The Drafts Going Forward

 Short post as I have covered this ground before in different posts but I just wanted to summarize here.

CBA negotiations should be speeding up but there appears to be no rush. Time will tell how serious the two sides are.  

But today let's talk about what I think should happen with the drafts.  Yes, that is plural, as in international draft (new) and the existing amateur (Rule 4) draft. 

INTERNATIONAL DRAFT

This is sorely needed. Here is how I think it should work:

1, Starting in January, 2028

2. Five rounds

3. No compensation picks

4. Teams can lose their first round pick by being over luxury tax threshold

5. Bonuses for 5 rounds determined by top 150 international signings over the previous 3 years

6. No trading of draft picks

7. Teams must spend >95% of their bonus pool or be fined

8. Players must be 17 years old at the time of the draft turning 18 by the September of their draft year.

9. Each team can sign 10 NDFAs @ no more than $20,000 each before it counts against their bonus pool.

10. International signees not eligible for the Rule 5 (if it is continued).  Governed, instead, by 6-year minor league free agent rule

NORMAL (RULE 4) DRAFT

1. 15 rounds

2. Only players who are 20 years old or older at time of the draft are eligible

3. Most of draft pick rules regarding gain or loss of picks remain the same

4. No loss of draft pick for signing a QO free agent

5. All 15 rounds are slotted.   6. Draft bonuses flattened out at top so slot for last pick in the 15th round is slotted at $100,000

7. Up to 10 NDFAs can be signed per team with a slot value of $35,000 each. Overages count against a team's bonus pool.

8.  No trading of draft picks

9. Teams must use >95% of their draft pools or be fined.

10. No Rule 5 draft.  Rule 4 draft picks are eligible for minor league free agency on the following schedule

    a. Drafted when 23 or older - eligible after 3 seasons (not counting year they are drafted)

    b. Drafted when 21 or 22 years old - eligible after 4 seasons

    c. Drafted when 20 years old, eligible after 5 seasons

11. All other draft rules remain the same

12. RELATED RULE - International professional free agents are only eligible to be signed at 25 or older.

That summarizes my thoughts on drafts going forward.  What are your thoughts?

There's A Difference Between The Results And How You Get There!

 I was thinking today about the Guardians the last decade or so, and especially the last 3 years.  

THE RESULTS

Make no mistake about it.  What the Guardians have produced the last 3 years is absolutely astonishing.  They clearly have exceeded expectations all 3 years.  No way should they have won 3 division titles or go to 2 ALCS series in that time.

No way.

But they did, thanks to Vogt, the coaching staff and, especially the players.  The phrase 'guttng it out' doesn't do their performance justice but it's the best I can come up with.

Outperformed expectations, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, teamwork makes the dream work, getting a lot out of a little, Guards Ball...whatever you want to call it.=.

No front office, coaching staff or set of players could have ever done better.

HOW THEY GOT THERE

This is where the results diverge from ownership effort to get us over the top.  It also diverges from where the front office's decisions and gambles could easily be called into questions.  Hey, you got $100, you don't buy $100 worth of Hershey's kisses.  You buy a cow, not a bunch of magic beans, you buy Microsoft (back in the day) not a bunch of penny stocks you hope 'hit/

Well, you get my idea. 

We have had to endure the Stuart Fairchilds, Rhys Hoskins, Will Wilsons, Connor Brogdons, Estevan Florials, Scott Barlows, Tyler Beedes, Spencer Howards over the last 3 years.  Yes, a number of our own prospects failed during that time but they were our prospects and it was their first time failing.  The guys above? They had failed numerous times before they ever got here.

Face it, we tried to land Colin Holdermans but mostly landed guys who should have never, ever played in Cleveland.  Embarassingly bad guys!

Yet we still won IN SPITE of these guys and the FO who saddled this team with them.

Partly on the owner but mostly these guys are on the FO for ever allowing them to impact (mostly negatively) the team's performance.

The fact that the team could have won the division 3 years in a row having to play guys like this is mindblowing. 

SUMMARY

So, in 2027, no more of these kinds of AAAA guys.  NONE.  Give us decent FAs or give us prospects.  Hey, those prospects may fail or like Angel and Genao they may add something or, like Bazzana and DeLauter, maybe more than something.

