It's almost January. Time to see if the cheapness creeps into the International Signing Period

 What normally happens starting July 1st has been pushed back to January to give us something to talk about this winter.

I am talking about the annual signing period for 16+ year old international amateurs.   Most of these come from Latin America.   

Indians Prospective has the following as a tacked post to the top of their Twitter page:

I just thought it was a good time to remind Indians fans everywhere that the lifeblood of an organization like the Indians is their prospects. 

The simple reality is damned if you do and damned if you don't spend money on international amateur signings.   While most of these guys never make it to the majors it is still probably the most cost efficient way to bring young players with upside into your farm system.  Generally, except for the top prospects every year, much more signable and affordable than even drafting and signing US high school players.  

You just can't try to save a few dollars here when the cost of your entire 2020-1 free agent class isn't supposed to exceed Cesar Hernandez' 2020 salary.   

So, let's hope the Indians have continued to do their due diligence and, in fact, sign more solid, high priced prospects than they have in the past instead of just trying to out-scout the competition.

A couple of things to think about:

1. You don't have as much room for international signees as you did in previous years as Mahonning Valley is no longer in existence, removing spots for about 35 minor leaguers.   So, for once, sign quality over quantity to get to your bonus pool cap.   

2. My guess is that followup scouting on some of these guys has been spotty, at best, meaning that some of those diamonds in the rough, even at bargain basement prices, may be not as realistic as just going with more established talent that lives more towards the top of the available players list this year.

In either case, however, the message to the Indians' ownership is the same:  Don't skimp on this talent acquisition method.   Spend like it was a normal year or, even better, spend like you were aware of the upcoming rebuild and wanted to get ahead of it by putting more money at the front of your player development pipeline instead of trying to back fill your prospect lists by trading veterans.  It is cheaper and more impactful on your long-term competitiveness.

So, Tribe fans, be watchful on Jan. 15th.   If the list of guys we sign looks the same as the list above then we are at least trying.   If we add top prospects not on this list then we are doing this the right way for a small market, near-to-a-rebuild team.   

BTW, here is a list of the top 30 international prospects in this signing period:

Top Baseball International Prospects | MLB.com

It would be nice to see as many of these guys signed by the Indians up to their almost $6 million limit.

As predicted, the Lindor trade beat continues

 NOTE: Updated 12/31/2020

The headline from the website reads:

"Francisco Lindor trade setting up to be a let down"

As predicted here, the writers covering the Cleveland Indians are lining up to set expectations low for what the Indians can get for Lindor.  This after all of them are saying how it is inevitable that the Indians will be trading Lindor this winter.

For those of you who read my posts you know how this rankles me.  The inevitability of the trade is bad enough but to set expectations for a bad return is beyond belief.   The 'Hey, I am just telling it as it is' mantra is pathetic.

Look, we are fans of the Cleveland Indians.   We have, in the past, paid our hard earnied money to watch them play, either in person or by subscription to MLB and/or cable channels.  We have also plunked down money (or our friends and relatives have) to buy Indians clothing, further supporting this team.   Hey, just by reading the on-line papers or a blog like this one we are investing our time to support this team.

Now is time that people grow a pair in regards to the Indians.   It's time to picket the stadium and team, either in person or remotely.   The Indians' management doesn't get to settle for the best return they can get for Lindor.   Giving away assets for less than they are worth is not the way to run a successful business.  

Yeah, I have heard the real estate analogies about you house being worth what someone will pay for it and not what you think it is worth but, frankly, in most of those cases the value people get for their house is closer to what they think it will be the longer they are willing to wait to sell.  Lindor is the same way.   If you trade him for less than he is worth then you are weakening the long-term future competitiveness of this franchise.  

The perception of the Cleveland Indians by the national media is that they will give away Lindor for less than what he should fetch.   That position is even magnified by fans of other teams who propose pathetic, spit-in-your-face, intelligence-insulting packages of castoffs in order to get Lindor to their team using 'Yeah, I think, given how cheap the Indians are, we could get Lindor for this' logic.

So, let's assume that Lindor is going to be traded.  What do we need to make this trade acceptable?     

That's simple.

A young, controllable starting outfielder.  

One strong arm, controllable reliever

One top 10-15 pitching prospect (I say pitching because outfield prospects, which is what I really want, are the most problematic as far as development and you can't have enough pitching).

One Class A outfield prospect, somewhat but not to highly ranked, preferably with good plate discipline as that makes him more projectable to make the major leagues

An example of a trade that would work for me is:

Lindor to the Yankees for Clint Frazier (major league outfielder), Miguel Yajure (pitching prospect), Jonathan Loaisiga (major league, controllable reliever) and Canaan Smith (Class A outfield prospect)

None of these guys are crucial to the Yankees winning in 2021.   None of them represent the top Yankee prospects (as they only have Lindor for one year, ostensibly).    Frazier is better than anyone we have in the outfield (including Josh Naylor who has a greater chance to be a big disappointment than the major league centerpiece of the Mike Clevinger trade should be!).  Loaisiga has had ML success and Yajure, even though still a prospect, has even had a little success in the majors.   Smith has great plate discipline and is showing a little power at low A which may improve as he moves up the ladder and he clearly beefs up a weak minor league OF prospect core from the Indians.   

Not a great haul but a good one.   The point is that this is the BOTTOM of what we should get.   Anything less than this would be giving Lindor away.   So Dolan, Antonneti and Chernoff, you have your marching orders.   Don't make me break out my picket sign!

UPDATE: For Dodgers fans out that here is what I would expect from the Dodgers:  Caleb Ferguson (LH major league reliever with good splits so the 3-batter rule should not impact him greatly), DJ Peters (OF prospect, 2021 ETA), Omar Estevez (MIF prospect 2021 ETA), Edwin Uceta (RHP prospect, 2021 ETA)

 The Dodgers have an excess of young, controllable relievers so Ferguson would be expendable.   Peters, Estevez and Uceta are still in the minors but are close to the majors with all having 2021 ETAs.   None of them are top 10 Dodger prospects so the loss to their farm system would be minimal.    This would help us rebuild more quickly and the Dodgers getting Lindor can help them offset some of the gains the Padres have made this off-season and put them in a prime position to sign Lindor to an extension without him hitting the open market.

Indians top propsects - January 2021 - Who is going to help in the rebuild and when?

 Wow, something we haven't thought about in while:  prospects.  

Well, we better start thinking about them because that's what a rebuild needs.  So this year we are going to do things a little differently, which you do in a rebuild or reloading or whatever this is going to be.  

I am going to list the prospects in order of who will most likely be the most help to the Indians in 2021, who is the best of the next wave (end of 2021, sometime in 2022) and finally, who are the best of the guys 2 or more years away from the majors:

Who will help most in 2021?

1. Triston McKenzie    2. Emmanuel Clase     3. Tyler Freeman    4. Nolan Jones   5. Nick Sandlin

6. Scott Moss  7. Logan Allen (the older)  8. Kyle Nelson 9. Cam Hill  10. Yu Chang  11. Sam Hentges 

12. Bobby Bradley  13. Daniel Johnson  14. Trevor Stephan 15. Jordan Humphreys 

Summary  - Seeing Nolan Jones on this list as #4 is a bit surprising.   But, right now, I see him as a platoon player because he hasn't shown that he can hit lefties...at all.  I think the guys who will impact the team this year may be minor league relievers and middle infielders.  I think these guys may not be the top-rated prospects but will get a chance and are likely to succeed.   I find it interesting that Bobby Bradley didn't even get a taste of the majors this year as the Indians were looking for offense and you would have thought they would have thrown Bradley against the wall to see if he stuck.  But no.  Ditto for Daniel Johnson.   He was a marginal prospect, a Greg Allen-type prospect.   The Indians think he is more but we will see.   I have high hopes for every Cleveland prospect as continued success of our farm system is our only hope right now.  

Who will help most in 2022

1. Eli Morgan  2. Gabe Arias  3. Owen Miller  4. Joey Cantillo 5. Cody Morris  6. Tanner Burns  

7. Juan Hillman  8. Adam Scott 9. Juan Carlos Mejia 10. Kai'i Tom 11. Oscar Gonzalez 12. Luis Oviedo

13. Kirk McCarthy  14. Mason Hickman  15. Bryan Lavatisda  16. Steve Kwan

Summary - This will be the most interesting group.  I think if we have a strong nucleus these guys will fit in as fill-in starters, platoon players, relievers or reserves to help the team win AND keep the payroll down.  There is a lot of talent here and, in the best scenario, we will get some quality major leaguess and maybe occasional all-stars from this group.  Note that I have put Tom and Oviedo on this group at the end.   I think it is likely we will get Tom back but Oviedo is not likely.   If we get him back he should help us sometime in 2022.

