Thoughts For A Friday Morning

 Three regular season games left.  There is a reading between the lines here as there will be more baseball, playoff baseball, October baseball, for the Guardians.

Before we get to this last series I just wanted to say thank you to the Guardians players for making this season another special one.  And thanks to the FO for the deadline deals.  Might some of them blow up in our faces in years to come?  Maybe.  But for right now they all ahve seemed to help, at least somewhat, if not always consently.

I wanted to take a look at some of our players and say thanks individually:

Cade Smith - OMG, you have been such a rock.  Your determinated yet cool composure is great

Jose Ramirez - I know this hasn't been your best season but you are still the GOAT.  However, for the rest of the season just be the guy who keeps the line moving on offense and demands excellent play and leads by example with his teammates.

Daniel Schneeman - I know your playing time has evaporated but not my confidence in you.  As I have said many times, 2 outs down a run in the 9th inning of a playoff game and you are the last guy on the bench.  I feel confident in you coming in ang getting the job done.  You have been the comsummate professional through all your offensive struggles and your defense is top notch.  If I was the GM, you would have that 26th spot on our roster until you retire.

David Fry - Keep your head up.  I still think the 2024 version is in there somewhere.  Maybe not the all-star version of you but an important bench piece if you just find your niche as the 25th guy on the roster.

Travis Bazzana - Watching you your entire pro career I have one thing to say to you.  Swing hard every time.  Weak contact is no contact.  I don't care if you luck into hits with weak contact.  You need to impact the ball.  So, swing hard, every time in every game in every situation.  No hesitation in your body or your mind.  Swing hard.

Brayan Rocchio - You are a ML SS.  You will be an all-star in the future.  But, right now, be playoff Rocchio the rest of this year.  Play with the confidence on offense and defense that we all have in you as a player.

Rest of the team - Fill the roles this team has for you. You have all had your moments this year and just keep doing what you do.  Players like you who have had your moments in the regular season are so much more likely to have those in the post-season.  Be ready.  Have those moments.  Continue to help us win.

Three more games in KC and we need to win them all.  The playoffs start now.  Go Guards!

It's Time To Re-Align - Let's Goooooo

 Expansion has been proposed as part of the new CBA.  My preference is to put a team in Salt Lake City and one in Nashville to bring us up to 32 total.

That being said, here is my realignment plan:

AL Northeast

NYY

Toronto

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

NL Northeast

Boston

NY Mets

Washington

Philadelphia

AL Southeast

Tampa Bay

Nashville

Houston

Texas

NL Southeast

Atlanta

Miami

St. Louis

Cincinnati

AL North

Cleveland

Detroit

Milwaukee

Chicago WS

NL North

Chicago Cubs

Minnesota

Salt Lake City

Kansas City

NL West

LA Dodgers

San Francisco

LA Angels

Las Vegas

AL West

San Diego

Colorado

Arizona

Seattle

So there is my attempt at putting the 32 teams in baseball in divisions.

At 3 games per team against the teams in the other league (45 games) and 7 games per team in your own league outside of your division (84), that leaves 11 games per team inside your division (33) to give a 162 game schedule. 

Playoffs would be the division champions (8) and the top 2 records in each league (4) to give the same number of teams (12 in the playoffs). Same playoff format as currently exists EXCEPT I would eliminate 5 games series in the ALDS and replace with 7 game series.  

Thoughts for a Friday - Nine Games To Go

 Lots to talk about relative to our first place Cleveland Guardians.  

Reminds me of a funny story that I hope doesn't repeat itself with our baseball team.  A number of years ago, before they were national champions, the Indiana Hoosiers came to Ohio State to play the Buckeyes in football and, as fate had it, Indiana scored first, taking a 7-0 lead.  As the legend goes, during the TV timeout after the extra point, the Indiana coach had his entire team pose in front of the scoreboard that showed them being ahead of the Buckeyes.  I think the final score was like 63-7.  Let's hope we haven't poked the bear by beating the White Sox the last two days.

Thursday night brought us Texas losing at the end to Boston (good for us because it moved us further ahead of Texas and cemented Boston as the #2 wild card which might help us when we go to Boston next week).  It saw Murikami hit a 3-run homer in the first for Chicago's only runs against Detroit and Houston predictably beat up KC at home.    

