And the San DIego Padres jump in! Could Mejia be coming back?

This is exactly the way it's supposed to be.   Get a bunch of people interested in a 'property' and drive up the price to get the best return on your investment.

But this isn't real estate and Corey Kluber isn't a piece of land with a building on it.

That being said, if the Indians are truly pitting division rivals against each other I would suggest they open a dialogue with St. Louis.   Having San Diego and the Dodgers pitted against each other is great but adding the Cardinals to the Reds would make this even more interesting.   Engaging the Braves might be another way to drive up the price.

But back to the Padres.

It is rumored the Indians would have to be blown away to get a deal done.   It has also been stated that the Padres would not include either of their top two prospects (Fernando Tatis Jr. or McKenzie Gore) in the trade.   With those parameters here is my deal:

Kluber and Haase for OF Hunter Renfro, C/OF Francisco Mejia and RHRP Andres Munoz

Yes, I still think that Mejia can catch and I like keeping his bat in the lineup when he isn't catching.   Having him as the DH with Santana playing 1B and Bauers in LF will do that.   At the same time if we do this it kinda makes the Luplow trade look worthless (assuming you didn't think it was a worthless trade already!) as Renfro goes to RF in that situation.  But whatever.

So there it is.  

This deal meets all the criteria above and, in its own way, it is kinda cool.

However, the problem is that there are MANY PR reasons this doesn't work for the Padres.

1. They traded Kluber away in the first place.   It is hard to justify paying a high price for a guy you traded away for a low return (Ludwick, based on his production in San Diego).

2. Getting Hand and Cimber for Mejia looked good for both teams at the time but I imagine that the Padres fans may feel cheated on that deal now that they have had time to think and read about the reasons why the Indians were willing to deal Mejia. I think those fans need Mejia to contribute heavily FOR the Padres at this point to feel good about that trade...not use him as trade bait for a bigger trade.

3. When the Padres fans think about it they would have, in a 6-month period, traded Hand, Cimber, Renfro and Munoz for Kluber and Haase.  I don't know if that would fly with those fans as being even exchange even though I think that it is CLEARLY even exchange with the Padres getting the better of the deal if Kluber stays healthy and Munoz isn't a good contributor in the next year or so, given what we can expect from Cimber, Hand and Renfro.

Do St. Louis Cardinals make sense for Kluber trade

It appears that Jose Martinez who has played 1B, LF and RF for the Cardinals may be available with their acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt.

Living in St. Louis gives me a little perspective and I am not a huge Jose Martinez fan, truth be told, as I don't like his basic numbers that much and he is an older guy (31) even though his ML experience is limited (1+ years).  However, he is an upgrade to what we have and is controllable and there is no full-time position for him right now in St. Louis.

I doubt if the Cardinals would go for this but I could see us making the following trade:

Kluber, Kipnis and $5 million for Martinez, Dakota Hudson, Ryan Helsley and Kolten Wong

Helsley may be a little too much to ask for in this trade but that is where I would start and if I had to throw in another minor leaguer I could see us giving up Dalbert Siri.

Just a thought.

Trading Kluber

OK, two teams interested in Kluber participated in a trade.   The interesting thing about that is that two of the Dodgers linked to Kluber, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, were in that trade!   This sets up all sorts of scenarios.  

I think the above trade increases the chances that the Indians both deal with the Reds AND include Kipnis in the deal.   Let's talk why:

• The Dodgers have traded enough outfielders now that they can no longer trade an outfielder to Cleveland.   Even if they do sign Bryce Harper it would only give them 5 outfielders on their roster and I don't see how they could give the 4th outfield spot to Andrew Toles and trade Alex Verdugo to the Indians.  I guess they could move one of their infielders to the outfield but I think this dooms the Kluber trade.  The Kluber trade with the Dodgers looked good if we would have taken on one of their contracts and given them Kipnis.   Say, Verdugo, Kemp, Dennis Santana and Will Smith for Kipnis and Kluber.   Without Verdugo that deal HAS to die on the vine and now with Kemp gone, there is no way to make the salaries work AND still get the Indians quality prospects for Kluber
• The Reds, on the other hand, appear now to have the pieces the Indians want and, according to their FO, they have "resources" left to use to improve their team.  So let's postulate a trade.   The first part is a salary exchange, then we talk Kluber for whoever we can get.   

Kipnis for Puig and Kluber, $3 million (difference between Kipnis and Puig salary) for Senzel, Herget, Santillan and Jose Lopez

This would increase the Reds payroll with Kluber's salary.   We would get a right fielder, a replacement for Kipnis on the infield and three guys who can help our bullpen in 2019 and beyond with Santillan being a possible future starter, as well..  