Enough guys we have to win IN SPITE OF.  Please.

It's That Time of Year

 Free agency is just starting and fans are expecting their team to make a big splash to spice up their hot stove season.

So the Guardians picked up Jose Tena on waivers.

Now that will not immediately impact the 40 man roster that is currently at 37 with Tena.

However, this could impact the Guardians when it is time to set their roster for the Rule 5 draft.

We have 4 guys we SHOULD be protecting: Chourio, Campbell, Huff and LIvely.

In order to do that we will have to DFA someone.

While Perkins is the obvious choice, if you want a guy like Tena why not just keep Brito.

But, rosters are fluid at this time of year. These types of moves usually end up in nothing..until they do.  

Rather have led with a signing of Skubal but the suspense before they announce that signing will only add to the joy after they do announce it!

 

Thoughts For A Wednesday - My Truth About the Upcoming CBA Negotiations

 So MLB has put another proposal together and MLBPA has spit in the face of an MLB proposal...again.

So, on an election day filled with drama MLB and MLBPA felt the need to add more.

Fine.

But thinking about the CBA and the posturing is going on, does help crystallize my 'truth'.

So here it is:

1. A cap/floor system is not going to help Cleveland sign free agents at the same salary they can get in more desirable locations.  So a floor should start low ($130 MM) and go up $10 MM per year to $180 MM)

2. Remove the draft pick loss for signing a QO FA.  If Cleveland signs a QO FA it will hurt them to lose a draft pick more than it will hurt the Dodgers or the Yankees.

3. Keep PPI and Competitive Balance extra draft picks.  These favor smaller market teams and we should NEVER do anything to change things that we currently have that favors small market teams.

4. If we limit the R4 draft to college sophomores and older, the Rule 5 could work for guys who were Rule 4 eligible.

5. Institute an international draft where kids have to be 17 at draft time to be drafted but those kids are never eligible for the ML Rule 5 draft.   Rather, they are governed by the current 6 year minor league free agent rule.

6. A floor needs to come with a $2 MM base salary in MLB, a $2.5 MM second year salary and arbitration after the second year.

7. A form of a cap like the NBA where  a team over the cap is restricted in what high-salary players you can obtain.

8. Any revenue sharing has to come with forensic accounting. 

9. Teams should not be allowed to trade draft picks.  This is a way that owners can cheap out if a floor is instituted.  Teams should ahve to spend 95% of their draft budget or be fined.

10. The MLBPA needs to start proposing tweaks to MLB's proposal instead of just rejecting them out of hand.

More later... 

Thoughts For A Monday Night - Awards Season Begins

 KWAN COMES UP SHORT

As I mentioned several hundred times in the past two months, the Guardians maximized their offense by playing Steven Kwan in centerfield this season but, in so doing, they screwed his chances of getting his 5th Gold Glove.

The GG rules say that if you split your time between two positions the one you play the most innings at is the only one you are Gold Glove-eligible for.

If the Guardians were looking (or reading my stuff either here or on X) they would have known how close he was to having more innings in LF than in CF.  

I get that CF is where the Guardians thought they needed him, but he finished with 10.1 innings more in CF than in LF.  If they had just played him one more game in LF rather than CF, he would have won his 5th Gold Glove.  Instead, he finished behind Cedanne Rafaela, who is clearly the Kwan version of AL centerfielders. 

It is a tribute to the work Kwan put in and his team-first attitude in moving to CF and doing an excellent defensive job there.  It is a black mark against the Guardians that they couldn't manage his LF/CF innings even a little bit to make sure he qualified as a left fielder where he is head and shoulders above any other AL left fielder.

BIBEE IS GOLDEN

Congratulations to Tanner Bibee.  He had a tough year this year but he at least came away with his first Gold Glove and, frankly, he probably should have had one last year with his athleticism and top shelf pickoff move.

PARKE MESSICK = PPI Pick

I have been saying for two months now how the Guardians should forget about pimping Messick as the AL ROTY because he had two strikes against him with the way Kevin McGonigle played most of the season.  

