Two things to say before we start this discussion:
1. My ability to predict which Indians' prospects will be selected in the Rule 5 draft, excluding a few, rare no-brainer exceptions), ranges between poor and pathetic so take what you read below with a grain of salt.
2. If the collective bargaining agreement is not agreed upon the word is that all transactions (and the Rule 5 draft would likely qualify as a transaction) would be frozen so the conversation below may become moot at that point.
Here goes:
Oscar Gonzalez - A guy who, at 23, hit 31 HRs between AA and AAA after not having a minor league season in 2020 is way too hard to resist. Yes he has warts: bad defense, very bad plate discipline. But he hits and he hits HRs. Gven that maybe all the teams in baseball this coming year, if there is a baseball season in 2022, could have the DH, I think there is close to 100% chance he gets selected. Not as the first pick overall because pitching is more valuable than hitting. But he will at least be a second round pick for a team making two picks (see Pirates, for example, or maybe even the Nationals)
Aaron Bracho - In the face of guys in his international class excelling, he struggled. I don't know if it was by design to hide him or because that's where he fits, but he played a lot of first base and third base and no shortstop and Bracho will not hit like a first baseman or third baseman if he even makes the majors. While he is the top prospect by ranking available among Guardian prospects, he is one of the least likely to get selected (10%) and, if he gets selected, one of the least likely to stick with the drafting team. He is also one of my picks to have a breakout MINOR LEAGUE season in 2022.
Joey Cantillo - He is an interesting case because he is a relatively highly ranked prospect but not really, before his injury this year, even a top 10 prospect in the Indians system. He doesn't have any high minors experience and missed the whole year this year, essentially. He might be able to be stashed a couple of months on a 60-day DL based on his recovery from this year's injury but here is a classc example of the team drafting him looking more at his prospect status than his true ability to stick in the majors this year. 20% chance he gets drafted. As far as sticking, TJ McFarland comes to mind as a comp but that was when LOOGYs were a thing which went away with the 3 batter minimum.
Juan Mota - I would say 50% chance he gets drafted. Although he is the real-life wild thing he pitched extensively in AAA and can get it up there at 100 mph. He is the perfect Rule 5 lottery ticket and I can see any number of rebuilding teams taking a shot at him. If Luis Oviedo can last a whole year I am thinking Mota can.
Jerson Ramirez - 10% chance. He is still too far down in the minors to see if his stuff will even play in the majors.
Aaron Pinto - Based on his AFL numbers, no chance he gets drafted.
Adam Scott - 50%. Being left-handed and given that so many teams are using openers, some for most of their rotation, I see him as a great opener or innings-eating garbage time reliever for a rebuilding team. He pitched just enough in 2021 to make teams forget he was injured most of the year and to keep teams from finding warts in his game that might cause them to avoid him come Rule 5 draft tme.
Matt Turner - Too young, very bad in the AFL. 0% chance he gets drafted.
Andres Melendez - 5% chance he gets drafted. He is an intriguing prospect but too far down the minors for a team to keep him even as a 3rd catcher.
Jose Fermin - In a vacuum I might say that this versatile, hustling infielder with a ridiculoowly low strikeout rate might get selected. But you have to realize, as good as he looks to us, there a likely to be dozens of more intriguing middle infielders with better power, better speed, etc. than Fermin has. While he looks good to us I don't see him standing out to other teams. 25% chance of getting drafted.
Marcos Gonzalez - Hidden away at AA the same way Bracho was hidden away at high A, I don't think Gonzalez gets drafted but, along with Bracho, he is one of my breakout prospects in the minor leagues for the Indians next year. 15% chance he gets drafted,
Will Benson - 5% chance he gets drafted. He has too many holes in his game and the projection on him is still 2 more solid minor league seasons until he can contribute in the majors. I don't see any team drafting him as they know he will be a 5th wheel next year and they might have to run out of options on him before he is ready to stick in the majors.
Alexfri Planez - In a normal Rule 5 some team might take a chance on him. However, every team was in the same boat as the Guardians with prospects whose development was stunted due to the lack of the 2020 minor league season. So, instead of becoming an intrguing prospect some team takes a lottery-ticket try with, he is just another intriguing prospect too far away from the majors to waste $100,000 on.. 15% chance of getting drafted but another of my picks to break out (maybe a Valera-like breakout) in 2022.
Jonathon Rodriguez - He was young for his draft class and teams will pass on him because he is so young and so far away from the majors, even if he lasts the season with his drafting team. Anthony Santander was a better prospect and look how long it REALLY took him to settle in. 15% chance gets drafted.
Justin Garza - Yes, he will be eligible. But why would a team select him when they could have had him for essentially nothing on the waiver wire?
Daniel Johnson - Ditto to Garza.
There are always guys who are drafted who are head scratchers at the time (TJ McFarland comes to mind. Who would have ever thought he was going to stick that year with the Orioles or have the career that he has had. So someone else on our list might get drafted. Even Sandy Leon is eligible, for what that's worth.
It will be interesting but, if we lost two who didn't come back last year (Tom and Oviedo), expect to lose at least 2 (100% chance) and maybe 3 (50% chance), 4 (25% chance) or 5(10% chance) this year.
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