Congrats to the Indians for getting their man, Nick Swisher. If you are going to go down a path you have to hit it hard and the Indians did.
The only issue is will this be enough and, if it isn't, can the Indians bring in more talent to help justify the Jimenez trade and the Swisher signing. Time will tell.
Now let's consider the aftermath of his signing.
Is the contract bloated? Yeah, somewhat, but not so bloated that Swisher couldn't be traded if we ate about $4 million of the contract per year. I mean, would you rather have Swisher with his contract or the mediocre Edwin Jackson with his or the overpaid (now) Cody Ross with his? Both contracts are similar to Swisher's, just for a little less money or fewer years. Still, I would take Swisher and his contract any day.
So, assuming we get good performance out of Swisher, this is a good signing for the present.
What about the future?
Note that in the 2012 draft there were 28 extra picks between the first and second round. In 2011 it was 26. In 2013 there are likely to be 1-2 extra picks before the second round. That means that the 37th pick, where the Indians would have drafted in the second round in 2013 would have been more like an early supplemental 1st round pick in previous years. A big loss in talent we could have grabbed, to be sure..
However, all is not lost. Let's look at 2012 more closely. The Indians signed Tyler Naquin (1st round) to an underslot bonus. That gave us $500,000 to spend later in the draft but, with Naquin, we likely got another Trevor Crowe-like player. The 2012 draft will be made by the guys we spent the excess we saved on Naquin's pick, NOT on Naquin but we couldn't have signed those other guys without the money we saved on Naquin..
Now, in 2013 we could have had a draft bonus pool of close to $7.5 million IF we kept our second round pick that we have forfeited for signing Swisher. Still, even losing the 37th pick and its $1.5 million bonuse we will be closer to $6 million (see list below) which is STILL about $1.5 million higher than our budget for 2012!
Likely 2013 Indians bonus slots
5th - $3.5 million
70th - $740,000
100th - $470,000
130th - $340,000
160th - $260,000
190th - $195,000
220th - $160,000
250th - $140,000
280th - $130,000
310th - $125,000
There are two pieces of good news here:
1. The slot for the 5th overall slot gives the Indians some flexibility. Last year the Royals signed the #5 pick for $3 million, saving $500,000 for later picks and he was the 3rd best prospect in the draft as rated by BA. So our savings could easily match what we saved on our first round pick last year and look what we did with that extra money!
2. The slots of the Indians' picks in 2013 are very similar to 2012 when they drafted 15th, 79th, 110th, 143rd, 173rd, 203rd, 233rd, 263rd, 293rd, 323rd meaning that if they got value out of the 2012 draft they can, in theory, get the same value out of the 2013 draft IF they save $500,000 or more on the 5th overall pick. .
So, while people are bemoaning the loss of the second round pick, and it is a big loss, the 2013 draft for the Indians could give us the same relative talent, or even better considering we are drafting 5th in the first round instead of 15th like we did in the 2012 draft. We won't get the same volume of talent in next year's draft as if we had kept that second round pick but we could still get good talent if we play our cards right!
Plus, it is likely if we have to trade Swisher in the next year or two we can get AT LEAST the equivalent of a 37th overall draft slot talent for him and one that would likely be closer to the majors than the one we would have drafted this year.
I can't believe as a draft/prospect guy I am saying this but I really think, in this case, the Indians outsmarted the market.
Bravo, Indians!
Sunday, December 23, 2012
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Bauer and other things
Trevor Bauer
Well, now we know why Bauer was available. Let's revisit these trades:One year of Choo (plus a draft choice) plus Donald plus some cash brought us Gregorius and Stubbs. This should be surprising enough for us. To mean, this supports Gregorious' middling hit tool. They don't know if he will hit so they will stick with Cozart. Bottom line to me: Gregorious is not a sure thing to be able to hit enough to start in the big leagues.
Now, we traded Gregorious for Bauer with spare parts thrown in both ways. If I don't like Gregorious that much, how could he bring Bauer? Well, Bauer, as it turns out, is quirky and a questionable teammate. Hey, but this is Clevleand and Albert Belle played here. Maybe we can hire Belle as a counselor for Bauer, helping him to navigate the intricacies of playing for the Indians and dealing with suburban Cleveland trick-or-treaters? I hope it turns out for the Indians like it turned out for them with Belle. Sometimes, as a small market team you have to gamble on a young, cheap guy, especially when it comes at the cost of Choo, Donald, Sipp and Anderson...and you net Stuffs, Albers and Shaw, too boot.
Now to trade Joe Smith in a deal with someone else to get good, young ML-ready players back.
Mark Reynolds
This is a bad signing. Now, Mark Reynolds at $2.5 million on this team is a good signing. But $6 million? Russell Branyan was as good in his prime and Russell Branyan barely earned $6 million in his entire freakin' career!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!BTW, compare Branyan's and Reynolds career stats:
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
Reynolds:
| 853 | 3443 | 2973 | 475 | 699 | 148 | 11 | 181 | 501 | 49 | 23 | 408 | 1122 | .235 | .332 | .475 | .807 | 109 | 1412 | 61 | 35 | 2 | 25 | 18 |
Branyan:
| 1059 | 3398 | 2934 | 405 | 682 | 143 | 8 | 194 | 467 | 16 | 4 | 403 | 1118 | .232 | .329 | .485 | .814 | 113 | 1423 | 31 | 30 | 4 | 27 | 30 |
Eerily similar, no?
So, how can Reynolds be worth that much more than Branyan? Answer is ONLY because the Orioles were stupid enough to pay him $5.3 million and $7 million over the past two seasons, thus inflating his value beyond belief.
The Indians were suckers to continue this trend. In another life, this guy would have gotten Russell Bramyan type deals.
Shame on the Indians for getting caught up in the Orioles overpayments. Typical Indians' waste of money. Reynolds
Nick Swisher
I like this guy, to be sure. But gosh folks, the guy is asking for the moon. If we sign this guy he instantly becomes the highest paid player on the roster....BY A FACTOR OF TWO! Yes, we will be paying him more this year than we are paying Asdrubal and Chris Perex, COMBINED.Hey, I like this guy. I really do. But I don't think he is worth that much money for one year let alone 4 years. Look, we were like 30 games worse than the Tigers last year and the Tigers have already gotten better. this winter, signing Torii Hunter, maybe even negating the gains we could get by signing Swisher.
Plus Swisher costs us our 2nd round pick next year if we sign him. That hurts us in two ways:
1. With the lack of compensation free agents any more our second round pick this year is likely to be about the 43rd pick. Last year it would have been about the 60th pick. Small market teams that had almost 100 losses last year and who have one of the weakest farm systems in baseball shouldn't be losing draft picks, period.
2. Losing that draft pick gives us less flexibility in signing guys. Here is how it works, using last year as an example. If you have high picks you are granted inflated signing bonus caps for that pick. By that I mean that, if you sign a guy who will accept a lower bonus, like we did with Naquin, you have extra money to throw at later round picks. However, if you lose that draft pick you lose it's value in your budget. Thus, you now have LESS money to throw around if you want to go cheap on your early picks AND your second pick is now in the 3rd round and will be in the 80s, where the talent is thinning out IF you have to stay close to slot, as we will,
Basically, signing Swisher gives us an inflated payroll and the loss of a draft pick which will hurt us more deeply in the draft then just the loss of the player we would have picked.
For me, I say no to signing Swisher. It is probably a moot point, anyway. If Swisher sees what I see, why would he want to come here? Little chance of winning and the chance to become part of a rebuild. Who would want that if they can get close to the same money elsewhere. No one, as Shane Victorino can attest to.
The Mark Reynolds signing took us down a bad road. Let's not compound that by signing Swisher.
I don't know who to sign (Cody Ross now looks too pricy and may be a fool's bet) but I wouldn't sign Swisher.
Just my take. .
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
OK, how does this help, exactly?
So, how does this help?
Let's summarize:
We now have NO right fielder, two centerfielders and no left fielders. One of Brantley or Stubbs will move out of centerfield for the other. However, Stubbs has not played RF in the majors (I think he has the arm for it, but not the experience) and Brantley nor any of the other OFers on the roster: Canzler, Carrera, Fedroff or Neal is capable of holding down a RF job in the majors for any longer than 15 seconds. If Stubbs plays center Brantley HAS to play LF with his rag arm.
We have no true LH relievers - We lost Raffy left, we have now traded Sipp who, as much as some people thought he sucked, he held LH batters to a .663 OPS this year. This leaves us with Nick Hagadone who has a greivance filed against the Indians and Scott Barnes as potential LH relievers on the 40-man roster. Thus prompting us to overpay some mediocre loogy or go the bargain basement route.
We are now back to Brantley as a leadoff hitter. Not that this a necessarily a bad thing since Brantley's OBP has continued to improve over the past 3 years up to a good .348 this past season. He may be ready to be our full-time leadoff hitter except that he hit .225 as a leadoff hitter in 2012, prompting Choo to be installed as the leadoff hitter. So, Brantley is no sure thing to replace Choo leading off in our pathetic offense.
