So, the Indians are getting Coco Crisp. Good for them. He can be on the post-season roster if we get him, as expected, tomorrow.
9/1/16 UPDATE: Mission accomplished. Colt Hynes isn't even a prospect. About the right price to save Oakland $500,000 for the rest of the year. If this isn't life imitating art I can see the Cleveland front office calling the club president asking if they can have money to make the trade just like in Moneyball.
But hold on. It is a trade, for a one-month rental (plus post-season, if one is there for the Tribe). He is hitting .234 for the year, .239 against righties.
As far as left handed hitter outfielders who can play in the post-season we have Chisenhall and Naquin. Obviusly Almonte and Ramirez, switchhitters both, are out as the latter can't play in the post-season and the former is playing 3B.
Still, this leaves me with two questions:
1. How much did we give up to get him?
and
2. How much did we give up to get him?
36 year old outfielders who are destined for free agency and who is have a below-average major league season who we are getting as a spare part should come very cheap...like for paying the guy's salary. For Ricardo Rincon the A's gave us the immortal Marshall McDougall. Yeah, that kind of deal.
So, even if we give up a "B" prospect it is too much. MacDougall was a "C" prospect, at best.
For example, a "C" prospect is Yoiber Marquina or maybe Cameron Hill. I have heard talk it could be Gabriel Mejia. He is, to me, a "B" prospect. He is too much to pay for a one-month rental. Yes, he is not an "A" prospect despite his gaudy batting average and stolen base numbers over the last 3 years. He is still in rookie ball and is not a young Dominican, by any means. Still, he has upside.
So, after our overpay for Andrew Miller, should we overpay even a cent for Crisp? Don't know the answer to that but, on paper, Crisp is a wing and a prayer. For that, you don't overpay even a penny.
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
September Callups
As we approach Sept. 1st when the major league rosters can be increased from 25 to 40 players, there is always a lot of speculation about who will be recalled from the minors.
There are really three types of teams at this point in the season: teams fighting for division titles, teams fighting for a wild card and teams that are out of the race for playoff spots.
When you are in the latter category your mission is simple: balance your minor leaguers playing in a playoff atmosphere in the minors vs giving them their first taste of the big leagues to get the jitters out if they make the majors the next season. Teams fall on the either side of that fence even though recently it appears that ML teams value minor league playoff experience over being in the majors with a bunch of guys just playing out the string. Sometimes teams will hand out 'thank you' callups to veteran minor leaguers who have had good seasons and toiled in the minors for years without getting ANY big league playing time.
For the other two categories above, the equation is a much different one: which player(s) can we bring up from the minors who will help us win in September and, possibly, help us in the playoffs if we have spots on our 25 man playoff roster due to having guys on the 60-day DL. For these teams, leaving guys in the minors to get playoff experience is not an issue. Can you help us? OK, you are in the majors.
Right now the Indians are in the first category. They are in first place and, although there is A LOT of season left, they look pretty good to win the AL Central. So, clearly, they are looking for guys who will be able to help them in September AND in the playoffs. With that in mind, here is my assessment on which players they should bring up:
Pitchers:
Here is the thinking. You either bring up relievers already on the 40 man roster to eat innings or you bring up starters and put them in the bullpen if you think there stuff will play up in relief as the league won't have 'a book' on them yet. I don't think we have any of the latter but we do have some guys with ML experience who are already on the 40-man roster. Here they are:
Austin Adams
Shawn Armstrong
Joe Colon
Shawn Morimando
Ryan Merritt
My guess is that you will see Shawn Armstrong and Colon in early September and Adams, Morimando and Merritt after Columbus finishes its playoff run.
As I said, I don't see any other pitchers in the minors who we could bring up
Position Players
The same match applies: Can you help me in September and/or can you help me in the playoffs. Teams have brought up speedsters and minor leaguers with big time power, thinking that as a pinch hitter they may help as, respectively, a pinch runner or a pinch hitter. Here are some thoughts:
Giovanny Urshela - He is a plus defender at 3B. Having him on the roster would increase the size of the rotation for 3B and OF. Even if he didn't hit he might still be valuable as a late inning defensive replacement.
Bradley Zimmer - He has good speed and would be a good pinch runner and defensive replacement. Of course he is not on the 40 man roster so we would have to remove someone but with Colin Cowgill available to be DFA'd, that shouldn't present a problem. BTW Zimmer also go a bump in his performance this summer when he was promoted to AAA so maybe lightning can strike here, as well. Even if it doesn't, Zimmer can still impact the game with his legs and his glove/arm combination.
Erik Gonzalez - With Michael Martinez in the majors I just think you leave Gonzalez in the minors and bring him up at the end of the season.
