Thoughts for September 16th

 MINOR LEAGUES

Akron has finished their season.  Here are my thoughts on several position players who started in Lake County or were injured during the season but finished the season in Akron:

• Ralph Velazquez finished the season in Akron and finished with an OPS of .994.  I see him as a top 100 prospect in baseball this winter on at least some ranking websites
• Wuilfredo Antunez hit well at both Lake County and Akron, maintaining his OPS and SB rate with a drop in power and walk rate after the promotion.  The Guardians will have an interesting choice deciding on whether he will be placed on the 40 man this winter in order to protect him from the Rule 5.
• Angel Genao was hampered by injury but remains a top prospect in the Guardians' system.  He finished the year strong, pushing his BA to .260 with concomitant improvement in his SLG, OBP and, of course, his OPS. 
• Jorge Burgos is an under-the-radar prospect who stays interesting.  He ended the season injured but put up good numbers leading to 73 RBI and 14 HRs in only 355 ABs.  
• Jacob Cozart looked like a AAAA catcher in his time in Lake County but hit a little better when promoted to Akron.  I still think he profiles as a ML backup, something that that you don't want to see in a 2nd round catcher.  BTW, Antonneti said that they really liked Khal Stephen in the 2024 draft but just couldn't draft him.  Well, Cozart was drafted BEFORE Stephen in the 2nd round, meaning they liked Cozart better than Stephen. 
• Alfonsin Rosario struggled upon his promotion to Akron but finished with 5 HRs and 6 2B in 128 ABs after a good season in Lake County. 

I will have a complete article on Akron after the baseball season is complete but suffice it to say that there is a lot of talent on the current roster and it will be interesting to see how many of these guys are rostered by the Guardians this winter to protect them from the Rule 5..

Lynchburg goes for the Carolina League championship tonight with Joey Oakie on the mound.  Oakie finished strong in the ACL and carried that momentum to Lynchburg where he has just been dominating.  I think it likely will help him that he has not faced Columbia in the past.  If he is on, the Hillcats have a good chance of winning the league title.  Even if they lose tonight they still can win tomorrow but it would be great for Oakie if they could win tonight with him on the mound.

Columbus finishes their season this week and it would have been great to see Valezquez get a cup of coffee with the Clippers or DeLauter get back for a few games. But I guess that is not to be unless there is an injury that requires a replacement.  Still, if we could get a promotion for a guy like Austin Peterson it would decrease a little suspense regarding who is getting promoted this off-season.

Lake County ended their season by getting swept in the playoffs but defeating Great Lakes (Dodgers) head-to-head in the last series to make the playoffs was, by far, better than any first round win in the playoffs, especially since the Dodgers held off promoting their best players until after their season was done, likely with the goal of keeping the roster strong just to make the playoffs.  If you look back, the Guardians DID promote some of their better players at Lake County to Akron in August, meaning they were actually more concerned with player development than winning a meaningless (unless a Cleveland farm team wins, of course, LOL) minor league championship.

GUARDIANS

At the beginning of the year I didn't think the Guardians had a chance to make the playoffs as they actually got weaker from last year, trading away Gimenez and Josh Naylor. I predicted that the most likely result, even factoring in the returning players and that Vogt was really a good manager, was an 84-78 record.  Given everything that has happened this season, the Guardians being 78-71 going into Detroit tonight is pretty remarkable.  

I promised about 23 weeks ago that I wouldn't scoreboard watch but I have already broken that promise.  So, resetting to tonight's game, I promise to just enjoy my favorite team, whatever happens,  and only peak, out of the corner of one eye, at the scoreboard.  Look, it isn't perfect, but it's the best I can do which, I guess, is the output of the Guardians playing meaningful games in the last half of Setptember.

Go Guards!

Thoughts for September 6th

 GUARDIANS

I love baseball and I love watching the Guardians play, win or lose.  In fact, the run this organization has had with Francona and then one year of Vogt as manager has started to ruin that enjoyment.  Now people can't accept this as their golden years and want that brass ring of a WS championship.  But I have had enough of that and want to enjoy what we have been given and not get greeedy. So, win or lose, I am going to get back to how I was in the 70s and 80s: thankful for every win and cheering on my heroes.  

