Were the Guardians Idiots?

 OK, a lot of the people who follow this stuff were begging for the Indians to protect their top prospects from the Rule 5 draft.   This was a historic year n that the Guardians had so many prospects that needed to be protected.   Some were good prospects who likely will play extensively in the majors in 2022 (Kwan, Morris, Pilkington, Myers).   Some were high level, maybe top 100 in baseball prospects who project to be above average ML starters and are not that far away from the majors but not likely ready by opening day 2022, maybe not even opening day 2023 (Freeman, Valera, Rocchio, Tena, Lavastida).   Some were such good prospects that they had to be protected even though they were YEARS away from being ML-ready (Noel).

In the background was always the looming end of the CBA and the proposed lockout and stoppage of transactions.

Every team had to know this could mean that the Rule 5 draft could be postponed and that postponement might become a cancellaton if the work stoppage dragged on into spring training.

I am pretty safe in predicting that someone, somewhere, will call into question the Guardans thought process on this.

Should they have assumed the Rule 5 draft would be cancelled and not protected these prospects?

Maybe they should have protected less prospects and not had to give away fringe guys like Harold Ramirez, JC Mejia and Scott Moss for nothing?

Monday morning quarterbacks will likely bring up these questions and, for what it's worth, here are my answers:

1. Should the Guardians, knowing the work stoppage was a possibility, protected fewer of these prospects?

Look, your prospects are your prospects.   Most teams have multiple prospects on their roster and even multiple veterans on their roster who would not even make our roster.  Multiple guys.  

Right now the Rule 5 draft is postponed indefnitely.  It might still happen.   The Indians did the exact right thing.  They protected the best players in their system, major and minor leaguers, who needed to be protected.    If it never happens it never happens.   Hopefully under the new CBA they retire this dinosaur instead of keeping it and talking about the handful of players over the years who benefitted from this draft, forgetting totally about the players whose career it almost killed.   Even one of the stars of the 2020 Rule 5 draft, Akil Badoo, was thinking about quitting baseball when, after tanking, he was sent to the minors.  

But the Guardians were right in keeping the prospects on the 40 man roster because this is about protecting the players you would least like to lose and who have the highest likelihood of being picked and never coming back.  

2. Should the Guardians have jumped into the free agent frenzy like so many of their competitors did?

There may be a reason most of the rest of baseball was transaction happy in the weeks leading up to the work stoppage but it escapes me.  The Guardians did exactly what they should have.  Playng the waiting game.  

Look, they will likely have to make trades to clear out some roster space.  I mean, right now they don't have enough pitching or quality outfielders to start next season.  I mean, Mercado in left, Straw in center and Zimmer in right just won't cut it.   A bullpen without replacements for Shaw and Parket just won't cut it.  We don't have a lot of roster fluff to DFA.  The only way to clear spots on this roster is to trade some prospects.  Yes, you could DFA Logan Allen and one or both of Zimmer and Mercado but, after that, the roster is stacked.    Maybe Carlos Vargas as he will run out of options before making it to the majors.  

This may actually work in their favor.   I am thinking that guys like Juan Soto, who the Nationals want to sign long-term, might be more available after the stoppage than they are now since they will move closer to free agency (albeit only slightly) and further away from the time when extensions are normally hammered out.  Plus, maybe the Nationals want to go into a rebuild and they are just waiting to see if there will be a salary floor.   Trading an $8.5 million a year player won't help them get to $100 million in salary, will it?  

3.  Will this lockout mean the Rule 5 will be cancelled altogether?  

Highly unlikely.   The players like the Rule 5 and so my guess is that it stays.  But, it might not happen this year as part of the compromise towards a new CBA.   The players might be able to throw a one year hiatus onto the altar.  Time will tell.