Who will help most after 2022

1. George Valera  2. Bo Naylor  3. Ethan Hankins  4. Daniel Espino  5. Carlos Vargas  6. Jose Tena   

6. Carson Tucker  7. Brayan Rocchio  8. Aaron Bracho  9. Allen Hernandez  10. Andres Melendez  

11. Gabriel Rodriguez 12. Yordys Valdez  13. Joe Naranjo  14. Petey Halpin  15. Angel Martinez 

16. 23. Logan Allen  17. Junior Sanquintin  18. Marcos Gonzalez  18. Milan Tolentino  

19. Christian Cairo 20. Lenny Torres  21. Ray Delgado  22. Matt Turner  

 23. Jean Mota   24. Aaron Pinto  25. Richard Palacios  26. Will Bartlett  

27. Will Benson  28. Jose Fermin  29. Korey Holland  30. Jonathon Rodriguez   31. Jordan Brown

32. Skyler Arias  33. Dakody Clemmer  34. Hunter Gaddis  35. Nick Mickolajchak 36.Victor Nova

Summary -   There is a lot to like down here as there is still the aura of star power in some of these gusy and a lot to dream on (Allen Hernandez's age and fastball velocity, Andres Melendez's youth and advanced defensive catching skills).   There are a lot of position players who have potential if they can learn to hit and a lot of the pitchers who have closer, setup man potential and a few potential starting pitchers to dream on.

In short, this rebuild will not be painless.   However, unlike so many teams that are veteran heavy and prospect poor, the rebuild, with a little luck, should be short and we shouldn't have to endure a long stretch of losing seasons. 

This is a franchise-definining moment!

 Anybody who reads this blog likely knows that what I am about to say is true.  

How we handle Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco going forward will define this franchise.   Period.

You can't halfway rebuild because you become halfway competitive.   

Either compete or rebuild.   We no longer are in a position to compete AND rebuild if we trade Lindor and Carrasco.

I don't even think we are in a position to compete if we keep Carrasco and trade Lindor, unless the return for Lindor is eye-popping.

So, let's discuss the rebuild.  First, let's put a timeline on it. We will need at least 3 years to rebuild this team which may coincide with when our division weakens up again.  So any asset that we currently have who is unlikely to be around in 2024 AND has real trade value is fair game to be traded.

Our tradeable assets are:

Shane Beiber - Mr. Cy Young could net a hefty return, enough to really jump start the rebuild.  In theory he will be here through 2024.  If we can add a year by renegotiating his contract to give us one of his free agent years then it is worth keeping him for the first two competitive years at the end of the rebuild.  If he is only here in 2024 then he becomes Lindor.   BTW, he is arbitration eligible next winter so, with a season in 2021 that nets another Cy Young, his 3 arbitration years might be too expensive for Cleveland. 

Francisco Lindor - Already discussed.  Not against trading him, just not for trading him for a bag of magic beans.

Carlos Carrasco - Again, get value for him that really helps the rebuild and I am on board.

Jose Ramirez - Mr. almost MVP is, like Beiber, worthless to this team in a rebuild if he won't be around when we come out of that rebuild.  However, he is extremely valuable to other teams.   He is only signed through 2022 and that last year is for $21 million. So, in a rebuild, he is out the door this winter but should net good players/prospects to help in the rebuild

Aside from those 4 there is likely no player on this roster who would fetch in trade as much as he is worth to this team over the next 5 years. 

So, that's the deal.   If you are going to trade Lindor you might as well trade Carrasco, Ramirez and Shane Bieber.   None will be around when we come out of this rebuild.   So they are not fan favorites or key pieces to competing.   They are just assets that should be traded to help our next wave of competitiveness.

So if you trade Lindor, let the rebuild begin....NOW.  Don't try to snow the fans into thinking this compete and plan for the future crap is going to work any more.  Teams are spending money.   We are not.   Last year and the year before showed how screwed we are because we won't pay for players we need to put us over the top.   Stop the tantalizing and come to grips with the reality of cash-strapped ownership.  

Wow, two months really flew by!

My brother texted me today and asked why I hadn't posted in a while.  I told him I was saving up my anger and keystrokes for when the Indians made a pathetic trade for Francisco Lindor.

But, what the heck, lets start typing now.

Trading Adam Cimber - This was a sign the Indians are going in the right direction.   Cimber is a gimmick guy and give me a hard thrower or even strike thrower any time rather than a gimmick guy.  Anyone know Josh Tomlin's phone number? 

Not picking up Brad Hand's option - Only one reason that I can see doing this.   If we couldn't trade Hand.   Picking up his option and then trading him before the season starts is the only thing that made sense here.   Yeah, you might get stuck with him but it isn't like he is Adam Cimber.   Hand was just named to the ML allstar team for the year.  Yeah, I don't know if I would trust him for another season as the closer.  I could smell a meltdown.   However, he had a great year.   Even if you picked up $4 million of his salarey (actually only cost you 3 because of the $1 million buyout) you could have gotten SOMETHNG for him.   Bonehead move by the Indians.

Not picking up Santana's option - This was a no-brainer.   They weren't paying him $17.5 million or even $7.5 million.   Good luck with the Royals!  I am sure he will have a good season again, but it wasn't worth the gamble.

Non-tendering Naquin and DeShields -  This is another sign the Indians are being financially prudent and going in the right direction.  Look, none of these guys were worth the money they would have made. 

Having Ka'ai Tom and Luis Oviedo picked in the Rule 5 draft - What can you say?  This happens to the Indians every year, it seems.  For every Anthony Santander there is a Jordan Milbrath.  You lose some and you get some of them back.   You do have to ask yourself, however, why not just DFA DeShields and Naquin if you knew you were going to non-tender them.  Then put Tom and Oviedo on the roster.  Note:  Oviedo is pitching well in winter ball.   The last guy we lost in the Rule 5 who was pitching well in winter ball at the time was Hector Rondon.   One final thought about the Rule 5 draft: If you look at all the guys the Indians have LOST in the Rule 5 draft and you look at all the success stories that the Indians have had drafting in the Rule 5 draft one thing stands out.  THE INDIANS SUCK AT THE RULE 5 DRAFT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Francisco Lindor trade -  OK, so this one hasn't happened.  But one trade like this HAS happened already.  And it was doubly bad.   Lance Lynn got traded to the White Sox.  Not only is that bad for the Indians in 2021 it is also bad for the Indians in terms of trading Lindor.   Basically, what the Rangers got for Lynn is what we can expect for Lindor: One prospect who will be in Cleveland's top 10 and one who likely will be somewhere in their top 30 or 40 prospects.   Basically, we will get very little for Lindor.   That's what the Lance Lynn trade tells us and that sucks eggs, big time!!!!!!.   Maybe we can wait and trade him after Christmas so it doesn't ruin the holidays of Indians' fans.

The umpteenth don't trade Lindor post

 It really makes me roll my eyes when I hear a local writer (or two...or more) spout that Lindor will be traded this winter.

It all makes too much sense to me.

Now, if they said "Expect, if the Tribe get the offer they want, that they will trade Lindor this winter"

But what they are saying, in essence, is "Expect the Tribe to take the best offer for Lindor, irrespective of whether it is a good offer, just to save money or get stuck paying Lindor's salary next season."

You see, when you set low expectations you are bound to meet them.

Once Lindor is traded expect those same writers to say, in order:

• The Tribe really worked the trade market but this was the best they could get for Lindor
• With the season he had last year, his value was really down and so the FO did the best they could in a bad situation.
• What do you think we would have gotten for him if we waited until August?  Probably less than what we got now.
• Stay used to it, fans.   It's what happens when Tribe superstars get close to free agency

Expect maybe a top 10 prospect from some other organization (maybe the 7th best prospect or so), an overpaid veteran to balance out his salary, a low A fireballer who barely makes his team's top 20 prospects and another minor leaguer who is a college player with low upside but gaudy stats in the low minors who everyone knows is really not a prospect (thus not being a top prospect in the organization).

Look what we got for Bauer: Reyes, Logan Allen and Scott Moss.   Despite what people may say about Allen and Moss, it is more than likely that neither of them ever helps the Indians.  So maybe we got Reyes.

Look what we got for Clevinger.   Unless the Tribe's pitching magicians can get more out of Quantrill than what I think is there, he is a 5th starter, setup guy as his upside.   Naylor may or may not be anything.  Look at Luplow in his career.   Turn him around at the plate and that is likely to be Naylor.  Plus the minor leaguers are really questionable in my opinion.   

Now imagine what we get for a year of Lindor?  I think a year of Lindor and a compensation round pick is better than what this FO can do in a trade.  So the best trade is NO trade

Fans get mad, Dolan saves money, FO spins the guys we got back as really good additions to the organization.  Same old, same old.

So don't trade the guy because what you will get back is less than Lindor's one year value to this team and that compensation draft pick when he leaves.

That's the thing, right.  Make the best trade, even and ESPECIALLY if it is no trade.

So, as a counterpoint, let's change that narrative.

The Indians are a playoff contender with Lindor next year.   Without him and with the loss of Santana and maybe Hand, they are NOT a contender.  Maybe barely a .500 team or (gasp!) with an injury or two a below .500 team.  That "Let's go for mediocrity" narrative doesn't play well if you can't be above .500, does it?  I mean, even this year if we played a full schedule there is a better than average chance we would have been a below .500 team.

