Thursday Thoughts: Waiver Claims and DFAs; PPI, ROY and Tanner Bibee; Bell and His Player Option; September 1st Callups;

WAIVER CLAIMS AND DFAs TODAY

I was begging for the Guardians to pounce on LAA's sell-off and they did, somewhat, so I have to like the waiver claims today.  These were low-cost additions who stand a chance to help us down the stretch.   Adding Gioloto (replacing Syndergaard), Lopez and Moore (over Herrin) are good additions.  They should help our pitching staff and save our young arms.  Will that be enough to propel us to the playoffs?  I don't know if they will but it certainly points us in the right direction.  However, we did not address the offense at all and any team that has Kole Calhoun batting 3rd and Ramon Laureano hitting 4th is in trouble, offensively.  Fortunately Calhoun came to us on fire and has offered some protection for Ramirez.  When Naylor comes back it should help, too.  I still would have rather have Renfro or Grichuk, although we might still have a chance for Grichuk now that he has cleared waivers if he is released.

We needed two roster spots right now and I would have DFA'd Gallagher and Kelly and kept Battenfield and Haase.  Battenfield at least was ML rotation depth.  Kelly wasn't even bullpen depth at CBus, truth be told.  Regarding Hasse vs Gallagher, who would you rather have to PH or to bat in late innings or extra innings?  So, I don't know why we did what we did as these weren't post-season decisions, IMO.  I guess if Beiber comes back Gallagher is his personal catcher this season so there is that.  I do know if Battenfield and Haase go unclaimed they could stay with Cleveland and would be eligible for the post-season if added back to the 40 man. I think Haase can choose to be a FA after the season, having been DFA'd twice but Battenfield would still be in our system this winter if he goes unclaimed.

SEPTEMBER 1st CALLUPS: 28-MAN ROSTER PREDICTIONS FOR TOMORROW

Starting Pitchers (5)

Allen

Bibee

Giolito

Williams

Quantrill

NOTE: If Williams goes on the IL 

, Curry slides back into the rotation and Karinchak stays up in the ML bullpen, although Morris is more of a fit as a long man.

Bullpen (9)

Curry

Clase

De Los Santos

Hentges (L)

Lopez

Moore (L)

Morgan

Sandlin

Stephan

Sent To Columbus

Morris

Gaddis

Karinchak

NOTE: I absolutely hate this for Karinchak and I think it sends him the wrong message but, procedurally, it makes the most sense, seeing he has already used up his option this year and sending anyone else down burns a minor league option for them for a whole season for only one month.  Karinchak, Gaddis and Morris are still eligible for post-season.

Catcher (3)

Fry

Gallagher

Naylor

NOTE: I would have kept Haase and dumped Gallagher.  The latter has no use other than being someone's (Beiber?) caddy.   Can't go with Fry and Naylor as your only catchers, unfortunately, although I would like to.  Plus, even if we DFA Gallagher, we can't add another pitcher.  It would have to be a position player like Rocchio or, less likely, Jonathon Rodriguez which would cause us to have to send down Gonzalez or DFA Laureano.

Infielders (5)

Naylor

Gimenez

Arias

Ramirez

Freeman

NOTE: Four starters and a backup.  All you need here.

Outfielders (6)

Kwan

Straw

Calhoun

Brennan

Laureano

Gonzalez

NOTE: We don't need all these outfielders but we have them.  You could send Gonzalez down and bring up Rocchio again but I just don't see it happening.  Again, Gonzalez is the only one of this group to have burned a minor league option this year and so it wouldn't impact his long term future in Cleveland if we sent him down.  If fwe would have gotten Renfroe or if we sign Grichuk, Gonzalez is the logical one to go down.

PROSPECT PROMOTION INCENTIVE< ROY AND TANNER BIBEE

Looking at Tanner Bibee's record going into his start last night it occured to me that his production might put him in ROY comversations.  That being said, I remembered that the new CBA has provisions that incentivized teams that brought their rookies up early.  Essentially, the way the original rule read on what constituted a full season, if a team had a player up for 172 days (187 is the number of days in the regular season) that player was considered to have played a full season which moved them one year closer to free agency and arbitration than if a team (wink, wink) brought the player up at the beginning of May (or later, to avoid super 2 considerations that would give the player one more year of arbitration and one less year for the team to pay him a cheap salary.  cough! Bo Naylor. cough!).

So, in the new CBA, they created a Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI).  If a player is active for more than 171 days during the regular season AND wins the ROY in his league the team will get an extra draft choice the next year.  If he finishes 2nd or 3rd in ROY voting or in the top 3 of MVP or Cy Young voting than the same thing applies.  Besides having been on the active roster for 172 or more days (this year, April 15th or earlier) the player would also have to have been listed in the pre-season top 100 prospects in the game by two of the three (BA, ESPN, MLB Pipeline) rating services.   

While Gavin Williams and Logan Allen have been solid, it is Tanner Bibee that has stood out, at leaset record-wise.

Unfortunately, although Bibee made the cut in all 3 rating services top 100s, he was brought up to the active roster on April 26th, meaning he does not qualify for the PPI.

There is one more point here, though.  The rule states that if a player wins the ROY voting he is guaranteed to get one full year of service time, no matter when he was brought up.  So if Bibee DOES win ROY honors he will get a full year of service time and the Guardians will get nothing except a headache knowing if they had brought him up two weeks earlier they would have gotten an extra draft pick.  

I will continue to roof for Bibee to have a great rookie season and if he wins ROY I will be happy for him and the Guardians' organization that developed him.  But if he just falls short, I won't be as disappointed as I would have been in previous years.

BELL AND HIS PLAYER OPTION

Disgruntled fans have been talking about how Josh Bell started to really hit after he was traded to Miami.  What is lost in that angst are the details of that trade and the impact on the organization going forward.

To make this deal happen, Cleveland took on Jean Segura and the rest of his contract in 2023 plus his contract in 2024 plus his buyout in 2025.   Miami took on the remainder of Bell's contract in 2023 and his salary in 2024 IF Bell exercised his player option for 2024.  When he was hitting in the low .230s with marginal power this seemed like a lock as no way was he going to do better than $16.5 million in 2024 with those stats.  So, the Guardians stood to save $8.36 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors.  

However, in Miami Bell has hit for an OPS of .881 putting him 36% above average for a major league hitter.  

If Bell continues to hit well for the rest of the season it is within the realm of possibility that he might gamble that he would be able to make more than $16.5 million next year in free agency.

The reason for mentioning this is that I did not see any stipulation for this deal for this eventuality.  If the Guardians did not write something into the deal language that protected them from this eventuality, e.g., that the Marlins would pick up half of Segura's salary in 2024 and half of his buyout in 2025, then the Guardians are stupidly short-sighted.  They may end up, instead of saving $8+ million, paying $8+ million for the right to have enigmatic prospect Khalil Watson while the Marlins get to have Bell's great production for the last part of the season AND save $8 million while also exorcising the pain in the butt Watson from their system.

Someone needs to ask Antonetti what happens in this deal if Bell decides to not pick up his player option.  Are the Guardians just screwed or what?  If he says yes, the next question should be: What in the f*** were you thinking?

Wednesday Night Thoughts: "Doctor, The Patient Still Has A Pulse". Waiver Claims...who knew? 2023 Draftees on Full Display.

 The Patient Still Has A Pulse

Good, come-back-from-the-dead win today for the Guardians.  Kept in there until the end with the save-blowing WP in the 9th by Duran (brings to mnd the phrase 'Speed Kills').  

The road doesn't get any easier the rest of the way but at least, at this point, the road doesn't have a "Dead End" sign at the end of it.  Which brings us to the next point:

Waiver Claims...Who Knew?

Teams are putting veterans on waivers in droves right now, led by the Angels.  All you have to do is have a bad record, have a need and be willing to spend a little cash.

Waiver claims used to be getting Ramon Laureno or Kole Calhoun with the thought that they might provide minor league insurance.

But this year it has taken a whole new turn.   I was very much against picking up Laureano because he was a 4th outfielder/AAAA player who was going to cost us as much as Civale would have the rest of the way.  There was no need to pick up a veteran like that.  In fact, except for the exceptional performance, there was no need to pick up Calhoun but that went well and it didn't cost NEARLY as much as Laureano.

But teams are putting frontline starters, top relievers and even some run-producing outfielders on waivers.

And all you have to do is spend a little money to get them.

The waiver process is perfect for the Guardians.  You put in a claim for a player and after a certain time, the team with the worst record gets that claim.  There is no bidding, no player choice.  If they want their salary they go to the team that claims them.

So, let's think.  Only teams with hopes of making the playoffs will put in a claim for an expensive player.  And the worst team still with a chance of making the playoffs is.....wait for it...the Cleveland Guardians.

So here we are.   All we have to do is have Dolan put up with some money and our team can be instantly better.  So if Antonetti tells us 'No, we're happy with what we have' we know he is an idiot.  If we choose not to dip our toe in this water we know that Dolan is cheap.

C'mon people.  We will win every waiver claim we place and be sure of one thing.  If we are not playing this game, the Twins will be making waiver claims in the next day and any chance we have of competing with them will disappear..  We need to be doing the same thing.  It is stupid simple.  Let's make some claims and bring in Lucas Gioloto,  LHRP Matt Moore, OFer Hunter Renfroe or Randal Grichuk or even Mike Clevinger or Carlos Carrasco on waivers.