Yandy Diaz - Another guy who would require Cowgill to be removed, he might be a good guy to have around when you need a pinch hitter as his glove is suspect but his bat looks good. He is a GREAT lightning in a bottle guy, someone who could go through all of Sept and Oct. and give you great ABs because the league doesn't know him
Jesus Aguilar - Like Diaz, a guy without a glove who might be a good ML pinch hitter. Unlike Diaz, Aguilar IS on the 40-man roster AND he has a little big league experience.
Francisco Mejia - Don't laugh. He is the classic lightning in a bottle guy. I don't know his status for the being available for the Rule 5 this winter but, if he is, bringing up now instead of after the season makes more sense. Of course, he has to be able to throw as his throwing is important if he is going to be the catcher in any games.
There are really three types of teams at this point in the season: teams fighting for division titles, teams fighting for a wild card and teams that are out of the race for playoff spots.
When you are in the latter category your mission is simple: balance your minor leaguers playing in a playoff atmosphere in the minors vs giving them their first taste of the big leagues to get the jitters out if they make the majors the next season. Teams fall on the either side of that fence even though recently it appears that ML teams value minor league playoff experience over being in the majors with a bunch of guys just playing out the string. Sometimes teams will hand out 'thank you' callups to veteran minor leaguers who have had good seasons and toiled in the minors for years without getting ANY big league playing time.
For the other two categories above, the equation is a much different one: which player(s) can we bring up from the minors who will help us win in September and, possibly, help us in the playoffs if we have spots on our 25 man playoff roster due to having guys on the 60-day DL. For these teams, leaving guys in the minors to get playoff experience is not an issue. Can you help us? OK, you are in the majors.
Right now the Indians are in the first category. They are in first place and, although there is A LOT of season left, they look pretty good to win the AL Central. So, clearly, they are looking for guys who will be able to help them in September AND in the playoffs. With that in mind, here is my assessment on which players they should bring up:
Pitchers:
Here is the thinking. You either bring up relievers already on the 40 man roster to eat innings or you bring up starters and put them in the bullpen if you think there stuff will play up in relief as the league won't have 'a book' on them yet. I don't think we have any of the latter but we do have some guys with ML experience who are already on the 40-man roster. Here they are:
Austin Adams
Shawn Armstrong
Joe Colon
Shawn Morimando
Ryan Merritt
My guess is that you will see Shawn Armstrong and Colon in early September and Adams, Morimando and Merritt after Columbus finishes its playoff run.
As I said, I don't see any other pitchers in the minors who we could bring up
Position Players
The same match applies: Can you help me in September and/or can you help me in the playoffs. Teams have brought up speedsters and minor leaguers with big time power, thinking that as a pinch hitter they may help as, respectively, a pinch runner or a pinch hitter. Here are some thoughts:
Giovanny Urshela - He is a plus defender at 3B. Having him on the roster would increase the size of the rotation for 3B and OF. Even if he didn't hit he might still be valuable as a late inning defensive replacement.
Bradley Zimmer - He has good speed and would be a good pinch runner and defensive replacement. Of course he is not on the 40 man roster so we would have to remove someone but with Colin Cowgill available to be DFA'd, that shouldn't present a problem. BTW Zimmer also go a bump in his performance this summer when he was promoted to AAA so maybe lightning can strike here, as well. Even if it doesn't, Zimmer can still impact the game with his legs and his glove/arm combination.
Erik Gonzalez - With Michael Martinez in the majors I just think you leave Gonzalez in the minors and bring him up at the end of the season.
Yandy Diaz - Another guy who would require Cowgill to be removed, he might be a good guy to have around when you need a pinch hitter as his glove is suspect but his bat looks good. He is a GREAT lightning in a bottle guy, someone who could go through all of Sept and Oct. and give you great ABs because the league doesn't know him
Jesus Aguilar - Like Diaz, a guy without a glove who might be a good ML pinch hitter. Unlike Diaz, Aguilar IS on the 40-man roster AND he has a little big league experience.
Francisco Mejia - Don't laugh. He is the classic lightning in a bottle guy. I don't know his status for the being available for the Rule 5 this winter but, if he is, bringing up now instead of after the season makes more sense. Of course, he has to be able to throw as his throwing is important if he is going to be the catcher in any games.
Sunday, August 21, 2016
Final thoughts on the Olympics
First, baseball and softball in the Olympics? The only reason I have ever liked those sports in the Olympics is because the US is good at them and it means more medals.
This Olympics we had almost twice the number of medals as the next country! So, no, let's not add baseball and softball back in. I mean, why not just put American football in the Olympics?
One of the reasons that sports are not added to (or are removed from) the Olympics is because too few countries play them. The US, in this Olympics, won medals in 25 of the 39 sports contested. That seems about right to me and maybe a tad high. So, now, we don't need any other sports added that will up our medal count.
And what about going back to an all-amateur Olympics? So it won't be the best players in the world at their sports. It will be the best players who don't make a living playing that sport.
