Draft signing update

No news yet on Jones.   Now with Bieber signed for approximately $420K we have a really good idea about what we have to work with in terms of bonus excess for Jones plus guys after round 10.

Again, there are two ways we can go here:  sign Jones or sign a number of guys after the 10th round.  With about $1 million over slot to work with (plus the $100,000 bonus slot each of these guys get) we can sign a whole slew of guys or we can sign Jones.  Even Jones can be signed for $1.95 million we could have enough extra cash to sign ONE quality guy after round 10. 

So what would you rather have:

a. Jones for $2.3 million
b. Jones for $1.9 million plus maybe Baird
c. Our second round pick back next year plus Baird, Crowe and Amditis or Shenton.

This is a tough call as it is quality vs quantity.   Still, if it was up to me, if I could sign Baird, Crowe and Amditis, I would offer Jones a little over slot and, if he didn't sign, let him go.

Rumor is that Calica has signed and it might be $50,000 over his $100,000 slot.   Don't like it if it is over slot because he is redundant to Allen and others.  Would have rather applied that to a HS pitcher's bonus.

 

Trade target - notice this is NOT a plural

Looking at Paul Hoynes' recent column in the Plain Dealer I am underwhelmed by the players he mentions.   He mentions John Jay.   I live in St. Louis where he played up to this year and he is not what we need by any stretch of the imagination.     The rest of these guys are shopping in the bargain basement and I don't think that will help us win this year or next year.  We may get these guys without giving up top prospects but they won't be difference makers and so I would not trade for any of them. 

So, here, in my opinion, is our trade target: Ryan Braun

Yes, this guy is the face of the Brewers.

Yes, it will take a haul of prospects to get him, minimally Clevinger, Clint Frazier and Erik Gonzalez.  We might even have to throw in Lonnie Chisenhall which might be acceptable if they gave us a good lefty reliever back in addition to Braun. 

Yes, by the time Braun's contract ends we will regret this deal as his production by that point is likely to underwhelm his salary (just like Albert Pujols' salary looks incredibly stupid right now, given his lack of production).  We will also regret the prospects we give up as they will be blossoming at just about the time Braun is declining.

But I think for that very reason the Brewers might do this deal.   I think they realize in their division that they better start forgetting about the present and focusing on 5 years down the road, a time when Braun will be pretty old and his contract will have expired, anyway.

I think we can win this year and next year, and maybe the year after that, with Braun and a healthy Brantley if the rest of the team stays healthy.  For that reason and the length of Braun's contract I do this deal.  It is such an anti-Indians deal as we love our prospects in Cleveland but, at the same time, you rarely have all the pieces we have in place right now. 

Ryan Braun is no LeBron James but I think he is the elite hitter missing in this lineup.   That is all I think we need, in addition to a good lefty reliever, of course. 

Soccer shoutout

OK, I am not a big soccer fan although I always wanted to be a soccer goalie but I am so old that Wickliffe HS did not have a soccer team when I was going to school.    I played a little there in college intramurals and indoor later on....but enough about me.

In the world of sports the Indians 10 game winning streak was just an afterthought compared to yesterday's result in the European soccer championships.   Just have to give a shoutout to Iceland.  I watched the entire game yesterday because I love an underdog story.   The announcers on ESPN, thick with Great Britain accents, were HYSTERICAL.   The way they were talking, the coach for England should have walked out to the center of the field (pitch) at the end of the game and eviscerated himself in front of the entire crowd.   They mentioned the names of England's soccer organization executives in a tone that made me think that they wanted those in England to know so that people would know who to make fun of and whose cars to egg the next day.  They complained how England would take four or five passes to get the ball back to the same spot where they took possession of it.  They complained about the players playing badly.   They said how embarrassing it was for English soccer, how it was the worst moment for them in the history of the soccer, how embarrassing it was that the richest professional soccer league in the world could produce players who played this badly.  The even invoked the horrendous US victory over England in 1950 which, apparently, previously set the standard for English ineptitude losing to a team totally devoid of any soccer ability at all. 

Then there was Iceland.  The team that actually beat England.   Yes, they did show up.  And they could play, despite the media stats about how there were more registered soccer players in Rhode Island than in Iceland and how 8% of Iceland's population was at the game (we all know that 20 years from now it will appear that 200% of the country attended the game).   No, in fact England did not lose on two 'own goals".   Iceland actually scored twice.  Amazing!   In Iceland they now have about 21 hours of daylight.   Maybe the longest daytime party in history!   I can see the movie title now:  "The miracle on pitch".  I wonder if Kurt Russell is available?   As I said, I love an underdog story.

Ben Baird - maybe this will help signing him!

Maybe we have LeBron James talk to our 20th round draft choice about signing with the Indians.  Maybe we can throw in him getting to spend a day with and go one-on-one with LeBron if he'll sign with the Indians :-)

https://twitter.com/benbaird21

Updated predictions (includes short season teams)

Indians 90-72 - Wild card winner, division series winner, league championship winner, world series winner.

