Happy 2025!

 To everyone, especially those who read this blog, I wish you a safe and happy new year.  I hope that you will enjoy the actual baseball more and stress about little things less.

Dennis

Roki Sasaki and the Roki Sasaki Fallout

 OK, free agents are being signed left and right and a lot of the FA SP are off the board already.  So you know what that means?

IT'S ROKI SASAKI TIME

So, where does that leave the Guardians?  Let's talk some background first:

• Sasaki, being only 23, will be treated like the 16 year old international free agents.
• Any loophole, over or under the table, that you might think of that could give more affluent franchises the advantage, MLB has language in its rules that closes that possibility. 
• Chiba, his present team, will receive a posting fee of 25% of his eventual bonus 
• The Guardians' pool for international FAs is $6,908,600.  8 teams have $7,555,500 (A's, Reds, Tigers, Twins, Marlins, Brewers, Mariners, Rays).  All the rest have the same or less than the Guardians.
• Teams can start signing international free agents on Jan. 15th and AFTER THAT DATE can trade for more international bonus pool money, in increments up to $250,000 and can increase their international bonus pool by up to 50% (some sources say 60%).  So, for example, if the Guardians wanted to trade players for international pool money, they could, theoretically, increase their bonus pool to $10,362,900 but that would have to involve 14 trades!  Just to get to equal footing with the top tier of teams who have the $7,555,500 bonus allotment this year, they would have to make 3 trades where they acquired the $250,000 max per trade.
• As a final way to avoid any funny business, MLB will simply not approve any signing that exceeds the bonus pool of a team.
• Sasaki has set January 25th as when he will make his decision, strategically giving teams a chance to increase their bonus pool for him by making trades to acquire money after January 15th.  
• International signings of $10,000 or less do not count against a team's bonus pool.  Those signings above $10,000 all count against a team's pool.  Teams, supposedly, have deals in place with players way ahead of the signing period, including bonus amounts. 
• The information I have read shows that the Guardians, who are linked to 25 players for the upcoming signing period, have committed to the following bonuses.
• Hiverson Lopez - $900,000
• Heins Brito - $800,000
• In the 2024 signing period they used all but roughly $400,000 of their bonus pool and traded most of the rest of it away during the season.  So, even though we only see $1.7 million committed so far, there could be a lot more in bits and pieces that could add up to closer to their current pool of close to $7 million

So, that is where we stand right now.  Let's talk about things that MIGHT happen and signs that we should be watching for as we go over the next 3 weeks:

1. Teams might hold off on signing their other international free agents if they think they have a good chance to sign Sasaki
2. Teams may start trading away players for international bonus pool money.  Any trade made before January 15th can't include 2025 international bonus money.
3. You could see something rarely seen in international signing periods: players could jump from the team they were supposed to sign with to another team if the team they were supposed to sign with is delaying their signing or asking them to take less money so they can save money to sign Sasaki.

This entire process is very rare.  For people who follow these international signings closely they will likely see things they may never have seen.

It will be interesting...more so if the Guardians sign Sasaki.

For me, I am torn.  The Guardians have made promises to these kids about signing them and about the bonus amounts they will be given.  Ethics would say stick to those promises.  However, very few, if any, of these kids will even make the majors.  So sign 24 players who are 16 years old or one player who is a stud pitcher who is ML ready and has ace potential and, either not sign the kids or stiff them on their bonuses.  

2025 Roster - What Makes Sense and What Doesn't

 OK, it's the hot stove.  Fans of the Guardians love to project lineups and rosters.  So let's do the same. Here are some ground rules I will use in mine.

• No free agent signings that only provide likely or possible incremental improvement over internal options. The trades they made so far made this team anywhere from incrementally to somewhat weaker than last year.  You don't get to spend precious dollars just to recoup those losses, especially with the meager returns from those trades.
• No trades to bring in veterans. Same philosophy.  You lost talent and you don't get to trade prospects to get talent back.
• No moves that bring in platoon players.   You're roster has 13 position players.  You have used up 10 with your 9 starters and Hedges.  There is no room to waste a roster spot on a half-time (or less) player.  Utility players are the way to go for those last 3 spots UNLESS you sign one full-time RFer.  
• No relief pitchers on major league deals.  Hey, bring in a few relief pitchers who are as quality if you can get them on minor league deals.  But you just traded away, for very little return, 2 solid middle relievers who weren't going to cost you a lot.  As I said above you just can't double back and spend money on more expensive relievers.  We tried that with Barlow.  How did that work?
• No starting pitcher a major league deal who is worse than your current #2 starter. Look, you always need more pitching.  But this proviso says go big or go home.  You have enough warm bodies already.  Maybe Quantrill or Carrasco or Lorenzen on a minor league deal.
• We need a star - Look, we need someone to hit cleanup who is GOOD at hitting cleanup.  Santana is a #6 hitter at this point of his career.  Lane Thomas is exposed at 4 or 5. Manzardo and Noel are essentially rookies and rookies don't hit 4th because they can't be expected to put fear into the hearts of pitchers.  Therefore, they are no protection for Jose. Santander is a switch hitter, he hit cleanup all last year and he is a RFer.  Everything we need.  And he makes our lineup.  No other FA outfielders are anything more than trying to fit a square peg in a round hole or as a platoon or incremental improvement.  Santander is it.  

So, with those provisos, I have looked at all the prominent and less prominent and less prominent options and here is what I see the lineup and 26-man roster looking like in 2025.

Lineup:

1. Kwan LF

2. Brito 2B

3. Ramirez 3B

4. Santander RF

5. Manzardo DH

6. Santana 1B

7. Thomas CF

8. Naylor C

9. Rocchio SS

Bench:

Hedges - C

Freeman (likely) or Arias - Utility IFer - backup middle infielder and utility player

Noel (likely) or Brennan - Extra OFer - Prioritize power and versatility over experience.  Probably Fry once he is healthy

Angel Martinez (likely) or Schneeman - Utility IF/OF - Switch hitter over LHH.  

Rotation:

1. Bibee

2. Ortiz

3. Williams

4. Lively

5. McKenzie

Bullpen:

1. Clase

2. Smith

3. Gaddis

4. Herrin

5. Sabrowski

6. Walters

7. Avila

8. Aleman (Stephan when he is healthy)

Summary

So there you have it.  One FA signing makes this lineup better.  You are still banking on Brito being better than Gimenez, overall, and Santana being as good as Naylor with both of the replacement (Brito, Santana) maybe fitting in better and accepting lesser roles than Naylor and Gimenez would have been.  

Thoughts For A Snowless Christmas Eve

 When you live where I live, cloudy and below average temperatures are about as close as you get to a white Christmas.  

That being said, the prevailing weather still gives me a chance to look outside and reflect on what has transpired so far in the Guardians' off-season...and to look ahead at what this SHOULD mean for the rest of the off-season.

Guardsfest

The off-season started with the Guardians cancelling the next 2 winter festivals, claiming that it is what fans said they wanted.  That, of course, is not true and it came to light that the move was totally based on them trying to save money.   That was not a good way to start the off-season if you were a Guards fan who realized how much extra money the team made this year from increased attendance and making it to the ALCS.

Trading Eli Morgan

While this wasn't a huge move, it signaled that management thought we had an excess of relievers and, so, they were comfortable with dumping Morgan as they felt we had a lot of depth in the reliever core AND WILL NOT NEED TO TRADE FOR RELIEF PITCHERS.  This was re-emphasized by the fact that our return from this trade was an outfielder who was 3-5 years away from playing in the majors, if he ever makes it at all.  

Rule 5 Draft

I mention this so I can once again say that I will never, ever doubt the FO in who they choose to protect or not protect in the Rule 5.  Frankly, there was no way this could have gone better for Cleveland.

Trading Gimenez and Sandlin to Toronto

The reason for this trade was a salary dump.  Looking at the trade we also had to throw in Nick Sandlin to dump the remaining 5 years of Gimenez's salary, indicating that we were very motivated to dump money and, once again, signaling that the FO thinks we have more than enough RH ML relief pitchers.  The return on this trade was a 27-year old 1B/2B with one real season of ML experience and a minor league OFer likely of the same pedigree and ability as Joe Lampe.   Clearly, the return for Gimenez and Sandlin were not important and the FO, by their own admission, believes that our internal options can provide as much value, or more, than Gimenez.

Trading Horwitz for Ortiz and Two Pitching Prospects

Horwitz, the centerpiece of the trade that cost us Gimenez and Sandlin, was traded to Pittsburgh for a ML SP, Luis Ortiz and two decent pitching prospects.  This, on the surface, looks like an incredibly good deal for Cleveland.  The two pitching prospects they received have lots of control left before they reach Rule 5 eligibility and Ortiz had a really good year in 2024, including a dominant start against Cleveland.  Still, you have to wonder how Horwitz could be worth this much.  When I look at this trade I am waiting for the other shoe to drop.  No way is Pittsburgh that stupid to give up a guy like Ortiz for Horwitz, let alone two pitching prospects.  The peripherals surrounding Ortiz's 2024 season suggest he is set for a downturn in 2025.  This matches the fact that he was included as one of three pieces for Horwitz.  