And it will really resonate with fans that we are putting our money, albeit limited money, where our mouths are in terms of competing.  Talk about the low cost, short term grab of the brass ring.  This is it people.  Let's go!

2023 Draftees on Full Display Today

Saw the Lynchburg game today.  Pretty comical how bad Kayfus and Mooney looked.  Totally overmatched playing at A ball against guys who were 2 years younger, on average.   Hope this draft turns out well but, damn, if Dolan saw this someone WILL lose their job.

BTW, Jackson Humphries looked MOSTLY really sharp with his stuff.  Fastball was a little light (90-92, touching 94) but the command of the pitch was great as was his curveball.  9 Ks in 4 IP.  Gave up some traffic in the first and a 2 run dinger in the 4th but the talent can't be denied when you consider he is a 19 year old who is actually PERFORMING in low A.  (Hear that Kayfus and Mooney...and our draft team).

Cleveland Guardians Minor League Options - Thoughts On How This Impacts Our Strategy

 Just to revisit this topic as we approach September, let's look at the minor league options each of our players have left:  Under the new CBA each player gets 3 different years (up to 5 times per year) in which they can be optioned to the minor leagues after being placed on the 40-man roster for the first time (the 4th option year in certain situations was eliminated).   If a player is optioned but gets called back to the majors before 20 days after his option, he does not lose a minor league option for that year. Players who are removed from the 40-man roster for the first time, assuming they have not accrued enough service time (ML or minor league or a combination) can be sent to the minors.  If they HAVE accrued enough service time (3 yrs ML service time) they can reject being sent to the minors but forfeit any salary they have coming.  If a player is removed from the 40-man roster a second time in their career they can elect to become a free agent without forfeiting their salary.  With all that in mind here is the state of our players in terms of option years and the ability to become free agents if they are DFA'd.  The asterisked players have not been optioned to the minors this year.  Plesac and Lavastida have been removed from the 40-man roster once so, if added and DFA'd again, can opt to be free agents.  Plesac will be a 6-year minor league free agent if not added to the 40-man roster again this year.

THREE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION YEARS LEFT AS OF TODAY

Steven Kwan*

Josh Naylor*

Will Brennan*

Emmanuel Clase*

Trevor Stephan*

Logan Allen* - Allen's option to Columbus in June doesn't count as he was called back in <20 days

Gavin Williams*

Tanner Bibee*

David Fry*

Jonathon Rodriguez - Not rostered yet.  If not rostered will be subject to Rule 5

Ethan Hankins - Not rostered yet.  If not rostered will be subject to Rule 5.

TWO MINOR LEAUGE OPTION YEARS LEFT AS OF TODAY

Zach Plesac - Not on roster.  If added can be FA if DFA'd again.  6 yr minor league FA if not rostered

Tim Herrin

Cody Morris

Bo Naylor

Juan Brito

Angel Martinez

Nick Sandlin

Joey Cantillo

Peyton Battenfield

Oscar Gonzalez

Andres Gimenez*

Myles Straw*

Shane Beiber*

Cal Quantrill*

Eli Morgan*

Xzavion Curry*

ONE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION YEAR LEFT AS OF TODAY

James Karinchak

Hunter Gaddis

Bryan Lavastida - No on roster.  If added can be FA if DFA'd again. Subject to Rule 5 if not rostered

Tyler Freeman

Brayan Rocchio

Jose Tena

George Valera

Jhonkensy Noel

Gabriel Arias*

Triston McKenzie*

ZERO MINOR LEAGUE OPTION YEARS LEFT

Jose Ramirez

Sam Hentges

Enyel De Los Santos

SUMMARY - The most interesting things to me about this list are:

• Arias had only one minor league option left at the beginning of this year which explains why they didn't send him to the minors this year when he struggled.    Burning his last minor league option would have been a last resort as, if they burned it this year, he had to stay on the roster all next year or be DFA'd.  At least this way, if he has to be sent to the minors next year, they can still keep him on the 40-man roster
• Next spring they will have a number of big-time prospects who will be out of options if they don't make the team out of spring training and are optioned to the minors.  While they will be able to go up and down at will (i.e., up to 5 times) next year they will then, in 2025, have to stay in the majors for good or have to be DFA'd.  
• For guys like Karinchak, next year will tell the story.  Either they stay up with the ML team next year or they will be out of options the next spring.  For guys like Karinchak, they will have plenty of chances by that point, making the spectre of DFAing them in 2025 not seem that bad, if they don't perform.
• Noel and Valera are special cases as neither have even cracked the majors for the first time yet, and are most vulnerable to run out of options before they reach the majors for good (80% of guys are sent back to the minors at least once after making their ML debut).  For these two, and the Guardians, this is really the worst possible situation as both are great prospects but who have, maturing to do yet so, have to make and stay in the majors at some point next year as they will be out of options after 2024.  The alternative is that they can be on the 26-man or 60-day DL all of next year and not burn an option.
• Amazingly, except for guys like Norris, Laureano, Michael Kelly, Gallagher and Calhoun, on our current 40 man roster only Jose Ramirez, Enyel De Los Santos and Sam Hentges are out of options, giving us huge flexibility for the 2024 season but, as indicated above, hamstrings us in a number of cases  in 2025 and beyond.
• Obviously, if we add more prospects to the 40-man this winter, they should all have 3 options left, assuming they didn't come from outside the organization in which case they may have already had one or more of the minor league options used by their previous club.

So, looking at the minor league options we gain a little insight into the moves the Guardians have and have not made this year.  Would still like to see Noel and Valera up to make cameos this year as we have already burned their options.   Bringing up any other guys we INTEND to roster this winter (e.g., Rodriguez) also makes sense if we choose to do that.  Unfortunately, the new expanded roster rules means that we can only bring up one more guy in September, unless we rotate guys who we have already burned an option on this year (e.g., Cantillo, Gaddis, Battenfield, Valera, Noel, Tena, Martinez,Herrin, .

Francona's Replacement

 OK, others are doing it so I thought I would jump in.   Who should be Francona's replacement?  

To answer this question we have to begin with what we need:

• Someone who is good at developing major league players
• Someone with enough common sense not to burn out young pitchers (or pitchers at all)
• Someone who is able to manage a team to the playoffs NOW.
• Someone who is versed in modern technology (e.g., run an effective challenge system)
• Someone who is innovative, findng ways to utilize all his players effectively
• Someone who will be able to retain most of the current staff and not make wholesale coaching changes

There is one obvious answer to who that should be: NOBODY IN THE WORLD WHO IS AVAILABLE

Kevin Cash is the obvious choice but no way would he leave Tampa to manage the Guardians.  Same type of organization and he is successful where he is and they are happy with him.  

I also don't think we should use a retread manager as guys who have been fired for poor performance of their teams have already shown their inability to manage unless they go to the Yankees (e.g., Joe Torre) or another big money team.  Maybe a fired manager who was not fired for performance of his team but for an inability to mesh with that team's FO (see below).

So let's look at the candidates who I thnk might come close to fitting what we need:

INTERNAL

1. Sandy Alomar - He has been around for a long time and would offer some consistency of staffing.  If he gets the job I don't know if he would want Demarlo Hale back as his bench coach.  And I don't know if Hale is the beste choice for a bench coach.  The big thing about Sandy is I am not sure if he fits ANY of the criteria above because we just don't know.  He is the big question mark.  We would either hit a HR with him or it would be a total disaster.   Catchers, I think, have a better chance to be good managers in their first shot.  I mean, look at Mke Matheny.  He had never even coached or managed in the minors and, to a point, he did a GREAT job in St. Louis and I think Alomar would be at least as good as Matheny in managing a ML team but without the type of shenanigans that I think went on during Matheny's time in St. Louis.  One thing for sure, I would rather have Alomar than some old grizzled veteran who has to do it his way and has failed several times before.  

2. DeMarlo Hale - In his cameo when Francona was out in 2021 he failed miserably.  He just doesn't seem to exude the qualities we need as a manager and I think it would be a fool's bet to pick Hale but who knows.  Hale is the 'safe' choice but I don't think he is the right choice.

3. Mike Sarbaugh - Mike is a former minor league manager of the year with the Clippers and is very familiar with all the players on the ML team.  He is the 3rd candidate from the ML team and I don't see us dipping into our minor league managers with 3 top candidates like this.

EXTERNAL

1. Mike Schildt - Schildt showed in St. Louis that he is the right mix of winning now and working with young players.  He was let go by the Cardinals in a weird situation that appeared to revolve around his disdain for analytics as it appeared he wanted to manage by the seat of his pants.  Still, look at what he did coming in on the heels of the bad Matheny ending in St. Louis and look how badly Ollie Marmol has done coming in on the heels of the Schildt firing.  Not embracing analytics would be an issue in Cleveland but he yeould at least be worth an interview.