Minor league records:
Columbus: 70-74
Akron: 80-64
Lynchburg: 76-68
Lake County: 76-68

I posted the above back at the end of March in the 25-man roster post.   Now that we have the draft results in and we know who we are going to sign, here are my short season team predictions

Mahoning Valley 32-44
AZL Indians - 33-23

It is really hard to project results for the Dominican team but let's say they will finish 2 games over .500 just to have a prediction in. 

2016 Draft - the currently unsigned guys

OK, the Indians are busily signing guys, more guys than I thought they would.  With the July 15th deadline not that far off, let's look at the guys who haven't signed and find out what our chances are of signing them and, frankly, what guys we should sign.

First, let's look at the Indians farm system.   Last year we drafted a number of HS pitchers.  That followed getting Justus Sheffield and Justin Mayweather the year before that.    So, in the low minors we are pretty well set with high end prospect pitchers.   In the upper minors we are a little thinner and aside from Mike Clevinger, we are looking at mostly #4-5 starters and relievers...but the cup is far from empty in terms of AA/AAA pitching prospects.      We are weak at catching prospects, strong at first base and a little thin in the outfield except for our high end guys, Zimmer and Frazier.  Most of our other OF prospects are slap and run guys.   Middle infield is solid.  Third base, beyond Urshela, is questionable but if Urshela comes on we are set there and clearly at utility INF.

Our ML team is set at starting pitching and is a little weak in most of other positions.   Assuming we can pull off an opportunisitc trade for a starting OFer and a quality LOOGY we might lose most of our quality OF prospects and perhaps a middle infielder and a pitcher. For me the target would be Ryan Braun and that would probably cost us at least Clevinger, Erik Gonzalez and Clint Frazier and we might have to throw in Chisenhall, too.  Maybe we could get a LOOGY from them, too.

So, with that in mind, let's look at the guys who we haven't signed:

Nolan Jones - He gives us a potentially impactful third base prospect.  I don't know if he will be in the same category but I look at him like Matt Whitney when we drafted him.  We all know he is the key signing but he is not the only one we need to sign.

Shane Bieber - He, along with Civale, gives us more #4-5 guys and if the Indians have scouted well, maybe one of these guys turns into a closer with a bump in MPH when they go to the bullpen.  We have a number of these guys at the upper levels of the minors but are missing these types from last year's draft so signing Bieber would be good.   Signing him for under slot would be better as we look to sign flyers. 

Andrew Calica - I don't see the reason for signing him.   Greg Allen is looking great, Gabriel Mejia has some upside and Connor Marabell and Nathan Lukes also have some promise.  If he will sign for $100,000 or maybe $125,000 then I say maybe.   However, how many non-power OFers does an organization need if those guys hardly ever make an impact at the ML level now.    Twenty-five years ago, maybe, but Michael Brantley is more the prototypical non-40 HR outfielder now and I don't see Calica (or Allen) putting up numbers like Brantley's.   Maybe Almonte numbers but those are AAA numbers, really.

Zack Smith, Blake Sabol, Mike Amditis - I think the chances of signing all these HS catchers went out the window when we signed Ice and Tinsley.  I think these three guys were contingency guys if we didn't sign Ice or Tinsley.  Since we have signed those college catchers and with the presence of Daniel Salters, spending money on HS catchers is pretty much a waste and given the quality of these guys, I think they all will and, frankly, probably should go to college.  I would love to sign all of them for $500,000 total but I really think that would be unneeded by us and unfair to them. 

Ben Baird - I think that signing him makes the most sense.   He is highly rated and Jones will probably end up at third base so having another MIF prospect a year behind Wakamatsu and two years behind Krieger and Mathias makes sense.

Wil Crowe - I LOVE this guy but I think signing him will be a waste of money.   I think he will ask for too much and would rather get two HS guys instead of him.

Chris Farish and Kramer Robertson -  Every year we draft some college players who decide to go back to college to play another year.  These two guys (and maybe Crowe) are likely to be this year's versions.

Auston Shenton, Spencer Steer, Armani Smith - One of these guys would be nice but, again, I don't know if we have the money and I think maybe they were just contingencies if we didn't sign Jones.  I originally thought they might be contingencies if we didn't sign Cantu and had budgeted $500,000 for him but since Cantu signed for slot, my guess is that these three guys were contingencies just for Jones not signing.

Nelson Alvarez, Mason Studstill, Andrew Baker - I love these HS pitcher types and some of them work out (See Shawn Morimando).  Others end up being first or second round picks 3 years down the road leaving me to always ask myself 'What if we would have signed this guy?'  So, if you can sign one or two and not break the bank, I say go for it.   This is a classic example of the more depth you have the better chances you have of getting a guy to the majors.   Frankly, though, if we signed all three the likelihood is that only one of them would make a major impact.

Alfonseca and Sinatro - I wonder if these two guys were just recognition signings.  That is, they have no chance to sign but we are doing them a favor by drafting them so they have on their resume that they were drafted in the ML draft.  Maybe like Wakamatsu we have a chance but, more often than not, these types of picks

DeVries and Burgos - I think both will/have signed. 

So, that's it.   If we get Jones, Bieber and Baird I will be very happy with this draft.   If we get Crowe or one of the HS pitchers, as well, I am over the top happy.

Julio Franco - Mr. 3028?

