Thoughts For A Friday Morning - Meet Me in St. Louis, Louie Version

 Spent most of my adult life in St. Louis and a part of me wishes I was going to be at Busch Stadium tonight to root on the Guardians in person.  Instead, I will be watching on TV like so many other Guardians' fans.  

But let's dive in this morning:

TO ALL THE TEAMS IN OUR SYSTEM

• Guardians in the playoffs
• Columbus, Akron, Lake County and one of our DSL teams in the playoffs.  
• Every team but one (ACL team) had a winning record.
• Likely that most of these teams had an average age BELOW what the average age was for players in that league.  So, not a lot of over-age, 4A players stuffing rosters to artificially help win championships. 

Lake County Captains

Congrats to the guys.  It was a great win and this experience should clearly help guys in the future.   The amazing thing is that this was accomplished even in the face of probably the most aggressive promotion strategy that I have ever seen the Guardians use, meaning a lot of the guys at the end were at Lynchburg during the year and some of the stud prospects on the Captains' roster at the beginning of the year had been promoted to Akron a long time ago.

Akron Rubberducks

You guys continue to fight and, hopefully, can clinch the Eastern League semifinals tonight.

Columbus Clippers

You have made the playoffs without a bunch of former MLer, 4A players on your roster.  Mostly homegrown guys, many of whom are still very good prospects, even after all the promotions and inj

I will have more on this in my end-of-minor-league-season post at the end of September but with all but one team (ACL team) finishing with a winner record and 4 of our 7 minor league teams making the playoffs, it has been a pretty successful year.  Considering how young the players are on those teams, we also had success in a way that is helpful to the development of future major leaguers.

Cleveland Guardians

What can I say.  As magic numbers start to fall, as my pre-season prediction of 61-101 drops further in the rearview mirror, as we start to get performances from younger players and trade deadline acquistions, this season looks more and more satisfying.  Congratulatons on knocking off that first magic number (i.e., making the playoffs)

While the post-season is all about getting hot at the right time and having a manager who is experienced and good at navigating these short series, the goal, for me, is to pass all these thresholds.  So, going into tonight, what we have left is:

Magic # is 3 to win the AL Central (KC)

Magic # is 4 to get the #2 seed (Houston)

#1 seed - we are currently 0.5 games behind the Yankees and they hold the tiebreaker

Top seed for the World Series: We are currently 2.5 games behind Philadelphia and LA.  We hold the tiebreaker over Philly and the Dodgers own the tiebreaker over us.

St. LOUIS SERIES

We need to keep pushing through the end of the year.  We also need to keep trying to make this team better.  I still want to make some moves starting this weekend, even though I know they probably won't be made:

• Bring up Enright, DFA Strzelecki, send down Sandlin - It will be a great story and Enright deserves a shot.  Right now it is doubtful that he gets protected this winter as we have soooo many young pitchers to protect against the Rule 5 raft and maybe giving him a shot now also increases his trade value.  Plus, like with Walters and Sabrowski, the lack of scouting on him may help him be successful early.
• Bring up Brito and Rodriguez and send down Schneeman and Brennan.  Look, as I said before, I don't think this would impact the minor league options for anyone at this point, as you have to be in the minors for 20 days to burn an option and I think you only have to stay in the minors for 10 days after being optioned.  With 9 days left in the season, we shouldn't have an issue if we wanted to bring Schneeman and Brennan back up to the ML roster for the post-season.  We need to find out whether Rodriguez will be a fit for the post-season roster and if we can survive Brito's lack of defensive versatility in order to inject more offense into the lineup for the playoffs.

Would love to see these things done but I doubt if they will be.  In any case, will enjoy this weekend with my two hometown teams battling it out, followed up by the battle for the Ohio Cup and a good warmup series for the post-season with Houston.  

Thoughts For A Monday - Mid September Version - The Most Important Series of the Year - Part Deux And Other Topics

 Halfway through September and here we are.  The most important series of the year...again

Magic Numbers

12 games to go

To make the playoffs as the 3rd wildcard team:  3 (Detroit and Seattle)

To win the AL Central: 9 (KC)

To get the #2 overall seed: 9 (Houston) - if Cleveland wins the AL Central

Minnesota Series

Three weeks ago I would have thought this series would have been a crucial matchup between 2 teams battling for the AL Central championship.  However, Minnesota has gone 7-12 while the Tigers have gone 12-7.  This means that Minnesota is battling for their playoff lives, currently bient only 2.5 games ahead of Detroit for the last playoff spot.

