Detroit has sold the farm for a decent 2 month rental pitcher and an average secondbaseman signed through 2013. Neither would be compensation-type free agents if they are not re-signed.
I would have loved to do that deal. Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante for Jacob Turner, Rob Brantley, Brian Flynn and an end of the second round draft choice. .
You have to wonder if Derek Lowe and Jason Kipnis would have gotten that done. Probably not because Lowe has been stinking it up lately but darn!
I know that is vintage 1970s/80s Indians, trade pitching for hitting then trade hitting back for pitching but darn!!
Kipnis is good and all and we have been waiting for a secondbaseman since Robbie Alomar left and gave away one of the best in baseball in Brandon Phillips but darn!!!
Still, all one has to do is remember the gut wrenching giveaways of CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee and the overpayment for Ubaldo Jimenez and, as I have said before, it makes you want to stand pat.
Still, there have to be a couple of Casey Blake-for-Carlos Santana trades out there right now we can capitalize on, aren't there?
But, we beat Detroit tonight and if we win one of the next two we will probably let the deadline pass without making a deal......I hope.
Go Tribe! Keep you hands in your pockets and don't answer the phone!
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Saturday, July 21, 2012
Sell...but only for the right price
We are 47-47, the Tigers are heating up, too many wildcard teams in front of us. Historically in every season but one Manny Acta's teams do worse in the second half than in the first half. We have no chance.
Time to pull the plug on the season.
If we can get good value for our veterans, trade them. There is no VETERAN player on this roster right now outside of Asdrubal Cabrera, Chirs Perez and Vinnie Pestano who isn't replaceable for a reasonable dollar in free agency this winter.
If we can't get good value we don't make a trade as we have almost every good player on this roster signed through next year.
But the championship part of the season ended tonight.
So sell 'em if you can. Hold 'em if you can't, but guys like Cunningham should be gone by game time tomorrow.
Fedroff up, Cunningham DFA'd. Righty/lefty thing be darned.
I'll have more comments on who else should be gone in a post tomorrow.
Time to pull the plug on the season.
If we can get good value for our veterans, trade them. There is no VETERAN player on this roster right now outside of Asdrubal Cabrera, Chirs Perez and Vinnie Pestano who isn't replaceable for a reasonable dollar in free agency this winter.
If we can't get good value we don't make a trade as we have almost every good player on this roster signed through next year.
But the championship part of the season ended tonight.
So sell 'em if you can. Hold 'em if you can't, but guys like Cunningham should be gone by game time tomorrow.
Fedroff up, Cunningham DFA'd. Righty/lefty thing be darned.
I'll have more comments on who else should be gone in a post tomorrow.
Friday, July 20, 2012
Who's going to blink first: 2012 Version
Dear Cleveland Indians,
It is now less than two weeks from the deadline. Time to pack it in.
Signed,
CIPerspective
Hey, I AM a lifelong Indians' fan. I want them to win. But here's the deal:
In the AL there are EIGHT teams within 3.5 games of the two AL Wild Card spots. The Indians now stand 7th. Yeah, they are only 1.5 games back but the odds are extremely long that they can pass 6 of theose teams to move into a WC spot and that isn't even counting the teams who are in the lead in the three AL divisions. So, really, there are ELEVEN teams in contention in the AL. Can the Indians play better than the vast majority of them, most of whom will likely get an injection of ML talent at the trading deadline? I say the odds are very low of everything falling into place, especially for a small market team with a bad farm system like the Indians have..
So, why try to compete?
Look, this is fool's gold time of the year. Teams are thinking they have a chance to make the playoffs by adding a little something extra at this time of year and that they have to make the playoff push this year because:
(a) you aren't in the position to make the playoffs every year
(b) once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen (see Cardinals, St. Louis - 2011 version)
So, along the lines of the phrase, there's a sucker born every minute, let's be the shark and not the sharkfood.
Let's be a seller.
We have lots of pieces to sell: Shin-Soo Choo. Travis Hafner, Shelly Duncan, Joe Smith, Tonny Sipp, Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tony Sipp. We could also try to trade Jack Hannahan and Casey Kotchman and even Esmil Rogers, although I can't imagine there will be takers for those latter guys.
This would lead to a deep rebuild. especially as we should expect low A, high A, AA league prospects back to match our current development path that contains lots of prospects at levels from low A to rookie ball.