First, I have long thought the Indians never did enough to keep (and especially to bring back) their best players of the 80s/90s.   Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez and Oscar Vizquel.   Two them are definitely HOFers if no PED involvement is discovered.   The question has raged as to whether we did enough to keep them originally and whether we did enough to bring them back later in their careers.    I have ALWAYS been about how HOFers make your franchise.   Living in St. Louis and seeing the monuments around there I can imagine my grandkids at Progressive Field climbing around on statues of Thome and Vizquel and, had things broken differently for their careers, statues of Ramirez, Albert Belle and Carlos Baerga.  I still hold hope that Vizquel and Thome go in as Indians although that is far from a sure thing.   Still, they made their name and fame in Cleveland so I can hope that common sense wins out and they go in as Indians.

But what does all this have to do with Julio Franco?   Well, the recent discussion about Ichiro and the Pete Rose hit record brings something up that I have written about before:  Does Julio Franco beling in the HOF?   Well 3000 hits is still a good indicator of HOF status and if you count Franco's two years in Japan and one year in Korea he as 3028 hits.   That doesn't even count his one season in the Mexican League.    So if we are going to have a discussion about Ichiro being the all-time hits leader then I think the veterans committee, when the time is right,  should have a serious discussion about putting Julio Franco in the Hall of Fame.   Hey, I don't know if he would even go in as an Indian and the Indians could have secured that if they would have signed and played him those three years.   I know a lot of this is on Franco as he followed the money (and the guaranteed playing time) outside of the US.   Instead of taking a minor league deal or having to wait and hope he got a late contract (see Marlon Byrd this year) he took good money and went to play overseas.   Nonetheless, I think these stats count.  His history shows that had he been in the majors those four years he played outside the country he could have probably gotten to 3000 hits.   Just wish the Indians, in his case and others, would have done more to secure these guys getting into the HOF with the Indian "C" on their bronze non-talking heads!

In my book Julio Franco is a HOFer.   Maybe the Ichiro hit record discussion will bring light to Julio Franco's status, as well.   Let's hope so and let's hope he goes in as an Indian.

Reporting Draft Bonuses

Announcing draft signings is quite the art.   Leaking SELECTED draft bonuses is part of that art.  

That is why I am not surprised we have so much information so early on the bonuses of MOST of the guys we have signed in the first 10 rounds.

It is also why I am not surprised that we know NOTHING about Connor Capel's bonus and, for that matter, Michael Tinsley's bonus. 

My guess is that the Indians are in hot and heavy negotiations with Nolan Jones.   If his 'advisor' knew how much the Indians had spent on their picks it would give Jones a good idea of what they had to sign him.  

So, let's run a couple of scenarios.

(1) The Indians signed Capel for significantly over his slot.   Well, Jones could use that as leverage to get, say, a very high percentage over his slot.   It might also make him aware how much pool is left to sign him with the end result being that he would likely ask for all of it, leaving the Indians with nothing for flyers.  

(2) The Indians signed Capel to close to slot..   In this case Jones would realize that he could ask the Indians for a lot more money as they would have much more to spend.

But what if the Indians had some guys to sign way over slot from rounds 11-40?  In that case they would want to be coy about their draft pool excess so they would have to hold back a couple of signing bonuses until Jones signed at which point he would realize that the Indians had more excess than what they gave him.

This is all conjecture but, in some ways, this is how the game is played.  What kid would want to give up ANY money so his future team could sign another prospect.  I can see the conversation:  "Hey, Nolan, we have an extra million that we can add to your bonus but, instead, we only want to give you $600,000 over slot so we can give the other $400,000 to Ben Baird.   Don't mind that he is a HS shortstop like you.   We still love you best.".   So they work Jones with a number that is based on what was leaked to the media about the other bonuses and letting him know that Tinsley and Capel signed for over slot, but not how much over slot.   Jones doesn't even have to do the math.  It is being done for them by maybe every Tribe chatgroup in the US. 

This only works if they know Jones really wants to sign and just have to manage his bonus or if they don't give a crap if he signs because they have contingency signings in place from the later rounds to offset the loss of Jones.  In this case they offer Jones what they can afford to give him over slot and, if he doesn't sign, give that money to one or two extra guys besides the ones they already have targeted in rounds 11-40.

So, I think the Indians have played this perfectly so far.   The key will be getting Jones at the INDIANS' number, not at Jones' number.

I imagine that if I had told each of you before the draft we could have gotten the following guys at the slots below and NOT gone over our bonus pool plus 5% you all would have been ecstatic. [ Note that I am using the player's rank, not the slot they were actually drafted at].

14th selection: 19th best player (Jones)
55th selection: 30th best player (Benson)
72nd selection: 62nd best player (Capel)
92nd selection: 65the best player (Ice)
122nd selection: 141st best player (Baird)
152nd selection: 148th best player (Crowe(
182nd pick: 184th best player (Beiber)
212th pick: 204th best player (Civale)
242nd pick: 235th best player (Calica)
272nd pick: 236th best player (Clemmer)
302nd pick: 254th best player (Cantu)
332nd pick: 294th best player (Tinsley)

Obviously this is only one publication's (Baseball America) ranking.   But using these rankings they would have gone AT LEAST 12 rounds into the draft and gotten a more highly ranked player for each of their draft slots (except Jones, who was just a couple of places below his slot).   Maybe not drafted in that order, but, nonetheless, more value than what they should have gotten for the slot AND didn't have to go over their bonus pool to do it.

