Post 2011 Indians' Top 55 prospects

It's really early in the post-season.  Who knows what is going to happen in the Rule 5 draft, both coming and going.  And who knows what is going to happen in terms of trades.  But, to level set right now, here is my take on the Indians' top prospects.  Later I will expand this and tweak it to give my thoughts on the top 100 prospects. 

1.     Francisco Lindor – SS

2.     Nick Hagadone – LHRP

3.     Tony Wolters – SS

4.     Felix Sterling – RHP

5.     Elvis Araujo – LHP

6.     Dorssys Paulino - SS

7.     Chun Chen – C

8.     Chen Lee – RHRP

9.     Alexander Perez – LHP

10.  Hector Rondon – RHP

11.  Robbie Aviles – RHSP

12.  LeVon Washington – OF

13.  Scott Barnes – LHSP

14.  Zach McAllister – RHSP

15.  Dillon Howard – RHP

16.  Josh Judy – RHRP

17.  Zach Putnam – RHRP

18.  Cord Phelps – Utility
19.  Juan Diaz – SS
20. Austin Adams - RHSP
21.  Ronny Rodriguez – SS
22.  Luigi Rodriguez OF
23.  Jesus Aguilar – 1B
24.  Alex Lavisky – C
25.  Danny Salazar – RHSP
26.  Bryson Myles – OF
27.  Roberto Perez – C
28.  Jake Lowery – C
29.  Robel Garcia – 3B/OF
30.  Jake Sisco – RHSP
31.  Kelvin De La Cruz – LHSP
32.  Paulo Espino – RHSP
33.  T.J. McFarland – LHSP
34.  Matt Packer – LHSP
35.  Alex Monsalve – C
36.  Kyle Blair – RHSP
37.  Bryce Stowell – RHRP
38.  Tyler Sturdevant – RHRP
39.  Tyler Holt – OF
40.  Giovanny Urshela – 3B
41.  Beau Mills – 1B
42.  Cory Burns – RHRP
43.  Clayton Cook – RHSP
44.  T.J. House – LHSP
45.  Matt Langwell – RHRP
46.  Thomas Neal – OF
47.  Anthony Salander - OF 
48.  Cole Cook – RHSP
49.  Carlos Moncrief – OF
50.  Enosil Tejada – RHRP
51.  Jordan Smith – 3B/OF
52.  Nick Weglarz – OF
53.  Jose Ramirez – SS
54.  Jorge Martinez – 2B
55.  Corey Kluber – RHSP  

Unraveling the new CBA: The draft and FA compensation

OK.  We have a new collective bargaining agreement.   So what does it all mean for the Cleveland Indians?  We'll start today with the biggest parts that impact the Indians: Draft and FA compensation.

Disclaimer: I haven't read it.   I am not a lawyer.   I have just read interpretations of what it means.  So, here goes:

General: Small market teams like Pittsburgh, Washington, Tampa Bay and Kansas City have decided that the most efficient way to build a franchise is to include investing heavily in the draft.  This includes leveraging extra picks and taking flyers on late round, high bonus demand guys who have fallen.  The draft is the single way left in baseball to obtain talent that is without competition from other teams.  You draft a guy and if he wants to sign he has to sign with you or wait another year (or 3) to be drafted.    Some of the new provisions really hurt the small market teams like the Indians.  Let's talk specifics:
What they did:

(a) Less free agents compensated: Actually, this helps the Indians.  They usually don't have high Type A free agents  and when they do they have recently traded them before free agency (something that will probably be done more often now) and now will be free to sign the lower Type A and Type B guys AND won't have their draft picks diluted by a bloated supplemental first round.   The only negative is that the Indians may get a little less value for their FAs-to-be as the receiving team can't get a draft pick for them. Still, this helps the Indians as many times it is the large market teams who rent players and then get draft picks for them, further bloating and slanting the draft towards large market teams.

(b) Offering an average of the top 125 salaries: Doesn't hurt the Indians as it is only the average.  They have historically offered just enough to not be able to sign guys like Thome, Ramirez, etc. but that was WELL above the average.

(c) Lottery picks for 10 worst teams:  If those picks were at the beginning of the first round, great.  But they aren't.  They are essentially supplemental  first round picks.  This won't help the Indians much IF they get one, which is not guaranteed...and they have to finish with such a bad record to get it that it isn't worth it.