2. AAA manager - AAA managers come to mind as they are used to managing older players and star prospects.  There might also be less fear at replacing the best manager in Cleveland history.  Whether they can do in the majors what they did at AAA is a dicey thing but at least it is a place to start.  Certainly it would be easier to convince to keep the same or most of the same coaching staff in place, if that is what the FO wants for consistency in the transition from Francona to the new guy.  While it is not obvious that they would immediately have the respect of established major league players or be able to successfully run a major league coaching staff, let alone be able to win at the major league level, it is something worth considering as a way to start fresh with a younger, energetic guy.  So, who would you select?  Here are some thoughts:

• Gil Velazquez - He is 43 years old. Currently serving as Arizona's defensive coordinator - He was the 2022 Baseball America minor league manager of the year while filling in when their AAA manager left to go to a different organization. His roster had both veterans and young players and he did a great job managing them.  He had previously managed in 2016 and had been an infield coordinator in the Arizona system.  As a former infield coordinator he would have a leg up sorting through the Guardians various middle infielder options.
• Travis Barbary - He is 51 years old and is currently the LA Dodgers AAA manager.  He obviously has experience managing top prospects.
• Ramon Vazquez - Boston's bench coach.  He is 47 years old and has experience as a liasion between the team and the club's analytics people.
• Rick Sweet - He is 52 years old and is currently the manager of Milwaukee's AAA team. As a former catcher he has, in my opinion, at least a leg up positionally for a position that makes great managers.  Understand, I wouldn't even necessarily consider Sweet based on my understanding I am not a fan.
• Joe Espada - He is Houston's bench coach and has coached a lot in the majors.
• Will Venable - He is Texas' bench coach and he apparently has ties to Mike Chernoff, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer article.

I have heard mention of batting coaches and pitching coaches from other teams.  I have also heard mention of former players like Charlie Nagy and Travis Fryman and that is not to say that wouldn't work.  I mean, look at Mike Matheny who managed the Cardinals to the playoffs without ever having been even a coach in the minors or majors.  

The key thing here is hiring the right person.  Everyone knew in 2013 Francona was the correct choice and so they pulled out all the stops.  At that point they had to convince Francona that Cleveland was the right place for him.   Now the story has changed.  All the good managers are already seated and will remain so in the game of managerial musical chairs.  The key will be for the FO to pick someone who will be good and hit the ground running and be able to be around for a long time, manage a game and relate to players and the club's analytics staff.  The FO will have to identify the right needle in the stack of needles they will sort through.  They have gotten so much wrong over the past year they can't afford to get this wrong, too.  This is where the FO has to stop screwing up and start earning their money.  If they don't, we are all screwed for years to come as Guardians' fans.

Random Thoughts - "Pain", Prep for the Minnesota Series, Left Handed Hitters, What Could have been and Our Minor Leauge Prospects

 PAIN

OK, in the middle of a crucial series with Minnesota.  That's where my focus is.  Kind of afraid I am going to be in for the disappointment of this year which was never exemplified more than by Saturday's game where Gimenez, Arias and Freeman struck out when we had loaded the bases with no outs after the Jays committed two errors on relatively easy ground balls.  On the other hand, I remember last year when we were struggling around this time of year and fans were jumping ship and then the Guardians put together a torrid September to pull away from the White Sox and Minnesota.  I also remember yesterday, when we kept coming back after blowing an early lead and, somehow, found a way to win.  So, as Clubber Lang said when asked what his prediction was, my prediction for this 3 game series is "Pain".  I hope it is pain/angst for the Twins if we can draw closer and not the Guardians and that the race is much closer after Wednesday.  Thus are the hopes of a diehard fan.

SERIES PREP

This is, of course, the most important series of the year.  No series before or after this has the importance of this series...until the next time we play Minnesota in less than a week.  Win 2 and we are still in the hunt.  Win 3 and it will make it interesting.  Loss 3 and it is over.  Lose 2 and we are almost out of it.  Just that simple.  Wish we had more veterans.  Wish Naylor was back.  But none of that matters.  We have what the FO has allowed us to have and we have to work with it.  Go Guards!

LEFT-HANDED HITTERS

Francona is, all the time, asking for right-handed hitters to balance out our lefty-learning lineup of the Naylor bros, Kwan, Brennan and Gimenez.  What the front office gives us, however, is more LH hitters in trades and in the draft.    

All this works, of course, if the LH hitters can hit LH pitching.  So far this year the splits for our LH hitters go like this:

Kwan:

vs LHP: /255/.324/.335

vs RHP: .273/.340/.390

Bo Naylor:

vs LHP: .179/.207/.250

vs RHP: .210/.308/.410

(NOTE: Last year, between AA and AAA, he hit .225 against lefties and .275 against righties)

Josh Naylor:

vs. LHP: .289/.324/485

vs. RHP: .312/.354/.506

Andres Gimenez:

vs LHP: .252/.323/.371

vs RHP: .232/.299/.392

Will Brennan

vs. LHP: .189/.211/230

vs RHP: .287/.302/.408

So, in theory, we would only need to platoon Brennan.  Not that Bo Naylor and Gimenez are hitting well overall but their splits are not the problem.  

That brings us to the Guardians predisposition to draft and trade for LH hitting position players (and some guys who are switch hitters).  Looking at the minor league stats of our LH hitting top position players here is what I see:

Chase DeLauter

vs LHP: .231/.222/.385

vs RHP:.373/.448/.579

(NOTE: One of the red flags about DeLauter before the draft is that early in the 2022 college season Florida State lefties carved him up.  So far he has extreme platoon splits which is, at least, a question mark for his projection in the major leagues.  Time will tell).

Kyle Manzardo

vs. LHP: .160/.266/.287

vs RHP: .269/.369/.500

(NOTE:  In 2022 those exreme splits were there but, at lower levels, he hit lefties better .265/.333/.485, making his 2023 at the same time concerning and possibly an aberration that will correct itself as he gains more experience and sees more and more quality LHP)

George Valera

vs LHP: .175/.333/.270

vs RHP: .239/.359/.428

(NOTE: In 2022 he hit lefties relatively better, going .237/.325/.384 compared to righties .255/.361/.483)

So, our top 3 LH hitting prospects all have platoon issues with lefties with Manzardo's the most concerning but DeLauter's concerning, as well, because they are buried in his overall stat line this year because he is simply carving up righties in A+ ball.  

Guys who have not made it to AAA really can't be judged completely as they have seen so few quality LHP in the low minors that it is only at AA and AAA that they will see more lefties to give us an idea of platoon splits.  Still, to put most of your eggs in the basket of LH hitters being able to handle LH pitchers by drafting and trading for LH hitters is fool-hardy IMO.  It is bad drafting and trading strategy UNLESS these guys are passable against LHP like Kole Calhoun has been (see below)

Suffice it to say that looking at the stats of these 3 prospects I don't really see one guy who is guaranteed to be an every day player in the majors.  But some said that about Josh Naylor last year and looked how that turned out with hard work.  That is a good reason to keep Kole Calhoun around as he appears to have been able to hit LH pitchers pretty well throughout his career.  Another reason to try to find a spot for him next season if he wants to stay at a reasonable price.

WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN

The DFA of Noah Syndergaard is just disgusting.  We are on the hook for all of his salary and getting nothing for it.  At the same time Amed Rosario, though not worth his salary, is being a productive role player for LA.  So, if you were LA would you rather have Syndergaard or Rosario right now?  The answer is clear and the same for the Guardians.  Trading Rosario should not have been an addition by subtraction move.  Low-budget teams like Cleveland cannot afford to throw ANY asset awy, especially not for a guy who costs you the same amount and is DFA'd less than a month later.

So, if we think what could have been: What would have happened if we kept Rosario.  The Guardians went 3-3 in Syndergaard's 6 starts although he gave up 5 runs in 3 of those starts.  He ate an average of 5.5 innings per start.  Could Gaddis or Battenfield done that well?  Doubtful.  

But what if we had kept Civale and kept Rosario and made Rosario the defacto DH?  Well, Civale outpitches Syndergaard every day of the week and he has averaged 5.2 innings a start for Tampa who have won 3 of his 4 starts.  The most runs he gave up in those starts is 3 runs which he did we times.

Now, what about keeping Rosario and making him the DH when Ramirez didn't take a day off from the field.  Well, here are the stats for our DHs since August 1 vs Rosario's Dodger stats in the same time.

(1) 67 AB,  7 R,  17 H,  5 RBI,  3 HR, 1 BB, 20 K

(2) 70 AB, 11 R, 17 H, 14 RBI, 3 HR,  4 BB,  7 K

So, which is which?  I think the Ks give it away as (1) is the non-Ramirez Cleveland DHs during that time while you can see how effective Rosario might have been in his (2) stats.  In essence, however, the difference between what we got and what Rosario could have produced is a wash meaning that keeping Rosario would have probably been a better move this year even if we never let him play the field!

Summary: So, if we had just kept Rosario and Civale we would be a lot better off than we are now.  Obviously how Manzardo develops will determine if that swings the balance of these deals back more to center but, right now, the FO looks like idiots for trading Rosario for Syndergaard and trading 2+ years of Civale for Manzardo, as both moves crippled us this season, both player-wise and financially when you include the unnecessary signing of Ramon Laureano whose salary balances out the scales from what we saved by trading Civale.