So, Indians, be the first seller on your block. With 11 of the AL teams and 8 NL teams still well in the race, there are currently more potential buyers (19) than sellers (11) with many of the sellers being so bad that what they are selling the contending teams are apparently not buying, at least yet.
So let's be the first on our block. Remember the Bartolo Colon trade? It beat the deadline trade rush. Let's look for one of them, or maybe two.
So, Indians, put on your e-Bay hats and let's have a firesale. The time to strike is now...before all the other wild-card contenders find that they only a 25% or smaller chance of making the playoffs.
If we sell from this position of strength we will be at a HUGE advantage over other teams who want to be sellers. Plus, for the first time, we can get draft picks back in addition to or instead of players. My guess is that the newly-tradeable draft picks from the competitive balance lottery will be underpriced for the first couple of years as teams will consider these picks less valuable than prospects since you actually have to draft and spend money to even get a prospect out of a trade. I mean, how can a draft pick be more valuable than a prospect? Or, at least that's the thinking I predict baseball people will have on these tradeable picks.
Plus, how much do you really think the sell now path would hurt interest in the Indians? With a contending team we are still LAST in attendance and our TV viewership is off by 24%. No one cares, no one is looking but us die hard fans.
Sell, Indians, sell. Get great value and let's start the rebuild. Any other path would lack the long-term vision you need if you are a small market team with a bad farm system with a fan base that doesn't care right now.
It is now less than two weeks from the deadline. Time to pack it in.
Signed,
CIPerspective
Hey, I AM a lifelong Indians' fan. I want them to win. But here's the deal:
In the AL there are EIGHT teams within 3.5 games of the two AL Wild Card spots. The Indians now stand 7th. Yeah, they are only 1.5 games back but the odds are extremely long that they can pass 6 of theose teams to move into a WC spot and that isn't even counting the teams who are in the lead in the three AL divisions. So, really, there are ELEVEN teams in contention in the AL. Can the Indians play better than the vast majority of them, most of whom will likely get an injection of ML talent at the trading deadline? I say the odds are very low of everything falling into place, especially for a small market team with a bad farm system like the Indians have..
So, why try to compete?
Look, this is fool's gold time of the year. Teams are thinking they have a chance to make the playoffs by adding a little something extra at this time of year and that they have to make the playoff push this year because:
(a) you aren't in the position to make the playoffs every year
(b) once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen (see Cardinals, St. Louis - 2011 version)
So, along the lines of the phrase, there's a sucker born every minute, let's be the shark and not the sharkfood.
Let's be a seller.
We have lots of pieces to sell: Shin-Soo Choo. Travis Hafner, Shelly Duncan, Joe Smith, Tonny Sipp, Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tony Sipp. We could also try to trade Jack Hannahan and Casey Kotchman and even Esmil Rogers, although I can't imagine there will be takers for those latter guys.
This would lead to a deep rebuild. especially as we should expect low A, high A, AA league prospects back to match our current development path that contains lots of prospects at levels from low A to rookie ball.
So, Indians, be the first seller on your block. With 11 of the AL teams and 8 NL teams still well in the race, there are currently more potential buyers (19) than sellers (11) with many of the sellers being so bad that what they are selling the contending teams are apparently not buying, at least yet.
So let's be the first on our block. Remember the Bartolo Colon trade? It beat the deadline trade rush. Let's look for one of them, or maybe two.
So, Indians, put on your e-Bay hats and let's have a firesale. The time to strike is now...before all the other wild-card contenders find that they only a 25% or smaller chance of making the playoffs.
If we sell from this position of strength we will be at a HUGE advantage over other teams who want to be sellers. Plus, for the first time, we can get draft picks back in addition to or instead of players. My guess is that the newly-tradeable draft picks from the competitive balance lottery will be underpriced for the first couple of years as teams will consider these picks less valuable than prospects since you actually have to draft and spend money to even get a prospect out of a trade. I mean, how can a draft pick be more valuable than a prospect? Or, at least that's the thinking I predict baseball people will have on these tradeable picks.
Plus, how much do you really think the sell now path would hurt interest in the Indians? With a contending team we are still LAST in attendance and our TV viewership is off by 24%. No one cares, no one is looking but us die hard fans.
