What is wrong with Franmil Reyes and Myles Straw?

 I have seen slumps before but the body language I am seeing out of these two guys tells me there is something more going on here.

As far as Straw, he just looks overmatched at the plate, like he is just trying to slap or poke at the ball.  If I had to make a guess as a completely unqualified diagnostician, I would say he is suffering wrist pain, probably in his left wrist.  He is just not swinging the bat with authority and he wouldn't be throwing out runners if his right shoulder/arm was bothering him.

As far as Reyes, he just looks like he is not seeing the ball at all.  I mean, at all.  Based on last year it appears that he is seeing a blurry vision of the ball.   When it is in a certain area his body can react to what he is seeing to make hard contact.   But he is being fooled way too often on pitches way outside and he is not even fighting off fastballs on the inner half above the waist, constantly swinging through them.

And neither of them look engaged at all when at the plate.  Maybe it is the utter frustration knowing they are so much better than what they are showing.  I don't know.   But the body language for both of them at the plate is just really convincing me that these problems are not fixable this year, whatever the cause.

When you put a lineup on the field that has four automatic outs (Hedges/Maile, Clement, Straw and Reyes) surrounded by guys, except for Ramirez, who are only moderate starting quality in the majors, you just can't win baseball games at this level.

Yes they are above .500 so we all should be happy with that.   

But the production of Straw and Reyes?  They are killing our offense and they need to get right or go on the IL.  With them at last year's form this team is in first place in the AL Central.   With them this year, they are making it almost impossible for this team to win against good teams.

The Oscar Gonzalez situation and how it impacts the future of the Guardian's 40-man roster decisions

OK, if the internet didn't exist and all we had was "Remember when I told you..." then this would be a different story.   

But a number of us were saying last winter that the Indians needed to re-sign Oscar Gonzalez before he left as a 6-year minor league free agent.  Remember, based on the old rules, that means that the guy has actually played in your minor league system for SEVEN seasons as you have to have more than 6 COMPLETE seasons once you sign in order to qualify as a minor league free agent, assuming the player was not released.

Then, once we all breathed a sigh of relief, we were saying it was a no brainer to roster a 23 year old who hit 31 HRs and ended the season raking at AAA. 

However, we were all working with limited information.   We wanted him protected based on his power numbers and his ability to hit for average and his strong arm in RF.    We didn't see the other skills which is why there was less gnashing of teeth in not rostering Gonzalez and less jubilation when the Rule 5 draft was cancelled.

But we (fans and bloggers) are not scouts and some of the beat writers, fans and bloggers bought into the Indians' KoolAid that Gonzlez's lack of walks would doom him and that the rest of his skill set (fielding and speed) were not enough to overcome his lack of selectivity at the plate.

Still, how does one make that judgement on a 23 year old coming off his best minor league season against the best pitching in the minor leagues (AA and AAA)?

Well, now we know who Oscar Gonzalez is: a guy with plus power who uses the whole field as a hitter, who has a great arm, better than average speed and improving defense.  

Looking at it now it appears a no-brainer to have rostered him last fall, despite the roster crunch we all knew as coming.   I even suggested rostering him INSTEAD of Kwan, who I saw, and still see, as a 4th outfielder with limited power and only average speed.

But why did the Guardians' experts whiff on Gonzalez?  He has flashed all 5 tools and the only one he is lacking on the 6th, the Money Ball skill of plate discipline.  The last is a make-or-break skill in the majors, to be sure.  But the first 5 get you lots of chances to improve.   

The question should be: what are the Guardians going to do to make sure that something like this doesn't happen again?  We will have the ever-improving Will Benson coming up this winter and, likely, next winter we will have Alexfri Planez,  Junior Sanquintin and maybe Gabriel Rodriguez looming as power potential guys with unfinished tool sets who we will have to make decisions on.  

Hopefully the Guardians' scouting and player development people will have refined their pardigms so that we don't have a repeat of the Oscar Gonzalez situation and we will make better decisions going forward. For a team that HAS to maximize every minor leage asset they have and can't afford to waste anythng, it is crucial that our player development people do better than they did with their evaluation of Gonzalex.

