Thursday, April 28, 2011

When the Present and the Future Collide

Well, Alex White is coming.  As he (and we) prepare for his ML debut on Saturday, let's consider what this all means. 

Let's start with the realization that White did not have to be protected on the 40-man roster until next winter.  Thus, he is making his ML debut and taking a 40-man roster spot two seasons before he has to. 

So, a couple of things can happen: 

(1) He can be successful which means he will most likely be arbitration eligible in 2014 instead of 2017 (if his first ML experience was in 2013)
(2) He can be unsuccessful or we can protect against him being a super 2 which would mean him going back to the minors but the Indians having burned one of his option years.

What WILL happen is that we will most likely have one less 40-man roster spot this winter although there is a loophole, I think, that would let us take White off the 40-man after this season and still not expose him to waivers.

Nevertheless, the Indians' FO is actually starting to believe their own hype and thinking they can compete.  If you had to try catching lightning in a bottle wouldn't you do it with a guy like White?  I would too, I guess, except that I don't believe we can compete for a division title this year, current record notwithstanding.   I think we should have planned for this and brought up either David Huff or Zach McAllister, each of whom woujld have to have been held back from their most recent start to pitch on at least 5 days rest to make this start in Cleveland.  Not ideal, but it could have been done to protect White's future AND keep us from having to DFA someone off our 40 man roster.  The most likely candidates are Jess Todd or, if we feel we don't need him long-term, Travis Buck.  We could also move Nick Weglarz or  to the the 60-day DL, I guess, as we haven't heard that he is ready to play so adding another 30 days to his DL time is probably not unheard of..  This would not be ideal as it starts his service clock, would cost us an option if we sent him to the minors now and costs us paying him ML salary.  However, we did it with Jared Goedert so it is not out of the question.   We might also consider doing this for Hector Rondon, who I predicted we might do this with to clear the roster spot we needed before the season.

I think this is a long-term tactical mistake and smells and feels like what happened when they tried to rush Steve Dunning and Jeremy Guthrie to the majors, only to get rid of them when they were still developing.  The latter was more of a loss than the former who shut up the Indians' FO supporters as he is currently on his way to his 4th sub 4.00 ERA season in 5 as a Baltimore starter, having pitched 200+ innings in 2009 and 2010. 

The point is still the same: rushing a guy to the majors before he has to be rostered is a mistake.  So, while I applaud the Indians for their stones in rolling the option/arbitration dice in this situation, it's just bad long-term strategy.

Let's hope it works in the short term to spark fan interest because, frankly, at 9,000 and change every night even for a team with close to the best record in baseball, the Cleveland fan base needs a swift kick in the pants to get their rear ends down to the Prog.

In thinking about the White promotion, phrases like "penny-wise and pound-foolish" and "robbing Peter to pay Paul" come to mind to describe this situation although some would say "Why put off until tomorrow what you can do today?" is a more appropriate phrase.

Time will tell, but development-wise, option-wise and financial-wise, this is a mistake done by desperate men trying to ride the wave of early season success into late spring/summer months and hopefully higher attendance.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

More draft

Mock drafts are like $50,000 cars.  It seems like more people have them than should, based on means.

So, I don't put much stock in them.  However, in Baseball America's mock draft

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-dish/2011/2611619.html

they have the Indians taking.....drum roll please....Trevor Bauer.

I am still leaning toward Matt Barnes and, if he is gone, Taylor Jungmann.  The article says that the Indians may be seeing visions of Tim Lincecum dancing in their heads.  Well, that's a dangerous game to play, if true.  Remember the Jamie Moyer comparisons that are always thrown around for crafty lefties (see Jeremy Sowers and, to a lesser extent, David Huff)? 

You don't draft to cover up your previous screwups.  While Bauer is definitely electric, the history of short righthanders is not good.  The Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum exceptions to the rule aside, it is a safer bet to go with a guy like Barnes or Jungmann who may not have the Cy Young upside but has less downside, in my opinion.  As I said before, BA previously said that Barnes would have vyed for top college pitcher in the draft last year along with Drew Pomeranz.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Tornados and the draft

As fellow blogger recovers from cancer surgery (good luck Tony and our prayers are with you), tornados ripped through Northern St. Louis County where I live.   It was still 6-7 miles south of us but scary, nonetheless. 