Sell, Indians, sell. Get great value and let's start the rebuild. Any other path would lack the long-term vision you need if you are a small market team with a bad farm system with a fan base that doesn't care right now.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
That's one way to get an extra draft pick - Competitive balance lottery results
The first competitive balance lottery was held yesterday (although MLB's website had it as being held on Monday, July 16th). Here are the results
Picks after the end of the supplemental first round (i.e., right before the second round begins):
- Royals
- Pirates
- Diamondbacks
- Orioles
- Reds
- Marlins
- Padres
- Indians
- Rockies
- Athletics
- Brewers
- Tigers
The ability to get a pick was weighted by a number of things that I don't completely understand but one of those was winning pct. in 2011.
The order of the winning pct. (along with where the picks ended up in parentheses) was:
1. Baltimore (4)
2. KC (1)
3. SD (7)
4. Miami (6)
5. Pittsburgh (2)
6. Colorado (9)
7. Oakland (10)
8. CInnicnnati (5)
9. Cleveland (8)
10. St. Louis (no pick)
11. Tampa (no pick)
12. Arizona (3)
13. Detroit (12)
14. Milwaukee (11)
So, the Indians ended up about where they should based on their record last year. In fact, most teams ended up within 3 places of where they finished, record-wise, last year except for Arizona and, since we don't know how other factors like revenue ranking and small market size factored in, most teams may have ended up closer to where their weighted ranking might have put them.
Hey, an extra pick is an extra pick, even if, like the Indians, it will probably close to the 75th pick in the draft next year.
Monday, July 16, 2012
Aaron Cunningham - the poster child for the Indians FO
The phrase 'poster child' has evolved. From it's beginnings where it was used, as it often is today, as a symbol of some medical or poverty condition designed to evoke empathy and the desire to help the child in the picture and children like them, it has now become something else. It has come to mean 'a person who is a prominent example or representative of something'. Here are some recent examples pulled off the internet
"Welker latest poster child of 'Patriot Way'" (ESPN blog)
"If you want to elect the poster child for outsourcing, elect Mitt Romney" (President Obama)
"Elizabeth Haselback, Poster Child for the GOP's Problems" (Yahoo News)
"Obama is the poster child for the arrogance of government" (Mitt Romney)
"Kotchman should be the poster child butt-ugly swing" (MLB blog)
And the list goes on and on.
But I would like to add a new one to the list:
"Aaron Cunningham, the poster child for the Indians Front Office"
Mr. Cunningham represents all the ineptitude of the Indians FO that has it's seeds in the '60s and '70s, went into hibernation in the '90s and now has resurfaced under the Chris Antonnetti front office.
You couldn't ask for a better example. When we traded for Mr. Cunningham last winter, you could have heard a pin drop. Well, all except for here and a few other places where you might have heard "What the F___?!?!?!" You see, Mr. Cunningham represented the prototypical AAAA player. He had no tangible major league ability that you couldn't get from about 20 minor league free agent-caliber outfielders AND he was out of options meaning, even for the lowly San Diego Padres, he was soon to be a AAAA player in the flesh as no way would he have entered the season on a rebuilding Padres' team. You don't rebuild with Aaron Cunningham, you rebuild IN SPITE of Aaron Cunningham.
So the Indians traded Cory Burns for Cunningham and had to designate Josh Judy to make room for Cunningham on the 40 man roster. Judy was picked up off waivers by Cincinnati and, with options remaining, was pitching for the Louisville Bats in AAA. He was mediocre for most of the season but is now pitching poorly. Burns has been good for the Tucson AAA team until recently, when he has been lights out.
Why am I thinking about this today? Well the Indians released Trevor Crowe today. The switch-hitting Trevor Crowe. Crowe has a .245 career ML average, 3 HR in 653 ML ABs, 29 SB and .625 OPS. Cunningham has a .222 ML average with 7 HR in 445 AB and has 4 stolen bases and a .637 OPS. Cunningham, counting this season, has hit under .200 in three of his five ML seasons. Crowe has never hit under .200 in any of his 3 ML seasons. You may think Trevor Crowe is trash but, even if that were true, he's our trash and didn't cost us any players.
The problem I have with the Cunningham situation is that Trevor Crowe and Ezequiel Carrera were already guys in the Indians minor league system with major league experience in center field and minor league experience at all three OF positions at the time we traded for Cunningham. We also had Tim Fedroff at AA if neither Carrera or Crowe worked out at that meaningless position of 4th outfielder/25th man on the roster.
So, by putting Crowe on the roster and substituting Carrera for him if Crowe got hurt (which he did), we had more than enough coverage for our ML roster in extra outfielders with Fedroff as the minor league insurance. Add Chad Huffman and Ryan Spillboroughs to Fedroff and we had minor league coverage, as well. Heck, had we waited two weeks San Diego would have probably released Cunningham and we could have had him as a minor league FA, too.