Plus, assuming fans are allowed to attend games next year, Lindor puts butts in the seats more than any other player not named Beiber.

Plus part deux, Lindor HAS to have a better season next year as he approaches free agency.   

So we keep the face of the franchise for another year.  Whether he likes it here or not, he is contractually obligated to play for the Tribe.   If he sucks he hurts his free agent value next winter.

Plus we are a little more competitive and all of us go to our graves knowing we got to see Lindor for as long (or almost as long if he is traded in August) as we could have, being fans of the Cleveland Tribe.

What Now?

 OK, we've become the Minnesota Twins South.  

Observations about the season and the series:

1. Sandy Alomar is not that good a manager.   Not that he is bad but he is just not playoff ready...yet.  Maybe someday but not yet.   The only really smart move he made was pinchhitting Luplow for Naylor and, fortunately it worked.   Other than that, he managed like a second division manager.   Karinchak, as much as I love his stuff, was the WRONG guy in that situation.   Not that we had anyone better, but he was just not suited in any way to come in at that point.  Carrasco should have been allowed to see if he could have cleaned up his mess.  Not hindsight, I was screaming this into my computer at the time.

2. Lindor, Santana??? What can you say?  Their seasons are puzzling (more later on this)

3. Why 3 catchers on the roster?   There is never any reason for that when none of them can hit. 

4.  Did we not have Domingo Santana?  If we did, he should have been on the roster for that last out situation in the 9th.   It was almost comical and embarassing that we sent Austin I-can't-outhit-a-pitcher Hedges for that final at bat.  Bad roster building if Hedges is EVER the best hitter you can send to the plate unless your bench is empty...and then I let a pitcher hit.

5. You can easily make a case that Bieber was not the same pitcher after his 118 pitch outing.   The same can be said for Civale after his complete game.

If either of them end up hurt or pitching bad next year someone should get fired.

6. On a first division team with reasonable talent, Delino DeShields Jr. would be on a second division team (their is a Yogi Berra-ism in there somewhere).  He was pathetic.   It looked like after he got hurt he was scared of the wall.   I mean, he played worse than an a AA centerfielder.   He was truly bad and his arm was, at the end of the season, a real rag arm.  The only reason he was even in the lineup is that he actually could hit over .200 AND because of his undeserved defensive reputation.

6. I have said this before but I will end this section with this: This is the best you will ever get from the Indians until they start spending in free agency or making smart trade deadline deals.  The result was due to us not having enough hitting or solid bullpen arms.   Above mediocrity level but totally frustrating.   

What SHOULD lie ahead (and what will)

Francisco Lindor - What should happen: Because he had such a mediocre season, we should keep him this winter.   Look, he lost a LOT of his tradeability when he tanked it the way he did this year, especially the tank (not his first time) in the playoffs.  He has one year left on his contract, had a sucky season with some really questionable play and mental decisions.   His value is down which would make him a real bargain in a trade...and meaning the Indians won't get good value for him.   The pro-FO people will say, after a return that makes the Clevinger trade look like a gold mine, "What did you expect to get for him?" So here is the case for keeping him.   His value is down.   His value is down.  And, of course, his value is down.  Wacky baserunning, terrible hitting with runners on base and some questionable defensive plays really hurt...wait for it...his value.

A whole season of Lindor and a sandwich draft pick is better than ANY return we will get for him after this tanked 2020 season and with our FO, who will be under pressure to dump him.   I think every season ticket holder should have the option of getting their money immediately refunded if the Indians trade Lindor this winter or next season.   Really, make it part of the season ticket contract...now.

What SHOULD happen:  We keep Lindor and make him play out his last year giving everything he has for US rather than for someone else.   We won't get good value for him.  Antonneti has not shown he can get good value in the trade with his highwater mark being the questionable Clevinger trade.

What will happen: The FO, under pressure from the owner, will dump Lindor to the highest lowball bidder and we will make comments about how some third rate prospect is a hidden gem.

Carlos Santana - Unfortunately he played himself off this team.   The only way he comes back is if he plays for a $6 million one year deal.

What should happen: We let him go to FA and offer him a $6 million deal and he takes it because he is so embarassed at this pathetic performance this year.

What will happen: He will have a bounceback year next year on a one year deal...for someone else.

Roberto Perez - You think deciding to keep Lindor is our biggest decision?   Think again.   Perez knows these pitchers but he has been hurt a lot and it is not clear if he can hit any more.

What should happen - We pick up his option

What will happen - We will let him go and keep Sandy Leon and Austin Hedges just to save $5 million.

Winter trades/FA signings - So what will we do this winter?

We need players and teams will not be wanting to spend this winter after their financial losses.  Teams may also be trying to dump their overpriced, underperforming players.

What we should do: Sign a couple of FA OF bats and a couple of relievers.  

What we will do: Nothing positive.   

What will happen this winter: We will get worse.   We will play over .500 ball, just barely, and do nothing at the deadline and miss the playoffs by a lot.

Just sayin!

Everything inside of me...

 Frist, I wanted to say congratulations to the Cleveland Indians.   I don't know what would have happened in a 162 game schedule but in the 60 game schedule, they would have made the playoffs even if only 6 teams were taken to the playoffs in each league, which is the case every other year.

But....

Of all the matchups they could have had, this is the one that scares me the most.   

In game 1 they will be facing one of the best pitchers in baseball not named Shane Bieber AND, in game 2, another excellent pitcher who has given them fits in the past and, especially, in the playoffs.  

Plus, on paper the Yankees have a much better batting order than do the Indians.  And, on paper, it isn't even close. 

Everything inside of me tells me that we don't have a chance in this series because, as good as Bieber, Carrasco and Plesac are, the best they can do is put up zeros and the most likely thing, in the first two games, that Indians' batters will do is also put up zeros.

All it will take is one mistake by Bieber and one by Carrasco and the Indians' batters will fold like a house of cards in a windstorm.

Cole's statistics with his catcher on Tuesday (1.00 ERA) are more impressive than Bieber's stats.  Plus Bieber had that recent 118 pitch game.   Now, does that necessarily mean it will impact his start tomorrow?  No, it doesn't.   But everything inside of me tells me that that game will have just enough impact on him that he will make that one mistake or two mistakes and, with Cole and the Indians offense, that will be enough.

In game 2 we will be going with Carrasco, which I think is the right choice.  And Carrasco will likely be very good.   However, my gut tells me he will make a mistake or two and we won't be able to touch Tanaka.

Plus Ramirez has not been the best in the post-season and Lindor doesn't look like he will turn his season around.  And the rest of the offense and, recently, the defense and the base running, has been AAA level, at best.

So, my gut tells me we will lose in a numbing two game sweep to the Yankees and all of us will be left with the same questions and frustration we had over the winter and at the trade deadline: the FO knew we needed more outfielders and, generally, more offensive production, and they didn't get it for us.  

Everything inside of me tells me this is what is going to happen and that it is going to be bad and frustrating and ugly and a little angering as we will get down and won't show any fight to get back in either game and lose by scores of 6-1 and 10-2, going down without any fight in us at all.

But what if Lindor finds a way to put his foot on the gas?  What if Ramirez has matured enough to just take what the game gives him instead of trying to hit 5-run HRs?   What if Santana has found that spark that he missed all year and Reyes runs into enough pitches that he deposits over the fence to negate the Yankees power?  What if Hernandez is even better than he has been?  And what if the rest of the guys find a way to just match the bottom of the Yankees order?  And what if we get out of our defensive and baserunning funk and find a way to play flawless, fundamental baseball?  

And what if, against the odds, Bieber and the batters find a way to best Cole and his batters and Carrasco stands strong and Tanaka shows he is human against the Indians?

What if, this time, it is the Indians who sweep and go into the next round against the Rays?  What if they are built more to beat Tampa Bay and actually do it?   What if they get to the ALCS and are facing the White Sox and what they did in the last series with them is what happens again?   What if they get to the World Series in a year what they hadthe equivalent of a 22 game losing steak in a regular-length season?

What if they get to the World Series and, against all odds, pull a Dodgers vs Athletics 1984 thing and do to the Dodgers what they did to the Athletics that year?

What if this is their year?   What if it is the Indians year for a change?  It's not what everything inside me THINKS will happen, it is what everything inside of me HOPES and WiLLS to happen.  And what better time to turn baseball history on its ear than in this pandemic-warped season.  So, with every sinew of hope and will in my body I am going to be rooting for them to do what looks impossible, knowing that, just below the surface of what we have seen this year is a team that can do it.   A team that WILL do it!  

Good luck Indians!! God's speed!

This can work!!!!!

 First, let me apologize.   When I said we weren't making the playoffs I forgot that Houston was actually the SECOND place team in the West, meaning no matter what their record was, it didn't impact the 3rd place, wildcard-bound Indians.