I said over and over again that the Guardians should be pimping him for the AL Cy Young award as just being a finalist would give the Guardians PPI draft pick next year.  To show how valuable that is, the pick we would get would be essentially equivalent to the one that got us Patrick Bailey this year, assuming we don't sign one of 8 free agents who have a qualifying offer, in which case we would forfeit that pick as it would be our second pick in the draft..  

So, while we all would love to see Parker win the Cy Young AND ROTY (or either, actually) the important thing for the team is that his performance got us a huge draft pick next year.

CADE SMITH 

Cade is a finalist for reliever of the year and it is well-deserved.  What a great season he had this year and we are extremely lucky as a team to have him as our closer.  What a great close he is! Thanks, Cade for a great season.

So, that's it for now.  More awards coming up but, so far, it's been a good off-season for the Guardians.

Changes To The Draft And Prospect Retention In The New CBA

 Over the last year I have written several articles on changes in the new CBA that could, in my opinon, help baseball.  As we approach the lockout, I wanted to refresh those and will begin by talking about a few ways I see that the process of acquiring amateur talent could be helped.  Some of this is under the framework set up by proposals from the MLBPA and MLB on the subject.  

1. Eliminate Drafting of High School Players in the Rule 4 Draft

This has been proposed by MLB, likely because these players come with the highest risk and, generally, require much larger bonuses than college kids. The plan is to limit drafting of players to college sophomores and above. The perception that MLB owners are cheap SOBs is just dripping from this proposal.

After thinking about it, however, I agree with not drafting HS players because:

(1) Only about 50 top-ranked HS kids (75-80 total HS players) are drafted each year with not all of them signing.  About 50% of top-ranked HS prospects are not even drafted, likely based on salary demands fueled, in some cases, by whether teams think those demands are in line with their talent.

(2) Losing these players from the draft pool would not impact:

    (a) the long-term quality of the draft (just make the draft 2-3 years later that much stronger)

    (b) the quality at the bottom of the next couple of drafts, especially if the draft was shortened, would not suffer as the differences between players near the end of the draft is small and certainly any differences are in the eye of the beholder.

(3) The current Rule 5 (and proposed changes to that draft) generally exposes HS players to that (R5) draft well before they are ready to make their ML debuts.

(4) The maturity level of 17/18 year old HS players makes it non-optimal for them to go into professional baseball right out of high school where they would be dealing with older players and outside influences that could easily have a detrimental effect on their development.

(5) Eliminating HS players from the draft eliminates the perceived negative impacts (costs, time consumed, pressures) of the travel ball/showcase circuits.  That is, the goal would switch from being one of a few HS players to get drafted to one of many HS players who will earn college baseball scholarships. It also removes any coaching designed to highlight attributes that pro scouts are looking for compared to the more developmental attributes college coaches would be looking for.

(6) The House vs NCAA settlement actually helps as college teams can now have up to 34 full scholarship players instead of the previous limits of 13.7 full scholarships that could be divided between all players on a college team.  This, plus NIL money, could make it more comfortable for these players to go to college before they turn pro, giving them extra experience to make them more ready for pro ball. MLB needs to lean into this by setting up a competitive scholarship fund for needy players, including NIL opportunities for those players.

(7) While I hate the ML Rule 5 draft and want it discontinued, if it stays, eliminating high school players from the draft could allow for the proposed changes to the R5 draft (i.e., players to be R5 draft eligible one year sooner than they are now) to be more doable as college sophomores and juniors could, in theory, take 2-3 years less to get to the majors than HS kids would.

While I agree with not including HS players in the draft going forward, this would have to come with other changes to the draft.

2. Other Changes To The Rule 4 Draft

(1) 15 round draft (to help account for the lack of HS players in the draft)

(2)  All picks in those 15 rounds have slot bonuses assigned (same range as before, just spread out over 15 rounds).

(3) No trading of draft picks before those in the 11th round, Teams receiving competitive balance picks would not be eligible to trade draft picks, only receive draft picks in trades.

(4) Unlimited signing of NDFAs with a cap on $100,000 per NDFA with excess bonuses counted against bonus pool [NOTE: this is vastly different than the owners' proposal which limits the bonuses to $1000 for NDFAs and limits the number of NDFAs that a team can sign].

