DFAing Haase and other topics

It's past midnight and Dec. 30th and Francisco Lindor is still a Cleveland Indian.  On a northern Ohio sports weekend like we just had, any non-negative news is good news!

A blip on the bad weekend news is that the Indians DFA'd Eric Haase to make room for Cesar Hernandez.   I am sure that there is an analytics guy or team of analytics guys somewhere who are sure this was the best move the Indians could have made.  Not sure if Haase is out of options but, even if he is, this is still not a good move.

•  We have 9 outfielders on our roster.   We may keep 4 or 5.  One, Greg Allen, has become about 4th on the list of CFers, utility outfielders.
•  We have 3 utility infielders.   We probably will keep 1 and be able to send one other to AAA.
•  We have 12 or 15 relievers, depending on how you count Plutko and whether you count Hentges and Mejia of which two of them, Maton and Hoyt, appear to be AAAA lifers.  And that's without the typical January and February minor league free agent reliever signings.

However, at this point, we had only 3 catchers on the roster and exactly zero catching prospects in our system above low class A.   That is ZERO.   

Remember that even if we made a deal with Haase to keep him if he clears waivers he would still need to clear waivers for us to keep him.  Not likely with the perennial state of catching in baseball but I am sure those analytics guys are somewhere smiling, saying it doesn't matter if we don't keep Haase because he is not above replacement level.  I don't buy that because I value prospects and guys brought up in an organization more than the AAAA flavor of the month.  

There is no way that Haase was the fluffiest player on the 40 man, not by a long shot.   But he did have one distinction.   On the roster with 9 outfielders and 15 potential relievers, and 3 utility infielders, Haase was the only guy on the roster who was clearly the "next man up" at his position going into spring training. Doesn't matter that his position was backup to the backup catcher,

there had to be a better guy to DFA.  Had to be.  The roster breakdown shows this.

But, somewhere, analytics guys are giving each other high 5s while watching reruns of Big Bang Theory.   Remember, the word 'analytics' starts with "anal".   Never has that been more clear than this off-season, at least for the Indians in the makeup of the bottom of their 40-man roster.

Time for a football interlude

OK, this is an Indians blog but once in a while we digress into other topics.   Today it is Ohio State football.

Three years ago Ohio State lost to Clemson 31-0.   Ohio State never adjusted to what Clemson was doing against them.   Basically, they could never get anything going.

But this is not that coaching staff.   Unlike essentially every year under Urban Meyer, this coaching staff has made in-game adjustments that have turned the tide in games that we close early.   I love what Urban Meyer did at Ohio State but, in my opinion, the man had an ego that hurt him in these situations.  Apparently Ryan Day's staff doesn't suffer from that from that issue.

That being said, here is what I think needs to happen in this game.   Note that these comments are just from a nervous fan who is just talking to himself, in public, prior to this game.   I am not a football expert by any means.   But, that notwithstanding, here goes:

1. Ohio State needs to move Chase Young around more than it has this year.   Essentially every play.   They have to give Clemson's offense different looks with Young.   He will always have a target on his chest but if the Buckeyes create enough confusion he should get a sack or two and other guys should be free for more sacks.

2. The Buckeyes have to trust their corners in man coverage and blitz more from the safety spot.  Yes this is risky but we have to make Trevor Lawrence uncomfortable.   His recent success is due to his comfort that he is going to have time and not get hit or hurried.

3. We need to adjust our offense to what we have.   We don't want Fields to have to make intricate reads against disguised defenses and hold the ball for a long time as it increases the chance he will get hit and that he will make a bad read or force something.   One way to avoid that is a more Baker Mayfield-like passing game.  Quick throws to slanting receivers and backs isolated against linebackers. There is some question about whether the Buckeye receivers can gain separation from the Clemson cornerbacks.   If we establish the quick passing game that could allow us to gain that separation late in the first half and, occasionally, in the second half.  As funny as it sounds, a quick passing game should open up the run for Fields, too.   If everyone is keyed on the pass he should get a couple of steps before the defense readjusts.

4. If what I think about the coaching staff is accurate we just need to make sure that the game is close at halftime.  I think our coaching staff can adjust better than any coaching staff in the country and I am betting on them to win the second half pretty substantially.

If all these come to pass here is my prediction:

Halftime score: Clemson 21 Ohio State 17

Second half scoring:  Ohio State 21 Clemson 13

Final score: Ohio State 38 Clemson 34

Impact of potential trades

Looking at it logically, I don't see the Indians trading Lindor or Clevinger.  However, if they did trade one of them, let's look at the impact:

The Indians will be competing against the Twins and White Sox for the division this year and maybe next.   Their 'window' is still open.   To keep that window open they, minimally need to keep the lineup and rotation they have now.  Minimally.  Their lineup is not that strong.   Their rotation is not that strong.   Their bullpen is not that certain in terms of performance.  So, even with ALL of the players they have now, they will need some breaks to even make it to the playoffs.

We need to improve to make the playoffs unless a miracle happens.  Without going into details, it doesn't appear any team will trade us players that will allow us to replace Lindor's production while making our team better long term.   For example, a trade to the Dodgers of both of these guys together would have to net Lux, May, Verdugo and Seager to make it worthwhile.  Otherwise, Otherwise, we might as well do a full rebuild.

From what I have seen there isn't a team who has or would be willing to trade as much of their immediate future to help us win this year and be set to keep this window open for another 4-5 years.

40 man roster fluff

As we are in the season of giving (we gave away Corey Kluber) we have to consider the possibility of getting multiple players back in trades, all or most of whom would have to be placed on the 40 man roster.   So let's take a look:

Pitchers

We have 21 pitchers on the roster.  20-22 seems to be common with teams so the number seems right)  Here are the breakdowns:

Major league starters: 7 (Carrasco, Clevinger, Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Plutko, Rodriguez)
Minor league starters: 4  (McKenzie, Moss (L), Allen (L), Hentges(L))
Major league relievers: 9 (Clase, Hand (L), Cimber, Karinchak, Hoyt, Maton, Perez (L), Wittgren, Wood)
Minor league relievers: 1 (Mejia)

Analysis: We are a little heavy on major league right-handed relievers.   At this point I consider Maton just a placeholder and would think the same thing about Hoyt if we hadn't brought him back once this off-season.  If we add a quality reliever or two then I think Hoyt and Wood are at risk.   Of course, this analysis is made very cloudy when you consider that one of the least likely guys to get cut, Nick Goody, has already been cut.  So, really, who knows what these analytics and financial people think as far as who is most expendable.  As far as starters I think we have exactly the right numbers (majors and minors combined) with the possibility of one of the lefties making the new 26-man roster as a long reliever.  Mejia is a guy who can stay on the roster now but, if he stinks in the minors and a roster spot is necessary during the year for a guy like Nick Sandlin, then removing Mejia becomes an easy decision.

Catchers: 3 (Haase, Perez, Leon)

Analysis:  This is where you want to be with three catchers who can play in the majors, the least of the three being an older prospect who still has some upside.   You carry two catchers and keep Haase at AAA in case of injury.

Infielders: 8: This includes Hernandez who isn't rostered yet.  

Firstbasemen: 2 (Santana, Bradley)
Starting infielders: 3 (Lindor, Ramirez, Hernandez)
Utility infielders: 3 (Arroyo, Velazquez and Chang)

Analysis: The starting infielders are solid and Bradley is a good prospect to be stashed at AAA in case of emergency.   Bauers is the emergency backup at first base, too, so we are good there.   Where we are way heavy is utility infielder.   Only one of these 3 should make the team.   My guess is that this would be Arroyo with Velazquez only being on the roster as protection in case Arroyo is not ready by opening day.    Chang is the AAA backup.   Perfect.

Outfielders:  9

Analysis:  We all know this is a disaster.  Even if you count Reyes as the DH and Bauers as the utility firstbaseman/corner outfielder you still have 7 outfielders.    If you count on Mercado in CF and the two headed corner outfielder (Luplow/Naquin) you still have 4 outfielders.   As Deshields is the vetran he makes the team.  That leaves Zimmer, Johnson and Allen.   Assuming Zimmer starts the year in the minors to continue his rehab, there is no way that Allen or Johnson make this team out of spring training.  If we get a quality corner outfielder somehow then we are looking at losing Bauers or Deshields or Naquin.   None of this is a problem for me as, except for Mercado, Luplow and Johnson (only because his development ceiling is still unclear), I don't really see Zimmer, Naquin, Allen, De Shields and Bauers having any more than replacement level value.


Overall summary:  We have replacement level players or prospects with minor league options in the major league bullpen, at utility infielder and in the outfield.  Just the major league replacement level players on the current 40 man roster represent at least 1/4 of that roster!  Lots of depth but not a lot of quality beyond the starters.    This makes 2020 a year in which we could easily fall way behind early like we did in 2019 and not have enough steam to catch up at the end, just like in 2019.  

Lindor trade headliners - let's take a look

Let's start off by saying this:

Any team that trades for Francisco Lindor can:

a. hold on to him and get two years of one of the best players in the game AND a draft choice when he walks as he will be the easiest qualifying offer decision in the history of baseball.

or

b. flip him at some point between now and July 31st of 2021 to get value back for him that will probably be worth more than that draft choice.