Too many RH relievers - After the trade, on our roster we have: Cody Allen, Frank Herrmann, Chen Lee, Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, Blake Wood and now Bryan Shaw and Matt Albers. While you can never have too much pitching you can have assets that are not helping the big league club most of the year. Adding Shaw and Albers pushed two people out of a job. Unless you are going to trade the extra RH relievers, adding Shaw and Albers really added no value to this club.
If we trade Cabrera we have no utility infielder depth - Yeah, Donald didn't hit well but he was cheap. If you keep Cabrera you have upgraded with Aviles as your utility infielder. Otherwise, you have downgraded at both SS and utility infielder.
You lost Lars Anderson - OK, stop laughing for a second. Sure, we had to make roster space. But we are not set at all at DH and 1B. Losing this guy lowers the odds of finding someone out of the meh group of guys to fill those slots. Not that Anderson would have made the team but he certainly can't now. Yeah, Anderson was a throw-in, but....
Remember, Marco Scutaro was a throw-in in a trade. Luke Scott was a throw-in in a trade. Get the point?
So, again I ask, how does this help 2013?
I know Bauer helps the future but how does this trade help the present if Bauer isn't ready?
Let's summarize:
We now have NO right fielder, two centerfielders and no left fielders. One of Brantley or Stubbs will move out of centerfield for the other. However, Stubbs has not played RF in the majors (I think he has the arm for it, but not the experience) and Brantley nor any of the other OFers on the roster: Canzler, Carrera, Fedroff or Neal is capable of holding down a RF job in the majors for any longer than 15 seconds. If Stubbs plays center Brantley HAS to play LF with his rag arm.
We have no true LH relievers - We lost Raffy left, we have now traded Sipp who, as much as some people thought he sucked, he held LH batters to a .663 OPS this year. This leaves us with Nick Hagadone who has a greivance filed against the Indians and Scott Barnes as potential LH relievers on the 40-man roster. Thus prompting us to overpay some mediocre loogy or go the bargain basement route.
We are now back to Brantley as a leadoff hitter. Not that this a necessarily a bad thing since Brantley's OBP has continued to improve over the past 3 years up to a good .348 this past season. He may be ready to be our full-time leadoff hitter except that he hit .225 as a leadoff hitter in 2012, prompting Choo to be installed as the leadoff hitter. So, Brantley is no sure thing to replace Choo leading off in our pathetic offense.
Too many RH relievers - After the trade, on our roster we have: Cody Allen, Frank Herrmann, Chen Lee, Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, Blake Wood and now Bryan Shaw and Matt Albers. While you can never have too much pitching you can have assets that are not helping the big league club most of the year. Adding Shaw and Albers pushed two people out of a job. Unless you are going to trade the extra RH relievers, adding Shaw and Albers really added no value to this club.
If we trade Cabrera we have no utility infielder depth - Yeah, Donald didn't hit well but he was cheap. If you keep Cabrera you have upgraded with Aviles as your utility infielder. Otherwise, you have downgraded at both SS and utility infielder.
You lost Lars Anderson - OK, stop laughing for a second. Sure, we had to make roster space. But we are not set at all at DH and 1B. Losing this guy lowers the odds of finding someone out of the meh group of guys to fill those slots. Not that Anderson would have made the team but he certainly can't now. Yeah, Anderson was a throw-in, but....
Remember, Marco Scutaro was a throw-in in a trade. Luke Scott was a throw-in in a trade. Get the point?
So, again I ask, how does this help 2013?
I know Bauer helps the future but how does this trade help the present if Bauer isn't ready?
Monday, December 10, 2012
We've just gone back to the 80s
Signing Mark Reynolds is the kind of futile gesture that the Indians of the 80s would have done. You have gaping holes on a 68-94 team and your solution to that is to overpay ($6-7.5 million) a marginal free agent whose productivity you could get from your in-house options.
The kind of move that has fall-flat-on-your-face written all over it.
I don't know, if Reynolds were available in a trade, I would have traded Rondon and McFarland for him. But wait, we don't have Rondon and McFarland BECAUSE WE ALREADY LOST THEM IN THE RULE 5 draft.
But we did draft another first baseman in that draft, Chris McGuiness. Yeah, that looks like a really smart move now, doesn't it? McGuiness lasted all of about 4 days before we made him totally expendable.
This organization is such horsecrap because their moves don't make sense when they are made and, in many cases with this one as an example, contradict earlier moves.
True Indians fans, all 150 of us, are so numb by now that moves like this mostly roll of our backs.
But losing Rondon and McFarland, picking up McGuiness and then making him irrelevant with the bloated signing of Reynolds is just about as comically pathetic as you can get.
I can't wait to see what we get back if we trade Asdrubal Cabrera.
Memo to Indians' organization:
(1) Bend over
(2) Put hands on tops of your shoulders
(3) With a quick yet forceful motion, full your head out of your rear end
(4) After (3) is accomplished, do something really smart for a change!
Seems simple, but the simplicity of this seems to allude Antonetti.
The kind of move that has fall-flat-on-your-face written all over it.
I don't know, if Reynolds were available in a trade, I would have traded Rondon and McFarland for him. But wait, we don't have Rondon and McFarland BECAUSE WE ALREADY LOST THEM IN THE RULE 5 draft.
But we did draft another first baseman in that draft, Chris McGuiness. Yeah, that looks like a really smart move now, doesn't it? McGuiness lasted all of about 4 days before we made him totally expendable.
This organization is such horsecrap because their moves don't make sense when they are made and, in many cases with this one as an example, contradict earlier moves.
True Indians fans, all 150 of us, are so numb by now that moves like this mostly roll of our backs.
But losing Rondon and McFarland, picking up McGuiness and then making him irrelevant with the bloated signing of Reynolds is just about as comically pathetic as you can get.
I can't wait to see what we get back if we trade Asdrubal Cabrera.
Memo to Indians' organization:
(1) Bend over
(2) Put hands on tops of your shoulders
(3) With a quick yet forceful motion, full your head out of your rear end
(4) After (3) is accomplished, do something really smart for a change!
Seems simple, but the simplicity of this seems to allude Antonetti.
Friday, December 7, 2012
The moronic front office strikes again
SIX. We have six guys on our ML roster (or AAA) who are fringe major league firstbasemen or firstbasemen/utility players. SIX.
Lars Anderson
Mike McDade
Mike LaPorta
Yan Gomes
Russ Canzler
Chris McGuness (selected today in the Rule 5)
So the one guy we selected in the Rule 5 is a guy who is at a position where he is competing with 5 other guys to make the 25-man roster? Really? Do these FO idiots know that they actually have to keep McGuiness on their 25-man roster for most of the season to not lose him? Here is a news flash, morons. YOU DON'T SELECT PLAYERS IN THE RULE 5 THAT YOU ARE DEEP IN ON YOUR ML ROSTER!!!!!!!!!!!!
At the same time in the Rule 5 draft today we lost TWO pitchers, Hector Rondon and TJ McFarland.
I had predicted that Rondon would be gone with the first pick in the Rule 5 draft. I was wrong. He lasted until the second pick.
The Indians also lost TJ McFarland, a guy with #5 starter stuff but who may carve a career for himself as a LOOGY or a long man in the bullpen. He is the true soft tossing lefty but, nevertheless, he should have been protected.
So, the Indians have dissed an old axiom and today coined a new one.
Dissed axiom: You can never have enough pitching
Indians' axiom: You can never have enough fringe major league firstbasemen
Perfect, guys. The FO is now cementing its place as among the dumbest, most ineffective front offices in Cleveland Indians' history. Maybe there will be a labor stoppage that will wipe out all of the 2013 ML season and give the Dolans time to sell the team and the new owner time to trash this pathetic excuse for a front office.
Lars Anderson
Mike McDade
Mike LaPorta
Yan Gomes
Russ Canzler
Chris McGuness (selected today in the Rule 5)
So the one guy we selected in the Rule 5 is a guy who is at a position where he is competing with 5 other guys to make the 25-man roster? Really? Do these FO idiots know that they actually have to keep McGuiness on their 25-man roster for most of the season to not lose him? Here is a news flash, morons. YOU DON'T SELECT PLAYERS IN THE RULE 5 THAT YOU ARE DEEP IN ON YOUR ML ROSTER!!!!!!!!!!!!
At the same time in the Rule 5 draft today we lost TWO pitchers, Hector Rondon and TJ McFarland.
I had predicted that Rondon would be gone with the first pick in the Rule 5 draft. I was wrong. He lasted until the second pick.
The Indians also lost TJ McFarland, a guy with #5 starter stuff but who may carve a career for himself as a LOOGY or a long man in the bullpen. He is the true soft tossing lefty but, nevertheless, he should have been protected.
So, the Indians have dissed an old axiom and today coined a new one.
Dissed axiom: You can never have enough pitching
Indians' axiom: You can never have enough fringe major league firstbasemen
Perfect, guys. The FO is now cementing its place as among the dumbest, most ineffective front offices in Cleveland Indians' history. Maybe there will be a labor stoppage that will wipe out all of the 2013 ML season and give the Dolans time to sell the team and the new owner time to trash this pathetic excuse for a front office.