OUR MINOR LEAGUE PROSPECTS

Love that guys are still producing.  As I said, Cantillo is not quite ready as you could see from his outing yesterday.  But Chase DeLauter, Jonathon Rodriguez, Jose Tena, Brayan Rocchio, Juan Brito, Jaison Chourio and many other hitters are showing up and showing out while some of our pitchers like Tommy Mace, Cade Smith, Tanner Burns, Steve Hajjar and others are putting up multiple strong performances as their seasons wind down.  Even Ross Carver put in one gem (6.1 IP, 12 K, 1 ER) last week.   Jake Miller, Ethan Hankins and Ryan Webb are also putting up good numbers as they struggle to get innings in just to get ready for healthy 2024 seasons after injury-filled previous seasons.   Justin Campbell is even back on the mound and there is hope to see other injury guys back at full strength next spring. Hankins, if he finishes strong, may even be in line to be added to the 40-man this winter, something I wouldn't have bet a wooden nickel on this spring.  Franco Aleman has turned himself into an interesting relief prospect throwing close to 100 mph while not giving up a run in his nearly 2 months at AA.  So, lots to dream on in our prospects for the winter.  The fact that we have fallen to having only the 15th best farm system in baseball shows that the Guardians have a lot of work to do and our 2022 and 2023 draftees are, for the most part, looking really bad so far in their professional careers, if they were even healthy enough to start their careers!

Thoughts for A Monday

 Three game series with Minnesota

We can't worry about the disasters that have happened this year.  The Twins just played a tough series against the Rangers which will prepare them for this series as the Texas series was a lot like playoff baseball.

We have a chance.  We just need to continue to play hard baseball and the players and the coaching staff need to perform.

All the negative feelings that all of us have about this season need to be bottled up and put away and we all need to channel our emotions into cheering for our team.

The season is not over yet.  We still have a lot of baseball to play.  We need to have faith in our team.

I do.

Go Guardians!

Sunday Night Instant Thoughts: Guards win!....I win!

 OK, a short one here.  

Guards win!  Guards win!  Guards win!

Wonderful comeback and showing a lot of guts today in the win (game, series, season series) over Toronto.  But, lke everything else this season, it seems like every time something really good happens it is accompanied by something (or two) this is bad.  So, in a frustrating event today, while we had a great comeback so did Minnesota and we weren't able to gain ground on the Twins.   I know, I know, the season is really over but I will fight until we are officially eliminated thinking we have a chance to get within 4 games by Labor Day and then have a miraculous September and steal the division at the end of the year and get back to the playoffs with an 84-78 record.    Pipedream?  Yeah, but a die hard fan can hope, right.  So just when I though we would gain a game we had that exhilaration snatched out of our hands and ended the day treading water.  Still, good comeback and way to go Guards.

I win!  I win!  I win!

If you remember I posted (Cleveland Guardians Perspective: Noah Syndergaard - What's The Over/Under (ciperspective.blogspot.com)) that I thought the over/under for Syndergaard being DFA'd was September 1st and I was taking the under?  Well, I was right.  Yeah, me!

So, after winning, why do I feel so angry?  Well, it's because the FO made another stupid move.  Unless someone is more stupid than us (see picking up Laureano's remaining salary by claiming him off waivers when we had already given up on the season) we will be eating Syndergaard's significant salary the rest of the year AND GET NOTHING FOR IT!!!!!!!

BTW, Rosario is slashing .282/.463/.744 for LA.  Looks like a good deal for the Dodgers.  They dump their trash and we pay for it with Rosario...and our cash.   Perfect.  Congratulations, Antonetti, you screwed up again.  You are becoming the laughing stock of baseball and other GMs are lining up to trade with you as you haven't made a good trade since the Clevinger trade and, except for the Lindor trade, the Straw trade and the Fry trade, you haven't even made a trade where you didn't get robbed!

DSL Recap

 The Cleveland Guardians operate 2 teams in the Dominican Summer League.  Generally players start there as 16-17 year olds but there are older players, too.  Sometimes players will stay in the DSL for more than one year but, generally, not more than 3 years. 

The Guardians recent strategy appears to be signing position players in the international signing periods and sign college pitchers from the annual amateur player draft.  

With all that in mind, here is my ranking of the prospects who played for the Guardians in the DSL this year.

Statistically, to put things in perspective, the HR leader in the DSL had 15 HR.  The higest ranking Guardian was Jose Pirela who tied for 16th with 6 HR.  The highest OPS was 1.128 with Welbyn Francisca ranking 28th at .919.  The leader in walks had 61 with Yerlin Luis having 56 to rank second in the DSL in that category.  The DSL leader in stolen bases had 33 with the Guardians leader, Jonathon Martinez, tied for 37th with 16.

1. Welbyn Francisca - Far and away the best Guardians prospect in the DSL, he was also the highest paid international signing in Jan. 2023.  

2. Jose Pirela - Pirela led the Guardians with 6 HRs and 11 doubles.  Playing on the team Francisca was not on, Pirela was the leader, hitting 3rd most of the season with an .875 OPS.

3. Luis Merejo - Had 4 HR and 12 XBH in 134 ABs while hitting .321 with a .441 OBP and an .826 OPS.

4. Yerlin Luis - Luis had a funky season as a leadoff hitter.  He only hit .224 but walked 54 times for a .478 OBP and a .72 OPS.  He only had 15 SB despite that OBP and did strike out 42 times but the batting eye and his pedigree as the 2nd highest bonus of Jan 2023 means that the potential is there.

5. Yeikel Mijares - As a second baseman he had an .826 OPS and had 4 HRs.  

6. Luis Aparicio - Aparicio is the lone 2nd year position player on this list.  He had a .337 BA and 10 doubles but only had 8 BB and 5 Ks in 104 ABs for an OPS of .854.  He is the grandson of former major leaguer Luis Aparicio and is my choice as the late blooming position player on this list and appears to be on the steep part of his learning curve.  You would like to see him start 2024 at least in Lynchburg as he will already be in his 3rd year as a professional.  

7. Jonathon Martinez - He had 2 HRs and, as said before, led our DSL prospects with 16 SB although he only hit .246.

8. Melkis Hernandez - While his stats don't stand out he pitched well early and he is about the youngest of pitchers we have in the system, playing this season at 17/18 years old.  Still a little old for this level, he definitely deserves to be on this list as someone to watch.

There are no other pitchers on this list as they were all 19-23 years old. The other position players did not stand out to me based on their stats.  Realize, however, that the paradigm I used (i.e., some outstanding results and a young age) obviously does not uncover raw tools/potential.  There may be more guys who develop later but these 7 hitters seemed like the best prospects.  Note that any prospect who transitioned to the ACL during the season after starting in the DSL will be considered with the ACL team.

Friday Thoughts - Francona leaving, suspension vs rainout, minor league musings, taking it home (i.e. the rest of the regular season)

Francona Leaving

It looks like we are about to witness the end of an era in Cleveland as the soon-to-be bionic man, Terry Francona, is likely to pack it in as the manager of the Cleveland Guardians in favor of his personal health as he continues to have body parts replaced and surgeries done.  Here are some thoughts:

• It is time.  He is obviously feeling the pressure of having to manage hard every game.  Every managerial decision that turned out bad is exposed as second guessing only becomes important when your team is underperforming.  His predilection for playing veterans over young players, playing young players who suck (for some reason) and holding young players more accountable than he holds his veterans were always there.  It is just in this season they are more obvious as this team tried to walk the razor's edge.
• The game has passed him by.  While 7 years ago he was an innovator, now the game is passing him by.  His lack of grasp of the challenge system is obvious on a daily basis.  His irritation with umpires has boiled over more times than it should have been.  His only lately embdracing the opener paradigm was concerning, meaning he had to have 5 solid starters or he was lost.
• If Antonetti and Co. REALLY loved Francona they would have NOT hung him out to dry this year.  Stupid FA signings and stupid trades this winter really doomed this team, choosing guys to stay and FAs who underperformed with the guys they got rid of having great years that we could have used here.  The cherry on the sundae occurred at the deadline where we traded away assets and, essentially, got nothing bad.  A tenuous season sent down the tubes.  Bringing in Calhoun, Laureano and Hasse were stupid attempts to placate Francona whose stressful job as manager was made even worse by getting rid of his veterans and making him manage rookies while attempting to win, basically Francona's worst nightmare.

Suspension vs Rainout

No one questioned the rainout vs suspension decision.  As this situation does not come up often I have to wonder if this is a new thing or not.  My memory is that when a game isn't official the results are washed away and you have to start over.  Obviously that didn't happen as the Dodgers were gifted a 3-1 lead by the suspension in a game that only went 2 innings when it should have been a 0-0 game if it had been ruled a rainout.  HUGE advantage to the Dodgers by that decision.

Hopefully there is some black and white explanation from the rules rather just MLB's or the umpire's or even the teams' discretion on whether to invoke a rainout or just continue the game.   I still want to fight for every win and if Cleveland just played the good guys and allowed it to be a suspension I will be really pissed.  

Taking it Home (i.e, the rest of the regular season)

• We need to play the rookies.  Sending down Rocchio was just a joke as we SHOULD have sent down Arias a long time ago.  On cue for his Oscar Mercado-like AAAA performance, Arias celebrated his umpteenth reprieve  from a trip to Columbus by going 3-4 (with the HR being his only hard hit ball).  Just like Mercado, Arias always flashes just enough to convince the hope-against-hope Cleveland fan that maybe he is coming out of it, finally, after 2 years.  With Rocchio down Arias certainly will get the opportunties to prove me wrong.  
• I will say this for the 100th time.  What in the freakin' heck are we doing bringing in these AAAA veterans?  This is the biggest joke of 3 years of jokes from our FO.   With the poor drafts of 2022 and 2023, the loss of Jones, Benson and Civale with little return, these 'gifts' will keep on giving for years to come.  
• I don't want to get rid of Antonetti.  I want him to clean up his mess.  But, and this is just my guess, he needs to get rid of his ego, roll up his sleeves and actually HELP this team instead of trying to bask in the glory of his greatness, thinking he is above the game.  And fix his analytics and draft departments that are clearly broken, maybe more than any team in baseball.
• We need to fix our challenge department.  They are slow reacting and not very sharp in their challenges, sometimes challenging things that are laughable and obviously wrong.  Don't know if this is tracked but my guess is that we lead the league in shortest review times for our challenges as they are so bad it doesn't take New York long to overturn them.  In fact, they would probably be shorter but the guys in New York have to stop laughing long enough to convey the result to the umpires at the game.