So, with that backdrop, let's look at some of the rumored headliners in the rumored deals to get Lindor.  These are all rumors but they all make sense at some level:

Reds - Nick Senzel - His numbers, albeit tempered by injury, last year were not great.   He has almost one year of service time and is 24 years old.   Given his production and the fact that he is not a stellar or even average defender as an infielder, there would have to be more coming back, at least another top 10 prospect,  The Reds have two pitching prospects in Tony Santillan and Vladimir Gutierrez, both of whom sucked this year.    In my opinion it would take one or both of them and Senzel to get this deal done as Senzel, himself, doesn't look like enough.    Hey, I know Reds' fans will laugh at this but when you have your #4 prospect being a pitcher with an ERA of over 6 in AAA, it is not a strong farm system.   To get Santillan and Gutierrez to reach their potential it will take a big gamble and a lot of work by the Indians.   But that is what a prospect trade is, right?  The team trading the veteran is trading for the future and, to get good return, has to generally take some risk.   Taking Senzel, Santillan and Gutierrez is taking risk, the latter two being significant risk, IMHO.

Mets - I don't put much stock in Mets rumors but the guy the Indians apparently want to headline the deal is Jeff McNeil, who played LF, RF, 2B and 3B last year in his first full season with the Mets and made the NL all-star team.   McNeil is a nice player but c'mon.  He was a 12th round pick out of Long Beach St..   In 2018 he had his best minor league season, playing at AA as a 26 year old.   He will begin 2020 as a 28 year old.    He set career highs last year in runs, doubles and HRs while playing his first full season in the majors.   Yes, that is career highs counting his college and minor league teams.  So, all-star team aside, there is a decent chance that his power numbers are an aberration.  Without that, looking at his poor walk rate, and he is no better than a combination of Luplow and whatever LH outfielder you want to plug in.  Yeah, I ask for McNeil in any trade for Lindor but he is not the headliner.  Maybe a co-headliner with the other guy being Andres Gimenez (AA SS) if we get Stephen Villines (RP AAA), too.

Dodgers - Gavin Lux - This is the first headliner who is a true headliner.   Look, the Dodgers are trying to get to the WS and win it.   Two years of Lindor gets that done.    The Indians get Lux, Joc Pederson and  relief prospect Josh Sborz and throw the recently acquired DeShields back to the Dodgers.  While I would love Lux and May, I don't think that is ever going to happen.   So we need Lux and whoever else is going to help this team.   I think Pederson and Sborz have that chance.

Yankees - Miguel Andujar - While I like this guy my trade is a straight up one-4-one with the Indians trading Lindor and getting back Gleyber Torres.   Sorry, Yankees, we got to get a SS back who can play.   Torres is very good but Lindor is Lindor.   You guys have deep pockets.   Take Lindor and sign him to a long term contract.    Torres ain't taking you to the promised land by himself.   Lindor can.

Time for some serrious discussion

First,

I applaud Cleveland's management and player development staffs.   They have done more with less and produced winning baseball in Cleveland for an extended period of time.   In the dark ages of Cleveland baseball that I remember clearly, the management and player development staffs had the same opportunity to produce winning teams and didn't.   Anyone who says that this is not true really doesn't remember those times.

While I have criticized the management teams for moves and non-moves in the past, the truth is that I nor any of the bloggers out there really understand the constraints that are placed on Cleveland's management team.    

With that acknowledgement here are the realities as I see them:

•  It now is certain to me that ownership is screwing management.  That shouldn't come as a surprise as the fans have screwed ownership by not showing up in great enough numbers and, as we all know, dung flows downhill.  So fans, you get what you failed to pay for every time a salary dump occurs.
•  The key to me on the future of this franchise is NOT whether they trade Francisco Lindor but WHAT they get back for him when he is traded.  If we are scratching our head about the return it likely means that we took the best offer even if it was substandard to what Lindor is worth.  This will be a bad signal for the future of winning baseball in Cleveland.   Not that trading your stars is wrong on a small market team but trading them for too little value means you are screwing your franchise both short- and long-term.  

You see, if you trade your star players you are in rebuilding mode and in rebuilding mode you have to get back young talent equal to or better than the ML talent you are trading away.

Those are the simple truths.   We failed to trade Kluber and Bauer last winter because we couldn't get enough for them.   That standard is set.   By those rules we should get a lot for Lindor and, if we don't, it means the rules have changed and saving money has become the main goal of the Cleveland Indians.   Not rebuilding, not rebuilding and trying to win at the same time nor trying to win now.  

Just saving money.   

A couple of final thoughts:

•  If you are trying to rebuild you shouldn't be trading international slot money or competitive balance draft picks, right?   The Indians did both of those things last winter. 
•  If you are rebuilding every trade should involve trading away veterans to get quality prospects back, right?  You shouldn't be taking salary dumps in return for your better players.  
•  If you are trying to win now you should take some of the Kluber savings and sign a decent secondbaseman or thirdbaseman AND you shouldn't trade Lindor unless you get a top prospect back.
•  Regarding a Lindor trade, the minimum I accept for Lindor is Gavin Lux, Joc Pederson and a low minors quality pitching prospect.  I would even throw in one of our 9 outfielders into the mix to get that done.   You have to get a young middle infielder back for Lindor as we don't really have any in the minors who will help anywhere in the future.  We are still taking the gamble that Lux will not be a defensive liability or a Kipnis-like player.   In a trade for Lindor we can't get a rookie Kipnis back.   So we are taking the gamble that Lux reaches his expectation.   Other teams are only taking the risk that Lindor might get hurt.

So stay tuned Cleveland fans.   What happens between now and spring training will determine whether ownership is taking us back to the dark ages of Cleveland baseball.   If they do, we only have ourselves to blame because we, as fans, greased the skids by not showing up to games.

Levity moment

One report quipped that our new reliever’s name is pronounced “Class A”.   Priceless!

Kluber trade analysis

Kluber for Texas’ #30 prospect ands .242 hitting outfielder. in DeShieldswho is no better than what we have now!?!?!  This is a salary dump.  I can tell where the Lindor trade is going:  No Lux and we get May and they dump Peterson on us.

Winter meetings, the new rules and some non-baseball stuff

The winter meetings have started and here are some thoughts:

1. I hate the new roster rules.   While I am sure minor baseball players would love to make money and have a long career in the majors, a lot of these kids started off by just wanting to make it to the majors.    September is a great chance to get your feet wet in the majors and, for a good number of players, it may represent the only time they play in the majors.   Major league teams also occasionally give promotions to career minor leaguers who have been good organizational soldiers but have not gotten to spend much, if any, time in the big leagues.  The new rule changes all that.    The Indians signed catcher Beau Taylor to a minor league deal last week.   His first exposure to the majors was as a September callup after 8 years in the minors.   He was 28 years old.   He would likely not have gotten called up that year had the current rules been in effect.  This rule sucks.   It saves teams money, that is all.    It kills the little guy in this business who may never be talented enough to stick in the majors but at least deserves that cup of coffee.

2. Have I mentioned that the Indians should sign Lindor to a 10 year deal that he can opt out of after 4 years?  His salaries would be:

2020 - $18 million
2021 - $20 million
2022 - $22 million
2023 - $25 million (opt out if he wants to after this season)
2024 - $28 million
2025 - $29 million
2026 - $30 million
2027 - $30 million
2028 - $30 million
2029 - $30 million
2030 - $30 million (club option or $1 million buyout)
2031 - $30 million (club option or $1 million buyout)

That averages out to $26.4 million a year guaranteed.  We don't do a non-trade clause and the contract, including club options, follows him if we do trade him.

3. This will be the most interesting Rule 5 draft in years, including for the Indians.   You heard it here first.

4. Moving to football, the playoff committee got it right.   If Justin Fields was in perfect health then I think Ohio State deserved the #1 seed.   But he isn't and so there are, therefore, questions about the competitiveness of the Buckeyes against the best competition.    While we would all like to play the weakest competition until the finals in any sport we are involved in, if Ohio State deserves the national championship, going through Clemson and the LSU-Oklahoma winner would certainly prove that.

5. Ohio State Men's Basketball - I have seen them play almost every game this year and, frankly, I am amazed.  They are so much better than the sum of their parts and, frankly, look like they are getting better and better every week.   Yeah, the stars aligned against North Carolina and Penn State but they DEMOLISHED those two teams when they weren't supposed to.   Aside from getting cocky, bored, or just losing motivation, if their goal is and they are dedicated to making it to the final 4, for the first time in my life I can say that is a very likely outcome.

4. Ohio State Women's Basketball - They are not hitting on all cylinders yet but their victory over Louisville shows that the talent is there.   You just don't beat a highly ranked team like that if you don't have talent.

Post 40 man roster analysis

First, if anyone is reading this raise your hand.

OK.  Let's continue.

The obvious Indians prospects to be added to the 40 man roster were added.  I haven't found an analysis and don't have time to do one but let's postulate that the Indians were not the worst or not the best at protecting prospects from the Rule 5.  

The Indians left a lot of dead weight on their 40-man roster.   I used to get bent out of shape about this but many times those guys are just placeholders in case of a free agent signing or a trade where more guys come back then go out.   So, this is a great wait and see time.

Looking at the Nick Goody DFA, you likely have to disconnect the dead weight from what happened to Goody.   Letting Goody go meant that keeping him as a placeholder didn't make sense to the Indians and, rather, was something else.   We will see what his DFA meant as time goes on.