Monday, December 3, 2012
Winter Meetings and other things - Musings on a Monday
I know my posts have been few and far between recently. Like the major leagues, I have taken some time to collect myself. Here are some thoughts:
Winter Meetings - What are we doing?
Again, I am scratching my head. We hire Terry Francona whose major assets are having managed Boston to championships and, as a result, having enough credibility to recruit good players (i.e., free agents) to want to come here. You don't hire championship caliber managers to lead a rebuilding program, right?
So, what the heck are we doing? I don't think we are flying under the radar with free agents. We are still picking guys off the waiver wire (McDade and Woods). We haven't made any moves that would say we are 'going for it'. So what the heck are we doing?
So now the rumor is we are going to make trades. We all realize, don't we, that this is simple addition/subtraction. You start with a 68-94 team and you subtract AstroCab, Choo and CPerez. Those are huge losses. You have to assume, at best, you get back equal ML ready talent that is probably cheaper. So now you are at 68-94 with a smaller payroll and maybe a little longer opening for your 'window'. Yeah, in a perfect world if Detroit crumbled, everyone else in the division stunk it up, all of our guys had career years and Aviles and Pestano played up and if we could get someone to replace Choo and Pestano's setup role, we could compete.
Or, more likely, we are moving towards a deep rebuild. But then why Francona? Wouldn't you have expected that we give that job to Sandy Alomar Jr.? Do we really think Francona came here to be a nursemaid to a young team? Hey, against the odds maybe Francona did. Otherwise, you pick Alomar Jr., right? Still, a deep rebuild IS the best way to go. Actually the Toronto-Marlins trade HELPS the Indians in a rebuild situation. While the value of the players Toronto got was much more than what the Marlins got, it make it a seller's market for teams dealing with the AL East. You gotta answer quickly in this division or you are going to be in 4th place before you know it. So maybe we have partners there who will give us a low A/high A/AA bounty for our three studs and maybe Masterson.
So, color me confused. I just hope we aren't trying to do a rebuild and compete at the same time thing again. Remember how that turned out last time. I mean, all you have to do is say 'Matt Lawton' and I break out in a cold sweat. So, let's hope we are not that stupid again but that is one of the few things that make sense at this point.
Rule 5 Predictions - Who will we lose?
Major League Phase
We lose Hector Rondon, probably on the first pick to Houston
50% we lose Austin Adams, Chun Chen
25% we lose Rob Bryson, TJ McFarland, Bryce Stowell, Giovanny Urshela, Matt Langwell, Roberto Perez
AAA/AA Phases
We lose Delvi Cid
50% chance we lose Kyle Bellows, Adam Abraham, Francisco Valera, Francisco Jimenez, Jordan Henry, Bo Greenwell
Do we pick anyone up? Well, we might. But I doubt it. Going to arbitration with Wood and adding McDade to the roster tells me that the Rule 5 is not how we will be bottom feeding this year. Plus, the few times we have tried we haven't had much luck so I don't think we pick up anyone in the ML phase and probably pick up 1-2 guys no one has ever heard of the minor league phase, especially if we lose Roberto Perez in the ML phase.
That's it for now.
Winter Meetings - What are we doing?
Again, I am scratching my head. We hire Terry Francona whose major assets are having managed Boston to championships and, as a result, having enough credibility to recruit good players (i.e., free agents) to want to come here. You don't hire championship caliber managers to lead a rebuilding program, right?
So, what the heck are we doing? I don't think we are flying under the radar with free agents. We are still picking guys off the waiver wire (McDade and Woods). We haven't made any moves that would say we are 'going for it'. So what the heck are we doing?
So now the rumor is we are going to make trades. We all realize, don't we, that this is simple addition/subtraction. You start with a 68-94 team and you subtract AstroCab, Choo and CPerez. Those are huge losses. You have to assume, at best, you get back equal ML ready talent that is probably cheaper. So now you are at 68-94 with a smaller payroll and maybe a little longer opening for your 'window'. Yeah, in a perfect world if Detroit crumbled, everyone else in the division stunk it up, all of our guys had career years and Aviles and Pestano played up and if we could get someone to replace Choo and Pestano's setup role, we could compete.
Or, more likely, we are moving towards a deep rebuild. But then why Francona? Wouldn't you have expected that we give that job to Sandy Alomar Jr.? Do we really think Francona came here to be a nursemaid to a young team? Hey, against the odds maybe Francona did. Otherwise, you pick Alomar Jr., right? Still, a deep rebuild IS the best way to go. Actually the Toronto-Marlins trade HELPS the Indians in a rebuild situation. While the value of the players Toronto got was much more than what the Marlins got, it make it a seller's market for teams dealing with the AL East. You gotta answer quickly in this division or you are going to be in 4th place before you know it. So maybe we have partners there who will give us a low A/high A/AA bounty for our three studs and maybe Masterson.
So, color me confused. I just hope we aren't trying to do a rebuild and compete at the same time thing again. Remember how that turned out last time. I mean, all you have to do is say 'Matt Lawton' and I break out in a cold sweat. So, let's hope we are not that stupid again but that is one of the few things that make sense at this point.
Rule 5 Predictions - Who will we lose?
Major League Phase
We lose Hector Rondon, probably on the first pick to Houston
50% we lose Austin Adams, Chun Chen
25% we lose Rob Bryson, TJ McFarland, Bryce Stowell, Giovanny Urshela, Matt Langwell, Roberto Perez
AAA/AA Phases
We lose Delvi Cid
50% chance we lose Kyle Bellows, Adam Abraham, Francisco Valera, Francisco Jimenez, Jordan Henry, Bo Greenwell
Do we pick anyone up? Well, we might. But I doubt it. Going to arbitration with Wood and adding McDade to the roster tells me that the Rule 5 is not how we will be bottom feeding this year. Plus, the few times we have tried we haven't had much luck so I don't think we pick up anyone in the ML phase and probably pick up 1-2 guys no one has ever heard of the minor league phase, especially if we lose Roberto Perez in the ML phase.
That's it for now.
Saturday, November 17, 2012
It's 40-man roster time and other things
First, if we wanted to compete, REALLY wanted to compete, we would have made the trade the Blue Jays made with the Marlins. It would have filled most of our needs and we had the prospects to get Miami to trade with us. The scary thing is not the risk of making the trade but the potentially moronic things we will do this off-season trying to bottom feed to compete when our problems need much more than bottom feeding to fix.
Second, regarding the 40-man roster there are two issues: who do we remove and who do we add.
Who do we remove?
The answers are pretty obvious to me. We need to remove Chris Seddon, Blake Wood, Lars Anderson, Brent Lillibridge and Ezequiel Carrera.
Face it, these guys can be replaced by 4A guys any time we want to add one. Why waste roster spots on these guys?
If we need extra roster spots we then DFA, in order, Thomas Neal, Fabio Martinez and Cord Phelps
Also, we need to dump Jack Hannahan.
This gives us a total of 9 roster spots to work with, 5 being solid.
Who do we add?
Looking at the Indians players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft, here is who we add: T.J. House, T.J. McFarland and Chun Chen.
Why not Jesus Aguilar, Trey Haley, Carlos Moncrief, Tim Fedroff, Bryce Stowell, Trey Haley, Rob Bryson or Giovanny Urshela? They won't stick even if they are drafted. They just aren't ready AND their upside is still questionable even if they did stick. There are reasons that guys who we feel are attractive selections never are even drafted in the Rule 5 and the above guys mirror all those reasons.
Why not Matt Packer, Austin Adams or Chen Lee? They were top prospects for the Indians last year but won't be ready and have to shake the dust off them for this season. They would probably not make the active roster long enough this year to be able to sent to the minors at the beginning of next year.
So we remove 5 and add 4, leaving us one open roster spot plus Hannahan's spot.
Now let's see what REALLY happens.
Second, regarding the 40-man roster there are two issues: who do we remove and who do we add.
Who do we remove?
The answers are pretty obvious to me. We need to remove Chris Seddon, Blake Wood, Lars Anderson, Brent Lillibridge and Ezequiel Carrera.
Face it, these guys can be replaced by 4A guys any time we want to add one. Why waste roster spots on these guys?
If we need extra roster spots we then DFA, in order, Thomas Neal, Fabio Martinez and Cord Phelps
Also, we need to dump Jack Hannahan.
This gives us a total of 9 roster spots to work with, 5 being solid.
Who do we add?
Looking at the Indians players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft, here is who we add: T.J. House, T.J. McFarland and Chun Chen.
Why not Jesus Aguilar, Trey Haley, Carlos Moncrief, Tim Fedroff, Bryce Stowell, Trey Haley, Rob Bryson or Giovanny Urshela? They won't stick even if they are drafted. They just aren't ready AND their upside is still questionable even if they did stick. There are reasons that guys who we feel are attractive selections never are even drafted in the Rule 5 and the above guys mirror all those reasons.
