The umpteenth don't trade Lindor post

 It really makes me roll my eyes when I hear a local writer (or two...or more) spout that Lindor will be traded this winter.

It all makes too much sense to me.

Now, if they said "Expect, if the Tribe get the offer they want, that they will trade Lindor this winter"

But what they are saying, in essence, is "Expect the Tribe to take the best offer for Lindor, irrespective of whether it is a good offer, just to save money or get stuck paying Lindor's salary next season."

You see, when you set low expectations you are bound to meet them.

Once Lindor is traded expect those same writers to say, in order:

• The Tribe really worked the trade market but this was the best they could get for Lindor
• With the season he had last year, his value was really down and so the FO did the best they could in a bad situation.
• What do you think we would have gotten for him if we waited until August?  Probably less than what we got now.
• Stay used to it, fans.   It's what happens when Tribe superstars get close to free agency

Expect maybe a top 10 prospect from some other organization (maybe the 7th best prospect or so), an overpaid veteran to balance out his salary, a low A fireballer who barely makes his team's top 20 prospects and another minor leaguer who is a college player with low upside but gaudy stats in the low minors who everyone knows is really not a prospect (thus not being a top prospect in the organization).

Look what we got for Bauer: Reyes, Logan Allen and Scott Moss.   Despite what people may say about Allen and Moss, it is more than likely that neither of them ever helps the Indians.  So maybe we got Reyes.

Look what we got for Clevinger.   Unless the Tribe's pitching magicians can get more out of Quantrill than what I think is there, he is a 5th starter, setup guy as his upside.   Naylor may or may not be anything.  Look at Luplow in his career.   Turn him around at the plate and that is likely to be Naylor.  Plus the minor leaguers are really questionable in my opinion.   

Now imagine what we get for a year of Lindor?  I think a year of Lindor and a compensation round pick is better than what this FO can do in a trade.  So the best trade is NO trade

Fans get mad, Dolan saves money, FO spins the guys we got back as really good additions to the organization.  Same old, same old.

So don't trade the guy because what you will get back is less than Lindor's one year value to this team and that compensation draft pick when he leaves.

That's the thing, right.  Make the best trade, even and ESPECIALLY if it is no trade.

So, as a counterpoint, let's change that narrative.

The Indians are a playoff contender with Lindor next year.   Without him and with the loss of Santana and maybe Hand, they are NOT a contender.  Maybe barely a .500 team or (gasp!) with an injury or two a below .500 team.  That "Let's go for mediocrity" narrative doesn't play well if you can't be above .500, does it?  I mean, even this year if we played a full schedule there is a better than average chance we would have been a below .500 team.

Plus, assuming fans are allowed to attend games next year, Lindor puts butts in the seats more than any other player not named Beiber.

Plus part deux, Lindor HAS to have a better season next year as he approaches free agency.   

So we keep the face of the franchise for another year.  Whether he likes it here or not, he is contractually obligated to play for the Tribe.   If he sucks he hurts his free agent value next winter.

Plus we are a little more competitive and all of us go to our graves knowing we got to see Lindor for as long (or almost as long if he is traded in August) as we could have, being fans of the Cleveland Tribe.