Last year I predicted that the Guardians would go 61-101. They obviously did much better. However, aside from the rainbow and unicorn fans, no one could have really predicted a 92-69 season. In fact, a lot of writers predicted the Guardians would have a losing season.
This year there are so many variables I am going to do things a little differently. I have a record in mind that I consider the most likely outcome. It is based on some things going bad and some things going right. I am also predicting a record if a number of crucial things all go wrong and a record if most of those crucial things go right. I will then go through, position by position, what are the scenarios that could contribute to the best, worst and most likely records. None of these position situations will lead, by itself, to the best, worst or most likely record. They are all just contributing factors.
Most Likely Record: 84-78 (worst case 70-92, best case 92-70)
CATCHER
Best Case: Naylor and Hedges stay healthy all year and Naylor significantly improves his offense compared to 2024 and it helps them reach the best case scenario.
Most likely case: Combined, they miss 50 games during the year due to injury, meaning Dom Nunez is on the roster for 25 games which feeds into them having the likely record predicted above.
Worst case: Naylor misses 80 games due to injury and Hedges misses 20 games with it being likely that Nunez starts 35-40 games and it feeds into the whole thing falling apart where the total breakdown leads to the worst case scenario.
FIRST BASE/DH
Best case: Manzardo becomes a star, Santana maintains at a level that allows him to be functional, at least. In addition, Noel and Jones fill in at 1B and DH, as needed, in case of injuries.
Most likely case: Manzardo is functional, Santana starts to show his age but holds it together for most of the season and Noel and Jones contribute as above.
Worst case: Manzardo is a little below average @ DH, Santana shows his age and the Guardians keep going to the 2 of them instead of pivoting to Noel and Jones.
SECOND BASE
Best case: Arias plays great defense and hits enough and does enough right things to hold the job this year and hit 12-15 HRs w/o sabotaging the offense too much.
Most likely case: Second base is a revolving door with us trying a bunch of guys until we settle on one by the beginning of July and that player produces enough to allow us to be buyers at the deadline.
Worst case: Arias struggles and the go with him until June, then pivot to Brito who still isn't ready with both of them doing so bad we lose games that we should win. This position does nothing to stop us from having a mediocre record and becoming sellers at the deadline and start circling the wagons for 2026
SHORTSTOP
Best case: Rocchio continues to show offensively what he showed in the playoffs and his defense becomes gold-glove caliber
Most likely case: Rocchio oes his job and holds down the position all year and becomes a slightly above average offensively. His defense is above average.
Worst case: Rocchio performs like last season with fewer brain farts than last year but still improving enough to move the needle on this team.
THIRD BASE
Best case: Ramirez repeats his 2024 season numbers and actually becomes a little more selective at the plate as the people hitting behind him provide him better protection than even Naylor did last year.
Most likely case: Ramirez presses somewhat, knowing he has little protection in the lineup. This causes his walk rate to drop and for him to become a 30 RH, 30 SB guy
Worst case: Ramirez presses A LOT and his production does down to 25 HR, 35 SB and his walk rate plummets as compared to previous years and he chases at a high rate that at any point in his career. While he doesn't kill the team he doesn't help offset other problem areas.
LEFT FIELD
Best case: Kwan starts off hot like last year, avoids injury and has his best season yet. stealing less bases because Ramirez is hitting second.
Most likely case: Kwan repeats his overall numbers from 2024 but produces at a more even rate through the year.
Worst case: Kwan repe: ats his injury profile from 2024 and we struggle finding a leadoff hitter when he is out. Overall his performance is very good but not enough to move the needle in a positive direction or offset deficits elsewhere
CENTER FIELD
Best case: Thomas plays CF and hits 3rd most of the season and returns to his 2023 form. We don't trade him at the deadline because we are in the thick of the playoff races.
Most likely case: The Guardians hedge their bets and trade Thomas at the deadline because they feel they can backfill his production which fall, relatively evenly, back to his 2024 numbers.