Baseball America, in their latest midseason top 50 for the 2011 draft had Trevor Bauer, rated by this blog as the early favorite to be the Indians first round pick, as the 8th best prospect.  The Indians draft 8th.

Bauer's 2011 stats, including his 17 K, 4 hit, 2 walk complete game last night against 23rd ranked Stanford are:

1.42 ERA, 41 hits in 82 innings, 127 Ks (about 1.5 per inning) and 25 BB in 10 starts.  A little worrisome in pitch count as he threw 135 pitches last night and at 8 1/3 innings per start he is probably up over 110 pitches every time out.  Also, he is not tall (6'1" listed, probably 6-0" really) and has an unorthodox motion. 

Interesting things about the list:

John Stilson from Texas A&M was ranked 30th!  This seems low to me.  I guess his stuff may come up short  (his Ks this year have dropped from about 1.5 per inning to about 1.1) but his ERA is 1.05 and he is dominant in most starts as he has given up 60 hits in 81 innings.   If we only had two picks in the top 20....

Taylor Jungmann is 13th ranked and Matt Barnes is 14th ranked.  Interestingly I would right now consider taking either of these guys over Bauer.  Bauer is dominant but the lack of size and unorthodox delivery scare me.   BA indicated that last year Barnes would have been in the running for the top college pitcher in the draft last year.  That pitcher was Drew Pomeranz.  So, if he is healthy, either Barnes (or Jungmann, who is consistently rated more highly) would be great picks and I think a little safer than Bauer.

Matt Purke from TCU has been hurt and is a sophomore.  If you want to throw the bank at the guy he could be available in the 2nd round.

Both Okalahoma HS pitchers, Dylan Bunday and Archie Bradley are rated low enough we might be able to get either at #8.  Both might be tough signs. 

There are position players in this draft but their top 50 has only 4 of the top 17 prospects are hitters. 

Next time around I will talk about the college players who have dropped significantly during this draft year and may be later round gems.  

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Guys who are make or break this year

A number of Indians' minor leaguers are in make or break seasons.  Here is the way I think it will go:

Borderline Columbus prospects:

Jerad Head: excel
Jordan Brown: still up in the air
Luis Valbuena: struggle
Wes Hodges: struggle
Ezequiel Carrera: solid performance
Zach Putnam: excel
David Huff: solid
Zach Putname: excel
Frank Herrmann: solid
Josh Judy: excel
Jess Todd: struggle
Corey Kluber: struggle
Zach McAllister: solid

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Best signing of the off-season....

...if you want a good draft choice in 2012.

Yep, that would be Chad "laughing all the way to the bank" Durbin.  The signing that none of us liked is looking really good so far...if you are looking to get a high draft choice. 

While this is surely a plus, I still rather give those innings to a rookie reliever.

I can see the talk shows in Cleveland now.  "Well, it's 4:30 in the afternoon at WELW and Chad Durbin still sucks". 

Meanwhile, Aaron Laffey, who we dumped to give us a roster spot that we could have saved by not signing Durbin, has pitched 5 scoreless innings on one hit, one walk and 3 Ks.

Really not a good signing compounded by giving Laffey away for nothing.  Geez!

Stat of the day

Cory Burns is just a so-so prospect.  Yeah, he put up some gaudy numbers last year combined in Lake County and Kinston (42 saves and 84 Ks to just 14 walks in 55 innings) but those can be seasoned-college-pitcher-pitching-against-younger-competition numbers.

It also screams quality changeup/other off-speed pitch, which IS his bread and butter

But wait, he was just 22 so he wasn't really overage, especially for the Carolina League where he did his most damage.

And it gets better!

So far this year he has the following stat line:

4 G  4 Saves  4 IP 4 H 1 R 0 ER 0 BB 11 K.

That's right, in AA, which is where you start separating prospects from suspects from organizational guys, Burns has recorded 12 outs and 11 of those are from strikeouts with the 12th out being a groundout from Pittsburgh's #2 prospect, Tony Sanchez.  Of his 11 Ks 6 are called and 5 are swinging, including all three today when he got his 4th save, so it's not like he is just getting them to swing at junk.  I mean, he hasn't walked a guy.  People are taking, people are swinging, they are all grabbing some pine.