Why not Matt Packer, Austin Adams or Chen Lee? They were top prospects for the Indians last year but won't be ready and have to shake the dust off them for this season. They would probably not make the active roster long enough this year to be able to sent to the minors at the beginning of next year.
So we remove 5 and add 4, leaving us one open roster spot plus Hannahan's spot.
Now let's see what REALLY happens.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
2012 Predictions - How did they work out?
Let's dust off my 2012 predictions and see how they worked out:
Columbus Clippers
Akron Aeros
Lake County
MVP: Felix Sterling, LeVon Washington
Biggest Surprise: LeVon Washington, Alex Lavisky, Kyle Blair
Biggest Disappointment: Francisco Lindor (he is too young and inexperienced to be here, just like Lavisky was last year)
Cleveland Indians
Record: 70-92
MVP: Justin Masterson
Biggest Surprise: Lonnie Chisenhall
Biggest Disappointment: Ubaldo Jimenez
Result: I was within two games of this disaster as the Indians finished 88-94. I think we will all agree that Jimenez was the biggest disappointment but Chisenhall getting hurt made that prediction impossible. That Chris Perez (or his mouth) was really the MVP speaks volumes of why we collapsed.
MVP: Justin Masterson
Biggest Surprise: Lonnie Chisenhall
Biggest Disappointment: Ubaldo Jimenez
Result: I was within two games of this disaster as the Indians finished 88-94. I think we will all agree that Jimenez was the biggest disappointment but Chisenhall getting hurt made that prediction impossible. That Chris Perez (or his mouth) was really the MVP speaks volumes of why we collapsed.
Columbus Clippers
This will be an interesting team. On paper it is the best team, top to bottom, that the Clippers have had. The starting pitching is great, the bullpen is deep, the position players are experienced and hungry and know, with a good performance, they stand a good chance to play in Cleveland this year.
Record: 85-59
MVP: Lonnie Chisenhall
Biggest Disappointment: Matt LaPorta
Biggest Surprise: Beau Mills
Record: 85-59
MVP: Lonnie Chisenhall
Biggest Disappointment: Matt LaPorta
Biggest Surprise: Beau Mills
Result: Well my prediction was off as they didn't even make the playoffs. They did finish 75-69 but their performance was relatively disappointing as was the performance of LaPorta (predicted) and the lack of performance/trade of Mills (not predicted)
Akron Aeros
Akron will benefit from the position player backup at Columbus. Their starting pitching will probably be weak but the bullpen is strong and the position players are mainly prospects with some talent who are, due to too many guys at AAA, are repeating this level.
Record: 83-61
MVP: Tim Fedroff, Jared Goedert
Biggest Surprise: Nick Weglarz, Rob Bryson
Biggest Disappointment: Kyle Bellows
Record: 83-61
MVP: Tim Fedroff, Jared Goedert
Biggest Surprise: Nick Weglarz, Rob Bryson
Biggest Disappointment: Kyle Bellows
Result: They finished 82-59 so I was close there. I was probably correct about the MVP if Fedroff and Goedert had stayed but was wrong about Weglarz, lukewarm regarding Bryson and dead on, in part due to injury, with Bellows.
Carolina Mudcats
Carolina Mudcats
New team, same league, different results. Carolina will finish with a 60-84 overall record and fail to make the playoffs.
Record: 60-84
MVP: Carlos Moncrief
Biggest Surprise: Cody Allen, Carlos Moncrief, Ronny Rodriguez
Biggest Disappointment: Tyler Holt, Jake Lowery, Tony Wolters (only because of his age)
Record: 60-84
MVP: Carlos Moncrief
Biggest Surprise: Cody Allen, Carlos Moncrief, Ronny Rodriguez
Biggest Disappointment: Tyler Holt, Jake Lowery, Tony Wolters (only because of his age)
Results: Again, close with the finish, they finished 63-77. Not close with the MVP as Moncrief didn't come on as I expected. Close with biggest surprise with Cody Allen and Ronny Rodriguez. Very close with the bigget disappointment being Lowery, lukewarm on Holt and wrong on Wolters as he exceeded my expectations.
Lake County
Same team, different year, different result. This team will sizzle this year. All the guys who underperformed there last year will perform very well this year.
Record: 90-54
Record: 90-54
MVP: Felix Sterling, LeVon Washington
Biggest Surprise: LeVon Washington, Alex Lavisky, Kyle Blair
Biggest Disappointment: Francisco Lindor (he is too young and inexperienced to be here, just like Lavisky was last year)
Results: They only finished 71-68 and when you look at my MVP candidates and biggest surprise candidates you can see why. I also was way wrong on LIndor although his offense was just passable, even for his age at this level. They did make it to the second round of the playoffs, however, and were tied after 6 innings of the deciding game in that round until Pasquale imploded.
So, there you have it. Not a bad set of predictions for 2012. Maybe I am getting better at this stuff or maybe I was just lucky this year.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
One game left and still drama
One game left and the top of the 2013 draft order is taking shape. Right now we know this about that order:
1. Houston
2. Cubs
3. Colorado
4. Minnesota
5. Cleveland with a magic number of 1 (that is, one victory by Florida or one loss by Cleveland)
6. Miami, unless they lose and Cleveland wins tomorrow; if they lose they have 6th place even if Cleveland loses
7. Boston, even with their 9 losses in 10 games slide, they still can only tie Cleveland (the Indians win the tiebreaker based on worse record in 2011) so they can't sneak up to 5th but might be able to end up 6th with a loss and a Miami win. If they tie Miami, the Marlins with the 2011 record tiebreaker.
8. Kansas City Magic number 1 - a Kansas City loss or a Toronto win locks up this slot for them.
9. Toronto - Magic number of 1 (one loss or a Mets win)
10. Mets unless they lose and Toronto wins, in which case they tie Toronto and win the 2011 record tiebreaker..
The issue here is that this is the raw slotting. MLB Trade Rumors is saying that the Pirates will slot in 9th since they couldn't sign Mark Appel last year and so right now, using that logic, Toronto is 10th and the Mets are 11th. The significance of that is only the top 10 slots in the first round are protected if you sign a free agent away from a team that has made him a qualifying offer (i.e., a $12-13 million one year contract). Therefore right now Toronto is 10th and the Mets are 11th if the Pittsburgh compensation pick really counts in that top 10.
Right now that top 8 above are guaranteed to have a protected first round pick in 2013. All the suspense that is left, and there is plenty of it, is who will pick 5th-10th next year and who will be the team that is left out of the top 10 due to Pittsburgh's compensation pick, if that pick even counts against the 10 protected picks in the first round. It is funny that a compensation pick for not signing a draft pick which would be lost if not used this year, could be used against that top 10 but that is what Trade Rumors is reporting.
1. Houston
2. Cubs
3. Colorado
4. Minnesota
5. Cleveland with a magic number of 1 (that is, one victory by Florida or one loss by Cleveland)
6. Miami, unless they lose and Cleveland wins tomorrow; if they lose they have 6th place even if Cleveland loses
7. Boston, even with their 9 losses in 10 games slide, they still can only tie Cleveland (the Indians win the tiebreaker based on worse record in 2011) so they can't sneak up to 5th but might be able to end up 6th with a loss and a Miami win. If they tie Miami, the Marlins with the 2011 record tiebreaker.
8. Kansas City Magic number 1 - a Kansas City loss or a Toronto win locks up this slot for them.
9. Toronto - Magic number of 1 (one loss or a Mets win)
10. Mets unless they lose and Toronto wins, in which case they tie Toronto and win the 2011 record tiebreaker..
The issue here is that this is the raw slotting. MLB Trade Rumors is saying that the Pirates will slot in 9th since they couldn't sign Mark Appel last year and so right now, using that logic, Toronto is 10th and the Mets are 11th. The significance of that is only the top 10 slots in the first round are protected if you sign a free agent away from a team that has made him a qualifying offer (i.e., a $12-13 million one year contract). Therefore right now Toronto is 10th and the Mets are 11th if the Pittsburgh compensation pick really counts in that top 10.
Right now that top 8 above are guaranteed to have a protected first round pick in 2013. All the suspense that is left, and there is plenty of it, is who will pick 5th-10th next year and who will be the team that is left out of the top 10 due to Pittsburgh's compensation pick, if that pick even counts against the 10 protected picks in the first round. It is funny that a compensation pick for not signing a draft pick which would be lost if not used this year, could be used against that top 10 but that is what Trade Rumors is reporting.
Monday, October 1, 2012
Who says there is no drama left this year!
We have 3 games to go and the 4th, 5th and 6th slots for next year's draft are still undecided (along with a bunch of other draft slots, of course).
For those of you following this blog you know that I have been keeping a running tally along the left margin to update you on where the Indians stand. This is also available on other sources, I am sure, one of those being mlbtraderumors.com.
Right now the Indians, on the heels of their 6-4 record in their last 10 games, have moved from the 4th slot in next year's draft to the 6th slot. They are currently 0.5 games behind Miami who have moved up the draft ladder by going 1-9 in their last 10 games. They are 1.5 games behind Minnesota who they have been battling over the last month for the 5th slot.