Minor League Musings

• Chase DeLauter makes a stumbling, sprawling catch that has me grimacing that he might be going back to the DL and people are praising his defense.  Folks, this guy is NOT a centerfielder.  If his arm plays well he can end up in right, if not, in left.  But no matter what he will be another LH hitter...like we don't have too many of those already.  Instead of overvaluing his defense based on one play, we need to worry about him incorporating his lower half in his swing and what that may mean long term to his development.  The guy swings basically with his hands and arms and barrels up more balls than I have ever seen a prospect barrel up.  However, his power is currently warning track power due to him not incorporating his lower half
• Kyle Manzardo is now 0-11 as a Cleveland Guardians' farmhand.   Aaron Civale's new team Tampa Bay is 3-1 in his 4 starts.  
• Ralphy Velasquez mashed for an OPS of 1.132 in the first 6 games of his professional career in the ACL.  He only played one game at catcher, one at 1B and the other 4 as a DH.  Remember, that no one questioned before the draft whether he could hit.  The reason he was only the 37th best prospect in the draft was because he was position limited and it was questioned whether he could stay at catcher AND because not all great HS hitters develop into ML players.
• Parker Messick looked really good in his previous 3 starts at Lake County showing increased fastball velocity.  He looked good in the first 3 innings of his most recent start and then got touched up in the 4th inning.  Don't know what that means but, as I said before, his remaining starts will be interesting.
• I saw Matt Etzel, my 9th round pick in my 2023 mock draft, play against Lynchburg this week.  He wad drafted in the 10th round by Baltimore and, at this point, looks like a steal.  So far he is hitting .300 in his short professional caree with a .906 OPS and has 12 stolen bases in 71 plate appearances.  Admittedly this is all at Rookie and A ball but compared to the $1 million dollar man Alex Mooney (.419 OPS in A ball), CJ Kayfus (.702  OPS in A ball) and Tommy Hawke (.675 OPS as a college player in the ACL), Etzel, who was drafted much lower than any of these guys, looks pretty good to me.  More on this after the minor league season is over when I compare the first-year performances by my 2023 mock draftees compared to the guys the Guardians drafted.  Spoiler alert: bring a barf bag because, as Guardians fans, they are going to make you want to throw up.
• Will Dion - While I know his fastball 'velocity' gives him very little chance of being successful in the majors, he still finds a way to get it done, even in his extended look at AA.  Maybe something marvelous will happen and his FB velocity will go up to 96 mph while maintaining his command.  Then we can change the nickname form Little Kershaw to Kershaw Part Deux, or something like that.
• It will be interesting to see how Jaison Churio does in his late-season cameo at Lynchburg.  It is really interesting to note that A LOT of guys who are playing at A, A+ and AA ball right now are recent callups with fewer than 20 games at their highest level.  So, as I mentioned in an earlier post, looking at guys who have spent the whole season at one minor league level and are now seeing a spike in performance at the end of the season means that at least some of this spike could result from the best players in their league leaving and being replaced by guys who are just getting used to a new level.  If your competition is weaker this could lead to an improvement in performance that is actually just from playing against weaker competition.  

Thoughts for a Wednesday: What's Next For Manzardo? Chase DeLauter's Power and Potpourri

 Kyle Manzardo

Well, as predicted here, the Guardians got Manzardo some hollow ABs in the ACL as the DH.  The results are meaningless but it wasn't exactly like he was killin' it, going 0-11 although he did have 2 hits washed away in Sunday's rainout.

So what is next?  Will they send him up to AA or AAA to get more ABs in or will they shut him down for the season now that they think they have proven that they didn't trade for a guy who was damaged goods at the time.

There is a lot of pressure on Manzardo and, by association, Chris Antonetti, for Manazardo to look like a real steal in this deal that gave up 2+ years of control of the cheap, effective ML starting pitcher Aaron Civale. 

Manzardo takes his .000 BA in the ACL to Columbus starting today.  Interesting to see how often he will play, whether he will do more than DH and how he will perform.

Chase DeLauter

I have seen most of DeLauter's Lake County ABs this year and two things stand out:

1. He has great hand-eye coordination, barreling up MANY more balls than any prospect I have seen this year for any team.
2. He is not incorporating his lower body at all in his swing.  It is my understanding that a lot of the power comes from your lower half.  The red flag here is that his leg injury is not better and he is compensating for it by using his hands and arms.  I think the result is that he is not hitting many HRs and is making good, loud contact but the balls are not leaving the yard.  Happened twice in the last couple of games. 

If his injury heals this winter and he comes into ST in 2024 healthy and remains so, being able to incorporate his bottom half into his swing without losing the bat dontrol he has displayed this year, he may be the a pretty darn good power hitter moving forward.  If he foot continues to hinder him, he will be just another slap hitting LH hitting outfielder that the Guardians have about a million of in the minors already.

Pot Pourri

• Even though I know it is trolling-like, I am looking at the understandably small sample size with Alex Mooney.  I see .156 BA, .250 OPB, .219 SLG and the resulting .469 OPS in 36 PA for Lynchburg where he is about 1 year above the average age and all I can think is "So this is what $1 million buys us in today's dollars."  Getting a talent like Alex Mooney in the 6th round is a steal.  Paying 3rd round money for this level of production is really, really bad. 
• The rest of the Guardians 2023 draftees so far in small sample size:
• Cooper Ingle - 22 PA in Lake County where he is young for the league - .375/.546/.500
• CJ Kayfus - 34 PA at Lynchburg - .231/.412/.385
• Alex Clemmey - Not pitching
• Andrew Walters - Not pitching
• Christian Knapczyk - Not playing
• Tommy Hawke - .234/,381/.294 as an overage college player in the ACL
• Ralphy Velazquez - ,348/.393/.739 as an underage player in the ACL in 28 PA
• Jonah Advincula - .250/.519/.563 as a way overage player in the ACL in 26 PA
• Jay Driver - .4.50 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 18.0 K/9 IP between ACL and Lynchburg
• Matt Wilkinson - 1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP and 3 Ks in the ACL in
• Not including here the other 2023 draftees as the sample sizes are REALLY small.
• Kole Calhoun with a great, clutch HR last night, Jonathon Rodriguez with his 9th HR in AAA, and an overall slash line of .296/.364/.512 at AAA.   So let's say we keep Calhoun.  We need to dump Laureano, the signing of whom was a BIG mistake as we owe him his salary for doing what we could get out of Oscar Gonzalez.  Free (and bring up on September 1st) Jonahton Rodriguez  As he should be protected this winter anyway, this is not much of a stretch.
• Parker Messick on the bump tonight for LC.  Let's see if he can keep his velocity up tonight and continue his good run at the end of the season.
• Even though he still has a lot to learn, Jhonkensy Noel continues to appear to get better and better this season at AAA.
• Free (and bring up) Daniel Schneeman
• Free (and activate off the IL) David Fry
• Fee (i.e., release) Cam Gallagher
• Free (and bring up) Bryan Lavastida - Taking Eric Haase off waivers may have eliminated this as a possibility, however.
• I ask the same questions I have asked before: Are Korey Holland, Aaron Bracho and Daniel Schneeman really prospects who will continue to be on a steep upward trajectory of development?  I add Bryan Lavastida to that list as of today.
• Magnus Ellerts is really interesting...up to 95 mph last night with good command and the makings of two good breaking balls.
• Joey Cantillo is almost ready.  Another half season at AAA and he will be ready to take up a position next to Williams and Bibee in the rotation.   Right now?  He could get some long relief innings in the majors at the end of the season if that is what the Guardians want him to do.
• I am preparing a post on the DSL season and who I think our top prospects were and what to expect from them next season.  Will post that by tomorrow followed after that by a similar ACL prospect post.

Now that the season is officially over...

...we need to start being real about what is going on the rest of the year. 

The moves we have made: bringing in guys off waivers from Oakland and Detroit and bringing in a 35 year old fat guy who couldn't crack a ML roster this year just scream of Francona saying that he needs veterans.   If any of these three guys (Calhoun, Laureano, Haase) are on this roster when it is frozen in November, it is a sign that this organization is floundering beyond belief.  How anyone (read: our less than astute FO) can think that having these guys on this roster right now is a good thing is beyond me.  Winning games isn't important right now.  Playing the kids and seeing what we have IS the only important thing.

There is no sense in doing anything right now, but everything that we should do in September should be based on who we think might be on the team next year.   That being said, here are the roster moves I would make on September 1st:

1. DFA Cam Gallagher, Ramon Laureano and Michael Kelly

2. Bring up Jonathon Rodriguez, Cody Morris and Brian Lavastida from the minors

3. Leave in the minors Joey Cantillo, Hunter Gaddis, Peyton Battenfield, Juan Brito, Angel Martinez, Jhonkensy Noel, Jose Tena and George Valera

4. Make a decision whether Quantrill, McKenzie or Bieber will pitch again this year and what moves you would be comfortable with if they come off the IL and have to be rostered.