Little league-like numbers in AA.  Hmmm, we may have a real human interest story here...and a serviceable major league reliever. 

Friday, April 8, 2011

Indians Top 100 prospects - April 2011 Update

Just a quick update:
I've removed Josh Rodriguez (#22, stuck with Pittsburgh), Alex Kaminsky (#66 - cut during ST) and Ryan Morris (#95 - cut during ST).  Not bad for a top 100 prospects to only have 2 guys cut during ST.   I've added three new guys on the bottom of the list, two who just missed my list and a 3rd, Steven Wright, who deserves mention as he tries to resurrect his career by developing a knuckleball.
1. Jason Kipnis (#3 on BA Indians' top 10)
2. Drew Pomeranz (#4 on BA Indians' top 10)
3. Lonnie Chisenhall (#1 on BA Indians' top 10)
4. Alex White (#2 on BA Indians' top 10)
5. LaVon Washington (#7 of BA Indians' top 10)
6. Jason Knapp (#6 on BA Indians' top 10)
7. Nick Weglarz (#5 on BA Indians' top 10)
8. Nick Hagadone (#10 on BA Indians' top 10)
9.  Kyle Blair (BA Top 31)
10. Cord Phelps (BA Top 30)
11. Jordan Brown (In team photo)
12. Bryce Stowell (BA Top 31)
13. Vinnie Pestano (In team photo)
14. Joe Gardner (#9 on BA Indians' top 10)
15. Josh Judy (BA Top 31)
16. Hector Rondon (BA Top 31)
17. Rob Bryson (BA Top 31)
18. Robbie Aviles (In team photo)
19. Juan Diaz
20.  Zach Putnam (BA Top 30)
21. Tony Wolters (#8 on BA Indians' top 10)
22. Jordan Henry (BA Top 31)
23. Tyler Holt (BA Top 31)
24. TJ House (BA Top 31)
25. Kelvin De La Cruz (BA Top 31)
26. Austin Adams (In team photo)
27. Chun Chen (BA Top 31)
28. Paulo Espino
29. Jared Goedert. In team photo)
30. Cole Cook (In team photo)
31. Alexander Perez (In team photo)
32. Zach McAllister (BA Top 31)
33. Corey Kluber (BA Top 31)
34. Matt McBride (in team photo)
35. Alex Lavisky (BA Top 31)
36. Giovanny Soto (In team photo)
37. Ezequiel Carrera (in team photo)
38. Jess Todd (BA Top 31)
39. Scott Barnes (In team photo)
40. Felix Sterling (BA Top 31)
41. Adam Miller (In team photo)
42. Matt Packer (BA Top 31)
43. Clayton Cook (In team photo)
44. TJ McFarland (In team photo)
45. Chris Jones
46. Eric Berger (In team photo)
47. Michael Goodnight (In team photo)
48. Tony Dischler (In team photo)
49. Marty Popham (In team photo)
50. Roberto Perez (In team photo)
51. Tyler Sturdevant (In team photo)
52. Cory Burns (In team photo)
53. Abner Abreu (In team photo)
54. Tim Fedroff (In team photo)
55. Bryan Price (In team photo)
56.. Chen Lee (BA Top 31)
57. Bo Greenwell (In team photo)
58. Jordan Cooper (In team photo)
59. Nick Bartolone (In team photo)
60. Elvis Araujo (In team photo)
61. Jorge Martinez (In team photo)
62. Vidal Nuno (In team photo)
63. Giovanny Urshala (BA Top 31)
64. Kyle Bellows(In team photo)
65. Connor Graham (In team photo)
66. Joey Mahalic
67. John Drennen (In team photo)
68. Jesus Aguilar
69. Brett Brach (In team photo)
70. Francisco Jimenez
71. Juan Romero (In team photo)
72. Karexon Sanchez 
73. Oswell Munoz
74. Matt Langwell
75. Danny Salazar
76. Argenis Martinez
77. Preston Guilmet (In team photo)
78. Ramon Cespedes
79. Harold Guerrero
80. Kyle Petter
81. Enosil Tejada
82.Luigi Rodriguez (BA Top 31)
83. Hunter Jones (In team photo)
84. Chase Burnette (In team photo)
85. Jose Flores (In team photo for Seattle)
86.  Carlos Moncrief
87. Erik Gonzalez
88. Mike Rayl
89. Mark Brown (In team photo)
90. Jerad Head
91. Alex Monsalve (In team photo)
92. Charlie Valero
93. Nate Striz
94. Trey Haley (In team photo)
95. Beau Mills (In team photo)
96. Delvi Cid (In team photo)
97. Wes Hodges
98. Ronny Rodriguez
99. Aaron Siligia
100. Steven Wright