The stage is set.

The Guardians are tied in the standings with the White Sox for the AL Central Title

They are two games ahead of Toronto for the Wild Card

They are two games ahead of Texas for the Wild Card

They are one game ahead of Houston for the 2nd seed in the AL

Obviously, the Guardians do not own the tiebreaker over Toronto or CWS but do own the tiebreaker over Texas and Houston.

You will read countless articles between now and the end of the season about playoff scenarios but scoreboard watching on Thursday night reminds me that there is only one certainty: if you keep winning good things will likely happen.  Happened in 2024. Happened in 2025.  Yes, Toronto and Chicago have easy schedules. Texas and Houston have similar schedules to Cleveland.  But you just have to keep winning.

So, let's go Guardians!  L

Let's hope the crowd is effective at giving us a big home field advantage this weekend and we use it.

Let's hope the boys play their best, most solid baseball of the year, batters work deeep in counts and pitchers get ahead early in counts and our hitters do what is necessary to score runs in picket fences with the occasional crocked numbers.

These are our boys of summer and, though we're moving into fall, more than anything else, I hope they keep making great memories for themselves and for us fans. Go Guardians!

Thoughts For A Tuesday Morning - Hangover from the Biggest Game of the Season That Wasn't

Have Hope - Last Night Just Made It A Little Harder

 First, no season hangs on one AB or one pitch.  Yeah, Peters had a historically crazy long AB, Lowe screwed up, Rocchio didn't make a spectacular play to get Benitendi to open the inning and Herrin threw gasoline on the fire.

But we are only 1.5 games out of the lead in the AL Central and, thanks to the Tigers' fight and grit last night, we still hold a one game lead over Blue Jays.

Of the three teams (CLE, CWS, TOR) the Guardians have the most difficult remaining schedule.  And even Texas is still lurking as the slight dark horse in all this.

All we have to do is take care of business.

1. We need to win the next two games against Chicago to stay close.

2. We need to win the rest of our series to not require A LOT of help from the teams Chicago and Toronto play.

3. We need to pitch, hit, run the bases and play defense at a very high level. But this this under-resourced team, when has that NOT been true this season.

But there is hope.  Win the next game. Then the next. Win the next series and don't get wrapped around the axel if we don't sweep series.

It is still there for our taking.  We can win the division...or we won't.  We can be the 3rd wildcard...or we won't.

I just ask fans to keep the over-reaching negativity to a minimum.  Yeah, be ticked about the one inning last night. Be ticked about the one inning on Saturday.  But, in the past two weeks, that's all it's been...two really bad innings. 

It all comes down to the players now.  Let's just get it done, guys.

Random Thoughts About Last Night's Game

1. I know it's just my thing, but I really want Kwan to get his 5th gold glove and he will only do that in LF.

2. Bazzana, on defense, is really bad.  The throw from Kwan should have resulted in an out. He is the caution cone people say he is.  His work taking throws from the catcher and the OF is just freaking abysmal.  He will need to work in the OF in the off-season.

3. I hope Martinez is not hurt but I am pretty sure he is going to the IL for the rest of the season. He should have come out when he felt something even though it was in the middle of his AB.  His machismo cost us that AB because he had no ability to hit the ball on his last two swings.  This is a team game, Angel, and you need to learn when to gut it out and when not to.  If, in fact, he is done for the rest of the season, he should have been pulled in the middle of that AB.

4. In the face of frustration last night, one ironically comical, nervous laugh-generating moment did occure.  Fry, who came in for Lowe, mad a weak out against a LHP but hit a HR against a RHP, supporting his splits this year.  How does that make you feel, analytics nerds, who have no doubt promoted the platoon idea re. Fry this year.  

5. We simply need to take advantage of our chances on offense.  There is no other way to say it.  We have to be able to make up for pitching or defensive gaffes.

6. Two throws last night made me scratch my head:

a.    Bailey's setup on the bases-loaded grounder to Ramirez was very bad.  He should have been on the fair side of home plate with his left foot ont the plate so Ramirez had a lane to throw. Instead, Ramirez had to make an unbelievably risky throw that almost hit the runner.  I mean, from the Ramirez-eye replay, you couldn't even see Bailey with the runner coming down the line. No excuse for that.

b. Lowe's error could have been avoided if Rocchio had been on the infield side of second base. Instead, he didn't give Lowe an angle to throw, leading to the error. Yeah, the runner being where he was did contribute but, actually, Rocchio didn't have to be on the bag when he took the throw to defintely get one out and still maybe get a DP.