But none of that really matters.  This series is against AL Central rivals with playoff implications for both teams.  This series matters, it is critical to us reach the above magic numbers (and as quickly as possible) and so, like every series at this time of year, is a crucial one.

We clearly need to hit better than we did against the White Sox and Tampa Bay, especially in the clutch, especially with 2 outs in the clutch.

We need to continue to get good starting pitching and good bullpen support.

We need to continue to play aggressive baseball and good-to-great defense.

We need to get our fair share of luck.

This is playoff baseball.  Let's gooooooo!  Any delay in pushing towards attaining these magic numbers adds extra stress that is not really needed at this time of year, especially given the razor-thin line we currently have between us winning and not winning.

Roster Moves?

Let's look at what has been made and what moves still could be made.  As we look at this list note that I have 2 premises for bringing a guy up:

• Michael Martinez premise - Would I rather see a guy walk to the plate (or to the mound) in the 10th inning of a WS game 7 with the game on the line compared to how I felt in 2016 when Martinez was our last hope?
• Does the guy we bring up have a good chance to add to our anemic offense or to support our pitching staff in the remainder of the regular season.  Put another way, would he increase our chances of winning ballgames over the guy we replace him with?

Angel Martinez up and Tyler Freeman down -  One of the moves I was asking the Guardians to make has been made. Freeman just wasn't helping this team right now.  Martinez may not help more than Freeman but it was time to make a change and see if he can.  We can always go back to Freeman if he gets hot in Columbus.  Note that Freeman's demotion likely WON'T cost us burning on of his option years as he shouldn't exceed 20 optioned days in the minors before the end of the regular season.

Andrew Walters up and Scott Barlow released - While this seems like a strange time to release Barlow, it is clear he had little to no role in the bullpen if Cleveland makes the playoffs.  It was scary to think of him in a tie game in the deciding game of the playoffs.  So this move was very pragmatic.  Walters adds another power arm to the bullpen and we are not married to him being on the the playoff roster. Even if he doesn't make the playoff roster we don't burn an option with him this year as options are only used if a player spends more than 20 days in the minors during the season.  As there are only 14 days left in the season, even if Walters was sent down today they don't burn one of his option years.

Erik Sabrowski - Another Walters-like promotion, Sabrowski is being tried out as the 2nd lefty in the pen with Hentges out for the season.  It has worked so far due to Sabrowski's stuff, experience and the league's unfamiliarity with him.

James Karinchak - I really believe time has run out on him this year unless we get to the ALCS and someone is injured.  Still, he is pitching leverage innings in Columbus and they could be playing as late as September 28th so he could get a lot of work in between now and the end of the regular season.  He could be a factor, although I am sure some fans would call using Karinchak vs using Barlow in the playoffs  (10 inning of game 7 criteria) being a toss-up in terms of scariness.

Franco Aleman - For those of us wanting to call him up just for a look, he hasn't pitched in 10 days so I doubt he will be playable this post-season...or maybe even during the regular season.  So while I see him rostered this winter if he hasn't had arm surgery before November, I doubt he will play in the majors this year.  Let's hope Aleman is healthy and can be a factor next year and, therefore, can be rostered this winter.  If he has arm surgery before the roster freeze in November, given the number of guys on the 40-man who won't be ready for ST next year, I doubt they waste a roster spot on Aleman.

Jonathon Rodriguez for Will Brennan - For those who want to see this happen, note that Brennan has already used up half of his minor league days (10 of 20).  Anything greater than 20 days in the minors after being optioned in a year will result in burning one of his option years.  If a move like this is going to happen, and I think it should since Brennan is not impacting the ball and has not changed his hitting profile at all to help be more productive for this team, it would have to happen no earlier than this Friday.  I want to see this happen so that Brennan can get regular at-bats if we plan to roster him for the playoffs but I also want to see a hot JRod get some reps in the majors before the playoffs if we plan to roster him.

Juan Brito - Man, I would love to see Brito up because, along with Martinez, he would give us more flexibility in combatting both LHP and RHP without doing platooning.  I just don't see a spot for him unless you send Manzardo down and Brito can DH.   Plus, while he is better against RHP than he was early in the season, his overall numbers don't scream bringing him up in the middle of the pennant race.

Carlos Carrasco for Pedro Avila - The average fan will not like this but I feel that this is a necessary move for the clubhouse in the playoffs.  Just like Hedges, Carrasco adds some intangibles and, if he can be effective in the role we targeted for him when we signed him, bulk reliever/swingman, then his clubhouse presence outweighs any value Avila has.  Bulk relievers are not that necessary in a short series as you try to win EVERY game and living to play another day rested has to be the least imprtant thing.  I don't know if keeping a bulk reliever is in the cards but, if it is, my vote goes to Carrasco...if we can get him significant relief innings before the end of the year.