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: Thoughts About The Season and My Prediction for the Guardians 2025 Season

That being said, at the beginning of the season I predicted the following about their record:

84-78 - Most likely result if some things went right and some things went wrong.

70-92 - If most things went wrong

92-70 - If almost everything went right.

Well, after today's game we stand at 70-70.

This means that EVERYTHING hasn't gone wrong but, as we know now, many things have not gone right (Santana, Bazzana, DeLauter, Clase, Ortiz, Naylor, Lively, Thomas) but some things have (Manzardo, Cecconi (to a small degree)), Williams, Allen, Schneeman), meaning the sum tells us that the pipe dream of 92-70 is no longer possible but the total meltdown of 70-92 hasn't happened either.

So, all that's left now is to determine how many wins the Guardians will end up with and whether it will be enough to sneak into the playoffs as the 3rd wildcard.  The path is there but it's the journey I will enjoy, not worrying about the finish line.  Go Guardians!

PROSPECTS

The prospect story has not yet been completely told for 2025 as there are still a couple of weeks left in the regular season, plus playoffs, plus Arizona Fall League but here are some guys I think are making their way up (or down) the prospect rankings since my post-deadline, post-draft list that I posted at the beginning of August:

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: Guardians Top 100+ Prospects - Post-Draft, Post-Deadline Mid-Season Edition

Joey Oakie

Hey, it's only two games, but I have witnessed this kid carving up two different teams including some top 2025 draftees.  Maybe this is just the classic flash-in-the-pan performance but when you see a 19-year old with a 96-100 mph fastball having this success just after a promotion for the first time to a full-season team, it hits different.  This may be the start of something huge for this kid and, man, what a two-game ride it has been, 9.2 ip, 1 hit, 5 BB and 22 Ks. He will be the starting pitcher for Lynchburg in the playoffs.  No way any of us had that on our bingo cards at the beginning of 2025!  Stay healthy, kid.  It looks like your future is bright.

Ralph Velasquez

This is a kid who has grown up before our eyes.  Las year the Guardians pushed him aggressively to Lynchburg as a 19 year old. He had some good moments and the promise was clearly there.  After a late season promotion to Lake County in 2024 he was aggressively pushed to there to start 2025.  As the season progressed we saw him gain in confidence and find his routine in the batter's box.  They promoted him to Akron and he has exploded since then with an approach at the plate that looks like it will stand the test of time.  It's less than 100 ABs but with an OPS of over 1.100 it looks like more than just a heater that will level out.  I think this kid appears on some top 100 lists this winter, and deservedly so, IMO.

Yorman Gomez

Small sample size notwithstanding, Gomez has looked impressive this year, especially after his promotion to AA.  He is not physically imposing but has, in my opinion, put himself on the 'map' of guys who might debut in 2026.  He is, for the most part, dominating the strike zone at AA with stuff that should play even better as he moves up the ladder and has better fielders behind him.

Travis Bazzana

Really, I have no idea how this is going to turn out.  But Bazzana is at AAA and has had some limited success recently.  Look, EVERY Guardians fan want Bazzana to suddenly turn into the 1-1 we drafted.  When you consider the success of guys drafted after him in 2024 you can see how I am impatient and have trepidation that he may be that rare flop at 1-1, something this organization can really not have.  We need Bazzana to be a KEY contributor in the Jose, Kwan, Williams, Bibee, Smith, Manzardo years.  

MINOR LEAGUE PLAYOFFS

While we still have some regular season minor league games left, for the Guardians minor league teams the playoffs have been set. Our DSL and ACL teams did not make the playoffs,  Columbus and Akron aren't going to the playoffs and Lynchburg and Lake County are.

Lynchburg, if the revamped roster can gel they have a chance to win their league and the Captains are on a heater right now and have solid pitching with a no-quit attitude on offense.  

So both these teams can 'win it all' if things break their way.

One final note on the minor league playoffs:  It was especially satisfying that Lake County won their playoff spot head to head with a Great Lakes team (Dodgers) that had great players, some of whom Cleveland fans begged for in prospects-for-Kwan trade proposals that I argued against.  Looking at how DePaula and Hope played in this series and how they their seasons have gone, I am re-assured that trading Kwan for one of them plus other, lesser pieces, would have been a huge mistake.