I have to be honest, the prospects who DIDN'T get protected are not that great of prospects.   The best of the bunch, Ka'ai Tom, is, at this point, a one year wonder.   The rest of the guys are either too early in their career or are not high draft picks or guys with big tools.   I can't be too mad at the Indians as they generally know what they are doing in these situations.

That DOES NOT mean the unprotected guys will still be with the Indians after the Rule 5 draft.   Anyone who says they really can predict who will be picked in the Rule 5 is likely blowing smoke up your butt.   No one really knows who will be drafted.   If someone asked me to guess, I guess the Indians will lose 1 player in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft and there will be at least one surprise loss in the AAA phase.   That surprise, of course, would be that whoever we lost was not able to be protected on the 38-man Columbus reserve list.

I will end this post by talking about Mark Mathias.   Very interesting trade as one would guess the Indians suspected they would lose him in the Rule 5 and so got a rookie league catching prospect as a consolation prize instead of just the $100,000 if some team drafted Mathias.   The reason it is interesting is this sort of trade is not normal in my experience at this time of year. My only thought here is that the Brewers told the Indians they were going to draft Mathias but that it would be to the Indians advantage to trade him now as compared to maybe getting only cash if Mathias was drafted.   Given that I rated Mathias and Tom roughly the same in terms of susceptibility to being drafted, it will be interesting to see if Tom is drafted.

Time will tell and we should get a much better look about the time spring training starts.

It's 40 man roster AND AAA Reserve list day. What do we do?

OK, let's do this quickly.  

.Here is our goal today: create a roster that has 39 players on it.   That way we have one player spot open if we want to dip our toe into the Rule 5 ML draft coming up next month

Let's talk about the prospects we want to protect

Daniel Johnson - Definitely will protect

Triston McKenzie - Definitely protect.   This is ESPECIALLY because he was injured all last year.   Being injured would allow a team to stash him probably for the whole year as he 'recovered'.  

Scott Moss -  Definitely protect.   He has potential and is ML ready and cheap in case we need a starter this coming year.   So, he is good for the present AND the future.  

Oscar Gonzalez - Tough call - So, you have a 21 year old Latin outfielder who had a great year at Lynchburg.   Do you protect him?  The last time the Indians were in this situation, 2016, they did not protect that guy, who was Anthony Santander.   It took a while because Santander was injured and missed almost all of 2017 which played into Baltimore's hand as they stashed him on the DL almost all year and activated him in September when the rosters expanded.  They then carried him over the winter and kept him on the 25 man roster in 2018 until he acquired the appropriate ML time that allowed the Orioles to send him to the minors without exposing him to waivers or returning him to the Indians.  In 2019 Santander hit 20 HRs in 380 ABs for the Orioles while hitting .261.   It did take 3 years before Santander was even a functional MLer, not even a full-time starter yet.   If the Indians protect him and he has a hiccup in his development they might burn all their options on him before he makes it to the majors.  

Ka'ai Tom - Tough call - Here is a guy who was mediocre most of his professional career and broke out last year.   He is a little guy and, to me, does not stand out compared to all the other outfielders we have on the ML roster.   This is a player development issue for the Indians.   Does Tom project to be significantly better than anyone currently on our ML outfield roster and, if he does, will he get here quickly and can we live without an outfielder currently on the roster until Tom is ready?

Shoa-Ching Chiang - Don't protect - Unless a team thinks they can make him into a reliever I don't see him having the stuff or peripherals to be taken by another team.  There is no upside to him, just present, albeit limited value.

Felix Fermin - Don't protect - His upside is limited and he is too far from the majors.

Dalbert Siri - Tough call - Only protect if we have dead wood on our ML pitching roster and we think Siri has more potential than those guys.

Argenis Angulo - Don't protect.   I just don't see the present stuff in him that would get him selected.

Cam Hill -  Tough call - See Siri above for situation in which he would be protected.

Juan Hillman - Tough call - His performance has been mediocre but he is young and has upside.   I could easily see a team taking him and stashing him at the end of their bullpen until he acquires his 90 days of ML service that would allow the drafting team to keep him and send him to the minors. 

Luis Oviedo - Tough call.   Like Mejia last year he has intriguing enough stuff that some team might think they could use him as a reliever to get him his 90 day service time.  Still, he is a long way off as he had a mediocre season at Lake County 

OK, so we need to find room for 3 players (Johnson, McKenzie and Moss) and explore the available options to remove dead wood from the roster to add other players (Gonzalez, Tom, Siri and Hill)

So, here we go.   Out current 40 man roster stands at 38.   So we already have the spot for one prospect.   Let's look at the rest of the roster and see who we can dump:

Pitchers on the bubble: Maton, Hoyt, Mejia, Wood.  I think Hentges and Rodriguez are safe as are all the other 14 pitchers currently on the 40 man roster

Catchers - I think all three of Haase, Plawicki and Perez are safe as I think Haase has one option left.

Infielders on the bubble: Arroyo, Freeman, Valazquez and Chang.   I think you keep only 3 of these guys and maybe 2.   If it is 2 you keep Chang and Freeman.  If it is 3 you add Arroyo.

Outfielders on the bubble:  Greg Allen 

Here is what I think we should do:

Maton - get rid of him and add Moss to the roster

Hoyt - Get rid of him and add Hillman to the roster

Allen - get rid of him and add Johnson to the roster

Wood - get rid of him and add Gonzalez to the roster

Mejia - get rid of him and add Hill to the roster

Valazquez - Get rid of him and add Tom to the roster

I see Arroyo having more current and potential value compared to Siri.   

Now, when I say 'get rid of' I mean designate for assignment.  You might lose all those guys above if we DFA them but, frankly, I don't them being above replacement value.  Plus, we can stash them on the Columbus reserve list if they clear waivers.   In that case they would only be available for the Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft.   We also have room to stash Brady Aiken there as Fermin and Chiang.    It's not like we have a lot of guys who are eligible for the Rule 5 who we would NOT be able to protect on the Columbus roster.  

Here are the guys I think you protect at Columbus: Oviedo, Siri, Allen, Angulo, Hoyt, Mejia, Chiang, Fermin, Aiken, Jared Robinson, Tanner Tully, Michael Peoples, Moroff, Krauth, Mathias, Papi, Trenton Brooks, Connor Marabell, Gavin Collins, Mitch Longo, Francisco Perez, Kaminsky, Krieger, Lien Chen-Chu, Justin Garza, Henry Martinez.  Plus, if they clear waivers you can always add Hoyt, Maton Wood, and Valazquez back.

So that is 30 and represents most of the guys who I think might be Rule 5 targets.   That still gives the Indians room to add other guys who they think might be vulnerable to the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft where, if you lose a guy, you can't get him back.

Non-baseball, Browns post

I am a baseball fan first and foremost but as a Clevelander I follow the Browns and Cavs, too.

Tonight I am ashamed to say that I am a fan of the Cleveland Browns.

Indians top 50 prospects

As the season ends it is time to give my two cents as to who the top Indians prospects are.  For the first time I can remember this is a really hard assignment.   There is no prospect that I think, at this point, is without significant question marks, including consensus top overall prospect Nolan Jones.   Still, it's time to make my best guesses and let the prospects end up where they may.

1. Nolan Jones - Clearly he shows flashes but is not a finished product at all.  I would like to see him get to the majors by mid-2020 but it is more likely, unless things change, for him to get here for a cup of coffee in 2021.

2. Tyler Freeman - Here is a guy without significant upside as players are constructed in the majors today.   That is, he shows little power.   Still, he is the best hitter for average in the system and, frankly, it isn't even close.   Plus he is a middle infielder.   He has lots of double power now and hopefully that will turn into HR power as he matures.

3. George Valera - I have seen this guy several times in MV games this year and he has incredibly easy power.   It is really hard to put so green of a prospect this high in a ranking but this guy is special, in my opinion.   Without jinxing him here is a guy who is on the same development path and potential that Matt Whitney was when he suffered that catastrophic injury.  Whitney was on a path to be one  the top, if not THE top prospect in the game and I think Valera could get there in a few years

4. James Karinchak - This guy is just filthy.   His K/ip numbers are sick.   He has work to do on his command but when the Indian ML catchers get to know him and if he gets the command that he should have, this guy could be an incredible and durable late inning reliever.  It could happen as early as the start of 2020 and I think the Indians will give him that chance.

5. Triston McKenzie - Missed the whole 2019 season and has an injury history so it is really a stretch to even having him this highly ranked.   But we all hold out hope he will quickly get back to his 2018 form.

6. Daniel Johnson - Pretty much a present value placement by me.   He has good skills but they may or may not be more than 4th outfielder skills the way hitters are constructed in the major leagues these days.  Still, I like him as much as I do Naquin and Luplow and more than I like Greg Allen so that's why he is here.

7. Bobby Bradley - The fact that the Indians sent him home after the minor league season is interesting.   I think the Indians have him much lower ranked than I do and I doubt he makes their top 10.   This is especially interesting as Bradley in the next Jesus Aguilar and Yandy Diaz and look how giving up on those prospects has worked for the Tribe!  Bradley, in my opinion, needs to put his head down and just work.   He had a bad ML debut and seemed to take that with him to the minors after his demotion.  Long term the Indians need him so both he and the Indians better count on him and all involved need to work to get him to the majors and to the point where he can consistently show his power and plate discipline to be an above-average ML player.