Trading Josh Naylor and signing Carlos Santana

As I have said previously, trading Josh Naylor is NOT the problem.  Clearly everything poionted to them dumping him.  The issue was, as with the Cubs and Toronto trades, was how the return on those trades was going to help the Guardians in 2025.  As with both the Gimenez and Morgan trades, that return is non-helpful to 2025.  The acquisition of Santana ONLY makes sense if we can fill other needs on our roster.  We needed more starting pitching who could immediately improve our rotation in 2025.  We needed a corner outfielder with power.  We needed a quality LH reliever.  None of those needs were addressed in ANY of these three trades.  Hey, signing Santana as a replacement for Naylor is not the issue.  It is the combination of the return for Naylor PLUS Santana that has to be a win for Cleveland in 2025.  Sadly, it is not even close, leaving the FO supporters on the internet grasping for indications on how Slade Cecconi is really better than his 6.66 ERA in 2024 would indicate.  Well, maybe they can make him better but let's face it.  There is little or no chance that Cecconi was highly valued by Arizona and there is little to no chance that he will be able to fix whatever is mechanically wrong with him by 2025 opening day, meaning that his use in the majors at that moment will likely lead to mostly losses where he buries his team so badly that they will never be able to score enough runs to offset his bad performance.  And our offense is hurt by substituting Santana for Naylor.  How much is a question.  Clearly the FO believes that Santana's overall game is = or > Naylor's in 2025 as the return on this deal actually did nothing to help the team in 2025 IF Santana, at 39 years old, has a downturn in his performance in 2025.

Summary

Hey, this off-season can still be saved if we sign Anthony Santander and Roki Sasaki.  But right now our team is weaker than it was at the end of the 2024 season.  Also, if we thought that it was a good idea to trade away position players with good resumes for essentially nothing, there should be ZERO need to trade valuable prospect assets to backfill positions you just vacated or failed to fill when you traded away the players you have this off-season.  So, to me, the only path left is free agency.  The Guardians have to open their wallets and sign quality hitters and maybe a quality SP.  They need to do this without having to dump other salaries. 

This fanbase and the players on this team deserve the best effort possible by management to make this a competitive team. So far this off-season, that has not happened.

I am waiting for the other shoe to drop and, unlike to this point in the off-season, it should clearly be a good next move instead of a continued series of contradictory, non-sensical movess.  

We deseerve better than that.

So Josh Naylor, Too?

 Josh Naylor was traded today.  

That should really not surprise anyone.  We all know that players approaching their final year of control who won't sign an extension with the Guardians are likely to be traded.

So, let's assume we had to trade him.  The goal should have been to get something back that will help this team be stronger in 2025.

If you include our free agent signing we got back:

• Carlos Santana
• Santana will be 39 this season.  Naylor will be 27 and, in his walk year, would have been highly motivated to have a great year.
• Santana will actually be paid about the same or a little more than Naylor this year.
• While his WAR was higher, Santana is not a power hitter with a good part of his offensive value being a good batting eye.  But for him to be effective there has to be someone to drive HIM in.  
• Santana hit cleanup a handful of times this year, hitting mostly 6th, 5th, 7th and 8th in that order.  He is not a cleanup hitter.  But he is replacing one.
• Santana has to play all the time to make his contract worth it.  No way he platoons with Manzardo as you don't pay the short side of a platoon $12 million.   Thus some young player is going to lose ABs because Santana will play...a lot.
• Slade Cecconi
• He had a 6.66 ERA last year for Arizona.  He is a project, to be sure.  He is not nearly a finished ML pitcher and will likely need some in development, meaning his true worth won't be known until 2026 and any reps he gets this year have a real good chance to hurt our chances of winning games.
• Arizona's Competitive Balance B pick.  
• Currently the 72nd overall pick, which will add about $1.2 million to our budget pool, if you count the increase from 2024 and us adding in the 5% overage.

To me, the important question is did this trade (and the signing of Santana) make us a better team in 2025? For the answer to be 'yes' the following would have to happen:

• Santana would have to repeat his 2024 season.
• Santana would have to provide Jose Ramirez the same protection in the lineup that Naylor did or, I guess, someone else would have to step into the 4 hole and provide Ramirez that protection.
• Naylor would have to tank like he did towards the end of 2024
• Cecconi would have to some quality role in our 2025 ML team.
• We would have to backfill Naylor's offense somewhere else in the lineup

Unfortunately, for me, none of these 5 things seem likely.  Even if you want to look at intangibles, I doubt that the veteran leadership Santana brings offsets the intensity and production that Naylor brought.  I don't think that any pitchers will say 'Man, I have to pitch to Ramirez because Santana is a great guy in the clubhouse'.  If it works out the way I think it will, Ramirez's production will drop this year as he tries to do more than he already tries to do.  I could see him hitting .260 with 25 HRs in 2025 just because people won't pitch to him.  While those numbers aren't bad, he hit 39 HRs in 2024.  

So, there have to be other moves and here are my thoughts on them:

• We need to get an impact OF bat to offset the loss of Naylor's production and protect Jose.
• We need another SP but only through free agency.  With how we have hurt the offensive production of this team with no guarantee we can replace what we have lost, there is not reason to overspend in a trade where we give up prospects and get a ML SP back.  We could be out of the race by June and those prospects will then be wasted as the SP we obtain will not have any meaningful impact on our season.
• We need a veteran LH reliever in free agency.  Counting on Sabrowski is a foolish move.
• We need to get a couple of veteran RH RP on minor league deals (e.g. Enyel De Los Santos and Luke Jackson)

In summary, I think this trade along with that of Gimenez, move us a lot closer to having a lottery pick in the 2026 amateur draft.  So, have some confidence that if these questionable moves hurt our record like I am pretty sure they at least they will, in a twisted way, help our competitiveness in 2029.

The Cleveland Guardians are weaker right now than they were at the end of the 2024 season.  Unless there are good moves, ones that bring in good players without costing us prospects, coming by spring training, we have a real good chance to be out of the race before Beiber is ready to pitch.

Thoughts for A Thursday - Non-roster invites and Minor League Signings

 OK, just taking a few minutes to muse over the current roster and what we need to do for the rest of the off-season.

VETERANS TO BE ADDED TO THE ROSTER OR INVITED TO ST ON A MINOR LEAGUE DEAL

• We need at least one more legitimate starting pitcher on a ML deal and one on a minor league deal.  We COULD obtain one through trade using prospects or through free agency. 
•  Looking at available FA starters I would focus on:
• Roki Sasaki (mine and, likely, most peoples' personal choice)
• Kyle Gibson (not as enticing now that Gimenez has been traded)
• Patrick Sandoval (probably available for Griffin Canning-like money or a minors deal)
• Carlos Carrasco (minor league deal)
• Spencer Turnbull (minor league deal)
• Cal Quantrill (minor league deal)
• Looking at available starters through trade
• Jesus Lazardo (I think this one is possible if the Marlins will take not-quite-ready for the ML prospects (Genao, Kayfus, Halpin)
• Dylan Cease (I don't like this one although dealing with San Diego has worked out in the past)
• We need a TRUE #3 catcher on a minor league deal.  Dom Nunez is NOT that.  I don't ever want to see him in the majors unless we have 3 catchers on the IL.  Functionally, we have one (Fry) on the IL.  Both Hedges AND Naylor would have to be on the IL for me to call up Nunez so we need one more catcher.   We should sign 2, both on minor league deals.  Here's a list.
• Bryan Lavastida (I might even go with a ML deal if we could find the roster space as he knows our pitchers)
• Max Stassi
• Curt Casali
• Yan Gomes
• We need an impact bat in the outfield.  I would go free agency on this one, as there are enough guys I think we can sign one. The guys, in order, that I would try to go after, with most on major league deals unless otherwise noted.
• Anthony Santander (pipe dream, I know, but he fits so well with what we need.  This is a move that really locks out Noel and JRod from playing, something that the Guardians have said is NOT the kind of addition they are lookng for)
• Austin Hays (a stretch in RF but I like the bat, although I don't know how we get Noel or JRod ABs if we sign Hays)
• Randal Grichuk (minor league deal, same issue with Noel and JRod)
• Jesse Winker (I REALLY don't like this one because I think Brennan is just as good an option but I guess, on a minor league deal, it couldn't hurt to kick the tires)
• We need one competent LH reliever and a couple of competent RH relief depth guys.  Not like our usual depth guys who are the leftovers of AAAA after every other team has had their pick.  We need to strike early here.  A few examples would be:
• Matt Moore, LHP (minor league deal)
• Enyel De Los Santos, RHP (minor league deal)
• James Karinchak, RHP (minor league deal)
• Luke Jackson, RHP (minor league deal)
• Ryan Borucki, LHP (minor league deal)

NON-ROSTER INVITEES 

In addition to the veterans on minor league deals who we sign, some quality minor leaguers are invited to ST.  Here are some thoughts about guys I would like to see:

• Travis Bazzana - 2B
• Cooper Ingle - C
• Jacob Cozart - C
• CJ Kayfus - 1B/OF
• Kody Huff - C
• Nick Mikolajczak - RH RP
• Andrew Misiaszek - LH RP
• Ryan Webb - LH RP (was a closer in college)
• Alaska Abney - RH RP
• Tommy Mace - RH SP
• Aaron Davenport - RH SP

Almost all the pitchers in the group above would be auditioning for possible relief roles during the season.  