But nooooooooooo. We had to trade for Cunningham which has now cost us two relief prospects and a 4th outfielder/insurance outfielder who we drafted and developed..
Admittedly, there was not enough playing time at Columbus for Crowe once we brought in 32-year old Vinny Rotino to AAA. With AAAA guys Chad Huffman and Rotino, what chance was there for Crowe to play considering we also had Fedroff and Carrera. So the answer to this excess: no, it's not to cut Cunningham, Rottino or Huffman. No, instead, let's cut our own guy who had been hitting well (.320) early in the season at Columbus before going on the DL for two months and coming back with a 3-27 rust-ridden stint in Columbus after the injury that brought his average down to a pedestrian .250 level. Of course, this gave the FO the out to dump Crowe. I mean, who would ever grouse over releasing a .250 AAA outfielder?
Well, I will, but only because of Cunningham. We have now lost Burns, Judy and Crowe in the name of keeping Cunningham on this roster.
Considering the disasters of the CC, Cliff Lee and Ubaldo Jimenez trades, and the plethora of AAAA type players we have had to endure, Cunningham fits right in. Trading for a guy who was pathetic before he got here and is JUST as pathetic now and in exactly the same ways he previously was, is really looking stupid. He is the ZERO tool guy. He can't steal, he can't hit for average, he can't hit for power, his defense is mediocre and his arm is mediocre.
Cunningham is the poster child for the ineptness of the Indians' FO. Should we get rid of him soon, we have depth at that 'position'. Kevin Slowey, who cost us a good prospect in Zach Putnam and a chunk of money, comes to mind as does almost every one of the pathetic group of AAAA players that have paraded through Cleveland in the last 4 years while guys like Zach Putnam, Josh Judy and others have been traded, released or lost on waivers, mostly after being given little or no opportunity to establish themselves in the majors, even in losing or mediocre seasons.
For those of you who think the picture is all milk and cookies, look at it this way. If Putnam, Judy, Crowe and some of the other guys we have let go for nothing were here, they might have at least been enticements if we wanted to make a small deadline trade. Now, we don't have them and are likely to lose other prospects as Antonnetti clearly doesn't value any but the very top line prospects and is willing to trade them for trash. But you know the garage sale warrior's motto: one man's trash is another man's...well...trash.
Hey, in the big scheme of things losing Trevor Crowe means little. But as long as Aaron Cunningham is on this roster and stinking it up like he has for the vast majority of his ML career, as long as the Indians' FO continues to make pathetically, comically, frustratingly strange and stupid moves, Aaron Cunningham will be my poster child for the Indians front office. Mr. Antonnetti, better get the printing presses ready. Let's crank out those commenorative Aaron Cunningham posters which we can give out on the day the Indians are mathematically eliminated this year. Who better to be the poster child for the Indians' mathematical elimination than Mr. Ineptitude himself: Aaron Cunningham?
"Welker latest poster child of 'Patriot Way'" (ESPN blog)
"If you want to elect the poster child for outsourcing, elect Mitt Romney" (President Obama)
"Elizabeth Haselback, Poster Child for the GOP's Problems" (Yahoo News)
"Obama is the poster child for the arrogance of government" (Mitt Romney)
"Kotchman should be the poster child butt-ugly swing" (MLB blog)
And the list goes on and on.
But I would like to add a new one to the list:
"Aaron Cunningham, the poster child for the Indians Front Office"
Mr. Cunningham represents all the ineptitude of the Indians FO that has it's seeds in the '60s and '70s, went into hibernation in the '90s and now has resurfaced under the Chris Antonnetti front office.
You couldn't ask for a better example. When we traded for Mr. Cunningham last winter, you could have heard a pin drop. Well, all except for here and a few other places where you might have heard "What the F___?!?!?!" You see, Mr. Cunningham represented the prototypical AAAA player. He had no tangible major league ability that you couldn't get from about 20 minor league free agent-caliber outfielders AND he was out of options meaning, even for the lowly San Diego Padres, he was soon to be a AAAA player in the flesh as no way would he have entered the season on a rebuilding Padres' team. You don't rebuild with Aaron Cunningham, you rebuild IN SPITE of Aaron Cunningham.
