As an Indians' fan you would have a hard time being happier right now. 25-20, coming off taking 3 of 4 (and 3 in a row after a tough loss in the first game of the series) on the road against the White Sox and going 4-3 on their road trip through TWO first place Sox-wearing teams. Here are some things to think about as we fire up the grills this weekend.
1. A little factoid - Last year if Corey Kluber had gone 16-9 instead of 9-16 the Indians would have made the playoffs. Now I know that is a big if but Kluber has hit his stride. Will it be like 2014 where that continues or like 2015 where he is great one day and mediocre to terrible the next.
2. The Indians are starting to get production up and down the order. That being said, 6 of the 9 guys had hits yesterday. Guess who the 3 were that weren't? Rajai Davis, Marlon Byrd and Juan Uribe. It really hurts that Giovanny Urshela got hurt and that Bradley Zimmer is scuffling and, although it isn't a big thing to me when the guy is batting 9th, that Tyler Naquin gave the Indians the opportunity to send him out by not drawing a few more walks. Imagine what the Indians would be like now if Byrd, Davis and Uribe were all hitting .260. Only .260, mind you. While other guys have known chinks in their armor that we hoped they would fix (see Yan Gomes, for example), our veteran free agent signees just flat out stink...which if undoubtedly why Cleveland got them, because other teams saw they were not going to be helpful to a contender, at least on the field.
3. And we are winning without Carlos Carrasco, due largely to Josh Tomlin stepping up big. I think Mike Clevinger needs more seasoning and his psyche was not helped by being left in his first start until he lost as 4 run lead in the 6th. Cody Anderson had a good game on Monday to start this streak. I hope he has found himself and becomes the solid #4 many of us thought he was a lead pipe cinch to be when this season started. If he has and Kluber becomes version 2.0.1.4 again, good things will happen.
Still, as we approach this holiday weekend, Mike Chernoff cannot be sitting on his hands. He has 3 unproductive veterans who either need to hit or get gone. The Indians waited too long with Swisher and Bourn and it hurt them big time over the last two years. We are right on the cusp of being a very good team, worthy of Sports Illustrated cover-like hype. We have to plug those holes, though and I hope we have the horses in the minors to do it...and soon.
Have a great weekend!
Thursday, May 26, 2016
Sunday, May 22, 2016
It's doubleheader Monday. Stay tuned for a wild ride
OK, we have just lost two in a row in Boston. The two steps forward, one (or two) steps back approach to this season might be in the backward marching phase right now.
But who knows for sure?
That is why today is so important. We have Mike Clevinger and Cody Anderson going for the Indians. We brought up Austin Adams to shore up the bullpen but he went two innings today. I wouldn't be surprised if he was sent out today and another, fresher reliever added to the roster...just in case.
In case of what? Well, Clevinger is in his second start in the majors. We don't know what he will give us. In the second game we have Cody Anderson, he of the 10 HR balls in 32 innings and, every time he has pitched in a game this year, the Indians have lost that game.
The thing to worry about is one or both of these guys tanking it early in the game. Our bullpen could get a real test and, more than likely, one or both of Clevinger/Anderson will be asked to go deep in the game, no matter what the score is.
So this could get ugly today. I am talking so ugly that the 9-1 thrashing we got on Saturday could be considered a nailbiter compared to what is going to happen today.
Or the Indians actually will have karma on their side and a miracle-like thing could happen where both Clevinger and Anderson could go deep in these games giving up three runs or less apiece and the Indians could break out their lumber and treat the White Sox like they treated Cincinnati last week. If the karma thing happens, maybe it will be a turning point in this season and the Indians can take off from here.
Let's hope for the miracle-like performance by both Clevinger and Anderson. We all know the Tribe needs it in this doubleheader. Keep your fingers crossed, knock on some good wood and hope that good fortune smiles on the Indians today and may the Force (read: karma) be with us.
Or maybe we just pray for rain...until Carrasco comes off the DL. Do you think that would be too much to ask for?
But who knows for sure?
That is why today is so important. We have Mike Clevinger and Cody Anderson going for the Indians. We brought up Austin Adams to shore up the bullpen but he went two innings today. I wouldn't be surprised if he was sent out today and another, fresher reliever added to the roster...just in case.
In case of what? Well, Clevinger is in his second start in the majors. We don't know what he will give us. In the second game we have Cody Anderson, he of the 10 HR balls in 32 innings and, every time he has pitched in a game this year, the Indians have lost that game.
The thing to worry about is one or both of these guys tanking it early in the game. Our bullpen could get a real test and, more than likely, one or both of Clevinger/Anderson will be asked to go deep in the game, no matter what the score is.
So this could get ugly today. I am talking so ugly that the 9-1 thrashing we got on Saturday could be considered a nailbiter compared to what is going to happen today.
Or the Indians actually will have karma on their side and a miracle-like thing could happen where both Clevinger and Anderson could go deep in these games giving up three runs or less apiece and the Indians could break out their lumber and treat the White Sox like they treated Cincinnati last week. If the karma thing happens, maybe it will be a turning point in this season and the Indians can take off from here.
