How Would It Work If We Even Shortened the MLB Draft?

 With age comes perspective. or so I have been told.

I have been a draft geek for most of my life.  When I grew up Cleveland's baseball team was so bad that the two times of year I could get really excited about it was during the draft and during September callups when I would search for heroes that were going to save me from the bad and mediocre teams of my youth.

So it was disappointing to me when the draft went from an unlimited number of rounds (no mor Mike Piazzas) to 40 rounds and then, after COVID and the reduction in minor league teams, to 20 rounds (no more Cody Allens and Daniel Schneemans).

Ahh, but we are back to that perspective thing (no pun intended, based on the name of this blog). 

Watching the Guardians draft in these last few years it is clear to me that the draft could really be limited to 15 rounds and it wouldn't impact the ML roster...like ever.  This would especially be true if HS kids were eliminated from the draft pool.

So what would a draft of less than 20 rounds look like?

1.  I can't see the draft being less than 15 rounds.  There has to be some wiggle room in case you can't sign some of your early picks. 

2. Just in case owners are thinking they can save money on the draft by shortening it, let's make sure that doesn't happen:

    a. The 15-round draft would be completely slotted, with the last pick in the 15th round having a slot value of $150,000.  Same rules as apply now would apply if this change was implemented relative to not exceeding your bonus pool or your bonus pool plus 5% if you are OK with paying a penalty.

    b. There will be NO trading of draft picks before the 10th round and only the top 10 teams in terms of revenue could trade picks, whereas every team could accept picks in trade. Draft picks from the upcoming draft are the only ones that can be traded. Look, while free trading of draft picks might make the horsetrading in baseball more fun, the goal of this rule would be to keep teams from crippling themselves long term AND to eliminate yet another way for owners to be cheap because trading a draft pick means they don't have to spend money on SIGNING the guy they drafted at that pick.

    c. Unlike proposals that have been floated, teams could sign up to 5 NDFAs with the top value being $140,000.  Anything over this bonus would count against the draft pool bonus.

    d. Obviously there would be no HS kids drafted and players are eligible for the draft after completing their 2nd year in college. If a player doesn't go to college they would be eligible in the first draft 3 years (2 seasons) after they graduated from high school.

So, we have cut the draft down by 5 rounds to limit the need to fill out your draft with organizational players who have little chance to make the majors.  We have also raised the bonuses for players by extending the slotting down to the end of the 15th round.  Finally, we have added some intrigue by allowing limited trading of draft picks in a way that doesn't allow cheap teams to avoid drafting players just to save money.  

I think this is a good plan but, of course, this is collective bargaining where good plans go to die.

The Case for Eliminating HS Seniors from the MLB Amateur Draft

Recently, as part of their latest proposal, the owners want to eliminate HS kids from the pool of players eligible for the amateur draft.

Given the owners' stance on other topics related to the new CBA, I tried to imagine how this would help the greedy owners to hold onto their money.  

Then something strange happened.  I found myself agreeing with the owners on this one topic.

I think we should limit the MLB draft to college sophomores and higher.

The statistics are compelling.  Before I present those counting stats, a few words about my process.  

A. The first 5 rounds represent 'pure' drafting.  That is, due to the numbers of potential high impact prospects, few college senior signings designed to save money. So, for college kids I used the first five rounds of drafting because it gets messy after that as teams are drafting low cost college seniors whose draft slot is generally not representative of their talent just to save money for a drafteee (usually a HS kid) who will require and over slot bonus.

B. Looking at HS players drafted, I used the first 11 rounds.  HS flyer picks are spread throughout the draft but the better ones are usually in the bonus pool rounds (1-10) and in the 11th round.  After that, the HS kids that are picked are usually low level prospects or, especially with ranked HS kids, contingency picks in case a team has excess bonus money (above slot) that they budgeted but had a player turn down (FYI, they lose the SLOT value if the player doesn't sign but they can still spend the excess they have saved up in the first 10 rounds). So the first 11 rounds is probably a good cutoff of kids they actually intend to sign.