(d) Draft spending cap:  This REALLY hurts the Indians big time.  Their 2012 draft would have been OK because Lindor and Howard signed for reasonable amounts.  However, flyer picks after that, like they did in the 2011 draft, would be almost impossible to do.  So you are looking at the 2012 draft (not very good for us) compared to the 2011 draft (best, on paper, in baseball at the time of the draft) in the future.  That is not good news.

(e) No major league deals.  This is a big plus for the Indians.  The major league deal Jeremy Guthrie got KILLED the Indians.  He only became a decent ML pitcher after he left the Indians after he was out of options.  As agents will now have to focus in other areas, this won't be a discussion point any more.

(f) Draft signing deadline: This helps the Indians as it gets players moving through their system quicker.  Yes, it helps all teams but the small market teams build from the bottom up.  Anything that helps that process makes them more competitive.

What should they have done: 

Give each team that has one of the 15 worst records (IF they have a losing record) an additional pick at the end of each of the first two rounds and each of the 10 worst records an additonal pick in each of the first 3 rounds and each of the 5 worst records an extra pick at the end of the first 5 rounds.  This gives the team with the worst record in baseball 10 picks in the first 5 rounds, the team with the 6th worst record in baseball 8 picks in the first 5 rounds and the team with the 11th worst record 7 picks in the first 5 rounds, and that is BEFORE any compensation picks they get.    This slants the draft heavily towards teams who can't and shouldn't compete for expensive free agents and makes them spend on the draft.  They obviously get cap room based on their extra picks as is present in the new CBA.  Also, there should be no draft cap for teams with the 10 worst records in baseball and an extended cap for teams with the 15 worst records.

Remove, entirely, the protection of first round picks.   The worst teams in baseball shouldn't be signing the best free agents and they usually don't. 

You can only trade draft picks IF you had a winning record the previous season and you can only trade draft picks for the next draft, not years down the road.

The signing deadline, free agent compensation, no major league contracts all are fine.  But it is the draft advantage that should have been leveraged to the hilt for small market teams.  This didn't happen and, for the Cleveland Indians, that is a real killer.

The number was right, the players were, well, different

I predicted three players would be added.  But two of the three were different.

Juan Diaz - As a SS, he does fit one of the types of players picked in Rule 5 drafts: middle infielders.  He is a potential breakout candidate next year but protecting him seems one year too premature.  Neither his offense or defense is polished enough for him to stick next year, even as a utility infielder.  Consider Josh Rodriguez last year compared to Diaz this year.  Rodriguez couldn't stick and Diaz is not nearly as refined a player as Rodriguez was at the same point last year. 

Danny Salazar - This one is the most puzzling one: a low A righty without a great fastball coming off TJ surgery.  The kid has potential but he is so far away from the majors that NO team would have taken him.  They say the last thing to come back after TJ surgery is command.  Why would you protect this guy who, even if his stuff played up next spring, he never would have been competent to pitch at the big league level.

So, all in all, not a very good set of players added, except for Barnes, who was a no-brainer.

The big screwup, I think, is Araujo.  He will almost certainly be one of the Indians' top 10 prospects.  Teams would be crazy not to risk the $50,000 that he might stick as a lefty specialist or a long man next year.  How many times can you increase your talent pool with a top 10 prospect from another organization and it cost you no players and only $50,000.  Stupid move by the Indians not to protect him.  Very stupid.

TJ McFarland.  He is a good pitcher but does not project to be the type of guy who gets picked in the Rule 5.  He throws about 88 mph and I don't think he is especially tough on lefties.  Not protecting him makes sense.

But protecting Salazar instead of Araujo.  Just plain stupid.

Protecting Salazar instead of Araujo.  Just plain stupid.

Protecting Diaz insteas of McFarland.  Understandable and I might have done it.

40-man roster day. Who will be added? Will anyone be DFA'd?

Today teams have to set their 40 man roster AND their minor league reserve lists in preparation for December's Rule 5 draft.  Remember, you can't add anyone to your roster except through trades, until after the Rule 5 draft if you don't do so by today.  At the same time, if you want to draft someone in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft, you have to have an open spot on your roster although teams have DFA'd players as late as the morning of the draft to clear a spot.