What do we have in Alexfri Planez and Johnkensy Noel?

 From a pure logistical perspective one of the biggest gambles in setting the 40-man roster last winter was the inclusion of Johnkensy Noel.  Here was a guy who, due to the pandemic had never played above low A ball heading into last winter.  Just projecting one year of development per level, Noel could easily run out of option years before he hit the majors for the first time.  

Why would a team protect someone like that from the Rule 5 major league draft?  Well, all you had to do was to see him hit, both for power and average, and see his potential as a major league bat, including his prodigious home runs and his AB/HR ratio to see why the Guardians did not want to lose him.  

Yes, it was a big gamble to roster him last winter and created a 'dead' roster spot for the next 2 years at least, maybe 3, meaning that we had a guy on the 40-man who had no legitimate chance of helping the Guardians n 2022 and 2023 and only a small chance of helping them in 2024.  His arrival was likely in 2025 and that is if everything went well in his development AND if he didn't have to return to the minors.

But that bat!  

And then it got more complicated.   He is still hitting prodigious blasts but his batting average has remained low most of this year and his approach at the plate has become a two true outcome approach as he is going all Dave Kingman on us.  True he is a ridiculously low BABIP in the first half of the season and does have 19 HRs but I think his approach at the plate is starting to eat away at the overall value of his bat.  

So now it looks like we protected him too early.   Time will tell.

Then we have Alexfri Planez.    He started late this year because of an injury but when he came back he started going off and how has 8 HRs and 8 doubles in not that many ABs (I would say plate appearances but he has drawn only one walk meaning, for him, ABs = PA).  Last fall I said that we couldn't protect everyone and Planez was someone we had to leave unprotected.

But what about this coming winter?  

Well, having learned from Noel and knowing that (a) our 40 man roster is stacked and (b) we can't have any more dead roster spots with all the near-ML ready guys we have to protect, there is still no way to protect Planez this winter.   He could go off for 30 HRs for the rest of the year at Lake County and it wouldn't change a thing.  Planez will still take 2-3 years of development and we simply can't afford to protect him and run him out of option years not knowing if his development will even be linear (see Noel's nosedive this year).  

In hindsight protecting Noel last winter was most likely a mistake as his development has stalled at High A this year and he likely won't be ML ready before he is out of minor league options.   We just can't make the same mistake with Planez.  We have to put him on the Columbus reserve list this fall and hope he isn't drafted or, if he is, that he doesn't stick with the team that drafts him.  Although comparisons to Anthony Santander and Albert Pujols keep bouncing around in my brain and even Akil Badoo comps represent, to me, Planez's floor,  the pandemic and the ridiculous Rule 5 rules that make you protect 20 year old Latin prospects who have never played above A ball or risk losing them, we just simply canot protect A ball Latin prospects on our 40-man.

Trade deadline - Who are our trade chips?

 OK, time to start musing about who we can trade for and who would be prime trade chips.  

Assumpton: We are not trading for rentals and if

Trade Chips - 

To understand who would be trade assets we need to look at our lineup going forward.  Projecting, here is the best lineup I can imagine, given the current players we have:

C - Bo Naylor 

1B - Josh Naylor
2B - Freeman
SS - Gimenez
3B - Ramirez
LF - Gonzalez
CF - Straw
RF - Valera

DH - Reyes

Extra OF - Kwan/Palacios

Extra Catcher - Lavastida

Extra INF - Arias

SP1 - Beiber

SP2 - McKenzie

SP3 - Quantrill

SP4 - Plesas

SP5 - Civale

Closer - Clase

Bullpen - Hentges, Stephan, Morgan, Karinchak, OPEN, OPEN, OPEN

As far as the open positions in the bullpen I can see Daniel Espino, Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis filling those roles or we bring in some veterans.   Still, these guys represent my untouchables.