8. Daniel Espino - He is guy with a big arm who could move quickly if he becomes a reliever.   However, I think he will be developed as a starter and, like Juan Hillman, may struggle a little to find his footing.   Plus I think he will be pushed to Lake County next year which may actually SLOW his development if he scuffles against more advanced hitters.

9. Scott Moss - As a lefty, here's another Cleveland pitcher like Beiber and Civale who may overachieve in the majors

10. Logan Allen - More upside than Moss but much more work to be done as his struggles in Columbus show.  Like Moss, he has the potential to really help the Tribe in 2020 if everything smooths out for him.

11. Bo Naylor - Great season by a young guy playing up at Lake County.   But the low BA still concerns me.  The triple double of 2B/3B and HR is exciting, though.

12. Ethan Hankins - Most others will have him higher than this but he hasn't shown performance yet.   2020 will be an important year for him as, likely, he will spend the whole season at Lake County.  If he starts in extended spring training or struggles at Lake County then he will be in the grind for a while.  If he thrives at LC and earns a promotion to Lynchburg, he may be on the past track, shooting up to the top 3 Indians prospects by next fall.

13. Ka'ai Tom - An unlikely guy on this list, he just hit and hit and hit and hit with some power and, did I mention, hit at AA and AAA.   He could get some PT in the majors in 2020, especially if we sign no outfielders (likely).

14. Ernie Clement - The Indians love this guy and he has done nothing in the minors this year to change that.  His placement on the AZL roster shows he has good status with the ML team.

15. Kyle Nelson - A lefty reliever with filthy stuff, Nelson could easily play in the majors in 2020.

16. Bryan Lavastida - This guy is a catcher who rakes and projects to get better at all phases of the game, pretty dramatically, in 2020.  He is a guy to keep an eye on.

17. Nick Sandlin - He would be up closer to Karinchak but his injury makes it questionable if he can even get to the majors in 2020 and if he requires surgery, it may not be until 2021, at best.

18. Luis Oviedo - Talk about a guy in the grind.   Oviedo had the prototypical hot/cold season which, to me, means that he is just slowly learning his craft against older competition.   Nothing to worry about but nothing to write home about, either.

19. Oscar Gonzalez - A guy with potential but a long way off unless something changes

20. Robert Broom - A college reliever with sick numbers in the Indians' minor league system.  Go figure!?!?!

21. Adam Scott - Another college starter who came on this season.   For these guys AAA seems to be the great separator.   We will see what he does next year.

22. Sam Hentges - Recorded the worst year of Indians' minor league pitcher this year.   He is in the grind.  Hentges is my surprise prospect for 2020 and all the Indians have to do with him to make it happen is one thing: Move him to the bullpen.   If they do that and he stays healthy and keeps his head on straight, he will be in Cleveland by the middle of July 2020 and could be here from then on if he doesn't get overwhelmed early.   He and Karinchak could make a great 1-2 punch as setup men or form a 3-headed monster at closer with Brad Hand.  

23. Juan Hillman - In the grind. I don't know if he will ever make it but at least he is still moving up levels.   If he can start 2020 in Akron and succeed there, he could be on a near-vertical trajectory.

24. Joe Naranjo - First 2019 hitter on this list.  None of the 2019 hitter draftees impressed me but Naranjo at least had intriguing stats.

25. Will Benson - His LC year is beginning to look like a veteran of the league loading up against greener prospects.   2020 is a big year for him.   We are all waiting for him to break out.

26. Brayan Rocchio - Did not show the same flash as in 2018.  Just looks like another decent prospect now.  A move up to Lake County in 2020 and a full season at LC will tell us more.

27.  Aaron Bracho - I will give him this year as he missed all of last year but, like Rocchio, he has a lot to prove in 2020.

28. Jose Fermin

29. Marcos Gonzalez

30. Gabriel Rodriguez

31. Junior Sanquintin

32. Mark Mathias

33. Yu Chang

34. Raynel Delgado

35. Yordys Valdes

35. Victor Nova

36. Eric Haase

37. Jonathon Rodrigez

38. Christian Cairo

38. Aaron PInto

39. Jean Carlos Mejia

40. Jean Mota

41. Steven Kwan

42, Dalbert Siri

43. Shao Ching Chiang

44. Cam Hill

45. Yainer Diaz

45. Richard Palacios

46. Lenny Torres

47. Carlos Vargas

48. Will Bartlett

49. Skyler Arias

50. Kirk McCarthy

Quick non-baseball thoughts

I honestly think Ohio State's football coaching staff is better this year, overall, than in any year under Urban Meyer.   They may not get to the final 4 if they have a hiccup along the way but I think they are better prepared and react better to in-game situations/trends than in the past.   If that latter thing was a point of emphasis this year, well, consider it improved dramatically...so far.

When I was a little younger the expression was "Well that is (fill in time spent) I will never get back".   It usually applied to situations that turned out not to be satisfying and, as the impression implies, were a total waste of time.   That is what I said after watching the Browns game tonight.   Total waste of time and, worse, players looking like they (a) were totally confused and frustrated that things were going so badly, (b) totally mad that Baker Mayfield couldn't make the plays necessary to get them back in the game, (c) as the game wore on, totally looking like they were going through the motions trying not to get hurt so the they could continue getting a paycheck and, finally (d) Fred Kitchens looking forlorn and dazed on the sidelines, telling me that he has totally lost control of this team and that he is probably in over his head as a head coach of THIS team at THIS point in his experience as a coach.  The comical thing:  That is the way I remember Belichik looking when he coached the Browns.  Wouldn't that be hilarious....

College football recruiting and the subsequent transfer portal are interesting to study.   What your recruiting class in any given year looks like on October of the year of a kid's high school senior year and what that recruiting class looks like after the December early signing period and after the transfer portal shuffle over the following two years is amazing.   When talent evaluators have to wait until the summer after that player's sophomore year to evaluate the recruiting class from two years prior AND NONE OF IT HAS TO DO WITH PERFORMANCE BUT, RATHER, ON PERSONNEL SHUFFLING speaks volumes.  Ah, for the old days of no early commitments and no transfer portal when your recruiting class could be judged early and only changed due to injuries or overachieving.  Those were the days.

Of Yandy Diaz, Gio Urshela,Asdrubal Cabrera, the Indians FO/Management team and Francisco Lindor

As I saw Yandy Diaz blast his two HRs in the wildcard game I thought to myself "Wow, baby, here it comes".   The "it" is of course the internet reaction to letting Yandy and Gio go.

As a person who has blogged repeatedly over the years about the bonehead moves the Indians have and have not made, let me weigh in on this one and other things.

Yandy - Let's get this out there once and for all: the Indians failed with Yandy Diaz.   That being said, other teams have failed with other players.   It sometimes take being traded to get the player to wake up and smell the coffee.   It also sometimes takes a change of scenery and a different person saying EXACTLY the same thing in a slightly different way for a player to respond.

So Yandy is likely to become the Yandy we all wished he would have become here.  Unfortunately for the Rays he will do it at first base or, more likely, at DH.  

Still, just like Jesus Aguilar, if they would have stuck with Yandy a little more and given him more extended playing time, he could have, in an average world, ended up like he is today.

I was really pissed about them letting Aguilar go for nothing.   That was a boneheaded move, IMHO, and they paid a lot more for Encarnacion.   Paying for Encarnacion is not the issue as all good, playoff-likely teams pay for players instead of gambling on internal options.   It is that we are the Cleveland Indians and when you play in the AL Central maybe you gamble on internal options.   Maybe one.  Not an entire outfield but maybe one.

So the story of Yandy and Jesus is done.   Water under the bridge.   Lesson learned.   Right?

Well, there is a guy at AAA, Bobby Bradley, that is on the road to become the next Yandy and Jesus if the Indians don't get their heads out of their butts.

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.   What happens if you get fooled 3 imtes?

One last point on this.   The Indians gave Jake Bauers extended playing time this year after his failed second half with Tampa last year.   And he failed again.   So what did the Indians do?   They had a long exit interview with him essentially telling BAUERS to get his head out of butt.   Now ain't that the pot calling the kettle black?!?!  

Urshela is another story.   Again, the Indians gave this guy playing time and he didn't hit.   He was a great fielder but he didn't hit.    They could have groomed him as a utility infielder but, instead, we ended the year with Flaherty, Freeman and Valesquez on the team and Arroyo on the DH.   I would have rather just kept Urshela.   By all accounts he was a good clubhouse guy.   But you know what he wasn't?  He wasn't a AAAA veteran who would take what he was given and then ask "Can I have some more please?"  Trust me, even without the hitting he has shown this year, I would have taken Urshela for his defense.  But not the Indians.   They let him go for nothing because they had other options (read: Erik Gonzalez) and then traded that other option away this past winter, leaving them with AAAA guys and an under-ready Yu Chang to fill in when needed.

You have to groom your own guys and give them a chance to flourish.   If they don't you make them utility guys or keep working with them in the minors until they develop or leave as 6-year free agents.

Now on to Asdrubal Cabrera..   It takes two to tango and I don't know if he wanted to come back here this year.   However, had he come here he would have only cost us a few dollars and, frankly, he might have been the difference we needed down the stretch, especially when Ramirez and then Kipnis went down with injuries.    I asked for the Indians to get him and they didn't.   He has certainly helped the Nationals, hasn't he...even against the Indians, if you remember.