Look, over 100 countries participated in the Olympics that didn't win a single medal. Doesn't that seem a bit odd when the US won 121? It is just more of the haves and have-nots. Can't we find a way to level the playing field a little bit.
So, while we revel in the success of the good old USA in the Olympics, let's consider measures that open up the field instead of closing it up. This is not the Olympics of the US amateur hockey players playing against the veteran Russian team that was, for all practical purposes, a professional team. If it looks reasonable to do, let's think of going back to amateur-only participation. The only reason I can see not doing that is that maybe there are still a few countries (China? Cuba?) that have state-run programs whose athletes are banned from playing professionally somewhere due to ideological reasons. However, if that is not true and everyone has and chooses to use the opportunity to play professionally, maybe this should be amateur hour...once again
BTW, except for a wrestler here, a soccer team there and a track relay team that misfired...again, this was about the most perfect summer Olympics I can ever remember the US having. The people who were supposed to set records for medals did. The teams that were supposed to win, for the most part, won. And there seemed to be many more people the US didn't think were going to get medals who did compared to those who we thought would get medals who failed..some of them old guys like me!
So, great job USOC and all the NGBs out there. And thanks to the US athletes who, to almost the last one, showed that ANY kind of medal was a great accomplishment. That was a refreshing change from past Olympics where, if we didn't win, it was considered a tragedy. And thanks to all those who showed that the Olympic spirit was not just about medals.
See you all in 4 years!
This Olympics we had almost twice the number of medals as the next country! So, no, let's not add baseball and softball back in. I mean, why not just put American football in the Olympics?
One of the reasons that sports are not added to (or are removed from) the Olympics is because too few countries play them. The US, in this Olympics, won medals in 25 of the 39 sports contested. That seems about right to me and maybe a tad high. So, now, we don't need any other sports added that will up our medal count.
And what about going back to an all-amateur Olympics? So it won't be the best players in the world at their sports. It will be the best players who don't make a living playing that sport.
Look, over 100 countries participated in the Olympics that didn't win a single medal. Doesn't that seem a bit odd when the US won 121? It is just more of the haves and have-nots. Can't we find a way to level the playing field a little bit.
So, while we revel in the success of the good old USA in the Olympics, let's consider measures that open up the field instead of closing it up. This is not the Olympics of the US amateur hockey players playing against the veteran Russian team that was, for all practical purposes, a professional team. If it looks reasonable to do, let's think of going back to amateur-only participation. The only reason I can see not doing that is that maybe there are still a few countries (China? Cuba?) that have state-run programs whose athletes are banned from playing professionally somewhere due to ideological reasons. However, if that is not true and everyone has and chooses to use the opportunity to play professionally, maybe this should be amateur hour...once again
BTW, except for a wrestler here, a soccer team there and a track relay team that misfired...again, this was about the most perfect summer Olympics I can ever remember the US having. The people who were supposed to set records for medals did. The teams that were supposed to win, for the most part, won. And there seemed to be many more people the US didn't think were going to get medals who did compared to those who we thought would get medals who failed..some of them old guys like me!
So, great job USOC and all the NGBs out there. And thanks to the US athletes who, to almost the last one, showed that ANY kind of medal was a great accomplishment. That was a refreshing change from past Olympics where, if we didn't win, it was considered a tragedy. And thanks to all those who showed that the Olympic spirit was not just about medals.
See you all in 4 years!
Thursday, August 11, 2016
Baseball and Olympic Musings on August 11, 2016
Question: Do you think the families of retired baseball players can get the Olympic appeals committee to look at the cases of Pete Rose, Joe Jackson and Mark McGwire for the Hall of Fame? If they let a Russian swimmer who has been caught using PEDs two times to compete in an Olympics where a lot of Russian athletes have been banned for doping, maybe they can rationalize the above three players being in the HOF.
Here I was really thinking the Indians caught a break when they sent Frazier to the Yankees and then Zimmer got real hot at Columbus. Until yesterday when Zimmer got hit on the hand trying to bunt.
Sent this question into Paul Hoynes but I don't think he has answered it yet: Last year Lindor, as a rookie, reached double figures in sacrifices, home runs and stolen bases. I wonder when the last time that a rookie has reached double figures on these three incongruous statistical categories (i.e., people who hit HRs usually don't sacrifice much). Also, since Lindor reached those levels in about half a season, when was the last time that people had this high a level of HRs, stolen bases and sacrifices per AB as a rookie?
This has been an incredibly quiet August in terms of waiver trades. For the Indians, I just don't think there are players out there that they will trade for that (a) will help them win and (b) will be cheap enough (in prospects) to trade for. Clearly, though, we need some more offense as it now looks like we won't get Brantley back the entire season. I was holding out hope that he would be back by Sept. 1st and then we could coast to a division win as he got back in shape just in time for the playoffs. Now it doesn't look like that will happen.