Miami finishes the season with three games against the Mets. Minnesota finishes with 3 games against Toronto. Cleveland finishes with three against the White Sox. Thus you would say that Cleveland has the advantage as Chicago is the only one of the three opponents that has not been eliminated from the pennant race. Unfortunately, due largely to the two games that the Tribe took last week from the White Sox in Chicago, the best the South Siders can do is tie for the AL Central Championship. The Detroit's magic number of 1 it is likely that the second and third games of this series will have the White Sox playing their AA/AAA roster against the Indians at some point as those guys have probably not gotten much PT with the Sox still in the race.
Also, Boston is two games "behind" the Indians at this point and if they lose all three and the Indians win all three Boston will pass Cleveland in the draft.
Why do we care about this? Well, if you are going to suck, suck bad so you get the highest draft pick. The higher the draft pick the better. The one thing we found out last year is that the budgets for each slot in the draft go up exponentially, it seems. Here are the budgets for the top 8 slots last year:
1. $7.2 million
2. $6.2 million
3. $5.2 million
4. $4.2 million
5. $3.5 million
6. $3.2 million
7. $3.0 million
8. $2.9 million
It's all about flexibility. The difference between the 1st slot and the 4th slot in the first round is $3 million. The difference between the 4th and 6th spot in the draft is $1 million. So, the higher your budget, the more flexibility you have to save money if you draft a guy who will sign for under slot. The Indians did that this year in drafting Tyler Naquin and Kieran Lovegrove for less than slot and using that excess to sign Mitch Brown and D'Vonne McClure to overslot bonuses. But still, you have more flexibility the higher you draft because the greater your budget, a lot of which is determined by your first round pick position.
If the Indians finish 4th and draft a player who they sign for $3.0 million or draft that same player 6th and they sign him for $3 million, the differeence is that they have $1 million extra to spend later on. The talent of the player is the same, just your budget for that pick is higher. Who wouldn't draft the more signable player 4th if you were going to draft him 6th?
Add to this that the draft this year will have fewer picks in it. There will be fewer compensation picks as teams have to first MAKE a qualifying offer to a free agent to get any compensation. That offer will be in the $13 million for a one year deal range so not many free agents will get that kind of offer. In addition, if a player gets a qualifying offer and signs with another team his former team is compensated with a sandwich pick BUT the first (or second) round pick by the team that signed the player is just lost, it doesn't go to the team that lost the player.
So, you are losing picks in the first and maybe second round due to teams signing free agents with qualifying offers and the compensation round, except for the competitive balance lottery winners (12 overall with the Indians getting a pick after the second round) is actually getting smaller so this draft should have less picks in the top 3 rounds than usual. That means more prospects available in every round and the team with the most picks and the highest budget should be able, with shrewd drafting, to get better talent than its competition AND not be subject to any penalties.
Add to all that that your options are better the higher you draft in EVERY round and while the difference between 1st and 8th in the draft is huge, the difference between even 4th and 6th is significant.
So, while we yawn through the last series of the season and grimace while we watch Vinnie Rottino, Casey Kotchman, Jack Hannahan and even Thomas Neal get ABs they don't deserve, realize that the Indians are still playing for something.
They are playing for flexibility in the 2013 draft. Go Tribe! Get some flexibility.
For those of you following this blog you know that I have been keeping a running tally along the left margin to update you on where the Indians stand. This is also available on other sources, I am sure, one of those being mlbtraderumors.com.
Right now the Indians, on the heels of their 6-4 record in their last 10 games, have moved from the 4th slot in next year's draft to the 6th slot. They are currently 0.5 games behind Miami who have moved up the draft ladder by going 1-9 in their last 10 games. They are 1.5 games behind Minnesota who they have been battling over the last month for the 5th slot.
Miami finishes the season with three games against the Mets. Minnesota finishes with 3 games against Toronto. Cleveland finishes with three against the White Sox. Thus you would say that Cleveland has the advantage as Chicago is the only one of the three opponents that has not been eliminated from the pennant race. Unfortunately, due largely to the two games that the Tribe took last week from the White Sox in Chicago, the best the South Siders can do is tie for the AL Central Championship. The Detroit's magic number of 1 it is likely that the second and third games of this series will have the White Sox playing their AA/AAA roster against the Indians at some point as those guys have probably not gotten much PT with the Sox still in the race.
Also, Boston is two games "behind" the Indians at this point and if they lose all three and the Indians win all three Boston will pass Cleveland in the draft.
Why do we care about this? Well, if you are going to suck, suck bad so you get the highest draft pick. The higher the draft pick the better. The one thing we found out last year is that the budgets for each slot in the draft go up exponentially, it seems. Here are the budgets for the top 8 slots last year:
1. $7.2 million
2. $6.2 million
3. $5.2 million
4. $4.2 million
5. $3.5 million
6. $3.2 million
7. $3.0 million
8. $2.9 million
It's all about flexibility. The difference between the 1st slot and the 4th slot in the first round is $3 million. The difference between the 4th and 6th spot in the draft is $1 million. So, the higher your budget, the more flexibility you have to save money if you draft a guy who will sign for under slot. The Indians did that this year in drafting Tyler Naquin and Kieran Lovegrove for less than slot and using that excess to sign Mitch Brown and D'Vonne McClure to overslot bonuses. But still, you have more flexibility the higher you draft because the greater your budget, a lot of which is determined by your first round pick position.
If the Indians finish 4th and draft a player who they sign for $3.0 million or draft that same player 6th and they sign him for $3 million, the differeence is that they have $1 million extra to spend later on. The talent of the player is the same, just your budget for that pick is higher. Who wouldn't draft the more signable player 4th if you were going to draft him 6th?
Add to this that the draft this year will have fewer picks in it. There will be fewer compensation picks as teams have to first MAKE a qualifying offer to a free agent to get any compensation. That offer will be in the $13 million for a one year deal range so not many free agents will get that kind of offer. In addition, if a player gets a qualifying offer and signs with another team his former team is compensated with a sandwich pick BUT the first (or second) round pick by the team that signed the player is just lost, it doesn't go to the team that lost the player.
So, you are losing picks in the first and maybe second round due to teams signing free agents with qualifying offers and the compensation round, except for the competitive balance lottery winners (12 overall with the Indians getting a pick after the second round) is actually getting smaller so this draft should have less picks in the top 3 rounds than usual. That means more prospects available in every round and the team with the most picks and the highest budget should be able, with shrewd drafting, to get better talent than its competition AND not be subject to any penalties.
Add to all that that your options are better the higher you draft in EVERY round and while the difference between 1st and 8th in the draft is huge, the difference between even 4th and 6th is significant.
So, while we yawn through the last series of the season and grimace while we watch Vinnie Rottino, Casey Kotchman, Jack Hannahan and even Thomas Neal get ABs they don't deserve, realize that the Indians are still playing for something.
They are playing for flexibility in the 2013 draft. Go Tribe! Get some flexibility.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Another in a long line of moronic moves.
When people are promoted in a company in many cases they leave a void. That is, there is no one good enough to replace them so they just pick the next guy in line, even if he is incompetent.
So it goes with the Cleveland Indians.
In another move whose timing can only be described as moronic, the Indians fired Manny Acta today.
What is to be gained by this? There are 6 freakin' games left!
Were the Indians ticked at Acta because he won 2 games in Chicago, jeopardizing their 4th slot in the draft next year?
Aside from that, what on earth could have caused them to fire him now?
Manny Acta stinks as a manager. I said when he was hired that it was a joke to have a guy who stunk it up in Washington as your manager. As I wrote before, his teams have tanked it after May in every year except when they stunk equally bad before and after May. Saying he did the best he can to win is like saying I did the best I could to be a major league baseball player. Lots of effort, no talent. Like me, Acta should have given up after little league.
But firing him now? Did Dolan fall asleep in June and just wake up now? I don't think so. But then why?
Here is my theory. Antonnetti knows he is gone and he was going to get the pleasure of publically humiliating Acta by dumping him now, during the season. Say what you want about Acta stinking but Antonnetti is the real cause of this mess. Between Antonnetti and Shapiro/Mirabelli/Grant, this franchise is so messed up it could very well, as I predicted after the Jimenez trade went south, not have another winning season for 10 years.
Now, that being said, they do have a GOOD chance to win next year if they invest in three players (#2 starter, power hitting RH firstbaseman AND left fielder) and if everyone has a good to great year. While you may laugh at this it is very possible. They really have a pretty strong team if they can get a couple or three pretty good players. No superstars like Pujols or Miguel Cabrera or Konerko but solid from 1-9, 1-5 and in innings 7-9, with REAL depth in the pitching staff.
This team, with the right manager, can win next year. I wonder if the Indians are thinking that manager is Sandy Alomar Jr. and wanted to snag him before his contract expired.
I hope so because if they canned Acta because they were upset with his perfomance this year, they were only about 60 games too late (actually almost 500 games too late for my taste). But, with that clown Antonnetti at the helm and with Shapiro apparently taking a hands off instead of hands around Antonnetti's throat approach, they could have really thought that firing your manager with 6 games left made some sort of statement to the fans about the team's desire to win next year.
