Would you make this trade?

 OK, so I thought it would be fun to propose some trades and get people thinking about whether they would make these trades.  Before we get into proposed trades the Guardians would be involved in, let's look back on a couple of prospect-for-major leaguer trades from a couple of years ago:

Nolen Arenado and $51 million goes to the Cardinals for Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey and Jake Sommers.

Although this seems like a terrible trade for the Rockies, consider that Arenado could have opted out of his contract after the 2021 season AND, if he did, the Rockies would have only had to pay $16 million of that $51 million.  He could have also opted out after 2022, with the Rockies being on the hook for $5.57 million for that 2022 season.   So, there was risk for the Cardinals, in a worst case scenario.  The key here is that the Rockies got a return back AS IF Arenado was likely to turn down the remaining $200 million of his contract to go back to free agency after 2021.   

Clearly the Rockies could have done better if they had just gotten Gomber, Montero and a high level prospect, even if that prospect was a tools-limited guy like Dylan Carlson (very little power), who was rated 10th in the Cardinals system at the time.  Instead, the Rockies took the salary dump option, one that would not likely impact the trajectory of their rebuild.

Mike Clevinger and Greg Allen for Joey Cantillo, Gabriel Arias, Austin Hedges, Owen Miller, Josh Naylor and Paul Quantrill

In all fairness to the Padres, this trade could not have worked out worse.  Still, at the time, the headliner was Arias.  Cantillo was a teens-level prospect (still is), Hedges was excess catching and expensive and an offensive black hole (still is), Mller was a mid-teens prospect (and has played like one), Quantrill was a reliever and Naylor was an overweight outfielder, sub-power first baseman.   As funny as it seems, the headliner for the Guardians, Arias, has been the one prospect from this trade who has underwhelmed, if you want to call a top 10 prospect in your system underwhelming!!!

Plus, Clevinger got hurt and then hurt again and then pitched only OK when he did get back to the mound.  He had ace-in-waiting stuff and intelligence but, unfortunately, injuries have slowed his development. 

So the Guardians made out like bandits there because (a) the Padres overpaid thinking Clevinger was going to be who Musgroves tjurned out to be and the Guardians got surprising performances out of almost every player they received in the trade.

So, two teams trading prospects for veterans.  Both were quality veterans with one team (the Padres) overpaying and one team (Rockies) gambling Arenado would opt out and so they were trading a year of him for a handful of magic beans...which sounds a lot better than what they got for 7 years of Arenado.  

With the above in mind and some of the scary (Christian Walker, Anthony Rizzo) acquisitions I have heard of, here are 3 trades I would like to propose to you where we don't get back just .220 hitting, 3-true outcome guys in return and we enhance, to varying degrees, our chances of getting to and winning the World Series.

Would you make these trades?

1. Sean Murphy (C) and J. J. Puk (LHRP) for Gabriel Arias, Logan Allen, Owen Miller, Richie Palacios and Jhonkensy Noel.

My take: You could substitute any pitching prospect we have for Logan Allen except Gavin Williams, Bibee or Espino.  I would also be willing to substitute Bo Naylor for Noel if I got a low A or rookie ball minor leaguer of note back. PROVISO: I would only want to give up this much if I already had Jose Abreu signed.   Adding Murphy and Puk would only help this team incrementally and the extreme price is not worth that incremental improvement which likely, in and of itself, would not allow us to catch the Yankees or Astros in talent or even stay ahead of the White Sox and Twins if either or both of those two teams put together a stellar season in 2023.

2. Bryan Reynolds for Oscar Gonzalez and Jake Fox

My take: Any Cleveland fan, after Gonzalez's 2022, would probably spit on this deal but remember that it is somewhat possible that Gonzalez, based on his track record, is just a one-year wonder.   Reynolds is far from being a be-all-end-all guy but he is more likely to give you production next year than Gonzalez and some, me included, might contend we would be selling high on Gonzalez with the Pirates counting on Reynolds not increasing his value during the season to make a deadline deal more lucrative.  For me, I would not do this deal but it does give you more veteran presence than Gonzalez brings.  Note that if we would do this deal it would not be tied to any other deal.  It is a simple future-for-present value deal.

3. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani for Gavin Williams, Oscar Gonzalez, Daniel Espino, Gabriel Arias, Johnkensy Noel, Milan Tolentino and Bo Naylor

My take: Weird you say?   The Guardians would never take on this kind of salary you say?  The Angels will never go into a rebuild of the type that this trade would signify you say?  All hese are valid points but looking at their roster and looking at the rosters of Houston and Seattle I don't see the Angels being able to outlast these other two teams to rise to to the top.  The Guardians would be giving up much of their future for two guys who might have reached their top value (Ohtani) or are on a downward arc (Trout).  Not only would we be spending a HUGE amount of prospect capital, but we would also be doubling our payroll!  Oh, and we would only be guaranteed having Ohtani for the 2023 season.

2023 - The over/under

 So let's do an overview of what we can expect from our roster in 2023.  That is will they do better (OVER), the same (SAME) or worse (UNDER) next year compared to their performance this year.   Now this analysis is done without considering unexpected injuries or trades that might open up or close up playing opportunities for the current roster.  So, let's go:

Jose Ramirez - OVER -Assuming his thumb surgery and rehabilitation goes well and he doesn't have any other injuries that linger, he should clearly surpass his numbers this year.  I am thinking similar numbers of doubles and triples as this year but 6-10 more HRs and about 15 points higher in BA.  

Andres Gimenez - UNDER - If he can give us .260 with 15 HRs, 20 SBs, a few more walks and a few less Ks than this year I'll take it.

Amed Rosario - SAME - Very pedestration year this year.  No reason to believe he won't repeat it next year.  I don't see a lot of room for improvement but his current numbers, with additional RBIs is we strengthen the bottom of our order,  would be great.

Josh Naylor - OVER - Hey, I didn't think he would have the year he had this year after his surgery.  Imagine 2023 when he is another year removed from his injury/surgery.  I'd like to see 30 HRs from him but I will settle for 25, with all his other numbers remaining the same or improving just a tad.

Catcher - OVER - Instead of a player this is a position.  I think we trade for Sean Murphy whic upgrades both the offense and defense on this team a lot. This position will get better next year, one way or another.

Kwan - SAME - Look, this is generous.  At some point the league can figure out how to keep Kwan from getting singles.  He doesn't have the power to make them pay for mistakes so Kwan will scratch and clawe for every advantage he can gain and will, in the end, be better at some things and worse at others with a net change of close to zero compared to 2022.

Straw - OVER - This is an easy one.  Once the season ended I expected Straw to come out...with a report that he played hurt all year, likely the result of some tumble he took in the OF.  But it was Ramirez and Gimenez that came clean.  Still, even if it was just the red-shirt sophomore slump, I expect him to get better offensively and stay the same or get better on defense

Gonzalez - SAME - I would love to say OVER here but I just don't buy it yet.  He would have to go 35 doubles and 25 HRs for a full season and I think we are likely to see .265, 20 HR and thirty doubles as he works through the painful sophomore year that sinkts other 2nd year players.  I also think he could have a crash and burn second season and go the way of Bobby Bradley.  It's too early to tell but his dramatic, sustained rise this year compared to 2021 says he still have improvement in the tank that he can reach for.

Beiber - SAME

McKenzie - SAME

Quantrill- SAME

Plesac - OVER - I may be the only Guardian's fan who thinks this but Plesac SHOULD get another chance.  I mean, he should be pretty much an underpaid 5th starter even on a good team.

Civale - OVER - I think he has a healthy year and does well as our 4th starter.

Clase - UNDER - How can he get better or even stay the same?  He was unbelieveably automatic this year and his playoff usage could impact his performance and/or health next year.  

Hentges - SAME

Stephan - SAME

Karinchak - SAME

Morgan - SAME

Morris - OVER

Gaddis - OVER - I think he makes an impact next year.  I really do.

Curry - OVER- I think his impact is in the pen and it is not felt until the second half of the year but it is still more than this year.

If we make the trades I want:

Abreu, Murphy and Puk - OVER - If we trade for/sign these guys and they avoid injuries I think they all have significant bumps over their performance year.

Others - OVER - I see 2023 like a mini-2022.  Mini because we won't have as many rookies.  However, the ones that we have will mostly do well for a net improvement over our bench from last year.  

As far as the overall team record, I am not ready, with the change to the schedule format next year, to make that prediction.  However, given what I understand, I think if we repeat our record from 2022, this will be an INCREDIBLE net improvement.  More on that later

Updated Guardians' Top 50 Prospects

 OK, now that we are entering the off-season here is my latest list of top prospects for the Guardians.  I am not including Palacious, Pilkington or McCarty here but I am including Arias, Benson and Freeman.

