Monday, July 31, 2023

There is 'a buyer's market' ...and then there is 2023

 I have been following the trade deadline activity obviously hoping the Guardians either:

A. Rob somebody 

or

B. Keep the heck out of the chaos.

But what I have seen already is unprecedented, in my opinion.  Contenders are just robbing non-contenders.  Sort of like Robin Hood robbing the poor and giving to the rich.  Please feel free to substitute whatever person/company/government agency you for Robin Hood that you think is appropriate.  

But I digress.

Let's get back to the chaos that is the 2023 trade deadline in MLB where the rich are getting richer and the poor are, well, getting robbed.
  • In my poster child for this trade deadline, the Royals traded Nicky Lopez to Atlanta for Taylor Hearn.  Nobody is going to confuse Lopez with Jose Ramirez or even with Amed Rosario, but Lopez has real value as a 26th man to a team like Atlanta.  Using the analogy I have used in the past to talk about David Fry, I would rather have Lopez than Michael Martinez as my last batter in the 7th game of the WS, although the margin for Lopez over Martinez is much slimmer.   Off-loading Lopez and his close to $3 million salary is not the problem.  It is the return the Royals received.  Taylor Hearn had recently been DFA'd by Texas who sold him to Atlanta who then put him in a game (0.1 IP, 4 ER) and then sent him to the minors...all in the space of a week.  It is this 28-year old AAAA , replacement-level pitcher that Atlanta traded for Lopez, basically meaning that whatever they get from Lopez, even one GW hit for the rest of the season, will make Lopez MUCH more valuable than Hearn will ever be. 
  • Ranal Grichuk and CJ Cron to the Angels for Jake Madden and Mason Abright.  Now, again, these are rental players for LA but the return for these quality rental players are guys who are a long way away from the majors (est. 2026 by MLB Pipeline) and are not good prospects, slotting in at #20 and #21 in a mediocre Rockies farm system.   I know the Angels are on the periphery of the Wild Card race but Grichuk and Cron really can help the Angels in starting roles this year and two starting players, even ones on expiring contracts, is worth more than two B level prospects who are a long way away from the majors.
  • Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton and bonus international slot money for the upcoming international signing period (amount unknown) for John King, Thomas Saggese and Tekoah Roby.  On paper, for two expiring contracts, this doesn't seem like a bad return, with Roby slotting in immediately as the #4 prospect and Saggese at #8 for the Cardinals.  The two kickers are that Roby has not pitched since the beginning of July and that the Cardinals had to pony up international slot money to make this deal happen.  The latter is even more concerning as international slot money is more valuable than actual cash as losing it could limit the quality of players you can sign in the next international signing period this coming January.    The fact that Cardinals had to give ANY money to make this deal happen, a deal in which they got back an injured player and a super utility prospect is interesting to me.  The inclusion of journeyman King just makes this deal more  eye-rolliing as he is just somewhat north of a AAAA pitcher and doesn't appear to be bringing much, if any, present or future value to the Cardinals except as a warm body to take Stratton's spot for the rest of the season.
  • Max Scherzer and a bunch of cash for AA prospect Luisangel Acuna.  Don't get me wrong.  Acuna is a very good prospect, but we are talking about Max Freaking Scherzer here, signed for this year and next.   Plus Acuna is a SS and will have to slide to 2B as the Mets have a SS for like the next 10 years!  This looks like a salary dump by the Mets and, once again, the Rangers get to underpay for a stud pitcher under control for 1.4 years in a situation where the Astros are breathing down their collective neck and they are in dire straits as far as starting pitching.  Heck, the Guardians got more for the expiring contract of CC Sabathia than this, and the Guardians got robbed in that trade (like ANYONE knew that the PTBNL in that trade would turn out to be someone the quality of Michael Brantley).
  • Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez for Edgar Quero and Ky Bush.  While Quero and Bush are highly ranked prospects WITHIN the Angels' system they are NOT highly ranked prospects ad they were not even in the top 100 prospects in baseball and it likely wasn't even close as the top Angels prospect was ranked 63rd in all of baseball (even the depleted by graduation Cleveland farm system had 4 prospects ranked higher than 63rd overall).    Even for expiring contracts, the Angels made out MUCH better in this trade than the White Sox did.
  • Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly for Nick Nastrina, Jordan Leasure and Trayce Thompson.  Thompson as a AAAA player is really just a throw-in to this deal.  So looking at the rest of the trade, the Dodgers got two veteran rentals for the cost, realistically, of Nastrini, the #10 prospect for the Dodgers at the time of the trade (#4 for the depleted WS farm system after the trade) and a minor league reliever lottery ticket in Leasure.  As I have been following the Dodgers' farm system closely this year I can tell you that Nastrini is clearly a second tier prospect, likely to be of Tanner Burns level to put it in perspect and Leasure looks to me like Cade Smith.   While Lynn and Kelly may NOT help the Dodgers at all this year, even if they both crater it won't be like, in my opinion, that Dodgers fans will look back in 4 year and rue this trade as I don't think Nastrini or Leasure will develop into anything more than a #4 starter and middle reliever, if they reach their potential.
  • Kendall Graveman for Korey Lee - While you might consider that Graveman is not worth the $8 million he will be paid next year, Korey Lee is a middling prospect (now #13 in the White Sox system) for a year and a half of Graveman.  You can debate this one if you like but it is not like the White Sox robbed Houston on this one.
SUMMARY

Teams that trade for veterans at this time of year often get burned as either the veteran doesn't help their playoff run or, even if they do, their addition is not enough to get the team to the playoffs and they have, essentially, wasted minor league resources for what ends up to be the same result if they had not made the trade.  In my opinion, this year more than any year I can remember in the past, there will be no short-term or long-term buyers' remorse by the contenders who made these trades.  (Compar to the buyers' remorse we had AT THE TIME when we traded Junior Caminiero for Tobias Myers).  That, alone, makes this buyer's market much more heavy for the buyers, almost comically in some cases, than it has ever been before.  And I thought the CC Sabathia trade was a joke!

I am glad the Guardians have stayed out of this mess, mostly, so far.  at least with Syndergaard we bought a lottery ticket that might help save some our minor league arms the rest of this season., even though I think the chances that the Dodgers are helped more by this trade than the Guardians.  

I hope the Guardians stay out of this mess for the rest of the season and, for that matter with our front office, in the future.  

3 comments:

  1. Can't wait to read your blog when you go off like a bomb about the Civale trade! LOL I don't mind the trade in terms of talent...we probably won. But who the hell is going to start?? We are down to the bare bones WITH Civale!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Explain to me Manzardo's splits this year, his injury, that we have no lineup spot for him in 2024.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The good; he is a good hitter with plus power. Top 75 prospect in baseball. The bad; He is slow and a mediocre defender who plays a position that is already taken, two if you include DH. And he is LH I think we coulda done better in terms of a fit on this team. At least it was not a SS! LOL

    ReplyDelete