Finally, our FO is rock solid.   They Puig/Reyes/Allen/Moss deal was a classic.  The management group gave the GM unreasonable requirements and the Indians stuck to those.   Yeah, I didn't like losing Brantley and you can easily make the case that having him cost us the AL Central and the Wild Card.   However, the Twins and Rays are both down 2-0.   Would he have made any difference in the playoffs?  I don't think so, especially as his signing may have impacted that result?  Maybe, but I don't see Brantley moving the needle in the playoffs and given that we made it down to the last weekend before being eliminated, I think it was a gamble worth taking.   I mean, even the Astros would only go for two years with Brantley and he sucked up that deal almost instantaneously so you know he didn't leave much, if any, money on the table.    The Astros wanted him and I suspect they way outbid other teams for him to sign him early.   They got their man who is clearly a help to a team with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke.   In hindsight, a team without Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco would not have benefitted so much from Brantley and had he been here, we still don't make it to the WS, and maybe not to the AL championship series.

So, the management team IS to blame for being cheap.   But I don't know if their cheapness is Major League cheapness.   I think it is more fiscal responsibility.

One last thought:  Now that we are talking about cheap management, let's talk about Lindor.   Right now the Indians should lock him up with a Mike Trout-level contract.  I mean right now.   He is a once in a lifetime ballplayer.   I live in St. Louis and I can tell you that having HOF players and great current players bring in fans.   That is part of tradition.   The Indians drew fans in the 90s as much because of the fans getting to see star players as they did because of the winning.    The Cardinals do this all the time.   I am telling you as I have said for a long time now, you cannot beat the bronze statues outside of Busch Stadium.   To say that statuses bring fans to the game is really crazy.   But it is the tradition and those statues represent tradition.   Lindor is the latest tradition for the Indians.   If he will sign here then sign him NOW.   One warning for Indians fans, however.   It may just be that the size of the contract that would be necessary to keep Lindor in Cleveland might be EXACTLY what causes him not to sign here.   He would have to see that a $25-30 million a year contract would seriously hamstring the Indians from bringing in other veteran pieces, or keeping current stars, thus making our long-term competitiveness in question.   Mike Trout is facing the same thing in LA and don't think that Lindor doesn't see that.   He may just decide that he wants to play in NY or in LA where he can make his money AND have a realistic chance to be on a perennial winning team as there will be dollars for other guys.       But you make him the 10 year contract offer.   And you do it now AND you do it in addition to the current payroll.   You don't have to spend more money and can even cut the budget for the rest of the team a little to make up for the large contract for Lindor.   But you sign Lindor now.   THAT will bring fans to the park.

Great season, Indians!

I am writing this three days early to beat the rush.   The Indians are very likely not to make the playoffs.

However, that, in no way, talks about the success they had this season.  Granted, if you remove the games against Detroit and Kansas City (30-8) they would only be 5 games over .500.   Still, when you look at their record against the AL division champions (Yankees, Twins and Astros) they are 16-15.  Where they have fallen down is mainly against the A's and Rays where they are 2-11 which appropriately, I guess, means that they really shouldn't be in the playoffs over those two teams who, frankly, both play in better divisions than the Indians do.

I hate whining about injuries and breaks although the Indians have had their share of bad things happen.  When you look at how the Indians, Rays, Twins and Oakland played down the stretch, clearly the last 3 teams won those close games the Indians lost and rallied from behind so many times I probably doubled my gray hair just watching and hoping they would lose only to be disappointed in the last or next to last inning of a LOT of the Rays, As and Twins games.   Basically, it was the Twins' year.   Most things broke well for them and they took care of business against the weakest teams, something the Indians did not do against the White Sox (8-11).

Still, if you are an Indians fan you should really be happy with this season.   I am OK with not having a wildcard game loss or a 3-0 exit against the Astros or Yankees, although I think we could have easily upset the Yankees.  We would need it to be 'our year' to get to the World Series with everything having to fall into place down the stretch, which it didn't.  Hand going south and Ramirez getting hurt really, for all practical purposes, ended our season.   With all the other injuries we had those last two were just too much.   Again, just not our year!

Kudos to the front office though.   They brought in Puig who gave us hope for 2019 and they brought in Reyes, Allen and Moss who give us hope for the future. Losing Puig is a big deal but we have bodies to cover that.    

The front office still has work to do, though.   Bauers is looking like a bust while Yandy Diaz, is looking like the one that got away and, had he not gotten hurt, would look even MORE like that. The Luplow trade is looking a little better than it did when it was made but frankly, time will tell on that one as Gonzalez was hurt most of the year for the Pirates and, frankly, probably cost the Pirates any chance to make the playoffs as unlikely as that sounds to you.

Kudos to the player development people for drafting and developing pitchers.   Still, on the hitter side they have a lot of work to do as Nolan Jones, Will Benson and Bobby Bradley still have significant work to do before they can help us.  Right now, only Freeman looks like a sure-fire thing although Jones is looking more like one, although he might have to move to the OF or first base which would put more pressure on his bat that it currently projects to produce.  Plus Bradley not being called up late in the year could be a red flag on his worth to the team.   The fact that they traded for Arroyo and Valesquez and brought up Flaherty in September is also telling.  I don't know how much they think of Mark Mathias as bringing him up would have made sense as they have to make a Rule 5 decision on him this off-season.   As Ernie Clement is not eligible for the Rule 5 this off-season I get not bringing him up for 40-man roster management.   Still, as we head to this last weekend with Kipnis hurt and Chang struggling, I would have liked to see both Clement and Mathias get their cup of coffee in.  Now that we are backed up with utility infielders with ML experience it is tough to see either of them getting much of a shot next year.  Honestly I think Clement would have had more of a positive impact on this team than Flaherty did and I am 50-50 whether Mathias with youthful energy and lack of knowing the gravity of his situation on his side would have been better than the non-factor Flaherty was.

As far as young pitching, we saw as much this year as we could possibly have hoped to see.     Karinchak getting his cup of coffee and all the other young guys being brought up and performing well was perfect.   Given the injuries to Sandlin, Cam Hill, and McKenzie, and their resultant unavailability for an August or September callup, we have established a good, young core of pitchers in the future with more pitchers, if they can avoid surgeries, on the cusp of getting promoted.

Coming up next: my end of season top 50 Indians prospects.  Stay tuned.

 

Thoughts for a Wednesday: I am OK with all of this

Look, here was my thought process:

1. We win the division.   The Astros overtake the Yankees for the best record.

2. We play the Yankees and with their pitching woes, we outpitch them and get enough timely hitting that we win in 4 games.

3. An innumerable list of things converge on the Astros-Indians AL Championship series and the Indians win, again, in 6, against all odds of doing so.   For example, our bullpen gives up 1 run in 20 innings of work and the Astros bullpen gives up 6 runs in 11 innings and the Astros starters all do David Price impersonations in the post-season.

4. We get to the World Series and play the Cardinals who follow the same path as the Indians.   The Indians win in 4 games as sort of an anti-matter exclamation point to how the 1954 World Series went.

But more and more this doesn't look like a possibility.   The Indians cannot play perfect enough ball to overcome all the injuries and collapses their team is undergoing.   Plus, frankly, Francona's decisions recently have come into question.   And the FO is not far behind him when their big September callups are guys who aren't helping now and are unlikely to help next year (e.g., Hoyt and Flaherty).   Veteran leadership and off-season 40-man roster management do have importance but who wouldn't rather see Mark Mathias or Ernie Clement instead of Flaherty and who wouldn't rather see Karinchak rather than Hoyt or Maton?   At least if you are going to try to compete AND rebuild do it with guys who can fit both of those roles and, at the same time, bring some excitement to the part!

So, given the injuries, the plethora of past-their-prime or never at their prime veterans,  the number of key injuries and the general raincloud hanging over the team this year, I am OK if they don't make the playoffs.   Really.  OK. with it.

Who wants to see a repeat of 2017 and 2018?   Certainly not me.

Who is OK with saying that we had another winning season?   That is me

Who is OK with not making the playoffs this year given the pretty much expected outcome?  That, again, is me.

I am tired.   We are in with the rest of have nots in baseball.   The only difference is that we have lucked out with cheap, controllable players.   Whatever it takes we need to sign Lindor up for life.   We need to continue to develop guys.   We need to fill the pipeline again.

So I am happy with where the ML team is going, even if that is NOWHERE this year.   What I am not happy with is the state of the farm system...but that is a post for another time.

Final stats - 2019 HS draftees

OK, so here is the final look at the overall stats of high school hitters who were high Indians' draftees in the 2019 draft.  These are the stats for Will Bartlett, Joe Naranjo, Yordys Valdes, Christian Cairo and Jordan Brown.

705 AB
99 Runs
151 Hits
64 RBI
25 Doubles
5 Triples
5 Homeruns
27 Stolen Bases
107 Walks
217 Strikeouts
.215 Batting Average

For reference, here are the combined stats of HS hitters drafted highly by the Indians in the previous 3 drafts.