So the Indians traded Cory Burns for Cunningham and had to designate Josh Judy to make room for Cunningham on the 40 man roster. Judy was picked up off waivers by Cincinnati and, with options remaining, was pitching for the Louisville Bats in AAA. He was mediocre for most of the season but is now pitching poorly. Burns has been good for the Tucson AAA team until recently, when he has been lights out.
Why am I thinking about this today? Well the Indians released Trevor Crowe today. The switch-hitting Trevor Crowe. Crowe has a .245 career ML average, 3 HR in 653 ML ABs, 29 SB and .625 OPS. Cunningham has a .222 ML average with 7 HR in 445 AB and has 4 stolen bases and a .637 OPS. Cunningham, counting this season, has hit under .200 in three of his five ML seasons. Crowe has never hit under .200 in any of his 3 ML seasons. You may think Trevor Crowe is trash but, even if that were true, he's our trash and didn't cost us any players.
The problem I have with the Cunningham situation is that Trevor Crowe and Ezequiel Carrera were already guys in the Indians minor league system with major league experience in center field and minor league experience at all three OF positions at the time we traded for Cunningham. We also had Tim Fedroff at AA if neither Carrera or Crowe worked out at that meaningless position of 4th outfielder/25th man on the roster.
So, by putting Crowe on the roster and substituting Carrera for him if Crowe got hurt (which he did), we had more than enough coverage for our ML roster in extra outfielders with Fedroff as the minor league insurance. Add Chad Huffman and Ryan Spillboroughs to Fedroff and we had minor league coverage, as well. Heck, had we waited two weeks San Diego would have probably released Cunningham and we could have had him as a minor league FA, too.
But nooooooooooo. We had to trade for Cunningham which has now cost us two relief prospects and a 4th outfielder/insurance outfielder who we drafted and developed..
Admittedly, there was not enough playing time at Columbus for Crowe once we brought in 32-year old Vinny Rotino to AAA. With AAAA guys Chad Huffman and Rotino, what chance was there for Crowe to play considering we also had Fedroff and Carrera. So the answer to this excess: no, it's not to cut Cunningham, Rottino or Huffman. No, instead, let's cut our own guy who had been hitting well (.320) early in the season at Columbus before going on the DL for two months and coming back with a 3-27 rust-ridden stint in Columbus after the injury that brought his average down to a pedestrian .250 level. Of course, this gave the FO the out to dump Crowe. I mean, who would ever grouse over releasing a .250 AAA outfielder?
Well, I will, but only because of Cunningham. We have now lost Burns, Judy and Crowe in the name of keeping Cunningham on this roster.
Considering the disasters of the CC, Cliff Lee and Ubaldo Jimenez trades, and the plethora of AAAA type players we have had to endure, Cunningham fits right in. Trading for a guy who was pathetic before he got here and is JUST as pathetic now and in exactly the same ways he previously was, is really looking stupid. He is the ZERO tool guy. He can't steal, he can't hit for average, he can't hit for power, his defense is mediocre and his arm is mediocre.
Cunningham is the poster child for the ineptness of the Indians' FO. Should we get rid of him soon, we have depth at that 'position'. Kevin Slowey, who cost us a good prospect in Zach Putnam and a chunk of money, comes to mind as does almost every one of the pathetic group of AAAA players that have paraded through Cleveland in the last 4 years while guys like Zach Putnam, Josh Judy and others have been traded, released or lost on waivers, mostly after being given little or no opportunity to establish themselves in the majors, even in losing or mediocre seasons.
For those of you who think the picture is all milk and cookies, look at it this way. If Putnam, Judy, Crowe and some of the other guys we have let go for nothing were here, they might have at least been enticements if we wanted to make a small deadline trade. Now, we don't have them and are likely to lose other prospects as Antonnetti clearly doesn't value any but the very top line prospects and is willing to trade them for trash. But you know the garage sale warrior's motto: one man's trash is another man's...well...trash.
Hey, in the big scheme of things losing Trevor Crowe means little. But as long as Aaron Cunningham is on this roster and stinking it up like he has for the vast majority of his ML career, as long as the Indians' FO continues to make pathetically, comically, frustratingly strange and stupid moves, Aaron Cunningham will be my poster child for the Indians front office. Mr. Antonnetti, better get the printing presses ready. Let's crank out those commenorative Aaron Cunningham posters which we can give out on the day the Indians are mathematically eliminated this year. Who better to be the poster child for the Indians' mathematical elimination than Mr. Ineptitude himself: Aaron Cunningham?