Both these defensive plays were inexcusable when you knew you had to play solid defense because you offense wasn't producing.

Summary

Let's go Guards. Your back is againstt the wall.  This is when champions come through.  Let's be champions!  Just win every series from now on and let the chips fall where they may.

Thoughts for A Wednesday - Sick Dog Version

 OK, our puppy is sick tonight so I am sitting up with her and, as I had some thoughts rattling around inside my skull, I thought I would post.

PLAYOFF RACE

We enter Wednesday trying to win the series from the Orioles.  All games are important now but my thoughts here revolve around moving forward.  For the Orioles, they came into this series knowing their backs were against the wall.  Being 4 games behind the Guardians for the 3rd wildcard spot, their only chance was to sweep.  That is, they had to sweep to continue forward momentum.  With one of the strongest (5th overall) remaining schedules and with every team in front of them having a somewhat (Texas, Houston) or very much weaker TOR (24th), CWS (29th), Cleveland (22nd) and Seattle (30th) less strong schedule, even one loss puts a damper on their playoff chances. 

For the Guardians, they still have their fate in their hands. Let's look at their path, as I see it:

1. Win out - If they continue winning, they are in the playoffs. 

2. If they lose, get help from other teams. Toronto lost a game to the Athletics, the White SOx to Pittsburgh. But the odds are stacked against them as the teams closest to them: WC - Toronto and AL Central - CWS have weaker remaining schedules.

3. White Sox series - Chicago didn't expect to be hanging around at this point.  But they are.  If one team sweeps this series they will likely be in the playoffs.  It they don't, they will spend three of their remaining games and only pick up or lose, at the most, one game.

4. Have things break just right.  I don't know how the Orioles finale will go but looking at the Guardians remaining schedule, it looks like, except for the White Sox series, things may break just right for the Guardians in terms of playing only teams that have nothing to play for except pride.  Minnesota is just coming off functionally being eliminated from WC or ALC contention. This is a fresh wound and maybe they will be down during the series with Cleveland.  After the White Sox come to town the Athletics show up and they are not currently playing well.  The last two series are on the road vs the Red Sox and Royals.  When Cleveland heads into Boston there will be 6 games left in the season.  The hope is that the Red Sox will be firmly entrenched in the second wild card spot at that point. They will be too far behind the Yankees to catch up and they will be too far ahead of Cleveland to get knocked down to the 3rd WC spot.  Boston's fate will then be sealed: win a best of 3 in NY in the WC round and then face the Rays in the 5 game ALDS, both on the road.  Both are daunting tasks and if they don't have anything to win or lose in this series they may take the pedal off the gas.   The last series in KC may be crucial and, at the same time, tough for the Guardians as it will be the final series of the year for the Royals at home AND Cleveland is a division rival adding more incentive to finish strong.  But if their remaining schedule has worn them down they may have run out of steam by that point and Cleveland may be able to sneak by them if the stakes for the Guardians are high.  

ROSTER SITUATION

We still do not have the optimal roster in my opinion.   Ralphy Velasquez is still languishing in AAA and we only have 2 solid SPs.

What do we do?

Well, unless Stephen Vogt and Chris Antonnetti want to grab their fiddles and play a duet as they watch our playoff chances for 2026 burn to the ground, there seems to be only 2 things that can be done, barring injuries:

1. Call up Ralphy:  The timing is not optimal as, like trading for Lowe, Adell, Yoho and Griffin, we may make it so Ralphy can't play in AAA next year if there is a lockout.  We need the bat.  He can play LF if needed but DH/1B is an option.  But if he comes up, he plays. No platoon with Fry.  Ralphy plays

2. Rework the rotation.  We may have to lean on Williams, Messick and magic man Griffin and some form of two bullpen/piggyback games.  So maybe Bibee goes once through the order with Festa warming up and then we use the bullpen the remainder of the game and then do a Cecconi/Cantillo piggyback the other game.  