2018 - HS hitters Holland, Naylor, Delgado: 108-384  16 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR  74 BB  102 K   .281 BA

2017 - HS hitters Holmes, Freeman, Rodriguez, Cooper 128-552, 27 2B 9 3B 7 HR 53 BB  128 K .232 BA

2016 - HS hitters Benson, Jones, Capel, Cantu, Taylor 146-630 27 2B 10 3B 8 HR 79 BB 195 K ,232 BA


Obviously my opinion is that the 2019 stats are underwhelming especially since Valdes, Cairo and Brown hit under .190 each and the guys with the two best results, Bartlett and Naranjo, hit a combined 2 HRs.

Time will tell but nothing I have seen so far changes my opinion that not only did the Indians blow this draft but messed it up so badly that almost none of these guys will make it to the majors and all but 1 or 2 will never make it past Lake County, something that shouldn't happen with guys drafted this high.  I doubt that any of these guys even make the top 10 Indians prospect lists this off-season and that none of them will make the top 20 prospects in the AZL, when that list comes out form Baseball America.

Small market teams need to score big in the draft.   Maybe not as big as the Indians 2016 draft but still, big.   This may be the worst draft in a long while in Cleveland and we can't have that if we are going to be competitive long term.

A look at the 40 man roster and September callups

OK, there is a lot of rehabbing going on in the Indians organization this week.   So let's take a look at the 40-man roster on how this will all impact our September callups.  

60 Day DL 

Right now Zimmer, Carrasco, Otero, Kluber, Christian Arroyo, Jefry Rodriguez and Cody Anderson are on this list.   As none of these guys count against the 40 man roster if they are added to the roster someone else has to be taken off the roster.

Likely to activated in September: Carrasco, Otero, Zimmer

Maybe activated in September: Kluber and Rodriguez

Likely not to be activated in September: Anderson and Arroyo

That means that we could have up to 5 guys added to the 40 man roster meaning we would have to remove 5 guys.

40 Man Roster

Looking at the Indians' 40 man roster for guys who could be removed or put on the 60 day DL in order to make room for these callups, here is what I see:

Candidates to be removed from the roster (designated for assignment):

Very likely: Jon Edwards, Phil Maton, Jordan Stephens.
Somewhat likely; Andrew Velazquez, Josh Smith, Cody Anderson, Christian Arroyo
Unlikely: Cody Anderson, Christian Arroyo, Jean Carlos Mejia, Sam Hentges, Jake Bauers, Bobby Bradley

So, looking at the guys coming off the 60 day DL it is likely that Edwards, Maton and Stephens will be DFA  for Carrasco, Otero and Zimmer.   If Kluber and Rodriguez are activated then Velazquez and Josh Smith are likely gone.

As far as Anderson and Arroyo, there is an advantage to keeping them on the 60-day DL as they afford the Indians the opportunity to bring up two guys from the minors not on the 40 man roster IF the Indians make the playoffs.

September Callups:

Called up from the minors:

Likely: Bauers, Haase
Somewhat likely: Bradley (but only after the IL playoffs and only if he starts hitting)


Activated from the 10 day DL

Likely: Salazar, Luplow
Maybe: Tyler Olson, AJ Cole,
Not likely: Jose Ramirez

Callups not currently on the 40-man roster

No one is likely to be called up in September due to the roster crunch.  

While all of us would like to see James Karinchak (I can already see the nicknames now: K-man, K-dog, James KKK, etc.) and Daniel Johnson called up, there won't be any expendable guys left on the 40-man roster who could be removed.   The only thing I could see is if the Indians would take a guy on the 10 day DL and move them to the 60 day DL, such as AJ Cole, Tyler Olson or even Jose Ramirez if they don't anticipate them helping the Indians in the playoffs, if we make it that far.   If the Indians are going to add players to the 60-day DL they would likely do it before September 1st to get Karinchak and Johnson up to the majors for the September run to see what they have AND to give the Indains more roster flexibility for the playoffs with the extra guys on the 60-day DL (See above regarding Arroyo and Anderson)..

Well, there you have it.   I would love to see guys like Cam Hill and other minor league relievers get their chance but it is unlikely Francona would trust them AND we don't want to add them if he isn't going to use them because it makes our situation for the 40-man roster over the winter even more difficult than it will be already.  Frankly, even with the free agents we have, it will still be a difficult winter as prospects may have to be removed from the 40 man, something we haven't seen in recent years.  So in a rebuilding organization some more guys might be called to the majors for the first time but, in the middle of a playoff race with guys returning from the DL, it's likely these minor leaguers will have to wait until at least next year to make the ML debuts.

Still, there should be a lot of movement on the roster after September 1st.   We'll just have to see how much with a lot of that dependent on how our DL players progress.

Thoughts for a Friday night

We are tied for first.  Yeah!   Good job guys.   We have a long way to go but the Indians are playing well.

If only Franmil could start hitting:  Look, the guy is the perfect DH.   He should thrive in that role once he adjusts to the league and his new surroundings.   If he can just get on a tear from now to the end of the month I think this would be just what the Indians need to get through this tough stretch.

Speaking about getting through this tough stretch, it would be great if Kluber could be back in a couple of weeks at full-Klubot strength!  Ditto for Danny Salazar as we could use him the rest of the way.

Little league numbers: We talked a little about our minor league relievers earlier in the year.   Nick Sandlin and James Karinchak appeared on the fast track to Cleveland.  Then injuries derailed both.  Sandlin is shut down for the year.  Karinchak also was injured after a good beginning to his AAA experience and was rusty when he came back on his rehab assignments and to AAA.   But now he is on sort of a role.

Sort of?  Well he has given up some runs and hits but look at his strikeouts.

He has pitched 8 2/3 AAA innings.   That's 26 individual outs, folks, assuming no double plays.  He has struck out 23 guys.  

Only 3 guys have hit into outs against him!  I mean any little leaguer with an early growth spurt and a strong arm would be pleased with that ratio...against 8 year olds!

That is what is amazing here.  He is doing it against AAA hitters, who are made up of AAAA veterans and really good prospects.  The first time I looked at these numbers I thought they were a typo.   I can't remember ANY player having this type of swing-and-miss stuff against AAA players.

He could be what we need at the end of the bullpen.   And maybe as early as September and, if we play the IL correctly, maybe in the playoffs if we make it that far.   He, along with Reyes and Salazar could be the end-of-season surprises that Cinderella playoff teams leverage into deep runs in the playoffs.   Hey, I don't want to get ahead of myself here but looking ahead I can see a path to a number of guys who are not helping now helping out later on this year when we need it the most.

It's the morning after, here are some more thoughts

Great trade by the Indians.

As far as more trades I would still love to get Gyorko and Addrubal Cabrera.   Howeer, looking at the way the Indians lineup stacks up, here is what I think we have:

DH-  Reyes
C- Perez, Plaicki
1B - Santana, Bauers
2B - Kipnis
SS - Lindor
3B - Ramirez
LF - Naquin/Luplow
CF- Mercado, Allen
RF - Puig
Utility IF - Freeman

Right now I can only see two weaknesses:

• Santana full time at 1B as this might wear him down and make him more susceptible to injury.
• Utility infielder

Cabrera and Gyorko would be a luxury and, looking at the above lineup I would want someone who could replace Freeman and play some SS if necessary.   Now that I see the lineup and get that Reyes will probably be the DH,  and that Luplow and Naquin form a great two-headed monster, I can't see how I could give up Naquin or Luplow.   So I am left with Bauers.   That would get us Gyorko (along with Elledge) but I don't know how to get Cabrera and Gyorko.   

  

There is time left. Anybody for another trade or two?

As I mentioned in my previous article, the Indians could use help at various positions to round out a playoff-caliber position player part of their roster.   A couple of guys who come to mind are:

Jedd Gyorko - The signals are that the Cardinals would be willing to move him.   He is on the 60 day DL but appears to be coming off soon.  

Asdrubal Cabrera -He is versatile and could help us as he is also a switch hitter.

So, swallowing hard but thinking to the present, what about:

Jedd Gyorko and a minor leaguer (RHP Seth Elledge?) for Jake Bauers

Asdrubal Cabrera and a AZL prospect similar to Victor Nova for Tyler Naquin

These are young-for-older rental player trades but if we also got a young guy in each deal who has some upside but is years away, I would do these trades.

Just to be clear, I HATE these kind of trades because they sometimes come back to bite you in the butt and, in Bauers case, because we traded him for Yandy Diaz who is raking, but I think these types of veterans might help solidify the clubhouse. and make our ML roster more playoff-formidable.

Any thoughts?
 

Early analysis of the Trevor Bauer trade

Overall analysis -The Indians got better offensively and defensively in this trade.   They also obtained young ML-ready players and prospects, things that the Cleveland Indians always need to do, given that they can't make up for mistakes or injuries by signing expensive free agents or taking on a lot of ML salary.

Impact on the 25 man roster - This is where life gets interesting.  The Indians add 3 players (Logan Allen, Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes) to their 25 man roster and only lose one player, Trevor Bauer.

Looking at this extremely simply the Indians should subtract two outfielders, preferably right-handed hitting outfielders to offset the addition of righties Reyes and Puig.  That would mean that Jordan Luplow and Greg Allen would likely go to the minors, looking at it simply.

However, I don't think that is the way the Indians will go.   Allen is hitting now and too valuable as a pinch runner and as our only true backup centerfielder.

Instead, looking solely at production, Jake Bauers and Jordan Luplow would be the odd men out in this trade.

That would leave the Indians with 5 outfielders like they have now, but they would be Mercado, Reyes, Puig, Naquin and Allen being the outfielders.