Does it bother anyone else that Francisco Mejia is really playing sparingly during this hit streak? I know he is battling an injury but his infrequent play looks like the Indians are just playing him at times they KNOW he has a great likelihood of getting a hit and sitting him other games. Last weekend he didn't play either Saturday or Sunday when they had an off-day on Monday. If he is truly injured just DL him. The hit streak stays intact. If he is healthy enough to play MOST days, then play him most days. The hitting streak is a novelty. His development as a player, which comes from PLAYING, is more important. BTW, I know I have said this before but look at the guys with the longest hitting streaks in the history of the minor leagues. Most times they don't end up having any impact on the ML team at all.
We have seen that we can score 4-5 runs a game which is good when our starting pitching is good. However, when the starting pitching or the bullpen blows up, we don't seem to have the horses to do anything more than get close. So, we need to get the starting pitching back on track. We have everything else we need to compete.
Does it bother anyone else that Andrew Miller has been just mediocre since he has come to the Indians? It is interesting how the Yankees turned on a dime and traded someone who wasn't supposed to be tradeable. Now I know we overwhelmed the Yankees with our offer but if Miller is really hurt or burned out....um-um-um, will that ever stink!
Finally, in the category of don't EVER do that again, I was watching the end of the women's time trial cycling. The organizers had set up a covered area with three chairs marked "1", "2" and "3". From what I saw the current 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishers got to sit in those chairs. Unfortunately, as riders came in with better times the riders in these chairs were bumped to either lower numbers or out of the chairs entirely if they were currently in the "3" chair. So the American women, the last rider, won the race. In this tented area the woman who had been sitting in chair "1" and was so excited she might win a gold medal looked deflated as she had to vacate that top chair. What is worse is that the women in 3rd place put a towel over her face and dejectedly walked away as she lost her bronze medal and had been bumped down to the dreaded 4th place finish. The cameras caught all of this for the world to see. I have an idea for the IOC. Ban this type of thing. Everyone knows who is in what place in a race like this, the scenario being played in other summer Olympic sports and a lot of winter Olympic sports. People don't need to be sitting in chairs signifying the medal they may or may not get. Everyone knows this, the TV monitors show the current standings. Let's not embarrass people who just had their dreams smashed, dreams that came out of years of sweat.
Here I was really thinking the Indians caught a break when they sent Frazier to the Yankees and then Zimmer got real hot at Columbus. Until yesterday when Zimmer got hit on the hand trying to bunt.
Sent this question into Paul Hoynes but I don't think he has answered it yet: Last year Lindor, as a rookie, reached double figures in sacrifices, home runs and stolen bases. I wonder when the last time that a rookie has reached double figures on these three incongruous statistical categories (i.e., people who hit HRs usually don't sacrifice much). Also, since Lindor reached those levels in about half a season, when was the last time that people had this high a level of HRs, stolen bases and sacrifices per AB as a rookie?
This has been an incredibly quiet August in terms of waiver trades. For the Indians, I just don't think there are players out there that they will trade for that (a) will help them win and (b) will be cheap enough (in prospects) to trade for. Clearly, though, we need some more offense as it now looks like we won't get Brantley back the entire season. I was holding out hope that he would be back by Sept. 1st and then we could coast to a division win as he got back in shape just in time for the playoffs. Now it doesn't look like that will happen.
Does it bother anyone else that Francisco Mejia is really playing sparingly during this hit streak? I know he is battling an injury but his infrequent play looks like the Indians are just playing him at times they KNOW he has a great likelihood of getting a hit and sitting him other games. Last weekend he didn't play either Saturday or Sunday when they had an off-day on Monday. If he is truly injured just DL him. The hit streak stays intact. If he is healthy enough to play MOST days, then play him most days. The hitting streak is a novelty. His development as a player, which comes from PLAYING, is more important. BTW, I know I have said this before but look at the guys with the longest hitting streaks in the history of the minor leagues. Most times they don't end up having any impact on the ML team at all.
We have seen that we can score 4-5 runs a game which is good when our starting pitching is good. However, when the starting pitching or the bullpen blows up, we don't seem to have the horses to do anything more than get close. So, we need to get the starting pitching back on track. We have everything else we need to compete.
Does it bother anyone else that Andrew Miller has been just mediocre since he has come to the Indians? It is interesting how the Yankees turned on a dime and traded someone who wasn't supposed to be tradeable. Now I know we overwhelmed the Yankees with our offer but if Miller is really hurt or burned out....um-um-um, will that ever stink!