So, yes, the Indians are likely to make the playoffs and maybe even finish with another above .500 record if they take one of four from the White Sox and 2 of 3 from the Pirates.   Still, looking at 31-29 being their likely finish with a ceiling of 32-28 and a floor of 29-31.   Likely any of those will make the playoffs although it is not guaranteed.

So, why am I smiling when saying that our expectations are, from 26-15 to finish on possibly a 3-16 note?  

With some luck we might get through the first round of the playoffs and here is how we can do it.

Starter-Karinchak-Hand

All we have to do is have Bieber and Plesac go 7 shutout innings each and have Karinchak and Hand throw clean, shutout innings.   We don't need it for a month.   We don't need it for a week.  We just need it for two games.  We don't need Perez, we don't need Wittgren, we don't need Maton, we don't need Quantrill, we don't need Hill.   We don't need anyone who is likely to give up a run, which is all of these guys in the playoffs.  We won't need Carrasco and we won't need McKenzie, even though I would prepare the latter for the bullpen just in case we need him in a short stint if we have to go to Karinchak and Hand too often.

All we need is our starter and these two relievers.  

Can we do it against the White Sox?  Not likely as they know us too well.

But maybe we can do it against Tampa Bay, who haven't seen our guys this year.

All we have to do is pitch.

And find a way to score a couple of runs each game during regulation!.  A couple of 2 to zeros and we are onto round 2.  

I can dream, can't I?

How F'ing stupid can you be?

 Here's tonight's riddle:

What has two legs and can find a way to screw up a 10-0 lead and possibly destroy the rest of this season and next year and waste the most important sports resource in Cleveland sports and one of the most important in baseball.

Answer: Sandy Alomar

How in the world, with a 10-0 lead and Beiber at 93 pitches do you send him out for the 8th inning?  

He ends up close to 120 pitches, a territory he may never have come close to in the past.   

And for what?

This was pathetic.   Clearly this game is going to impact Beiber's performance sometime in his career.   This takes a toll on a pitcher's body.   It might not be acute but it clearly can be additive to other insults to his body from pitching.

So if Beiber ends up missing time on the DL this year or next year or the year after that, you can clearly look back on this game as a catalyst that hastened whatever injury he might have.

And to make matters worse this negatively impacted his season ERA when we are trying to build a Cy Young resume for this guy.

It was pathetic.

Most important sports resource in Cleveland.

And now he might have been damaged...and for nothing.

Alomar should be ashamed of himself.

Truly ashamed of himself.

Probably the only way to ruin tonight was to run Beiber into the ground.  

We are not making the playoffs!

 Shock value enough for everyone?

The stat heads had us with a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs after the weekend.  I agreed with that as it looks like all the teams with over .500 records were going to make the playoffs in the AL and we were are 26-15 after Monday meaning that could go 5-14 for the rest of the season and still finish 31-29. I figured we would go at least 2-1 against the Royals and then find a way to win 6-10 the rest of the way and 34-28 would have been a lock for the playoffs.  

It all looked so easy although I had trepidation that it would be a 2-and-done in the playoffs as we weren't scoring runs. 

But still we were going to be above .500  AGAIN and make the playoffs.

Now, I don't know if we will be above .500.

Look, we are 26-19.   We have two more games (and likely two more losses) against the Twins and then we go to Chicago to play the Cubs.  That's likely two more losses.  That puts us at 26-23.

Then we go to Detroit after having lost 8 in a row and play 4 against the Tigers.

Let's assume we split those 4, making us 28-25.

Then we come home and end the season with 4 against the White Sox.   Let's say we go 1-3 as the Sox are playing well and we suck.  Now we are 29-28.   We then finish the season with 3 against the Pirates.   Let's say we go 2-1 in those games.   That makes us 31-29.  

Still, that's 2 games over .500, right?   Well, here's the problem with that.   Here are the teams we are fighting with for wildcard spots:

The Yankees are 24-21.  They finish with the Orioles, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Marlins.   This could go either way for them but let's assume they go 7-8 the rest of the way, giving them the same record as us.

The Astros are 22-23.  They have 2 tough ones against the Dodgers this weekend but after that they play nothing but teams that are below .500 and out of their playoff races.   Let's assume they lose 2 to the Dodgers but go 9-6 the rest of the way, which is conservative.  That puts them at 31-29.   

Look, it's likely that the Yankees do better then 7-8 and it likely that the Astros do better than 9-6 (after the Dodgers).   If both of those things happen we are NOT going to make the playoffs.

We will have gone 5-14 at the end of the season (mostly after the trade deadline) if things work out the way I think they will.   We will have done this, essentially, in the period after we got rid of Clevinger and got NOTHING that will help us this year and very little that will help us next year in trading Clevinger.   We would have thrown away the entire season, wasted every dollar we spent and got nothing to make us think that next year will be any better.

So, once again, we will have kept our heads slightly above mediocrity for the nth year in a row but still not had a good team because we wouldn't pull the trigger on a deal that could help.   The last time we had a chance we got just what we needed, Andrew Miller.  We know how that turned out in 2016.    

Here is an eye-opener for the Indians brass.   Being slightly above mediocrity is not the goal.   Every year we do that it just wastes EVERY dollar you spend.   EVERY dollar.   No one in this town or in baseball cares about being slightly better than mediocre and, frankly, your juggling act designed to just keep our heads above water and your boasting of how we have so many years of being over .500 and having one of the best records in baseball over the past few years has worn thin with this fan.  Yeah, you are great at avoiding a rebuild, great.  Just lets play above .500 ball and watch our good players get out of town for very little return and hope that our player development people can keep pulling rabbits out of their hats to keep us slightly above .500.

You had a chance to go for it this year and you choked.   When we traded Sabathia we got, essentially, one player back, Brantley.   Thus we treaded water there.   When we traded Cliff Lee we got, essentially, one player back: Carlos Carrasco.  Treading water again.   When we traded Trevor Bauer we got one player back, Franmil Reyes.   Again, treading water.   With Clevinger I don't know, looking at the guys we got back, how we can expect more than one of them to make any noise in the future, if that.   This was not a Bartolo Colon trade where we got Lee, Phillips and Sizemore.   This was just another trade that, at best, will help us tread water and at a time when were primed to make a deep run in the playoffs if we just got some hitting

You know the most comical thing about this?   The Padres traded Oliveras to the Royals for a middle reliever, Trevor Rosenthal.   Oliveras in this series had more hits than the entire Cleveland outfield did.  So we didn't even get the one guy who was traded by the Padres that we needed.   Is that pathetic?  Yes, it is.

Wow!

 Time to abandon ship.   This team stinks.  They are a bunch of losers run by a loser manager, supported by a GM afraid to make a deal to win this year who is afraid of a cheap owner who shouldn't own a major league chess team let alone a major league baseball team.

OK, phew.   I'm glad I got that off my chest.

But, really, people!  WTF!!!

I harken back to 1997 when we finished 86-75, frustrating all of us almost every day when we KNEW we were so much better than any time in the AL Central and, maybe, in the entirety of the American League... but we played mediocre ball for most of the regular season, only winning our division and getting to the playoffs because our division sucked so bad.  

I was frustrated with this team almost every night that year.   They acted like they didn't care.  

So, thinking back to 1997 and how that was and then coming back to think about the game tonight I only have one thing to say.

WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stuff needs to change.    Lindor is pathetic as a #3 hitter.   Give up the experiment!  Lindor leads off.  NOW!

What could happen?  We score fewer than 0 runs!

Lineup should be: Lindor, Henandez, Santana, Reyes, Naquin, Thirdbaseman, left fielder, Perez, DeShields.

It is desperation time with this lineup.  Hernandez doesn't steal bases but he handles the bat well.   Maybe we get something started at the top of the order.  

The Kyle Nelson experiment worked so badly tonight that I worry about bringing up Jefry Rodriguez or Nick Sanlin or anyone else.   I KNOW deep in my heart that Nolan Jones isn't ready.   I know it.  Right now his splits make him look like a platoon hitter in the majors, if he ever gets there.   He isn't ready.  But we need a spark of some kind and we weren't given one at the trade deadline so what choice do we have?   I mean, could he hit worse than Yu Chang?  Or maybe we bring up Owen Miller?  

And for the trip down to Lake County fixing any of the hitters?  Look at Oscar Mercado.  The same lost hitter he was when he went down there.   Hitting help from any guys we have banished to Lake County?  Fogetaboudit!

Maybe bting up Tyler Freeman?  Hey, he may pull an Albert Pujols and never leave after only having played A ball!

This team is a mess.   Ownership has dealt us this hand.   Francona doesn't look like he will be back any time soon.  Don't think that it is out of the question that we won't make the playoffs.   It is a real possibility, especially after tonight.  If that clubhouse wasn't trashed by the players out of anger tonight...  People, not us, but the players, should be pissed.   They should be but are they?  Do they care but are in an incredibly bad stretch where they couldn't beat their team at Lake County?  Or are they just coasting like the '97 team?  If it's the latter, wake me up on Sept. 28th.  This pathetic display is too hard to watch right now.