Worst case: Thomas' production falls off and we are forced to continue playing him until, by July, we reverst to CF by committee.
RIGHT FIELD
Best case; Jones and Noel split RF with each getting time at DH and at first base. They combine for 40 HRs
Most likely case: Noel struggles a bit with chase and Jones only partly returns to 2023 form, meaning the 2 of them are good only for 25-30 HRs while splitting RF.
Worst case: We DFA Jones after it becomes apparent his 2024 season was closer to what he can produce. Brennan and Noel share RF with the same mediocre production they both showed in 2024.
STARTING ROTATION
Best case: Williams and Bibee have great seasons, Ortiz, Lively and Allen hold their own and give us a lot of innings to save the bullpen. Bieber comes back strong replacing the weakest starter in mid-June and Means does the same by August 1st.
Most likely case: Bibee and Williams are solid, Lively gives us innings but the #4/5 positions are problematic and cause us to overuse the bullpen.
Worst case: One of Bibee or Williams misses extensive time, Lively fizzles by the all-star break and Ortiz and Allen are out of the rotations by the Middle of May. The starters put so much pressure on the bullpen because they can't give us innings that we become sellers at the deadline and trade both Bieber and Means.
BULLPEN
Best case: Last year's star relievers give us 90% of the success they had last year and Walters, Stephan, Sabrowski, Junis and Seward give us solid production, filling in where needed along with other prospects like Cantillo, Webb and Enright. The bullpen is almost as good as last year with a little loss at the top but better production at the bottom of the pen.
Most likely case: Some of the top guys regress, some of the bottom guys don't perform but we still have a top 10 bullpen in baseball.
Worst case: Two of our top 4 relievers go down with injuries from overuse last year, Sewald struggles and the young guys produce enough to keep the bullpen's head above water but we are only a top 15 bullpen in baseball.
BENCH/CALLUPS
Best case: Brito hits the ground running, DeLauter produces in Aug/September, Bazzana puts himself in the conversation for a September callup similar with him and DeLauter putting themselves in position to emulate Evan Carter for Texas a couple of years ago and helps us in the playoffs. Martinez and Brennan provide needed, quality help when called upon.
Most likely case: DeLauter doesn't play, Bazzana doesn't get a callup and we get average production from Martinez and Brennan when called up. Brito provides a splash when he is called up but comes back to ML average offensively for a second baseman by the end of the season.
Worst case: Like last year, we get little help from the minors except for veteran guys who played here last year and their production doesn't move the needle on the team's success.
SUMMARY
There you have it. As said above, a lot of things have to come togehter for the Guardians to compete. The question people need to be asking themselves is whether what we saw from Detroit and Kansas City was a harbinger of them becoming division champions or whether they will come back to earth in 2025. Also, does Minnesota come back with a vengeance this year after the disappointing end in 2024 and can that be enough to take the division with the other 3 contenders self-destructing just enough that the AL Central doesn't get a wild card this time around.
I don't think the Guardians go to the playoffs unless they win the division and their winning the division will have to come from them hitting on a lot of best case scenarios while their AL Central opponents hit the middle ground of their predicted success.
For those fans that like to dream big, if we can produce offensively like we did in the first half of the season and then get DeLauter, Brito and Bazzana producing in the last 2 months and Bieber and Means pitch well this year and our bullpen looks as solid as last year, albeit with some different guys this time around, I think we could go to and maybe sneak a 1954 Giants-like WS title run in on the Dodgers. How fitting would that be for the Guardians to win the title that everyone thought they would win in 1954, just 71 years later.
One final note: For the Guardians to attain the worst case scenario record, they would have to be big sellers at the deadline, potentially off-loading Thomas, Junis, Hedges, Santana, Sewald and even Bieber and Means if they fall out of the race or on the distant edges of the WC race by the all-star break.