Let's hope for the miracle-like performance by both Clevinger and Anderson. We all know the Tribe needs it in this doubleheader. Keep your fingers crossed, knock on some good wood and hope that good fortune smiles on the Indians today and may the Force (read: karma) be with us.
Or maybe we just pray for rain...until Carrasco comes off the DL. Do you think that would be too much to ask for?
Thursday, May 19, 2016
Belated congratulations to Tony Wolters and other musings
Baseball doesn't totally consume me as it used to so this one got by me. Tony Wolters is catching for the Colorado Rockies. Yes, the same Tony Wolters that we lost on waivers to Colorado when we DFA'd him to sign the immortal Juan "game winning" Uribe. One of 4 DFAs of prospects the Indians did this spring to open roster spots for guys like Ross Detweiler and Uribe (Marlon Byrd and Rajai Davis were other veterans we added), Wolters is now playing in the majors.
Now Wolters is only hitting .200 but he is only 23 years old. Having watched him play in the minors for years now I was disappointed when the Indians lost him. I don't think he will ever be a great player but when you lose a prospect you expect to get something back.
The Indians got nothing back.
Now, admittedly, the other three guys, James Ramsey, Zach Walters and Giovani Soto are all struggling at AAA this year. However, how about trading them for other prospects who are struggling or even a Domonican prospect who is probably 6 years away from the majors instead of giving them away for some paltry sum of cash. In my opinion the Indians treat borderline prospects inappropriately. They add guys to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft and then DFA them soon thereafter, losing them anyway. How crazy is that?
So, who knows if Wolters will have a ML career or this is just his moment in the sun. All I can say is good luck to him and wonder why the Indians would give up on a prospect who had decent upside and give him away for nothing. And then have the guy make a ML roster that same spring.
It seems like he was worth more than a waiver price, don't you think?
Now Wolters is only hitting .200 but he is only 23 years old. Having watched him play in the minors for years now I was disappointed when the Indians lost him. I don't think he will ever be a great player but when you lose a prospect you expect to get something back.
The Indians got nothing back.
Now, admittedly, the other three guys, James Ramsey, Zach Walters and Giovani Soto are all struggling at AAA this year. However, how about trading them for other prospects who are struggling or even a Domonican prospect who is probably 6 years away from the majors instead of giving them away for some paltry sum of cash. In my opinion the Indians treat borderline prospects inappropriately. They add guys to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft and then DFA them soon thereafter, losing them anyway. How crazy is that?
So, who knows if Wolters will have a ML career or this is just his moment in the sun. All I can say is good luck to him and wonder why the Indians would give up on a prospect who had decent upside and give him away for nothing. And then have the guy make a ML roster that same spring.
It seems like he was worth more than a waiver price, don't you think?
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
The path seemed clear to me
Tonight is Mike Clevinger's first start and I predict that Francona is going to blow it.
First, he leaves Uribe in to hit in the 6th with two guys on. He has lefthanded hitters on the bench who would not only help the situation but also the defense as Ramirez would come in to play 3rd.
That failing, he leaves Clevinger in to pitch the 6th. Now Clevinger is at 79 pitches. He likely would not make it through the next inning as he is averaging 16 pitches an inning and his fastball is now 3 mph less than it was at the start of the game, meaning it is likely to take him MORE pitches to get out of the 6th. Experts talk about pitch count and how that number is deceiving based on which pitches are high leverage pitches (e.g., any pitch with the bases loaded and no outs, or the 6th or higher pitch in an at bat trying to put a guy away who is being pesky) and which are just normal pitches (any pitch early in the count with a 3-run lead and no one on base). Well, when it is taking you 16 pitches an inning, even though you have only allowed 3 baserunners through 5 innings, you are struggling to put guys away meaning, at least to me, that Clevinger worked harder (and, thus, threw more high leverage pitches) than it would appear.
He should have not allowed Clevinger to start the 6th inning. He had Otero (or Chamberlain) for the 6th, McAllister for the 7th, Shaw for the 8th and Allen for the 9th. He was set for the rest of the game. But he leaves Clevinger in.
We'll see how this turns out but let me tell you this is, in my opinion, bad managing. He seems to do this more when rookies are involved than with veterans, at least in my opinion.
UPDATE: And Clevinger, who was obviously amped at the beginning and so was more than likely more tired than he would normally be at this point in a start, gives up 3 straight hits and turns a three run lead into a one run lead and a great major league start into a mediocre major league start. Then he leaves him in there to face Phillips who he fortunately strikes out.
Let me go on record as saying I think Francona intentionally screwed this up. He doesn't like rookies and he did everything he could to make sure Clevinger wasn't going to do well.
And Francona totally screws up the kid's start and the inning and, most likely, the game as it is now 6-4 and Clevinger, who should have left the game with AT LEAST a 3 run lead and a great first start in the majors ended up giving up 4 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings AND the Indians burned two relievers to get out of the inning anyway.