Who does that leave as trade chips.  Here they are, in order of the value I project for them:

Major Leaguers

1. Amed Rosaro

2. Ernie Clement

3. Anthony Gose

4. Nick Sanlin

Prospects

1. Gavin Willaims

2. Logan T. Allen

3. Johnkensy Noel

4. Peyton Battenfield

5. Konnor Pilkington

6. Brayan Rocchio

7. Nolan Jones

8. Angel Martinez

9. Jose Tena

10. Gabriel Rodriquez

11. Will Brennan

12. Milan Tolentino

13. Ethan Hankins

14. Joey Cantillo

15. Alexfri Planez

There are a number of other players who could be dealt for rentals.  This includes guys like Jose Fermin, Aaron Bracho, Junior Sanquintin.   These are guys who are likely not part of our future but still could have value in bringing in a reliever for a couple of months. 

Next we will examine the areas of need on this team and then who we might target and what I would be willing to pay for that player.  

Early mock draft for the Guardians

 OK, teams like who they like and draft who they like.   MLB, Baseball America, etc. don't generally have a handle on who teams like, just projecting the talent.

Common wisdom would have it that the Guardians would draft some hitters this year.   Looking at our history, I don't really think that they will draft a HS hitter early.   

So let's look at who they mght draft:

Round 1 (16 overall) - Gabriel Hughes RHP Gonzaga -  I know, I know, another college pitcher.  Still, looking at his scouting report and the warts of the college hitters who will be there when our turn comes around, I take the bird in the hand here.

Supplemental Round 1 (37 overall) - Jud Fabian - OF - Florida - I like his overall game and he is a college hitter worth our selection at this point.  

Second Round (54 overall) - Jacob Melton - OF - Oregon State - I like his speed/power combination.  Still, the Indians could very well use this selection on a HS pitcher who will have to be paid over slot for this selection.

Third Round (92 overall) - Luke Gold - 2B - Boston College - This is a reach as I don't think he will be available when we get to this pick but, if he is, he would be a good value here.  If not, they could pool savings from earlier rounds and draft a HS hitter who has dropped due to high bonus demands for his talent or poor spring performance.

Fourth Round (121 overall) - Xavier Isaac - 1B - North Carolina HS - Just like Bobby Bradley, I like this kid's game and he is clearly worth a selection here.

Fifth Round (151 overall) - I can't crystal ball this one but my thought is that they will save a little money on Hughes that they can apply to this pick and draft a HS pitcher who has dropped for some reason.

After the 5th round I see them following their usual script drafting some college senior pitchers and maybe throwing in a few college hitters.  I do think, however, they may focus on college pitching in the later rounds because the loss of the Mahoning Valley team really showed that they don't need to draft college positions players to fill out a roster.

Way too early look at this winter's 40-man roster

 Just musing on a Sunday night.   Thanks to Guardians Prospective for providing the list of Rule 5eligiblees for this winter's draft.   (NOtE: The text below edited to account for my math error n the number of infielders I counted.)

Looking at the list most of the eligible players are not even worth consdering.   They are either too low in the minors or not worth considering based on current levels of performance, or both.  Going through the list here are the guys we have to protect, in order, and the guys who will probably be prime targets for the Rule 5 ML draft.

Guys who, in a perfect world, should be protected:

1. Bo Naylor 

2. Hunter Gaddis

3. Peyton Battenfield

4. Xzavion Curry

5. Joey Cantillo

SUMMARY

Naylor is a lock with the tools he is showing this year.   Admittedly, this is his second season at AA so you would expect a bump in his stat line but good catching prospects are hard to find and his tools scream "Protect Me". The other three guys on this list are pitchers.  Battenfield will have a full year at AAA under his belt by this winter.  Young, successful AAA pitchers get protected..  If you consider Gaddis and Curry starting pitchers I am not sure you would protect them.  However, when you see them  pitch you could envision them pitching in Cleveland's bullpen as early as this September.   They could both be impact relievers next year with the stuff they have.  Very few scenarios where these guys would not be protected.  Cantillo has not pitched much since we got him in the Clevinger trade but he is coming on now.  His stuff isn't overpowering but he is having success in AA as a 22 year old.  There is an outside chance he won't be protected but if he keeps pitching like he is now, he will force his way onto the roster this winter.