So, what are the Indians going to do?  I have posted earlier on the Rule 5 draft but that was only IF guys were not placed on the roster by today. 

The Indians currently have 38 guys on their roster.  They have spots for adding two guys without having to DFA, outright or trade anyone.

Who might be reasonable to protect? 

Looking through the list of guys eligible for the Rule 5 (if not rostered) here are the names I come up with who are candidates to be added to the roster:

Hector Ambriz
Elvis Araujo
Scott Barnes
Rob Bryson
Paolo Espino
TJ McFarland
Beau Mills
Carlos Moncrief
Roberto Perez
Bryce Stowell

Anyone sent to the lifeboats to clear space?

Here is a list of guys who MIGHT be DFA'd tor outrighted oday (but probably not for most of them as they are, at least, roster filler for a later trade or free agent signing or two).

Shelley Duncan
Jack Hannahan
Korey Kluber
Thomas Neal
Cord Phelps
Luis Valbuena
Nick Weglarz

Predictions:

The Indians will add both Scott Barnes and Elvis Araujo to their roster.  The Indians will add a 3rd player, TJ McFarland, by outrighting Corey Kluber to the minors.

Reasoning: You can't expose your top left-handed pitching prospect and one of your top 10 (maybe top 5) overall prospects to the Rule 5 draft just because he is still in the low minors.  Remember that was tried with Joakim Soria and look how that turned out!  Unfortunately, even though he may be exposed to being DFA'd before he gets to the majors as he may use up all your options with him, you have to take this gamble.

Barnes is kind of a no-brainer who I think may have gotten a shot last September if he hadn't injured his knee.  He is a better pitching prospect, in my opnion, than Corey Kluber.

TJ McFarland is, to me, a better pitching prospect than Kluber.  While I would like to DFA Valbuena, I think they still keep Kluber's rights if they DFA him.  I think Valbuena may become a FA if he is DFA'd and not traded and clears waivers.

Why not roster the other guys who are eligible?

Roberto Perez - Too many questions about his bat.   AFL helped this year but not enough, IMHO

Bryce Stowell - Yes he has thrown 100 mph.  But last year was so bad for him it is worth the risk not to protect him

Rob Bryson: - Could be really painful if lost this guy (CC trade) and he becomes something.  Coming off an injury so maybe teams will shy away.  Worth the risk

Paolo Espino - The typical short righthander, he gets no respect and so is worth the gamble of not protecting him.  The most likely of the non-protected list to see time in the majors next year, however.

Beau Mills does not fit the Rule 5 draftee profile and so is a good gambles NOT to protect.  Hector Ambriz may be selected in the Rule 5 but can't be put on the 40 man as he is too far down the RH reliever depth chart to warrant it.

Carlos Moncrief has an iintriguing combination of speed, power and throwing arm strength.  He is so far down in the minors, however, and didn't hit much at low A, he is probably safe.

Random thought 11/13

If the Cardinals, who have a great and knowledgeable organization, can hire Mike Matheny to manage a defending world champion when he has no previous managing experience:

1. Why are we not offering the job to Sandy Alomar Jr.?

2. Why is Mike Sarbaugh being dissed for a ML bench coach job?

3. Why do we still have Manny Acta and his .417 career winning pct. as a big league manager?

As I pointed out before, take out the 30-15 start and the guy is managing at a 69-93 clip over the past two seasons.  He is not a good manager. 

Get rid of Acta and hire Alomar Jr. and promote Sarbaugh now. 

I want to stop right now the bleeding of good field staff and FO people leaving this organization.

Trades....Do 'em or don't do 'em

Off-season trading for a team like the Indians is difficult.  You try to find a team to trade with has excess of what you need and you have excess of what they need. 

Problem is, the Indians have very little excess of anything.  So, unless you think Joe Smith or Matt LaPorta worth a quality major leaguer, unless you think you can live without one of Tony Sipp or Rafael Perez or unless you think you want to give up prospects, you don't trade right now.

Yes, if you are fortunate (and the Indians SHOULD be looking) you can find a good fit for a trade that won't weaken either your 2012 major league team OR your farm system (See KC-SF trade last week).  And, face it, right now, our farm system is already so weak I wouldn't want to trade ANY prospect for a rental.