(5) Draft-and-follow of JUCO players eliminated...again

(6) Teams have to spend at least 95% of their draft budget or be fined

3. Establishment of An International Amateur Draft

The current international amateur signing system is seriously flawed and ripe with the opportunity for corruption.  At the same time, the reality is that the socioeconomics don't favor one set of rules for Rule 4 and international amateur player acquisitions. So here is what I consider a fair system if MLB institutes an international amateur draft.

(1) 5 rounds/150 players at most

(2) Draft in January so players can play in the DSL that summer

(3) Age limit for draft will be at least 17 years old at the time of the draft

(3) Draft order is based on reverse order of finish from previous year.  No compensation picks like those in the R4 draft.

(4) Bonus slots will be based on top 150 international bonuses from each of the last 2 years 

(5) International amateur NDFAs could sign for up to $10,000 without counting against a teams bonus pool.

(6) No trading of international draft picks

(7) Teams must spend at least 95% of their international bonus pool or be fined

(8) OPTIONAL: Teams receiving competitive balance picks will be granted an additional $2 MM per draft to their draft pool

(9) International signees would not be eligible for the ML R5 draft and their minor league free agency would be governed by the current 6-year minor league free agent rules.

4. Rule 5 Draft and Minor League Free Agency 

(1) The changes in the Rule 5 draft have been mentioned above for Rule 4 (and international amateur) draftees and NDFAs

(2) Players obtained through the Rule 4 draft process (draftees and NDFAs) will be eligible for minor league free agency if they turn 25 before the end of the regular season if they are not placed on a major league roster by November 1st. International amateur players would become minor league free agennts by the same rules that currently exist for minor league free agents.

26/40-man Roster Projections. Let's Goooooo!

Wow, as I was working on this Guardians Twitter  blew up with a widget/app/whatever that allows you to predict the roster for your team in 2027. So I finished this in a hurry. Here is how it goes.

OK, the 2026-7 off-season has officially begun.  I wanted to start this off-season looking at our 40-man roster and see where the Guardians are and where I think they will be going. so, let's dive in. [NOTE: Thanks to MLB Trade Rumors for the arbitration estimates and Fangraphs Guardians 2027 roster resource page for everything else]

Locks for 40-man roster spots

1. Jose Ramirez

2. Gavin Williams

3. Chase DeLauter

4. Cade Smith

5. Parker Messick

6. Travis Bazzana

7. Patrick Bailey

8. Angel Genao

9. Brayan Rocchio

10. Angel Martinez

11. Daniel Espino

12. Erik Sabrowski

13. Joey Cantillo

Locks if they don't get traded or non-tendered

14. Steven Kwan (arb. estimate $11.3 MM, 1 year of control left)

15. Jo Adell (arb. estimate $9.6 MM, 1 year of control left)

16. Tanner Bibee (long term deal through 2029 wth club option for 2030, 3 options remaining)

17. Hunter Gaddis (arb. estimate $2,2 MM, 1 option remaining, 3 years of control)

18. Slade Cecconi (arb. estimate $2 MM, 1 option remaining, 4 years of control)

19. Matt Festa (arb. estimate $1.5 MM, 0 options remaining, 3 years of control)

20. Tim Herrin (arb. estimate $1.3 MM, years of control left, 3 years of control)

Fringe Rookies (likely to be rostered but not likely to have big impact in 2027, all with 5+ years of control left)

21. Petey Halpin

22. Andrew Walters

23. Cooper Ingle

24. Khalil Watson

25. Franco Aleman (DFA/Trade possibility)

Non-rostered players (likely to be rostered to protect them against the Rule 5 draft)

26. Jaison Chourio

27. Justin Campbell

28. Kody Huff

29. Ben Lively

Fringe Players (may be rostered, non-tendered or DFA'd as needed (all with 3+ years of control))

30. Craig Yoho (1 options left) 

31. Logan Allen (no options left)

32. David Fry (2 option left)

33. Kyle Manzardo (1 option left)

34. CJ Kayfus (2 options left)

35. Daniel Schneeman (2 options left)

36. Austin Peterson (rookie, 2 options left)

37. Yorman Gomez (rookie, 2 options left)

38. Colin Holderman (arb. estimate $2 MM, 1 option left)

Likely to be Non-tendered

39. Blake Perkins (1 options left)

THOUGTS ON WHERE WE GO THIS OFF-SEASON

1. Unless we sign a FA that has to be rostered before the lockout, the Guardians will probably do nothing.  We will have at least a 39=man roster at that point and I really don't see the Guardians giving up on any of these guys except for maybe Perkins (first) or Yoho. 