Thoughts For A Tuesday - What Are These People Thinking Post

 JOSH NAYLOR TRADE PROPOSALS

I am constantly amazed at the trade proposals that are brought forward by 'experts' at this time of year.

Let's look at the proposals so far for Josh Naylor:

• Naylor for Trent Grisham and Will Warren
• Naylor for Will Warren and Clayton Beeter
• Naylor for Cade Smith and Jorbit Vivas

All you have to do is look at what each of these trades would do to the chances of the two teams making the playoffs and having a run in said playoffs.  

• For Cleveland, unless they backfill Naylor's production, it basically will kill their playoff chances.  The pitchers and position players proposed will likely not help us this season and tend to be low ceiling, high floor guys. At best, they will keep the ship afloat so we can finish close to .500.    Grisham is expecially comical.  Having seen Grishamm for multiple years in San Diego, I would rather have Myles Straw.  We already have sunk money into the latter.
• For the Yankees this dramatically increases both the chances of making the playoffs and the chances of returning to the World Series.

But that's really what you see over the winter from 'experts'.  Trades that will help their team win because they think Cleveland wants to dump high salaries and don't care about winning.  Or that it doesn't matter what Cleveland wants because they don't deserve to be in the playoffs, anyway.  Yeah, right!

But my favorite came from a Guardians' fan:

• Josh Naylor and a reliever (presumably Hunter Gaddis) for Jasson Dominguez

This is especially comical because the Yankees overhype their prospects and trading for Dominguez, who isn't even ML-ready yet (and my never be, really), despite his high prospect rating (#14 in MLB), will likely not help us win in 2025. C'mon, guys.  Have a little more respect for our team than that!

WE HAVE ENOUGH RELIEVERS!  REALLY???

After trading Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin I was chastised when I said we couldn't afford to trade any more relievers.  Well, here are our relievers for 2025 on the 40-man roster:

• Franco Aleman
• Pedro Avila 
• Emmanuel Clase
• Nic Enright
• Hunter Gaddis
• Tim Herrin
• Erik Sabrowski
• Cade Smith
• Trevor Stephan (may be available in May)
• Andrew Walters

That is 9 relievers who will be available on opening day with 4 of them (Aleman, Enright, Sabrowski and Walters) having little or ZERO ML experience and the other 5 (Avila, Gaddis, Herrin, Smith, Clase) all were overused in 2024.  Aleman and Stephan are coming off of injuries.  Plus Avila was DFA'd last year, so, there's that.  And Hentges and likely Espino will be on the IL most or all of the year.

So, right now, we are not in great shape in the bullpen.  Ah, but people say we have other guys who might be able to work out of the bullpen:

• Lively
• McKenzie
• Cantillo
• Logan Allen

Maybe.  But, really?  You want to try to patchwork BOTH your rotation AND your bullpen?  When you lineup is sub-optimal offensively and worse defensively than last year, with the latter not being even particularly close, IMO.  Really?

And you want to trade MORE relief pitching to fill other gaps?  No way.

THAT'S YOUR BACKUP PLAN AT CATCHER...REALLY???

The Guardians signed 30 year old Dom Nunez to a minor league deal.

He represents the next man up as a ML catcher if either Naylor or Hedges get hurt.

Nunez is who he is.  He's a AAAA player who can't hit in the major leagues and should be at AAA (or AA) to work with our young pitchers and give our catching prospects a breather.

He should be probably the third option for a callup to the majors in case of an emergency.  Not the first.

We need to re-sign Bryan Lavastida.  I wanted to add him to the roster before the roster freeze and we didn't do it.  So he lingers on the FA market.

I am truly tired of these AAAA relievers, AAAA catchers being top options as injury replacements in the majors.  We are on a razor's edge as to whether we qualify for the playoffs.  We can't be in a position where we are giving games away just because we haven't planned well to have quality depth options at AAA to be called up in case of injuries.

Imagine a universe where your catching duo/platoon is Austin Hedges and Dom Nunez!  Can we have the pitchers hit and DH for the catcher position?

This seems to be the MO of the Guardians.  Sign really bad AAAA players to minor league contracts thinking that you can bring them up for a few days and DFA them without losing much talent.  Roster flexibility over competitiveness.  Not a way to win a championship, IMO.

Thoughts For A Friday - Rule 5/Roster Freeze Promise, Trade Fallout and Potpourri

 RULE 5 DRAFT

I have said it elsewhere but will say it here for posterity.   I will NEVER, EVER, EVER question the Guardians FO (at least when Antonnetti is around) when it comes to roster freeze day and the Rule 5 draft.  

Whether it was dumb luck or whether it was reading the room, the Guardians did not lose any of the pitching prospects I felt they might lose.  

Congrats to the FO for knowing the Rule 5 and what teams are looking for.  I thought with the Mitch Spence success from the 2023 R5, teams might be on pitchability pitchers who were ready or close to ready to immediately move into ML rotations.

But, as often happens in the R5, I have no clue what teams are looking for and neither do most experts.  

So, we move on next year and keep Webb, Davenport, Denholm, Abney, Mace, Mikolajchak, Misiaszek, Hanner and others who can and likely will (if we stop the infernal AAAA pitcher train from ever leaving the station) impact our 2025 ML roster at some point.

As far as the minor league portion, there was nothing to see there.  If Will Wilson, with our middle infield prospect backup, ever sees the Guardians' ML roster I will be amazed.  I would have rather have some slow developing, low A, flyer pitcher with a big fastball who we could put into our pitching lab to straighten him out.  

BTW, do people realize that Justin Campbell, our 2022 Comp A pick, will be eligible for the R5 in 2025 and he has not even thrown a single professional pitch due to injury.   There HAD to be someone out there like this in 2024 that we could have latched on to.

But, who am I to second-guess our R5 braintrust.  Don't know if it will stay this way due to people moving on to promotions in other organizations but, right now, they are the best in the majors, in my opinion, at 40 man roster management in anticipation of the R5 draft.

TRADES AFTERMATH

Some thoughts about these trades:

• Dumping Gimenez to save money sounds cheap, especially on the heels of the Guards Fest announcement and with the surface uncertainty about their finances due to the TV deal situation. 
• There appear to be two very polarized sides of the debate about the Gimenez to Toronto trade
• Gimenez's defense is more valuable than people think
• Gimenez's salary in the future wasway overpaying for his offensive production.

I tend to fall on the cheap side.  Yes, paying Gimenez up to $23 million a year for his current production is untenable for a cheap, small market club like Cleveland.  With a low and rock solid budget line we just couldn't keep him if we planned to do other, expensive side.  But the key to do is that we HAVE to spend the savings from dumping his contract.  That is, we have to do one or both of two things to make this trade make sense:

• Play the long game and sign Kwan and Bibee to extensions.  By this I mean that they pray they can get enough production out of our second base prospects that their offense offets thair defensive liability (rated against what Gimenez brings).  But even if they can't they have at least locked up their core to build a championship-caliber roster over the next couple of years with reinforcements from the minors and other veteran-for-prospects trades with Josh Naylor and/or Lane Thomas.
• Play the shorter game and use the money to bring in (either in FA or  trade) high-priced starting pitchers to keep us in contention until Beiber and Stephan come back and/or we get reinforcements from Columbus.

We absolutely have to.  If we don't do that this winter we are NOT trying to win or create a championship roster.  Our owner is simply selling off players to make money...or avoid the risk of possibly losing money (if you factor in the incredibly cheap and shortsighted cancellation of Guards Fest).  The ownership has to know the fans are watching.  If they think the fans will drink the koolaid and keep showing up in the face of self-serving profiteering by Dolan, I think they will find out otherwise.

PLAYERS WE RECEIVED IN THE TRADES

I want to break this down into 2 parts: players we got from Toronto and those we got from Pittsburgh.

The return from Toronto was undeniably light.  We recieve a Will-Brennan-like OF prospect in Mitchell and a guy, Horwitz, so far down the depth chart in Toronto that they didn't even have a defensive spot for him and his middling bat.  Twenty-seven year old players don't just burst on the scene and become 55 grade major leaguers (like Gimenez was). They become bit players or platoon players.  The fact that we had to include Sandlin (who should have, himself, brought back AT LEAST Mitchell) was disturbing.

But then we traded with Pittsburgh.  I applaud turning Horwitz into 3 legitimate pitchers.  But there are a few comments on want to make on this trade.

• Do you really think that Horwitz was worth THREE guys of the quality that we received?
• Do you really think that Pittsburgh, if they thought these three pitchers were quality, would have EVER given them up for Horwitz, who was older and has not shown the ability to even be a ML regular, let alone a GOOD MLer?  If you answered yes because you think Pittsburgh is just that stupid or yes because you think Horwitz is better than he is...then you and I will just have to disagree.

So, what we have left, IMO, is the occam's razor answer that Ortiz is overrated and will likely become Logan Allen part deux in 2025 and that Hartle will be the middling prospect who never turns out and Kennedy will be, at best, Bresnahan.  As far as Mitchell, we have my Will Brennan comparison.