So, lots of moves that COULD be made.  Whether any are actually made or the FO and Vogt decide to just play the status quo, we will see.  But the Guardians' status quo will likely not be enough to win in the playoffs and, even if it does win, is certainly NOT putting your best foot forward.  

Thoughts For A Monday - The Most Important Series of The Year and We Are Starting Joey Cantillo

What is freaking wrong with this FO and the coaching staff?  

In the last 24 hours we have:

• Pushed Alex Cobb's start back because he had a blister.
• Moved up Gavin Williams' start one day leading to a disastrous Saturday start
• Moved Tanner Bibee's start up a day so that he pitched in a game against the Dodgers that had a MUCH lower probability of getting us a win than if he had made his orginally scheduled start against the White Sox on Monday
• Cut Scott Barlow and, instead of giving a young reliever from AAA a chance, brought back Anthony Gose
• Losing 2-0 today, burned an appearance by Cade Smith trying to keep the game close in the 7th and then put in Gose in the 8th who gave up 2 runs.  If you KNEW you were going to put Gose in the 8th you knew that your chances of winning the game were going to be very low, so why not put Morgan in the 7th and save the possibility of pitching Smith 2 or 3 times against the White Sox in games we could win.

This has totally been mismanaged.  They knew Lively was likely to get pushed back BEFORE Saturday and they KNEW that Cobb was questionable even for Tuesday.  

Let me make this clear.  At this time of year

• Losing one game against Chicago in this series is unacceptable
• Losing two games is a disaster
• Losing 3 games should get someone fired

They are sitting on their hands with the offense as guys like Brennan and Freeman continue to hurt this team and Schneeman continues to see playing time and Thomas continues to bat high in the order even though he provides no protection for Naylor.  They refuse to try relief pitchers like Aleman and Walters even though they could clearly use the extra power arms in the bullpen.

As I said in my previous blog post, we are approaching a stretch where we could send guys down to AAA and bring other guys up without burning minor league options. 

Antonetti is wrong when he says they are going to go with the guys who got them here.  They didn't do that with Barlow.  They didn't do that with Allen and McKenzie.  

What they ARE doing is going with guys who were millstones around this team's neck for a team that won IN SPITE of those millstones.  They have internal options for hitters and relief pitchers.  I can't honestly say they have air-tight options for starting pitchers in the minors but they might want to give guys like Nikhazy and Webb a shot instead of Cantillo who has already failed multiple times this year.

But this is all about service time manipulation and hoping that they can wave their hands and magically the fan base will be happy if we limp into the playoffs on a big losing streak as the last wildcard team when we could have had a first round bye and even the #1 overall seed in the AL playoffs.

It's right there in your hands and you keep trying to make it tough on yourselves by repeatedly doing stupid things in the name of service time manipulation and playing just well enough to make the playoffs because, once the playoffs start, anything can happen, right?  

Thoughts For A Sunday Morning - California Dreamin' Style - UPDATE

 MAGIC NUMBERS

The Guardians have a chance for a series win against the Dodgers today.  While that would be a great accomplishment, the point here is to keep moving forward to make the magic numbers shrink.  Right now here is where we are:

Magic Number to make the playoffs:  11

Analysis - We have 81 wins.  The 4th place team in the wildcard race is Seattle, which has 70 losses.  Since we own the tiebreaker over them, we only have to tie them, leading to the current magic number. Today the Mariners play the Cardinals and appear to have the pitching advantage with Castillo going against Mikolas.  A loss by Seattle today brings the magic number to 10.

Magic Number to win the division: 17

Kansas City has taken the first two games in their series with Minnesota so Minnesota has some urgency to win today.  Right now Kansas City has 65 losses and combined with Cleveland's 81 wins and Kansas City owning the tiebreaker over Cleveland by virtue of them winning the season series, the magic number is a true magic number which bakes into it us finishing with a better record than KC.  Pretty even pitching matchup today but a KC loss brings this magic number to 16.

Magic number to clinich a first round playoff bye: 17

As I have said previously, this only works if we WIN the division.  But assuming we can hold on and actually win the division, Houston has 65 losses meaning our magic number to have a better record than Houston is exactly the same as winning the division, 17.  Nelson against Verlander is an interesting matchup in the ARI vs HOUS game today and we won't know the outcome of this until after the Cleveland game today as the Cleveland game will end about when the Houston game starts.