Guys who are likely to not be protected

1. Angel Martinez

2. Will Brennan

3. Ethan Hankins

4. Nick Mikoajchak

5. Gabriel Rodriguez

6. Andrew Misiaszek

7. Nic Enright

8. Lenny Torres

9. Dayan Frias

10. Micah Pries

11. Ray Delgado

11. Junior Sanquintin

SUMMARY

There are some surprises this list, the type that gives ulcers to prospect buffs like me.  Martinez has been a highly ranked prospect the last couple of years but, frankly, he pales in comparison to the likes of Gimenez, Arias and Tyler Freeman to say nothing about proven hitters like Owen Miller and Palacios, who can both play the infield.  Brennan, eveyone's pet favorite this year, is essentially Kwan and Palacios and Straw.   I didn't like them protecting Kwan last winter and I don't see, given that Brennan doesn't project any better than Kwan, that they would spend a roster spot on him this winter. Hankins and Torres have been highly-ranked prospects for a couple of years with the guardians but they are too low in the minors and too early in their recovery from injuries to give them roster spots.   Some teams may take a flyer on them but I hope the their lack of experience and injury history will keep teams from taking a chance.  The minor league relievers, Mickoajchak, Misisazek and Enright just don't compare, to me, with the potential of Curry and Gaddis.  Generally minor league relievers who aren't throwing 98+ don't attract much interest in the Rule 5.   Guys like Rodriguez and Sanquintin have been highly ranked in the past but teams generally don't take a chance in the Rule 5 on guys who are mediocre performers at A ball.   I think the Guardians are also managing Rodriguez's ABs and batting him low in the lineup, maybe trying to hide him a little bit.

Guys not on this list who are eligible are not even close enough to the majors to even discuss at this point.  

40 man roster this winter

OK, so we know that in a perfect world we need to add 4 guys to the roster this year.  Given our roster crunch these would likely only be guys who could break camp with the Guardians or be first callups.  I think the four guys above fit that description.  But how does that impact the 40-man roster this winter?

Pitchers (20)

Peyton Battenfield

Shane Bieber

Joey Cantillo

Aaron Civale

Emmanuel Clase

Xzavion Curry

Enyel De Los Santos

Hunter Gaddis

Anthony Gose

Sam Hentges

James Karinchak

Triston McKenzie

Eli Morgan

Cody Morris

Konnor Pilkington

Zac Plesac

Cal Quantrill

Nick Sanlin

Trevor Stephan

Carlos Vargas

Catchers (3)

Hedges

Lavastida

Naylor

Infielders (11)

Arias

Clement

Tyler Freeman

Gimenez

Nolan Jones

Owen Miller

Jonkensy Noel

Jose Ramirez

Brayan Rocchio

Amed Rosario

Jose Tena

Outfielders (7)

Oscar Gonzalez

Steven Kwan

Josh Naylor

Richie Palacios

Franmil Reyes

Miles Straw

George Valera

That gives us 41 guys.   We currently also have Anthony Castro, Kirk McCarty, Tobias Myers, Yohan Ramirez on the current roster but I think any and all of those guys are expendable given our roster crunch.  Someone will have to go and I can't see who that will be without making a trade or two.  All of the above guys have value and most, including Carlos Vargas (given he is rehabbing at Akron and not at a lower level and can throw triple digits), have value to the ML team in 2023 with Noel being the only one who would be questionably ready next year and that is only because of his low BA this year.

So the bottom line here is that, using this year as a training ground,  we will have a good mix of young players with some experience and some guys at AAA who can impact the roster next year.   However, without trades, we don't have room to add veterans either as free agents or by making trades.   Thus, this winter like last winter the Guardians should use some of their young player capital to make a trade to bring in an impact OF bat.   

Still, even with the guys on the 40-man roster above, it is a solid group of pitchers and some potential in our hitters...and all of them controllable for a lot of years.  As a small market team, that is exactly where you want to be.