C. I used MLB Pipeline's top 250 rankings.

So , here are the stats:

Of the first 11 rounds (343 picks) only 64 pcks (19%) were used for HS kids.  Only 3/4 of those HS kids were top 250 ranked prospects. The 49 ranked HS kids drafted in the first 11 rounds represents only 50% of the HS kids ranked in MLB's top 250, with the other 50% of the HS kids not being drafted.  

Looking at just the first 5 rounds for college players, of the 123 who were selected in the first 164 picks (41 were HS kids), 108 (88%) were ranked in the MLB's top 250. As expected, after round 5, the number dipped significantly with about 20% of the college players selected in rounds 6-10 being ranked prospects with a large number being drafted, in part, because they would sign for underslot bonuses. 

So, 49 ranked HS kids (about 25% of ranked draftees in the first 10 rounds) are HS kids. So 75% of RANKED prospects drafted in the first 10 rounds are college kids.  

So, what can we glean from this data?  Only about 50% of ranked HS kids are deemed signable or, at least, signable for the bonus they say they want.  Put another way, half of the quality HS kids would rather go to college.  Looking at top prospects and excluding low bonus draftees, we still have 75% of draftees being college kids.

Also, it should be noted that one study showed that 98% of draftees in the first 10 rounds sign so the above numbers not only represent who is drafted but that ranked players usually sign if drafted in the first 10 rounds.  

So what the MLBPA says is, essentially, correct.  Looking at relevant drafted players, most of the draftees are college players.  In addition, 50% of the good HS prospects feel it is in their best interest to go to college, due to some combination of NIL money and the feeling they can develop and do better in the draft after college experience.  

My take on this data is that only a few players would be inconvenienced if we eliminated drafting HS kids entirely.  Also, and this is just my opinion, the vast majority of the HS seniors who are signing are doing it so they can grab the brass ring while it is there, not because they feel pro development is superior to developing their skills in college.

What is indisputable is that teams are spending a lot of money signing HS kids to overslot bonuses.

Additionally, it is very likely that the draft pool of quality prospects in each draft would be almost identical to what it is now, as a HS kid not drafted in 2027 would likely be a quality prospect in the 2029 or 2030 draft.

OK, so the above stats show that not drafting kids out of high school would impact a limited number of prospects, let's talk about the pros and cons of eliminating this group from the draft entirely.

Cons

1. Kids might get injured in college and lose their leverage to get signed

2. Kids might not want to go to college

3. Kids might not get the development in college that they would get as professional players

4. Development would be turned over to the colleges and we have no way of ensuring the training would be as good as these players would get from professional coaches.

5. Many colleges might not have infrastructure to support full scholarships for more talented players or NIL money to offset what these kids would make if they turned pro.

Pros

1. Kids would have an extra 2-4 years of playing baseball before they started playing it for a living

2. Kids would be more physically developed before they started the rigors of professional baseball

3. NIL money would help mitigate, to a small extent, the money these kids would lose by not turning pro.

4. Travel ball for younger kids might be less stressful if players were just playing trying to get a college scholarship as compared to getting a fat pro contract. It doesn't mean that travel ball won't have pressure, but just that the pressure will be different and, IMO, less intense.

5. Development time in the minors would likely be 1-2 years shorter if a player went to college.

6. The current loose transfer portal rules would allow players to move around in college until they found the spot that was right to help their development.

7. This would eliminate putting 18 year olds who may never have lived away from home in less structured situations than they would get in college

8. Even kids who don't necessarily want to go to college would likely benefit in getting a free education in case their professional baseball dreams don't work out.

There are clear tradeoffs here but, similar to other topics in the CBA, discussions, it seems to boil down to one thing: when and how much money will the players be able to grab or the owners be able to keep.  

In my opinion, professional baseball would not be impacted negatively if drafting HS kids was banned, College baseball would be improved and, except for a very few players each year, kids would likely get to the majors at roughly the same rate.

So, let's eliminate drafting HS kids.  

THE OTHER ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

There is still one significant issue that eliminating the drafting of graduated HS seniors will create.