All that being said, these trades do two things that headscratching, apparently salary dump trades made by small market teams tend to do:

• They bring in someone like Ortiz that, if he hits (Clase in the salary dump of Kluber is an example) the FO looks like geniuses, even if logic and analytics question if he was just lucky in 2024.  I think a prime example of how our eyes can fool us is when Cleveland traded blocked thirdbase prospect Kevin Kouzmanoff for Josh Barfield after Barfield's magnificent rookie season in San Diego's cavernous ballpark.  No way any of us thought that would turn out as badly as it did...but that was before analytics, LOL.
• They contain players (Mitchell and Kennedy) who are so far away from the majors that the axiom about not being able to really judge a trade for 5 years is still in play. Including Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene in the Lindor deal was an example of this.

So, there you have it.  I am not a fan of these trades because I think they represent smoke and mirrors return that we won't really be able to characterize as that for years to come.  They also involve this team HOPING that a rookie can produce more offensively than Gimenez (something I really doubt is true for Arias, Freeman, Brito or Martienz) without losing so much defense that the switch is a net negative.

One thing is for sure, IMO: These trades make us worse in 2025 than we were, salary savings notwithstanding.  The only way, to me, this all makes sense is IF we can extend Kwan and Bibee AND buy some quality starting pitching for 2025.  Otherwise, we have made the 2025 team weaker.  Things are so close in the AL Central that even incremental losses in competitiveness will be enough to keep us out of the playoffs even if EVERY player performs at the level they did in 2024.  

And we can't afford to waste years in our current competitive window.

So, FO, we are counting on you to pull several rabbits out of your hat in the next 2+ months.  You are OK'd to begin. :-)

It's Rule 5 day. But let's start by talking about the trades yesterday

 OK, I will make this as quick as I can.  

• The trade of Andres Gimenez made the 2025 Guardians a weaker team as the loss of his defense will cost this offensively-challenged team a lot of runs next year.

• We made this trade even though we have no proven prospect to take over second base.  We don't even know if guys like Brito or Martinez or Freeman (or even Arias) can even hit at the level that Gimenez did and we sure as heck know that they can't play defense as well.  Brito probably isn't even an average second baseman and never will be.

• This was clearly a salary dump, pure and simple.  Gimenez was overpaid, to be sure, and it was only getting worse.  But instead of trading a bad contract for Gimenez's bad contract we got a journeyman that Toronto didn't need or have a place for and a marginal outfield prospect

• We then traded that journeyman (Horwitz) to Pittsburgh for three pitchers.  One of them, Ortiz, pitched in the majors last year and did well, statistically. The other two are legitimate prospects being ranked 15th and 17th in the Pirates' system.    But you have to ask yourself this: how good could Ortiz and these two pitching prospects be if the Pirates were willing to trade the three of them for a journeyman who has not even established himself as a ML regular after 6 seasons in pro ball after playing 3 years in college?   Think of the haul we thought we got for Will Benson (Boyd and Hajjar) until we found out what non-prospects those two guys were.  Heck, they weren't even good enough to be solid organizational players.   I remember when we got Barfield for Kouzmanoff.  It looked like a steal at the time for Cleveland but we soon found out that Barfield wasn't really a major leaguer in talent.  The trade with Pittsburgh feels a lot like that.

• Trading for Mitchell makes protecting Petey Halpin and leaving Ryan Webb (and other 2021 draft picks) exposed to the Rule 5 this year look even more stupid, as now Mitchell and Halpin are redundant...and there is no way Halpin would have been picked in the Rule 5...but Webb will be.

• We will likely lose Webb and maybe others today for nothing when we had to trade to get a guy in the Pittsburgh trade today (Hartle) who is very similar.  For those keeping score, it DOES NOT offset the loss of Webb for essentially nothing because we traded for Hartle at the cost of our all-star second baseman. Ditto for Ortiz who is who Webb will be in 2026.   We traded Gimenez to get Ortiz when we would have been in the same place, at least in 2026 and maybe in 2025, if we had just protected Webb.  Again, one gain does not cancel out one loss because the loss includes trading away Gimenez.

• The loss of Bresnahan for Cobb last year is NOT offset by us obtaining Michael Kennedy in the Pittsburgh trade today.  Getting Kennedy at the expense of years of gold glove defense from Gimenez isn't even comparable to getting 4 starts from Cobb for Bresnahan.  Not even close.

In summary, the moves made on Tuesday make Cleveland a weaker team in 2025.  The players we got back were similar to prospects we had already so there was no tangible improvement in our farm system.  So nothing good came out of the trades today except that Dolan saved a lot of money.

And that, my friends, along with the cheap-ass move of cutting Guardsfest, which cost about the same over 3 years as one year of a rookie's salary and alienated a lot of fans and future fans who may not buy tickets to games now and in the future, is how you take a 92-69 team and make it weaker in a division that is getting stronger just because you have to save a buck and, in so doing, alienate some of the best fans in baseball!

Payroll Floor? I Didn't Know We Had One

Taking a little time out from my all Rule 5, all the time recent postings to talk about something that is, at the same time, one of my most favorite and least favorite subjects: mandated minimum total player payroll amount, otherwise known as a salary (or payroll) floor

Interesting report from BaseballTradeRumors today:

Athletics Risk MLBPA Grievance Without Further Payroll Increases - MLB Trade Rumors

Turns out, if you receive revenue sharing, you DO have a salary floor.  

For Oakland, since they will receive a full revenue share for the first time in 2025 ($70 million) they have to have a 2025 payroll of at least $105 million as their payroll have to be at least $150% of the amount of revenue sharing they receive.

Thus the unexpected signing of Severino and maybe some more FA signings in the future may be making more sense for a nomadic team with no intention of making a playoff run in 2025.

Not knowing how much revenue sharing the Guardians get it is possible that they may have a salary floor of $105 million, as well.  But their projected 2025 payroll now stands at an interesting $97 million level (after the Gimenez trade), which would be just over that $105 million threshold if, indeed, they receive a $70 million revenue share.

Payroll Floor

I have posted previously how much I hate this concept.  Oakland is the perfect example, signing quality free agents and paying them a lot of money just to meet the minimum team payroll required by the latest CBA.  They could extend players to up that payroll but I am pretty sure that players like Brent Rooker will see that coming and would ask for more money than Oakland would want to pay. 

Bottom line: the payroll floor, if it is applied the way the MLBPA wants it to be applied, makes teams that have no chance of being competitive spend their money on players just to pay those players more than they would likely get in a completely open market.

Instead of this I propose the following:

• create a payroll floor like has been proposed
• calculate the international signing pool amounts and draft budget amounts the way they are normally calculated
• If a team chooses to go under their payroll floor they must add 25% of that underage to their international signing pool, 25% to their draft budget, with the rest of the underage being split between other revenue sharing teams to be split evenly between their international and draft pools

So, instead of overpaying major leaguers teams that will not be competitive, simply spend where they should: on obtaining talent they can develop to be competitive in the future and be forced to give some of your revenue sharing dollars to other teams in your same situation.

Is this unfair to the larger market teams with good revenue streams?  Absolutely.  But at least we know teams are going in the right direction in terms of developing.  The additional dollars in draft pools offset the effect of NIL money, at least somewhat, and it gives the weaker teams more money to sign international free agents who are posted by their foreign teams at a young age.

2024 Rule 5 - Part 8 - It's December 10th - We'll Find Out Tomorrow, I Guess

 A few thoughts as we head into Rule 5 Day

• PREDICTION: This R5 draft is going to be a blood bath for the Guardians.  They will likely have 3 players drafted away from them in the ML portion.  I think 3 is solid but more than that could be possible if teams see relief prospects that they value.  Normally it is the Yankees who are hit hard but some of that comes from Yankees guys being taken early and it just snowballing.  That might happen to Cleveland this year.  It is pretty easy to predict that this will be the most damaging Rule 5 drafts ever for the Guardians. The minor league portion is a big question mark but I would think 2-3 would be a reasonable number and, given how flat our talent level is in our farm system, it may be guys you don't even suspect would be available in the minor league portion as we may simply run out of room to protect guys on the Columbus reserve list.

• IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER: The Guardians have been really, really good at protecting prospects who might be taken in the Rule 5.  Aside from losing Kevin Kelly, who is a prototypical middle relief guy, they haven't lost much in the recent past, with the last significant player lost being Anthony Santander, who was lost as an unlikely selection (injured, low A ball player in 2016).  Aside from minmizing their losses in the R5, they have also recently made some surprising and shrewd additions to their roster on the freeze day and those players (Cade Smith and Tim Herrin) have payed big dividends almost right away.  In the last 2 years they left other, high profile prospects available and those prospects were either not taken in the R5 or were returned to the Guardians. Yes, Oscar Gonzalez would have been picked in 2021 if there had been a R5 draft, but they did protect a number of guys that year who would likely have been picked.  In addition to minimizing Rule 5 losses, the Guardians have also made some recent quality R5 draft picks.  Trevor Stephan turned out to be a very astute pick. Deyvison De Los Santos, who is flirting now with being one of the top prospects in all of baseball, was their pick last year although they had to return him this past spring to keep Esteban Florial.  So, while their evaluation process for major league hitters may be in question, we should have some faith that they know what they are doing in protecting and picking in the Rule 5.  History has shown that!