1. Gavin Williams 

2. George Valera

3. Bo Naylor

4. Tyler Freeman

5. Daniel Espino

6. Tanner Bibee

7. Brayan Rocchio

8. Gabriel Arias

9. Cody Morris

10. Nolan Jones

Comments: This goes against the grain a little bit but I don't know how I can have a guy who was injured for the entire season, Espino, as my #1.  We have heard it was his knee, there are rumors it was his shoulder AND his knee.  Most of the time we have heard radio silence.  Given all that we have heard, and haven't, #5 is pretty generous at this point.   I like Cody Morris more than most and I think Freeman has a good future, maybe just not with Cleveland.  Who can tell?  Nolan Jones is a big question mark for me.  I would have played him and not Arias at 1B down the stretch at Columbus and if I knew I wasn't going to do that, I would have assigned him to the AFL because, frankly, on this team, with his both type, he NEEDS to learn to play 1B.  A left-handed hitting, tall, athletic guy with power who can play first, third and RF has value as a utility guy on a ML team, especially if he is cheap (and homegrown).  I don't understand why they don't see that, especially with SpongeBob claiming RF and Brennan behind him now.  The only thing lobbying against Jones is his age, I guess, making him less precocious and more on a normal trajectory which, when you have so many precocious prospects, may give the misimpression that Jones is lacking.  I may be rating Rocchio too low and Valera too high.  They are cut from the same mold: guys who were not uber-successful in their first taste at AAA.  Both ooze potential and, in Rocchio's case, defensive polish, but both have to come out smokng with the bats next year.  If the Guardians really think that they will then you don't trade them as what is on paper for both of them would make their trade value much lower than their projected value.

11. Chase DeLauter

12. Jose Tena

13. Angel Martinez

14. Jhonkensy Noel

15. Carlos Vargas

16. Xzavion Curry

17. Logan T. Allen

18. Joey Cantillo

19. Jake Fox

20. Justin Campbell

Comments: I put a lot of weight on velocity for pitchers.  I saw Logan Allen's velocity become pedestrian after a few starts at AAA and he started getting hit around.  I see that as a red flag for him. Ditto for Justin Campbell, who I see as another low velocity guy.   At the same time Vargas' velocity bumps him up the rankings for me.  He seems poised to pitch out of the bullpen in the future and I see him having that role in Cleveland, assuming he stays healthy and continues to progress rapidly, sometime next May or June.  Joey Cantillo would be higher on my list but he was hurt the last part of this season I have questions about his return for the beginning of next season.  If he isn't ready for spring training I see him dropping even more on this list.  I am not sold on DeLauter and I would have gone with Susac, especially if we will lose Bo Naylor this winter as I suspect we will.  

21. Will Brennan

22. Hunter Gaddis

23. Peyton Battenfield

24. Jaison Chourio

25. Petey Halpin

26. Parket Messick

27. Will Benson

28. Bryan Lavastida

29. Doug Nikhazy

30. Milan Tolentino

Comments:  I am all about performance and Brennan performed although, with Kwan in LF, I can envision Brennan as more of a 4th outfielder. type.  The Guardians apparently like what they have seen from Benson in CF although he didn't hit at all during his time in Cleveland. I think both Gaddis and Lavastida may be under-valued at this point based on their 2022 numbers (Gaddis' based on his poor performance in the majors as an underprepared pitcher) and I look for both to have dominant seasons at Columbus next year.  It is way too soon to give up on them.  I am including Battenfield this high NOT on the basis of his performance as a starter but, rather, on his potential to be a reliever.  His conversion to starter really was solidified this year but, concurrently, his velocity was down and, like Logan Allen, got hit around.  On the other hand, I see him as a solid setup man where his velocity would likely tick up to where he is more effective, similar to what we have seen multiple times in the past, most recently Zach Plesac at the end of the year when he ended up pitching out of the bullpen after returning from teh DL. Messick is only up this high because he is left-handed.  He is another classic low velocity guy who could get chewed up at higher levels as he faces a higher percentage of patient, professional hitters.  

31. Angel Genao

32. Tanner Burns

33.  Alexfri Planez

34. Isaiah Greene

35. Jacob Zibin

36. Ethan Hankins

37. Joe Lampe

38. Mason Hickman

39. Ryan Webb

40. Gabriel Rodriguez

Comments: Burns' velocity was down.  I watched him pitch a number of times and, without enough velocity, I don't see him competing at the big-league level.  I am not sold on Lampe at all and think his lack of power and left-handed hitting in this system may doom him, if he can even hit for average, get on base and show some speed.  I am willing to gamble on Hickman's conversion to late inning reliever (something I have been asking for since I saw his sub-average velocity over the past couple of seasons) is going to make him take off as a prospect. Hankins and Webb are injured guys who I think could have breakout seasons next year.  For Zibin I want to see the drive to succeed.  I hope it's there but it is still up in the air for me as to whether it is and whether his really excessive bonus was worth the investment.  Rodriguez may be the most likely guy we could lose in the ML Rule 5.

41. Tommy Mace

42. Jack Leftwich

43. Gabriel Rodriguez

44. Jonathon Rodriguez

45. Lenny Torres Jr.

46. Cade Smith

47. Micah Pries

48. Luis Durango Jr.

49. Carson Tucker

50. (tied). Hunter Stanley

50. (tied) Will Dion

Comments: In these 11 we have lots of question marks.  Will guys' tools play at the next highest level?  Will they find the missing piece that makes the rest of their tools play up?  Will they undergo a position switch that will allow them to excel (e.g., could someone who can hit be converted to catcher like Lavastida was).?  This is where a blogger really starts to reach to see if he can come up with a gem who breaks out next year.  

There are probably more Dominican prospects that I have not considered and maybe even other injured players that I have undervalued due to them not being around this year but, there it is, my current Guardians' top 50 prospects.  If I have missed anyone obvious please let me know.

Random thoughts for a Friday

2-21-2022 EDITED TO INCLUDE BOB COSTAS COMMENTS 

1. Congrats to Beiber, Straw, Ramirez, Gimenez, Kwan and the Guardians for being nominated for Gold Glove awards.  Never really understood those awards as I think some of the choices are comical (didn't a first baseman win it a number of years ago when he was overwhelmingly used as the DH?).  But, be that as it may, it is good to know that what we see every day is recognized around the league.

2. Age brings perspective and you learn to not sweat the little things.  Still, there are things that rankle me.  Here's on that I saw on the Guardians Prospective Twitter site recently.  There was a picture of 10th round draft pick this year, Jacob Zibin.:

 The caption to the post that appears to be from Jacob Zibin was "Off season". 

It's hard to put into words what offends me about this. Just an 18 year old kid showing off a prize catch from a fishing trip, right? 

I admit to being nitpicky on this but we just paid this kid the largest bonus ($1.2 million) ever given to ANY player drafted in the 10th round of the draft.  This also cost us a penalty amount as we exceeded our bonus pool and what we get from him is that he's enjoying his off-season.   

The post wasn't the issue for me, it was the impression it could leave.  If he had just said:

"Enjoying a little R&R after instructs.  Now back to work!  Go #Guardians"

Jacob, I suggest you post some videos of you working out and do it soon.  It will go a long way to give the impression that you are taking this professional baseball thing seriously.

Kind of reminds me of Myles Straw last winter trying to monetize his name on some fansite.   Just didn't sit right with me.

Again, just me.  But impressions become a person's reality real fast.

3. Talking AFL, this is one of the most intriguing seasons for Guardians' prospects I have seen.  Questions that come out of this include: 

a) Why is Angel Martinez there?  Auditioning him as trade bait?

b) Will they really make an effort to turn Mason Hickman into a full-time reliever?

c) What is the future for David Fry in this organization?  Is it at all possible they will roster him this winter?

d) Have the Guardians moved Cade Smith up on their minor league reliever depth chart?

e) What is the future for Lenny Torres>

f) Do the Guardians think they may have a Kwan-clone in Koxx?

4. Thinking about who the sleepers will be entering next year's minor league season.  If they survive the Rule 5 the guys who come to mind for me are Gabriel Rodriguez and Alexfri Planez.  More on that later when I recap the minor league seasons. 

5. About Bob Costas - Look, this guy is an icon in sports broadcasting...especially in his own mind.  Networks still think that he is viable as an announcer as they keep hiring him.   Can't argue with that.  What I have witnessed in the past two weeks, though, is not excusable. Media (at least one guy) in New York ripped him for his constant harping on the Yankees and Yankees history during the ALDS.  I have to admit I turned down the sound of the broadcast and listened to Hammy, et al.  However, the bits that I did pick up from Costas and crew from replays and listening to small bits of his broadcast convinced me that have favored the Yankees in almost everything he said, including when he would say needless negative things about Cleveland and its players (e.g., Zach Plesac comments in the 9th inning of a game where he was just in to mop up in a loss).  

The best way to describe what I heard from him in these broadcasts was, if I didn't know better, I would have thought I was listening to Yankees broadcasters.   

