty decent list of players who could have easily been lost had there been a ML R5 draft in 2021.  The takeaway for me from this list is that players succeed or fail, in many cases, irrespective of the organization they are in but, rather, based on how talented they are.  It supports the presumption that a number of the biggest success stories coming out of the ML R5 draft would have been successes if there had NOT been a ML R5 draft.  

In my opinion, this just adds to the overall data that supports that the ML R5 draft is not needed and, in fact, can actually hurt the teams it should be helping, the resource-limited teams.

Guardians Top 75 Prospects - Mid-Season/Pody-Deadline Edition

After thinking about it, I barely could come up with 75 prospects so I cut it off there.  Apologies to anyone who was looking for a top 100 here.

1. Ralphy Velasquez
2. Angel Genao

3. Jaison Chourio

4. Liam Peterson

5. Juniker Caceras

6. Robert Arias - The injury is a concern but I am soooo high on this guy.

7. Braylon Doughty

8. Cooper Ingle

9. Daniel Espino

10. Franco Aleman

11. Jace LaViolette

12. Dean Curley

13. Alfonsin Rosario

14. Welbyn Francisco

15. Svert Reinoso

16. Dauri Fernandez

17. Yorman Gomez

18. Aaron Walton

19. Andrew Walters

20. Tre Broussard

21. Justin Campbell

22. Franklin Gomez

23. Joey Oakie

24. Khalil Watson

25. Nolan Schubart

26. Lucas Moore

27. Khal Stephen

28. Ryan Cessarini

29. Kody Huff

30. George Valera\

31. Bennett Thompson

32. Luke Hill

33. Kade Lewis

34. Milan Tolentino

35. Jackson Humphries

36. Aaron Davenport

37. Gabriel Rodriguez

38. Savion Sims

39. Deiten LaChance

40 Luis De La Cruz

41. Jacob Zibin

42. Austin Peterson

43. Trenton Denholm

44. Michael Kennedy

45. Will Hynes 

46. Rorik Maltrud

47. Reiner Herrera

48. Heinz Brito

49. Jogly Garcia

50. Hiverson Lopez

51. Cam Sullivan

52. Chase Mobley

53. Magnus Ellerts 

54. Logun Clark 

55. Anthony Martinez 

56. Dayan Frias

57. Tommy Hawke

58. Alex Mooney

59. Luis Merejo

60. Jose Devers

61. Aiden Major

62. Caden Favors

63. Juan Benjamin

64. Esteban Gonzalez

65. Rafe Schlesinger

66. Ryan Prager

67. Johan Rodriguez

68. Yeiferth Castillo

69, Melkelis Hernandez

70. Maick Collado

71. Jose Pirela

72. Evelio Hernandez

73. Cam Schuelke

74. Rafeliz Lara

75. Alejandro Blasco

Final Draft Post of 2026 - The 'haul; and how much it cost compared to my shadow draft's cost

 OK, in 2025 I said how much I disliked the Guardians draft and actually lowered an already low grade when I saw how much they overpayed for the talent they got.

So now let's turn the page to 2026 which, in my opinion, set a new low for recent Cleveland drafts with the draft room repeating past mistakes, drafting exactly the wrong kinds of players, drafting ZERO quality college pitching prospects, trying to show, once again, that they are the smartest guys in the room and smarter than everyone else.  

Let's now see how the smartest guys in the room did in terms of paying for their poor draft in 2026.

1 - Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arnkansas ($4.0 MM)

2. Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston St. ($1.5 MM)

3. Nathan Taylor, RHP, Cincinnati (0.800 MM)

4. Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA (0.600 MM)

5. Eric Nachtheim RHP, McNeese St. (0.300 MM)

6. Cam Johnson, LHP, Oklahoma (0.350 MM)

7. Savion Sims, RHP, HS ($1.0 MM)

8. Chris Katz, 1B, Mercer (0.250 MM)

9. Gavin Van Kempen, RHP, East Carolina (0.200 MM)

10. Christian Coppola, RHP, St. Joseph's (0.195 MM)

11. Mark Quatrani, C, Notre Dame (Not drafted - could have offered him $0.26 - 0.5 K)

12. Grayson Fitzwater, 1B, VMI ($0.150 MM)

13. Judd Utemark UTIL Ole Miss (Not drafted)

The total for my shadow draft through round 10 - $9,195 MM)

Total budget for Cleveland's draft ($9.303 MM)

Thus I came in underbudget and with a little tougher negotiation I could have had $750 K left for an overslot signing or two in rounds 11-20.

If the Guardians don't sign Schmidt, their actual draft comes in with a CEILING of a "C" grade if they can fix Peterson and if Sims makes the majors. 

This is as close to a total failure of any draft in the last decade for the Guardians and not something a resource-limited team can have.  

The only plus for the organization is that Dolan was able to put $1.5 MM (international pool not spent) + $3.2 MM (the value he would have had to spend on pick #29 he traded, along with Matt Wilkinson for Bailey + $1.6 MM (the amount he doesn't have to pay since Schmidt didn't sign).  That's $6.3 MM he gets to keep in his pocket and that doesn't count the $813 K he would have had to spend if they had gone 5% over their draft budget.

Therefore, Dolan has avoided spending over $7 MM this year on prospects.  If that isn't cheap, I don't know what is.  

Good night and good luck.  See you next draft season and place my shadow draft in your 2026 time capsule.  I think, 5 years from now, you would be ecstatic with my haul from this draft compared to the minimal haul the Guardians actually got.