Just musing on a Sunday night. Thanks to Guardians Prospective for providing the list of Rule 5eligiblees for this winter's draft. (NOtE: The text below edited to account for my math error n the number of infielders I counted.)
Looking at the list most of the eligible players are not even worth consdering. They are either too low in the minors or not worth considering based on current levels of performance, or both. Going through the list here are the guys we have to protect, in order, and the guys who will probably be prime targets for the Rule 5 ML draft.
Guys who, in a perfect world, should be protected:
1. Bo Naylor
2. Hunter Gaddis
3. Peyton Battenfield
4. Xzavion Curry
5. Joey Cantillo
SUMMARY
Naylor is a lock with the tools he is showing this year. Admittedly, this is his second season at AA so you would expect a bump in his stat line but good catching prospects are hard to find and his tools scream "Protect Me". The other three guys on this list are pitchers. Battenfield will have a full year at AAA under his belt by this winter. Young, successful AAA pitchers get protected.. If you consider Gaddis and Curry starting pitchers I am not sure you would protect them. However, when you see them pitch you could envision them pitching in Cleveland's bullpen as early as this September. They could both be impact relievers next year with the stuff they have. Very few scenarios where these guys would not be protected. Cantillo has not pitched much since we got him in the Clevinger trade but he is coming on now. His stuff isn't overpowering but he is having success in AA as a 22 year old. There is an outside chance he won't be protected but if he keeps pitching like he is now, he will force his way onto the roster this winter.
Guys who are likely to not be protected
1. Angel Martinez
2. Will Brennan
3. Ethan Hankins
4. Nick Mikoajchak
5. Gabriel Rodriguez
6. Andrew Misiaszek
7. Nic Enright
8. Lenny Torres
9. Dayan Frias
10. Micah Pries
11. Ray Delgado
11. Junior Sanquintin
SUMMARY
There are some surprises this list, the type that gives ulcers to prospect buffs like me. Martinez has been a highly ranked prospect the last couple of years but, frankly, he pales in comparison to the likes of Gimenez, Arias and Tyler Freeman to say nothing about proven hitters like Owen Miller and Palacios, who can both play the infield. Brennan, eveyone's pet favorite this year, is essentially Kwan and Palacios and Straw. I didn't like them protecting Kwan last winter and I don't see, given that Brennan doesn't project any better than Kwan, that they would spend a roster spot on him this winter. Hankins and Torres have been highly-ranked prospects for a couple of years with the guardians but they are too low in the minors and too early in their recovery from injuries to give them roster spots. Some teams may take a flyer on them but I hope the their lack of experience and injury history will keep teams from taking a chance. The minor league relievers, Mickoajchak, Misisazek and Enright just don't compare, to me, with the potential of Curry and Gaddis. Generally minor league relievers who aren't throwing 98+ don't attract much interest in the Rule 5. Guys like Rodriguez and Sanquintin have been highly ranked in the past but teams generally don't take a chance in the Rule 5 on guys who are mediocre performers at A ball. I think the Guardians are also managing Rodriguez's ABs and batting him low in the lineup, maybe trying to hide him a little bit.
Guys not on this list who are eligible are not even close enough to the majors to even discuss at this point.
40 man roster this winter
OK, so we know that in a perfect world we need to add 4 guys to the roster this year. Given our roster crunch these would likely only be guys who could break camp with the Guardians or be first callups. I think the four guys above fit that description. But how does that impact the 40-man roster this winter?
Pitchers (20)
Peyton Battenfield
Shane Bieber
Joey Cantillo
Aaron Civale
Emmanuel Clase
Xzavion Curry
Enyel De Los Santos
Hunter Gaddis
Anthony Gose
Sam Hentges
James Karinchak
Triston McKenzie
Eli Morgan
Cody Morris
Konnor Pilkington
Zac Plesac
Cal Quantrill
Nick Sanlin
Trevor Stephan
Carlos Vargas
Catchers (3)
Hedges
Lavastida
Naylor
Infielders (11)
Arias
Clement
Tyler Freeman
Gimenez
Nolan Jones
Owen Miller
Jonkensy Noel
Jose Ramirez
Brayan Rocchio
Amed Rosario
Jose Tena
Outfielders (7)
Oscar Gonzalez
Steven Kwan
Josh Naylor
Richie Palacios
Franmil Reyes
Miles Straw
George Valera
That gives us 41 guys. We currently also have Anthony Castro, Kirk McCarty, Tobias Myers, Yohan Ramirez on the current roster but I think any and all of those guys are expendable given our roster crunch. Someone will have to go and I can't see who that will be without making a trade or two. All of the above guys have value and most, including Carlos Vargas (given he is rehabbing at Akron and not at a lower level and can throw triple digits), have value to the ML team in 2023 with Noel being the only one who would be questionably ready next year and that is only because of his low BA this year.
So the bottom line here is that, using this year as a training ground, we will have a good mix of young players with some experience and some guys at AAA who can impact the roster next year. However, without trades, we don't have room to add veterans either as free agents or by making trades. Thus, this winter like last winter the Guardians should use some of their young player capital to make a trade to bring in an impact OF bat.
Still, even with the guys on the 40-man roster above, it is a solid group of pitchers and some potential in our hitters...and all of them controllable for a lot of years. As a small market team, that is exactly where you want to be.
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