As far as pitching, we have the addition of Allen.   Possibly, especially given his struggles so far, Allen is sent back to AAA to help get his act together.   On the other hand, if Salazar is used as an opener, Allen slots in nicely as the followup pitcher to help save the rest of the bullpen.  We also have Kluber coming back from the 60-day DL so that impacts the roster, as well.

Impact on the 40 man roster -

Currently this should not be a problem as, if Luplow and Bauers stay in the organization, we can remove guys like Jon Edwards, Josh Smith and Jordan Stephens to free up space.  One or more of these guys could also be thrown into an upcoming trade (see below).  We will need probably all three of these roster spaces when you think that we have to add Kluber and Salazar in the next few weeks.

This winter we will have to make room for Scott Moss and some of the following guys who will become Rule 5 eligible this winter: Triston McKenzie, Daniel Johnson, Jean Carlos Mejia and Oscar Gonzalez, among others.   This doesn't seem like it would hard to protect McKenzie and Johnson and it might be possible to protect one or two more, especially if they are relief prospects expected to be on the ML roster in 2020 but we should remember that we have a number of guys on the 60-day DL who will have to be rostered this winter (Anderson,  Zimmer, Rodriguez)

Impact on future trades:

This is where life could get really interesting.   There are still several hours before the trade deadline and we have guys like Bauers, Luplow, maybe Tyler Naquin, all of the aforementioned guys who are candidates to be removed from the 40-man roster and even some intriguing prospects like Mejia and Gonzalez who we could move now and not risk another Anthony Santander situation this winter.

Why do I mention this?   Well, we could really use help at a couple of positions: first base (if we trade Bauers) and utility infielder.   While I love guys like Mike Freeman I think some upgrade offensively would help.   A couple of guys you could target would be Asdrubal Cabrera and Jedd Gyorko, who is currently on the 60 day DL but is likely to come off soon.   If you could add both of these players at a reasonable cost this could really round out the roster and make us a post-seasons threat.

Thoughts for July 20th

Indians-Twins

This is a marathon and anything can happen but things are starting to break the Indians' way.   I still think Jose Ramirez has more in the tank to give us as he is still hitting a lot of line drives at people. But it makes each game exciting to watch....and it makes scoreboard watching fun.

Trading Trevor Bauer

I have to admit trading Bauer right now would be a huge risk...but like others it is a risk I would take.  So here are two trade proposals I think have merit:

Trevor Bauer and Jake Bauers to San Diego for Hunter Renfro, Luis Patino and Luis Capusano

or

Trevor Bauer to Yankees,  Whit Merrifield and Nick Nelson to Indians, Clint Frazier, Michael King and Argenis Angulo to Kansas City.

The goal is to be competitive now and in the future and these trades help us with both.   Realize that Renfro is not a world beater hitting only .236 against righties this year but he does have power.  

Indians 2019 Draftee hitter watch

I know I have been tracking this in a negative way because I don't like their draft this year but here it goes anyway:

Yordys Valdes  17-80, 1 2B, 10 BB 10 SB
Christian Cairo 12-67, 1 3B, 10 BB, 4 SB
Joe Naranjo 17-75, 1 2B, 10 BB, 0 SB
Will Bartlett 12-67, 5 2B, 11 BB, 1 SB
Jordan Brown 4-41, 2 2B, 12 BB, 2 SB

So, for all those picks in the first round we have, so far, 62-330 with 9 2B, 1 3B, O HR, 53 BB and 17 SB, 92 K.

I know its early but, as I have said before, these are historically bad numbers for Indians HS hitter draftees in the first 10 rounds of the draft.

Thoughts for a July 5th

First, the joke goes that it is always the darkest just before everything goes totally black.   For the Indians of this week, the expression reverts back to the original expression: its always darkest right before the dawn.   After two straight 13-0 losses to maybe the worst team in baseball the Indians won 4 straight...albeit while playing the likely two worst teams in baseball, the Orioles and the Royals.  Still, it puts the Indians 10 games over .500 and 6 games behind the Twins.  Now, this is sometimes where the team like the Indians, making a run to catch up to a team way in front of them, run out of steam and start to fall back.   Sometimes they hit a lull and then continue their climb back to the top and, very rarely, all the pieces keep coming together and they just steamroll by their competition.

We'll see what happens as the Twins are crushing the Rangers tonight.

Second, our 2019 HS hitter draftees are starting to hit.  We will keep watching that situation develop.

Third, I know this is early in the season but I can't remember a season where the Indians AZL team(s) have looked so devoid of talent.  Yeah, they are doing well but really, are ANY of these guys performing like stars in the making?  Last year we had a number of guys who looked like studs but, right now, there isn't anyone who is a true prospect and not just an overage player doing anything on the AZL teams.  Even their best hitter this year, Yainer Diaz, is just repeating the AZL league after hitting .355 there last year.   Even Aaron Bracho is looking like a suspect more than a prospect.  And none of their pitchers even look promising, let alone dominating, except, of course, for those overage college pitchers.

Fourth, Mahoning Valley, in contrast, has a lot of interesting players and pitchers.   I really like their hitters and, although some are having their ups and downs, it is easy to project about a half dozen or more of their young hitters turning into major league players down the road.  If the Indians do make July trades for veterans (I really hope not) look for a lot of the trade bait to come from this team.

Fifth, there are lots of interesting pitchers in the minors.   It is a shame that James Karinchak and Nick Sandlin are injured as they were both on the fast track to get to the majors.    It would have been refreshing to see those guys in the ML bullpen for years starting this month or in August.  Right now, however, it is hard to even imagine either of them making a significant contribution for anything but a small part of 2020, let alone this year.   Even with their bad luck, other guys are stepping forward and we may see them in the majors as early as the middle of next season.   Kyle Nelson, Adam Scott, and Eli Morgan may be the next wave of guys after Bieber, Civale and Plesac to make their impact in the majors for the Tribe.  And I WISH the Indians would just move Sam Hentges to the bullpen.   I think he gets to the majors next spring if they just make that change.  

Sixth, the international signing deadline is puzzling to me.   Baseball America doesn't even make top 20 lists for the Latin American league because it is so hard to predict what these players will turn out to be.   Still, the Indians best prospects from the last couple of years are getting in their reps and showing some glimpses of star power so we will see.   However, this year more than the last few we will have to count on the Indians' Latin scouts to have found gems that other teams has missed.    Why do I say that?   When your top international signee is the 24th best prospect in this year's crop it doesn't make it seem like there is any star power there.   Yeah, you can sign these guys in droves but when you are trading away international bonus money I fear that it means that we are going cheap internationally which bodes badly for an organization that isn't exactly killing it in the draft.   I hope I am wrong but initial reviews of the Indians 2019 international signees is not that good compared to the rest of the league.

Well, we have two more games against the dangerous Reds and then it's time to celebrate our first all-star game in while, our 3 all-stars and our HR derby contestant.   Go Tribe.  .

Indians manage to bend time and space!

I don't know how this happened but the Indians pitchers and the Orioles hitters played the last two games in London while the Indians hitters and the Orioles position players were transported back in time to 1908 where they played in the Polo Grounds and they twice faced Christy Mathewson.

I know this is not how it looked on your TV screens or other electronic devices but just like when the United States 'landed' men on the moon, the apparent locations were all faked.

Now that we have established the only way the 2019 Indians could lose consecutive games by identical scores of 13-0 to the worst team in baseball, I am now able to go to bed and get very restful sleep.

Good night and God bless!

2019 Draft - HS Hitter Update

Through the games of 6/27 here are the combined numbers for Bartlett, Valdes, Naranjo, Cairo and Brown.

108 AB 12 R 16 H 7 RBI  4 2B  0 3B  0 HR   11 BB 35 K   BA .148  SLG .185  

Take away Bartlett's numbers and you are left with this for the rest of the guys:

82 AB  8 R  9 H  4 RBI  1 2B  10 BB 28 K   BA .110  SLG .122

Suffice it to say that this is a dismal start for the 2019 draft class and now it is getting into the realm of being a little larger than a typical small sample size.  

2019 draft - HS hitter update

Warning: small sample size

Warning: I think these kids got thrown into games sooner than I remember from previous years (maybe a mirage caused by all these guys have their signings announced at the same time).

Nonetheless,  when you look at the starts of Bartlett, Brown, Valdes, Cairo and Naranjo, you have

10-60 4 2B, 0 3B,   0 HR,  3 BB, 18 K

I am not really sure given the small sample size but right now these guys look totally overmatched.   Take away Bartlett's 4-14 and 3 2B hits, the rest of the guys are 6-46, 1 2B, 2 BB 14 K.

It may have happened but I, personally, don't remember a year where the HS hitters we drafted started off so dismally.

By comparison:

2018 - HS hitters Holland, Naylor, Delgado: 108-384  16 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR  74 BB  102 K

2017 - HS hitters Holmes, Freeman, Rodriguez, Cooper 128-552, 27 2B 9 3B 7 HR 53 BB  128 K

2016 - HS hitters Benson, Jones, Capel, Cantu, Taylor 146-630 27 2B 10 3B 8 HR 79 BB 195 K

Looking at the stats, compared to this year's class, Quentin Holmes, the worst of the last 3 classes of HS hitters we have drafted, would probably be one of if not THE best HS hitter, statistically, if he was drafted this year.