Sunday, July 15, 2012
2012 MLB Draft Analysis - Who had the best drafts
Who had the best draft this year? Well, that's a tough question because the playing field is always unlevel due to teams losing and gaining extra picks near the top of the draft due to free agent compensation. So I did a semi-scientific analysis. Scientific in that I collected the data, subjective in that I analyzed the data with my gut as well as my head. Many people will do analyses of who had the best drafts. Here's mine.
1. No team spent more than 5% over their draft budget meaning no team loses a first round pick next year and there will be no supplementatl draft in which those forfeited picks are lotteried off.
2. Ten of the thirty teams exceeded their draft budgets with Toronto, overage plus 75% tax, leading the way by exceeding their budget by $770,000.
3. There were a number of compensation picks created starting with Pittsburgh getting the #9 pick next year for failing to sign Mark Appel. In case you are wondering, I think, even under the new CBA, Appel would have to allow the Pirates to re-draft him in 2013.
In terms of who had the best drafts, I looked at a number of things including draft slot, number of top prospects signed, draft overages, if they existed, all of which are captured in the table below. From that data here are the teams who I think had the top drafts this year::
1. Oakland
2. Minnesota
3. San Diego
4. St. Louis
5. Toronto
6. Cincinnati
7. Cleveland
Note that 2 teams had less than 40 picks after losing top draft picks for signing free agents (LA Angels (38) and Detroit (39)), 9 teams (including the Indians) had zero extra picks, 8 teams had one extra pick, 5 teams had 2 extra picks and 6 teams had 3 extra picks. It is really difficult to rate how well a team did when it had fewer picks than another team. So, to level the playing field, based on the number of extra picks teams had, here are the teams that had the best drafts.
3 extra picks: Oakland/Minnesota (tie)
2 extra picks: Milwaukee
1 extra pick: Houston/Cincinnati (tie)
0 extra picks: Cleveland
OK, if you want the raw numbers, here they are:
1. No team spent more than 5% over their draft budget meaning no team loses a first round pick next year and there will be no supplementatl draft in which those forfeited picks are lotteried off.
2. Ten of the thirty teams exceeded their draft budgets with Toronto, overage plus 75% tax, leading the way by exceeding their budget by $770,000.
3. There were a number of compensation picks created starting with Pittsburgh getting the #9 pick next year for failing to sign Mark Appel. In case you are wondering, I think, even under the new CBA, Appel would have to allow the Pirates to re-draft him in 2013.
In terms of who had the best drafts, I looked at a number of things including draft slot, number of top prospects signed, draft overages, if they existed, all of which are captured in the table below. From that data here are the teams who I think had the top drafts this year::
1. Oakland
2. Minnesota
3. San Diego
4. St. Louis
5. Toronto
6. Cincinnati
7. Cleveland
Note that 2 teams had less than 40 picks after losing top draft picks for signing free agents (LA Angels (38) and Detroit (39)), 9 teams (including the Indians) had zero extra picks, 8 teams had one extra pick, 5 teams had 2 extra picks and 6 teams had 3 extra picks. It is really difficult to rate how well a team did when it had fewer picks than another team. So, to level the playing field, based on the number of extra picks teams had, here are the teams that had the best drafts.