3. Pray for rain: Well, the Spahn and Sain and pray for rain gimmick worked for the Braves years ago so maybe it can work for us, just substituting Messick and Williams for the two HOFers in the orgingal phrase.

Well, my puppy is still sick but I am done for the night.  GO GUARDIANS  

Thoughts For A Labor Day

 THE STRETCH RUN

Twitter is figuring out how difficult it is to catch teams that are even a little in front of you or hold off teams that are a little behind you when both of those types of teams have easier schedules.  The goal was to beat teams like the Mets and Royals to build up a little lead to put the pressure on teams like the White Sox and the Blue Jays.

So, the Guardians need to take care of their own business and look for help from other teams to make the playoffs.  It's not a desperate situation yet but every loss, and there will be some, will be like a dagger to their playoff chances.  

So it starts today against the Orioles who are likely done in terms of making the playoffs just because of the number of teams in front of them for the 3rd wildcard.  The problem is that there is still a glimmer of hope, with a HUGE dose of desperation.  So, it would really help if we win the first game.  However, while winning this series would probably remove any doubt about the Orioles being in the playoffs, it would also put them into getting-ready-for-nest-year mode meaning they would be less likely to beat the Blue Jays in the SIX remaining games they have with them.  Can you say double edged sword? 

So it becomes as proceed to Minneapolis this weekend.  Next week has a double dose of critical games (White Sox) and MORE critical games (Athletics) which end our home schedule.  Yeah, the CWS series is important but if we don't win 3 games we don't make up much ground. We will be fortunate to win 2 of 3 from the White Sox meaning we will need help to win the series.  Going 2-1 against Chicago, assuming we can take care of business this week, means that a sweep against the A's is crucial next weekend.

And so on...

RALPHY

Anyone who thinks a miracle will occur and we will go on a hot offensive streak in these last 18 games is not seeing what is going on.  DeLauter out for an indeterminate amount of time, Jose being debilitated as he recovers from hamate bone surgery and Adell and James looking more human is not a good recipe.  If you don't believe that we continue to be in trouble offensively remember that we NEVER led in any of the games against Detroit...until we walked off each of our 3 victories.  We didn't jump out early and we were always playing catchup against one of the worst teams in baseball right now and, remember, it's not WHO you play, it's how they are playing at that moment. 

So, we need offensive help.  We need a jolt.  We need Ralphy.  Is he the answer? Who knows. But right now Lowe is not the answer and, in fact, he is crack cocaine to Vogt, something none of us need when we just weened Vogt off of Hoskins.  

There is no reason not to promote Ralphy.  Keep him off the 40 a year before he has to be added? Allow him to play in the minors if there is a strike? He still has holes in his game?  There are arguments against all those arguments, but the only important argument is will he help us win games we wouldn't have won if we DIDN'T promote him?  Frankly, I can't see how any fan or Cleveland Guardians employee could say anuthing but YES.

Reading the first section of this post should tell you that this is EXACTLY the level of desperation, i.e.,, we're not quite at desperation levels yet, when we benefit the most by his promotion.  

MINOR LEAGUE SEASONS WINDING DOWN

This is always the tough time of year for us prospect geeks.  Our minor league teams, one by one, are ending their seasons.  But there are rays of sunshine from this year that should keep us warm all winter:

1. The 2025 college hitter draft is producing some exciting results.  Not ready to change my rating on this draft but one thing is for sure: LaViolette, Schubart, Walton, Curley and Hill are exciting hitters.  Add in the breakout year by Cesarini and the mini-breakout year by Bennett Thompson and the renewed prospect status of Jason Churio, and we have a lot to dream on.  Still too many Ks, still some questionable defense and maybe a lot of tweener guys aside, these guys were FUN to watch and I look forward to more next year.  We can no longer say that these guys were just beating up on younger competition.  If they continue on the steep part of their development curve we could have some really good ML players come out of that draft.  Sprinkle in our other young guys in AAA and the majors and our hitters in this organization are on a HUGE upswng.  

2. The Guardians have a recent habit of putting their college draft choices in low A Hill City in their draft year or, for lower round picks, in their first full season.  These guys don't always dominate, raising immediate red flags.  But this year, these guys ARE performing.  So, given the 2025 draft class, there is more hope for the 2026 college hitter class than I previously thought.  Still don't like that draft but I am at least willing to admit that the Guardians may, in some cases, indeed be the smartest guys in the draft room.  Time will tell.