In summary I think this minimizes the chances of Kluber being traded to the Dodgers, that is if we want a good, long-term return and it increases the chances of him being dealt to the Reds as they are now set up to have the pieces the Indians want AND take on Kluber's salary.

Qualifying Offers

OK, it's time to revisit the lack of qualifying offers made by the Indians.

We now know some things we didn't know at the time qualifying offers had to be made:

• Yasmani Grandal was offered the $17.6 million qualifying offer and rejected it.   He hasn't signed yet.  In my opinion I can't see him being as valuable as our best free agents.
• The Indians were looking for ways to cut salary this off-season and that plan would have been severely impacted if anyone had accepted a qualifying offer
• The Indians really don't seem, at the present, to care much about this level of draft choices given that they gave one away to Seattle in a recent trade.
• The Indians seem to be spending more time scouting and signing higher level talents in Latin America than they have in the past.

We also know that Michael Brantley has signed a two year deal worth $32 million and that Andrew Miller has signed a two-year deal for $22.5 million.   Cody Allen, the other reliever who might have been worth making a qualifying offer to has not yet signed.  We were not allowed to make a qualifying offer to Josh Donaldson as he was not with the club long enough.   He recently signed a 1-year deal for $23 million.

I think the last 3 bullets above really point out that the Indians really were never going to make qualifying offers to their free agents under any situation.  

Look, I am a prospect guy so I like draft choices.   I also know that if you play your cards right you can get 5-10 3rd round or better talents in a draft IF you have a lot of high draft choices to begin with as, among other things, it increases your bonus pool.  The Indians don't appear to be thinking that way and their budget constraints just made it easy for them to turn down the opportunity to get something they don't presently seem to value: extra draft choices, although I think it is fair to say that at least Michael Brantley would have rejected the offer, maybe Andrew Miller, too.

The Indians have chosen to go a different direction but let's all be aware that this was a conscious decision.   So, if we don't have enough prospects 5 years from now, one of the things we can trace it back to is the lack of value they seem to put on excess draft choices and acquiring and keeping them.

Still trading Kluber, huh?

I am OK with trading Corey Kluber.   Let's set the record straight right here.   However, it would have to be for a great return.

Let's define a great return:

1. Young highly regarded prospect (top 20 in all of baseball) who can step in and play a position of need this year (outfield, third or second base).

2. A reliable reliever who is under a club-favorable contract and still had 2 or more years of control

3. A young, highly rated prospect who is still 2 years away from having to be rostered and at least 3 years away from the majors.

4. If necessary, taking on a short term veteran contract of lesser value than Kluber's if they fill a position of need with us.

Now, in saying this I wanted to throw out some names:

Francisco Mejia

Oliver Perez

Willi Castro

Edwin Encarnacion

Basically I am asking to get back what we already traded away in the past 6 months.

Now, when you think about that, isn't it silly to trade Kluber away just to get back guys like this?

I think it is.

How about you?

Let's take a few minutes away from baseball to catch our breath!

So let's talk some football.   Here are my opinions, for what they are worth.

• I can't believe anyone thinks Ohio State deserved to be in the playoffs.   Just too many close or unconvincing victories against weak opponents and then there is Purdue.  That being said, they keep cranking out NFL players and keep winning.
• The Browns at 6-7-1 are a pleasant surprise.   Still, I watched all of their game on Saturday, the first time I have seen them in a complete game.   They didn't look very good.   They won, but not in a manner that would convince me that under Mayfield they are on the upswing.  The kinda won ugly.  This is the type of vast improvement that is part mirage and portends a falloff to say 4 wins next year.  They need to find a way to keep this momentum going into the off-season and next year and buck that fall off trend.
• Let's talk Ohio State football recruiting next.   I think this whole recruiting 'dance' is just comical.  Guys committing two years in advance only to decommit and then commit to someone else, sometimes multiple times before the early signing period.  If you are a hard core, all in OSU football fan this must drive you nuts.   I am only at the periphery of it and I think the whole process is crazy.
• Speaking of crazy, I just read that Georgia's freshman quarterback is thinking of transferring to OSU!  That brings me to the major point of this post.    OSU, not counting Haskins, has 4 quarterbacks on their depth chart including two, Martell and Baldwin, who are top recruits.   Why on Earth would another quarterback want to come here.   Weird.   Now I can see where maybe you need 12 offensive linemen on scholarship and so a freshman coming in and seeing 10 guys on the depth chart in front of him wouldn't be dismayed.   But a quarterback coming into a program that already has 4 quarterbacks plus Haskins?   That's like having 5 scholarship punters.
• OK, that's it for now.   Now back to baseball.   Sometime I will have to digress and tell all of you about my connection to professional wrestling!