• BAD ASSET MANAGEMENT - That being said, protecting Petey Halpin over Ryan Webb makes no sense. Halpin was not the profile of a ML R5 draft pick.  Webb was (see Mitch Spence the A%1 overall R5 pick from 2023).  Heck, continuing to protect Will Brennan, who is either too stubborn or too incapable of making changes that will up him from his current AAAA player status, instead of Aaron Davenport is almost as big a travesty.  There is a great deal of angst for me leaving exposed to the Rule 5 a number of high draft pick and/or high performing, 2021-drafted, polished college pitchers who likely can pitch in the majors in 2025.  Developing this many talented arms and leaving them dangling as Rule 5 fodder screams to me: POOR ASSET MANAGEMENT PLAN.  It is pretty likely that this poor planning will end up with them losing significant prospect(s) in the Rule 5. 

• GEORGE VALERA - Maybe I am wrong but I truly believe that he is Rule 5 eligible.  I doubt he gets selected as teams could have had him for free with no Rule 5 strings attached after the Guardians released him.  However, any minor leaguer on the reserve list of a team who is Rule 5 eligible based on service time can be drafted in the Rule 5.  Valera is not an exception.  If he was, more teams would try to use that loophole.  So, when he doesn't get selected, realize why that is the case.

More tonght as I explore Cleveland's history in the Rule 5 and then tomorrow morning as I detail the Rule 5 results and the meaning of those results as it applies to the Guardians.  Until then, keep your fingers crossed and hope Oakland, the White Sox and Colorado have full 40 man rosters by tomorrow morning.

2024 Rule 5 - Part 7 - Roster Day Freeze Hangover Thoughts

 OK, a couple of nights to think on this and here are my thoughts:

• Absolutely stupid not protecting Ryan Webb as opposed to Petey Halpin.  Halpin did not do much better in his 2nd year at AA.  He doesn't steal bases, he doesn't walk, he doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for average.  He would NOT have been selected in the ML Rule 5 draft and even if he had, he would have been returned as he is not yet ready for the major leagues.  And, even if he was retained on the ML roster, a team would know they were still lookng at mid 2026 for him making the majors and he would likely NEVER be an impact offensive player.  The Guardians rostering Halpin seems to me to say that they think more of him than they should based on his output so far.  And, in my opinion, where people get in trouble and often crash and burn is when they think they are the smartest people in the room.  Hey, analytics are great.  But when the player doesn't pass the sniff test you don't roster him, especially when you have starting pitching options who CAN impact 2025 and 2026.
• Bad risk not protecting Aaron Davenport, Trenton Denholm and Tommy Mace.  Look, you can make the case that none of these guys will be better than 4-5 starters in the majors, but the same was said about Beiber, Bibee, Civale and even Hunter Gaddis and Xzavion Curry.  So they could, and likely will, turn out better and more useful than some fungible AAAA pitcher.  The issue here is that they could likely be effective bullpen arms in the majors right now.  Trevor Stephan had never pitched above AA or in the bullpen when the Guardians drafted him in the Rule 5.  He was also about the same age as these 3.  All 3 have good, durable arms and could be effective current relievers with starter upside.  Given the dearth of starting in the majors and the overage of poor hit, good defense centerfielders, any of these would have been better to protect than Halpin.
• Eli Morgan trade was just salt in the wound.  Look, Morgan is a middle reliever.  Rosario seems a little light in return especially since this organization doesn't develop powerful, swing-and-miss power hitters into ML hitters.  The issue with the Morgan trade is that if occurred on roster freeze day we could have rostered Davenport and Webb (if we don't roster Halpin).  So the Morgan trade would have been palatable to me if it came with another SP prospect being rostered.  As it is now, we likely traded Morgan AND Webb for Rosario...which would be, of course, a totally unacceptable trade.
• Bad roster management.  I talked before roster freeze day about how deals like the Morgan deal and non-tenders would be really bad if we didn't protect our starting pitching prospects.  The Guardians were truly bad at managing their middle infield prospects, letting them die on the vine and even bringing in more (e.g., Brito) to crowd the picture even more.  They simply lost value without gaining value from those prospects.  Now they are doing the same thing with the 2021 draft class.   They picked the right college pitchers and developed them to end up with more than 10 ML pitchers and true prospects, many of whom are at AA or higher.  But they did nothing to thin the herd as that class approached their first Rule 5.  So, without getting any compensation, we are now staring at losing up to 5 pitchers for that class in the Rule 5 draft, maybe more if you count the minor league phases.  That is simply bad roster management, which is not acceptable for an organization that can't backfill positions be covering up those holes in free agency.  I mean, no one is damning the Yankees because of all the Rule 5 guys they lost BECAUSE IT REALLY DIDN'T HURT THEM AS THEY HAVE A FAT CHECKBOOK.  If you are the Guardians you simply cannot have this type of short-sighted roster mismanagement where the over-riding principle seems to be paralysis by analysis.  Sure, none of guys we lose in the Rule 5 will likely ever be all-stars, but getting nothing back for guys who have significant careers in the majors is something a cash-strapped team like the Guardians can NEVER afford to do if they want to remain competitive.

That's it for right now but I pretty much guarantee that the next month is going to make me even more mad about roster freeze day and the mismanagement of the lower end of the 40 man roster that will occur between now and December 12th (the day after the Rule 5 draft).

2024 Rule 5 Draft - Part 6 - Happy Roster Freeze Day!!!!!

 2:30 PM ET

All roster freeze day is on.  In it 2:30 ET and so far we have:

• No news from the Guardians
• No trades being announced in baseball
• Only a few teams (Nationals, Brewers Astros, A's, White Sox) making rostering announcements

It's still early but some interesting things:

• A's only 1 of 4 top 30 prospects to their roster.  Don't add #10 Denzel Clarke who has only risent to AA and is 24 years old.  Still, he has speed and could be kept as a 4th outfielder as the rest of his game develops.
• The White Sox add only 2 players, both top 30 guys (out of 3 who were R5 eligible) to their roster.  Their roster stands at 38 meaning they could clearly trade a veteran or 2 or 3 for multiple prospects, not even counting veterans they may DFA to make room.
• Houston adds only 1 of 4 of their top 30 R5-eliigible guys, The other 3 are interesting but not guys who you think would stick with a ML team for a whole year,

5:30 ET

Still no word from the Guardians, who tend to hold their cards close in these situations.  So likely we will hear from them late compared to other teams.

Recent developments on this roster freeze day:

• The Reds had no top 30 prospects who need to be protected from the Rule 5 but protected 2 prospects not in their top 30.
• A trade of two guys already on 40-man rosters sent Myles Straw clone Jose Siri to the Mets for RP Eric Orze.  It is possible that Siri will be non-tendered and that Orze would have been DFA'd by the Mets and so was a throw-away prospect for the Mets but may be useful to the opener-heavy Rays.  So, while it wasn't a Rule 5 trade it may have roster implications on roster freeze day.
• The Red Sox protected 2 of 5 of their top 30 prospects who were Rule 5 eligible
• The Cardinals added 2 players from their top 30 and 2 not on their top 30 and left 2 top 30 prospects off their roster today.  Ian Bedell a RHP was not protected and he may have Rule 5 value as a multi-inning reliever.
• Miami added 3 prospects to their 40 man including Deyvison De Los Santos who was selected in last year's Rule 5 by Cleveland only to be returned to Arizona and later traded to Miami in a deadline deal.  Miami also protected their other 2 R5-eligible top 30 prospects, exactly what you would imagine a rebuilding team might do.

More later!

6:30 ET

The long-awaited roster moves by the Guardians are in.  They have added the following players to their roster:

• Franco Aleman
• Doug Nikhazy
• Nic Enright
• Petey Halpin

They have also designated 3 players for assignment:

• Peter Strzelecki
• Connor Gillaspie
• George Valera

Instant Analysis

• The DFA of George Valera and inclusion of Petey Halpin is just weird.  It makes no sense.  Halpin repeated AA with really no improvement and profiles, at best, as a better defensive version of Will Brennan and, at worst, as Myles Straw, part deux.  Valera, on the other hand, has offensive potential while being very questionable in CF. 
• The inclusion of Aleman and Nikhazy was a given.
• The inclusion of Enright was my dark horse, given his AAA numbers last year.  I think he could step into Nick Sandlin's role tomorrow with maybe more K potential.
• The lack of inclusion of Ryan Webb, Aaron Davenport and Travis Denholm is, to me, very problematic.  These 3 guys compare very favorably to last year's R5 #1 pick, Mitch Spence.  Given the success Spence had for Oakland, since starting pitching is at such a premium in baseball, that it is highly likely that we lose 2 or even 3 of these guys to the R5 this year.  I also believe they have the talent to never come back to Cleveland.  While inclusion of Enright is problematic in light of leaving these 3 exposed to the Rule 5.  Relievers are a dime-a-dozen and Enright will just serve as a backup to a backup plan. Webb could easily be up by June 1st and effective.  The only thing I could see is that they think they will get something out of Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie next year.  I think that is a long shot and I think that one or both of them will be non-tendered in a few days, making the potential loss of Webb, Davenport and Denholm in the R5 more problematic.   Here's the bottom line: you draft 19 college pitchers in 2021.  You have to have an exit plan for these guys involving them either flaming out or getting something back in a trade.  If Cleveland's plan was to take the best couple from the draft and not worry about the rest, that s only a good plan if 'the rest' really suck.  That is not nearly the case with Webb, Denholm, Davenport or even Alaska Abney.  While it would have made life difficult if you kept Webb and Davenport, I think that McKenzie and Allen are done in Cleveland and not seeing that and setting yourself up to lose viable pitchers like Webb, Davenport, Denholm and Abney makes no sense, ESPECIALLY when you kept two minor league relief pitchers.