If they got all of the above done it would be a very good draft.   Any more than that (read: other flyers left in rounds 11-40) and it would be their best overall draft in my memory.

Let the dreaming begin.

Draft pool update

I have updated the signings and bonus information below.

We still don't have signing information on Cantu and Capel.   However, by my calculations we have over $1,000,000 excess at this point.  Let's assume that Cantu signed for $50,000 over slot and Capel signed for $250,000 over slot.

If these numbers are correct we have about $750,000 left to sign Jones.   Now, remember included in that is the 4.99% excess.   If we don't sign Jones we lose about $50,000 of that excess (5% of his 1.2 million bonus). 

So, if we don't sign Jones we get his draft selection back next year and we have a huge excess to spend on picks after the top 10 rounds.   

So, the question is, would I rather have Jones or Baird, Wil Crowe and one of Studstill or Alvarez.

Right now, if those were my choices I would take Baird, Crowe and one of the two HS pitchers.

Time will tell.

I know this is an Indians' blog but....

...let's have a timeout to applaud the Cavaliers.   Besides the obvious excess that we don't want to teach our kids to expect out of life, for those of us who are raising student/athletes this has to be one of the best examples I have ever seen in sports of the old axiom, there is no "I" in T-E-A-M.   Yeah, LeBron James was at the center, and ever the first two layers away from the center, of it all.  However, if you look beyond that, here is what you have:

Ty Lue -  We will likely never know (well, at least until the inevitable book/movie combo come out) what really went on.  Was it that Lue did his best Phil Jackson impersonation and cajoled his players into doing what needed to be done to win or was it the players scripting what needed to be done and then buying into it.   I would think more of the latter with a touch of the former.   We will never know if David Blatt could have pulled this off but my guess is that he couldn't, especially if the latter scenario was what turned the tide.

Timofey Mosgov - Here is a guy who was at the center of the finals last year, literally.   However, this year everyone learned that you can't beat the Warriors with old school center Mosgov on the floor.  He is still a very good player, just not in today's ultra-quick NBA.   He took his demotion/benching like a man and didn't blow it all up by being a baby.   He did what was for the greater good.

Matthew Dellavadova - See Mosgov, but in the finals.   Delly just couldn't hang with Warriors Splash brothers.   Not a knock against him as few players can.   And he didn't pout.  He supported his team.

Mo Williams -  Here is a guy who started at the beginning of the year and eventually had to morph into being the point guard of garbage time.   Yet he didn't mess up the chemistry and got some meaningful (albeit rust-laden and less than fully productive) minutes in the finals. 

Channing Frye - He stepped up when needed in the early rounds and then, finding he wasn't productive in the finals, sat with dignity and cheered his teammates.

Dantay Jones - Nothing new for him, but he led by attitude in how to be a bench player who is seldom called on but, in the one moment he is, be productive.   You can't teach that, you have to learn it by experience and Jones, although you can't quantify it, taught his teammates above how to act.

Kyrie Irving - Here you have a superstar who learned when to take charge and when to stand around and let LeBron do it.  This was CRUCIAL to coming back from that 3-1 deficit, not just in the last 3 pointer.   A big shoutout to his teammates, including LeBron, for letting Kyrie cook when he had it going. 

Tristan Thompson - It has been said over and over but how many centers can guard the MVP shooting guard of the league?   I think the answer is "one" and maybe, in all-time NBA playoff history, the answer is that same number.   He changed his role as needed for this team, even hitting a couple of mid-range jumpers.   In the last game he was more noticeable for his defense and getting loose ball fouls than in his offensive rebounding.   But, overall, he was a force on the boards, on court defense, on blocking shots and on helping his team as needed.

Kevin Love - Here is my teamwork MVP of the series.   He TOTALLY morphed his game.   Once he found that he was having trouble scoring outside he went inside and scored.   When Thompson was pulled away from the basket he upped his rebounding, doing a generally good job but being a beast at the end, especially in the last game.   For kids who want to know how to play the game, just look at Love.   While his 3-pointers weren't going in, he found another way, rebounding, to impact the game...and his defense was always pedal to the metal, at least for him.

J R Smith - Here is my #2 in voting in the teamwork MVP.   Known as a scorer and as a hot head, he scored early in the playoffs and, for the most part, controlled his emotions for the good of the team.   In the finals, when his shot deserted him due to the change in team approach and the team he was playing against,  he defended like a fiend and when the outside shot wasn't working, he took it to the hole and dished off for some dunks to change it up.    But most of all it was his defense and his ability to control his temper that made him my #2.   He showed that putting yourself aside and doing what the team needs, even if it means a total makeover in your game overnight, is possible if THAT is what your team needs. 

Iman Shumpert - While he underperformed in the finals in my estimation, he still knew his role and made as many plays as he could.    If one player was going to be replaced next year my guess is that the most expendable would be Shumpert.   Still, if they keep him he knows what he has to become great at to give the Cavs a chance to repeat next year.   If he focuses on those things and learns from his first finals experience and dedicates himself, he should be stellar next year.   Heaven knows, he has enough role models on this team to show him what can happen if you put the team first.