Stat of the day

Yesterday the Indians and three of their affiliates (Columbus, Akron and Lake County) played.  The starting pitchers were Carmona, Huff, De la Cruz and Goodnight.  Combined they gave up 8 hits in 23 innings and one earned run.    However, if you subtract one performance the bullpens were even better!  If you leave out Jess Todd's performance (2/3 of an inning, 3 ER) the bullpens gave up no runs in 12 and 1/3 innings.

Now THAT'S dominant pitching!

Thursday, April 7, 2011

2011 Predictions

Everyone does it, so why not me:

ML Indians

Record: 67-95
Biggest surprise: Tony Sipp, Matt LaPorta
Biggest disappointment: Fausto Carmona
MVP: Choo
Rookie of the year: Jason Kipnis

Columbus Clippers
Record: 80-64 (IL Champion...again)
Biggest surprise: Jordan Brown
Biggest disappointment: Nick Weglarz (due to injuries), Jess Todd and possibly Josh Judy
MVP: Cord Phelps
Best prospect: Jason Kipnis
Prospects having success in the majors in 2010: Putnam, Chisenhall, Judy, Phelps, Brown, Alex White
Comments: There is enough backup in the majors, enough polishing that needs to be done and enough sense by the Indians to not start the service time clocks of a number of these guys too soon that we will see guys staying at AAA way too long this year.   The bullpen will especially be chomping at the bit but guys will just have to wait their turn.   This team is just so solid that I can't see them not excelling.  Plus, with the guys stacked up on this roster, even a little turnover shouldn't stop them.  With most of that turnover being in August, this team should cost into the playoffs and get a boost from AA for their playoff run.

Akron Aeros
Record: 60-84
Biggest surprise: Juan Diaz
Biggest disappointment: Matt Packer, Kyle Bellows, Joe Gardner
MVP: Kelvin De la Cruz
Best prospect: Kelvin De la Cruz, Drew Pomeranz, Chun Chen
Prospects making the majors: C.C. Lee, Nick Hagadone
Comments: There will be so much traffic through  Akron this year (up and down) that this team will just never get it going.  Not that there aren't good prospects.  I see 4-5 of these guys being on the ML roster when we make our first big run in 2013.  Things just won't go well for this team this year.  It's just one of those things.

Kinston Indians
Record: 79-75
Biggest surprise: Bo Greenwell, Chris Jones
Biggest disappointment:  Tyler Holt
MVP: Abner Abreu, Drew Pomeranz (won't be around long enough to qualify)
Best prospect: Drew Pomeranz, TJ House
Guys with an outside shot of playing in the majors: Chris Jones
Comments: Let's call this the make-or-break team.  So many prospects on this team are in their final year of being a prospect, at least from my perspective.  Guys like McFarland, Mahalic, Greenwell and even Clayton Cook, Roberto Perez and Giovanny Soto have got to make a name for themselves.  Guys like Maty Popham and Tyler Sturdevant and Delvi Cid have to make a difference and really advance their game or they become 100% organizational soldiers.

Lake County Captains
Record: 84-60 (champions again)
Biggest Surprise: Jesus Aguilar, Govanny Urshela (his power and hitting)
Biggest Disappointment: Tony Dischler, Trey Haley, Alex Lavisky and Tony Wolters (the latter two due to injury and inexperience)
MVP: Kyle Blair
Best prospect: Kyle Blair, Cole Cook, Michael Goodnight, LeVon Washington, Giovanny Urshela, Tony Wolters, Alex Lavisky
Comments: The backup of starting pitching up the organization will cause Dischler, Blair, Cook, Goodnight and Haley to remain at LC for most of the season.  That bodes well for LC as they are quality pitchers pitching below their level for most of the year.