The current amateur player acquisition process creates sort of a continuum of prospects in the minors.

16/17 year old international signees

18/19 year old HS kids

19/20 year old JUCO kids

20-24 year old college kids

If we eliminate drafting of kids who have not completed their sophomore year in college, we would create a gap of 3-4 years between the international FAs and the youngest US drafted player.  The young international kids would have to scale 3 levels (DSL, ASL, A ball) before most would be ready to compete against the youngest US draftee.  

I don't believe it is prudent to just move the signing age for international FAs to sign to match the US draftees.  Even creating an international draft would not help as the young international prospect system is really set up to get these kids into pro ball at a young age as there is no place for them to play and develop for an additional 3-4 years.  There are also socioeconomic reasons why it could be devastating for these young international signees to have to wait 2-3 years longer than they have to sign now.

That 3 year gap in age and development would mean that the international signees would be training against themselves for 3 years which is not ideal for their development, their education or their socialization into professional baseball.    I don't have an answer right now for how to handle this but, clearly, that solution would have to be incorporated into the next CBA.

2026 Draft - My Annual Shadow Draft

 OK, the draft is over and draft grades are starting to come in.  The one I have seen so far gives Cleveland the SECOND LOWEST GRADE IN THE MAJOR LEAUGES for their 2026 draft.

This is the part I hate about a draft.  Looking back and seeing what could have/should have happened.

So here is my draft, most of which is from my pre-draft and after first day mock drafts.  Where guys have already been selected by other teams, I simply slid guys up or plugged in guys of roughly the same ability.

1 - Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arnkansas

2. Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston St.

3. Nathan Taylor, RHP, Cincinnati [NOTE: It was Maxx Yehl but he was taken already]

4. Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA (NOTE: It was Josh McDevitt but he was taken already)

5. Eric Nachtheim RHP, McNeese St.

6. Cam Johnson, LHP, Oklahoma

7. Savion Sims, RHP, HS

8. Chris Katz, 1B, Mercer

9. Gavin Van Kempen, RHP, East Carolina

10. Christian Coppola, RHP, St. Joseph's

11. Mark Quatrani, C, Notre Dame

12. Grayson Fitzwater, 1B, VMI

13. Judd Utemark UTIL Ole Miss

Rounds 14-20 - HS pitchers and college power hitters

NOTE: These were all guys I had mentioned in my posts so I didn't just back engineer this shadow draft.

Willing to put this one in a time capsule and come back in the requisite 5 years.

2026 Draft - Final Comments Before My Shadow Draft

Let's start off by saying what every 'expert' says about a draft.  It's impossible to determine whether a draft is a good one for 5 years.  The problem with that axiom is that if you get to the end of that 5 year period, and you are a limited-resource team AND that draft stunk, you are probably struggling to put a good team on the field. 

So, while you can't FULLY tell how a draft will turn out for 5 years, you can make some pretty clear statements about how the draft will impact your team in the future.

People also will tell you that teams should draft the best available player and not worry about need.  While that is true, there needs to be context there.  Drafting a good college pitcher who should get to and be impactful in the majors in a couple of years has to be compared to drafting a better HS pitching prospect who will take 5 years to establish themselves in the majors and whose group (HS pitchers) have a historically greater chance of failure.

With that being said, the Guardians started the draft with a number of realities

1. Their ML starting pitching is razor thin

2. Their starting pitching depth in the minors is almost non-existent with one real SP prospect, Braylon Doughty, and he is barely starting AA.  There's no one else who even can be considered a real prospect right now, based on the combination of age and minor league performance.

3. The areas of strength and depth in their minor league system are:

    a. Catchers

    b. Outfielders (both contact and power)

    c. Middle Infielders 

    d. HS pitching prospects in the low minors

So entering the draft there were clear areas of need and areas of strength where any prospect added would have to leapfrog to the top the prospect strength for that position.  