Sorry for the rant but Terry, er, Tito, er, whatever his name is Francona should be the second manager fired this season.
EPILOGUE: The Indians wound up winning with Otero having to close out the game after Francona had to use Allen (2 innings) and Shaw (1 inning) just to keep us in the game. That is, of course, after he used both guys for mop up duty last night in a 13-1 game. Does the end justify the means? Absolutely not. The end, which is saving his butt from a series of bad decisions, cost him a great deal, probably the biggest thing being in the clubhouse. If I can see how stupid and non-sensical some of his moves are, what do you think the players are thinking at this point? Let me tell you this: If we had a LeBron James-like presence in the Indians' clubhouse then Francona would have been shown the door a long time ago. Not that LeBron likes rookies. I don't think he does. But he does know good coaching and he would have not put up with this crap.
First, he leaves Uribe in to hit in the 6th with two guys on. He has lefthanded hitters on the bench who would not only help the situation but also the defense as Ramirez would come in to play 3rd.
That failing, he leaves Clevinger in to pitch the 6th. Now Clevinger is at 79 pitches. He likely would not make it through the next inning as he is averaging 16 pitches an inning and his fastball is now 3 mph less than it was at the start of the game, meaning it is likely to take him MORE pitches to get out of the 6th. Experts talk about pitch count and how that number is deceiving based on which pitches are high leverage pitches (e.g., any pitch with the bases loaded and no outs, or the 6th or higher pitch in an at bat trying to put a guy away who is being pesky) and which are just normal pitches (any pitch early in the count with a 3-run lead and no one on base). Well, when it is taking you 16 pitches an inning, even though you have only allowed 3 baserunners through 5 innings, you are struggling to put guys away meaning, at least to me, that Clevinger worked harder (and, thus, threw more high leverage pitches) than it would appear.
He should have not allowed Clevinger to start the 6th inning. He had Otero (or Chamberlain) for the 6th, McAllister for the 7th, Shaw for the 8th and Allen for the 9th. He was set for the rest of the game. But he leaves Clevinger in.
We'll see how this turns out but let me tell you this is, in my opinion, bad managing. He seems to do this more when rookies are involved than with veterans, at least in my opinion.
UPDATE: And Clevinger, who was obviously amped at the beginning and so was more than likely more tired than he would normally be at this point in a start, gives up 3 straight hits and turns a three run lead into a one run lead and a great major league start into a mediocre major league start. Then he leaves him in there to face Phillips who he fortunately strikes out.
Let me go on record as saying I think Francona intentionally screwed this up. He doesn't like rookies and he did everything he could to make sure Clevinger wasn't going to do well.
And Francona totally screws up the kid's start and the inning and, most likely, the game as it is now 6-4 and Clevinger, who should have left the game with AT LEAST a 3 run lead and a great first start in the majors ended up giving up 4 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings AND the Indians burned two relievers to get out of the inning anyway.
Sorry for the rant but Terry, er, Tito, er, whatever his name is Francona should be the second manager fired this season.
EPILOGUE: The Indians wound up winning with Otero having to close out the game after Francona had to use Allen (2 innings) and Shaw (1 inning) just to keep us in the game. That is, of course, after he used both guys for mop up duty last night in a 13-1 game. Does the end justify the means? Absolutely not. The end, which is saving his butt from a series of bad decisions, cost him a great deal, probably the biggest thing being in the clubhouse. If I can see how stupid and non-sensical some of his moves are, what do you think the players are thinking at this point? Let me tell you this: If we had a LeBron James-like presence in the Indians' clubhouse then Francona would have been shown the door a long time ago. Not that LeBron likes rookies. I don't think he does. But he does know good coaching and he would have not put up with this crap.
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
Home ALone 4 - Extended Spring Training
Every year there are guys in the Indians' organization who don't make a team out of spring training. Some are cut, some bide their time until an opening is created by injury, promotion or release and some just are there getting their routine together in anticipation of the rookie league teams (Mahoning Valley and the AZL Indians) starting their seasons.
By my count there are still over 40 guys in extended spring training. Some of these guys are true prospects. For the Indians this year almost all the really good prospects still in extended spring training are pitchers. Most of the true prospects will be assigned to Mahoning Valley, meaning that team should have a heck of a pitching staff.
Here is a list of all the guys the Indians have in extended spring training and where I think they will be assigned once the short season/rookie league teams start. As I said there are a significant number of prospects to dream on if you are looking for future Cleveland Indians. If you haven't thought about it I would suggest for Ohio-based Indians fans, it looks like this might be a good year to travel to a game or two at Mahoning Valley as it looks like there will be a lot of top prospects on that team.
By my count there are still over 40 guys in extended spring training. Some of these guys are true prospects. For the Indians this year almost all the really good prospects still in extended spring training are pitchers. Most of the true prospects will be assigned to Mahoning Valley, meaning that team should have a heck of a pitching staff.
