Tuesday, December 24, 2019

40 man roster fluff

As we are in the season of giving (we gave away Corey Kluber) we have to consider the possibility of getting multiple players back in trades, all or most of whom would have to be placed on the 40 man roster.   So let's take a look:

Pitchers

We have 21 pitchers on the roster.  20-22 seems to be common with teams so the number seems right)  Here are the breakdowns:

Major league starters: 7 (Carrasco, Clevinger, Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Plutko, Rodriguez)
Minor league starters: 4  (McKenzie, Moss (L), Allen (L), Hentges(L))
Major league relievers: 9 (Clase, Hand (L), Cimber, Karinchak, Hoyt, Maton, Perez (L), Wittgren, Wood)
Minor league relievers: 1 (Mejia)

Analysis: We are a little heavy on major league right-handed relievers.   At this point I consider Maton just a placeholder and would think the same thing about Hoyt if we hadn't brought him back once this off-season.  If we add a quality reliever or two then I think Hoyt and Wood are at risk.   Of course, this analysis is made very cloudy when you consider that one of the least likely guys to get cut, Nick Goody, has already been cut.  So, really, who knows what these analytics and financial people think as far as who is most expendable.  As far as starters I think we have exactly the right numbers (majors and minors combined) with the possibility of one of the lefties making the new 26-man roster as a long reliever.  Mejia is a guy who can stay on the roster now but, if he stinks in the minors and a roster spot is necessary during the year for a guy like Nick Sandlin, then removing Mejia becomes an easy decision.

Catchers: 3 (Haase, Perez, Leon)

Analysis:  This is where you want to be with three catchers who can play in the majors, the least of the three being an older prospect who still has some upside.   You carry two catchers and keep Haase at AAA in case of injury.

Infielders: 8: This includes Hernandez who isn't rostered yet.  

Firstbasemen: 2 (Santana, Bradley)
Starting infielders: 3 (Lindor, Ramirez, Hernandez)
Utility infielders: 3 (Arroyo, Velazquez and Chang)

Analysis: The starting infielders are solid and Bradley is a good prospect to be stashed at AAA in case of emergency.   Bauers is the emergency backup at first base, too, so we are good there.   Where we are way heavy is utility infielder.   Only one of these 3 should make the team.   My guess is that this would be Arroyo with Velazquez only being on the roster as protection in case Arroyo is not ready by opening day.    Chang is the AAA backup.   Perfect.

Outfielders:  9

Analysis:  We all know this is a disaster.  Even if you count Reyes as the DH and Bauers as the utility firstbaseman/corner outfielder you still have 7 outfielders.    If you count on Mercado in CF and the two headed corner outfielder (Luplow/Naquin) you still have 4 outfielders.   As Deshields is the vetran he makes the team.  That leaves Zimmer, Johnson and Allen.   Assuming Zimmer starts the year in the minors to continue his rehab, there is no way that Allen or Johnson make this team out of spring training.  If we get a quality corner outfielder somehow then we are looking at losing Bauers or Deshields or Naquin.   None of this is a problem for me as, except for Mercado, Luplow and Johnson (only because his development ceiling is still unclear), I don't really see Zimmer, Naquin, Allen, De Shields and Bauers having any more than replacement level value.


Overall summary:  We have replacement level players or prospects with minor league options in the major league bullpen, at utility infielder and in the outfield.  Just the major league replacement level players on the current 40 man roster represent at least 1/4 of that roster!  Lots of depth but not a lot of quality beyond the starters.    This makes 2020 a year in which we could easily fall way behind early like we did in 2019 and not have enough steam to catch up at the end, just like in 2019.  

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