Notice that this long blog post has said nothing so far about LeBron.   Because there is nothing that a pure basketball mortal like me can say.   He simply did what needed to be done, including having his beat up body make free throws when they really mattered.  When he needed to block shots he did.  When he needed to rebound, he did.  When he needed a 3, he got it.  Actually, the one spot that he didn't perform in was when he drove.  He dished off too much.  But he was trying to keep his team involved and negate the 3-man collapses on him when he drove.   I don't know that he had to deal with that type of pressure all year.  Next year that won't be a problem.  He now knows how to deal with that!   While others on this team were great role players and teammates, LeBron was a great leader and doer.   When people step out of the way to allow the leader to get it done, that leader has to get it done.   Steph Curry didn't do that.   LeBron has done it again and again and again...and again.  Curry, from this experience, needs to learn that it is not all about your shooting or your driving and making acrobatic shots.  The true leading scorers, the Oscar Robertsons, the Jerry Wests, the John Havliceks, the Magic Johnsons, the Michael Jordans, those guys do it all and do different things at different times when that one particular thing is needed the most by their team.  Curry needs to learn that...hopefully he learns it right after the Cavaliers compete their 3-peat.    Interestingly on the Warriors, the guy who knows that the best is Damond Green.   He was my teamwork MVP for the Warriors. 

Can this team repeat, or 3-peat?  Who knows.   But they have given us two great finals in a row and our first major professional sports championship in 52 years.   For a Cleveander that is enough.  We'll soak it in and let the future take care of itself.  

Now back to baseball.   Did I mention that the Indians were still in first place?  Go Tribe.

Signings update and an interesting factoid

I will continue to update the signings information below when new signings occur.    I will also keep updating the draft pool budget information when something occurs of significance there.

Interesting factoid:  Tomorrow the Cavaliers, Indians, Captains, Aeros and Clippers go for 3 wins in a row.   The Cavaliers and Captains get championships with wins (the Captains 'championship' may actually only be a second place finish but it would qualify them for the playoffs) and the Indians, Aeros and Clippers, with wins, try to keep momentum going that had been slowed down by recent loss streaks.  If they all win tomorrow they would likely all (the Clippers would have to also have a loss by Indianapolis), on the same day, be the top teams in their leagues/divisions.

What a day it would be if all these teams won tomorrow.   Maybe the greatest day in Cleveland sports history.  Let's keep our fingers crossed.   It is about time this city has a good run of luck.

Draft pool update

As I had suggested on Saturday, Benson would have to sign for $2.5 million AT THE MOST in order for us to have a chance to sign Jones and Capel.    Well, he apparently did sign for that much but remember, in order for us to have the ability to sign both Capel and Jones, we will need help from everywhere in the first 10 rounds.   Well, we seem to be getting a little help from everyone else in the draft but will it be enough to increase our pool excess to sign Jones, Capel and Cantu?  Here are the numbers:

Benson: Pool: $2.934 million; actual bonus: $2.5 million; $434,000 savings
Nolan Jones: Pool: $1,159,200; actual bonus: $2.25 million; $1,090,800 over budget
Logan Ice Pool: $892,200; actual bonus: $$850,000; $42,200 savings
Aaron Civale Pool: $655,200; actual bonus: $625,000; $30,200 savings
Shane Beiber Pool: $482,500; actual bonus: 420,000; $52,500 savings 
Conner Capel Pool: 361,300; actual bonus:$361,300; $0 savings
Ulysses Cantu Pool: $270,300; actual bonus: $270,300; $0 savings
Michael Tinsley Pool: $202,900; actual bonus: $175,000; $27,300 savings
Andrew Lantrip Pool: $178,700; actual bonus: $125,000; $53,700 savings
Hosea Nelson Pool: $166,700; actual bonus: $125,000; $41,700 savings
Samad Taylor Pool: $156,600; actual bonus: $125,000; $31,600 savings
Total savings (counting $367,100 (4.99%) over budget without a penalty) $1,080,300 extra to spend so far.

NOTE: By this calculation, if we don't sign any guys after the 10th round for more than $100,000, we would still be over our budget by about $10,000.   Must have made a math error somewhere or Jones' bonus is a little high.

Draft signing update

Here is the most recent update I can piece together about draft signings for Indians players:

Will Benson - In Cleveland for physical - Will sign for $2.5 million.
Nolan Jones - No word yet -likely to go down to the wire as this will likely require a WAY over slot bonus and we won't know how much we have for a while
Logan Ice - Signed to underslot bonus
Aaron Civale - Signed to underslot bonus
Shane Bieber - Still in NCAA playoffs with UC Santa Barbara, can't sign yet
Connor Capel - Signed, bonus unknown yet
Ulysses Cantu - Signed, slot bonus
Michael Tinsley - Signed to underslot bonus
Andrew Lantrip - Signed to underslot bonus
Hosea Nelson - Signed to underslot bonus
Samad Taylor - Signed to slightly underslot bonus
Andrew Calica - Senior - still in NCCA playoffs with UC Santa Barbara - can't sign yet
Zac Plesac - Signed to $100,000 contract - currently out with TJ surgery
Gavin Collins - Signed to $100,000 contract
Mitch Longo - signed to $100,000 contract
Zack Smith - No word yet
Ben Krauth - Signed for $1,000 and is heading to MV
Trenton Brooks - Signed for $100,000
Raymond Burgos - signed to $100,000 contract
Dakody Clemmer - signed to $100,000 contract
Ben Baird - No word yet
Wil Crowe - RS sophomore coming of TJ surgery - likely to go back to college next year unless money is left over from first 10 rounds.
Mason Studstill - No word yet
Michael Letkewicz - signed for $1000
Skylar Arias - signed for $50,000
Jonathan Laureno - signed for $50,000
Tanner Tully - Signed for $100,000
Nelson Alvarez - No word yet
Jamal Rutledge - Signed, $50,000
Spencer Steer - No word yet
Ryder Ryan - Signed for $50,000
Chris Farish - No word yet
Kramer Robertson - Reportedly going back to school for senior year
Blake Sabol - No word yet
Auston Shenton - No word yet
Armani Smith - No word yet
Andrew Baker - No word yet
Mike Amditis - No word yet
Jacob DeVries - No word yet
Pedro Alfonseca - No word yet
Danny Sinatro - No word yet

Post Draft Summary

OK, we are getting further away from the end of the draft and signings are starting to come in.   So, let's talk about how this draft looks overall.   This analysis may change if guys don't sign but let's assume right now that all of our main targets sign.

Rounds 1-10 - For the first time in a while the Indians didn't take low cost filler in the top 10 rounds.   I think their haul in these rounds is potentially very solid for a team picking 14th, especially given that their only extra pick was after the 2nd round.  The key will, of course, be to sign Benson, Jones, Capel and Cantu and to sign Jones, Capel and Cantu you will have to be stealing bonus money (collectively) from the slot values of the other 8 guys in the top 10 rounds.  We will see if that is even possible.

Rounds 11-40 - In order to sign any real good prospects here (i.e., guys who are good, solid prospects right now) we need to have money left over from the first 10 rounds.   Given that they drafted a new low (for Cleveland) of THREE college seniors, I could see this draft resulting in the Indians signing the fewest players they have for years.   Why?  There aren't that many sure signings in this group and a number of guys are flyers who we probably won't have money for.  And, of course, there are the ever-present lowly rated HS guys who won't sign for $100,000 and will go to college instead.    Obviously the guys you would like to sign would be Baird and Crowe.   I don't think we will have the extra money for either.

So, let the signing and projecting begin. 

2016 Indians Draft - Day 3 Analysis

OK, here we are at the end of Day 3.   Let's look at some of the near certainties of rounds 11-40.

1. Any guy signed here has to be signed for $100,000 or less.   If they are signed for over 100k that difference has to be applied to our draft budget.  

2. A flyer is someone who has dropped in the draft.   His talent slot is much greater than the slot he was drafted in.   Teams draft flyers in these rounds.

3. Teams draft a lot of organizational players in these rounds.  These are usually college seniors or college juniors who don't want to finish their college careers.

Before we get into the detail I wanted to cut to the chase and give you my summary of our 3rd day draft:  This looks similar to previous years.   I think the way the first two days set up if Nolan Jones or Connor Capel doesn't sign, maybe we will have a little money to sign some of the flyers we drafted in rounds 11-40.   If our first 11 picks sign, I doubt any of the talented players (guys rated in the top 200 by Baseball America) from the last 30 rounds sign with the Indians.   So I hold by my previous analysis: We set up this draft to have extra money to sign Jones, Capel and maybe, to a lesser extent, Cantu.  I think Benson will sign for below slot but I don't think if we sign Jones to an overslot bonus that we will have enough money to sign Capel, let alone Capel and any of the flyers we drafted in rounds 11-40.    If we don't sign Jones, look for us to make serious runs at some of the better prospects we drafted in these later rounds.   The details follow below.

Normally, if you see a flyer drafted in these rounds it is for two connected reasons:

1. The team knows it is likely to have an excess of their draft budget left after the first 10 rounds

AND

2. The team is uncertain if it can sign a guy from the first 10 rounds who will want more than their draft slot.

To be more clear, many of these flyers are drafted just in case this single player (or a couple of players) don't sign.   They then take this excess money (only the money ABOVE what is slotted for that spot in the draft, not the amount allotted for that slot) and spread it around to flyers in these later rounds.   Most of these flyers go unsigned as teams find a way to spend all of their draft budget on top 10 round guys.   Sometimes, though, a flyer or two gets signed as teams have extra money and/or the flyer drops his draft demands.   Luke Wakamatsu from last year's draft was a flyer who signed.  Nick Madrigal from last year's draft was a flyer who did not sign.

Now that we have that in place, let's take a look at rounds 11-40. 

Re-drafts - The Indians drafted a couple of flyers they had draft, as flyers, out of high school.   Wil Crowe and Andrew Calica were projected to go higher in the draft.

Catchers -  The Indians drafted 3 high school catchers in these rounds (Zack Smith, Blake Sabol and Mike Amditis) all flyers.   Likely none of them will sign and I think they were drafted as backups in case Ice and Tinsley from rounds 3 and 7 do not sign.