Finally, in the category of don't EVER do that again, I was watching the end of the women's time trial cycling. The organizers had set up a covered area with three chairs marked "1", "2" and "3". From what I saw the current 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishers got to sit in those chairs. Unfortunately, as riders came in with better times the riders in these chairs were bumped to either lower numbers or out of the chairs entirely if they were currently in the "3" chair. So the American women, the last rider, won the race. In this tented area the woman who had been sitting in chair "1" and was so excited she might win a gold medal looked deflated as she had to vacate that top chair. What is worse is that the women in 3rd place put a towel over her face and dejectedly walked away as she lost her bronze medal and had been bumped down to the dreaded 4th place finish. The cameras caught all of this for the world to see. I have an idea for the IOC. Ban this type of thing. Everyone knows who is in what place in a race like this, the scenario being played in other summer Olympic sports and a lot of winter Olympic sports. People don't need to be sitting in chairs signifying the medal they may or may not get. Everyone knows this, the TV monitors show the current standings. Let's not embarrass people who just had their dreams smashed, dreams that came out of years of sweat.
Saturday, August 6, 2016
AZL Indians - August 6, 2016
I am up late working and following the game on milb.com
I absolutely LOVE the team that is one the field tonight. All of these guys have potential to be true prospects down the road. Here is tonight's lineup
Samad Taylor
Elvis Perez
Nolan Jones
Jose Vicente
All these guys are currently hitting over .300 and all are young. This is an exciting top 4.
Will Benson
Oscar Gonzalez
Hosea Nelson
Ulysses Cantu
Connor Capel
4 of the 5 of these guys were top 10 round 2016 draft picks and Gonzalez is one of the gems in our system fresh out of the Dominican Republic. While the production may not always be there so far for this group of 5 guys I think there is a lot to dream on.
Pitching tonight was:
Justin Garcia (last year's draft pick coming back from injury)
Francisco Perez (our best starter this year)
Randy Marte
Again, a lot to dream on here with all these guys having upside.
Right now this team is locked into a 1-1 tie after 8 innings. Is it just me or is this team the most exciting, potential-wise, that we have ever had in the AZL league?
This would be a game I would love to see live. Do you think MILB will ever broadcast the AZL games live? I mean all it would take would be a stadium cam. With the MiLB box scores being updated faster this year than in the past, I wouldn't even need announcers and I could probably follow along with what was going on.
I absolutely LOVE the team that is one the field tonight. All of these guys have potential to be true prospects down the road. Here is tonight's lineup
Samad Taylor
Elvis Perez
Nolan Jones
Jose Vicente
All these guys are currently hitting over .300 and all are young. This is an exciting top 4.
Will Benson
Oscar Gonzalez
Hosea Nelson
Ulysses Cantu
Connor Capel
4 of the 5 of these guys were top 10 round 2016 draft picks and Gonzalez is one of the gems in our system fresh out of the Dominican Republic. While the production may not always be there so far for this group of 5 guys I think there is a lot to dream on.
Pitching tonight was:
Justin Garcia (last year's draft pick coming back from injury)
Francisco Perez (our best starter this year)
Randy Marte
Again, a lot to dream on here with all these guys having upside.
Right now this team is locked into a 1-1 tie after 8 innings. Is it just me or is this team the most exciting, potential-wise, that we have ever had in the AZL league?
This would be a game I would love to see live. Do you think MILB will ever broadcast the AZL games live? I mean all it would take would be a stadium cam. With the MiLB box scores being updated faster this year than in the past, I wouldn't even need announcers and I could probably follow along with what was going on.
Friday, August 5, 2016
You know you are an Indians' fan part deux...
Sorry but I am going to rant. Are you freakin' kidding me? We trade away four prospects, probably 3 in our top 30 including our top prospect Clint Frazier, to get a reliever who I have already shown is redundant and then we proceed to lose 4 of 5 games getting blown out in each game when our starting pitching just freakin' collapses. Each game we fought back and each game our bullpen just dug the hole deeper. Miller has only appeared in 2 of those 5 games, including our only win, 9-2 vs Minnesota on Thursday afternoon.
It's almost like other teams were just waiting for us to throw our prospects away before yanking the rug out from under us, leaving us wondering what it would have been like in 5 years had we kept those 4 guys. I know that's not possible, right?!?!?
Hey, I would rather have Andrew Miller than not have him and I suspect that 5 years from now we might not think as highly of the guys we gave up as we do now. Still, the timing of this swoon could not have been worse. If they don't turn this around the Miller trade will be wasted, at least for this year. Those 4 prospects we gave up will have given in vain.
And immediately after we gave them up did we start pitching like crap, making our three-headed bullpen monster almost worthless and, in the process, losing Danny Salazar to an elbow injury.
The whole freakin' roof is caving in around this team. The timing could not have been worse. The Indians are starting to draw fans, fans were starting to believe in this team and we were playing well.
For those of us who thought that good fortune was starting to shine on Cleveland sports well it might be that we get kicked in the groin again, except this time when we were least expecting it.
Finally, for those of you who want a glass half full analysis, here it is, in three parts:
1. We got to keep the prospects we would have lost in the Lucroy trade. Imagine if we had made that trade, lost all those additional prospects and STILL tanked it after August 1st, again making it seem like we threw prospects away for nothing.