Here is a list of all the guys the Indians have in extended spring training and where I think they will be assigned once the short season/rookie league teams start. As I said there are a significant number of prospects to dream on if you are looking for future Cleveland Indians. If you haven't thought about it I would suggest for Ohio-based Indians fans, it looks like this might be a good year to travel to a game or two at Mahoning Valley as it looks like there will be a lot of top prospects on that team.
TRUE
PROSPECTS
Brady Aiken - P - Mahoning Valley
Triston McKenzie - P - Mahoning Valley
Jonas Wyatt - P - AZL Indians
Juan Hillman - P - Mahoning Valley
Justin Garza - P - Mahoning Valley
Gabriel Mejia - OF - Mahoning Valley
Luke Wakamatsu - SS - AZL Indians
Grant Hockin - P - Mahoning Valley
BORDERLINE
PROSPECTS
Alex Pantoja - SS - Mahoning Valley
Grofi Cruz - 3B - Mahoning Valley
Micah Miniard - P - Mahoning Valley
Todd Isaacs - OF - AZL Indians
Ryan Perez - P - Mahoning Valley
Ping-Hsueh Chen - C - Mahoning Valley
Jodd Carter - OF - Mahoning Valley
There are a number of other players still in extended spring training. For these guys, they will be assigned where players are needed to fill out teams and some, in fact, may be released before the short season teams begin playing Right now not many of them are true prospects. The US (drafted) guys below are most likely truly just organizational players. That is, they are there to fill roster spots with no real chance of ever making it to the majors. Some of the foreign players below (e.g., Emmanuel Tapia) may develop into prospects but, right now, they are like the US organizational players, just guys who fill out the rosters to give the real prospects teams to play on. For these reasons I haven't assigned them a team yet as their assignment will be based on the needs of these teams after the amateur draft in June.
US
ORGANIZATIONAL PLAYERS
Randy Valladares
Argenis Angulo
G. Paul Gonzalez
Jordan Dunatov
Ryan Colegate
Simeon Lucas
Juan Gomes
Kevin Bradley
Devon Stewart
Jack Goihl
OTHER
FOREIGN PLAYERS
Junior Soto
Jorma Rodriguez
Luis Jimenez
Randy Marte
D. Jimenez
Jose Medina
Henry Martinez
Leandro Linares
Erick Algarin
Jason Rodriguez
Juan Garcia
Miguel Eladio
Erlin Cerda
Emmanuel Tapia
Angel Miguel
Li-Jen Chu
Juan De La Cruz
Francisco Lopez
Sunday, May 15, 2016
I know it can get worse but...
...without the Cleveland Indians the Minnesota Twins would be 6-24. The Twins are rebuilding, the Indians are trying to win. Yet we are vs the team with the worst record in baseball!!!!!!!!! And it isn't pretty. The worst part of this is that the veterans we brought in (Rajai Davis, Juan Uribe and Marlon Byrd) are actually CAUSING us to lose. If the three of them were just performing at the somewhat mediocre level that Mike Napoli is we would be much better than a .500 team in mid-May. These veterans truly suck and it ain't getting better:
Marlon Byrd is a historically slow starter but usually picks it up in May as the weather warms up. This year he is hitting .160 in May.
Rajai Davis - He tends to start off strong and there is nothing to really show that he heats it up as the season goes along. He is hitting .105 in May
Juan Uribe - He has a whopping .613 OPS.
There is nothing to tell me that any of these guys should be getting regular playing time, but they are. And it is killing us. How many 1-run games have these guys not hit in?
The issue with all this is that Tyler Naquin was sent out so two of these washed up guys could get playing time. He hit before he was sent to Columbus, he hit in Columbus and he hit once he came back. It took us 3 months last year to decide to get rid of Swisher and Bourn and it really cost us.
I hope that we are quicker with the trigger this year. Sending out Naquin showed how much the Indians would rather play these more expensive veterans. Hey, I am not against shopping in the bargain basement or trying to catch lightning in a bottle once in a while. But you have to cut ties with guys who just can't cut it. Davis should be gone tomorrow and another couple of weeks like this and Byrd should follow him. Ramirez should start every game at 3B until Urshela is healthy and then Uribe should be traded or released.
We should be 21-13 at this point instead of 17-17. And it all comes down to these veterans not performing. The original sending out of Naquin shows that Francona wants to play veterans and his history in Boston tells me he can't control these veterans. Playing veterans is fine IF they help you win games of the type they are helping us lose. Otherwise, who needs this type of veterans?
If I was GM I would go all Matt Damon on Francona and trade or release Byrd, Davis and Uribe and make Francona play the kids.
But I am not the GM and I probably should just listen to these guys because they are the experts, right? That might be true if they knew what they were doing. But when was the last time we actually made the real playoff rounds, won a pennant or a World Series? It's been a long time so these guys are not exactly the infallible experts, are they?
Marlon Byrd is a historically slow starter but usually picks it up in May as the weather warms up. This year he is hitting .160 in May.