5. While Kole Calhoun has performed well, it is hard to justify him being on this roster for the rest of the season if we don't really care about whether we win any more games.  Consider DFAing him if we need the 40-man roster space.  Ditto for Eric Haase if Fry and Lavastida are healthy.

6. I would love to bring up Daniel Schneeman as a reward for a great season but I sense that ship already sailed when we brought up Tena.  Amazing.  We can bring in all these DFA guys from teams with losing records but can't give one of our own a reward and see what he has after a good AAA season.  Yeah, I know we have umpteen middle infield prospects we have to sort out and Columbus skews statistics but, really, you can't give one of your own a chance?  If he performs well it increases his trade value, too.  

Have I mentioned that winning games is not a priority right now?  Why are we doing half-hearted things that are costing us money and our prospects experience?  Time to cut the crap and play the kids...and if it isn't successful right now, we get a better draft slot next year.

 

All You Booers of Paul Dolan - Listen Closely

 I have never really been on the 'Dolan Is Cheap" train.  Yes, the thought has occurred to me on occasion and I have even written those words a time or two.

But the guy, for being an owner in Cleveland, is not cheap.  He is a good steward of the team's money.  This is not Monopoly money we are talking about here, these are real dollars.

So, I have to ask you how would you have liked him to spend money?

• Would you have liked him to OK a $60 million/3 year deal to Jose Abreu instead of the 2 year deal with Josh Bell?  Well, Abreu is hitting .234 this year with 10 HRs.  Bell actually has much better stats and, even if we kept Bell we would have gotten better production for less money than what Abreu is giving the Astros, who have the spectre of his contract hanging over their heads.  
• Who else would you have gotten: Andrew Benitendi and his .689 WAR for 5 yrs, $75 million? Michael Conforto and his 0.8 WAR for 2 yrs, $36 million? Mitch Haniger and his -0.4 WAR for 3 yrs and $43.5 million?  Trey Mancini and his -1.4 WAR for 2 yrs, $14 million?  Willson Contreras and his 5 yr, 87.5 million when we have Naylor in the wings? Joc Pederson and his 0.6 WAR for $19.5 million?  Now, Brandon Drury and JD Martinez would have made sense but neither position was needed on our team.   Josh Bell made just as much sense as these two.
• It was Dolan who pushed to get a deal done to keep Jose Ramirez here long term.
• It was Dolan who opened his checkbook to the tune of $40 million to sign Bell and Mike Zunnino on the advice of his FO, analytics and scouting staff
• It is Dolan who allowed his scouting department to go over by the max amount on the bonuses he paid 2022 and 2023 draftees.
• Dolan OK'd taking on Laureano's and Kole Calhoun's salaries when the team had already given up on the season AND when we had prospects who could have used those ABs.

If you want to boo anyone you should be booing Chris Antonetti and, to a much lesser extent, Terry Francona.  

Antonetti is responsible for the terrible analytics that led to the signing of Bell and Zunino.  He is also responsible for the terrible analytics that led to picking Will Brennan over Nolan Jones and Will Benson.  He is also responsible for the lopsided trades where we lost Junior Caminero, Benson, Owen Miller, Carlos Vargas, Amed Rosario and, to a lesser extent, Nolan Jones, Aaron Civale and Bell (going out the door) getting much less than equal value back in every one of those trades.  He also has responsibility for two pathetic drafts in a row.  Finally, Antonetti also is responsible for bringing in Laureano and Calhoun and keeping Gallagher when we had already thrown in the towel on the season and should have used every AB and every inning to get younger guys experience going into next year...and making decisions about keeping or trading some of those guys.

Francona is responsible for staying with his veterans too long because it is the easy way to go and for not managing the young players effectively this year.  Most of what he has done, even in this year, has been miraculous but his complicity in the screwups by Antonetti is, IMO, real.  Plus, he is not nurturing with young players, totally favoring veterans, even when they suck, and, despite what the stats say, it appears to me like he is a disaster when it comes to challenges where he always looks flustered and has repeatedly failed to challenge things that other managers have been successful challenging.

SUMMARY

So, when you are booing Dolan, realize that if Antonetti had made good trades, the right FA signings (or come up with a way to be successful W/O expensive FA signings, like playing Rosario mostly at DH), we would be in a much better place now, likely in the thick of the AL Central race.    

Now, if you want an owner who will spend to offset the FO and managerial screwups like they do have in New York. feel free to boo Dolan.  But remember, that is not even a guarantee of success as the Yankees are 60-64 and essentially out of the playoff picture as are the Mets (58-67).  

Look, this was a bad year.  Bad performances, bad injury luck, free agents who sucked.  It is just bad.  The difference between us and, say, the Texas Rangers from 2022, is that we are constantly throwing away assets and not effectively replenishing the farm system like the Reds did through trades and good drafts.    But, like the Rangers this year, we have enough juice to compete for the division championship in 2024.

So, if you want to boo someone, the next time Chris Antonetti's name is announced on the stadium PA system, boo the hell out of him.  While I still love the guy as our leader maybe he will get the idea of how bad he sucked up this season and lose whatever ego he has and actually do something that helps this team now and in the future instead of tearing it down with stupid trades, stupid draft picks and stupid free agent signings.  He isn't bad as our club president, he just needs to be MUCH better than he has been.  

So, feel free to boo Antonetti, but leave Paul Dolan alone...at least for now.

Sunday Morning Thoughts: Is it really Jonathon Rodriguez Time, Veteran Presence, Battle of Ohio

As we approach the game on Sunday where a loss to Detroit will (unofficially) end the Guardians chances to make the playoffs, some things come to mind.

BATTLE OF OHIO

The Reds just called up Noelvi Marte (#24 prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline) who is like the millionth top 100 prospect in baseball that they have already called up this year.  They still have Rhett Lowder (#44), Edwin Arroyo (#61) and Connor Phillips (#71) who they have yet to call up.   

From what I can see the Reds are looking more and more like the Guardians of the early/md-90s where they have exactly the set of prospects that they need to have to be competitive for a long time.  They only need to add a few veterans through free agency who pan out (sort of like Dennis Martinez and Orel Hersheiser did) and sprinkle in a few relievers and they could be the NL Central team to beat for years to come.

So what does that mean for the Guardians?  Well, the Guardians are a shipwreck.  They have wasted talented prospects and gambled on free agents and gotten little, if nothing, in return.   They have bet on certain prospects (Will Brennan) while deciding to let other ones (Jones, Benson) go with disastrous results.  

Look at the Reds transactions in the past 2 years.  They have not wasted money on failed FAs.  They have not had bad drafts (2022 grade A-, 2022 grade for Guardians B-; 2023 draft grade A).  They made great trades (Luis Castillo, Tyler Maile) with guys who they likely couldn't sign and got guys back who are top prospects in baseball and already in the major leagues and, finally, when faced with bringing in veterans or giving their young guys a chance IN THE MIDDLE OF A PENNANT RACE, they chose the young guys.

Right now the Guardians' FO sucks and not only are they costing us a playoff spot, they are making it so we can't even win the battle of Ohio, for gosh sakes.

IS IT JONATHON RODRIGUEZ TIME?

Interestingly, when the Reds called up Marte there was an interesting note that his AAA OPS of .820 was just slightly above average in AAA this year.  That means Jhonkensy Noel's .710 OPS gives him a wRC+ of 74,  which is utility infielder like.  Wow!

Which brings us to Jonathon Rodriguez.  With the failure of Will Brennan, the failure of Juan Gonzalez and the failure of Gabriel Arias, to say nothing about the semi-failures of Tyler Freeman and Brayan Rocchio this year (not that these are real long term failures) fans are asking why we haven't brought up Jonathon Rodriguez.   It's a fair question and one that I think that will be addressed on September 1st.  Right now don't expect to see any other roster movement as they aren't going to DFA Laureano or Calhoun, DFA someone else or blow a minor league option on anyone for two weeks of production when we can't even beat the rebuilding Tigers when we are playing them at home.

So, on September 1st when the rosters expand expect them to promote Rodriguez and Cody Morris and, unless someone else goes on the IL, that will be it.  Too bad as Daniel Schneeman deserves and congratulatory promotion and, like so many other times, the Guardians missed the boat on a feel good story.  

One more point.  If, at some point, we DFA Laureano and he is not picked up on waivers we will have thrown away about $1 million...and for what?  At least if we had brought someone up from the minors we would have saved that money.  More on this below when I talk about veteran presence.

VETERAN PRESENCE

Look, it is just a fact.  Every young team needs veteran presence to show the young guys the way to play in the majors and to provide a leveling influence by providing steady production in the face of highs and lows that young players can have.

Manny Ramirez spoke of this yesterday in his interview when he said, as a young player, he watched and learned from Dave Winfield.  

While that's great, Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano are NOT those players right now.  Potentially Calhoun is one of those players next year but this year, if we lose to Detroit on Sunday, we need to give ABs to young players, not some grizzled veteran trying to get enough service time for him pension.

The reason for this is simple.  Who gives a flying flip if we lose every one of the games for the rest of the season if we weren't going to make the playoffs anyway?  I mean, freakin' Texas was like 68-94 last year and they are 72-51 this season.  If you have the talent a one year negative blip means nothing.  If you DON'T have the talent you need to find out what your talent is like.