3 extra picks: Oakland/Minnesota (tie)
2 extra picks: Milwaukee
1 extra pick: Houston/Cincinnati (tie)
0 extra picks: Cleveland
OK, if you want the raw numbers, here they are:
| Signed/Drafted | ||||||||
| Team | Slot | Picks Signed | BA Top 100 | BA 100-200 | Extra Picks | Spent vs Budget | Tax | Total Overage (Excess plus tax) |
| Houston | 1 | 30 | 4/6 | 2/3 | 1 | 208,900 | 156,675 | 365,575 |
| Minnesota | 2 | 26 | 6/6 | 2/4 | 3 | -298,500 | 0 | 0 |
| Seattle | 3 | 32 | 2/3 | 4/4 | 1 | 36,600 | 27,400 | 64,000 |
| Baltimore | 4 | 29 | 2/3 | 3/4 | 0 | -200 | 0 | 0 |
| Kansas City | 5 | 31 | 1/1 | 2/3 | 0 | 148,000 | 37,000 | 185,000 |
| Chicago Cubs | 6 | 29 | 3/3 | 2/3 | 1 | 373,800 | 280,350 | 654,150 |
| San Diego | 7 | 40 | 5/5 | 2/2 | 3 | -90,100 | 0 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh | 8 | 20 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 1 | -92,600 | 0 | 0 |
| Miami | 9 | 30 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0 | -74,700 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado | 10 | 34 | 3/3 | 3/5 | 2 | -221,600 | 0 | 0 |
| Oakland | 11 | 33 | 5/5 | 4/4 | 3 | -144,200 | 0 | 0 |
| New York Mets | 12 | 21 | 3/3 | 2/4 | 2 | -185,600 | 0 | 0 |
| Chicago WS | 13 | 32 | 2/2 | 6/6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cincinnati | 14 | 30 | 4/4 | 3/3 | 1 | -92,400 | 0 | 0 |
| Cleveland | 15 | 26 | 4/4 | 2/5 | 0 | -195,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Washington | 16 | 29 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 0 | 112,300 | 87,100 | 199,400 |
| Toronto | 17 | 32 | 6/6 | 1/2 | 3 | $441,000 | 330,000 | 770,000 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 18 | 33 | 3/3 | 4/4 | 1 | 98,500 | 73,875 | 172,375 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 19 | 36 | 1/1 | 3/3 | -2 | -46,900 | 0 | 0 |
| San Francisco | 20 | 32 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 0 | 54,100 | 40,575 | 94,675 |
| Atlanta | 21 | 29 | 2/2 | 1/3 | 0 | -23,800 | 0 | 0 |
| St. Louis | 22 | 36 | 5/6 | 2/2 | 3 | 312,890 | 234,667 | 547,557 |
| Boston | 23 | 25 | 4/4 | 2/4 | 2 | 257,000 | 196,000 | 453,000 |
| Tampa Bay | 24 | 37 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0 | -49,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona | 25 | 34 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0 | -113,500 | 0 | 0 |
| Detroit | 26 | 33 | 0/0 | 2/3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milwaukee | 27 | 30 | 4/4 | 3/4 | 2 | -5,600 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas | 28 | 31 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 3 | -83,800 | 0 | 0 |
| New York Yanks | 29 | 26 | 2/2 | 2/3 | 1 | -406,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Philadelphia | 30 | 24 | 1/2 | 2/3 | 2 | -218,100 | 0 | 0 |
Mock Draft Updates - The signing is done. Now it's time to play the games
OK, no two people ever agree on how to conduct a baseball draft so I like to put my ring in the hat and see if I am better than the Indians. Every year I conduct what are called a "shadow" draft, where, right after the draft, I pick my players as if I was running the Indians draft board. I do this based on available players at the time each Indians' pick rolls around. I have examined my 2008 shadow draft last June to see where I was and in June I posted my shadow drafts with posts Shadow Draft Version 1 where I took a different path entirely from the Indians and Shadow Draft Version 2 where I took the same path as the Indians but just tweeked a couple of picks.
Now that the signing period is over I wanted to examine my picks vs the Indians based on who signed and whether my shadow drafts came in under budget or not, based on the guys I picked who signed. In the chart below I have inputted best information on bonuses and the chart represents just the underages and overages for slot for rounds after round 10 with the total budget at the bottom.
Highlights of my strategy (Version 1) is that I signed Ty Buttrey, Sam Stafford, Michael Roth and Jose Mesa Jr. I wound up signing SIXTEEN Baseball America top 500 guys and still finished under budget. In my tweek of the Indians draft (Version 2), I subsituted Victor Roache for Tyler Naquin as the Indians are short on power. I also signed Stafford and Roth, signed 13 BA top 500 guys and finished under budget, not surprising as this draft mirrored pretty much the Indians draft. Compare this to the Indians strategy where they signed 13 BA top 500 guys and, as we know, finished under budget.
Time will tell who had the better draft, me or the Indians, but here are both of my mock drafts for posterity. Note that I prefer Version 1 as that is my strategy but I still think Version 2 will turn out better than the Indians. Remember, in the lists below only the overage and underage vs slot is listed for rounds after round 10. As in all other lists like this, the guys in bold are the guys who actually signed
Now that the signing period is over I wanted to examine my picks vs the Indians based on who signed and whether my shadow drafts came in under budget or not, based on the guys I picked who signed. In the chart below I have inputted best information on bonuses and the chart represents just the underages and overages for slot for rounds after round 10 with the total budget at the bottom.