What's up with Lindor

 If you read this site you know I have questioned whether Francisco Lindor was having fun.   

I still believe that is an issue with him today but others would likely point to how his hitting has gotten better and how his looking more like the leader-by-actions we have seen in the past.

However, what I have seen the last couple of days is shocking and no one appears to be talking about it.

In the last two games he has made, to my eyes, four gaffes that are very, very, not like him.

On Sunday he whiffed on a double play ball, appearing to shy away from second base and making a really awkward throw the first base that was way late on what should have been a double play.  It looked bad and awkward and as far from the standard quality of his defense as I can imagine.   

So, one mistake.  Everybody can make a mistake, right?

Then, later in the game he made another un=Lindor like mistake.  Running on Santana's apparent douible to the gap he appeared to get deeked by secondbaseman into thinking the ball was caught and then forgot that he had to touch second again after starting an aborted retreat to first base when he saw the ball wasn't caught.  You could see his mind working in slow motion and he STILL screwed it up.

So, everyone has a bad night, right?

Then tonight it happened again.

First, after Deshields turned a pop fly into a single the Indians still had a chance to get Nicky Lopez at second base, even with rag-arm Deshields' throw.  However, as the throw came in from centerfield there was Lindor, taking that throw with his back to second base, about a foot toward centerfield.  Now, I know just enough about baseball to know that the infielder should be taking that throw with his body facing the runner so that he can see if the runner is changing his slide.   Well, Lindor tried to turn to tag Lopez but Lopez was able to slide around him.  For those who forget, McKenzie then walks Gallagher and then Merrifield hits the HR.  If Lindor makes that tag it changes the whole complexion of the inning and maybe even the game as Mckenzie has to make more pitches than he should have.

What the hell, Franciso?  Get your head out of your butt!

Then, in the 7th, Lindor ranged toward first base in his shift and fielded a ball and tried to flip it from his glove to Santana at first, but he muffed that attempt, too.  Santana got charged with the error and I am not saying it was an easy play but, guys, we are talking about Francisco Freakin' Lindor here.   That play should have been made.  That play, or lack thereof, was instrumental in the two (unearned) runs that gave KC the lead.

So, Mr. Sunshine is looking more like Eeyore the last two games.   Even when he does something good (better hitting) things get all rain-cloud for him as he screws up in ways that are so unlike the guy I have seen for years it evokes the thought in me that maybe Invasion of the Body Snatchers was not science fiction and that there is really someone else inside of Lindor's body controlling his actions.

Because, folks, what we have seen the last couple of days won't cut it.  He just has to be better than that and I can't explain why he isn't. 

Which brings me to my conclusion statement:  WHAT THE F@#$ IS GOING ON HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Vent #4

 Conspiracy theories.  Oh my, aren't they fun!  Fluorides in the drinking water to rot our brains.   Immunizations so the CIA can track us.  

Well here is my Cleveland Indians version of a conspiracy theory:

Austin Hedges is a great catcher.   Maybe as good as Roberto Perez.   Austin Hedges  cost $3 million this year.   Let's say that arbitration says that a catcher with a .199 lifetime average is worth $3.5 million next year.  Letting Perez walk will save this team $1.5 million or more next year and roughly $3.5 million in 2022.  Lots of savings there.

Carlos Santana would make $17.5 million next year.   Assuming we are done with Jake Bauers, moving Naylor to first base to replace Santana saves us $16.5 million next year with buyouts.

Brad Hand is scheduled to make $10 million next year.   Sliding Quantrill into Karinchak's spot and sliding Karinchak to closer and not picking up Hand's option saves us $8.5 million with buyouts.

By my calculation that's a savings of $26.5 million if we just substitute the guys we got in trades for the veterans already here AND we get more players who are a lot cheaper for longer (actual situation rather than saying players with more years of control).

So, could it be that we got these three specific major leaguers targeting guys we plan not to re-sign this winter?  

Vent #3

 Chemistry.

Some people say it is overrated in the me-first era of professional sports.  

I don't know.

But I will say this: if any of this deal was made for chemistry reasons it certainly didn't appear that it jolted the Indians into an offensive frenzy last night.

As I said, the Indians started last night 0-0 in my mind.   

After last night, with their best starter going against the worst team in the AL Central, the Indians couldn't even score 2 runs and lost.

They are now 0-1.

The players who thought that addition by subtraction of Clevinger would invigorate this team better show some invigoration.

The players who thought it was a bad trade better get over it.   They are being paid a lot of money to play a kids game and if they had done THEIR job last night, we would be 1-0 post-Clevinger.

Lots of teams have made up from bad front office decisions and I can think of about a dozen in recent Indians' history, many in very recent years where we were putting up the best record in baseball.

No excuses.   The FO didn't get us what we needed.  They made it harder on the pitching staff.

So what?

Do your freakin' job!

Make up for their incompetence!

Vent #2

 Yes, I really do think the Indians had enough to win the WS this year IF they just got more hitting.  Look at the lineups the Indians have carved up this year.   

It doesn't make sense because the Astros are the Astros and other teams have as good or better a chance than do the Indians.  We would have needed two quality bats: one for CF and one for LF to be able to truly compete for a WS title this year.   Obviously the phrase that anything can happen if you make the playoffs is true.  IF Clevinger had returned to his ace-like self we would have likely won our first two series and been in good shape to win the AL title and even the WS.   So three IFS and the reality, at least Antonetti's and Dolan's reality, is that there were no bats we could afford (in dollars and prospects) who would have helped us enough to make us a REAL WS threat.  

So there you have it.   The Indians needed what they couldn't, apparently, get: a cheap, great outfielder who can hit for average and power who was controllable for 3 years (or a couple of rentals like Starling Marte and Jonathon Villar).

So why trade Clevinger?  If it was about that $4 million increase in salary he would have gotten next year it is, as I and others have now said, very telling.  What happens this winter?  What happens when Bieber and Civale, et al, become arbitration eligible?  We dump them in Von Hayes-like trades, also?

I get the long-term competitive thing, I really do.  However, just like the '94 Indians, when you see the window you have to spend, at least somewhat, to climb through it before it closes.

The Indians didn't...and they won't.   It is time for Dolan to sell the team.   It really is.   If he thinks a football town will put up with above .500 records, with an occasional first round play-three-and-head-to-the-sea first round exit, he is sadly mistaken.   If Antonetti thinks this is a mental exercise where he tries to see how much he can do with very little, then he doesn't get the Cleveland mindset.   Clevelanders don't just want teams that are a little above the mean, they want winners.   And winners are much more than a little above the mean and they do their best to stay THERE, not regress towards the mean or camp out just above it.

So, Dolan and Antonneti, you guys need to realize that none of us will put up with this veiled attempt to look competitive fueled by an aberration of a draft year and a few trades that created a Frankenstein of the rotation.  We want you, once you get to where you see the brass ring, to buy a stool, get on it and get that ring.  Hey if you have to trade some of your starting pitching to get some hitting well, don't worry, those of us from the '70s and '80s are used to that and won't blink.

 

Vent #1

 OK, let's hope this is the only one in this series.

Antonetti - "Acquiring established major-league players was not easy to do at this trade deadline"

Nosco response - I am calling BS on this one.  Really? There were a number of guys who would have cost very little who were better than Naylor.  Starling Marte comes to mind immediately.  Jonathon Villar is another who comes to mind

Antonetti - "Cal Quantrill is currently a really successful major-league reliever" - 

Nosco: Really?  You are an analytics guy, right?  Have you heard the term small sample size used before?

Antonetti - "One of our objectives is to build a sustainably competitive team,"

Nosco: Really?  Have you looked at your big board?  Here is when you will be losing players"

If you don't pick up expensive options here is what you lose going forward:

• You have no first baseman after this year - and no obvious replacement in the minors
• You have no SS after next year - and no obvious replacement in the minors
• You have no 3B after next year - Nolan Jones, is the replacement and looks like a platoon level plaher
• You have no catcher after this year - No obvious replacement in the minors
• You have no second baseman after this year - No obvious replacement in the minors for next year

So, without picking up options you lose 3/5 of your infield after this year and all of it after next year.  No obvious replacement for your catcher, second baseman or first baseman next year, no obvious replacement if you trade Lindor this winter.

Obviously you have your outfield intact for years...but that's not really a positive, is it?.  

What about the pitching?  If you don't pick up options:

• You lose your closer after this year
• You lose Oliver Perez after this year

How, with no guys in the minors ready to become good ML players, let alone true replacements, production-wise, for the guys we are losing. how do you call that trying to remain competitive?  

So, Mr. Antonnetti, I am calling BS on you and your staff because even if the guys you got today reach their potential they will either reach it too late to help the current Cleveland players, level off at the replacement player level or never reach their potential at all, leaving us with nothing in a few years and we will look at lot like the Pirates do now.  