Last year, based on a few ABs, the Guardians chose Will Brennan over Will Benson and Nolan Jones.  That has turned out to be a devastatingly stupid mistake when you look at the production for all three this year.  Going into next year we have ZERO RFers.  ZERO.   

So we need to find out, at every position, who can play and you don't do that by giving ABs to Cam Gallagher, Kole Calhoun, Ramon Laureano and Zack Collins.  Give the young guys the ABs.  Screw the record for this year.  The worse you are, the better the draft picks next year...as if our draft people can ever do anything well with their heads firmly implanted up their butts.  But, at least they have a better chance with higher slots.  

If the season is essentially over after today, we need to fill this roster with all the young people we are going to roster this winter and maybe even some we are unsure of and give those guys some play.  There is really no place on this roster for guys who we know are not going to be part of this team next year, 'veteran presence' be damned.  

Suck it up Tito and manage your rear end off.   

And, FO.  Stop screwing up and wasting valuable resources and get us some freaking studs next year WiTHOUT overspending your farm system assets.  THAT, like 1994 and 1995, is how you supplement a good, young nucleus and provide APPROPRIATE veteran leadership!

Geez, people, let's go!

Does Our Management, Including FO and Francona, Hold Grudges/Get Closed Minded About A Player?

 Look, none of us know what is said in these meetings where they send players to the minors, either during spring training or during the year.    It is possible that the players say things that the manager and/or FO don't want to hear about how badly they are doing their jobs.  It is possible that those things are said once the player gets to the minors after being sent down and this gets back to the FO/Francona.  

None of us know.

But what we do know is that there are some pretty f****d up/head scratching player decisions that are being made recently.   Besides the fact that the best player acquisitions since the end of the 2020 season are David Fry and Enyel De Los Santos and there are PLENTY of bad player decisions including:

• Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers
• Signing Josh Bell
• Signing Mike Zunino
• Will Benson for Boyd/Haffer
• Nolan Jones for Juan Brito (who needed to be rostered after his A ball season)
• Owen Miller for cash
• Carlos Vargas for Ross Carver

So, today, we had a couple of more moves:

• Daniel Norris DFA and Tim Herrin promoted.  This is actually a good move as it brings back Herrin and causes us to DFA a replacement level player in Norris who has pitched a lot recently and so is probably not an option over the next couple of games.
• Placed Cam Gallagher on the concussion IL and brought up Zack Collins.  This seems like an odd move to me.  Collins is not a great catcher and, like Bo Naylor, bats left handed.   The obvious move would have to bring up homegrown Bryan Lavastida, who hits righthanded.  I guess you could say that Lavastida is 0 for his last 20 and that would hold water until you look and Collins is 2 for his last 20.  The move should have been to bring up Lavastida

We also, recently, did or did not do the following:

• Brought up Jose Tena who played all of one game at AAA
• Did not bring up Daniel Schneeman who had a whole season of great production at Columbus
• Did not bring up James Karinchak (fixed today)

The questions I have here are:

• Did Karinchak and Jones say or do something to make Francona and/or the FO mad at them?
• What is the player evaluation process that led to all of the decisions above?

I literally don't have the answer to the above questions but the answers, the real answers, might tell us a lot about why we are hemorrhaging ML players without getting enough back and having a bad ML season.

Thoughts for a Wednesday

UPDATED TOP PROSPECT LIST 

1. I have updated my top prospects lists I just posted a couple of days ago.  Only a couple of changes at the bottom as I added in Connor Koxx (the guy is holding his own at AA in really only his 2nd pro season and has already stolen 20 bases which is a nice milestone meaning they think you have at least one above-average tool.  All of which will keep you in the organization's visibility.  Add that to the fact that he did get some play in ST and it means that, at least, he is on the periphery of their priority prospect list) and Melkis Hernandez (even though I take any Guardians' DSL pitcher who has had success with a grain of salt as their DSL pitchers tend to be older than normal and afterthought signings, he is a DSL all-star which counts for, at least, something).

DANIEL SCHNEEMAN

I love that, even though he got passed over for the cup-of-coffee promotion that Tena got, he is still raking and playing defense.  I love having the Guardians' AAA team in Columbus but it is a hitter's paradise which skews a player's stats so much that it makes it almost impossible to tell what is real and what is Memorex.  That being said, Schneeman is looking more and more like an organizational development success and less like an organizational filler and should have at least made his ML debut this year.  With Vallimont (at the time) we had a spot for him but used all our existing 40-man roster spots for Calhoun/Laureano.  Schneeman should have gotten the call based on PERFORMANCE.   It is such a boon for an organization to show that if an organizational player performs he will, at least, be able to fulfill his dream of getting into a ML game.  We have blown this opportunity and hopefully it won't come back to haunt us, either from a PR POV or in the loss of a real asset to the Rule 5 or a stupid trade (see below) this off-season.

ALEX CLEMMEY

Guardians Prospective posted that he will not play in the ACL this year but that he will be pitching in the Fall Instructs this year.   I have heard this tune before and then we get the announcement that a guy is being held back due to an injury, just in the abundance of caution.  Then, a little later, we hear that he is having some sort of arm surgery and is done for a year or so.    You can say that I am being paranoid and maybe I am but when Zinn and Bresnahan, two 2023 HS draftees, have each already pitched in ACL games, it adds extra fuel to the fire of Clemmey being injured.

 In ST they pass out daily activity lists and you could tell right away when certain pitchers were only doing PFP or were only doing strength training that they were having arm problems.  Every one of those guys (Campbell, Santos, Rivera Jr, DeLucia) ended up with arm surgery or a long-term rehab of some type.   This seems to be more of the same with Clemmey.    If he is, in fact, significantly injured and we paid $2.3 million (almost $900,000 over slot) for him, making him one of the two crown jewels of our 2023 draft and we find out that he may have been injured at draft time, it will be yet another black eye for our draft 'experts'.   An organization like Cleveland can't make these kinds of mistakes and to overpay for an injured guy (remember, it cost us penalty money as well as bonus money), is inexcusable, IMO. 

JOSE RAMIREZ HITTING SECOND

I don't know if I am more pissed that I didn't think of it at all or that it took the Guardians this long to think of it but the idea of hitting Ramirez 2nd is just genius.   As a fan by marriage of the Cardinals, I see the advantage of taking your MVP caliber position player (Paul Goldschmidt) and hitting him second.  We have been battling all year to find an effective 2-hole hitter and he was already here.  Now all we have to do is find another two run producers to hit in the top 5 with Josh Naylor filling the other slot.  

Also, in all transparency, I am, again, mad at me and mad at the Guardians for not seeing that Rosario would not be able to handle SS when he was put out on an island by the shift rules.  Although it would have been unconventional this team would have been a whole lot better if we had just put Rosario at DH and allowed one of the young middle infielders to start the year at SS.   It would have saved us a lot of money and frustration on Josh Bell.  That being said, most Cleveland fans would have been pissed if we had gone that direction as it wouldn't really have added offense to the club.  Bell was the PR-friendly signing but not the best baseball move.

ARE WE LOOKING AT PLAYER CONTROL MANUEVERING HERE OR WHAT?

It is really hard to figure out why Michael Kelly is still on this team with Karinchak at AAA.  The thought occurred to me with Bo Naylor and the Super 2 maneuvering that may have gone on there that maybe keeping Karinchak in the minors makes for so long makes it so he won't go to arbitration this winter.

Also, we likely wouldn't want to send any of our other current relievers besides Kelly down as none of them have used a minor league option this year and you wouldn't want to burn one for less than a month.  

So, I think Karinchak will be back up in September when the rosters expand and we keep him from being eligible for arbitration this winter and, even if he is, he won't have a strong case for a big bump in salary due to his year this year and his extended time in the minors.

Or, maybe we just think he is a headcase and we are done with him.  From all his pitch clock issues, his no vax stance and some other quirks in his behavior, maybe Francona is not mentally equipped to deal with guys like that and they are just freezing him out like they did Nolan Jones last year, ending up making some stupid trade over the winter to do an addition by subtraction thing.

Time will tell.

PERFORMANCE BUMPS BY THE PLAYERS WE TRADED.  DO WE HAVE AN INEPT PLAYER EVALUATION/PERFORMANCE PROJECTION METHODOLOGY?

Will Benson's double last night just poured salt in the wound of what has been a terrible 2.7 years for our FO.  Added to that the bump Bell got in his stats when he went to Miami, Nolan Jones platoon-limited but persistent performance this year, Benson's solidification as a major league with a MUCH reduced strikeout rate and even the help Owen Miller gave Milwaukee early in the year and the fact that we took cash over a PTBNL for him, reinforces my position that the FO sucks in making trades and, for the last two years, in drafting.   Add to that the 2+ years of control we gave up for a quality, reasonably-priced ML #3-4 starter in Civale (see KYLE MANZARDO below), it points out, once again that we are throwing away quality assets and not getting much back.  Small market teams like the Guardians can trade prospects but they have to get equal value back.  I doubt that in any of those trades above we got equal value back, reinforcing what I have said before.  Since the end of the 2020 season, we have made a lot of bad trades and signings and only have the David Fry for JC Mejia trade and Enyel De Los Santos signing as anything close to resembling positive moves.

