Strange plan

Antonetti said, if I understood him correctly, that the Indians would pursue pieces at the trade deadline if the Indians were still in contention and needed those pieces.

Great.

Except for one thing.

People overpay at the deadline and usually in the form of prospects.

And another thing.

Usually the pieces the Indians add at the deadline have zero impact on their finish in the post-season.  BTW, that is generally true for most teams except those that add Justin Verlanders to their roster.

Which brings me to a point that has been made by others:

If the Indians make a trade at the deadline it should be for Corey Kluber.

No trading prospects again.  

Never.

This is the Indians.   They don't draw enough fans to avoid being cheap.  

They have already ripped a lot of prospects out of their farm system in the past 3 years trying to compete.  Some of those were lost in trades.   Some were lost because they never got a chance to play in Cleveland and developed elsewhere.

Bottom line is that it is time to keep our prospects.

Trade Kluber if you get an excellent and necessary return.   But leave the prospects alone.   Even if a Francisco Mejia for Hand/Cimber looks good on paper, let's not do those trades.

Erik Gonzalez trade revisited

At the time the Indians traded Erik Gonzalez, one of their top 30 prospects Tahnaj Thomas and Dante Mendoza I was livid.   All we got in return was Jordan Luplow and Max Moroff.

At the time Neil Huntington of the Pirates said that this was a trade down the road that could really help both teams.  General managers usually say that when they have fleeced the other general manager or when they have gotten fleeced to keep the wolves away from their door.  

Then this week I read the following:

"Pittsburgh was excited to acquire him in November, and he’s now the favorite to serve as its Opening Day shortstop. Pirates scouts were “beating the table” to get Gonzalez, who they believe will be “’above average. Dynamic. Very good. More range than anybody you’ve had at short maybe some you have managed,'” manager Clint Hurdle said."

Basically, they are saying that Gonzalez is really good and they think that he will be a well above-average starter at shortstop.   That means that we should have gotten a good return for Gonzalez, right?   Adding in Thomas and Mendoza means we should have gotten a REALLY good return.

The return for Gonzalez was pathetic.

Max Moroff is a career .233 hitter at AAA in over 100 plate appearances, which makes his ML average of .193 seem like reality, with very little chance for improvement.   Basically, he isn't even a replacement-level utility infielder.

Jordan Luplow has been characterized as a platoon outfielder who is going to have to hit much better than his .203 ML average last year although his AAA numbers of .303 average in over 500 plate appearances gives some hope.

Trading the two of them for Gonzalez would have been one-sided in Pittsburgh's favor.  Adding in Mendoza and Thomas makes it an absolute steal for Pittsburgh and a really dumb trade for the Indians.

So, it is on the Indians' scouts.  Luplow better be an outstanding player this year because that is what we should have gotten for Gonzalez, Thomas and Mendoza.    If not the Indians and their scouts just absolutely suck.   Plus, the Indians should have a plan in place to bring in a utility infielder to do what Gonzalez can do.   Moroff is NOT that player, offensively or defensively.   There better be a plan in place to get someone in here who can hold down the job if we have an injury.   So far that plan has not materialized.  

Indians Top 50 Prospects

I posted back in August who I thought the Indians top 50 prospects were.   A lot has happened since then.   Here is the August list which I have also updated which I have updated with comments to what I think it looks like today (in parentheses).  The players we lost this winter are in red.   The ones we gained this winter are in green.

1. Triston McKenzie - (1)
2. Nolan Jones - (2)
3. Ethan Hankins - (3)
4. Oscar Mercado - (15)
5. Tyler Freeman - (4)
6. Oscar Gonzalez - (7)
7. Luis Oviedo -(8)
8. Bo Naylor - (5)
9. Marcos Gonzalez - (9)
10. Yandy Diaz
11. Adam Plutko - (20)
12. Raynel Delgado - (10)
13. Lenny Torres - (11)
14. Aaron Civale - (12)
15. Yainer Diaz - (13)
16. George Valera (6)

17. Eli Morgan (14)

---  Daniel Johnson - (16)

18. Andrew Calica (17)
19. Bobby Bradley (18)
20. Yu Chang (19)
21. Eric Haase (22)

22. Brayan Rochio (23)

---  Chi Wei Hu (24)

