Roki Sasaki and the Roki Sasaki Fallout

 OK, free agents are being signed left and right and a lot of the FA SP are off the board already.  So you know what that means?

IT'S ROKI SASAKI TIME

So, where does that leave the Guardians?  Let's talk some background first:

• Sasaki, being only 23, will be treated like the 16 year old international free agents.
• Any loophole, over or under the table, that you might think of that could give more affluent franchises the advantage, MLB has language in its rules that closes that possibility. 
• Chiba, his present team, will receive a posting fee of 25% of his eventual bonus 
• The Guardians' pool for international FAs is $6,908,600.  8 teams have $7,555,500 (A's, Reds, Tigers, Twins, Marlins, Brewers, Mariners, Rays).  All the rest have the same or less than the Guardians.
• Teams can start signing international free agents on Jan. 15th and AFTER THAT DATE can trade for more international bonus pool money, in increments up to $250,000 and can increase their international bonus pool by up to 50% (some sources say 60%).  So, for example, if the Guardians wanted to trade players for international pool money, they could, theoretically, increase their bonus pool to $10,362,900 but that would have to involve 14 trades!  Just to get to equal footing with the top tier of teams who have the $7,555,500 bonus allotment this year, they would have to make 3 trades where they acquired the $250,000 max per trade.
• As a final way to avoid any funny business, MLB will simply not approve any signing that exceeds the bonus pool of a team.
• Sasaki has set January 25th as when he will make his decision, strategically giving teams a chance to increase their bonus pool for him by making trades to acquire money after January 15th.  
• International signings of $10,000 or less do not count against a team's bonus pool.  Those signings above $10,000 all count against a team's pool.  Teams, supposedly, have deals in place with players way ahead of the signing period, including bonus amounts. 
• The information I have read shows that the Guardians, who are linked to 25 players for the upcoming signing period, have committed to the following bonuses.
• Hiverson Lopez - $900,000
• Heins Brito - $800,000
• In the 2024 signing period they used all but roughly $400,000 of their bonus pool and traded most of the rest of it away during the season.  So, even though we only see $1.7 million committed so far, there could be a lot more in bits and pieces that could add up to closer to their current pool of close to $7 million

So, that is where we stand right now.  Let's talk about things that MIGHT happen and signs that we should be watching for as we go over the next 3 weeks:

1. Teams might hold off on signing their other international free agents if they think they have a good chance to sign Sasaki
2. Teams may start trading away players for international bonus pool money.  Any trade made before January 15th can't include 2025 international bonus money.
3. You could see something rarely seen in international signing periods: players could jump from the team they were supposed to sign with to another team if the team they were supposed to sign with is delaying their signing or asking them to take less money so they can save money to sign Sasaki.

This entire process is very rare.  For people who follow these international signings closely they will likely see things they may never have seen.

It will be interesting...more so if the Guardians sign Sasaki.

For me, I am torn.  The Guardians have made promises to these kids about signing them and about the bonus amounts they will be given.  Ethics would say stick to those promises.  However, very few, if any, of these kids will even make the majors.  So sign 24 players who are 16 years old or one player who is a stud pitcher who is ML ready and has ace potential and, either not sign the kids or stiff them on their bonuses.