Rajai Davis - He tends to start off strong and there is nothing to really show that he heats it up as the season goes along. He is hitting .105 in May
Juan Uribe - He has a whopping .613 OPS.
There is nothing to tell me that any of these guys should be getting regular playing time, but they are. And it is killing us. How many 1-run games have these guys not hit in?
The issue with all this is that Tyler Naquin was sent out so two of these washed up guys could get playing time. He hit before he was sent to Columbus, he hit in Columbus and he hit once he came back. It took us 3 months last year to decide to get rid of Swisher and Bourn and it really cost us.
I hope that we are quicker with the trigger this year. Sending out Naquin showed how much the Indians would rather play these more expensive veterans. Hey, I am not against shopping in the bargain basement or trying to catch lightning in a bottle once in a while. But you have to cut ties with guys who just can't cut it. Davis should be gone tomorrow and another couple of weeks like this and Byrd should follow him. Ramirez should start every game at 3B until Urshela is healthy and then Uribe should be traded or released.
We should be 21-13 at this point instead of 17-17. And it all comes down to these veterans not performing. The original sending out of Naquin shows that Francona wants to play veterans and his history in Boston tells me he can't control these veterans. Playing veterans is fine IF they help you win games of the type they are helping us lose. Otherwise, who needs this type of veterans?
If I was GM I would go all Matt Damon on Francona and trade or release Byrd, Davis and Uribe and make Francona play the kids.
But I am not the GM and I probably should just listen to these guys because they are the experts, right? That might be true if they knew what they were doing. But when was the last time we actually made the real playoff rounds, won a pennant or a World Series? It's been a long time so these guys are not exactly the infallible experts, are they?
Thursday, May 12, 2016
Minor League Success - Historic early success by the Indians this year - What does it mean?
How important is winning in the minor leagues. A number of organizations think that establishing an environment of success spills over to the majors and your major league team is much more likely to be successful if the guys coming up from the minors are used to winning.
Still, pitchers are on strict pitch counts, and even yearly counts in innings, guys are promoted mid-season to the next highest level of the minors or to the majors. Guys are also allowed to struggle as they work on things because, well, it is only the minors and development is more important than winning.
So, while teams LIKE to see their minor league affiliates win because it stimulates fan interest and revenue for those teams which make those minor league franchises stronger and more viable, the development of the players and the success of the MAJOR LEAGUE team comes before winning.
Given the above, what I am about to write is actually worth about as much as a US penny. Still, it's exciting because something of historical proportions is occurring in the Indians' minor league system.
As I write this (Columbus game about to start today), here are the records of the Indians four full-season affiliates:
Columbus 21-11
Akron 23-9
Lynchburg 22-10
Lake County 21-12
That's an overall winning pct. of .674 and, while I haven't verified it, probably easily leads all clubs in overall minor league wining pct. this year. The last time the Indians led in minor league winning pct. was 2002. Normally teams who lead the majors have winning percentages of between .570 and .580. Now, we have a long way to go with the full-season teams and our short season teams in Mahoning Valley and in Arizona haven't even played a game so things may change drastically, but given that that highest composite (for all a major league team's US minor league affiliates) minor league winning percentage in the last 20 years was .603. This makes what the Indians' affiliates, all of whom lead their divisions, are doing right now is truly historic. But does it necessarily mean success in the majors going forward?
I can tell you that in the last 20 years the highest winning pct. a minor league organization had was the San Francisco Giants in 2009, with a .603 winning pct. I don't know how much it had to do with it but the Giants won the World Series in 2010, 2012 and 2014. Of course, the second highest winning pct. in that period was by the Royals in 2001 at .597 and they only had one winning year (2003) in the 10 years following that 2001 season. The Yankees had a .596 winning pct. in 2006 but it's the Yankees and their major league success is built on dollars, not prospects, so the translation of minor league success to major league success is a harder calculation with them.
So, what does this mean to the future of the Cleveland Indians? Who knows. Clearly our top prospects are not having outstanding years. While Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier are showing flashes, neither looks, right now, like they will help us this year. Guys like Justus Sheffield, Mike Clevinger, Bobby Bradley and Erik Gonzalez are having solid seasons and looking like future major leaguers, but none is putting up eye-popping, lights out numbers. They just look solid. Other prospects are putting up good nmbers, too, and some like Mike Papi, are disappointing. Others like Rob Kaminsky are slowed by injury and young guys like Triston McKenzie, Luke Wakamatsu and Juan Hillman are stuck in suspended animation in extended spring training.