23. Gabriel Rodriguez (25)
24. Henry Martinez (35)
25. Aaron Braccho (28)
26. Will Benson (29)
27. Yefferson Yannuzzi (48)
28. Zach Plesac - (27)
29. Nick Sandlin - (21)
30. Jose Baez (31)
31. Junior Sanguitin (32)
32. Ignazio Feliz
33. Jean Carlos Mejia (26)
34. Michael Jerez (33)
35. Jhonkensy Noel - (34)
36. Korey Holland (36)
37. Gionti Turner
38. Logan Ice (37)
39. Connor Marabell (38)
40. Shao-Ching Chang (39)
41. Ernie Clement (40)
42. Sam Hentges - (21)
43. Richard Palacios - (30)
44. Quentin Holmes (41)
45. Roberto Hernandez (42)
46. Mitch Brown (43)
47. Ben Krauth (44)
48. Brady Aiken (45)
49. Jose Fermin (46)
50. Juan Hillman (47)
51. James Karinchak (30)
52. Kirk McCarty (49)
53. Luis C. Garcia (50)
54. Julian Merryweather
55. Ka'i Tom (51)

---. Mitch Longo (52)

--- Ben Taylor (53)

The advantages of bargain basement shopping

OK, the bargain basement period of free agency has just begun!

Looking over the signings of today we have:

Nick Markakis $4 million for one year plus a $500,000 buyout

Asdrubal Cabrera $3.5 million

These are not expensive prices.  Add Oliver Perez at $1.5 million and you get three pieces to the puzzle at $9.5 million, or roughly what you would have gotten Cody Allen for.  Not that these guys are great but they are better than Jordan Luplow/Tyler Naquin, nobody (as a lefty reliever) and Max Moroff (utility infielder).  We are not talking an AJ Pollock upgrade but at least this team would be better.

Of course, I am still holding out for Manny Machado and Bryce Harper to be signed by the Indians.

It makes perfect sense,  The luxury tax level is $206 million and even with Harper and Machado it is likely to cost them roughly $60 million a year that still puts us at $175 million whereas it would have been close or over that number if we hadn't shed salary.    I really wish I had won the MegaMillions last month so I could have invested that money in salaries for these guys.

Kluber being traded

I have heard all the Kluber rumors and, to me, it all comes down to this.   We need an outfielder (preferably a right fielder), we need a third or second baseman and we need bullpen help.

Most of that help should come in the form of younger players under our control.

Of the teams I have heard about being interested in Kluber the only one that makes sense for me is the Reds.

As I said previously, I would like Yasiel Puig, Nick Senzel, Herget, Santillan and Lopez for Kluber and Kipnis.

Obviously the Reds would like us to take on Matt Kemp's residual salary which matches Kipnis' salary nicely as, at this point in their careers, I think Puig is much more valuable than Kemp.

I could go for that.  I would ask to include Blake Trahan and give back Max Moroff.  Just a feeling but I don't believe Morofff would ever play in Cleveland but I think Trahan might.  

In any case, I know that is a lot to ask from the Reds but I don't think they would really want Kemp and they really want Kluber so I think it is the kind of trade the Indians would like and the Reds could stomach to get Kluber.    

Weighing in on the Hall of Fame Ballot

I never do this but this year I thought I would weigh in on the Hall of Fame Ballot.  To put my post in perspective here are some things I believe about the HOF:

• I think guys who chemically enhanced their numbers should not go in.   I mean, it is a game of numbers, right?   If you can't do an apples and apples comparison then you can't really determine if a guy is worthy.  And who knows how much someone's numbers were enhanced by the enhancements, so to speak.   These guys have made a lot of money due to their chemical enhancements and I think, in so doing, they forfeited the right to be in the HOF.
• I think guys who have violated other rules outside of the white lines should be able to go if it is at least 10 years after their death.   So Pete Rose not yet but Joe Jackson, yes.  

That being said, here are my comments on this year's ballot:

I see a surprise this year with NO ONE getting in although a lot of guys will get close.  Here's why

1. Roy Halladay - Some day but not yet

2. Todd Helton - Probably never.  Like a lot of guys, just not enough sustained greatness or greatness ABOVE their peers to get him into the HOF

3. Andy Pettitte - Not right now

4. Mariano Rivera - If not this year then definitely next year or the year after

5. Lance Berkman - Like Helton, a nice career but not enough to get him in.

6. Roy Oswalt - Definitely not this year, maybe never given that he did not put up numbers that would convince voters to put him in.  I think he steals votes from guys like Mussina and Schilling, though.

7. Travis Hafner - If Edgar Martinez gets in then maybe down the road but I really don't think he has the numbers.  He was more than a solid player but not enough to be a HOFer.  