KYLE MANZARDO

Here we are in the middle of August and the silence from the FO or player development staff on the status of Manzardo is deafening.    I think it is a distinct possibility that his shoulder injury is serious enough that we might not see him at all the rest of this minor league season or, at best, he might come back for a few games in a save-face cameo as our AAA DH to make it look like less than a disaster that we traded for a significantly injured prospect when we were holding all the cards when we had Civale.  Hey, Antonetti, you can't play the 'we're playing the long game' card when your moves fall flat on their face like this one appears to be doing.  Bringing in an injured guy who is so hurt he won't help you this year or for most of next year, if then.

PLAYOFF CHANCES

We keep hanging on the edges of getting back in the AL Central race and, thanks to Minnesota, we stay agonizingly close making every game pressre-packed.

That being said, we are still hanging on being buoyed by our young starting pitching being nothing short of outstanding.

Now if we can just keep hitting and get our other starting pitchers back and Josh Naylor can get healthy, maybe we can remain relevant in this race.  

I can tell you, last September and Ochave  The maddening situations and injuries we have seen this season have made it really hard on us die hard Guardians fans who have been spoiled by overperforming in the Francona years.

Updated Post-Deadline, Post-Promotion Top Prospect List - August, 2023

***UPDATED 8/16/2023***

Here is an updated top 100 Guardians prospect list after the deadline deals and promotions.  For fun, I recounted my 2023 mock draft and (entries without rankings, in bold font) where the players I selected fit into this list.  Remember my mock draft only selected the first 10 rounds and it was assumed I would take the same picks the Guardians did in rounds 11-20.   Our 2023 draft picks are in italics,

1. Daniel Espino

Hurston Waldrep

2. Kyle Manzardo

3. Chase DeLauter

4. Juan Brito

5. Joey Cantillo

6. George Valera

7. Jaison Chourio

8. Welbyn Francisca

9. Alex Clemmey

10. Angel Martinez

11. Petey Halpin

12. Angel Genao

13. Jhonkensy Noel

14. Ralphy Velasquez

15. Dayan Frias

16. Justin Campbell

17. Doug Nikhazy

18. Jonathon Rodriguez

19.. Jose Tena

Jack Gelof

20. Cody Morris

21. Jake Fox

22. Khalil Watson

23. Hunter Gaddis

24. Tanner Burns

25. Andrew Walters

Joe Whitman

Levi Wells

Tanner Witt (didn't actually sign - assumed he would take $1 million)

26. Will Dion

27. Tyler Thornton

28. Tommy Mace

Michael Carico

Jake Bohrofen

29. Jackson Humphries

30. Parker Messick

31. Daniel Schneeman

32. Franco Aleman

33. Jacob Zibin

Blake Dickerson

34. Ethan Hankins

35. Wuilfredo Antunez

36. Rafael Ramirez Jr.

37. Rafael Devers

38. Robert Lopez

39. Ryan Webb

40. Jose Cedeno

41. Estaban Gonzalez

42. Alex Mooney

Alex Mooney

43. Bryan Lavastida

44. Milan Tolentino

45. Evilio Hernandez

46. Jogly Garcia

47. Joe Lampe

48. Justin Boyd

49. Nate Furman

50. Jose Pirela

51. Cade Smith

52. Davis Sharpe

53. Ross Carver

55. Jack Leftwich

55. Cooper Ingle

56. C J Kayfus

57. Dylan DeLucia

58. Yorman Gomez

59. Hunter Stanley

60. Steve Hajjar

Ross Dunn

61. Micah Pries

62. Alexfri Planez

63. Juan Benjamin

64. Christian Knapczyk

65. Maick Collado

66. Victor Izturis

67. Yerlin Luis

68. Luis Aparicio

69. Logun Clark

70. Emilio Tavares

71. Yaikel Mijares

72. Manuel Mejias

73. Reid Johnston

74. Nic Enright

75. Shawn Rapp

76. Magnus Ellerrts

77. Tomas Reyes

78. Alonzo Richardson

79. Trenton Denholm

80. Austin Aldeano

81. Guy Lipscomb

82. Korey Holland

83. Nick Mikolajchak

84. Andrew Miziasek

85. Randy LeBaut

86. Yeury Gervacio

87. Javier Santos

88. Geo Rivera Jr. 

89. Fran Alduey

90. Lexer Saduy

91. Tommy Hawke

Matt Etzel

92. Jacob Bresnahan

93. Connor Koxx

94. Melkis Hernandex

95. Victor Planchart

96. Rodney Boone

97. Yordys Valdes

98. Elvis Jerez

99. Matt Turner

100. Jake Miller

Thoughts For A Saturday: Ranking Wars, Bo--advanced baserunning class, Columbus Triangle, Ramirez being out means Clippers vs Rays

Ranking Wars

MLB Pipeline just dropped a new Guardians top 30 prospects.  Different people rank prospects differently but in what world is CJ Kayfus among the top 30 Guardians' prospects?  In what alternate universe does a 21 year old Jhonkensy Noel drop from 15th to 28th since the last ratings came out earlier this month even though his two best months of the season so far have been July and August?  Where Noel is rated below Jonathon Rodriguez?  Where 6rh round draft pick Alex Mooney is rated 21st even though he hasn't swung a bat (at the time) in the minors?    Where Andrew Walters, a guy whose upside is as a setup man, is ranked 18th before he even throws a pitch?   To make all this happen Cody Morris, Hunter Gaddis, Justin Boyd and Joe Lampe have disappeared off this list, as Nate Furman did earlier this year.  

To those people doing those MLB Pipeline rankings:  You realize announcers use these rankings all the time and even certain GMs quote those rankings as fact when they trade their best starting pitcher for a guy on the IL in AAA.  These ratings mean something.  It appears that if you have a large bonus or are drafted in a high round but there is no history of you as a professional you STILL get ranked highly.  Hey, I have no trouble with that, generally, but the Guardians 2023 draft is highly suspect and to rate   those draft picks ahead of guys like Rodriguea, Frias, Noel, Morris and Gaddis, and other...as my wife's grandmother use to say..."that ain't right...that ain't right".   Ranking level does not equal bonus amount, people.  It just doesn't.

Bo Naylor - Advanced baserunning class

So, I think it was Wednesday's game.  We were rallying and, with the infield in, Kwan hit a grounder to second, and the secondbaseman tagged out Naylor and stepped on first to double Kwan, ending the inning.  I think that if Naylor just dives back to first base it does two things: (1) creates enough confusion that they may not even get one out, let alone 2 or (2) slows the play down enough that the runner on 3rd scores before the double play is created.  As I am sure you all knnow the 1st baseman would have to, without stepping on 1st, tag out Naylor and then step on firsr to get Kwan.  Looking at the replay I don't think he had time to do both.   If he bends down to tag Naylor, Kwan would beat the tag of first base.  If he tags the bag he couldn't reach down fast enough to tag Naylor before the run scored.    He could have looked like a genius...but he ended up looking like a rookie in the headlights when he froze and made the fielder's job easy.  Rookies!?!?!?!?! Arrgh.

Columbus Triangle

What the heck is going on?  Given the success (albeit limited, in some cases) that some of our current Columbus pitchers have had in the majors, it is incredibly puzzling as to why these guys are struggling like AAAA players in their second time around in Columbus.    Hunter Gaddis, Jamex Karinchak, Peyton Battenfield, Tim Herrin and even Zach Plesac have not looked all that sharp this year.  These guys were supposed to provide above average (for the average ML team, that is) AAA depth for our pitching staff.   

Instead, these guys have all, to some degree, had their performance fall off the table this year in Columbus.  Is it something in the water in Columbus?  Is the pitching coaching in Columbus messed up?  Are these guys just pouting because they think they belong in the majors?   They should be dominating but they are not.  It is puzzling and infuriating as we need that depth so we don't have to use AAAA retreads with Michael Kelly and Daniel Norris, neither of whom SHOULD have a future in this organization.  

Well, I have come up with a plausible explanation.   The Clippers team is surrounding by a time warp creating what I have termed the Columbus triangle. Pitchers go into that triangle and one of two things in happening: (1) their careers crash and burn and they disappear from the majors forever or (2) they gointo the triangle and never come out, simply being replaced by dopplegangers who can't pitch or (3) they go into the triangle and come out as 45-year old versions of themselves where all their stuff has naturally age-degraded although their journaey through the space-time continuum has made their external bodies appear the same age.

In any case, call the medics, call the astrophysicists, call the Bermuda Triangle or Alaska Triangle experts, call somebody and let's get to figuring out how we can reverse this.

These guys are important and that is why they are considered assets.  They actually should be positive contributors to our ML team and not just look like AAAA guys who you can get on the waiver wire any day of the week.

Ramirez out, today's game is Columbus vs Tampa

In sort of the cherry on the whipped cream on the hot fudge sauce on the ice cream sundae, Jose begins serving his (now) 2 game suspension today.  That pretty much nails this moment as the completion of the 2023 Columbus Clippers being converted to the 2023 Cleveland Guardians.  We will see today if a AAA team can, in fact, beat a WS contender.   

BTW, here is hoping that MLB looks at Tim Anderson's suspension and says "Oops, sorry. After relooking at the video, we have decided that you are a punk a--, b----- and we have raised your suspension to 7 games instead of our original underestimate of 6 games.  And, if you are wondering, yes, the game we took off Ramirez's suspension we added it to yours. How do you like that, sucka?"  Then I woke up from the best dream I have had recently.  

When you have a player suspended does that mean you have to play one player short during that stretch?  It appears so as I don't think we added a player for Clase's suspension and it doesn't look like we have added one to today's active roster.