So let's see what they did in the draft:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Guardians had a chance to fill the pipeline with what they needed, starting pitching close to the majors.  Instead, the top 3 talents they selected were one college pitcher who needs fixing and two HS pitchers, one of whom is a lottery ticket.  To pay for that lottery ticket they had to spend 3 draft picks in the top 10 on low talent, cheap college seniors, meaning that lottery ticket actually will cost them a lot of money and cost them FOUR picks, instead of one.  Besides those 2 picks, the Guardians drafted 2 college slap hitting OFers, a college catcher who doesn't leapfrog really anyone on their catcher depth chart, a college firstbaseman without power (after drafting 2 of those in the top 10 rounds last year. and, including the college seniors drafted to save money in rounds 8-10, 12 low level college pitchers with little to no chance of ever playing in the majors, if you compare those picks to similar picks from the last 2 drafts.

Draft grade: B- if they are able to maximize Peterson and Schmidt and Sims make the majors; If they can't get those 3 to their potential, this draft is a D-, as there is very little of substance left after those 3 unless some amazing development occurs in players where that wasn't expected.  NOTE: this is not what you wanted to hear with the bad draft of 2025 and the lack of starting pitcher depth in this system. Resource-limited teams like the Guardians need good drafts that keep the line moving in terms of getting prospects to the majors who are impactful.

ROUND-BY-ROUND ANALYSIS

#19 - The Guardians drafted a college pitcher, Liam Peterson.  Peterson has lots of talent but hasn't translated that to performance in 2026. They are counting on their pitching development group to make the changes necessary to turn talent into performance.  To me, he is the 2026 version of Jace Laviolette, a gamble on making changes that will bring the college player to the majors very quickly if they are successful.  If they were going for a college pitcher, they had a chance to draft Hunter Dietz or Taylor Rabe for current performance and future projectability and Cameron Flukey if they wanted a college pitcher who was more highly rated over the winter but had injury and performance issues in 2026

#59 - The Guardians went with a HS pitching prospect, Logan Schmidt. Schmidt was a small bargain (45th ranked player) vs his draft slot (59) but, as a HSer, will cost much more than the slot assigned for that draft slot and will be further away from the majors than a college pitcher.  Ryan Peterson (#86) who was actually seleccted at #71. The upside AND risk for Schmidt is great but this Peterson has good upside and a much quicker path to the majors.  Schmidt is not a bad pick by the Guardians but, given that Peterson would make the majors at least 2 years earlier and have a great chance of making it at all, I would have gone with the greater need, SP closer to the majors.  

#95 - The Guardians selected slap hitting Tre Broussard, a guy with great speed, a good defensive centerfielder but with little power.  They basically drafted Petey Halpin part deux.  

#123 - The Guardians selected Kade Lewis, a college thirdbaseman who will likely end up at first base. He has very little power. Think of CJ Kayfus but without the athleticism to play in the OF.  

#155 - The Guardians selected Lucas Moore, another Petey Halpin clone.

#184 - The Guardians selected Deiten LaChance, a college catcher who doesn't surpass another on the current catching depth chart, falling just below Jacob Cozart.   Possibly they feel this increase in depth will allow them to trade Cozart or, more likely, Cooper Ingle.

#213 - Savion Sims - The Guardians selected an expensive unicorn lottery ticket.  By that I mean he has a huge fastball with good extension but little control or quality secondary pitches.  Whatever length of time it takes to get Schmidt to the majors add 1.5 years to that for Sims.  Basically, he may not make the majors until Jose's contract expires, if then, as he is the classic HS RHP who flares out so often in the minors.

Picks 243 -603 - People may try to point to some redeeming value for these last 13 picks but Guardians' draft history tells me these guys are just organizational filler with maybe one even sniffing the big leagues.  Basically, a waste of 13 picks.  Any player here a match for a similar, recently drafted player.  For exzmple, Ben Cleary is just Tyrese Turner.  Who, you say?  Exactly.

I can't tell you how disappointed I am in this draft.  I will have my shadow draft later tonight but it looks a lot like my last mock draft. that I posted on Friday.