So, unless all the stars align you wait to make a trade in spring training.  Teams with high salaried players who have a prospect they find is suddenly ready are more likely to dump the high-salaried player if the team will take on salary.  The return won't have to be as much as it is now. 

So, Indians, hold tight on trading, see what the FA market and non-tender market bring and then, if you are still a little short of a full deck, look to make a trade at the middle or end of spring training.

Don't panic!

Musings on 11-11-11

Christmas Carroll…that is a turkey of an idea

37 year old Jamey Carroll is on the verge of signing a multiyear deal with some team.  The teams who he might be signing with continue to say "It's not me!".  The Indians have been mentioned.  Three phrases that should never appear in the same sentence are Jamey Carroll, multiyear deal and Cleveland Indians…except, of course, if they accompanied by DON’T DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.

Besides having our own internal options (Jason Donald, who we paid a pretty penny for, if you remember), Carroll is coming off a career year and is only an average defender.   Thus, we will pay more than he is worth and be saddled with an bloated contract that will not make trading him easier at the deadline.

Yes, filling second base and moving Kipnis back to LF which I proposed a couple of weeks ago helps with our infield defense, something I had already said should be a priority this winter, given that we just added ground ball machine Derek Lowe to a groundball-heavy rotation. 

But Jamey Carroll.  No way.

Now, Jose Reyes to SS and Asdrubal Cabrera to 2B?  That helps us out even though I am not sure Reyes is a better SS than Cabrera.  However, certainly Reyes/Cabrera is better than Cabrera/Kipnis for this pitching staff.  So, shell out the money to Reyes and Aramis Ramrez, put Kipnis (LF, starter) and Chisenhall (LF/RF, reserve this year or to AAA for outfield training if you want to conserve his service time) in the OF.  Remember, when Chisenhall was drafted I suggested putting him in RF.  That becomes more relevant as Choo hits free agency.

Minor league free agents to sign

Wow, we signed 33 year old catcher Michael Hernandez.  That is the icing on the cake of minor league signings!  JK.

Here’s a quick look at the pitchers (we obviously wouldn’t sign all of them, just 1-3 per group) I think we should consider signing.  The guys in bold are my personal favorites

LHP – Doug Arguello, Brian Burres, Ryan Feierabend (a Cleveland native), Chuck James, Wil Ledezma, Wil Startup, Jake Stevens, Taylor Tankersley, Clay Zavada,

RHP – James Avery, Jimmy Barthmeier, Billy Buckner, David Bush, Matt Daley, Sam DeDuno, Todd Doolittle, Brandon Erbe, Sean Gallagher, Wil Inman, Garret Mock, Luis Perdomo, Mitch Talbot,  PJ Walters,

More about the position players later.

Time for a change!

OK, the Indians have lost guys like Torey Lovullo, John Farrell and others.

Now, Sandy Alomar Jr. is being courted and Mike Sarbaugh is being dissed just like Lovullo was.

For me, it's time for a change.

Remember that Manny Acta's claim to fame as a big league manager was skippering a team that finished 2 games under .500.  And that was far and away his best result as a manager.

Dump Acta, hire Alomar Jr. to manage and bring in Sarbaugh as the bench coach.   It is a bold move, one that might shake the foundation of the Indians, but, in my opinion, it is the right move.

You can't just keep Acta because he was more close to mediocre than he had been in previous years.   Aside from the 30-15 start, his team was 50-67 or, stretched out over 162 games that would be 69-93, IDENTICAL to his previous season in Cleveland. and very similar to his career winning pct. of .417.

It's time for a bold move, it's time to keep the FO talent in the organization and it's time for a change and an action to show the rest of the organization and the fans that mediocrity won't be tolerated and that success (see Sarbaugh) will be rewarded by promotion.

Alomar Jr. for manager, Sarbaugh for bench coach, Manny Acta for someone else. 

And now, a brief interlude...the Rule 5 draft - Who the Indians might lose

OK, time off from the free agent and trade stuff (I will be back to that this weekend).

Right now, though, let's look at who the Indians have who are Rule 5 eligible.