Then he has the balls to go on Cleveland sports talk radio to try to justify what he did.  And he proceeded to just dig himself a bigger hole and climb into it and lay down and start to pull the dirt in around him.  Some of his comments about Hammy were, in my view, condescending and attempted to put himself on a higher pedestal than Hammy.  Yeah, Bob, we don't expect you to be a Cleveland homer.  Why, there is no money in that.  What we do expect is for you to be neutral and supportive of all teams you broadcast about.   When the media in NY essentially says you were acting like a Yankees homer and the fans and media in Cleveland know you were acting that way, there is not much left to say.

You see, Bob, I have heard a professional announcer or two in my lifetime.  Jack Buck comes to mind.  You would never see him do such a homer job.  It just wasn't in him when he was broadcasting on national TV.  He was, like you, a professional.  The difference is that he did it without ego and without an eye on his next paycheck.

You weren't asked to do the play-by-play of the LCS broadcasts.  To me, that says everything.   Enjoy your retirement.  It will be well-deserved and I hope that it starts immediately. 

Off-season wish list summary

 So, our wish list is Jose Abreu, Sean Murphy and a quality lefty power reliever.   You could wish on a star for more but the players who played this year and even our current minor leaguers who are close to the majors have shown that, say, bringing in a veteran power-hitting outfielder would be redundant and waste resources (unneeded extra salary, prospects, or both)

Hey, could Oscar Gonzalez fall on his face next year?  Yes, of course.  Could Steven Kwan regress.  Absolutely.  The issue is that we gambled this year on the quality of minor leaguers and with the quality still in the high minors and the success this year of using internal prospect options, I see no reason to change except with the 3 guys/positions above.

Anything else I think we would address at the trading deadline.

So, front office.  Your job is simple 

(1) Get us Abreu, Murphy and a power lefty to complement Hentges

(2) Don't gut the farm system unnecessarily doing it. 

Just a couple of tweaks to a 92-70 team that I think will energize the players and, hopefully, the ticket-buying fan base and not break the bank like certain moves would likely do.

On to the offseason - Part #5 - Need #3

Before talking about this need, which is pitching-based, let's look at our pitching on my proposed 40 man roster

Starting Pitching

First string: Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Civale, Plesac

Backups: Curry, Gaddis, McCarty, Battenfield, Cody Morris, Pilkington

A little further down: Logan T. Allen, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Daniel Espino Joey Cantillo, Tanner Burns

Comments: You can never have enough pitching.  However, in terms of redundancy, of acceptable starting pitching and even guys who might not be ready on opening day but could impact the rotation in a very positive way later in the season, I think we are in pretty good shape. I don't, however, think we can trade Plesac, however, as I think any internal option would be a downgrade at this point and why would you trade Plesac ang get another starter in a trade (losing prospects) or through free agency (bad investment compared to what you would pay Plesac).

Right Handed Relievers:

First string: Clase, Stephan, Karinchak, Sandlin,De Los Santos, Morgan, Morris, 

Backups: Curry, Gaddis, Battenfield, Carlos Vargas

A little further down the line: Espino, Mason Hickman, Mikolajchak, Enright, Cade Smith

Left Handed Relievers:

First string: Hentges

Backups: McCarty

A little further down the line: Tim Herrin

Comments: I think from the right-side we are in roughly the same place as we are with the starting pitching, we have a lot of options, more than I think most teams have especially if we use Gaddis, Curry, Batenfield and Vargas.

However, it is in left-handed relieving that we are not deep.  So, that becomes Need #3

LEFT HANDED POWER RELIEVER

I have already mentioned that we might fill this position with a guy like AJ Puk, combining him in the trade to get Sean Murphy.  Other contenders have done this, both in the off-season and at the deadline so I think it can work.  You just have to add another prospect or two.  

Still, I am willing to leave this to the Guardians' FO.  They have the analytics to, hopefully, allow us to pick exactly the type of lefty reliever we need and even sign a couple of 6-year free agents to minor league deals or a solid major league lefty reliever and a couple of 6-year guys for backup.  It would have been nice just to continue to groom Anthony Gose but he will miss next season so we have to look elsewhere.

On to the offseason: Part 4 - Need #2 (and maybe #3, at the same time)

 Catching, oh, catching.  

I am such a fan of Austin Hedges.  This guy should never have played more than one year in the majors the way he hits.  But his overall value to the team?  It was there both on the field and in the locker room.

However, if we have a place where we can improve the offense without losing defense than it is at catcher.

So, my second addition to this club in the off-season is

Sean Murphy

Hey, when I look at his stats I am truly worried that this season could be a career year for him offensively.  And he only hit .250 with an OPS of .759.  He could end up being a lifetime .220/.310/.410 hitter.  Wilson Contreras would be a MUCH better offense catcher.  But Contreras is a free agent and will be highly sought after.  We ain't getting him if we wanted to and, looking at his defense, I don't want Contreras.  

The Guardians wanted Murphy at the deadline and didn't get him.  I think they get him now if the A's are not total a-holes like the Pirates were last year about Bryan Reynolds (how did that work out, Buccos?).

OK, so that improves our offense significantly and may, in fact, actually improve our defense.  But at what cost?

Some may say we should just go with Bo Naylor.  This would make it a family affair and, frankly, how many 20 HR, 20 SB catchers are there?  The issue with Bo Naylor is that he might not be able to be an effective offensive weapon at the beginning of 2023.  His history tells us that and portends, even when he does settle in at a level, that he isn't necessarily going to be a .300 hitter, maybe settling in more to the .260/.340/.380 range.  In other words, he may be, by mid-season, what Sean Murphy was this year.

So, my friends, it all comes down to this: Do we make do until Bo Naylor is ready to really help this team (middle of 2023 or beginning of 2024) or do we pull the trigger on a deal now?

The answer lies, as it did in July, is what would be the cost IN ADDITION to Bo Naylor.  Because, if e make a trade for Sean Murphy, Bo Naylor IS going the other way.

So let's hypothesize on what we would have to add:

1 middle infield prospect ready for the majors

1 starting pitcher, ready for the majors

1 outfielder ready for the majors

1 throw-in guy

So, in summary, the trade could look something like: Naylor, Freeman, Palacios, Battenfield and Owen Miller for Murphy.

Is that too much.? Maybe.  I don't know if I would pay it.  Maybe I would ask for a second player and maybe substitute a higher ranked prospect.  All the players we are giving up are redundant to what we have and, except for Freeman and Naylor, don't project to be any more than solid major leaguers.  Still, I might ask for Sam Moll as we have a need for another lefty reliever.  I would really like AJ Puk but we are likely to have to sweeten the pot significantly (Logan Allen instead of Battenfield and/or Brennan instead of Palacios) to get that done.

Like I said, I am pretty sure Sean Murphy is coming and Bo Naylor is going.  I would like to limit the damage in addition to Naylor and Freeman (or Arias) and if we can fill our third need, a second lefty reliever, so we could be done trading, that would be great, too.

On to the offseason - Part 3 - Need #1

 OK, so we have looked at the 40-man roster.  It's full and that's after trading Owen Miller and DFAing Anthony Gose.

Still, our first need is one I would fill through free agency and that player is:

Jose Abreu

In 1994 we added Eddie Murray on a 3-year deal in his age 38 season and it made a world of difference to our locker room.  He produced, too, but you can always get guys who produce.  But guys who produce PLUS add to the locker room, that's what this team needs to keep improving..

Abreu adds a righthanded bat and slots into the DH/first base situation that will ease our need to rely on Josh Naylor all the time.  Naylor gets some rest against the best lefties and in certain other games to, hopefully, keep him fresh.  Plus, Abreu's addition is minimal disruption to the rest of the roster, how we play baseball and I perceive him as EXACTLY what we need in our clubhouse to keep the chemistry going and add veteran leadership that will help on and off the field.

Plus, he is experienced playing in cold weather and in the AL Central, which are both added plusses.

Finally, he allows us to save our 40-man roster assets for trades, trade capital we will need when it comes to our other needs, that I will cover in a later blog posting.

Now, to get Abreu, it is going to cost us a 3-year deal at roughly $55 million.  Still, I would sign him the first day you can sign free agents.  I think if we rush in he might feel comfortable enough with the Guardians and AL Central he might want to get the FA process over with.    Is Abreu worth $55 million and will we regret the deal sometime in year 3?  No and yes, respectively.   Still, I am so sure this is the right deal that I would get it done first.

On to the off-season - Part II - An early look at our needs and early thoughts on potential solutions - 40 man roster construction

 OK, with this season and post-season fresh in our minds here are my kneejerk thoughts:

1) 40 man roster

You always have to start there.  I think they should protect Angel Martinez, Joey Cantillo and Peyton Battenfield.  Now Cantillo was hurt for the last half of the season and has an injury history.  If his current injury is significant and it will basically keep him from playing most or all of 2023, they could gamble on leaving him unprotected.  People have questioned whether we protect Battenfield due to his low velocity this year and the fact that he was hit around in the last half of the year.  Note that he was a reliever in college and only recently converted to a starter.  I think he has potential as a starter but equal or probably greater potential as a high leverage reliever going forward.  I think you protect him for that reason. 