Normally I have some level of doom and gloom in my R5 posts.  But this year, I am MAJOR on the doom and gloom regarding Webb and Davenport and a little less on Denholm.  I am majorly dome and gloom on rostering Halpin and DFAing Valera, which I think is a totally stupid move and has no chance of EVER being a success for the Guardians.

One more thng: realize that Webb, Davenport, Denholm, Abney and all the rest of the players not rostered are now essentially untreadeable.  No one will give you anything since they can't be added to anyone's 40 man until after the Rule 5 draft. 

So, there it is.  More later!

2024 Rule 5 Draft - Part 5 - It's Sunday Night and I'm Getting Nervous

 Tuesday, November 19, 2024, 6 pm ET.

That's the time when ML teams must finalize their 40-man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 draft on Wednesday, December 11th. You don't have to have a full 40 man roster at that time but...

After that point no player from your own organization can be added to your 40 man roster until after December 11th.  Free agents can be signed and players on the 40-man can be removed (DFA'd or non-tendered). 

In fact, after November 19th and before December 12th, no prospect from ANY organization can be added to your 40 man roster if they were not on a 40-man roster at the time of the trade.

You CAN trade for guys on another 40 man roster and add them to your 40-man after November 19th.

You CAN sign free agents and add them to your 40-man roster after November 19th.

So, let's check out some guys and see if they can be added after November 19th.

• Bryan Lavastida - Assuming he is not signed by that point with another team, he is a free agent and could be added after November 19th.  If he is signed to a minor league deal before November 19th he would be rule 5 eligible.
• Dayan Frias - Unless he is added before Nov. 19th (not likely), he can't be added to the roster and he is Rule 5 eligible.  If we trade him after November 19th, he can't be added to the ML roster for the team we trade him to until after December 11th.
• Colt Emerson - If we trade for him after November 19th, we can't add him to the roster this off-season until after December 11th.  That's good because he is not Rule 5 eligible anyway.  

So this is why I am nervous.

This team has needs for the 2025 season AND they have too many prospects to protect on their 40 man without making trades.

So what will the Guardians do?  Let's break it down into 2 categories 

• Stupid
• DFA a prospect of some level (e.g., Gabriel Arias or Jonathon Rodriguez) from your 40 man roster just to add a different prospect
• Keep a guy on your 40 man roster who you intend to non-tender a few days later
• Trade a true prospect like Caminiero and get back a rule-5 eligible/non-factor/roster clogger like Tobias Myers when you don't even have enough 40 man roster space for your own prospects
• Trade a young MLer for a prospect another team doesn't intend to protect on their 40-man (see Nolan Jones for Juan Brito) causing you to have to use a 40-man roster spot FOR YEARS without any benefit to your ML team and creating, as I have called it before, a dead roster spot.
• Smart
• DFA guys like Gillaspie and Strzelecki and replace them with prospects
• DFA guys you intend to non-tender and beat the rush, opening more roster spots for prospects
• Trade a bunch of Rule 5-eligible prospects to get major league talent (like Luis Robert, Garrett Crochet and Andrew Benintendi to the CWS for Brito, Noel, JRod, Martinez, Cantillo, Nikhazy, Webb and Straw) that would help the ML team and clear roster spots for prospects who normally you wouldn't have room to protect (e.g., Denholm, Mace, Enright and maybe even Davenport unless the Guardians do some fancy dancing before November 19th)

In the 2024 off-season, no news is BAD news for the Guardians.  It means they will likely lose good prospects for, essentially, nothing in the RUle 5 draft or DFA process.  It also means they will likely not improve their ML team, instead counting on natural improvement to make the team better.

So, it's Sunday night and I am nervous that we will do things in the Stupid category and nothing of consequence in the Smart category.

2024 Rule 5 Draft - Part 4 - Recent History And What It May Teach Us.

 Every year is different.  Management changes, Rule 5 order changes, 40-man roster spots vary, team needs change, the number of viable Rule 5-eligible prospects changes as does the availability of different positions.

Each year is so different it is hard to make generalizations...but that never stopped me from looking for trends that then fuel predictions.  

Trends over the years have included:

• Normally, highly ranked prospects are protected by teams.  This is true even when a prospect is years away from the majors in their first rule 5 year (e.g., Brito, Noel, Valera, Martinez, Espino, etc.). In the rare cases where a highly-ranked prospect is left unprotected, it is due to poor projectability to be a major leaguer the next year.  
• Pitchers who can be used as relief pitchers but have starter potential and utility players with offensive skills are the most often drafted. An occasional power hitting corner infielder/outfielder is selected since they can be utilized as a DH.
• Given the 2 trends above, and the differences in team landscapes from year to year, the 'experts' guesses on the specific players who will be selected and the number of players projected to be selected always appear to be way off.
• In some cases, even the players that a particular team protects don't seem to make sense.  For example, Cade Smith last year and Tim Herrin two years ago seemed unlikely to be rostered over more highly-ranked prospects.  They were protected and, as they say, the rest is history.  
• What the experts don't know is what they don't know.  The general thought here is that there are red flags that those experts don't see that cause teams to protect players.  For example, if teams ask about a prospect during trade discussions of a veteran, this is a sign that at least one team believes in this prospect.  Also, a team may have internal metrics that say that a particular prospect has more potential than the industry, as a whole, thinks.

The bottom line here is that roster spots are like gold.  Teams shouldn't, and generally don't, waste a roster spot on a second or third tier prospect unless they truly believe in him. 

So, there's a little background.  

But what about this year?

In this post I want to look at 3 things from recent Rule 5 drafts:

1. The high profile players who were available
2. The players who were actually selected
3. The players who stuck with the team who drafted them in the Rule 5

So let's look back over the past 2 Major League Rule 5 drafts (all of them since the COVID season) and see what we have:

2022 

•  176 (out of 900) top 30 prospects were eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  Cleveland only had 2 top prospects, Joey Cantillo and Angel Martinez, who were Rule 5-eligible.  They obviously had a lot more prospects, but just 2 who were highly rated.
• 76 were added to 40-man rosters (Cleveland added Cantillo and Martinez)
• 34 players were also added to 40 man rosters who were not on teams' top 30 prospect lists (Cleveland added Brito and Herrin)
• 15 total players were selected in this draft.
• 13 pitchers (2 LHP), 1 OF/C (Blake Sabol), 1 1B (Ryan Noda)
• 2 players (#1 R5 pick Thad Ward (#15 for Boston), #5 R5 pick Mason Englert (#29 for Texas)) were top 30 prospects on the team they were drafted from
• Of the 15 players selected, 13 were picked from teams who protected at least one player NOT in their top 30 prospects. Nick Avila was selected by the White Sox from San Francisco, who rostered 4 prospects not in their top 30 in addition to 2 of 5 of their top 30 prospects who were R5-eligible.
• 8 of the 15 players drafted were returned to their original teams.  For the other 7:
• Thad Ward spent part of 2023 on the IL but was on the ML active roster enough to be kept by Washington who sent him back to AAA in 2024 where he started 28 games.
• Ryan Noda had a .734 OPS for Oakland in 2023 and was hurt most of 2024.
• Jose Hernandez spent all 2023 in the Pittsburgh bullpen, but a good part of 2024 in the minors
• Blake Sabol spent all of 2023 with San Francisco but much of 2024 in the minors
• Mason Englert spent most of 2023 in the Tigers bullpen and much of 2024 in the minors
• Kevin Kelly spent all of 2023 and 2024 in Tampa's bullpen.
• Wilking Rodriguez spent all of 2023 on the IL and was released in 2024 and re-signed to a minor league contract in November.

2023

• 152 (out of 900) top 30 prospects were eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  (Daniel Espino #8) and Dayan Frias (#15) were the only top 30 prospects the Guardians needed to protect}
• 52 were added to 40-man rosters (Daniel Espino was the only ranked (#8) prospect protected by Cleveland who also protected Cade Smith who was not a top 30 prospect for them.}
• 10 total players were selected in this draft.
• 8 pitchers (1 LHP), 1 INF (Nasim Nunez), 1 3B/1B (Deyvison De Los Santos, drafted by the Guardians)
• 4 players (De Los Santos, ARI #5; Matt Sauer NYY #25; Shane Drohan, Bos #19; Nunez Miami #16) were top 30 prospects on the team they were drafted from
• 3 of the 10 players drafted were returned to their original teams (including De Los Santos, who was traded at the deadline and is now Miami's #4 prospect).  For the other 7:
• Mitch Spence - spent the whole season with Oakland and started 24 games (35 overall)
• Anthony Molina - pitched the entire season for Colorado out of the bullpen
• Nasim Nunez - Nunez served all of 2024 as a utility infielder for Washington
• Ryan Fernandez pitched the entire season out of the bullpen for St. Louis
• Justin Slaten - pitched the entire season out of the bullpen for Boston
• Stephen Kolek - Kolek pitched the entire season out of the bullpen for San Diego
• Carson Coleman - Coleman spent the entire 2024 season on the 60-day IL for Texas and, as such, is still subject to being returned to the Yankees if he does not fulfill 90 days on Texas' active list in 2025.