So, Acta is gone and Antonnetti should be gone. If life was built around poetic justice, Antonnetti should be banned to being a vendor next year at the Prog. That way the few fans who show up will have the opportunity to tell Chris up close and personal what an idiot he is and how much they REALLY don't like that he has doomed this franchise to 10 years of bad, bad baseball.
Vinnie Rottino playing, Manny Acta fired. Yep, polish up that resume' Chris. You are on the street in days!
So it goes with the Cleveland Indians.
In another move whose timing can only be described as moronic, the Indians fired Manny Acta today.
What is to be gained by this? There are 6 freakin' games left!
Were the Indians ticked at Acta because he won 2 games in Chicago, jeopardizing their 4th slot in the draft next year?
Aside from that, what on earth could have caused them to fire him now?
Manny Acta stinks as a manager. I said when he was hired that it was a joke to have a guy who stunk it up in Washington as your manager. As I wrote before, his teams have tanked it after May in every year except when they stunk equally bad before and after May. Saying he did the best he can to win is like saying I did the best I could to be a major league baseball player. Lots of effort, no talent. Like me, Acta should have given up after little league.
But firing him now? Did Dolan fall asleep in June and just wake up now? I don't think so. But then why?
Here is my theory. Antonnetti knows he is gone and he was going to get the pleasure of publically humiliating Acta by dumping him now, during the season. Say what you want about Acta stinking but Antonnetti is the real cause of this mess. Between Antonnetti and Shapiro/Mirabelli/Grant, this franchise is so messed up it could very well, as I predicted after the Jimenez trade went south, not have another winning season for 10 years.
Now, that being said, they do have a GOOD chance to win next year if they invest in three players (#2 starter, power hitting RH firstbaseman AND left fielder) and if everyone has a good to great year. While you may laugh at this it is very possible. They really have a pretty strong team if they can get a couple or three pretty good players. No superstars like Pujols or Miguel Cabrera or Konerko but solid from 1-9, 1-5 and in innings 7-9, with REAL depth in the pitching staff.
This team, with the right manager, can win next year. I wonder if the Indians are thinking that manager is Sandy Alomar Jr. and wanted to snag him before his contract expired.
I hope so because if they canned Acta because they were upset with his perfomance this year, they were only about 60 games too late (actually almost 500 games too late for my taste). But, with that clown Antonnetti at the helm and with Shapiro apparently taking a hands off instead of hands around Antonnetti's throat approach, they could have really thought that firing your manager with 6 games left made some sort of statement to the fans about the team's desire to win next year.
So, Acta is gone and Antonnetti should be gone. If life was built around poetic justice, Antonnetti should be banned to being a vendor next year at the Prog. That way the few fans who show up will have the opportunity to tell Chris up close and personal what an idiot he is and how much they REALLY don't like that he has doomed this franchise to 10 years of bad, bad baseball.
Vinnie Rottino playing, Manny Acta fired. Yep, polish up that resume' Chris. You are on the street in days!
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Time to shut Zach McAllister down!!!!!
The Washington Nationals are making news by shutting down their young stud pitcher, Steven Strasburg in the middle of their first playoff run in, well, forever. That's right, they are in line to go the playoffs for the first time in their franchise history and they are shutting down maybe their best pitcher? Yes, they want to limit his innings coming back from Tommy John surgery.
So why am I telling you this?
The Indians have just lost Josh Tomlin. In 2010 Tomlin pitched 180 innings. The most he had pitched before that in a season is 145 innings. Flash forward to 2012 and Tomlin, pitching badly, goes down with Tommy John surgery.
Carlos Carrasco pitched 181 innings in 2009, the year the Indians got him in the Cliff Lee trade. The most he had ever pitched before that was 159 innings when the Phillies probably overused him two years before that in low A ball in as a 19 year old who had never pitched more than 83 innings!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Flash forward to 2011 and Carrasco had TJ surgery.
You could make the same case for Hector Rondon when he transitioned from rookie ball to Lake County in 2006. Ditto for Alexander Perez in 2009.
The Indians and other teams have had a philosophy where they don't want a starting pitcher's innings to increase by over a certain amount each year. They feel that puts extra stress on the pitcher's arm that, while it may not show up the next year, will show up in a few years in either worsening performance or in shoulder or elbow surgery.
So, here we are in the lost season of 2012. We need to speak about Zach McAllister.
The most innings McAllister has pitched previously in a season was in 2011 when he pitched 173 innings which was up from the 150 innings he pitched in 2010. At this point McAllister has pitched in 172 innings. He is likely to get 4 more starts in the 18 remaining games. That could push his numbers over 200 innings.
The question is, do we risk it? The answer is no. I think we shut him down after his next start, which is Wednesday, September 19th. That will give him a career high in innings but no an excessive increase over 2011 like the increase he had in 2011 compared to 2010. I think increasing his innings significantly for the second straight year could easily lead to a problem. Maybe not in 2013 but the risk would go up in 2014. If we are going to compete next year we need guys like McAllister to be injury-free and productive.
No sense burning out his arm this year. We have Gomez to backfill McAllister's spot in the rotation now that Huff is starting again. Time to shut McAllister down. I hope the Indians are listening!.
So why am I telling you this?
The Indians have just lost Josh Tomlin. In 2010 Tomlin pitched 180 innings. The most he had pitched before that in a season is 145 innings. Flash forward to 2012 and Tomlin, pitching badly, goes down with Tommy John surgery.
Carlos Carrasco pitched 181 innings in 2009, the year the Indians got him in the Cliff Lee trade. The most he had ever pitched before that was 159 innings when the Phillies probably overused him two years before that in low A ball in as a 19 year old who had never pitched more than 83 innings!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Flash forward to 2011 and Carrasco had TJ surgery.
You could make the same case for Hector Rondon when he transitioned from rookie ball to Lake County in 2006. Ditto for Alexander Perez in 2009.
The Indians and other teams have had a philosophy where they don't want a starting pitcher's innings to increase by over a certain amount each year. They feel that puts extra stress on the pitcher's arm that, while it may not show up the next year, will show up in a few years in either worsening performance or in shoulder or elbow surgery.
So, here we are in the lost season of 2012. We need to speak about Zach McAllister.
The most innings McAllister has pitched previously in a season was in 2011 when he pitched 173 innings which was up from the 150 innings he pitched in 2010. At this point McAllister has pitched in 172 innings. He is likely to get 4 more starts in the 18 remaining games. That could push his numbers over 200 innings.
The question is, do we risk it? The answer is no. I think we shut him down after his next start, which is Wednesday, September 19th. That will give him a career high in innings but no an excessive increase over 2011 like the increase he had in 2011 compared to 2010. I think increasing his innings significantly for the second straight year could easily lead to a problem. Maybe not in 2013 but the risk would go up in 2014. If we are going to compete next year we need guys like McAllister to be injury-free and productive.
No sense burning out his arm this year. We have Gomez to backfill McAllister's spot in the rotation now that Huff is starting again. Time to shut McAllister down. I hope the Indians are listening!.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Why is Brent Lillibridge still with this team?
He is pathetic.
Can someone please explain to me why Juan Diaz is not up here right now?
No one can seriously think that Lillibridge should be on this team next year. Not only is he bad but that would require that he occupy a roster spot all winter, something that for a small market team is unthinkable: expose another player to the Rule 5 draft to protect a AAAA guy who is a dime-a-dozen and can signed to a minor league deal any day.
While Diaz may not be completely ready, he is already on the 40 man roster and actually HAS a future in the majors. He should waive to Lillibridge on the way up as Lillibridge is on the way down.
C'mon, Antonnetti. The tryout is over and Lillibridge sucks. Dump him and bring up Diaz!
Can someone please explain to me why Juan Diaz is not up here right now?
No one can seriously think that Lillibridge should be on this team next year. Not only is he bad but that would require that he occupy a roster spot all winter, something that for a small market team is unthinkable: expose another player to the Rule 5 draft to protect a AAAA guy who is a dime-a-dozen and can signed to a minor league deal any day.
While Diaz may not be completely ready, he is already on the 40 man roster and actually HAS a future in the majors. He should waive to Lillibridge on the way up as Lillibridge is on the way down.
C'mon, Antonnetti. The tryout is over and Lillibridge sucks. Dump him and bring up Diaz!
Monday, September 10, 2012
The Phillies call up Darin Ruf. It makes you wonder.
The Phillies, like a lot of teams, have what are called organizational players.
The plain fact is that this is not tennis. You can't play the game by yourself. Baseball is a 25-man game (24 in some minor leagues). If you have 5 real prospects on your roster you are doing well. Who are the other 20 guys? They are organizational players, guys who probably have little chance of getting to the majors but who cling to that hope, working their way up to the ladder to AAA where they hope they can get that chance to play in the bigs. For some, like the legendary Moonlight Graham in "Field of Dreams", it is just to play at all in the big leagues, to fulfill a dream born in childhood. For others, it is to try to carve out a career as a big leaguer. Still, what drives a lot of these guys is the love of the game and the chance to play it at the highest level, for whatever their reason.