Given that, here is an early look (similar to what I mentioned previously) of what our off-season 40-man roster should look like:

Catchers (2) - Naylor and Lavastida

NOTE: Hedges is not worth what it will cost him and Maile is replaceable.  He could be brought back on a minor league deal but he shouldn't occupy a roster spot this winter.

Infielders (10) - Ramirez, Rosario, Gimenez, Naylor, Arias, Freeman, Rocchio, Noel, Martinez, Tena

NOTE: This does not list Jones as an infielder but he can be sort of a super utility guy, playing third, first and RF.  We likely cnanot keep Martinez AND Tena on the roster.  One would have to be traded eventually but, for the purposes of this exercise, they should both be rostered now.  As you can see, now Owen Miller.  I hope we have moved on from him and we can get something useful for him instead of having to DFA him.  They have plenty of time.  Please, though, no more Tobias Myer-type guys.  That was a Bruce Ellingsen-like disaster we may have to live with for years.

Outfielders (8) - Benson, Brennan, Gonzalez, Kwan, Palacios, Straw, Valera, Jones

NOTE: I see this outfield as being locked in.  I cannot see adding someone in from the outside as I think this is a workable group with potential, all of whom are capable of playing effectively for the Guardians in 2023.  Effectvely as in Oscar Gonzalez-type effectively.

Pitchers (20) - Battenfield, Bieber, Cantillo, Civale, Clase, Curry, De Los Santos, Gaddis, Hentges, Karinchak, McCarty, McKenzie, Morgan, Morris, Pilkington, Plesac, Quantrill, Sandlin, Stephan, Vargas

NOTE: This is a complete 40 man roster. For this to work we would have to DFA Anthony Gose.  It is unfortunate but, given his age and that he would not contribute in 2022 I see no choice.  Depneding on the severity of Sandlin's injury, we might DFA him, too, if he won't pitch in 2023.  McCarty is the wildcard.  I think he can be effective as a long-man, swing man but he is not tall and, if we got a good lefthanded reliever through free agency or trade, he might be expendable.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

If we are going to add anyone through free agency we would need to subtract from this roster.  Trading would be easier as you would subtract from this roster while adding needed players.  The key to trading is that Antonnetti and Chernoff need to get value for our extra assets.  The days of 'what did you expect to get for a guy like this?' have to be done.  Think what we got for Joey Wendle, not what we got for Mark Mathias (no disrespect meant against Andres Melendez but I don't think that was nearly an even trade) or Tobias Myers trades. Returns that will help our team now and good value in those trades is what I am talking about.  The FO needs to show they can make those trades, not get robbed in those trades.

On to the off-season part 1 - Questions we are left with.

 OK, so the corpse of the 2022 season is not even cold yet and I want to jump feet first into the off-season?

WTF????

But that it is what it is about, right?  How can we get better in the future?  

The first place I want to start is to ask some questions about decisions that were made in the second half of the season and what they mean for the future.

1) Why was Gabriel Arias on this playoff roster? 

He started the year in the majors, got sent down, pouted, got hurt, performed mediocre when he got of the DL in Columbus.

Why was he groomed at 1B for the playoffs and why not someone else?

2) Why was Tyler Freeman not put on the postseason roster instead of Will Benson?

Freeman provided versatility and some hitting ability from the right side.  Francona was loathe to put Benson in as a hitter and, when he did, Benson didn't perform.  That comes on the heels of an expectedly poor opening showing in the majors by Benson who takes a year or two to conquer a level before he moves on to the next level and repeats that cycle.  

3) Why, given the makeup of this team, did Nolan Jones just play the OF when he went back to Columbus?  

Jones is tall, has played the hot corner, is athletic.  He should be being groomed as a firstbasemen.  He should have likely been in the AFL learning and playing first base.  

What does it say that they just stuck him in RF and didn't work to incdrease his worth to this team who needs more hitting at 1B, not another left-handed hitting outfielder. 

4) Why was Zach Plesac not used more in the postseason?

Hey, it was pretty obvious that Francona, in game 5, was going to use Civale to cover the first 3-4 innings with Hentges to clean up if Civale ever faltered.   Then he was going to cover the remaining innings with Stephan, Karinchak and Clase, no matter how many innings that was.  

The question to me is why?  Hammy and Rosenhaus commented how Plesac had an uptick in velocity in his stint in game 4.  Duh!  He is a starter who paces himself to go deep in the game.  Let him loose knowing he is going only 1-2 innings and this is what you get.

I just don't know what it means that they didn't use him more in the postseason.  They could have used him in game 5 instead of stressing out our prime relievers, risking injury to them.  They didn't want Bieber to get hurt but they were willing to risk it with Clase?  Doesn't make sense to me and Plesac could have helped.

5) Was Straw significantly hurt during the season?  

This is one that has been nagging at me for awhile.  He just looked sluggish and as if he was in pain most of the season, starting about mid-May.  

6) Was Ramirez hurt at the end?

Hammy alluded to both of his thumbs being hurt at the end.   If so I hope he doesn't need surgery.  He clearly needs to stop sliding in head first and he needs to be more selective on his pitch selection so he doesn't jam himself all up and hurt his thumb. 

Hopefully we can get answers to these questions in the future from Antonnetti and Chernoff.  It will be very enlightening as to where we are going this off-season.

Entertainment - I try to always come back to that

 I think you know where I am going with this.  

It could be considered the refrain of a loser, someone who has accepted that his condition is as a lifelong fan of an afterthought in professional sports, the Cleveland Guardians.

Yeah, you could think that, I guess.

But my reality is that the Guardians are my entertainment.  Some people like to go to movies, some people like to binge watch TV shows., some people like to watch sports, some people like to surf the net for whatever they are looking for. 

Whatever your particular armchair activity is, it is likely a form of entertainment and even escape from your day-to-day.

For me, it was, is and will be the Cleveland Guardians of the present and the future.

That is why I want to thank the players, the coaching and support staff and the front office for giving us this team and allowing them to be entertainment, and very good entertainment this year.

Interestingly, not once during the season did I say "Man, maybe this is the year we rid ourselves of the curse of Rocky Colavito".  And even in the most recent series I never said to myself or others "If we only spent more money maybe we could have won the whole thing."

I was simply entertained and, often, amazed by this team.  

Yes, it was frustrating at times and exasperating at times when we couldn't mash our richer opponents.  But, in the end, it was entertainment.

So, no, this is not life or death.  I do not have to see a Cleveland WS champion before I die to avoid having a hole in my existence.  I will leave the feeling that, 'yes, we can finally shed that afterthought status' to those who come after me as lifelong fans when they see that dream fulfilled if it doesn't happen in my lifetime.

For me, this is simply the joy of watching my team play and have success.  I love the Cleveland baseball team, whether you call it the Indians or the Guardians. They always provide me entertainment and that, to me, is what watching professional baseball is about.

In the posts that come after this I will talk about what lies ahead and what we should do going forward to make this good team into a great team...and what desperation moves we should avoid making as we are chasing that first WS championship since 1948.  

But, for this one moment, I want to say thank you Guardians.  You were a joy and treasure to watch and, for young fans, you gave them memories they can tell their kids and grandkids about.  Now THAT'S entertainment.

I am at peace with this season

 Before I go all in on this game today, as I will shortly, I wanted to share with those of you who read this blog that I am at peace with what the Guardians have accomplished this season.  The thought that we (me included) would be second-guessing a Guardians' baseball game on October 17th is the sweetest of dichotomies.  

I truly believe they have a chance to win today.  Not just a puncher's chance in a heavyweight boxing match but, rather, a chance, by playing Guardians baseball, of advancing to the next round of the playoffs

Looking back over this season as I did this morning, reminded me of what joy and relief from the every day that this team has brought to me this season.  They are, to Cleveland and especially to Cleveland baseball fans, whether you refer to yourselves as fans of the Indians or the Guardians, a blessing that doesn't come around every day.  Our manager, Terrry Francona, is a blessing that doesn't come to Cleveland even every generation.  He has smoothed out the lean times and raised up the good times to a higher level.  I can honestly say, remembering the Indians from when I was a kid, that the possibility of having a winning team every year never crossed my mind, let alone was an expectation. 

This season has shown me what a group of individuals, working on the field and behind the scenes, can accomplish, even in the presence of adversity and long odds.

So, here's to our Guardians and here's to you, my fellow fans.

Now, it's time to go get my game face on.

Go Guardians!

Why I am not the manager

 If I was the Guardians' manager here is what I would do/would have set myself up to do tonight:

Pitching

1) Civale, if he can get through it, goes through the batting order one time, exactly.

2) Plesac comes in and gives us 2 innings or whatever he needs to to get us through 5 innings.

3)  De Los Santos gives us one inning

4) Karinchak gives us one inning

5) Stephan gives us one inning

6) Clase gives us 1 inning (and no more)

Hopefully that would be enough, with us having some offense, to win the game.

