Monday, June 24, 2024

Thoughts for Monday, 6-24-24

 (1) The Guardians are in 1st place and, up to this point, they have won almost every game they should have this year (except the first 3 in the White Sox series).  They have come back from every losing streak with a winning streak.  They have done it on guts, they have done it on grit, they have done it on skill, they have done on on esprit-de-corps.   The 49-26 record is well-earned and well-deserved.

(2) Except for a couple of instances, almost every lineup, almost every move Vogt has made is very logical and well-thought out.  Love Francona but his managing seemed to be based on his gut and his desire that his players succeeded rather than percentages.  Even McCaughan yesterday.  While I hated the move at the time it was clearly the way to go as Avila had been used up recently and McCaughan saved us from having to use 2 relievers if the game is close late as Clase is (or at least should be) kept down for the next 2 games.  If Morgan is ready, McCaughan should be DFA'd and Eli called up as McCaughan would be cooked for the next 2 games anyway. 

(3)  Our veterans seem to be following the season-long plan of impacting the ball.  It is obvious, however, that guys like Rocchio, JRod, Arias and even Manzardo have not gotten the memo.  JRod has been especially passive and Manzardo, even though he had 10 doubles, appeared passive to me, as well.   Let's hope this is a learned trait and these guys need to learn it FAST.  Even Schneeman appeared passive at times although it is hard with him to argue that he is not impacting the ball.   

(4) I hope Fry is OK but if he isn't, we need Noel to get a shot right now, especially against the lefties we are going to be hitting against.  And when Noel comes up tell him 2 things: don't chase the slider low and away and, for every other pitch, impact the ball.

(5) People are starting to think about the trade deadline but a couple of points I want to make:
    
    (a) Most trade deadline deals don't work out for the buyer
    (b) The only good trade this FO has made in 4 years is for Fry...and there have been some disasters.
    (c) When we were pursuing Sean Murphy 2 years ago, the A's wanted Williams, Espino, Martinez and one other prospect.  They settled for second rate prospects from Atlanta when they couldn't con us into giving up top prospects.  My point is that it appears that teams only want to trade with us if they think they can rob us...and they always think they can rob us.
    (d) The key to the trade deadline should not be if we can catch up to the Yankees and Orioles where they are now but, rather, can we do enough to catch up to them AFTER what they will spend at the trade deadline as both teams will likely be more active than we will be.
    (e) Finally, our farm system is only middle of the pack in terms of talent.  We may have to overpay in volume of talent to get even incremental help.  

I have a novel idea: wait out the trade deadline.  Imagine if we could have gotten Giolito, Moore and Lopez for peanuts in August THIS year!   Maybe last year was a one-off on that kind of move...or maybe not.

(6) Tough, tough stretch coming up for the Guardians.  Winning 1 of 3 in Baltimore is needed and splitting in Kansas City is all it takes for me to be happy, however.  I know that is only 3-4 on this road trip but goals when you are 7 games up can be a little more muted than if you are a half game up.  

(7) The draft is almost here.  I will have more content in the next couple of weeks but the key for me is what I have been saying all along: The Guardians draft director and draft team can only screw this up in one way: IF THEY ACT LIKE THEY ARE THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM.  Don't be cute, don't do anything weird (like last year when you picked Velasquez over Waldrep) or in 2023 where you picked a bunch of LH slap hitters (which is likely reinforced in their draft room given the success of Kwan and Kayfus).  Just solid draft picks like you made in 2021 with the exception that you start with college position players and switch over to college pitchers in the 2nd round.  Except for taking late round flyers on HS pitchers, avoid HS players.  The pitching pipeline needs to be filled up in the upper half of the minors and stacked at the bottom with US HS pitchers and Cuban youngsters and we have bet a lot of money on filling up the bottom of the hitter pipeline with international signees.  Again, don't try to save money for guys who might not even be there when you draft.  Don't be cute.  Just be solid and the rest will take care of itself.

Go Guards!


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