Thoughts

• You realize teams were actually making trades today to help themselves win this year, right?
• The really depressing thing about today is what Terry Pluto has written about already:

The Indians traded Clevinger away, in part, so they wouldn't have to pay him the $4-5 million raise he was going to get in arbitration this year.  I laughed when I read that in Pluto's column because what team in their right mind would trade away a quality starting pitcher when they were primed to go to the World Series over a $4 million, chump change level raise?   Hmmm, I think we know.

• The major problem is not the trade but what it signals: That the Indians will do whatever they can to cut cost.   Hand is gone because we have Karinchak.   Lindor is gone because he makes too much money.   Santana is gone because they won't put up his $17.5 million option and now they have Naylor to play first base.  If we don't get a lot for Lindor then this team will be too weak to compete next year because Santana and Hand will walk for free.
• I wonder if Oliver Perez feels good about all this.   His chances of winning the WS this year just took a big hit.  Plus just when he thought he could stick out his tongue and sing nah-nah-nah-nah-nah-nah-nah-nah hey-hey-hey goodbye, Clevinger is replaced on the roster by Plesac.
• The guy who should be with the Indians, Whit Merrifield, will be playing against them this evening.  I would really like to know what the Royals were asking the Indians for so we could get Merrifield.  
• If we still had Anthony Santander this trade today would have made more sense.  40-man roster management is key for a team like the Indians.
• It's not hard to figure out which contender was the bigger loser for 2020 at this deadline.   Remember, contender and loser in the current season!  That would be the Cleveland Indians.   
• Supporters of the trade say that we should wait for a few years to see how it turns out.    By the time we know what these prospects will be the current team will be long gone and outside of these trades, there are no dominant hitters or pitchers in the relatively weak Indians' system.   Today's trade didn't change that at all.

Today was depressing, not because Clevinger was traded.  It was depressing because we didn't get anything back that will alter the downward spiral that the Indians are about to experience.

Von Hayes, where are you when we need you?

 Mike Clevinger, Greg Allen and Matt Waldron going to San Diego

Well, Clevinger has the look of a California guy so he should fit right into the California lifestyle

Allen is a San Diego native and given the logjam in Cleveland and the fact that his hometown Padres are competing for its first playoff berth in, well, like forever, he should be ecstatic.

Waldron is a potential middle reliever and, given the Indians ability to find middle reliever late in the draft should not be considered just a throw-in.

But most of us don't really care about who is leaving, we care about who is coming back, right?  The Indians are competing this year but also are looking for ways to stay competitive in future years.   Clevinger would have helped that as we had him for two more years after this year.  So let's look at the guys we got back to see if they help us now and in the future.

First, with an eye on the playoffs, the first round is best of 3.   Historically you can get by with 3 starters in the playoffs if everyone pitches on short rest and your really only need 4 starters. Since we have Beiber, Civale, Carrasco and Plesac we should be good, right?   Throw in McKenzie as the 5th starter for the rest of the season and we should be good for at least a couple of year with Plutko in the bullopen.  

So if you believe Carrasco is on the right track now and Plesac comes back to his pre-Chicago-night-out form, we are among the best in baseball.    If you believe that.

So, progressing like we do believe that, here are my thoughts on the guys we got back:

Josh Naylor - Since we have his brother Bo, we have cornered the market on the baseball Naylors, I guess.   Unfortunately he is not a great fielder and not a great hitter in the majors, so far.   If we expect him to step in and give us anywhere close to what Reyes gives us we are dreaming, at least for this year.   The best I can say is that his offense is likely an improvement over our left field platoon so there is an incremental upgrade to our offense.  But this part of the deal does smell like the Jake Bauers trade to me.

Cal Quantrill - He is an intriguing guy...as a reliever.   To give you an idea of his prospect status as a starter, however, in 2018 Logan Allen was the Padres #9 prospect...Quantrill was #11.   So we got this guy as a reliever because a polished college starter who was going to be a quality major league starter would NOT have a 4.67 ERA in the minors, even with ballpark factoring taken into account.  

Austin Hedges - So we got probably the best defensive catcher in baseball.   We already had the best defensive catcher in the American League.   So now we have the best catching duo in baseball....BY FAR.   This will help the pitching staff as no matter who catches we should have great defense.   But, really, was Sandy Leon that bad that we needed an upgrade at backup catcher?  Not really.  I see this part of the trade as not really moving the needle on what we really need: offense.

Then there are the prospects:

As of May this year MLB had SS Gabe Arias, LHP Joey Cantillo and SS/2B Owen Miller as the #7,9 and 11 prospects in the Padres organization.   So, not a terrible return in prospects but (a) none of these guys is likely to help us this year and (b) two of them are middle infielders in an organization where we have plenty of middle infield prospects.  Plus none of these guys will help the team in 2020 and are unlikely even to make the team out of spring training in 2021 so, short-term, not much help in our limited 'window'.    

SUMMARY - So, we went into this trade deadline with the goal of improving our offense.   The clear spot for that improvement was left field.   This trade robs us of a controllable, quality starting pitcher and brings back little that we need right now.  Given that Naylor's best position is first base it also makes me think that this trade is to get ready for us not re-signing Carlos Santana next year after we don't pick up his option this winter.  So, getting Naylor may actually be a real negative, long-term.  

Folks, this is not a terrible return for Clevinger, to be sure.   I mean, look at our CC Sabathia (Michael Brantley, not even named in the original deal but added as the PTBNL, was the only notable player) and Cliff Lee (Carrasco was the only notable player) and even our recent Corey Kluber trades. In those deals for quality, Cy Young caliber starting pitchers we hardly got anything back but promise, most of which went unfulfilled.  So this trade can't look, on paper, any worse than those.

Plus, on the prospect end we got quantity over quality and, like the trades for Lee and Sabathia, that generally doesn't go well as we can see just by looking at Logan Allen from the same team.   Not terrible but, clearly at this point in his career, a guy on a potentially fringe major leaguer patth.

Still, if you are thinking about this year and next, trading Clevinger for one controllable, quality major league power hitting left fielder would have been better than the 6 players we got.   In the end, when you trade quality assets in a year you are contending, THAT is what you want to get back, not a bunch of question marks, lower (but good) quality) prospects and duplicates we got in this trade.  

Now, to see if there is another shoe that drops later in the day or if this is it.   If this is it for the day, color me very disappointed as I don't believe any of these guys really help our change of getting to the playoffs or making a splash there where as it really does help the Padres...and isn't that the real measure of a trade between two contenders at the deadline? 

Old rant from an old guy

 You know, life is too short to troll.   But if I was going to troll someone/group I would troll these beat writers from one of the many on-line publications that cover other ML teams.  

A typical post goes like this:  "_________(insert name of player they think they can steal from the Indians) is a player our team should go after in a trade.   The Indians are looking to trade ________ (insert "pitching" or "hitting") and we have ___________ (insert name of old, broken down, overpaid or injured player).   This trade makes sense since the Indians are _______ (insert euphemisms meaning "cheap" or "stupid"),   I think the Indians would go for this trade and I think ______ (insert name of the writer's team)  would go for it."

These trade proposals are similar to the Jack taking a handful of beans for the family cow.   Although that turned out well for Jack, normally if it looks on the surface like you are getting ripped off, you are probably getting ripped off.

I did find one exception, though.   One of the guys who writes for a Red Sox blog suggested:

Andrew Benitendi plus another player for Zach Plesac.  On the surface that sounds like something an equivalently hacky writer for an Indians blog might suggest.    I know that Benitendi is hurt and may not help this year but it at least makes some sense from my perspective...as an Indians fan who would love to rip off the Red Sox...I mean, make a fair trade with another AL competitor. 

But in reality, I don't know what a good trade would look like for the Indians.   I will mention a couple of thoughts on the subject:

1. The Indians are so high on Triston McKenzie that I hope they don't trade him.   The buzz coming out of extended spring training was palpable regarding McKenzie and I think that they would not be selling high enough if they trade him now.   This guy is not Paul Rigdon.  He is the real deal.  If you got excited about Adam Plutko you were dreaming.   Getting excited about McKenzie seems like a more worthwhile use of time.

2. Trading Clevinger or Plesac makes no sense.   Watching these guys pitch and looking at our competitors' rotations tells me that, while these guys have good intrinsic value, just having the two of them plus Civale, Beiber and McKenzie means we would be in most games if those 5 stayed healthy every year.   Plus they are inexpensive for years to come.  You can build a team around free agency, especially this winter, if you have the rotation and a number of solid bullpen guys.  

3.There is never a better time to trade prospects.  If they come back to bite you in the butt it will be further down the road.   Plus our prospects have a lot of warts.  Take the hyped Nolan Jones, for example.   His splits, which seem pretty extreme to me for a polished guy like him, seem to indicate that he could easily slide into being a platoon player rather than a star down the road.   I think this year is a great time to sell high on most prospects and, except for McKenzie, on EVERY Indians propsect to get controllable guys back who can help the team this year and next year.   