So, there you have it.  We control our own destiny but any help we can get from the teams playing Seattle, Kansas City and Houston today will be greatly appreciated.  Yes, Cleveland controls its own destiny.  Win and you're in. However, it's the time of the year that scoreboard watching is OK and even somewhat required.

WE HAVE A BULLPEN PROBLEM

Don't panic.  From what we all know the bullpen is fine.  What I mean is if I think about the playoffs, we have Clase, Smith, Gaddis and Herrin locked in based on their performance.  But what about after them?  Each one of the remaining guys could be replaced by someone in our system.  Let's take a peek at what that might look like:

Pedro Avila --- could be replaced by Carlos Carrasco

Thoughts: Look, Avila was good at what he did, but so would have Xzavion Curry have been and we DFA'd him.  Carrasco brings a good clubhouse presence, significant playoff experience, some relief experience, could perform better in short stints AND, as he nears the end of his career, is more incentivized and more likely, based on his experience, to be successful.

Scott Barlow --- Could be replaced by Franco Aleman

Thoughts:  Look, we know nothing about Aleman.   But we do know a lot about Barlow.  He is not effective in the regular season.  Replacing Barlow with someone else who has ANY chance of being effective in the post-season, based on his stuff AND the fact that the league doesn't know him, is worth considering.  

Eli Morgan --- Could be replaced by Erik Sabrowski

Thoughts: The idea of replacing a solid, innings-eating reliever with a rookie lefty with 2 games of experience is a wild concept.  But consider that Morgan would only be used when we need bridge innings from a short start to the end of the bullpen.  Losing Hentges was a blow but having a second lefty, one who would be solid vs LH batters, and better than Morgan, would be an interesting and gutsy play by Vogt.  There is no real reason to replace Morgan but if we can gain a slight advantage, maybe we should do it.

Nick Sandlin --- Replace with Andrew Walters

Thoughts: This is crazy.  Although Sandlin is a familiar whipping boy of the X crowd, his numbers, like those of Morgan, are freaking solid.  The only reason for this would be that Walters appears more of a shutdown reliever who can give you a solid inning.  No indication that Walters can be a Sandlin-like fireman, coming in the middle of innings to shut down a rally.  In fact, his command tends to indicate that he would be ineffective in that role.  So I think Sandlin is safe

Ben Lively --- Replace with Nic Enright, Sabrowski or Walters.

Thoughts:  Lively appears tired and replacing him in the wildcard round or the ALDS series, as those are short series, is a possible move to give Vogt extra guys who have pitched in the bullpen all year.

If the Guardians plan to do anything above they need to get guys up here and get their feet wet in the majors in the next couple of weeks to see if they could even be effective in MLB.   They have already done that with Sabrowski.  Now its time to look at the other guys.  

UPDATE - After I posted this I noted that Barlow has been DFA'd by the Guardians today.  Shocking!  But maybe they knew he had no role with the team the rest of the way and wanted to give his replacement extra time to get acclimated to a ML relief role and, if he is claimed, save a little money on a guy they don't have a role for right now.  Apparently they have recalled Anthony Gose AGAIN.  

TIME FOR SOME REINFORCEMENTS?

Following on the bullpen theme above, the ML rule is that if you send a guy to the minors, he has to be recalled within 20 days to avoid using up one of his minor league options.  Well, today is September 8th and the regular season ends on Sept. 29th.  So we are approaching the time where we can send someone to Columbus and recall him in time for the last series of the season against Houston without using an option.  

As Brennan and Freeman have not been optioned to Columbus this year AND are having trouble getting playing time, it might make sense to option them for 19 days and bring up Rodriguez and Valera.  Maybe the latter 2 can provide a spark like Schneeman and Noel did when they came up.  If not, we just swap them out for the last series and nothing is lost.  Plus, with Columbus having two more series and likely to make the playoffs, both Brennan and Freeman will be able to get plenty of ABs.  

If Rodriguez and Valera look good we would have, minimally, improved their trade value and possibly given the FO other options for the post-season roster as neither Freeman nor Brennan have playoff experience.  

Anyone who wonders about the value of an unknown quantity in the post-season, all you have to do is remember Evan Carter's value to Texas last post-season.

Again, however, if the team is going to do this it would be great if they did it starting in the White Sox series on Monday.  

We'll see.  The FO has not been very proactive in these situations this year.  Let's hope they are willing to take some gambles here as the offense is still not clicking and could use a spark.