3. International amateur free agents - Look, the Guardians tend to spread their money around in signing amateur international free agents.  This year we are starting to see the advantage of that strategy. Dauri Fernandez, Junker Caceras, Reiner Herrera and even the recently traded Alejandro Rivera have already had success in the US minor leagues. And I don't want to forget about Robert Arias.  He suffered a severe leg injury this year but before that, he was looking, to me, like a very easy top 100 prospect in baseball.  As he works through his rehab, I still feel that next year he could continue the breakout that he started this year and by next September at this time, we could be dreaming on his potential.  Swert Reinoso, although only a good prospect when signed in January 2026, is already looking like he might be a steal.  So maybe even the hitters in the lower minors may be pushing their way to the top of prospect lists.

4. Pitching black hole - Look, everyone knows how genius the 2021 college pitcher draft turned out to be. 2022 was no different as Messick and Campbell look like top shelf pitchers.  However, after the 2nd round in 2022 the Guardians, inexplicably, stopped drafting top college pitchers.  This has created a black hole in our farm system and, frankly, I don't know where our replacements will be coming from on the pitching front.  Braylon Doughty looks very, very solid but that is about it.  Looking at the 2026 minor league stats, Cleveland's draft strategy has left the cupboard bare of pitching prospects and that could come back to bite us.  So we will need some developmental miracles to get any pitching out of our system outside of Doughty.  Let's hope it happens.

4. No playoffs...thankfully.  While breeding winning is more essential in the minor leagues than some people say it is, minor league playoffs are not necessary.  In fact, they provide the exact type of mirage stats and performances that create false hope.  Joey Oakie's dominance as a very young pitcher at Hill City at the end of last year gave the impression that he was on the fast tract.  His uneven performance this year at that same level gave a more real impression of exactly who he was drafted to be: a kid with a great arm and work ethic who needed LOTS of polishing.  It is no surprise that Doughty sprinted by Oakie.  Except for the mirage created at the end of 2025, us prospect geeks would have never been fooled.  So, minor league playoffs are cute but clearly, on any level, unnecessary, IMO.

It's Labor Day. There are 18 ML regular season games left for Cleveland.  Go Guardians!!1!

Thoughts For A Thursday - August 27th Edition

 On this off-day I had a lot of thoughts rattline around in my head:

The Guardians Hold Their Fate In Their Own Hands

This seems trite but looking at the remaining schedule, except for KC and Detroit, most of their opponents are exactly the ones they are fighting against, for the Central championship and the wildcard.  So often you need help from other teams to win a battle like this...and of course we appreciate any help we can get.  But the Guardians get to fight this out head to head.  Even the games against KC (who is extremely hot right now) and Detroit will not be easy as divisional games carry their own bragging rights, no matter the standings. We still have the 26th ranked strength of schedule so that helps.  But, no matter how this season turns out, this schedule is exactly who we want to play to EARN a post-season spot, and I am happy about that.

Don't Look Now, But Here Come The Mariners

For the last several weeks I preached patience and that by September 1st we would know where we were.  Why? Because we played nothing but teams that had bad overall records that it was our chance to make up ground quickly.  And we did.

But don't look now but Seattle is within 3 games of the AL West lead and 5 games of the 3rd wildcard and their remaining schedule has a .436 winning percentage.  That's .043 easier than the Guardians who sit 26th.  So, the Mariners WILL make up games and, IMO, are the current favorites to sneak up and win the AL West.  What happens to Texas and Houston will help determine the third wildcard team.

Ralphy or No Ralphy

That debate is all the rage on Twitter and other media.  So here's my take:

1. The "Ralphy is not being promoted" crew rightly cite that if he is promoted this year (one year before he has to be added to the 40-man) he could potentially not get to play next year during whatever work stoppage there is since guys on the 40-man would not be eligible to play in the minors.  While that is true, realize that MANY good prospects willl have to be rostered by teams this winter that the talent in AAA will be so diluted next year that it will look more like a AAAA league than it usually does  Currently, the average age in the International League is almost 27 years old.  This could spike to almost 28 years old or higher if guys like Velazquez *21 years old) can't play there next year.  Do you really think it is helpful next year for Ralphy to play against AAAA competition or get a taste of the majors this year and maybe help the team get to and do well in the playoffs?