2. Almost on queue, other prospects like Bradley Zimmer, Yandy Diaz and Giovanny Urshela have picked up their games to re-strengthen our farm system and make us all more convinced that we can weather the indiscretion that is the Miller trade. They are not the only prospects who have stepped up since the trade but, given their proximity to the majors, we might yet get an offensive (and defensive) boost from those guys this season and the increased production of other prospects gives us hope for the future.
It just sucks so bad to have this happen to the Indians and their fans. They deserve better than this kind of luck. I don't know how this team can let this happen. I just don't know. Let's hope this is a dream these guys are having and we all wake up tomorrow and watch them play .600 ball for the rest of the season!
It's almost like other teams were just waiting for us to throw our prospects away before yanking the rug out from under us, leaving us wondering what it would have been like in 5 years had we kept those 4 guys. I know that's not possible, right?!?!?
Hey, I would rather have Andrew Miller than not have him and I suspect that 5 years from now we might not think as highly of the guys we gave up as we do now. Still, the timing of this swoon could not have been worse. If they don't turn this around the Miller trade will be wasted, at least for this year. Those 4 prospects we gave up will have given in vain.
And immediately after we gave them up did we start pitching like crap, making our three-headed bullpen monster almost worthless and, in the process, losing Danny Salazar to an elbow injury.
The whole freakin' roof is caving in around this team. The timing could not have been worse. The Indians are starting to draw fans, fans were starting to believe in this team and we were playing well.
For those of us who thought that good fortune was starting to shine on Cleveland sports well it might be that we get kicked in the groin again, except this time when we were least expecting it.
Finally, for those of you who want a glass half full analysis, here it is, in three parts:
1. We got to keep the prospects we would have lost in the Lucroy trade. Imagine if we had made that trade, lost all those additional prospects and STILL tanked it after August 1st, again making it seem like we threw prospects away for nothing.
2. Almost on queue, other prospects like Bradley Zimmer, Yandy Diaz and Giovanny Urshela have picked up their games to re-strengthen our farm system and make us all more convinced that we can weather the indiscretion that is the Miller trade. They are not the only prospects who have stepped up since the trade but, given their proximity to the majors, we might yet get an offensive (and defensive) boost from those guys this season and the increased production of other prospects gives us hope for the future.
It just sucks so bad to have this happen to the Indians and their fans. They deserve better than this kind of luck. I don't know how this team can let this happen. I just don't know. Let's hope this is a dream these guys are having and we all wake up tomorrow and watch them play .600 ball for the rest of the season!
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
You know you are an Indians' fan when...
...you finally make a blockbuster trade at the deadline and then go 0-2 against the Twins, being outscored like 22-11 and, in the process, lose a guy who is likely your #1 starter.
...you trade for the catcher you need only to have that guy veto the trade
...just when you think you might win the division as the Royals have tanked it, the Tigers get really hot and start making every one of our losses hurt.
Just keep saying to yourself: 'Relax, it's a long season'.
I predicted at the beginning of the season that the Indians would win the WS from a wild card spot. I stick by that.
...you trade for the catcher you need only to have that guy veto the trade
...just when you think you might win the division as the Royals have tanked it, the Tigers get really hot and start making every one of our losses hurt.
Just keep saying to yourself: 'Relax, it's a long season'.
I predicted at the beginning of the season that the Indians would win the WS from a wild card spot. I stick by that.
Monday, August 1, 2016
Deadline day musings
Have I mentioned that Jonathon Lucroy is an ass? The worst part is that the Brewers may have made out better in the trade with Texas than in the one with us which is the thing that really hurts here. Just like most Tribe fans undervalue our players, Brewers' fans overvalue what their players are worth.
Can't really get excited about Brandon Guyer. I mean the guy is hitting .243. The guy's age 28, 29 and 30 seasons are his only ones where he has gotten any pro at bats. Frankly, I am surprised they had to give up two low level minor leaguers for him. The Indians reverting to their bottom feeding pattern of past years. His big claim to fame is that he gets hit by pitches at record rates. Beautiful!
Now in our OF we have Almonte, Davis, Naquin, Chisenhall and Guyer. With Ramirez moving to 3B full-time I guess that works. I guess now that Almonte is hitting a bit we are stuck with him for the remainder of the season. Too bad.
So far the best part of today is who isn't with the Indians.
I am glad we did not get Jay Bruce.
I am sorry the Rangers got Beltran. I am questionably sorry we didn't get him but since he is a right-handed Jay Bruce, I am glad we don't have his defense. Lucroy plus Beltran really helps Texas. Actually, just what I didn't want to have happen. Other team(s) in the AL improving much more than us at the deadline.
Looking at what it cost to get Will Smith, I am glad we didn't go for him.