8. Edgar Martinez - I don't think DHs should get in if that is the vast majority of their work.   That being said, he will get in sometime, just hopefully not this year.

9. Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling - Man, guys like this will probably get in but I think it may be from a veteran's committee down the road, especially since I think Halladay and Pettitte will split their vote enough that they won't get in.

10. Omar Vizquel -  Look, I have seen Ozzie Smith and Vizquel for years.    Omar deserves to be in.   There is no doubt about it.   You can pull all the analytics out of your butt that you want but Omar deserves to be in.   One other point:  I would venture to say that there are guys in the HOF right now, maybe a lot, who analytics would say clearly don't belong there and yet they are there.   I don't like retrofitting analytics to something that is a gut feeling decision and my gut tells me how great Omar was.   I doubt he gets in this time but my hope is that he gets in in the near future because he really does deserve it.

9, Manny Ramirez, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds - See comment above about chemical enhancements

10. Fred McGriff, Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield - These guys should never get in.   They were great players in their time but not THE best players in their time.   There is a difference between making the HOF and making a few all-star teams.   Longevity and standing head and shoulders above the competition puts you in the HOF if you are chemically clean and these guys just don't have the numbers to say that they are anything but very good major leaguers.

11.  The rest: Rick Ankiel, Jason Bay, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Ted Lilly, Derek Lowe, Darren Oliver, Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco, Miguel Tejada, Vernon Wells, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young. - I don't see any of these guys getting enough votes to stay on the ballot past this year.

Random New Year thoughts

Happy New Year!  Here are some random thoughts about Cleveland-area sports:

Browns - I only saw parts of two games this year:  Lions game (most) and Ravens game (last two minutes).  Mayfield looked bad in both those vignettes.  However, the future is bright.   He has the intangibles.   Even though it was a long time ago I can't imagine how different the reincarnation of the Browns franchise would have been had management taken the same care to protect Tim Couch as the current management took to protect Mayfield.   That first year or two will go down as one of the biggest mysteries for me in the history of Cleveland sports.  It also shows you how a franchise can spiral out of control and how a franchise can look like a Phoenix just by appropriately applied management.

Cavaliers -We are now in full rebuild mode.   However, JR Smith and Kevin Love are albatrosses around the Cavs' collective necks at this point.   Was it worth the few extra season ticket packages they sold to keep Smith, Love and company together?   It sure looks now like it wasn't.  Let's hope we get something out of those two goys and any other expendable players we dump before the trade deadline.

Indians - I understand the cost-cutting, still-competing tact the FO has to take.  But some of the early season trades for various 4A pitchers and sub-.200 hitters still are frustrating to a prospect-geek like me.  Considering that Tulo just signed a major league minimum deal with the Yankees, Luplow and Moroff and these pitchers (and even Bauers) better provide something to the 2019 Indians way above and beyond what their stats would suggest they will or WHY BOTHER?!?!  It will be interesting to see how the rest of off-season free agency goes and how the summer plays out as far as international amateur free agent signings.   Obviously teams aren't supposed to spend as much in Latin America as they are in the US based on signing pools for the Rule 4 draft and for foreign amateur players, I still think you will see the Indians spend like drunken sailors (relatively) in Latin America compared to the money they will spent on the US draft.   If are not looking closely I think you might end up ticked off about how we approach this year's draft...until you see how we spend in Latin America.   I hope then fans will get the shift in philosophy I see with the Indians in obtaining amateur talent.

Ohio State football - Glad to see Urban Meyer win his last game.     Hope Haskins leaves but the rest of the on-the-fence guys stay.   While Haskins is probably a year too early for the NFL he would clearly be a year too late if he came back to school and entered next year's draft.  He is the very rarest of cases where even though he hasn't played long in college there is nothing left for him to prove at that level.  That being said, there is a lot of talent on this roster and frankly, unless your goal is to be a playoff team, there is plenty of quarterback talent, too.   Is Justin Fields the icing on the cake that lets us make the playoff or would he be the fly in the ointment?  Frankly I don't think I want to find out as there are probably several other quarterback transfers who would love to be backups at OSU to finish their careers.   As far as OSU recruiting goes, looking at Clemson and Alabama it now appears that college football IS 100% about how many 5-star recruits you get and we got some more this year AND a lot of the 5-stars we got last year actually red-shirted so we should be good for years to come regardless of how the quarterback situation plays out.  That and some hopefully excellent upgrades by Ryan Day to fill out his coaching staff will make the quality of the product in 2019-2020 even better than the last few years.