If you examine the rosters of our minor league teams it is not like we are doing this exclusively with minor league veterans. Those rosters, except for Columbus, are generally filled with prospects and some suspects (i.e. prospects repeating levels, some for the 3rd or 4th times). Still, they are mostly OUR guys, guys we either drafted, signed as amateur free agents or acquired in veteran-for-prospect trades. Looking at those rosters critically, there are lots of prospects or relatively young guys who are biding their time in the minors on those rosters. Here is my list:
Columbus - 14 prospects or young players (like TJ House, the now injured Giovanny Urshela and now recently promoted Tyler Naquin) biding their time
Akron - 9 prospects plus 4 on the DL (only 2 guys who are minor league free agents, the rest are players developed by the Indians and, in most cases, signed originally by the Indians)
Lynchburg - 15 guys I think are prospects and EVERY guy on the roster was drafted or signed by us as an amateur player
Lake County - Frankly, this is our weakest roster. Using Baseball America as a source, only 3 of the guys on the Lake County roster are in our top 30 prospects and I see only about 7 guys who I would count as real prospects on this roster. Still, we only have one guy over the age of 23 and while most of the guys on this roster are a little old for this level (average roster age 22 years with MOST of the guys actually 22 years old), it's not like this team is extremely old for this level. Most of this roster is relatively young to professional baseball so it's not like this team is winning due to prospects or even suspects being backed up at this level making them too advanced for this level. And we all know that older guys who are new to professional baseball can have more upside than you would, a priori, think.
Will this year be reflective of success in the future by the Indians? Who knows but, looking at the rosters, it is EXTREMELY likely that guys from these rosters will make an impact in the majors in the next 2-3 years. If that impact is as extreme as their teams' winning percentages this year, the Indians could be looking at extended success. Let's hope that success is similar to that of Giants teams I mentioned above.
Still, pitchers are on strict pitch counts, and even yearly counts in innings, guys are promoted mid-season to the next highest level of the minors or to the majors. Guys are also allowed to struggle as they work on things because, well, it is only the minors and development is more important than winning.
So, while teams LIKE to see their minor league affiliates win because it stimulates fan interest and revenue for those teams which make those minor league franchises stronger and more viable, the development of the players and the success of the MAJOR LEAGUE team comes before winning.
Given the above, what I am about to write is actually worth about as much as a US penny. Still, it's exciting because something of historical proportions is occurring in the Indians' minor league system.
As I write this (Columbus game about to start today), here are the records of the Indians four full-season affiliates:
Columbus 21-11
Akron 23-9
Lynchburg 22-10
Lake County 21-12
That's an overall winning pct. of .674 and, while I haven't verified it, probably easily leads all clubs in overall minor league wining pct. this year. The last time the Indians led in minor league winning pct. was 2002. Normally teams who lead the majors have winning percentages of between .570 and .580. Now, we have a long way to go with the full-season teams and our short season teams in Mahoning Valley and in Arizona haven't even played a game so things may change drastically, but given that that highest composite (for all a major league team's US minor league affiliates) minor league winning percentage in the last 20 years was .603. This makes what the Indians' affiliates, all of whom lead their divisions, are doing right now is truly historic. But does it necessarily mean success in the majors going forward?
I can tell you that in the last 20 years the highest winning pct. a minor league organization had was the San Francisco Giants in 2009, with a .603 winning pct. I don't know how much it had to do with it but the Giants won the World Series in 2010, 2012 and 2014. Of course, the second highest winning pct. in that period was by the Royals in 2001 at .597 and they only had one winning year (2003) in the 10 years following that 2001 season. The Yankees had a .596 winning pct. in 2006 but it's the Yankees and their major league success is built on dollars, not prospects, so the translation of minor league success to major league success is a harder calculation with them.
So, what does this mean to the future of the Cleveland Indians? Who knows. Clearly our top prospects are not having outstanding years. While Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier are showing flashes, neither looks, right now, like they will help us this year. Guys like Justus Sheffield, Mike Clevinger, Bobby Bradley and Erik Gonzalez are having solid seasons and looking like future major leaguers, but none is putting up eye-popping, lights out numbers. They just look solid. Other prospects are putting up good nmbers, too, and some like Mike Papi, are disappointing. Others like Rob Kaminsky are slowed by injury and young guys like Triston McKenzie, Luke Wakamatsu and Juan Hillman are stuck in suspended animation in extended spring training.
If you examine the rosters of our minor league teams it is not like we are doing this exclusively with minor league veterans. Those rosters, except for Columbus, are generally filled with prospects and some suspects (i.e. prospects repeating levels, some for the 3rd or 4th times). Still, they are mostly OUR guys, guys we either drafted, signed as amateur free agents or acquired in veteran-for-prospect trades. Looking at those rosters critically, there are lots of prospects or relatively young guys who are biding their time in the minors on those rosters. Here is my list:
Columbus - 14 prospects or young players (like TJ House, the now injured Giovanny Urshela and now recently promoted Tyler Naquin) biding their time
Akron - 9 prospects plus 4 on the DL (only 2 guys who are minor league free agents, the rest are players developed by the Indians and, in most cases, signed originally by the Indians)
Lynchburg - 15 guys I think are prospects and EVERY guy on the roster was drafted or signed by us as an amateur player
Lake County - Frankly, this is our weakest roster. Using Baseball America as a source, only 3 of the guys on the Lake County roster are in our top 30 prospects and I see only about 7 guys who I would count as real prospects on this roster. Still, we only have one guy over the age of 23 and while most of the guys on this roster are a little old for this level (average roster age 22 years with MOST of the guys actually 22 years old), it's not like this team is extremely old for this level. Most of this roster is relatively young to professional baseball so it's not like this team is winning due to prospects or even suspects being backed up at this level making them too advanced for this level. And we all know that older guys who are new to professional baseball can have more upside than you would, a priori, think.