So, there you have it.  Now you have to excuse me as I am going out looking for blog writers for other teams who are proposing stupid trades trying to rip off the pathetic Cleveland Indians who are so stupid they would be willing to take that bag of beans for a prize Hoffer..  

Drastic changes...and immediately

 Look, we are sputtering.  Yeah, we are above .500  and unless we suddenly go winless in a bunch of games it looks like we can make the playoffs.

But we are better than that.  We are almost halfway through the season and we need to make changes to reach our potential

Lindor goes back to leading off, Clevinger and Plesac come out of exile, Carrasco and Plutko go to the bullpen, the young, unproductive players go back to the minors, Leone looks for employment elsewhere.

So here is what we need to to:

1. We need to change the batting order right now:

Lindor

Hernandez

C. Santana

Reyes

Ramirez

D. Santana

R. Perez

Naquin/Luplow

DeShields

Commentary: I am not happy with this lineup and it needs to have guys replaced (see below).  Look, Lindor is a leadoff hitter.   He got three consecutive hits in this series when he hit with the bases empty.  When Hernandez hit the leadoff  homerun today it was the first time we scored in the first inning in 13 games.   Lindor isn't doing it at 3, he needs to move the leadoff and we need to do the other things described below.

2. We need to redo the rotation:

Beiber

Civale

Clevinger

Plesac

McKenzie

Commentary: We don't have time to fix Plutko and Carrasco.   Send them to the bullpen where Plutko provides length and Carrasco can leverage his stuff in shorter stints and, if he still struggles, we have guys to do the job without him and, if a starter gets hurt, he can slide back into a starter's role.  Plus, if we make the playoffs we likely will not need McKenzie in the rotation and he might just slide into the bullpen where his stuff might play up significantly, if that is even possible based on his start last night.

3. We need to redo the bullpen:

Send to minors: L. Allen

Release: Leone

Commentary: It is tough to put Logan Allen in this position.   He needs to pitch whereas Plutko needs to stay on the club.   Leone was a stretch from the beginning and he shows why he has had a high ERA most of his career.

New bullpen:

Hand

Karinchak

Wittgren

O. Perez

Cimber

Hill

Maton

Plutko

Carrasco

Commentary: If we can catch lightning in a bottle with Carrasco this could be one of the most dominant bullpens in baseball, which is all we would need if our starters could perform.

4. Trade Nolan Jones, Daniel Johnson and Nick Sanlin for Whit Merrifield making the everyday lineup:

Lindor

Hernandez

Merrifield

Santana

Ramirez

Reyes

D. Santana

R. Perez

Naquin/Luplow

5. Trade for an offensive minded, right handed hitting utility infielder rental who can play short or second and send Chang to the minors.

6. I don't like the idea of renting a bat but if we can get one cheap I would be for replacing the Naquin/Luplow platoon with a quality right field rental.   Depending upon the offense and if he is healthy, I could also see Merrifield replacing D. Santana or the platoon of Naquin/Luplow and having DeShields in centerfield.

This team needs drastic changes.  Time to make them now.

The wheels in my head are turning

So, this Saturday Triston McKenzie makes his major league debut.   Hmmmm!?!

There are lots of ways the Indians could have filled this space in the rotation including the obvious: Logan Allen as the opener, bring up a guy or two from the minors to give you length.    

There are some obvious reasons, all of which were well delineated by Carl Willis, for McKenzie to be the choice.

Don't get me wrong.   I am tickled that this is the choice.  I am a prospect-first guy.  I think the buzz has been that McKenzie is on point with his stuff right now.

I do have to ask (cue conspiracy theory-supporting music) is there more to this than meets the eye?

With the trading deadline approaching and the Indians likely seeing themselves as buyers of bats and maybe a bullpen arm AND the alternate site being somewhat of a black hole as far as scouting information goes, what better way to increase the value of your prospects then to give them a non-Super 2-invoking cup of coffee in the bright sunlight (or night-time stadium light) to up their value.   This wouldn't nearly be the first time this has been done close to the trading deadline.

Or, maybe the Indians are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with McKenzie, making their (potentially) non-repentant youngsters (or grown-ass men, if you wish) expendable.  Trading a young, controllable starting pitcher with major league experience (and recent success) who teams have had a good chance to see this year would net you more in return than trading McKenzie, with his injury and inexperience baggage.

Or maybe it is to show Clevinger and Plesac that, no, we don't need them because their replacement has shown up and, as a result, shock some reality back into these guys IF, and I repeat, IF, they are still singing the tune of 'We didn't do anything wrong and I don't know why people are being mean to us"

It's hard to tell what the reason is but I doubt that it is because they just think McKenzie gives them the best chance of winning.  

So, excited as heck to see McKenzie tomorrow night....and waiting for the other shoe to drop..

Say it ain't so, Joe!

 OK, the last couple of days have been really interesting...and concerning.

So, Oliver Perez said he would opt out if Clevinger and Plesac were reinstated to the active roster.

Was that right away or if they are reinstated at all this season?

If that is true how can Oliver Perez and Plesac and Clevinger ever be on the same roster ever again?

Perez is a smart guy, I am sure.   If he truly threw down the gauntlet like that I would be surprised.   Hey, do your due diligence by keeping the guys at Lake County until their 10 day minimum in the minors is done.  I get that.   

However, you keep them in the minors any longer than that and all the conspiracy theorists will come out of the woodwork and say it is just the owners being cheap and finding ways to hold onto players on the cheap longer  

So here is the dilemma:  Do you keep Clevinger and Plesac or do you keep the 38 year old Perez?  Or, do you trade Clevinger and/or Plesac and probably not get good value, likely injure your chances at competing this year and not help your chances in future years.  

So, the Indians had a dilemma.   If Oliver Perez threw down a demand that he would opt out if Clevinger and Perez were brought back this season, then Perez needs to be talked to.

Hey, I get that this is serious.   I also get that this is about their attitude as well as their actions.  I get that these guys are throwing gasoline on the fire and that Perez is adding his own accelerant.  However, this is also a business.   

You can dump these guys and get an unfairly low return on prinicple.  But that makes no business sense unless they are unsalvageable.

From a purely business standpoint, purely business, mind you, if you have to choose between two young starters under team control for several years and a 38-year old yearly deal guy like Perez, if Perez REALLY did make a demand to keep them out for an extended period of time, you have to trade Perez.  Again, all emotion aside, Perez can't put his team in this situation...if he truly did present that ultimatum, 

Plus, the Indians can't be seen as trying to leverage the pandemic and MLB rules on it to gain a financial advantage of keeping these players for longer or cheaper than they should be kept.

And this from the guy who values prospects above all else!!!!!

OK, this season can go one of three ways:

A. We do enough to win it all

B. We don't do anything and this season is disappointing

C. We do something, or we don't do anything, and the season is cancelled at some point due to Covid-19.

As has been said already, this is the most dangerous trade deadline in history...for all teams in contention.  

Given that backdrop, the Indians need hitting and could use a little insurance in the bullpen...or a minor leaguer like Nick Sandlin needs to step up.

So how we do navigate this tough time with the needs we have.

First, if you want to trade assume you are going to give up one or both of Nolan Jones and Triston McKenzie.  

Second, if you do this properly you won't be trading for rent-a-players.   The threat of a season cancellation due to the pandemic is too great to risk prospects, even middling prospects, on a guy who might not get to play any meaningful games for your team.  

Third, with 16 teams in the playoffs it is very likely there will be less sellers at the deadline.   Thanks you Captain Obvious!!!

If you are on board with these premises and projecting what it was thought that teams would do at the beginning of the year, here are possible trades we could do:

Triston McKenzie and Daniel Johnson to the Royals for Whit Merrifield.   This seems like a lot for Merrifield but it is 3+ years of Merrifield and he is versatile and should be productive for all those years.  Plus by the time the Royals are competitive again Merrifield will be nearing the end of his contract.   Maybe we can get them to throw in Scott Barlow.  

Kyle Seager for Nolan Jones.   This fit is a little worse.  Seager is a third baseman and we have one.  We could DH him or Ramirez but that would put Reyes in the outfield and Seager and Ramirez might not like being the DH.    Plus Seager has a hefty contract of $18 million next year and would have a player option at $18 million for 2022 which might make him too rich for us.  Maybe we take on that salary if we get a current reliever like Matt McGill in addition to Seager.

Josh Bell for Triston McKenzie, Nolan Jones and Cam Hill.   Yeah, doubt if this one would work, either.   But Bell is enticing if we move Santana to DH and Reyes to the outfield.  Bell has this year plus two arbitration years before he reaches free agency and his salary is reasonable right now and should probably be reasonable next year, as well.  Tito would like this one as Bell would be another switch hitter for him although his splits against lefties are not that good.  

So this is all I could come up with.right now.   As I said, unless some team just collapses, these are the trades that I think are doable for the Indians and none of these trades kills them if the season is cancelled this year.   

COVID and the Indians

So, with all the other issues this team has, we have the Clevinger/Plesac fiasco.