Here is what I am afraid is going to happen:

1) Tito tries to get 5 out of Civale. The problem is that this is what he thinks he needs out of Civale based on how he plays the game out in his mind.  He isn't thinking straight and is putting too much faith in his starter, something he has done too much in the past.   What actually is likely to happen in this scenario is that Civale goes the first 3, giving up one run (very passable and manageable performance) but then gets touched up for 2 runs in the 4th and is removed with one out with De Los Santos (or Hentges, depending on the matchups) finishes the inning.  By then we are down 3-0 or 3-2 and that puts us in a hole we try to crawl out of the rest of the game.  He then needs one more inning to get through 5 and stretches out Enyel another inning. He then goes through his bullpen as above, giving up one more run.  The question is, is the horse out of the barn by then?

2) The offense either saves us (if they are patient and hit good pitches and we get some luck) or they doom us by scoring only one run by trying too hard.

We either win 6-3 or lose 3-1.

I think we saw last night and at the end of the season the following:

1) Plesac can be really good in short stretches where he can let it all go.  In that sense he reminds me of Adam Wainwright when he was converted to a reliever and carried the Cardinals to a WS championship.

2) For guys like Morris with good stuff and the other team not having a book on him, you can get up to 2 innings out of him, one time, during a short series without exposing him.  Unfortunately we burned that bridge last night and putting him into tonight's game has a chance of success, to be sure, but also a dramatically enhanced peril of them exposing him.  If we can get through tonight I think you can wash, rinse and repeat a couple of times with Morris in the Houston series.

3) Morgan is not someone you want to pitch against the Yankees.  He gives up too much hard contact and all it takes is one time to get us too far behind to catch up.

4) You went to the well two times already with Clase going multiple innings after not doing it during the regular season.  Let's not go to that well again.  We need him for the rest of his contract, not just this season.

Tito is the master and I have faith in him but I would do things differently, I think.   And that is why I am not the Guardians' manager.

Clutch - Real, Mirage or Luck

 OK, well, we're down to it, aren't we?  

When the going get tough, the tough get going.  Challenging situations can lead you to transformational experiences.  Step us...today's another opportunity to move towards your dreams.  Be brave and push through challenges...because you can.  If you can dream it, you can do it.

and, today, my favorite

Be so good they can't ignore you.

The point of this post is that I don't know if batting average with runners in scoring position or % runners stranded or things like that are real.  I don't know what it really means if a guy, in the playoffs, has a higher value on those stats or other, more important stats analytics people like than he does in the regular season.

In a nutshell, I don't know if "clutch" is a real thing or if it is just an aberration.based on small sample size and situational circumstances that are impossible to reproduce in some algorithm.  

I do know one thing for certain.  If you try too hard you aren't going to be successful at sports.  

On the other hand if you do what you are supposed to do, if you use your abilities to their maximum within the situation described by the analytics, you will have a good chance of success.

I don't know if there is anyone on the Guardians' roster who we can really say is 'clutch'.   They are a bunch of guys with ability who have, for the most part, played within a system that allows them to maximize their ability.  

Especially on the hitting side of things today, that is what we need.  Rosario should not be swinging at pitches in other batter's box.   Ramirez should not be jumping at balls that are not hittable just because his exceptional bat-to-ball skills allows him to reach them.  People should not be pulling balls into the shift when they can get hits by simply exploiting the shift.  Francona should not have a plan in mind that counts on a bunch of people doing things today that they haven't done all, or most of the year or that you wouldn't expect them to know how to do or be physically able to do against the Yankees in the deciding game of the series.  Francona has the secret sauce to make this work today but he needs to use it.  He can't expect a guy to give him that one extra inning or even that one extra out.  

So, is clutch a real thing?  I think it can be, if you just stick to script that has worked so well.  

On that I will end with another inspirational saying:

"Very few who envision themselves being heroes end up as heroes" - Cleveland Guardians Perspecdtive, 2022

Just be the best you can be today, Guardians.  Don't try to be individual heroes.  Be a team and when your number is called, do YOUR job and nothing more.  If we win today, it WILL be a team effort and, late tonight, we will look back at it and see about a half a dozen guys or more who made significant contributions to today's win.  

Go Guardians!

167-0 and 3 in 5

 OK, so I am not a twitter aficionado, hardly ever posting on that medium. But I was taken aback when I saw a couple of Twitter posts last night.

167-0  

When I saw the ESPN Stat group's twitter post last night posted on Cleveland Guardians Prospective, I was amazed how the comments, retweets and likes kept going up like when I am watching the screen when I am filling up my car at the gas pump.  I mean, jumping by the tens and hundreds in a matter of minutes, real time, was amazing to watch.

This number, if you have been following along today, was the Yankees post-season record in all the playoff games they had played in history when they led by 2 or more runs going into the 9th inning...before last night.  That history, I assume, extends for over 100 years, which is another way of saying that what happened last night falls into the category of uber-historical, if such a category exists.  

You can probably go to any senior's center in the Cleveland area and ask and at least one person will say they were at Len Barker's perfect game.  The joke is that the attendance at that game was 100,000 if you believe all the people who said they were there.  

Well, there have been 23 perfect games in baseball history, one in the playoffs.  That is how historical last night was.  If you allow me a little latitude it was just as historic as Don Larson's perfecto! 

That's the kind of history people in Cleveland should be talking about for the next 100 years, I would think....and in 50 years those of us still alive should be able to poll senior center attendees and get about 100,000 of them to say they were at last night's game.

3 in 5

Another stat that came out of last night's game is that Oscar Gonzalez has tied the major league record for most game-winning RBIs  by a player in the first 5 playoff games in a post-season and, by definition, in the first 5 playoff games of his career.  

Again, this is the stuff of which legends are made, the same thing I said after his walk-off vs Tampa last Saturday.

To repeat the same walk-off feat in the same dramatic fashion exactly one week after his first such feat is just amazing.  Let's hope we can see it again this coming Saturday against Houston, which, if you like the symmetry of the thing, would be the first home game in the ALCS, should the Guardians qualify today or tomorrow.

OK, that's it for now.   Time to go get mentally prepared for today's game.  I hope it is a great one, a Guardian's victory and that tomorrow we can all celebrate, at some point, us qualifying for the ALCS this year.

Go Guardians!

Sunday thoughts

 Reading through various blogs, twitter feeds, blogs and internet news articles this morning two things strike me:

(1) arrogance, to the point of disdain for your opponent, in the face of reality that that opponent can, indeed, compete with you, is so outside the scope of what sports is about that it SHOULD require one to question why they are even watching sport.  Yes, it is OK to root hard for your team, including shouting expletives at your TV/computer screen (don't know how I know that, I just do 😉).  But to try to demean or mock your opponent because you feel that you have to flaunt your supposed superiority and remind others of that supposed superiority is just not what sports is about.  People who do that, especially people in the public eye or positions of authority, should be ashamed of themselves and SHOULD...JUST...STOP.

(2) Posting pictures/videos/etc. of the disappointment that fans of other teams have when their team is beaten by another team, especially in dramatic fashion, is almost the textbook definition of trolling and doesn't become the person/people who are doing it.  As I was watching those clips I was thinking 'this is exactly how I might have reacted coming into a series as an overwhelming (at least in my mind) favorite.  Capturing that and even, to the eyes of others, reveling in that disappointment is just as bad as the superiority stuff I talked about in (1) above.

Yesterday I wrote Guardians fans should all be pulling in the same direction, rooting for their team and willing them, if that is truly possible, to continue winning.  This shows the team you are behind them and helps pick them up when they are tired and downtrodden.  In those caases, for those players, energy comes to those places at a time they didn't know they had any energy left.

I want us, as Guardians fans, to root for our team in the purest, most positive way.  I don't want us to be dragged down and reduced to taunting and trolling just because we know that the media, fans of SOME other teams and portions of the general public might think we don't have a chance and repeeatedly say that in very unflattering, insulting ways.  Now, I know that sounds all rainbows and unicorns but if can do that to the best of our abilities (trust me, I have been pulled into the darkness myself on occasion) in the end we will be proud of ourselves and make the success that we have even that much sweeter.

So, as we go into tonight's game I hope we all root for and revel in the successes the Guardians have had this year.   If we have no other blessings in our lives we have, this year, truly been blessed, as Guardians fans, to have a team like this play for our city.