Look, if you are Cleveland and if this draft goes south you just don't recover from it since you can't go out and buy players to offset your draft and international signing mistakes in both selection and strategy..

Hey, at least the ML teams is in first place.  Maybe they can keep this going in future years with more AAAA signings and bargain basement free agents to augment their current, young core.

2026 Draft - Second Day Live Blog

 OK, we're back at it.  The Guardians opened yesterday with 4 picks:

1. Liam Peterson - RHP - Florida: This year's version of Jace Laviolette, Peterson is coming off a disappointing year.  He has great upside.  If you believe in high ceiling low floor in your first round college pitcher draft choice, Peterson is your guy.  There is nothing NOT to like about this pick but, at the same time, Dietz or Rabe would have been much better selections to me as they just need tweaks whereas Peterson needs an overall.

2.Logan Schmidt - LHP - HS - An absolutely great pick here except that by the time Schmidt makes it to majors, Jose Ramirez will be 38 years old.  And that doesn't even count the poor percentage of HS pitchers that make the majors and the even worse percentage of Guardians HS P draft picks that are ML successes.

3. Tre Broussard - OF - Houston - His one plus tool is his speed and he plays good defense, meaning we have drafted a Petey Halpin clone.  And, for a 3rd round pick, that's not the comp you want to have in your 3rd round pick. Did I mention he is yet another LHH?

4. Kade Lewis - 1B - Wake Forest - Lewis is a first baseman w/o much power.  Think CJ Kayfus.  I would feel better about this if the Guardians had a better development record with hitters.

So, we go to day 2 with a very underwhelming group of prospects where only one, Peterson, has much of a chance to positively impact the franchise during the Jose Ramirez contract window. In addition, they have done only a little to address the LARGE void of starting pitching prospects in this organization.

Let's go to Day 2:

 5. Lucas Moore - OF - Louisville - Another LHH outfielder with great speed and ZERO power,  it's hard to believe that they have niw drafted TWO Petey Halpin clones in their first 5 picks.

6.  Delten LaChance - C - Oklahoma - What position in this organization did we not need to draft?  Well, with Bailey, Hedges, Naylor, Huff, Ingle, Cozart, etc., the answer is obvious: CATCHER.  What position are we most in need: College starting pitcher.  So we drafted an incredibly slow-footed catcher meaning a position switch is also problematic.  At least he hits RH and has some power.  My impression of this pick is that the Guardians are chasing ranking numbers to make their draft look better.  You certainly can't say that the Guardians are drafting for need.

7. Savion Sims - RHP - HS - Another highly rated HS pitching prospect, Sims, if he signs, will need a lot of work in the Guardians' pitching lab as his control of his 100 mph fastball is suspect.  This is a good pick except we haven't drafted any good college SPs except for Peterson and we don't have a lot of excess draft pool since we traded away a first round pick with a $3.2 million pool value.

8. Matt Scott - RHP - Georgia - So we start the parade of low ranked college juniors or, in this case, college senior pitchers who have low potential.  This is not what I meant by adding college pitching.  Scott is a reliever and profiles like most round 5-10 college relievers we have drafted: organizational fodder.  Money-saving pick #1

9. Matt Pesca - RHP = Oklahoma State - The second non-descript college senior pitcher in a row, This schtick is a staple of Guardians' drafts but is even more irritating as this draft, so far, has offered very little that will help Cleveland in the next few years.  C'mon guys, it's a little early to start drafting organizational guys, right?  Ovviously trying to save money to sign Sims and Schmidt.

10. Ryan Bilka - RHP - Miami - Another college senior signing.  Just padding the war chest for Schmidt and Sims. Totally nothing for the ML team for years to come, though.

 

2026 Draft - Day 2 Opening Post

 HOW WOULD I HAVE DONE USING MY DRAFT BOARD

I was to going with an all college pitcher draft through round 10.  Like other teams, I wanted my guys and was only moving off them if they had been drafted.  So, let's see what my first 4 rounds would have looked like:

1. Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas

2. Adam Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston St.

3. Nathan Taylor, RHP, Cincinnati

4. Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA

These 4 guys would have been there when I drafted in each round and there the guys I wanted.  Obviously guys like Maxx Yehl, LHP, West Virginia and Josh McDevitt, RHP, Missouri were way overdrafted and so were gone when I would have picked them in my last mock draft.  So I had to pivot.