Don't get me wrong.   This is "a condition of employment' level issue.  That is, you want to work for me, you will follow my rules or you will not be able to work for me.

However, this is not the only thing that is wrong with the whole COVID bubble thing.  With my subscription to Indians broadcasts I see as much as STO shows about what is going on in the game.   

The key here is what Clevinger and Plesac did, selfishly, to potentially bring COVID into "the bubble".   However, as the Cardinals have said about their outbreak, it is not only what is going on that lets COVID in, it is what goes on inside the bubble that allows it to spread.  That is, if internal protocols are not followed the virus can spread rapidly through the bubble.  And that is where I see a problem.  

Here are some of the recent examples:

1/ Jordan Luplow, after his first hit/HR of the season went, COVID-wise ballistic..  High-Fiving people, screaming in the face of people on the on-deck circle and in the dugout

2. Jose Ramirez, without a mask on, not social distancing at all from Francisco Lindor (who was wearing a mask).   Ramirez took has hand and wiped it over his face, wiping off the sweat while all the time touching things around him that others could have touched.   Lindor, sitting right next to Ramirez, took off his mask to year down to someone at the other end of the dugout.   He did put his mask back on but, still,   Plus both of them were standing with their hands on the rails at the front of the dugout.

Pitchers without masks and not putting their gloves over their faces, talking to catchers and pitching coaches in mound visits.

Not everyone in the dugout has a mask on and, in fact, Francona generally doesn't wear the mask over his nose, just over his mouth (one of my big pet peeves in mask wearing!).

Another point.   Maybe the cameras don't show it but I have not seen a single container of disinfectant wipes in the dugout and I have never seen a player going for hand sanitizer in shots of the dugout.  Don't know if that means it isn't happening but it does beg that question, doesn't it?

And this could just be the tip of the iceberg as the game cameras don't catch pre-game warmups.   What goes on in places like the locker room I assume is more well-regulated by the team.   But still....

In summary, there are two aspects to controlling this virus in baseball:

Don't let the virus in

Assume that it is "in" and don't let it spread.

You can't have one conversation without the other, because it is going to get in.  Even the most diligent nursing homes are showing that because you THINK you are doing so much to keep it from getting in your bubble that you relax a little bit about the internal procedures when, really, you need to treat internal situations like it is already in.   

The former is logical but I think, more than Clevinger/Plesac which is a totally separate issue of trust and truth, the latter is what would keep situations like this from spreading.   

So while the Indians are absolutely right in their public chastising of these two young men, they need to be more diligent inside their bubble or it looks like they are just handling the public part of the equation whereas the private part, what happens inside the bubble, does not appear to be being appropriately policed.

Speculations about the hitting

For the first time (thanks to the pandemic) I have had the time to make a subscription to MLBTV to be worthwhile.  

So I have seen, in entirety, every Indians game this year.

It is great to see our pitchers do as well as they are.  

It is gut wrenching to see our hitters suck as bad as they do.

So what is going on with the hitters.

Some thoughts that come to mind:

• Just pressing because no one else is hitting and the season is short.
• Our hitters are just overrated and they suck
  
• Bad hitting coaches
• People not hitting where they are best at hitting
• Pandemic

Because of the pitching similarities to 1991 (a team that lost 101 games) the hitting situation scares me. So I have been thinking a lot about the hitting.

I will preface what I am saying by acknowledging that I was a terrible hitter...in little league.   The best 'hits' I got was when I leaned into one...with my butt.    So I have not expertise to lend to what I am saying.  That being said, here is what I am thinking.

1. I don't believe that our hitters are pressing.   I really don't think this is it.   This has gone on way too long for that to be true.  If you press you generally are not taking a lot of pitches.

2. I don't believe our hitters ALL suck.   Yes, Reyes did not hit well when he came here last year and Domingo Santana, if you take away his first 60 games last year, was just mediocre.  Luplow was really just above average last year but, previously, he sucked so his start could be a little rust and a lot just that he sucks.  Leon sucks but we know he would have.  So maybe some of this is that they suck.  We get that Allen and Johnson could have this kind of start and that Zimmer is doing very similar to every year but his first year.  I think Carlos Santana is just struggling because Lindor is struggling as are Reyes and Domingo Santana.   So he doesn't have to get fastballs.   Basically, pitchers can pitch around him because there is no one on base in front of him and the people hitting behind him are not dangerous.   Thus all the walks he is getting early AND the lack of HRs and BA as when he does swing he isn't swinging at pitches he can feast on.

3. I really was, and maybe still am, thinking it is that we have bad hitting coaches.  Part of the rip on Tito in Boston was it got to the point that the players were running the team.   This is not a dig at Tito but, rather, he had veterans and he trusted them to prepare correctly and, frankly, they were probably taking advantage of that situation.   If the same attitude exists here AND the hitting coaches are not really that experienced, maybe the lack of an unbiased, quality voice is keeping these guys from getting in their groove.   Maybe.  It would not be the first time I have seen that with a team and not even the first time I have seen that with the Indians.

4. It has crossed my mind several times that Lindor is hitting pathetically because he is hitting 3rd.   It looks like he is lost and pressing.   While Ramirez has hit well at times, he is still hitting a lot of line drives foul and is not producing in the clutch as he should.   

So, you could easily say that it is a combination of the first 4 things.   Hernandez is doing what he should do as a leadoff hitter.   Maybe all the other guys are failing because each of them has an issue.   Or......

4. Maybe it is due to the pandemic.    As I think Yogi Berra said, baseball is 90% mental and the other half physical.   Despite the bad math, if you head is not in the game, you won't do well.   I really think that if players are worried about their health and how it impacts their future in the game and their ability to both live AND be millionaires after this season, maybe their head is not in the game as much as it needs to be.   Picture Lindor if he wasn't enjoying the game like he did in the past.   Now it becomes a grind, looking over his shoulder to see who may be infecting him and then having it snowball into a hitting slump.   

In my opinion it is not one thing.   But the thing that comes to mind more often than anything is that a large part of the hitting struggles could be the pandemic.

Why doesn't this impact pitchers?  I think pitching is more mechanical and the pitchers count on the catchers and the catchers can focus on their defense.  The fact that our pitchers are successful with Beau Taylor catching as well as with Leon or Perez tells me that pitchers may be more immune to being defocused by the pandemic.   Maybe.

Well, time to watch again.  Hopefully whatever reason it is, the hitters get over it today...and we don't have a repeat of 1991.

New name for Cleveland's major league baseball team

OK, so I need 5 minutes to decompress in light of COVID and everything else going on in my life, I wanted to give my thoughts about the various names that have been proposed.  So let's dig in:

Cleveland Naps - I like to look at names as if I was from another city and didn't care about the back story so much.   That is, I am taking the name at face value.   Thinking about it that way the Naps is not a very good name.  We all know what a nap is: "a short sleep, especially during the day".  That doesn't sound like a competitive name.   Who would be the mascot: Snoozy?  I thought of partnering with Disney but I am a little concerned that using the name of a dwarf might be problematic and insensitive relative to short people.   I just don't see this being a name I would respect if I was from a different city/part of the country.

Cleveland Rockers - Again, the back story is very understandable for the average Clevelander but, to me, this doesn't read well for someone NOT from Cleveland.  My image is someone in a rocking chair.   I could be acceptable with this one but I don't see it as the best option.

Cleveland Rocks - This is my personal favorite.   I think that it allows for marketing and even a Fantastic Four-like mascot.   I think, while there may be some joking about the relative intelligence of professional athletes, I think a rock is a pretty tough thing.  Plus, if our favorite college football team could be a type of nut, I think a Rock outdoes a nut.  Plus it brings memories of Drew Carey's TV show which does have national exposure.

Cleveland Spiders - I am not for this one at all.   Spiders are scary but not in an intimidating sense.   Plus the Marketing and mascot aspects of this would be problematic.

Cleveland Midges - While this one can bring a chuckle from Indians fans/Yankees haters, it doesn't pass any marketing or mascot hurdles and it may be misinterpreted by little people to be problematic.

Cleveland Fellers - While this honors the name of the favorite son of Indians baseball, it means nothing out of town AND would be really hard to get name recognition which could hurt the brand marketing.   However, given the White Sox, Red Sox, Reds, etc., this one would be acceptable.

Cleveland Pioneers - Again, nothing wrong with this but it is sort of old-sounding.

Cleveland Force or Cleveland Crunch or Cleveland Gladiators - Names of other, defunct teams in other sports in the Cleveland area.   Of course all of these are fine as good sports teams names but as Star Wars is overdone and Gladiators may infuriate people (most of us) who didn't like using human murder as entertainment, I might go with Cleveland Crunch

So, for me, we put the following up to the Cleveland fans to vote on:

•  Cleveland Rocks
• Cleveland Crunch
• Cleveland Fellers

I am really afraid that the Fellers would win emotionally even though the Marketing might be severely hurt by this nickname.

Any thoughts