I will end by saying that, among other things, I am thankful I have the ability to turn down the sound on the TV and listen to Tom Hamilton and co.  His calls of important moments raise my spirits up.  I have listened, over the past 65 years, to broadcasters in a lot of cities and his energy, his enthusiasm for his team and his overall mastery of his craft are, to me, HOF-worthy.   The only negative thing I will say in this post is that I am, even more this morning, thoroughly disgusted with the national TV broadcast team doing this series.  Their comments after the game last night about how the Yankees are better than the Guardians with the Guardians only winning because they are hot right now, how the Yankees are only losing because of the bad luck they have had with injuries and how Cole was paid the big bucks to make this team win and needs to do so in game 4 are EXACTLY what I would expect to hear from a hometown broadcast of the game.  That is, they are 'homer' comments.   To hear those from broadcasters of a national media outlet who, in theory, should be neutral, is absolutely and positively disgusting to me and that network and those broadcasters should be ashamed of themselves and should apologize, on the air tonight, for the tone in which they are broadcasting and how demeaning they are, even by their silence, of the Cleveland Guardians.  Note that I heard very little during the broadcast about how the Dodgers suck, how the Braves suck, how the Mets suck because they lost.   Just the Yankees.  People, be better than that and at least be somewhat neutral...and apologize that you haven't been up to this point,

"He's done it AGAIN!"

 Not much more to be said than that.

Go Guardians!

It's Saturday and time for some baseball!

 Lots of moving parts to this game:

• Philadelphia defeats Atlanta to take the series.  Energy seems in place for the underdogs!
• We have Gariel Arias at first base tonight.  Naylor DHs and Miller and Brennan sit.  You know the old joke about mixed emotions being watching your mother-in-law drive off a cliff in your brand new Cadillac?
• McKenzie on the mound. I think we need to score 5 to be sure as the best HR team in the majors may run into one or two against a pitcher who gives up HRs.
• Baseball in Cleveland in October is a dicey proposition, but it looks like we will have good weather tonight.

I love that we are in the playoffs and we have been playing well.   I have questions about why Arias is on the roster, why Nolan Jones is not playing 1B SOMEWHERE right now and why we didn't pull the plug on Owen Miller in the playoffs sooner and how these decisions have made it so Will Brennan is not in the lineup but those questions are for another day.  Every team has guys they would rather not be starting at this point in the playoffs including the Yankees so we will just have to go with it and hope Arias does well defensively and runs into one....or two, in contradiction to his year so far.   

Go Guardians! (and a couple of well-placed, well-timed midges attracted by midge pheromones we spray on the balls the Yankees pitch with).

Pulling in the same direction

 Those of you who read this blog probably know two things about me:

(1) I am a lifelong Cleveland fan

(2) I love prospects.

But there is one thing that people are likely to find out about me going forward.

If you don't attend the games I don't think you should voice your opinion.  And I am not talking about the person who attends 5 games a season and watches games on TV and feel that gives them a right to criticize the team.  

So, people, including media, who want to nitpick ANYTHING about this season.  Sit down, take a deep breath and, without playing armchair manager, cheer for your team.

If I have to read one more time how Francona should have removed Quantrill before the 6th inning I will barf.  

This is the same manager who pitched his starting pitchers EXACTLY the right amount in the playoffs up to that point.  It is the same manager who pitched Hentges 3 innings when I was screaming for him not to go back out for that 3rd inning with Plesac and McCarty available.

In fact, NO ONE criticized Francona about those moves because they worked.  Fair weather fans and trolls will nitpick when the team loses but are silent when the team wins.

So, as we go into tomorrow and for the rest of this series and, hopefully, beyond this series into the next one and then the next one, could every Cleveland fan just pull in the same direction? Root for you team, don't criticize your team.  Because, frankly, there are very few, if any of us, who should criticize ANYTHING about this season.  It has, so far, way exceeded expectations.   

So, even if we can't pull together let's pull in the same direction for the rest of this season and simply root on OUR Guardians.  There will be plenty of time for ridiculous comments about how the team and management should have done this or should have not done that.  And those comments, as I have said, should actually only be brought forward by people who have been at many games during the year and watched most of the rest on TV or listened to them on the radio.  I think there are so few people who fall into this category that their complaints should be drowned out by the noise of the rest of us applauding their team for a season well-done.  Until the point where the season ends, let's all root our hardest to help make sure it doesn't end.

Of Meda, Fans and Expectations

 Last week the Cardinals lost two straight to the Phillies at home.  Goldschmidt, a candidate for MVP and Gold Glove honors went 0'fer in these two games. Arenado, he of another Gold Glove season and 30 HR and 100 RBI, was 1-7.   Fire these two slackers.  They are paid to perform, now dance!  Ollie Marmol blew a 2 run lead in the first game allowing his closer and that guy's replacement to give up 6 runs.  First the bum, he should have seen it was going south and done gotten the closer out and put in a better reliever.

Last week the Mets lost at home to the Padres.  Francisco Lindor hit .200, with 1 HR and 1 RBI.   He clearly is not worth the 30+ million they are paying him as he couldn't even help his team out of the first round of the playoffs.  And fire the manager as he couldn't even keep his team out of this series and get them a first round bye.  I mean, one game.  He couldn't have helped his team wn one more game?  Plus, why did he let Scherzer pitch the 3rd time through the order when it was so obvious that he didn't have it that day, havng given up 3 runs in the first 4 innings?  Plus, knowing Bassitt was not a quality playoff pitcher, why did he go to him in game 3 and why did he leave him in so long.  I mean, hell, he ended up using 6 relievers anyway.  Why didn't he use a bullpen game?

I am a Guardians' fan.  Why am I bringing this stuff up?  Because of what I am hearing and reading this morning.  Francona needs to manage better.   Dolan is a cheapskate.   Our players are not good enough or they are chokers. 

Here's a news flash: going out and obtaining high-priced players doesn't guarantee you anything. 

I am going to say this once and be done with this thought:

GOING OUT AND GETTING HIGHLY-PAID PLAYERS HELPS TEAMS OVERCOME NOT PLAYING THE GAME THE RIGHT WAY.

As the Highlander says 'There can be only one".  Every other team except the one that wins the WS will have ownership that did not do enough to bring in good players.  Every other team will have a manager who didn't make the right moves.  Every other team will have players who didn't perform well enough when the spotlight was brightest.

I get the desperation.  You never know when you are getting back to the playoffs.  This franchise hasn't won a WS since 1948.  I get it all.  But just like when the 1994 Cleveland Indians became the 1995 Cleveland Indians by bringing in Dennis Martinez and Orel Hersheiser, I think the 2023 Cleveland Guardians will have added some key players who will make a difference.  

But that ain't happening right now so enjoy the ride and let's root for our team to win playing its brand of baseball.  Frankly, I really, truly, believe that if we play our brand of baseball it will take a Herculean effort for the Yankees to win.  Translated, I truly believe that we can win this series just playing baseball like we have for the last month.

And, for those of you who don't attend games and still want to bitch, get your butts out to games and support your team.  Then you can have a negative opinion if you choose.

One fnal set of thoughts:

• Last night was only one game
• We had our #3 starter going against New York's #1 starter IN NEW YORK!!!
• Ramirez and Kwan hit the ball well and Gimenez got a hit

These are things to build on.  

Go Guardians!

Into the belly of the beast

 We will now be playing the worst ranked division champion still in the postseason.  That is the good news.  The bad news is that it is the Yankees and they won 99 games this year and we will be facing one of the best pitchers in baseball at least twice, unless we happen to sweep the Yankees.

Plus, as my daughter says, we have 'beef' with the Yankees fans.  

It will make for an interesting series.

Let's talk about the roster that we put together for this series:

• We will, once again have 12 pitchers and 14 positions players.   This is an interesting choice given that the extra inning rules changed for the playoffs meaning that it is highly likely games going to extra innings would last longer.  Someone probably has stats on this but my guess is that this could be significant, like 2+ innings longer, something significant in the playoffs where every pitch matters.  Plus, in making the selections we now have only one lefty in the bullpen. While McCarty is not an overpowering pitcher he does have the potential to go all Ryan Merritt on the Yankees as sort of an x-factor.
• We have decided to go with three catchers.  Normally that would not be an issue, especially when you consider that our third catcher is such a good hitter with great pitch recognition.   That is, he could be used as a DH or pinch hitter.  But there seem to be issues with the logic:
• Bo Naylor, our 3rd catcher, has 8 major league ABs and has struck out 5 times with no hits.  Yes, he had a very good season this year but it is coming off a season last year where he was terrible.  Yes, he was very young for AA last year and appeared overmatched just due to lack of experience which he corrected this year as he became more age appropriate for AA and then AAA.  That's the issue, really.  Last year he was overmatched at AA and it stands to reason that he might be overmatched this year in the majors due to his young age.
• The injury rules would allow us to add him to the roster if one of our catchers got hurt badly enough they couldn't finish the season.  Even a concussion would probably preclude a guy from returning this season.
• The odds that we have to pinch run for our catcher are low as our catchers are both subpar hitters and not very likely to get on base, especially in a playoff game where the pitching is tougher than the regular season
• Naylor is inexperienced with our pitchers.
• Out pinchhitting options, if Brennan starts as the DH, are limited.and, at this point, don't look a whole lot better than our backup catcher, Maile.

So, basically, we have Naylor on the roster just in case we pinch hit for our starting catcher and then our backup catcher gets hurt or we want ot pinch hit for him, although our pinch hitting options are limited.  Sure, we could have Bo Naylor pinch hit for one of the catchers but that doesn't make sense.