SUMMARY

The trends are clear:

•  Over 150 top 30 prospects need to be protected against the Rule 5 each year.
• Two-thirds of these top prospects are not protected by teams against the Rule 5
• Even with the large number of top 30 prospects available to be drafted in the Rule 5, the majority of prospects selected in the Rule 5 are NOT top 30 prospects.  

So, as has been the case in the past:

• Teams draft who they think can play in the majors in some capacity right now
• Teams draft who they think have long term potential but, in most cases, that potential generally won't be recognized for years, at least based on their production in their first year after being selected in the Rule 5.
• None of the 'experts' have any idea who will be drafted or who will be successful IF they are drafted in the Rule 5.

So, in summary, we will know what we know when we know it but Cleveland should consider protecting all their pitching prospects (Aleman, Nikhazy, Webb, Davenport, Mace, Denholm) who are Rule 5 eligible, have starting pitching upside and are close to the majors.

2024 Rule 5 Draft - Part 3 - One of The Most Stupid Rules In Baseball And What To Expect Leading Up To The Nov. 19th Roster Freeze

ONE OF THE MOST STUPID RULES IN BASEBALL

 OK, you may ask why I would start a Rule 5 post with something about stupid rules.  

Well, in a nutshell, here it is. The 40 man rosters must be frozen in anticipation of the Rule 5 draft on November 19th at 6 pm ET.  The deadline for tendering players a 2025 contract (non-tender deadline) is November 22nd at 8 pm ET.  After November 19th you can no longer add players from your own organization to your 40 man until after the Rule 5.  Players can only be added from outside your organization and any players who have to be dropped from your roster have to be DFA'd.

When you set your roster for the Rule 5 draft shouldn't you have ALL the information necessary to do that?  I mean, you add a prospect and then a good player is non-tendered.  If your roster is full you could, conceivably, have to DFA a prospect you just added to protect him from the Rule 5, JUST to have room for the non-tender free agent.  

Since it is tougher to lose a player for good in the Rule 5 draft (has to stay on the drafting team's active roster for 90 days) compared to a DFA (waiver claims are forever, with no conditions for getting the player back), teams tend to be conservative in their roster freeze decisions to give them flexibility to sign free agents and minimize, to some extent, the risk of losing a prospect for good for little or no return.  This can lead to them leaving quality prospects unprotected, exposing them to the Rule 5.   

If you just pushed the non-tender date back to November 17th and moved the roster freeze date back to November 20th, teams would have all the information possible to make the best roster freeze decisions and that, in my opinion, would lead teams to protect more players from the Rule 5 as they already know what they are looking for in free agency and how many spots to save to fill those holes in their 2025 roster..

Seems elementary to me.

WHAT TO EXPECT BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER 19TH FROM THE GUARDIANS

The Guardians roster stands at 39 right now, meaning, in theory, they can only add one prospect to their roster to protect him from the Rule 5.   Since they have many more prospects who are truly in need of protecting, here is what you can expect

• Unless there is a trade where we trade away mulitple players from our current roster, nothing much will happen before November 19th.
• Since the Guardians are likely to protect Doug Nikhazy, Ryan Webb and Franco Aleman, expect at least 2 players to be traded or DFA'd by November 19th in order to keep the roster at 40 or less
• I think Aaron Davenport and maybe one relief prospect (Misiaszek, Enright, Kent or Mikolajchak) will also be added to the roster (like Cade Smith was last year and Tim Herrin the year before) as those guys will be considered by the Guardians to be both high risk of being drafted in the Rule 5 and high risk of being able to stick with the drafting team next year.
• Expect at least 1-2 surprise moves (e.g., DFAing Triston McKenzie) will be made to free up roster space for these additional prospects.
• Expect that ZERO position prospects will be added to the 40 man.  Simply, there is no room on the roster as the 2021 college pitcher-heavy draft has produced way too many intriguing pitching prospects, some of whom will have to be left unprotected, eligibile for this year's Rule 5 and ZERO compelling position player prospects who are Rule 5 eligible.
• There is an outside chance of a multi-prospect trade to clear roster space before the Rule 5 (see my proposal for a Robert-Benitendi-Crochet trade with the White Sox).  Any trade of this type made after the roster freeze will just be ill-timed so the pressure of the Rule 5 might prompt the Guardians to fill a ML hole with several Rule 5-eligible prospects either currently on or needing to be added to the roster by November 19th.
• There is an even smaller chance that the Guardians will do a reverse Tobias Myer for Junior Caminero trade and trade a Rule 5 eligible prospect they can't protect to a team for a guy who is not yet Rule 5 eligible.  This, essentially, would be a Will Benson to Cincinnati trade where we got Justin Boyd and Andrew Hajjar back.  Given that trade's outcome, however, I doubt that we will see either a Tobias Myers or Will Benson-like trade.

OK, so that's it for right now.  More on the Rule 5 if other scenarios pop up between now and November 19th.

Looking Ahead To The 2025 Season -Part 2 - Building a New Roster To Go For It All in 2025/2026...and beyond.

 OK, so the World Series is now over and we have a new champion, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Guardians have 2 Gold Glovers (Gimenez and Kwan),  one Fielding Bible Pitcher of the year winner (Bibee)) and 2 Silver Sluggers Finalists (Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor)

The end of the MLB playing season signals the official start of the off-season.  Most fans agree we need starting pitching and an impact bat in the OF.  So do we handle that through free agency or through trades or, possibly, both?

I would like to propose some transactions for the off-season:

1. Re-sign Shane Bieber to a 2-year deal with a 3rd year option. ($15 MM, $23 MM, club option for 3rd year @ $23 MM with a $2 MM buyout)

2. Re-sign Matthew Boyd to a 2-year deal ($22 MM)

3. Look into signing 1-3 top of the 2nd tier free agents (see below)

4. Make the following trades:

• Trade 1 - To Cleveland: Luis Robert and Garrett Crochet; To Chicago: Juan Brito (Cleveland's #8 prospect), Jhonkensy Noel, Jonathon Rodriguez (#12), Franco Aleman (#30), Doug Nikhazy (#24), Ryan Webb (#27), Myles Straw plus $5 million.
• Trade 2 - To Cleveland: Brent Rooker and Myles Naylor (Oakland #15).  To Oakland: Angel Genao (#4), Joey Cantillo (#15), Angel Martinez, Nick Sandlin
• Trade 3 - To Cleveland: Colt Emerson (Seattle #1), Taylor Saucedo; To Seattle: Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor, Myles Naylor (Oakland's #15).
• Trade 4: To Cleveland: Drew Romo; To Colorado: Jake Fox (Cleveland's #25 prospect), Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie, Will Brennan and $3 Million.

5. Add the following players to the 40-man roster in anticipation of the Rule 5 draft

• Bryan Lavastida
• Tommy Mace
• Lenny Torres Jr.
• Aaron Davenport
• Trenton Denholm
• Nic Enright
• Alaska Abney

5. DFA or Trade IF you need roster sports but, for now, still on the 40 man

• Connor Gillaspie
• Peter Strzelecki
• Gabriel Arias

6. Guys to think about trading before the roster freeze to avoid losing them in the Rule 5 (not a huge priority as I don't think either of these guys, or others eligible for the Rule 5 this year, would stick on a ML roster at the beginning of 2025).

• Allan Hernandez
• Milan Tolentino

New top 30 prospects

1. Colt Emerson
2. Chase DeLauter
3. Travis Bazzana
4. Jaison Chourio
5. CJ Kayfus
6. Ralphy Valesquez
7. Welbyn Francisca
8. Braylon Doughty
9. Joey Oakie
10. Andrew Walters
11. Daniel Espino
12. Jacob Cozart
13. Cooper Ingle
14. Robert Arias
15. Chase Mobley
16. Parker Messick
17. Drew Romo
18. George Valera
19. Jackson Humphries
20. Cameron Sullivan
21. Matt Wilkinson
22. Austin Peterson
23. Alex Mooney
24. Khalil Watson
25. Aaron Davenport
26. Nick Enright
27. Trenton Denholm
28. Bryan Lavastida
29. Tommy Mace
30. Lenny Torres, Jr.