2. If we have to DFA guys to clear roster space I see us doing it, in order:

    a. Perkins

    b. Yoho

    c. Fry

    d. Allen (because he is out of options)

    e. Festa

    f. Aleman

3. I would like to see us do the following

    a. Sign Skubal (10 years, $350 MM)

    b. Sign Seya Suzuki (5 years, $100 MM)

   

4. If we get these two guys we sign:

    a. Austin Hedges, 1 yr, $3.5 MM

    b. Colin Holderman 1 yr, $1.5 MM

5. Promote Ralphy Velasquez and Ben Lively on opening day

  

Assuming no injuries (LOL) my opening day roster would look like this:

Starting Pitchers (5): Skubal, Williams Messick, Bibee, Lively

Bullpen (8): Smith, Gaddis, Sabrowski, Herrin, Holderman, Espino, Cantillo, Cecconi

Catchers (2): Bailey, Hedges

Infielders (5): Ramirez, Velasquez, Bazzana, Rocchio. Genao

Outfielders (5): Suzuki, Kwan, DeLauter, Adell, Schneeman

Utility (1) - Fry

Starting Lineup:

1. Kwan LF/CF

2. DeLauter LF/DH

3. Ramirez 3B

4. Suzuki RF

5. Velasquez 1B

6. Bazzana 2B

7. Schneeman CF/Adell LF/DH

8. Bailey C

9. Rocchio SS

Rest of 40-man roster:

1. Campbell

2. Chourio

3. Huff

4. Ingle

5. Aleman

6. Kayfus

7. Peterson

8. Gomez

9. Manzardo (1 option left)

10. Halpin

11. Watson

12. Walters

13. Angel Martinez (1 option left)

14. Tolentino (if we don't sign him as a minor league free agent rostering him allows us to keep him and, if needed, trade him without losing him for nothing)

Non-tender: Perkins, Festa

DFA/Trade: Allen, Yoho

 

 WILD CARDS

Emmanuel Clase

Luis Ortiz

I know this is a long shot but...

IF they are acquitted and...

IF MLB doesn't suspend them...

the Guardians will have to decide what to do with these two assets.  That's right, I used the word ASSETS because these guys have value as major league pitchers even if their reputations are soiled, maybe beyond repair.   Teams like Cleveland can't just walk away from valuable assets just on principal.

So, what are the options:

Clase:

Keep: for $8 MM ($10 MM salary - the $2 MM buyout they would have to pay him anyway) they get another quality relief arm

Trade: A number of teams would want a quality relief arm.  Packing him with prospects or Kwan might net a quality player (e.g., Ketel Marte).

Release: Again, they still owe him $2 MM

Ortiz:

Keep: With the Guardians' current team, he would simply provide minor league depth. He would be cheap (didn't make the super 2 cut) and he has 2 minor league options left

Trade: Given the salary and minor league options and his tools and limited previous success, he could be an attractive trade chip.

Release: If they release Ortiz, it likely would not impact the team's success as he is just a depth option.

However, this is the limited-resource Guardians and just releasing him seems like a waste.  Very similar, in my mind, to the Plesac/Clevinger situation where they kept Plesac and traded Clevinger after the COVID curfiew thing.

If we roster them:

1. Clase replaces Holderman who we try to re-sign to a minor league deal

2. Ortiz replaces Kayfus who we DFA and/or trade.

So, there you have it.  If you believe that Clase would hurt this team I think you sign him and trade him.  If you believe that Ortiz will be a distraction you trade him.  But under no circumstances do you just release either of them.  If you don't want them, get something out of them.  Their absence has likely cost this team some success over the past two years. Let's not compound that by releasing them just because some people think it is the right moral thing to do.