Will this year be reflective of success in the future by the Indians? Who knows but, looking at the rosters, it is EXTREMELY likely that guys from these rosters will make an impact in the majors in the next 2-3 years. If that impact is as extreme as their teams' winning percentages this year, the Indians could be looking at extended success. Let's hope that success is similar to that of Giants teams I mentioned above.
Saturday, May 7, 2016
...and the other shoe drops
Well, lots of shoes, actually.
Some coach once said something like the best thing about freshmen is that they soon become sophomores, or something like that.
Some baseball managers feel the same way about rookies. They will do whatever they can to not play a rookie or a young player and only want to play the ones who are superstars.
I think we are seeing that with Terry Francona. The only time he wants to play a rookie is if the veteran(s) he has at his disposal are not helping him to win. The issue becomes that you rely on veterans and only give the young player a chance if he is your last option.
Such is the case with Tyler Naquin. After a hot spring he played sparingly once he made the club. Let's look at his play time:
Basically, as a rookie, Naquin was played in such a way that it was VERY difficult for him to be successful. Yet he succeeded, having a .753 OPS while trying to get his feet on the ground in the majors which was hindered by sporadic play.
The kid was set up to fail and, when he didn't they optioned him to AAA anyway.
Now, all the excuses are flying: he had only one walk, we had enough outfielders without him, he hasn't played enough in AAA to polish his game and, my favorite, by sending him out for a while we will control him another year as he won't have the service time to be a free agent if he plays some in the minors this year.
Hey, we are in Cleveland, we should be playing young players. They are our life blood, not retread free agents who didn't get any other reasonable offers. Byrd, Uribe, Napoli. Don't get me started.
Plus we started with Detweiler as our lefty which cost us one of James Ramsey or Giovanni Soto and Detweiler is now in the minors and Kyle Crockett is now where he should be, in our bullpen. Just bad decision making, once again favoring questionable veterans over younger players
The decision making on this club favors retread veterans over rookies, except in the case where a less experienced player gets a chance (Cody Anderson) and he becomes probably the single most important reason for our mediocre start this year, as the Indians are 0-5 his 5 starts. And the Indians braintrust picked him to start the season in the rotation instead of Trevor Bauer.
As I said before, it is a long season. It just looks so far like most of the player personnel decisions that have been made this season have been the wrong ones. So, instead of having a great start we are mired in mediocre once again. Again, we have until the end of May. If things don't turn around it will become time to question Francona's desire to use veterans and the GM's ability to make the best decisions, despite what his manager wants.
Some coach once said something like the best thing about freshmen is that they soon become sophomores, or something like that.
Some baseball managers feel the same way about rookies. They will do whatever they can to not play a rookie or a young player and only want to play the ones who are superstars.
I think we are seeing that with Terry Francona. The only time he wants to play a rookie is if the veteran(s) he has at his disposal are not helping him to win. The issue becomes that you rely on veterans and only give the young player a chance if he is your last option.
Such is the case with Tyler Naquin. After a hot spring he played sparingly once he made the club. Let's look at his play time:
- His first start was on April 14th, two weeks into the season. I know we faced a lot of lefthanders but give the kid a chance. And the kid hit in his first full game (3-5) after mostly gathering dust for two weeks
- He started again on April 16th and then started again on April 20th.
- From April 20th on he hit in 9 out of 10 games he batted in with the other game getting only one AB. He then went 0-3 before he was sent down.
Basically, as a rookie, Naquin was played in such a way that it was VERY difficult for him to be successful. Yet he succeeded, having a .753 OPS while trying to get his feet on the ground in the majors which was hindered by sporadic play.
The kid was set up to fail and, when he didn't they optioned him to AAA anyway.
Now, all the excuses are flying: he had only one walk, we had enough outfielders without him, he hasn't played enough in AAA to polish his game and, my favorite, by sending him out for a while we will control him another year as he won't have the service time to be a free agent if he plays some in the minors this year.
Hey, we are in Cleveland, we should be playing young players. They are our life blood, not retread free agents who didn't get any other reasonable offers. Byrd, Uribe, Napoli. Don't get me started.
Plus we started with Detweiler as our lefty which cost us one of James Ramsey or Giovanni Soto and Detweiler is now in the minors and Kyle Crockett is now where he should be, in our bullpen. Just bad decision making, once again favoring questionable veterans over younger players
The decision making on this club favors retread veterans over rookies, except in the case where a less experienced player gets a chance (Cody Anderson) and he becomes probably the single most important reason for our mediocre start this year, as the Indians are 0-5 his 5 starts. And the Indians braintrust picked him to start the season in the rotation instead of Trevor Bauer.