Again, this year is a very small sample size so far but, in my recollection at least over the last 3 years, I have never seen a group struggle so much, even right out of the gate like this.  Considering how much money we paid these guys, you would have expected better production.

2016 Draft

OK, Indians fans will be talking about this for weeks, hopefully months, and dreaming on "for years" so let me be one of the first to proclaim:

THIS COULD BE THE BEST DRAFT IN CLEVELAND INDIANS HISTORY!!!!!!!!!!

OK, there.  I said it.

Once in a while the plan comes together perfectly.   You take some high risk guys early, one of whom you have to go way overslot to sign.  You sprinkle in some low risk college pitchers, go back to some higher risk hitters, sprinkle in some college seniors and a few flyers in later rounds who you can sign to reasonable bonuses based on them (a) wanting to turn pro and (b) them having to accept a lower bonus due to their circumstances.

...and then they all advance....very quickly.

Let's look at this draft:

1. Will Benson - Not going as fast as we would like but he has started an upward trajectory...finally.  This works for this pick because...

2. Nolan Jones - The guy who took a large, overslot bonus to sign is moving quickly and looking very good.

2b. Logan Ice - Here's your first 'clunker' although I don't know how you can call a guy who is playing in AA in his 4th year a clunker.   Yeah, it is likely that Corey Kluber is as good a hitter as Ice and, therefore, no way would any major league teams be able to carry his anemic hitting at the big league level, but it was, and continues to be, a good gamble.

3. Aaron Civale - The first of the college pitchers, he has trailed slightly behind Bieber but, except for his ST injury this year, he might have been in the majors before Zach Plesac.   He is solid but what separates him from Bieber is Bieber's velocity spike once he turned pro.  Civale hasn't had that and so will have to continue to be very fine to be successful.  Whereas Bieber looks good his second time around the league, Civale will likely struggle a bit.   Still, he's in the majors and helped us immensely to the win yesterday.

4. Shane Bieber - What can you say?  The classic he's-a-solid-pitchability-guy-who-if-he-had-a-tougher-fastball-he-could-be-a-star guy who actually developed that fastball...and he is on the way to being a star or, at least, a solid, Dave Burba-like starter.

5. Conner Capel - Spiked fast in his development which allowed us to use him to get Oscar Mercado.  Enough said.

6. Ulysses Cantu -

7. Michael Tinsley

8. Andrew Lantrip

9.  Hosea Nelson

10. Samad Taylor - Did well early in his career and was wasted, uhhh, traded along with Thomas Pannone for Joe Smith, who didn't impact the outcome of the 2017 playoffs...at all.

11. Andrew Calica - Doing OK as a 4th outfield type, major leaguer until he got hurt this year.

12. Zach Plesac - Like Adam Plutko before him, a flyer who signed with the Indians.   Plesac had TJ surgery but the Indians took the risk and now they are getting rewarded.  

After Plesac we signed Mitch Longo, Gavin Collins, Ben Krauth, Trenton Brooks, Ben Krauth, Raymond Burgos, Dakody Clemmer, Skyler Arias, Jonathon Laureno, Tanner Tully and Ryder Ryan, the latter having been traded and now pitching at AA.

Note that all of these guys, 4 years later, are STILL in the Indians system and working their way up the ladder.  Yeah, not all of them are going to be major leaguers but they are ALL still working their way up the ladder, each showing some level of promise along the way.

That's 23 guys who we drafted and signed in 2016 who are still either with us or who have been traded for veterans and are still playing and advancing with other organizations.  In fact, except for Mike Leftkewicz and James Rudlegde, I don't see another guy they signed from this draft who they have cut four years after the draft.  23 out of 25 still player.  That, in itself, is truly amazing.

But if you dig deeper you find the following guys who were drafted in 2016 and, as high schools decided to go the college instead of signing.: Pedro Alfonseca and Mike Amditis went to college and were subsequently drafted by the Indians.  Will Crowe, Austin Shenton, Kramer Robertson, Blake Sabol, Chris Farish and Danny Sinatro went to college and were later drafted and are playing for other teams.

So,  in summary, here is what we have from the Indians 2016 draft...already:

3 - major league starting pitchers

4 - players who are/will be in the major league teams top 20 prospect lists

16 -  other guys still playing minor league ball for the Indians or who were used as trade bait and are playing for other organizations.

Plus, for the flyer picks in later rounds who almost NEVER sign as they are going to college and won't except the small bonus they can get if they are drafted after the 10th round:

2  - guys later drafted again, and signed this time, by the Indians.

6 - guys who went to college and were later drafted and are now playing for another organization.

31 of 41 picks, almost exactly 3 years later, are playing in pro ball with a bunch of those having already made it to AA or above.

Truly amazing.

Drafts

I know it is more complicated than this but, in a nutshell:

In baseball, even the best have to wait years before they are drafted and/or signed as amateurs before they play in the majors...if even.

In football, you go right to the highest level or, generally, get cut.  Yeah there is Canadian football or an indoor league or even a few outdoor leagues but, basically, no organized minor league system.

In hockey, if I have this right, you get drafted and then some people make it right to the highest level but most have to pay their dues before getting called up.   Still, it is probably shorter than in baseball.

In basketball, which is why I am thinking about this tonight, maybe 20-25 guys per year get added to the NBA.  although they draft 60.   The rest get stored in the developmental league or play abroad.

So, to me, it looks like football is the top place to be if you want to go right from school to the highest level.  Maybe this is because the attrition is so much greater in football so there is constant turnover that doesn't exist in other sports.   I mean, in the NBA, maybe 1/12 of a team's roster, on average, consists of a guy drafted that previous year.  Not a lot of opportunities.

When the NFL is talking about 6th round draft picks maybe making a team and the NBA is saying the 35th highest draftee is likely going to play in a developmental league, that is saying something.  And baseball? Fa-get-aboud-it.

George Valera

Just seeing him for the first time this year but, man, if you look up the definition of 'easy power'  it must have a picture of Valera.   He takes some of the easiest swings I have seen and the ball just keeps traveling.

Tonight the announcer thought he had popped up to the SS and the ball went almost to the warning track...in left field (he was hitting lefthanded).

Impressive

Thoughts for a Tuesday night

I don't remember ever seeing the AZL team/(s) for the Indians with so little star power.  Literally, except for Espino and Bracho these guys are no-names to me.   Doesn't mean we won't get major league role players or even a regular or two out of the other guys on these rosters but, man, I am glad that I don't have season tickets for these two teams (can you even GET season tickets for complex teams?).

On the good news front, it looks like we signed Ike Freeman as he appeared in an AZL game tonight.

Early returns on our HS draftees from this year are bad.  It is really early but they are currently 1-16 and the college guys are even worse, going 0-9.   Again, its early by 1-22 out of our draft picks is not really looking good.   Things will turn around but you would expect these guys to start hitting soon, right?

Seeing Nick Sandlin in AAA, the guy still has some work to do.   I would not have promoted him from AA but, what the heck. Let him learn his trade at AAA.  It is the first time he has struggled as a pro and maybe from those struggles he can become an even more dominant pitcher.   Hopefully by this time next year we are talking about a dominant bullpen that includes Hand, Cimber, Wittgren, Sandlin, Karinchak and Nelson with others on the cusp.   That would be exciting.

How much longer do we wait to bring up Bradley?  Hey, he is hitting in stat-inflating Columbus but... saw him again tonight and, while there is a lot of difference between AAA and ML pitching, he is starting to look more and more like I imagine he did in the AZL that first year.   And, yes, he is a MUCH better hitter against lefties, meaning he can learn and grow as a hitter.   While he will likely never again match in the majors the eye-popping numbers he had in Arizona, I think he is gaining a level of confidence that will allow him to continue raising his walks and lowering his Ks while keeping his 30+ HR power.   The BA may suffer a little in the beginning but I could see him being a .280/.360/.540 guys for about 5 years in his prime.  If the Indians want to take advantage of that, they need to start accelerating him towards that prime while they still have a quality team on the field.

Talking about power hitters, I don't know what to make of Will Benson.   He is repeating a league and that league is the Midwest League, which has been know on MANY occasions to inflate hitters' stats.   As much as I don't want to spoil a good thing, I think it is time to challenge the guy with a promotion to high A ball in Lynchburg.   I am still not sold on this guy but we need to find out what we have in him.

With Cody Allen's release and Andrew Miller's troubles, I really think that Francona rode these guys too hard and now it is coming back to bite them.  Fortunately both signed lucrative contracts the off-season as these might be the last lucrative contracts either ever signs again.   Which brings me to Trevor Bauer.   Francona is a players manager and a winning manager.   I think that is a bad combination.   Very few players want to be taken out of a game or not used.   Bauer would continue to pitch to the end of the game every time if Francona let him.   I don't care how fit the guy is or how he is throwing harder his last inning, it can't be good for his arm to throw that much.   It WILL impact him later in his career if not this season.  BTW, if Cody Allen wants to come back I sign him to a minor league deal.   Maybe he can reinvent himself in Goodyear.   I think he winds up with his old pitching coach instead, however.

To end this night, I am still in the same place I was at the beginning of the season.   Tee Indians need to stay the course and not trade ANYONE, and that means don't be buyers OR sellers at the deadline.    To turn this from a full rebuild to just a reload, we need to have our core here for another year or so until the new guys get acclimated.  I thnk we can still make the playoffs this year and