Probably the biggest news today is that Juan Uribe is gone. That may be the best news of the day for the Indians. Again, if you want to send a message to the clubhouse that bad production can't be tolerated, this is as good as any message.
Still, though, that doesn't solve anything. We still don't have any production out of our catcher and didn't acquire a stud outfielder or third baseman.
Can't really get excited about Brandon Guyer. I mean the guy is hitting .243. The guy's age 28, 29 and 30 seasons are his only ones where he has gotten any pro at bats. Frankly, I am surprised they had to give up two low level minor leaguers for him. The Indians reverting to their bottom feeding pattern of past years. His big claim to fame is that he gets hit by pitches at record rates. Beautiful!
Now in our OF we have Almonte, Davis, Naquin, Chisenhall and Guyer. With Ramirez moving to 3B full-time I guess that works. I guess now that Almonte is hitting a bit we are stuck with him for the remainder of the season. Too bad.
So far the best part of today is who isn't with the Indians.
I am glad we did not get Jay Bruce.
I am sorry the Rangers got Beltran. I am questionably sorry we didn't get him but since he is a right-handed Jay Bruce, I am glad we don't have his defense. Lucroy plus Beltran really helps Texas. Actually, just what I didn't want to have happen. Other team(s) in the AL improving much more than us at the deadline.
Looking at what it cost to get Will Smith, I am glad we didn't go for him.
Probably the biggest news today is that Juan Uribe is gone. That may be the best news of the day for the Indians. Again, if you want to send a message to the clubhouse that bad production can't be tolerated, this is as good as any message.
Still, though, that doesn't solve anything. We still don't have any production out of our catcher and didn't acquire a stud outfielder or third baseman.
Why the Miller trade was the wrong one to make
Like the rich baseball fan who wanted the Babe Ruth-autographed ball, he didn't have to have it, he just wanted it.
So is the story with the Indians acquisition of Andrew Miller.
He was not what they needed but he was what they wanted.
No one doubts his ability. No one. However, we paid dearly for him in prospects.
Here is why this was a bad trade.
We needed a LOOGY. We didn't get one, although I would say that Miller lessens the need for one. Miller provides a setup man or closer. We didn't need either, really. Here is why:
Bryan Show is 17-20 in hold situations. In his 4 losses (including the 3 blown holds) the Indians have scored 11 runs total. Yes, he blew those holds, but it was the offense that made the game close by not scoring runs. A few more runs lessens the pressure on Shaw to be perfect.
Cody Allen is 20-22 in save situations. The Indians won the two games that he blew saves in. So, from that standpoint, he is perfect in save situations. His 4 losses came in games he came in with the score tied. In every one of those games the Indians had a chance to put the game away the inning before Allen pitched and they didn't do it.
So, although our closer and primary setup man are not perfect, they are very effective and could have been even more effective with somewhat better production, especially from the catcher and third base positions. .
The only two reasons we would NEED Miller are:
a. We have an ineffective or hurt closer or primary setup man (we don't)
b. We have starters who only get us through 6 innings and have ineffective middle relievers and need three shutdown relievers and don't have them.
Even though we have blown a number of holds during this season and the middle relievers are responsible for some of that, it would be a real stretch, looking at their stats, to say McAllister, Manship and Otero are ineffective.
As far as needing 3 shutdown relievers, here are the results from the current 5 starters in innings pitched:
Corey Kluber: In his 21 starts he has gone 6.2 or more innings 15 times, meaning, if we had the lead we would have needed only two shutdown relievers. In 5 of the remaining 6 starts he has lost blowouts where having Miller would not have helped. In one start he went 6 innings and won 7-0, meaning that we likely didn't need 3 shutdown relievers to win that game.
Danny Salazar: In his 20 starts he went 6.2 innings 8 times. His pitch counts tend to be high in other games and in 6 other starts he either gave up all the runs or enough of the runs where three shutdown relievers would likely not have helped to change the outcome. In his 6 remaining starts we won 4 of them, meaning that in only two starts is it even possible that having that 3rd shutdown reliever would have changed the outcome.
Carlos Carrasco: In his 15 starts he has gone 6.2 innings or more 5 times. In the remaining 9 starts the Indians won 6 of those games even though he didn't go very long. In the three remaining starts he twice gave up more runs than the Indians scored in the entire game. So, it appears that our relief was not really needed or was effective enough to win his starts almost every time.
Josh Tomlin: In his 19 starts he went 6.2 or more innings 8 times. In those remaining 11 starts we went 8-3 and in those 3 losses we either got blown out or he gave up more runs in his time on the mound than we scored the entire game.
Trevor Bauer: In his 17 starts he went 6.2 or more innings 7 times. In his remaining starts he gave up more runs than the Indians scored 3 times and they won 3 other starts. Thus there were probably 4 starts where we might have needed that 3rd shutdown reliever.