Remember, any guy under a team's control for 2012 who is not on the major league roster and who fits MLB's criteria for the Rule 5 draft : fourth Rule 5 draft after signing for players 19 and over at the time of signing and fifth Rule 5 drafts after signing for players signed when they are 18 or younger.  The only exception is guys signed AFTER the minor league season is over (Sept. 1st) who don't play that year.  Their Rule 5 clock starts the next season. 

So, with that, here is my list of Indians players and who might or is unlikely to be picked in the Rule 5 major league or minor league portions of the draft.  These players can be protected from the Rule 5 draft if they are placed on the 40 man roster by November 18th.  On that date teams also place players on AAA, AA and A level "reserve lists".  Those on the AAA reserve list (which can be up to 38 players) can only be selected in the ML portion of the Rule 5 draft.

If the following minor leaguers are left off the 40 man roster they are:

Decent Possibility To Be Picked, Decent Chance to Stick with Drafting Team                                                                                                                            

 Scott Barnes
Alexander Perez
Paulo Espino

Possibility To Be Picked, Possibility to Stick   

Elvis Arauuo
Rob Bryson
Roberto Perez
Juan Diaz
TJ McFarland
 

Possibility To Be Picked, Unlikely to Stick  

Hector Ambriz
Eric Berger
Matt Langwell
Danny Salazar
Bryce Stowell
Carlos Moncrief
                                                                                              

Not Placed on ML roster But Protected on AAA Reserve List, Unlikely to be Picked   

Kyle Landis
Marty Popham
Adam Miller (If he re-signs and before the Rule 5 draft in December)
Argenis Martinez
Beau Mills
Karexon Sanchez
Tim Fedroff
Bo Greenwell
Chad Huffman
Jerad Head (see Adam Miller)

                                     
 Possibility to Be Picked in Minor League Phases
Adam Abraham
Juan Apodaca

Doug Pickens

Joey Mahalic

Steven Wright
Jeremie Tice
Delvi Cid
Ben Copeland
John Drennen
Donnie Webb

Oswel Munoz (if we even still have him)

I want to end by saying

(a) This is the hardest draft to predict
(b) I am right more than most who predict this stuff but wrong A LOT more than I am right.

Off-season moves: Rating the Compensation Free Agents

Ok, the Indians have holes to fill:

1. A first baseman with power would be nice.

2. A left fielder with power would be nice.

3. Bullpen help is always welcome.

Let's start by looking at the available free ageints.  We will start with the free agents who might require compensation.

Josh Willingham OF - It seems a lot of the internet want the Indians to sign this guy.  He hit .246 with 29 HR and 98 RBI.  He is a LFer who DHed 40 times.  He is a career .262 hitter who has a career high in HR last year and will be 33 when the season starts and his OPS was only .810.  Unless he comes cheap ($6 million or less and willing to accept only a 2-year deal) my vote is no.  I understand he is the best of the lot available but I don't like the spike in HRs in his walk year.

David DeJesus RF - Not enough HRs, not enough RBI and not healthy enough.

Magglio Ordonez RF - Only if he is healthy would I even consider it and, then, only on a cheap, incentive-laden, one year deal.

Carlos Pena 1B - No BA but a lot of walks, HR and sufficient RBIs to bat him somewhere in the middle of the order.  His problem is he hits LH.

Michael Cuddyer OF - Like Willingham, a part-time DH and 33 next season, he is another popular internet favorite to be signed by the Indians.  He has power but his RBI total is low.  Again, if the price is right he is an improvement in the offense but probably hurts the defense.

Carlos Beltran OF - Again, if healthy and cheap, maybe worth a look.  Probably both won't be true.

Jason Kubel OF - Not healthy, a part-time DH and hits left-handed.  Only a last ditch guy for me

Derek Lee 1B - I don't see this guy as an upgrade over the 2012 version of Matt LaPorta.

Ryan Ludwick OF - The last choice in the FA OF sweepstakes, to me.  He is back to the mediocrity he had when he played for the Indians that one year.

Now, for the way out there guys:

Jose Reyes SS - Sign this guy to hit leadoff, move ACab to 2B and Kipnis to LF.  He is my prime target as I think he will be a cut above Phillips and Ramirez, but more expensive, too.  I think this may help our IF defense and bringing in Lowe, our IF defense needs to be better.  We can't give the other team 4 outs an inning with our starting pitchers.  Reyes/Cabrera is better than Cabrera/Kipnis defensively.