I am still amazed we are doing this.

• Rhetorical question: How many of you remember the last out of the 2016 World Series made by Michael Martinez?  I remember sitting there thinking that there had to be someone better that Cleveland could have placed on the roster in case we needed a hit in a particular, isolated situations.  This year we decided to keep Gavriel Arias and Will Benson on the roster for the last series and this series.  Neither of them are legitimate hitters at this point.  Frankly, I would rather have Richie Palacios and Tyler Freeman.  Both, in my opinion, give you better offense with passable defense (if Kwan plays CF and Palscios in LF).  Keeping Benson in case one of your FOUR outfielders gets hurt makes no sense to me.  You don't need his defense and he doesn't provide any offense, with 1 XBH and 3 BB in 55 ABs so far (with 19 Ks).  Keeping the currently defensively-challenged Arias makes no sense in the playoffs.  Not that Freeman was much better but I like his offense better than Arias right now.  I think Arias's home run and current ML walk rate are aberrations to his expected performance this series.  Freeman's offensive performance so far in the majors is very projectable to this series.  So, you have the choice to throw Arias out there and hope for a miracle IF he has to come off the bench and pinch hit in a tight game or desparate situation or put Freeman in and hope that he extends the game and keeps the line moving.  In that case the odds favor Freeman.  Heck, if you wanted the possibility of something miraculous happening, bring in Nolan Jones, George Valera, Brayan Rocchio or even Jhonkensy Noel!  Much better chance of miracle production out of those guys when compared to Benson or Arias.

So, as we head into this series I think we have hamstrung ourselves and created potential late game or extra innings disadvantages that might be, in the end, the edge the Yankees need to win this series.

Going into any series without all the weapons you could have makes no sense to me.

Onward to NY. What our roster should look like.

 OK, through to the next round.  

Let's look at who the Guardians might roster for this round.  

First, let's look at the Yankees pitching.  It appears they have 1 starter and 2 relievers who are left-handed.  Most of the rest of the roster is likely to be right-handed now that Britton is out and Chapman is not likely to be rostered.  

Plus, in this round, given our experience in extra innings in the wildcard round, I think we have to go with at least 13 pitchers, although, if it is legal, 14 is not out of the question. 

So, looking at our roster, here is who I think we should go with:

HITTERS

C - Hedges

1B - Naylor

2B - Gimenez

SS - Rosario

3B - Ramirez

LF - Kwan

CF - Straw

RF - Gonzalez

DH - Brennan

Utility: Arias (1B/2B/SS/3B, OF), Palacios (LF), Maile (C), Frean (INF)

NOTE: With 13 pitchers I don't think we can carry 3 catchers.  The only way we could do that is if our extra catcher could DH and so pop in to catch from his DH role in an emergency situation.  Naylor is 0-8 with 5 Ks. I don't think he is an option.  As far as Benson, looking how he has been used and his production there is not reason he is on the playoff roster.   I will post later today about some small mistakes the Guardians have made in the preparation of their minor leaguers for the post-season but, for right now, I think Palacios is a better choice for this roster than Benson who is not effective at the plate right now. and, with Brdennan, is not needed as an extra outfielder   I also think that we gamble that Arias can play 1B in an emergency.  I think Miller has proven unreliable and so we don't carry him because I think Freeman would add more value.   I think we go with an iron 9 as I like Naylor's chances to play every game at 1B and his chances against a lefty like Cortes more than I like Miller's chances against anyone at this point.  Maybe we even gamble that Arias could come in and get a hit or two against Cortes as other teams might not have a book on him yet.

PITCHERS

SP - Quantrill, Bieber, McKenzie, Civale (if needed for game 5)

NOTE: Given the schedule, Quantrill would start on 7 days rest on Tuesday,  Bieber would on 6 days rest on Thursday, McKenzie on 7 days rest on Saturday and Quantrill would come back on 5 days rest on Sunday.  The issue is Monday.  None of our starters would be able to come back on Monday on normal rest meaning we would have to do a bullpen game with maybe some mixture of Civale, Plesac and McCarty. I see some reason to start Civale on Tuesday but I think the way it makes the dominos fall in the rest of the series AND leading into the next series is not optimal. The thing is, you try to play to end it in 4 and if it comes to game 5 you roll with it.  

Closer - Clase

Bullpen - Stephan, Karinchak, Hentges, De Los Santos, Morgan, Morris, Plesac, McCarty

NOTE: I think it makes sense to sit Sandlin this coming series.  If you do that he can play in the next series.  I think if you put him on the roster for this series you can only remove him due to injury and he wouldn't be able to play in the next series.  For me this gives us two lefties in the bullpen and I could see us using McCarty in a long extra inning game or even against some left bats starting in bases empty situations.  I like Morris here because I think his future is in the bullpen in the short term, he has shown he can work in the short tints multiple times in his career and not many teams have a book on him yet.  

So, there are my thoughts.  More later!

Thoughts for a Saturday Night

 Wow, that was exhausting and exhilarating at the same time.  Random thoughts:

1. I can't believe Francona sent Hentges out for that 3rd inning. It almost backfired but, in the end, it worked out. 

2. Ramirez to Naylor. I hope that play never gets lost in all the talk about this season, this series and this game.  It is the stuff legends are made of.

3. Oscar Gonzalez - A lot will be written about the how the Guardians almost lost him, first as a minor league free agent then by not adding him to the 40-man ahead of the Rule 5 draft that never happened.  This kid has a long way to go and may flame out like so many before him but, for this moment, in this year and all the dreaming on his improvement going forward, I hope we have found our right fielder for the next 5 years, at least.

4. Can't say enough about Francona and the front office.  Looking back over the season, they played as if they were trying to get ready for the post-season.  I can't stress strongly enough that, in my opinion, this is how you have to manage your team no matter what team you are given.  By that I mean that you have to manage your team like you KNOW you are going to win the championship and you just want to keep your guys healthy and get them mentally and physically prepared to reach that goal AND be effective in the playoffs, while winning enough regular season games to get there.  People can dispute my opinion on this but, from where I sit, that is exactly what Tito did.  He never panicked and, to his credit, did not overuse his guys.  

In order for this strategy to work you need to avoid injuries (which is partly what you do by using this strategy) and you need to get performances from EVERYONE on the roster, especially in the last half of the season.  Francona and his staff got that out of his players.   We had one of the lowest rates of IL time in the majors this year and I don't think that is an accident.  I think Francona gets some of the credit for that.  What is amazing to me is that this team could play as hard as they did every day and STILL avoid a lot of injuries.

5. What may be lost in this is that this team won this wild card series while not doing much on offense.   By that I mean that the Guardians said, once again, 'this is the hand we have been dealt and we are going to play this hand until the end'.  When we had the bases loaded and no outs and Ramirez and Naylor couldn't get it done, some teams might have folded.  Not these guys.  You cannot put a dollar value on that.  They just kept their heads down and kept playing.

6. For those skeptics out there, of course there is a little luck.  Look at the Cardinals who were, essentially, in the same spot as the Guardians going into the playoffs.  One bad inning in the first game doomed their playoff run.  We didn't have that inning or the bad luck they had with their closer in that inning.  But the point is that we had to battle for 15 innings and never gave up.

7. To be a little negatve here.  I am listening to the game at mlb.com.   Every inning they lag behind on the broadcast.  One time Rosario was in the 5th pitch of an at bat by Gameday and the radio broadcast was still on commercial.  Then, when Gonzalez hits the HR, they come out of the commercial during the celebration.  First time all game where they didn't start the inning coming out of the break.  Unbelievable MLB.  Now, maybe it was just my device that had an internet glitch but, if so, it was the first and only time in these two games that the inning did not start from the beginning on the radio broadcast.

8. I will talk more about what is coming next tomorrow and Monday but I can almost hear the disappointment in our radio and tv announcers' voices when Miller comes up and fails to deliver an important hit or screws up a simple play in the field.  I was screaming when they didn't put Benson in to pinch hit instead of Miller today. I can almost see the disappointment in the faces of the players when Arias makes a bad play in the field.   The veterans KNOW there is no margin for error here and as much as they want to be good teammates and friends, you don't have room for that type of bad or ineffective play on the field during the playoffs.  There will be changes to the roster for the next round but, outside of the pitching roster changes I think will happen, I see us going with an iron-nine the rest of the way, despite who is pitching, with the bench players staying on the bench except in the case of emergencies.

9. Anyone who thinks that the ownership groups owes us ANYTHING at this point should rethink that position.  I, personnally, want to thank the ownership group for sticking with this city even when people weren't coming to games.  I mean, since 2013 we have had one losing season and like 6 playoff appearances and yet, after opening day and discounting when the Yankees come in town, PEOPLE JUST DON'T ATTEND GUARDIANS GAMES.  It is embarrassing to me as a lifelong fan to see the apathy that has existed in Cleveland during the Francona era.  When I hear people railing against the name change I want to stand up and say that they don't deserve a voice in the matter if they are not attending 40 games a year.  People, you are in a golden era of Cleveland baseball.  Get off your rear ends and go see this team play.  Every game.  Every year.  