So. looking at the Indians starters, their setup man and their closer and even factoring in the current (and former) middle relievers, there were only a handful of games where the Indians could have used a 3rd shutdown reliever. I think if we peel the onion back a little more we find that in most of those games if we had prevented a few more runs or scored even 5 runs we would have won a number of those games (a few were blowout losses or wins).
Look, no one is saying that Andrew Miller won't make this team better. But having him for 2+ years was NOT worth our top prospect, another in our top 10 and two intriguing throw-in AAA, relatively young, hard-throwing relievers. Not with holes at LOOGY, catcher and either third base or outfield. No, this was a bad trade not for who we got or who we gave up but for the fact that the resources we spent should have been used to shore up REAL holes in our team.
And, as I have before, I will end this post by saying that a way to get through to the clubhouse is to dump the totally ineffective Juan Uribe. He is exactly the type of guy that WAR was created to ferret out. His WAR is -0.4 currently.
So is the story with the Indians acquisition of Andrew Miller.
He was not what they needed but he was what they wanted.
No one doubts his ability. No one. However, we paid dearly for him in prospects.
Here is why this was a bad trade.
We needed a LOOGY. We didn't get one, although I would say that Miller lessens the need for one. Miller provides a setup man or closer. We didn't need either, really. Here is why:
Bryan Show is 17-20 in hold situations. In his 4 losses (including the 3 blown holds) the Indians have scored 11 runs total. Yes, he blew those holds, but it was the offense that made the game close by not scoring runs. A few more runs lessens the pressure on Shaw to be perfect.
Cody Allen is 20-22 in save situations. The Indians won the two games that he blew saves in. So, from that standpoint, he is perfect in save situations. His 4 losses came in games he came in with the score tied. In every one of those games the Indians had a chance to put the game away the inning before Allen pitched and they didn't do it.
So, although our closer and primary setup man are not perfect, they are very effective and could have been even more effective with somewhat better production, especially from the catcher and third base positions. .
The only two reasons we would NEED Miller are:
a. We have an ineffective or hurt closer or primary setup man (we don't)
b. We have starters who only get us through 6 innings and have ineffective middle relievers and need three shutdown relievers and don't have them.
Even though we have blown a number of holds during this season and the middle relievers are responsible for some of that, it would be a real stretch, looking at their stats, to say McAllister, Manship and Otero are ineffective.
As far as needing 3 shutdown relievers, here are the results from the current 5 starters in innings pitched:
Corey Kluber: In his 21 starts he has gone 6.2 or more innings 15 times, meaning, if we had the lead we would have needed only two shutdown relievers. In 5 of the remaining 6 starts he has lost blowouts where having Miller would not have helped. In one start he went 6 innings and won 7-0, meaning that we likely didn't need 3 shutdown relievers to win that game.
Danny Salazar: In his 20 starts he went 6.2 innings 8 times. His pitch counts tend to be high in other games and in 6 other starts he either gave up all the runs or enough of the runs where three shutdown relievers would likely not have helped to change the outcome. In his 6 remaining starts we won 4 of them, meaning that in only two starts is it even possible that having that 3rd shutdown reliever would have changed the outcome.
Carlos Carrasco: In his 15 starts he has gone 6.2 innings or more 5 times. In the remaining 9 starts the Indians won 6 of those games even though he didn't go very long. In the three remaining starts he twice gave up more runs than the Indians scored in the entire game. So, it appears that our relief was not really needed or was effective enough to win his starts almost every time.
Josh Tomlin: In his 19 starts he went 6.2 or more innings 8 times. In those remaining 11 starts we went 8-3 and in those 3 losses we either got blown out or he gave up more runs in his time on the mound than we scored the entire game.
Trevor Bauer: In his 17 starts he went 6.2 or more innings 7 times. In his remaining starts he gave up more runs than the Indians scored 3 times and they won 3 other starts. Thus there were probably 4 starts where we might have needed that 3rd shutdown reliever.
So. looking at the Indians starters, their setup man and their closer and even factoring in the current (and former) middle relievers, there were only a handful of games where the Indians could have used a 3rd shutdown reliever. I think if we peel the onion back a little more we find that in most of those games if we had prevented a few more runs or scored even 5 runs we would have won a number of those games (a few were blowout losses or wins).
Look, no one is saying that Andrew Miller won't make this team better. But having him for 2+ years was NOT worth our top prospect, another in our top 10 and two intriguing throw-in AAA, relatively young, hard-throwing relievers. Not with holes at LOOGY, catcher and either third base or outfield. No, this was a bad trade not for who we got or who we gave up but for the fact that the resources we spent should have been used to shore up REAL holes in our team.
And, as I have before, I will end this post by saying that a way to get through to the clubhouse is to dump the totally ineffective Juan Uribe. He is exactly the type of guy that WAR was created to ferret out. His WAR is -0.4 currently.
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