The Phillies just called up Darin Ruf. Ruf is a 26 year old in AA. Twenty-six year olds in AA are not really propsects. They especailly aren't prospects when they are drafted in the 20th round as college seniors out of Creighton Universtiy. The Darin Rufs of the world are organizational players.
Why do I care about the Phillies calling up Darin Ruf? Because this is the organization that the Indians should be. Charlie Manuel is all about the little guy, the guy who has never gotten a chance. When he was manager of the Indians in 2000-2, he ran across one of these organizational players, Chris Coste. The Indians sucked in 2002 but failed to give Coste, who was hitting over .300 for the second year in AAA, even a Moonlight Graham sniff of the majors.
Coste went on to get a WS ring and play in parts of 5 seasons in the majors with over 800 AB and a . .327/.416/.744 slash line.
Charlie Manuel knows that you give these organizational players chances MOSTLY because they have worked hard and deserve it. He gets that your organization makes a name for itself by giving its own a chance when that chance is deserved.
Let's look at the organizational guys the Indians have dissed since Coste with the ML record that year in parentheses after the year.
2012 (20+ games under .500) - Jared Goedert - two good seasons in AAA
2012 (20+ games under .500)- Tim Fedroff - the jury is still out on whether this guy will get his chance, but he should have had one this September and didn't get it. Except for base stealing, Fedroff has it all over Ezequiel Carrera who will probably have 300 big league plate appearances before Fedroff, born 4 months earlier than Carrera, ever gets his chance.
2011 (80-82) - Jerad Head - 17 AB was all the Indians could give this guy
2011 (80-82 - Beau Mills - Probably a reach but it was the guy's best year in the minors. We cut him the next spring. Why not give him a cup of coffee on the way out the door.
2010 (69-93) - Wes Hodges
2010 (69-93) - Jose Constanza
2010 (69-93) - Josh Rodriguez
2009 (65-97) - Jordan Brown - He actually got all of 87 AB the next year but none in 2009 after winning, in succession, the league batting crowns in A, AA and AAA. But no ABs in 2009 after hitting .336 at AAA.
There are a number of other examples, some of whom, like Coste, reached the majors once they left our organization (e.g. Jonathon van Every).
Then we have the very undeserved September callup of Nuiman Romero a number of years ago when other guys who performed much better never got called up, some of whom NEVER made it to the majors even though they deserved a callup more than Romero.
Add to those guys the prospects we have given away for virtually nothing: Brandon Phillips, Jeremy Guthrie, Willy Taveras, Luke Scott, Ryan Church, Macier Izturis, Cory Burns after giving them insufficient or NO chances even when they had sterling stats in the minors and you have a pattern of the Indians not giving their own real prospects a decent chance and not even giving their organizational soldiers who have performed a well-deserved 'cup of coffee'.
The problem is that, in those years we have had to endure the likes of Brent Lillibridge, Shelley Duncan, Chad Durbin, Aaron Cunningham, Travis Buck, Justin Germano and others, all when there were REAL prospects who could have gotten a chance.
We just aren't real good at giving our own prospects a decent chance...or even giving our producing organizational guys their afternoon in the sun.
As I have said before, this is an organization that is gaining the reputation of favoring AAAA guys over its own prospects and not giving its organizational guys their ML experience.
I am pretty sure prospects in the Phillies organization are much more positive about their chances of getting to the majors if they perform well than similar prospects in the Indians' organization.
When you are a small market team you can't be doing these things or you become the Kansas City Royals who, BTW, are ahead of us in the standings now with us playing Lillibridge, Hannahan and Kotchman and the rest of the AAAA guys we have been parading through here in recent years.
The plain fact is that this is not tennis. You can't play the game by yourself. Baseball is a 25-man game (24 in some minor leagues). If you have 5 real prospects on your roster you are doing well. Who are the other 20 guys? They are organizational players, guys who probably have little chance of getting to the majors but who cling to that hope, working their way up to the ladder to AAA where they hope they can get that chance to play in the bigs. For some, like the legendary Moonlight Graham in "Field of Dreams", it is just to play at all in the big leagues, to fulfill a dream born in childhood. For others, it is to try to carve out a career as a big leaguer. Still, what drives a lot of these guys is the love of the game and the chance to play it at the highest level, for whatever their reason.
The Phillies just called up Darin Ruf. Ruf is a 26 year old in AA. Twenty-six year olds in AA are not really propsects. They especailly aren't prospects when they are drafted in the 20th round as college seniors out of Creighton Universtiy. The Darin Rufs of the world are organizational players.
Why do I care about the Phillies calling up Darin Ruf? Because this is the organization that the Indians should be. Charlie Manuel is all about the little guy, the guy who has never gotten a chance. When he was manager of the Indians in 2000-2, he ran across one of these organizational players, Chris Coste. The Indians sucked in 2002 but failed to give Coste, who was hitting over .300 for the second year in AAA, even a Moonlight Graham sniff of the majors.
Coste went on to get a WS ring and play in parts of 5 seasons in the majors with over 800 AB and a . .327/.416/.744 slash line.
Charlie Manuel knows that you give these organizational players chances MOSTLY because they have worked hard and deserve it. He gets that your organization makes a name for itself by giving its own a chance when that chance is deserved.
Let's look at the organizational guys the Indians have dissed since Coste with the ML record that year in parentheses after the year.
2012 (20+ games under .500) - Jared Goedert - two good seasons in AAA
2012 (20+ games under .500)- Tim Fedroff - the jury is still out on whether this guy will get his chance, but he should have had one this September and didn't get it. Except for base stealing, Fedroff has it all over Ezequiel Carrera who will probably have 300 big league plate appearances before Fedroff, born 4 months earlier than Carrera, ever gets his chance.
2011 (80-82) - Jerad Head - 17 AB was all the Indians could give this guy
2011 (80-82 - Beau Mills - Probably a reach but it was the guy's best year in the minors. We cut him the next spring. Why not give him a cup of coffee on the way out the door.
2010 (69-93) - Wes Hodges
2010 (69-93) - Jose Constanza
2010 (69-93) - Josh Rodriguez
2009 (65-97) - Jordan Brown - He actually got all of 87 AB the next year but none in 2009 after winning, in succession, the league batting crowns in A, AA and AAA. But no ABs in 2009 after hitting .336 at AAA.
There are a number of other examples, some of whom, like Coste, reached the majors once they left our organization (e.g. Jonathon van Every).
Then we have the very undeserved September callup of Nuiman Romero a number of years ago when other guys who performed much better never got called up, some of whom NEVER made it to the majors even though they deserved a callup more than Romero.
Add to those guys the prospects we have given away for virtually nothing: Brandon Phillips, Jeremy Guthrie, Willy Taveras, Luke Scott, Ryan Church, Macier Izturis, Cory Burns after giving them insufficient or NO chances even when they had sterling stats in the minors and you have a pattern of the Indians not giving their own real prospects a decent chance and not even giving their organizational soldiers who have performed a well-deserved 'cup of coffee'.
The problem is that, in those years we have had to endure the likes of Brent Lillibridge, Shelley Duncan, Chad Durbin, Aaron Cunningham, Travis Buck, Justin Germano and others, all when there were REAL prospects who could have gotten a chance.
We just aren't real good at giving our own prospects a decent chance...or even giving our producing organizational guys their afternoon in the sun.
As I have said before, this is an organization that is gaining the reputation of favoring AAAA guys over its own prospects and not giving its organizational guys their ML experience.
I am pretty sure prospects in the Phillies organization are much more positive about their chances of getting to the majors if they perform well than similar prospects in the Indians' organization.
When you are a small market team you can't be doing these things or you become the Kansas City Royals who, BTW, are ahead of us in the standings now with us playing Lillibridge, Hannahan and Kotchman and the rest of the AAAA guys we have been parading through here in recent years.
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Chris Perez, you're an idiot!
You know, baseball players, hell, people in general, get to blow off steam once in a while.
However, when you're an idiot, I guess you just feel you can do it all the time.
Most of what Perez says is true: fans who won't pony up for tickets because they don't have the money but were able to pony up for Cavs tickets when they were hot. Yes, the economy is depressed. But surely there are 40,000 people that have enough disposable income (or 160,000 with one quarter of enough disposable income) to support this team.
What Perez says about making trades and signing free agents is correct. However, we made the Jimenez trade. We tried to sign Beltran and, truth be told, Willingham. They just got better offers, all things considered, elsewhere.
You know, if Chris Perez was still in St. Louis he would probably be setting up Jason Motte.
Chris Perez has made a lot of money here and his success here will make him a lot more in the future. That's one of the great things about a talent- and money-strapped club. Young guys sometimes (though not often in Cleveland) get the opportunity to showcase themselves. Such is the case for Perez. So he should shut the F--- up and continue to pitch well if he wants out of here.
Have his comments over this year been a premeditated attempt to get himself traded? Who knows. My guess is that he is just an idiot.
Let's hope we get a great offer for him. If we don't we keep him, stick a rag in his mouth, and send him out to pitch in the 9th next year. We are a much stronger team WITH Chris Perez and Vinnie Pestano than we are with just Pestano and some trash that some other team wants to dump on us in return for Perez.