Right now I am looking at the following picks tomorrow.

5. Cal Randall and, if not, Eric Nachtheim

6. Cam Johnson and, if not, Zane Adams

7. Gage Peterson and, if not, Tyler Fay

 

8. Aiden Weaver and, if not, Beau Bryans

9. Gavin Van Kempen, RHP East Carolina

10. J.P Robertson, RHP, Ole Miss 

My last 10 from my most recent mock draft are still intact after the first day of the draft so as we get through round 10 we'll see how that goes.

2026 Draft - End of First Day Post

 SUMMARY

I think you can summarize the Guardians draft today in four bullets and a note:

1. They drafted Peterson, who is going to require some work to avoid being a bust.  That being said, he was one of the top college pitchers in the draft. If they think they can get to his upside AND if they think he has a better chance to get to that upside than some other college pitchers in this draft, then I hope they are right.

2. They drafted a HS pitcher in the 2nd round.  While he was a good value for the slot, value in the draft is only good if value in the major leagues is obtained.  The Guardians are historically so bad at obtaining ML value from HS pitcher draftees you have to ask yourself if this was a good value pick or just a good window dressing pick. When you consider that Doughty is the only HS pitcher who they have recently drafted who looks like a sure major leaguer, color me unconvinced that this pick was the best resources.

3. Their next two picks were LHH slap hitters.  Did they not learn how fruitless that was from Lampe, Furman, Hawke, Knapczyk and others they recently drafted in the top 5 rounds?  High floor, extremely low ceiling.  Not good!

4. All 4 of their picks today were very young for their class.  That sounds like trying to show you are the smartest guys in the draft.  Here is a thought. Some of the proposals for the next CBA involve free agency after 5 ML seasons and arbitration for everyone after 2 seasons. Thus, by drafting young guys, we could be paying these guys when they are very young and losing them another year before their prime if these rules go through.  Both of these are exacerbated by drafting younger than average guys.

NOTE: Had we had our CB-A pick we could have had our choice of Taylor Rabe or Hunter Dietz with that pick to go with Peterson. 

For comparison sakes, let's compare my last mock draft to this one:

#19: Me: Dietz (#17, went #35)  Guardians: Liam Peterson *#20)

#59: Me: Ryan Peterson (went #71)  Guardians: Logan Schmidt

#99: Me: Mass Yehl (went #91)  Guardians: Tre Broussard

#123: Me Nathan Taylor (went #101)   Guardians: Kade Lewis

So my draft was blow up early as Yehl and Taylor were snatched before I could get them. 

CONCLUSION

Frankly, I don't know where they go from here.  They are in the middle of the top 10 rounds now and this has been increibily unproductive over the past 3 years because of stupid draft strategies like LH slap hitters and pitchers who are way overdrafted.  

Let's hope they can pull their collective heads out of their butts and actually come up with a good draft strategy that will be successful for the next 16 rounds because, right now, this draft is very, very underwhelming and discouraging to me.  Not that it is bad, just that it has a better than average chance to turn out bad and it is based on a failed premise that LH slap hitters will work as a strategy and that we can develop HS pitching prospects into productive major leaguers.  The only group that we have shown the ability to develop is college pitchers and we only drafted one of them in 4 rounds.  So, no, I don't want any Aiden Majros, Dylan DeLucias, etc. tomorrow.  I don't want any more hit-over-power college hitters.  And I doubt that there are any quality college pitchers left.

So where does that leave us?  I don't know but I know that our history in these rounds suck and, somehow, these idiots need to figure out how to save this draft from turning out like 2022, 2023, 2024 and, maybe (time will tell) 2025.  

At leaset the Guardians won today because their draft room didn't, repeating the same things they have failed at in the recent past.