Minor league infielder Andruw Monasterio, huh!

So the PTBNL in the Yan Gomes trade is Andruw Monasterio!

Underwhelming, to be sure..

Hey, its not like I have anything against Monasterio.   Apparently Washsington thought enough about him to have him on the 40-man roster and if what I read is accurate for the last two years, meaning he only has one option left.  

But, as I said, I don't have anything against the guy.   Of course, I don't have anything against Eric Stamets, Luke Watkamatsu, Dillon Persinger, Jorma Rodriguez, Dorsys Paulino or even higher ranked prospects like Tyler Krieger, Mark Mathias and Ernie Clement.

But that's the point, isn't it.   Utility infielders, even ones on the 40 man roster (like Stamets), are not that valuable.

So, getting Monasterio as the PTBNL in the Yan Gomes salary dump trade makes perfect sense.   It was a salary dump.   Therefore, you wouldn't expect the PTBNL to be worth much.   And he wasn't.

In fact, you COULD make the case that taking Monasterio actually did Washington a favor as it cleared a 40-man roster spot for them without them having to DFA Monasterio or provide us with a younger prospect who had more value and/or didn't have to be rostered yet..

So I have to ask myself: Which team did this PTBNL transaction help more: The Indians or the Nationals?

I would say it was a wash...which means it actually didn't help the Indians now or in the future...much like the whole Gomes trade and, until proven otherwise, every trade the Indians made this off-season.

Thoughts For A Friday Night

I never liked the Yonder Alonso signing and said so at the time of his signing.    His stats show that he is a platoon player.   You don't sign platoon players for $8 million a year.   Just getting rid of his contract is good enough.     This is one salary dump I am on board with.  

Right now, what would look really good would be the following lineup:

C - Roberto Perez
1B - Jake Bauers
2B - Jose Ramirez
SS - Francisco Lindor
3B - Manny Machado
LF - Greg Allen
CF - Leonys Martin
RF - Bryce Harper
DH - Carlos Santana

Now, with our pitching staff if a couple of the relievers come on and Salazar can contribute in some way, now we have a chance to compete for a series title.

However, without Harper and Machado we have the following lineup:

C - Perez
1B - Bauers
2B - Kipnis
SS - Lindor
3B - Ramirez
LF - Allen
CF - Martin
RF - Luplow/Naquin
DH - Santana

I contend that this would not even constitute a true major league lineup.  Even more telling than that is that Moroff is our utility infielder, Haase is our backup catcher and we have ZERO backup outfielders, at least at the start of the season (Zimmer later?) AND, except for Yu Chang, we really don't have a single minor leaguer ready to step in and help this team offensively or defensively, even in a platoon arrangement.

So, saving salary is one way to go but you have to have a plan to fill your starters and backups with guys who can actually play in the majors, not just 4A players.

Rule 5 results and analysis

Wow, who would have thought bad news in the Rule 5 draft would seem insignificant.

Here is how the Indians fared today in the Rule 5 draft:

Major League phase

Round 1

10. Mets: RHP Kyle Dowdy (Indians)

Triple-A phase

Round 1
12. Angels: RHP Matt Esparza (Indians)
19. Indians: LHP Yapson Gomez (Cubs)  

Round 2
32. Indians: 1B Wilson Garcia (Orioles)

41. A's: 1B Anthony Miller (Indians)

Round 4
42. Rays: RHP Hector Figueroa (Indians) 

On the surface this doesn't appear to be a great loss.   We kept Oscar Gonzalez, Dalbert Siri and others.  We could have lost more.  Sad to see Esparza go.  

Still, in the big scheme of things, this was minor news today.  

One silver lining: the penny-pinching Indians will come out in the black today as they will bring in more for the players they lost than for the players they brought in...at least in the Rule 5 draft.

In my opinion the Indians are not the best at roster management in anticipation of the Rule 5 and I am talking more about their AAA reserve list than their major league roster.   Still, if this is all they lost this year they certainly appear to have limited the damage.   I guess we should be happy for small victories like this.  OK, I will take my tongue out of my cheek now.

And yet another piece of crap!

The Indians stated method of operation this winter is to reduce salary, remain competitive this year and build for the future.   Given that, I need someone to explain to me why today's trade made sense.