Other flyers - Besides Crowe, some other flyers the Indians drafted include Ben Baird, Austin Shenton, Andrew Baker.   All these are HS players and none of them have a high likelihood of signing.  However, note that Baird is a SS, the position that Nolan Jones, a difficult sign for the Indians, plays.   I think Baird is our backup if Jones doesn't sign.

High School Players unlikely to sign - Look, as a HS player you have to have confidence that you can get more than $100,000 after being in college for 1-3 years.  I have never understood why the Indians draft these guys as they rarely sign them and, when they do, the kids rarely end up as even long-term minor leaguers in our system.  Some of the lowly rated HS players they drafted this year include: Samad Taylor, Raymond Burgos, Mason Studstill, Nelson Alvarez, Spencer Steer,  Armani Smith, Pedro Alfonseca and Danny Sinatro.  Once in a while they sign one of these guys to an above slot bonus (Shawn Morimando comes to mind) and they blossom into a really good prospect.  So, if they sign one or more of these guys maybe there is some hope. 

Junior College Players - Dakody Clemmer is the standout here.   The Indians have had good luck signing junior college guys who are OK draft prospects (Ryan Perez last year).  I think they sign one of these guys.

College pitchers - It is in these rounds that the Indians have become good at finding middle reliever prospects like Shawn Armstrong, Ben Heller, Austin Adams, etc.   When you think of this year's draftees the guys who seem to fit this profile include Zach Plesac, Ben Krauth, Mike Letkewicz, Tanner Tully, Ryder Ryan, Chris Farish and Jacob DeVries (an Air Force pitcher).  Many times these guys don't even sign, returning to college for another year.  Sometimes they do sign.  If you see one of these guys sign, for me, they instantly become sleeper prospects to keep an eye on down the road.

2016 Draft Analysis - Days 1 and 2

OK, any of you who know me know that I am a draft guy first and foremost, prospect guy second and ML analysis guy 3rd. 

So let's start with an axiom that experts in the draft put out every time a draft pick is questioned by the fans:

"Teams like who they like".

OK, we get that.  So THEY like who they like.   But does that have to mean they should PAY the guys they like a lot more than what the consensus is on that guy's talent? 

 So, from that, here is my draft axiom:  Like who you like but draft who you can sign with the intent of doing two things:

1. Not going over your draft budget so you don't have to pay a penalty and, potentially, use a first round pick in next year's draft.

2. Have enough left over from your draft budget after the first 10 rounds to sign a flyer or two in rounds 11-40.

There are three ways that teams usually handle the first 10 rounds. 

1. Draft guys that you think will all sign at their slot value

2. Draft a few guys in the first 10 rounds (like college seniors) who will sign for peanuts ($1000) and then draft a combination of the best available guys and guys who will sign for slot in the remaining picks.

3. Draft a #1 pick who will sign for way below slot and use that money to sign other picks who will require above slot bonuses to sign.

When I look at these three scenarios, the only one I see that fits with the Indians first 10 rounds this year is #3...and only if their first round pick signs for much less than his slot or some of the better talents they drafted later sign for slot value.

Let's look over the picks and see where the money should be saved and spent.

Will Benson is a great prospect in the old scouting sense.   He is tall, incredibly athletic, and a potential 5-tool guy.  But he is a consensus supplemental first round pick, not a 14.  They should be able to get him to sign for roughly $2.5 million, a savings of over $400,000 which can be used elsewhere but, for this kid, MUCH more than his current talent level and likelihood of making an impact at the ML level would dictate.

On the other hand Nolan Jones will probably require more than the $1.2 million that his draft spot is valued at to sign his pick.  So Benson's extra money (and more) should go to Jones.  

Logan Ice should get money about his draft level.   Let's say they pay this defense-first college junior about $50,000 below slot and give that money to Jones.

Aaron Civale - This guy was drafted at slot 92 and was ranked about 200 in the country.  I think they should be able to sign him for less than his slot, maybe $150,000 less. 

So, if the above works out we have an additional $600,000 to give Jones, meaning his bonus would be about $2 million, which should be enough, I hope, to get him signed.

Civale is a 3rd round pick.  For picks through the 3rd round you get a compensation pick next year if you fail to sign them.   However, you lose their slot bonus from your budget this year.   For rounds 4-10 if you fail to sign a guy you don't get a draft pick next year AND you lose their slot bonus from your budget this year.

Bieber was their 4th round pick.   Like Civale he is a pitchability guy.  He was rated lower than the 122 slot they will sign him at.  In order to make this draft work for the Indians they will have to sign him for at least $100,000 less than what his slot is valued at.  Why?  Let's look at the rest of their class.