Highlights of my strategy (Version 1) is that I signed Ty Buttrey, Sam Stafford, Michael Roth and Jose Mesa Jr. I wound up signing SIXTEEN Baseball America top 500 guys and still finished under budget. In my tweek of the Indians draft (Version 2), I subsituted Victor Roache for Tyler Naquin as the Indians are short on power. I also signed Stafford and Roth, signed 13 BA top 500 guys and finished under budget, not surprising as this draft mirrored pretty much the Indians draft. Compare this to the Indians strategy where they signed 13 BA top 500 guys and, as we know, finished under budget.
Time will tell who had the better draft, me or the Indians, but here are both of my mock drafts for posterity. Note that I prefer Version 1 as that is my strategy but I still think Version 2 will turn out better than the Indians. Remember, in the lists below only the overage and underage vs slot is listed for rounds after round 10. As in all other lists like this, the guys in bold are the guys who actually signed
| Version 2 | Version 1 | |||
| 1. Victor Roache | $1,600,000 | 1. Ty Hensley | $1,200,000 | |
| 2. Mitch Brown | $800,000 | 2. Brett Adam Walker | $490,400 | |
| 3. Kieran Lovegrove | $400,000 | 3. Mac Williamson | $390,000 | |
| 4. D'Vonne McClure | $750,000 | 4. Ty Buttrey | $1,300,000 | |
| 5. Dylan Baker | $200,000 | 5. Robert Benicasa | $145,300 | |
| 6. Michael Roth | $70,000 | 6. Beau Amaral | $146,000 | |
| 7. Josh McAdams | $250,000 | 7. Kris Hall | $137,200 | |
| 8. Taylor Dugas | $70,000 | 8. Michael Roth | $70,000 | |
| 9. Jacob Lee | $5,000 | 9. Jacob Lee | $5,000 | |
| 10. Josh Martin | $4,500 | 10. Kevin Brady | $4,500 | |
| 11. Logan Vick | $25,000 | 11. Logan Vick | $25,000 | |
| 12. Jeremy Lucas | $0 | 12. Jeremy Lucas | $0 | |
| 13. Sam Stafford | $50,000 | 13. Sam Stafford | $50,000 | |
| 14. Matt Reckling | $0 | 14. Andrew Calica | $0 | |
| 15. Nelson Rodriguez | $0 | 15. Ronnie Richardson | $90,000 | |
| 16. Cody Penny | 0 | 16. Cody Penny | 0 | |
| 17. Andrew Calica | $0 | 17. Louis Head | 0 | |
| 18. Louis Head | $0 | 18. Jeremy Schaffer | 0 | |
| 19. Colyn O'Connell | $0 | 19. Colyn O'Connell | 0 | |
| 20. Nick Pasquale | 0 | 20. Nick Pasquale | 0 | |
| 21. Joe Sever | 0 | 21. Joe Sever | 0 | |
| 22. Jim Stokes | 0 | 22. Patrick Blair | 0 | |
| 23. Richard Stock | 0 | 23. Richard Stock | 0 | |
| 24. Walker White | 0 | 24. Jose Mesa Jr. | 150,000 | |
| 25. Cameron Cox | 0 | 25. Cameron Cox | 0 | |
| 26. Justin Garza | 0 | 26. Jimmy Rider | 0 | |
| 27. Ray Castillo | 0 | 27. Justin Gonzalez | 0 | |
| 28. Josh Pigg | 0 | 28. Josh Pigg | 0 | |
| 29. Randall Fant | 0 | 29. Randall Fant | 0 | |
| 30. Josh Lester | 0 | 30. Josh Lester | 0 | |
| 31. Daniel Holst | 0 | 31. Andrew Potter | 0 | |
| 32. Paul Hendrix | 0 | 32. Paul Hendrix | 0 | |
| 33. Corey Raley | 0 | 33. Corey Raley | 0 | |
| 34. Matt Fultz | 0 | 34. Pedro Pizzaro | 0 | |
| 35. Nick Hamilton | 0 | 35. Nick Hamilton | 0 | |
| 36. Benny Suarez | 0 | 36. Benny Suarez | 0 | |
| 37. Jacob Morris | 0 | 37. Adam Ford | 0 | |
| 38. Joshua Nervis | 0 | 38. Joshua Nervis | 0 | |
| 39. D.J. Brown | 0 | 39. D.J. Brown | 0 | |
| 40. Anthony Hawkins | $0 | 40. Anthony Hawkins | 0 | |
| Totals | $4,224,500.00 | Totals | $4,203,400.00 | |
| Budget | $4,582,900.00 |
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