As I said before, it is a long season. It just looks so far like most of the player personnel decisions that have been made this season have been the wrong ones. So, instead of having a great start we are mired in mediocre once again. Again, we have until the end of May. If things don't turn around it will become time to question Francona's desire to use veterans and the GM's ability to make the best decisions, despite what his manager wants.
Thursday, May 5, 2016
I wonder how much it would cost to.....
...dress all of our opponents up in Detroit Tigers' uniforms? While not a real plausible idea, if we could do that we might go undefeated the rest of the year.
Go figure. The Indians struggle against rebuilding Philadelphia and Minnesota but sandwich that with two sweeps of the Tigers as the bread in that mediocre sandwich.
Well, we are back over .500 and Brantley had his best game of the year yet. There is still hope on the horizon and it is looking bigger...if we can just get our opponents to become Tigers for a day
Go figure. The Indians struggle against rebuilding Philadelphia and Minnesota but sandwich that with two sweeps of the Tigers as the bread in that mediocre sandwich.
Well, we are back over .500 and Brantley had his best game of the year yet. There is still hope on the horizon and it is looking bigger...if we can just get our opponents to become Tigers for a day
Sunday, May 1, 2016
The state of Cleveland sports - A momentary diversion from all Indians, all the time
The Indians lost today...again...swept by the rebuilding Phillies after almost being swept by the rebuilding Twins. The Indians' braintrust, as it is, supposedly built this team to win in April. Well, they didn't accomplish that, finishing 10-11 in that month. The only thing I will say is that they were close to .500 and Michael Brantley wasn't playing. So, I will give them May. However, if they don't make a big turnaround in May it will be time to seriously start worrying about the decision-making of the Indians' braintrust, as it is.
Talking about brain trusts, I don't that much about the NFL but I do know this. Most 'experts' rated the Browns' draft as one of the worst in the NFL. Now I can see through the BS of experts who had a thought about what the Browns should have done (draft a QB) and losing sight of what they DID accomplish. So, for the Cleveland faithful, there should be hope. That being said, this year's draft conjures up memories of the 1999 and 2000 drafts when the Browns were granted all those extra picks as an expansion team. If my memory is correct, back then people were saying the same thing about the head-scratching picks the Browns made when they could have been building a great team for years to come. Of course at that point we didn't have analytics the way we do today. Still, when I read about this year's draft I can't help thinking it is a repeat of 1999 and 2000. I also get this vision of Kevin Costner standing at his desk unfolding a piece of paper and written on it is "Joey Bosa. No matter what". Just saying that is what I would have done at the second pick. I also get this thought about the movie "Major League" where the thought was if you make the team sucky enough we can move it south...or maybe West. Hmmm, is that the Browns GM talking or could it be........Satin! (sorry, had to throw in that Church Lady reference).
Finally, the Cavs. What can you say about a team that should easily win the East and face Golden State. The bottom line is anything less than that is failure. Any misstep along the way is failure and any win before that is, well, obvious. I think, sometimes, I would rather be the GM of the Browns and Indians before being the GM of the Cavs who, BTW, did very little to help this team before the trade deadline. At least with the Browns and Indians, the GM has a chance to move the team up and be successful. With the Cavs, there is only perfection and failure. THAT is a lot of pressure with a low chance for success.
Talking about brain trusts, I don't that much about the NFL but I do know this. Most 'experts' rated the Browns' draft as one of the worst in the NFL. Now I can see through the BS of experts who had a thought about what the Browns should have done (draft a QB) and losing sight of what they DID accomplish. So, for the Cleveland faithful, there should be hope. That being said, this year's draft conjures up memories of the 1999 and 2000 drafts when the Browns were granted all those extra picks as an expansion team. If my memory is correct, back then people were saying the same thing about the head-scratching picks the Browns made when they could have been building a great team for years to come. Of course at that point we didn't have analytics the way we do today. Still, when I read about this year's draft I can't help thinking it is a repeat of 1999 and 2000. I also get this vision of Kevin Costner standing at his desk unfolding a piece of paper and written on it is "Joey Bosa. No matter what". Just saying that is what I would have done at the second pick. I also get this thought about the movie "Major League" where the thought was if you make the team sucky enough we can move it south...or maybe West. Hmmm, is that the Browns GM talking or could it be........Satin! (sorry, had to throw in that Church Lady reference).
Finally, the Cavs. What can you say about a team that should easily win the East and face Golden State. The bottom line is anything less than that is failure. Any misstep along the way is failure and any win before that is, well, obvious. I think, sometimes, I would rather be the GM of the Browns and Indians before being the GM of the Cavs who, BTW, did very little to help this team before the trade deadline. At least with the Browns and Indians, the GM has a chance to move the team up and be successful. With the Cavs, there is only perfection and failure. THAT is a lot of pressure with a low chance for success.
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