Conner Capel - In steps our first sleeper/flyer of the draft.  By that I mean a guy who we got at a much lower slot than his talent would indicate.   This is usually a sign that the guy wants a lot of money so let's figure he wants more than his #60 ranking would indicate.   Maybe say $1.5 million.  You can argue about the actual amount but clearly it appears the Indians will need more than his slot to sign Capel.  I estimate we will likely need close to $750,000 more than slot to sign him.  Normally when you have two guys like Capel and Jones taken this early in the draft, you draft a number of college seniors who sign for $1000 or so and you bank their bonus money.  However, the Indians drafted ZERO college seniors in the first 10 rounds.   So, on paper, they have no guys who they can sign for peanuts like they can college seniors.  So, I think they will be nickel and diming savings on the remaining top 10 round guys.   Let's see where that money is coming from

Ulysses Cantu - Here is a guy who was a top 60 guy this winter and fell to the mid 200s.  So, to sign him we save no money.  In fact, Bieber's $100,000 and more will have to go to sign Cantu, IMHO.  So now we are two picks down from Capel and have saved no money for his bonus, and are actually $100,000 in the red towards more bonus money for him. 

Let's continue:

Michael Tinsley was drafted at slot 212 and was a 294 ranked player. In my opinion this is just a guy who the Indians liked a little more than his slot.  There is no savings here.

Andrew Lantrip - Here is a guy who was a top 140 guy this winter but his ranking fell to 422 and we tapped him at 242.  Maybe we save $100,000 here vs slot, but probably will save less than $50,000.

So now we are down to our last two picks in the top 10 rounds, the only picks left in this draft where you can save money you can spend on other picks.   How much money can we save here?

Well, Hosea Nelson is a second year junior college guy.  He can go to college for his junior year and hope to get drafted higher next year.  He has options so getting him to sign for peanuts will be difficult and, at this point, his draft slot is valued so low (around $200,000) that there is not much savings there.  Let's say we can save $50,000 on him as he does have leverage to go back to school and his slot is not that high.

Samad Taylor is a HS kid who was not ranked in BA's top 500.  High school kids drafted in the top 10 rounds usually require at least slot money to sign.  You just can't get a kid who has a college scholarship to a good college (Arizona) in hand to sign for $150,000 or so unless he REALLY doesn't want to go to college and, in that case, he will likely NOT sign for below slot.

Summary - I think the way this draft breaks down we don't have enough money to sign Jones and Capel unless they both sign for slot.  Ditto for Cantu (over slot a little) and Taylor (at least at slot).    Plus, we won't have any money left in later rounds to pay HS players who fell during the draft any more than $100,000, meaning almost none of them will sign. 

I really hope the Indians know what they are doing.   To the pundits with the axiom "Teams like who they like" I say this.  While that is true you have to be able to sign who you like.  If the Indians can sign Benson, Jones and Capel and not get into draft tax hell, I think this is a good, solid draft for them.  If, in fact, they lose one of the three of these guys and do not have a backup plan in later rounds because they haven't saved enough money because they didn't draft any college seniors early, this draft is going to be lacking in talent. 

One of the most interesting drafts in years for the Indians.   They don't really need another outfielder but Benson is EXACTLY the type of high risk, high reward prospect that, if he hits, will make this draft.  The Indians do need catching depth in the minors but do you spend full slot bonuses on medium prospect college catchers in the top 10 rounds?  The Indians have rarely done this so it is interesting they drafted a college catcher not only once but twice in the top 10 rounds this year.   They have drafted very little top pitching talent this year and, looking at the draft reviews, maybe drafted three future pro middle relievers in their 3 college pitchers drafted in the top 10 rounds?  Historically the Indians have not settled for pitchability college guys in their picks in the first 10 rounds so it is interesting they did it this year.   Plus not drafting a college senior in the top 10 rounds while not being unheard of is a dangerous way to go if you don't know some of your 5-10 round guys will sign for MUCH less than their slot.   We'll see how it all turns out.  We are Indians' fans.  We always hope for the best. 

On to day 3.

The post-Marlon Byrd Cleveland Indians

Of the multitude of minor league free agent signings the Indians made, I like the Marlon Byrd signing the best.  

Why?

Because the guy actually was hitting somewhat at the time of his 162 game suspension. 

It's no secret that I wanted Urshela at 3rd and Naquin in the outfield and Ramirez somewhere on the field.   

Still, here we are in the beginning of June and it looks like the Indians will stay in contention beyond when the Cavaliers/ season ends in about two weeks.  And this as we approach the end of maybe our toughest stretch of the season, considering the records of the teams we have played in the past week or two.

Bringing up Naquin (he had an 8 pitch walk and a 6-pitch HR tonight) should set the modus operandi for the rest of the season.  

Send Uribe to the bench.   Send Rajai Davis to the bench.   These guys are valuable as bench players and in the locker room.  Promote Urshela and have him split time with Ramirez at 3rd with Ramirez also getting play in LF.   If you need IF help bring up Gonzalez.   You still have relief pitching help and some starting pitching depth of that comes into play.   The OF is a little more thin but I still have hope that Bradley Zimmer can help by August at the latest. 

This team is 29-24 and 1/2 game out of first place in the Central but we are the Cleveland Indians.   We should build from within and I think there are resources in the minors that we should try out first. 

BTW, the farm system is now 134-83 which, by my calculator is a .618 winning percentage.   Mike Papi has 'earned' a promotion to AA and there is a lot to wish on in the minors at every level so far.   Not that it is all polished up or anything but there is a lot to like, some of which may make it to Cleveland this year. 

Go Tribe!