This FO has shown no aptitude for turning situations like this into something positive. CC, Lee and others show me that trading Chris Perez at this point (unless we are overwhelmed by a team going for it next year) would be a stupid thing to do.
Not any more stupid than what usually comes out of this guy's mouth. But stupid, nonetheless.
So, FO, don't trade this guy on a knee-jerk. You don't do addition-by-subtraction if you don't even know how to do addition or substraction and the Indians' FO needs remedial 1st grade math, to be sure.
However, when you're an idiot, I guess you just feel you can do it all the time.
Most of what Perez says is true: fans who won't pony up for tickets because they don't have the money but were able to pony up for Cavs tickets when they were hot. Yes, the economy is depressed. But surely there are 40,000 people that have enough disposable income (or 160,000 with one quarter of enough disposable income) to support this team.
What Perez says about making trades and signing free agents is correct. However, we made the Jimenez trade. We tried to sign Beltran and, truth be told, Willingham. They just got better offers, all things considered, elsewhere.
You know, if Chris Perez was still in St. Louis he would probably be setting up Jason Motte.
Chris Perez has made a lot of money here and his success here will make him a lot more in the future. That's one of the great things about a talent- and money-strapped club. Young guys sometimes (though not often in Cleveland) get the opportunity to showcase themselves. Such is the case for Perez. So he should shut the F--- up and continue to pitch well if he wants out of here.
Have his comments over this year been a premeditated attempt to get himself traded? Who knows. My guess is that he is just an idiot.
Let's hope we get a great offer for him. If we don't we keep him, stick a rag in his mouth, and send him out to pitch in the 9th next year. We are a much stronger team WITH Chris Perez and Vinnie Pestano than we are with just Pestano and some trash that some other team wants to dump on us in return for Perez.
This FO has shown no aptitude for turning situations like this into something positive. CC, Lee and others show me that trading Chris Perez at this point (unless we are overwhelmed by a team going for it next year) would be a stupid thing to do.
Not any more stupid than what usually comes out of this guy's mouth. But stupid, nonetheless.
So, FO, don't trade this guy on a knee-jerk. You don't do addition-by-subtraction if you don't even know how to do addition or substraction and the Indians' FO needs remedial 1st grade math, to be sure.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Post-2012 Indians Top 125 Prospect List
Top prospect lists created at this time of year are at one time the most easy and most difficult to prepare. So many things change over the winter. Trades, releases, Rule 5 draft and performance in the AFL, Parallel League and Fall Instructs. All those things change the face of a prospect list. Still, below is my best list at the moment. Expect this list to change as gather more information on these players over the winter.
The standards for being on this list is 130 or less big league ABs, 50 innings pitched, or, for relief pitchers, 30 relief appearances. Assumptions made include that Cody Allen and Corey Kluber will not reach 30 appearances or 50 IP and that Russ Canzler will not reach 130 ABs. I have gone to 125 players although most of those guys below 50 are based on very little data.
The thing that is striking to me about this list is that our top prospects are SS, that we have many more question marks than I would like to see at this time and, finally, that there is so much upside to this list that it is umbelievable. Lots of guys with lots of intriguing tools who may not go anywhere or who may blossom into really good ML players. Ronny Rodriguez and Carlos Moncrief are two such guys. Intriguing on a Jonathon Van Every level. Lots of tools but with significant holes still in their games.
If forture is with us we could be looking at a great farm system that appears only to be marginal right now. However, the chances of that are slim. Still, as an Indians' fan that is probably the best you could hope for at this point.
Here goes:
The standards for being on this list is 130 or less big league ABs, 50 innings pitched, or, for relief pitchers, 30 relief appearances. Assumptions made include that Cody Allen and Corey Kluber will not reach 30 appearances or 50 IP and that Russ Canzler will not reach 130 ABs. I have gone to 125 players although most of those guys below 50 are based on very little data.
The thing that is striking to me about this list is that our top prospects are SS, that we have many more question marks than I would like to see at this time and, finally, that there is so much upside to this list that it is umbelievable. Lots of guys with lots of intriguing tools who may not go anywhere or who may blossom into really good ML players. Ronny Rodriguez and Carlos Moncrief are two such guys. Intriguing on a Jonathon Van Every level. Lots of tools but with significant holes still in their games.
If forture is with us we could be looking at a great farm system that appears only to be marginal right now. However, the chances of that are slim. Still, as an Indians' fan that is probably the best you could hope for at this point.
Here goes:
1. Francisco Lindor – SS
2. Dorsyss Paulino – SS
3. Tony Wolters – SS
4. Mitch Brown – RHSP
5. Cody Allen - RHRP
6. Chun Chen – 1B/C
7. Ronny Rodriguez – SS
8. Jesus Aguilar – 1B
9. Tyler Naquin - OF
10. Shawn Armstrong – RHRP
11. Giovanny Urshela – 3B
12. Scott Barnes – LHRP
13. Juan Diaz – SS
14. Giovanny Soto – RHSP
15. Dylan Baker – RHSP
16. LeVon Washington – OF
17. D’vonne McClure – OF
18. Luigi Rodriguez OF
19. Alex Lavisky – C
20. Hector Rondon – RHSP
21. Danny Salazar – RHSP
22. Cord Phelps – Utility
23. Tim Fedroff – OF
24. T.J. McFarland – LHSP
25. T.J. House – LHSP
26. Rob Bryson – RHRP
27. Chen Lee – RHRP
28. Cole Cook – RHRP
29. Nelson Rodriguez – C/1B
30. Alexander Perez – LHSP
31. Elvis Araujo – LHSP
32. Matt Packer - LHSP
33. Austin Adams – RHSP
34. Jose Ramirez – SS
35. Bryson Myles – OF
36. Cody Anderson – RHP
37. Roberto Perez – C
38. Robbie Aviles – RHSP
39. Carlos Moncrief – OF
40. Anthony Santander – OF
41. Corey Kluber – RHSP
42. Felix Sterling – RHP
43. Kieran Lovegrove – LHP
44. Joseph Colon - RHSP
45. Luis DeJesus - RHSP
46. Trey Haley - RHRP
47. Jake Sisco – RHSP
48. Caleb Hamrick - RHSP
49. Dillon Howard - RHSP
50. Josh McAdams – OF
51. Tyler Booth – OF
52. Jared Goedert – 3B
53. Jake Lowery – C
54. Charlie Valerio – C
55. Claudio Bautista - SS
56. Joe Wendle – 2B
57. Jacob Lee - RHRP
58. Alex Monsalve – C
59. Bryce Stowell – RHRP
60. Tyler Sturdevant – RHRP
61. Adam Abraham – 1B/3B
62. Tyler Holt – OF
63. Clayton Cook – RHSP
64. Matt Langwell – RHRP
65. Thomas Neal – OF
66. Russ Canzler - Utility
67. Michael Goodnight – RHSP
68. Preston Guilmet – RHRP
69. Vinnie Rottino - Utility
70. Enosil Tejada – RHRP
71. Jordan Smith – 3B/OF
72. Nick Weglarz – OF
73. Jorge Martinez – 2B
74. Bo Greenwell – OF
75. Jairo Kelly - SS
76. Jordan Henry – OF
77. Brett Brach – RHSP
78. Eric Berger – LHRP
79. Mike Rayl – RHSP
80. Shawn Morimando – LHSP
81. Anthony Gallas – OF
82. Kyle Blair – RHSP
83. Kyle Bellows – 3B
84. Eric Haase – C
85. Joshua Nervis – RHRP
86. Benny Suarez – LHRP
87. Daniel Jimenez – RHSP
88. Louis Head – RHRP
89. Juan Nivar - RHP
90. Luis Gomez – RHP
91. Anthony Vizcaya - RHP
92. Manny Carmona – RHRP
93. Odomar Valez – 2B
94. Victor Cabral – OF
95. Michael Depen - OF
96. Erik Gonzales – 2B
97. Bryan Price – RHRP
98. Paulo Espino – RHSP
99. Josh Martin – RHRP
100. Thomas White - RHRP
101. Jerrud Sabourin – 1B
102. Logan Vick – OF
103. Yhoxian Medina – 2B
104. Juan Romero – 3B
105. Jose Flores – RHRP
106. Todd Hankins – 2B
107. Grant Sides – RHRP
108. Ryan Merritt - RHSP
109. Robel Garcia – 3B
110. Anderson Polanco – RHP
111. Leonardo Castillo – 3B
112. Jeremie Tice – 1B
113. Mason Radeke – RHRP
114. Nick Pasquale – RHRP
115. Jeff Johnson – RHRP
116. Jordan Cooper – RHP
117. Wil Roberts – RHSP
118. Luis Morel – RHSP
119. Rafael Homblert – RHRP
120. Scott Peoples – RHRP
121. Cody Penny – RHRP
122. Luis Lugo – RHSP
123. Alexis Paredes – RHRP
124. Carlos Diaz – RHSP
125. Ramon Rodriguez - RHSP
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