In today's deal the Indians:

• took on $40.8 million in salary while giving up $25.   That is offset a little bit by getting $6 million but  it still means that we added over $10 million in salary over the next two years above what were responsible for going into today.
• They traded a 1B/DH for a 1B/DH.   One can argue the relative merits of these two players but, for me, I consider the talent a wash here.
• Traded Yandy Diaz and the lottery ticket that is Cole Sulser for the .201 hitting Jake Bauer, 
• Traded the #77 pick in the upcoming draft for the above-mentioned $6 million.   Note, also, that they saved $800,000 because that is the slot for the pick that they won't have next year so in terms of cost savings, you have to consider that. 

How does any of that meet the stated purpose of cutting salary while remaining currently competitive while building for the future?  Salaries actually GO UP considering the next two years.   Bauers, on paper, doesn't make us more competitive now or in the future unless, and here is that phrase again, you can catch lightning in a bottle with Bauer turning into a MUCH better player than he has showed up to this point and Diaz being a worse player than he has shown so far.  Plus, this small market team that should depend on player development just traded a draft pick for cash.

I will say this again.   NO TRADE, not one, they have made this winter makes them better in 2019 or in the future.  In every case it appears we gave up more than we got back.  EVERY CASE.   How is that possible?  I can see one trade like the Bauers one, looking like we got robbed because our analytics guys (who, BTW, got buried against the Astros guys in the playoffs) thought Bauers was a real good value, but EVERY trade looks like we took other teams' trash and gave them at least lottery tickets back, if not significantly more.

I don't like to call people names who are supposed to be professionals at their jobs.  I mean, people who know what they are doing entrusted them with these roles, roles they graduated into after years as underlings.   However, the Indians front office looks to me to be a bunch of Grade A idiots who can't distinguish between a race horse and the dung that race horse produces.

What's your guess?

Well we are about to get to the meat of the offseason: the winter meetings.

Unfortunately this year, for me, these meetings are more about dread than expectation.

There have been several rumors about the Indians trying to package Jason Kipnis with a starting pitcher.

Of course, the upshot of that is that we would get a Yan Gomes-(or worse, relatively)-like return for that starting pitcher.

Effectively it would giving up our second all-star this winter without helping the 2019 team or, likely, the team in the future.

This rumor, of course, brings out every blogging idiot saying "Hey, man, I think we could steal Trevor Bauer from the Indians because they need to slash salary".  I know that all I have to do is stop reading these bloggers to stop the pain of reading these bloggers.   That being said, it is just painful to see that the rest of the baseball world sees the Indians as a team they can steal good players from.

So, what's your vote: Will we try to include Kipnis at the cost of not getting even return back from the team we trade the starting pitcher to?

Given all the other STUPID moves this off-season, none of which help the Indians at all unless they catch lightning in a bottle (I guess if you throw enough crap against the wall SOME of it will stick), my guess is that the Indians will try to include Kipnis and be happy with whatever trash they get back.  That is, another salary dump.

For a team that has won 3 AL Central titles in a row, it is almost incomprehensible to say this but this off-season is truly a depressing time to be an Indains' fan!

An open letter to Indians' management

5-18

4-7-1

Dear Indians Management,

It is about 3 weeks from Christmas.   This is what you have to compete against as far as your competition for Cleveland's sports entertainment dollars.

Doesn't seem like that hard of a task, right?  

You are in a rebuilding division.   You have the best rotation and a couple of the best (maybe the two best) position players in the division.

Shouldn't be hard to win your division and, as a result, have a winning team, right?

This is why your front office's performance this off-season is so puzzling.  

Your goal is to cut budget.   I get that.   I know that is why Gomes got traded and one of your starting pitchers will get traded.  Got it.

The problem is that your off-season transactions are garbage.

I know you feel Gomes had to be traded.   I just don't know why you took the other team's questionable prospects in return for a catcher who is well above league average.  You are in Cleveland where prospects matter.   So why wouldn't you try to get the best prospect return, even if that meant taking prospects still in the lower minors, rather than taking high minors prospects who are likely to NEVER help you be competitive?   If you want to be competitive long-term you don't take guys with 4th outfielder and middle relief potential.

As far as the trades that got us Luplow, Moroff, Lockett and Chih-Wei Hu, we lost an important trade chip in Erik Gonzalez and a number of pitching prospects in Mendoza, Thomas and Feliz and an intriguing infielder in Gionti Turner.  All of the guys we got back have been either failures or mediocre so far in their careers.    I know, your FO will look like heroes if they take other teams' rejects and turn them into viable and important parts of the Indians roster this season.   But why would you even gamble on that?