Brandon Phillips 2B - Move Kipnis to LF

Aramis Ramirez 3B - Move Chisenhall to LF.  He is the guy I target if the Reyes thing is too expensive.  Look, Chisenhall is NOT a sure thing. 

Not only will these three guys be expensive, but they will require position switches by other guys.  Still, any of them would make this team better.

Then we have:

Prince Fielder - Too expensive and, even if we wanted to take the plunge, he hits left-handed meaning while he helps this team immensely, he causes us to dump LaPorta and have an even more LH hitting lineup.  Good pickup but not worth the price given the above..

Albert Pujols - Everyone's #1.  He makes our lineup...and breaks our bank...as if he would come to Cleveland anyway.

And......we're off.

Derek Lowe for $5 million and Fausto Carmona for $7 million.   Man, what does that tell you about the state of ML baseball when two pitchers who give up about 5 runs a game get that much just because they can exhibit that mediocrity for 6-7 innings a game?

Some thoughts on these moves:

1. I like this move on paper.  This move reminds me of the Kevin Millwood signing.  First, Atlanta must have been going to release him.  I like Chris Jones and he was one of my predictions to break out last year but this is just a salary dump.  If Carmona is worth $7 million, Lowe is worth $5 million.  Also, while I like internal options we are not talking about keeping Sizemore (the rookie) in the minors to have beat up Juan Gonzalez on your team. Or, if you want a more stinging analogy, it's not like keeping Ramon Vazquez to dump Brandon Phillips.

2. We are now done with the rotation.  With Jeanmar Gomez, David Huff and Zach McAllister ready, we are now 8 deep.  The talk is now that we will trade one or more of them.  It's a good idea on paper but I can't imagine ANY of those guys, or all of them together, would bring much back.  So I would just keep all of them if I can't get a king's ransom for them.

2. Along with declining Grady Sizemore's option, the Lowe move has put pressure on the Indians to upgrade the offense.  Although Grady being Grady was like a 1000:1 shot at this point, keeping him would have given us, on paper, a good hitter.   Injuries have lengthened the odds of him returning to his past ability but, still, even 0.05 of Grady Sizemore is more valuable than 0 of Grady Sizemore...just not for that price!  So, we will have to find one of not two big bats.  Here is the lineup right now:

C - Santana
1B - LaPorta
2B - Kipnis
SS - Cabrera
3B - Chisenhall
LF - Hole
CF - Brantley
RF - Choo
DH - Hafner

The odds of each of those guys even having a ML average season for their position is small.  The hole in LF has to be filled and either LaPorta has to do the job at 1B or we have to fill that hole.

This is tricky.  You can sign a 1B/LF guy and hope LaPorta finds his way.  But if LaPorta doesn't improve, you still have a hole.  Or you can sign a 1B guy and a LF guy but then you are wasting LaPorta and have really lessened his trade value, which is currently too low, IMHO, for him to be traded anyway.  Plus you have Duncan.  No way do I want another Jason Michaels/David Dellucci platoon.  We already know that doesn't work. 

We can live with the question marks about 3B, Choo, Hafner and even Kipnis IF we get a power-hitting LFer who we know can produce and at a reasonable cost and LaPorta can hit. 

The key here is that we need production from LF and 1B.  Whether or not we got Lowe, this would be true.  However, for me, a healthy Carmona and a healthy Lowe means that we can seriously compete for the playoffs next year if we just significantly upgrade the offense at those two positions.  I don't think that is true if McAllister, Gomez or Huff is the 5th starter.  I see each of them with the same ERA as Lowe next year.  It's just that Lowe will keep us in games, the others won't.  I can easily see Lowe going 12-10 next year and, with the same run production, the others going 7-15.  Lowe's performance will be consistently mediocre.  I think the other three will pitch well in games they lose 3-2 and then get blown out in other games, taxing the bullpen as they do.  In the end, the stats won't look much different but their impact on the team will.

So, good first 3 moves of the off-season, Indians.

Now, let's spend money and NOT trade prospects to bring in hitters.  And, please, no more Jack Hanahans, Adam Everetts and Shelly Duncans.  That is NOT going to fix anything.  You need to invest money.  If you can do a Chris Jones' like trade and take on salary, go for it.  But don't trade real prospects for some washed up expensive veteran.