10. Finally, I want to thank the players and all those who support them for giving us one of the most enjoyable seasons in my over 60 years as a fan of this franchise.  It has been a great ride and the ride continues this year.  But, beyond that, looking at the young talent on this team and the young talent on the cusp of being on this team next year and in 2024, for the first tme in my life I see the possibility that what we are seeing this year could become a common scene for the next two years with this team being this good or even much better, top to bottom in the roster, for the next 5 years or more.  

Wow, that was history!

 Bieber was outstanding.  Clase was outstanding.  Ramirez dd it again and was the team leader he had been all year.  The players made all the routine plays and avoided giving Tampa Bay extra outs and avoided giving them infield hits.

There's not much else to say about this great first game that broke the Guardians' post-season losing streak.  

Looking forward to game 2 and seeing what Will Brennan can do and whether Kwan can rebound and get the offense going and seeing McKenzie pitch in the post-season.

Playoff Keys

 There aren't any new ones.

There are a whole bunch of them.

As I sat down to do this post those are the two thoughts that rattled through my head.  So many 'experts' are talking about the keys to this series that it struck me that none of us know. The keys to any post-season series, in my opinion are:

(1) Your stars/high level players performing to or above their levels.  Likely that will require these guys to elevate their games.   By this I mean that Bieber will have to pitch near-flawless baseball and avoid that one inning where he and Hedges brain fart and he gives up 3-4 runs.  In addition, Jose Ramirez will have to elevate his game and become the guy in April and in the last game of the season who just dominates at the plate.  Guys like Rosario, Kwan, Gimenez, Gonzalez and the bullpen will have to perform at the same high level they have during the season.

(2) You need some unexpected heroes to step up and give you great performances.  Remember Ryan Merritt in 2016?  Maybe that is Kirk McCarty in another extra inning game, holding the fort until the Guardians find a way to score the winning run.  Maybe it is Oscar Gonzalez going all Randy Arozarena on us and unleashing the power we saw in the minors.  The symmetry and poetry of that in a series against Arozarena and his team would be stunning.  Maybe it is Myles Straw continuing on and exceeding his September hitting and looking more like last year and this year in April. Maybe even hitting a HR!  Maybe it is Will Brennan being up in crucial situations and delivering almost every time and every time that TRULY matters.  

I am not sure what it will take for them to win in the playoffs but the Guardians deserve our support for their great season this year.   Let's hope that everything aligns and they can have a deep run in the playoffs this year.  And that the guys who we need to exceed expectations continue to do so, playing at their highest level yet and they do it in a way that keeps them safe and healthy for this and future seasons.

Go Guardians!

3 Moves That Could Hurt The Guardians' Momentum Heading Into The Playoffs

 C-O-U-L-D

Not W-I-L-L

By all accounts this clubhouse is tight and focused and all about the team.  Good.  Let's hope it stays that way.  The Guardians obviously cherish those kinds of players...if they can, indeed, P-L-A-Y.

But camaraderie is fickle thing.  You have to believe in the guy next to you.  You have to believe in the guy in front of you for you to be able to handle a smaller role.  And you have to believe in the guys running the show (i.e., the manager, the coaches and the front office).

I see some things over the past couple of weeks that make me wonder if the Guardians are starting to do things to get a new spark.  Things that M-I-G-H-T kill the spark they already have.

Let's talk about these and what effect they may have.  BTW, no player would ever say they would have a negative effect but even questioning a move results, I think, in a negative effect.

So here goes:

1. Bringing up Gabriel Arias and sending down Tyler Freeman - Look, Freeman didn't have the greatest debut.  I mean, compare the start to his ML career to the starts that Brennan and Kwan have had.  Heck, compare it to the start that Nolan Jones had!  I love Tyler Freeman's game.  I think he will be a quality major league starter or, at least, a supersub who can contribute at multiple positions and provide offense.  But his start offensively was so-so and he made some rookie mistakes on defense.   In a nutshell, he was not indispensable to this team in the upcoming playoffs.   That being said, Arias has the stigma that when he went to the minors he pouted.  Plus his numbers don't look that good.  Plus he has limited experience in the OF and at 1B, two positions that Francona pointed out were why he was called up and Freeman was sent down.   If it had been Brayan Rocchio I get it.  Throw something against the wall and hope it sticks with your utility infielder.  But Arias?  With the attitude he displayed when he was sent down the last time?  You have to trust the people in front of you who are better than you and you have to want to put the team first to excel as a rookie backup, especially in the playoffs.  I just don't know if it sends a good message that a guy who pouted and didn't put up numbers is the guy you pick for your post-season roster over other guys with talent who busted it all season and didn't complain (to the best of my knowledge).  Add that to the fact that Arias has FOUR errors so far in limited action (seems like he is getting one a game now!) and botched another play today that was scored as a hit, I just don't see the positives outweighing the negatives that would cause a team to want to put him on THIS post-season roster.

2. DFAing Bryan Shaw and adding Bo Naylor - Again, everyone with eyes knows how valuable Shaw was this season in Francona's attempt to compete while not burning out his pitching staff.  Lots of decisions that appeared that he was OK with throwing a game or two away.   Well, almost every time he did that there was Shaw.  Picking up the ball.  Giving a professional effort.  Saving the pitching staff.  But they decided to DFA him and WOW, hasn't it blown up in their faces so far!!!!  Naylor 0-6 with 5 Ks.  I mean, the worst first two games by any Guardians rookie this year...by far.   And against a Royals team that is not that strong and a starting pitcher that the rest of the team was hitting around pretty good.   I didn't see the need for Naylor before and I still don't.  And to risk the negativity in the clubhouse that might be caused by unceremoniously dispatching a warrior like Shaw?  I don't see it and I don't get it.  Hopefully it becomes more apparent to all of us in the next 4 games and, if the situation presents itself, in the playoffs, why Bo Naylor had to be added to the roster because, right now, when it counts, it doesn't look like Bo knows baseball enough to help THIS Guardians team THIS year in the playoffs.

3. Bringing back Zach Plesac - Hey, in a perfect world Zach Plesac realizes what an immature punk he has been and the ephiphany comes to him from his last injury and he goes to Tito and says "man, whatever you need in the playoffs I am there for you, skip." And then proceeds to do it as professionally but technically much better than Shaw was able to do it.  That makes sense.  Hey, it is the move (Plesac over Shaw on the post-season roster) I would have made so how can I question it?  But it isn't my questioning it that might cause clubhouse strife.  I can imagine a scenario where the Guardians veterans think Plesac has repeatedly let them down with his immature behavior not only this year, but last year...and the year before.  When they have finally gotten their team mojo together they might wonder how briinging back Plesac this season helps them win in the playoffs.   I mean, Francona is a genius, to be sure.   But Andrew Miller was the consummate professional in 2016 which made Francona's using of him in an extraordinary fashion work.   It would be nice to think Plesac would embrace a role like that and run with it.  But, based on past experience, it might not be in his DNA to be that selfless...or that professional.   So, when the dust settles and the roster is set for the playoffs, I hope Plesac accepts and excels in whatever role Francona gives him.  Because, once the playoffs start it is not about "me", it is all about "we".  

Let's hope all of our role players that make the ML playoff roster(s) understand that.  They only have to look back to Ryan Merritt and Andrew Miller and guys like that.  They only have to look at Rajai Davis and guys like him who rose to the moment when it presented themselves.  Anything less than that will not help us make a deep playoff run this year.  Something this team IS capable of if everyone is pulling in the same direction and performing their assigned tasks to their optimum.

Bryan Shaw - I just don't get it

 First, Bryan, thanks for all of your efforts over the years.   Some fans didn't appreciate you but you gave lots of great moments to the fans of Cleveland's baseball team.   Thank you again.

Now, to today.  I don't know what others are saying but I don't get this.  There was no way that Shaw was going to be on the Guardians next year except for some catastrophic injury to one of their relief pitchers.  I get that.  Still, I can't imagine why we would get DFA him right now.

Bo Naylor can't play in the post-season unless Will Brennan does not.  Naylor brings nothing to the table that Brennan doesn't, if I can use a double negative.  Both hit left-handed.  Naylor doesn't really know this pitching staff.  

I just don't get it.  What the Guardians did has a chance to disrupt the clubhouse at a critical time.  Keeping him for 5 more days and then just not rostering him for the post-season and keeping him around for moral support would have likely worked.  

So, once again, I don't get it.  

I love that the Guardians are looking internally for any edge they can get in the playoffs but Naylor is not that edge.  Brennan is a better fit both in terms of need and in terms of fit.  

If the Guardians think that Naylor can help them in the post-season I think they are mistaken.

And losing Bryan Shaw at this time has a chance to hurt the Guardians psyche.

No positives for the post-season and potential negatives.   The very definition of a nonsensical move.

I don't get it.