So we are trading low minors prospects for 4A-level talent and when we trade a veteran we get mediocre, 4A level prospects back?

While I get Gomes I don't get the return for Gomes.   I also don't get any of the other trades the Indians made this off-season.   It gives the Indians questionable bullpen arms and questionable position players, neither of which is going to help the team win this year or, likely, in the future.   It is embarrassing to say that there is a real chance that NONE of the six players we have acquired this off-season will EVER have a positive impact on Cleveland Indians baseball.

And if you think that your analytics are better than those of other teams, realize that you got your butt handed to you in the playoffs by a team, the Houston Astros, who actually knows how to use analytics.   So don't count on convincing us that the 4a level players you traded for this winter will be better than what they appear to be.   You don't have the track record to even TRY to sell us that bill of goods.

So, while you are doing your Christmas shopping ponder on Cleveland sports fans doing theirs.   You are in a unique position to be the only viable sports franchise in Cleveland and you are doing NOTHING to help yourselves get people to buy tickets.

If you want your front office to do something useful, have them find a way to dump Younder Alonso and Jason Kipnis without lessening the return for whatever starting pitcher we trade.

The Indians can run this town like they did in the 90s.   Just tell your front office to stop blowing the opportunity out of their butt!

Yam Gomes post trade thought

Yan Gomes was traded to save money.    Why was that necessary?   People say that the increase in payroll caused us to have to shed salary.

However, I want to put a different spin on that.   One of the major reasons we had to trade Gomes was because we signed Yonder Alonso to the 2 year, $16 million salary.   Alonso is a platoon player and you don't pay platoon players $8 a year.   Any moron can look at his lifetime splits and see he can't hit lefties.  Alonso has not helped us at all and won't in the future.

If you don't sign the irrelevant Alonso you have enough money to keep Gomes and maybe the starting pitcher and STILL win the division.

So, the ridiculous, inflated Alonso signing has cost us Gomes and maybe the starting pitcher.

I could even stomach that IF we could get something back of value.   But we are apparently incapable of that.

I am really scared for this starting pitcher trade. Really scared.

Our trades to obtain Jordan Luplow, Max Moroff, Chih-Wei Hu and Walter Lockett were just stupid.   We obtained a guy with an UPSIDE of being a platoon outfielder (Luplow), a utility infielder who can't play shortstop and can't hit (Moroff), and two pitchers who look like they are 4A players (Chih-Wei'Lu and Walter Lockettt).

The only upside in all these trades was that we lost only one player, Erik Gonzalez, who was important to our success in 2019.

I can't begin to tell you how stupid all these trades were.   There was no sense to any of them.  None.  I would LOVE to see Chernoff/Antonnetti justify trading for guys with zero history of ML success and, as a small market team, trade away a variety of prospects to do it.

There is a better than average chance that NONE of the guys we got in these trades will even play in the majors this year, let alone help the team in 2019.  I do believe, however, that there is no way that the Indians will break camp next spring without Luplow on the team as that would signal how stupid Chernoff's trade was, and there is no way the Indians front office will let that happen.

After seeing these first three trades, in the back of my mind I wondered what this pathetic excuse for general managing would do when they had to make a real trade.

Well, now we found out.

For Yan Gomes, a controllable above average major league catcher, we got back three players, two of whom are mediocre prospects, redundant to what we already have PLENTY of in our minor league system.   We don't know about the 3rd prospect.

So this brings us to the major trade we are going to make this winter.  Trading one of our starters.   Given all the trades we have made already, it seems likely now that we will be disappointed in the return for whichever starter we end up trading.   Our biggest trading chip and we are likely to get less than equal return back.    I had to laugh when local bloggers, trying to suggest CRAP trades that highly favored their team, suggested that we get Michael Taylor (Washington's mediocre 4th outfielder) or Yasiel Puig back for Kluber.  Now, however, given what we have seen already, I am worried that our front office will actually do something stupid like that.

Plus, the Indians saying they want to negotiate an extension with Carrasco or they will trade him is priceless if true.   If I was Carrasco I would immediately cut off negotiations so they DID trade me because, most certainly, they are going to want him at a discount.

Hey, I love the Cleveland Indians.  Have for 60+ years.   But what they are doing this off-season is not defensible and is hurting the near- and long-term future of this team.  

And in front of us we have the trade of the starting pitcher coming up.   Good luck with that!