2. The "Bring Ralphy Up Now" crew says that this team could use the jolt that he would bring.  While I think there is some of that (see Genao and even Watson promotions) we have to realize that Ralphy is far from a finished product and an Ingle-like debut is possible.  Plus, if CDL is limited to DH most of September, there really isn't a place for Ralphy.  But if Ralphy is brought up after September 1st his ABs don't count against his rookie eligibility but can help the team (Evan Carter for Texas a couple of years back). 

So where do I stand? Bring him up once the rosters expand.  You have to bring up someone and I just don't see how bringing up Watson, Schnee, Manzo, Ingle are going to help this team down the stretch any more than Ralphy would. You gotta bring someone up so bring up someone who might help now and in the playoffs.  Those other guys can still be added to the playoff roster (if we get there) in case of injuries but Ralphy is lightning in a bottle here and, despite his positional limitations, he's more likely to give us one good month than these other guys.

Who Is The Pitcher We Call Up?

We have a conondrum. We can bring up one pitcher come September 1st. We can also possibly demote Allen and maybe even Festa.  We have Espino, Aleman and Cecconi who could possible help our bullpen be more solid with Cecconin giving us Allen-like length.  

However, upsetting the apple cart at this point, with Festa and Allen pitching well, has significant risk associated with it. It's the brass ring grab hoping for additional victories (Aleman, Espino, Cecconi) or the status quo is good (Allen, Festa and, probably Cecconi) or some combination of the two.

How will they go?  I think, on September 1st, they will call up Cecconi and Espino and demote Allen. They will hold Aleman and Allen in reserve at AAA in case of injuries or bad performance by Espino.  Festa is just too solid right now and Espino and Cecconi add so much potential strength to this bullpen I can't see them going for less than this.

One other point: Ben Lively was, until tonight, looking good.  I think he may be a wildcard playoff pssibility but I see him spending the rest of CBus' season strengthening and lengthening.  

Latest MLB Proposal - More Rule 5 BS

Only if you are new here is there the possibility that you might think I liked MLB's proposal about the Rule 5. In fact I hate both sides' Rule 5 proposals.

I have shown in an earlier article that the ML portion of the Rule 5 doesn't work at the current eligibility levels.  Yet both sides want to shorten the time between a player being acquired and being R5 eligible? Absolutely stupid and showing an extreme lack of understanding of the Rule 5 draft and how totally worthless it is.  Which makes me laugh at the most recent proposals on this subject.

So, let me get this straight. Both MLB and MLBPA want to make players LESS experienced before they get this make-or-break opportunity to make a ML roster.  Plus the MLB put icing on that cake by saying that teams could possible send a Rule 5 pick to the minors.  Really?  How many times and ways do I have to provide data that says the Rule 5 doesn't work.  And that data doesn't include the likely millions of dollars that is spent by ML teams agonizing over who to protect and then figuring out if players from other teams might be good Rule 5 picks.

I have an idea. DO AWAY WITH THE DAMN RULE 5 DRAFT AND LET THESE GUYS DEVELOP IN THE SYSTEM THAT ACQUIRED THEM. I am fine with shortening minor league free agency to 5 years for college draftees or NDFAs.  I am even fine with shortening the time for ML free agency to 5 years of service time.  Plus, the overall roster restrictions in the affiliated US minor leagues for teams has already allowed players mobility that they didn't have a few years ago as every draft cycle causes minor leaguers to be cut so teams' draftees can be placed on this 165 player list each team has. But the crap these guys are proposing? No way.

Stop the BS.  Teams should get to fully develop the players they draft or sign as NDFAs.  Implementing any of the crap that has been suggested gives thos teams that spend the money to bring in players less of a chance to do that and, frankly, could lead to more trading of draft picks because those picks are less important if players don't get to develop. And, yes, living through Ted Stepien and DeShaun Watson, among others, I do not want front offices and cheap owners to have any more impetus to devalue obtaining amateur talent than they already do.  Allowing trading of draft picks allows them to do just that. As a fan of the Cleveland Guardians that is the exact opposite of what should happen.