New 40-man roster for Nov. roster freeze (39)

Pitchers (25, 22 if only count non-60 Day DL guys) (SP in bold, 26 Man roster in red)

1. Pedro Avila (no options remaining)
2. Alaska Abney
3. Shane Bieber (60-day DL)
4. Tanner Bibee
5. Matthew Boyd (L)
6. Emmanuel Clase
7. Garrett Crochet (L)
8. Aaron Davenport
9. Trenton Denholm
10. Nic Enright
11. Hunter Gaddis
12. Connor Gillaspie
13. Sam Hentges (L, 60 day DL) (no options remaining)
14. Tim Herrin (L)
15. Ben Lively (no options remaining)
16. Tommy Mace
17. Eli Morgan
18. Erik Sabrowski (L)
19. Taylor Saucedo (L)
20. Cade Smith
21. Peter Srzelecki (no options remaining)
22. Trevor Stephan (60 day DL)
23. Lenny Torres, Jr.
24. Andrew Walters
25. Gavin Williams

Catchers (3)

1. Bryan Lavastida
2. Drew Romo
3. Austin Hedges

Infielders (4)

1. Andres Gimenez
2. Kyle Manzardo
3. Jose Ramirez
4. Brayan Rocchio

Outfielders (4)

1. Steven Kwan
2. Luis Robert
3. Lane Thomas
4. George Valera

Utility (3)

1. Tyler Freeman
2. Daniel Schneeman
3. Gabriel Arias (no options remaining)

Designated Hitter (2)

1. Brent Rooker
2. David Fry (60 day DL)

To Be Determined (1-3 free agents on multiyear deals, if necessary)

1. LHH corner outfielder with power (Alex Verdugo or DeLauter, if he is ready) - Freeman to minors
2. SS/2B/3B veteran with power (like Paul DeJong) - Schneeman to minors
3. SP/RP Swingman (poor man's Nick Martinez, now that Martinez has a QO) - Walters to minor
4. Veteran C with decent offensive skills (e.g., Travis D'Arnaud)

Minor League Signees

• Major league quality backup catcher to stash at AAA
• Veteran relief pitchers with better quality than we did in 2024 (assuming we lose Strzelecki), e.g., Enyel De Los Santos comes to mind and even bringing Carrasco back on a minor league deal.
• Veteran utility infielders
• Outfielders (not necessarily veterans but could be) with speed who can play defense.  Tony Kemp comes to mind or maybe a 6-year MiLB free agent or two.
• 1-2 starting pitchers who can't get ML deal and are forced to settle for a minor league deal (like Carrasco in 2024)

Looking Ahead To the 2025 Season - Part 1 - Roster Management - Who Is Gone, Who Might Be Gone and Why

 OK, so the Guardians' season is over.  Some people will want to lament or even be angry over the loss to the Yankees.

I get it, although I think looking backward doesn't help you find your path going forward.  

So, in this first post, let's look at our current roster and see who should/will/might be gone next year.  It is a good time for this as the November roster freeze is coming, and we have lots of interesting prospects who need to be protected this winter.

WHO SHOULD BE GONE...AND WHY

Triston McKenzie 

This, to me, is the easiest of decisions.  McKenzie was an up-and-coming pitching prospect who looked like a sure-fire #3 starter with significant upside over that.   He then had a variety of injuries, leading to the penultimate elbow injury in 2023.  He chose not to have surgery and just rehabilitate the elbow, leading to a disastrous 2024 where he was one of the absolute worst starting pitchers in the majors and wasn't much better at AAA Columbus.  Triston has chosen his path (non-surgical/rehab) and it has turned out badly for him.   At this point, even if he chooses surgery, he is not worth keeping, even at a relatively small arbitration cost.  I would try like heck to trade him and get what you can for him and, if that doesn't work, non-tender him.  Until he has that surgery, I don't believe he will ever come close to reaching his potential or even be a viable #5 starter.  Alternatively, they could keep him if they think they could convert him to a leverage reliever.

Nick Sandlin

Look, Sandlin is not a bad pitcher.  He is a solid middle man.  But we have relief prospects on the way (or here, in Walters and Sabrowski) who can step in and offer more long-term upside and versatility than Sandlin.  

Don't get me wrong.  I think Sandlin could bring a solid return in a trade, maybe in a salary eat like the Barlow - De Los Santos trade last year. But on this team you can only have 1-2 guys in relief who are not strikeout pitchers and those spots are already taken by Eli Morgan and Pedro Avila.

Logan Allen

I love what Allen has done.  He has busted his rear for Cleveland but his performance in Columbus after his demotion was very disappointing.  It looks more and more like he is a flash in the pan or, at best, a #5 starter.  Unless you send him to the bullpen and get his stuff to play up there, the Guardians have Webb, Nikhazy, Messick, Peterson, Mace, Davenport and Denholm who could, at various points in 2025, become a 5th starter as good or better (due to less familiarity by our opponents) than Allen.  Not that Logan Allen is a bad baseball player.  It's just he's not a good one.  That being said, he can be an innings eater SP on a rebuilding team and will be cheap this year so he has trade value.  So I think he is tendered a contract if he makes it to November but my hope is that they trade him before the roster freeze.

Connor Gillaspie

This is an easy one.  He is currently just a roster placeholder and I suspect he will be a November roster freezed casualty.  It is very possible that he clears waivers and we outright him to Columbus

Peter Strzelecki

Like Gillaspie, he is just a roster placeholder for November.  Unlike Gillaspie, I doubt Strzelecki clears waivers but, if he does and we can outright him, I would like to keep him on the Columbus roster if he survives the Rule 5.

Will Brennan

I just don't see him improving at all. When he came back from Columbus he was a slap hitter and may have fooled some that he was becoming a productive player.  But I don't see it.  His lack of progress really makes him a backup player but without the mentality of a veteran backup.  He either goes in a trade or is DFA'd before the November freeze.

Myles Straw

I think they will continue to actively try to trade Myles Straw.  When I say 'continue', I think it is pretty obvious that they have tried to trade him and I see him being traded as part of a larger deal where they include money to cover most of his 2025 salary.  For a rebuilding team like the White Sox, getting Straw essentially for free might be enticing although the Guardians will want to allow that as part of a larger deal where they get what they want.

THOSE WHO MIGHT BE GONE...AND WHY...AND FOR WHO

Josh Naylor

The math has been told over and over again this year.

• Naylor will make over $12 MM a year in his last year of arbitration
• The rumors are that the Guardians aren't willing to make him a fat, long-term offer and that Naylor isn't willing to take a team discount just to stay in Cleveland (like Ramirez did)
• Kyle Manzardo is ready to step in at 1B and Jhonkensy Noel and David Fry can also play there with others (maybe Juan Brito and, down the road, CJ Kayfus) in the wings.

On the other side of that is Josh Naylor's performance

• He had 30+ HRs and 100+ RBI and was the best available protection for Ramirez in the batting order in 2024. 
• He played almost every day and, truth be told, would have played every day if allowed to
• He accomplished all that while being what I will call EXCESSIVELY hurt this year, causing him to not be able to keep up with his conditioning and put on A LOT of weight.  No doubt he would have performed better in the post-season had he not had all those physical challenges.

Plus, his brother is the Guardians' starting catcher.  

If we trade him it is because we can cash in for him.   Unfortunately, some of the things I have heard are:

• Advanced metrics are not as favorable as his raw HR and RBI numbers
• People think we will have to throw in a prospect to be able to trade him for a mid-rotation SP with some control. In fact, the deals I have seen proposed look more like deadline deals if we are our of the race in July 2025.
• David Fry's elbow may make it so he can only DH in 2025 if he has to have surgery (similar to Ohtani in 2024)

All of these are confusing to me but one thing is clear: NAYLOR IS WORTH MORE TO THE GUARDIANS THAN A MID-ROTATION STARTING PITCHER.

Although the Guardians don't hold onto guys like Naylor who enter their walk year unsigned, and I don't think they want to sign him to an extension until they see how he comes out of his off-season conditioning, I say that you keep Naylor UNLESS you get overwhelmed with an offer that brings you a top of rotation SP or a proven power-hitting OFer with a few years of control.  

It's unfortunate that our FO can't swing a good deal when they have a lot to offer, but that is our reality.  To way that we are going to trade Josh Naylor just because we can is not enough.  This is an arithmetic equation.  What comes in has to be > or = to what goes out or our team is weaker next year, overall.  You can disagree but that is my take.

James Karinchak

I think his personality quirks, his ability to fall apart at any given moment and the possibility that his previous success was due to, how can I say this, some manipulation of the baseball that is no longer allowed, makes him vulnerable.  Still, however, I hope they don't just dump him in a DFA move or do another horrible Scott Barlow-like trade with him.  But it is possible, given all the peripheral issues with Karinchak, that they just do an addition by subtraction move with him.  That would be throwing the baby out with the bathwater, especially given the overuse of our bullpen in 2024.  So, I hope we just keep him and see what he brings next spring.  Truthfully, except for Aleman, we have no one in the minors with the upside of Karinchak if we choose to start him at Columbus next year.

Gabriel Arias

Don't be surprised to see him as part of a large deal this fall/winter.  Aside from that I think we go into ST with him next year.  DFAing him seems too easy and only a way to show our disappointment in his development.  Again, addition by subtraction here seems unwarranted.  Now, if he is the same, old Arias next spring, he gets DFA'd after ST.

OVERALL SUMMARY OF ROSTER MANAGEMENT

The above players represent the ones who I think the Guardians will likely dangle in trades or simply non-tender or DFA.  Obviously, anyone on the roster with the exception of Bibee, Williams, Lively, Clase, Ramirez, Kwan, Gimenz and Smith is a possible tradeable asset from the less likely Gaddis, Herrin, Walters, Sabrowski, Manzardo, Fry, Espino, Avila, Cantillo, Rocchio and Bo Naylor to the more tradeable assets like Freeman, Noel, JRod, Valera, Schneeman, Brito, Morgan or any Rule 5-eligible guy who needs to be added this winter.  I do think they will focus on trading major leaguers or ML ready guys who have to be rostered this winter.  I don't think you will see any of the lower level minor leaguers like Genao traded as most teams want ML-ready players and the Guardians have a whole slew of them on the 40-man and guys who will need to be added to the 40-man this winter who are close to, if not ML ready by ST 2025.  I also don't think you will see DeLauter traded as teams would be trying to buy low on him and the Guardians would not be able to get good value for him, at least what I believe is his value.

Time will tell.  I won't hold my breath that there is a big trade but my next post will list a couple that I think are doable.