2024 Rule 5 Draft - Part 1 - Looking Forward To This November - 40-Man Roster Headaches On The Horizon

 OK, we are about 2 months away from the November 40-man roster freeze and about 3 months away from MLB's winter meetings which culminate in the Rule 5 drafts (MLB and MILB segments) that are really driven by the Rule 5-eligible players left off of teams' 40-man rosters in November. 

Last month I wrote a blog post talking about how Cleveland HAD to make trades at the deadline in anticipation of the Rule 5 draft this winter, turning eligible players in the upcoming Rule 5 draft into major leaguers or lower level prospects not eligible for the Rule 5.  Much of that urgency was driven by the fact that most of the 2021 almost-all-college-pitcher draft was coming due for it's first Rule 5.  My angst was further fueled by the fact that there were lots of college pitchers from that draft who were performing very well and were at significant risk of being taken, and eventually lost, in the Rule 5.    We are now 1+ months later and we traded ZERO of the Rule 5-eligible guys and those guys have continued to perform at a high level in upper levels of the minors.  So the problem that existed back in July still exists.

Let's take a way too early look at the Guardians prospects who will be eligible this year and how they could slot into the November 40-man roster.

As a primer, here are the types of guys who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, if not protected on the November 40 man roster this November:

Eligible Again This Year

• College from the 2020 or earlier drafts (or signed in those years as college NDFAs)
• High school or international amateur signees from 2019 or before

Eligible For The First Time

• College players drafted (or signed as NDFAs) in 2021
• High school players signed in 2020 (NOTE: 2020 international class was signed in January, 2021, meaning they would be treated like 2021 HS draftees) 

So, looking at those criteria here are a list of the top prospects in the organization who could be eligible for the Rule 5 this winter and the level they currently are at in the organization [NOTE: The players in bold are likely to be selected in the Rule 5 draft if not protected]:

First-timers (2021 draftees except where noted)

• Doug Nikhazy (AAA)
• Ryan Webb (AAA)
• Franco Aleman (AAA)
• Will Dion (AAA)
• Tommy Mace (AA)
• Milan Tolentino (AA) (2020 draft as a HS player)
• Aaron Davenport (AA)
• Petey Halpin (AA) (2020 draft as a HS player)
• Trenton Denholm (AA)
• Alaska Abney (AA)

Selected/Prominent Returnees (2nd time or more eligible) To Rule 5

• Nick Mikolajchak (AAA)
• Andrew Misiaszek (AAA)
• Lenny Torres Jr. (AA)* (2018 draft as a HS player)
• Alexfri Planez (AA)
• Dayan Frias (A+)
• Esteban Gonzalez (A+)
• Jose Devers (A+)
• Nic Enright (AAA)

* - Theoretically a 6-year minor league free agent if not added to the roster after this season.

So, without even stretching on some guys, we have 9 prospects (in bold above), all pitchers, who could easily be targeted in the ML portion of the Rule 5 IF they are not protected on Cleveland's 40-man roster by November or traded in the off-season before that roster freeze.  All have had success at their highest level (AA or AAA) this year and all have appealing stuff to rebuilding ML teams who could easily find a slot for a young, controllable pitcher in their bullpen in 2025, after which that player could be sent back to the minors in 2026 to finish off their development, if necessary.

So that is 8 guys, all pitchers, who need slots on the 40-man roster this winter.  

Now that we have addressed the guys who we SHOULD probably roster this winter, let's take a look at whether we have spots for them

So, how does our 40-man roster look right now and which guys will be coming off that roster.

Current 40-man roster (4 guys counting 60-day DL players who have to be placed back on the roster after the season)

[NOTE: guys in bold coming off the roster after this season as they will be free agents]

[NOTE: guys who are most vulnerable to be DFA'd after the season, if not before, are in red bold]

PITCHERS (16, those not in bold or red bold)

Logan Allen

Pedro Avila

Scott Barlow

Tanner Bibee

Shane Beiber (60 Day IL)

Matthew Boyd

Joey Cantillo

Carlos Carrasco

Emmanuel Clase

Alex Cobb

Daniel Espino

Hunter Gaddis

Connor Gillispie

Sam Hentges (60 Day IL)

Tim Herrin

James Karinchak (60 Day IL)

Ben Lively

Triston McKenzie

Eli Morgan

Eric Sabrowski

Nick Sandlin

Cade Smith

Trevor Stephan (60-day IL)

Peter Strzelecki

Gavin Williams

CATCHERS (2)

Bo Naylor

Austin Hedges

David Fry

INFIELDERS (8)

Gabriel Arias

Juan Brito

Andres Gimenez

Kyle Manzardo

Josh Naylor

\Jose Ramirez

Brayan Rocchio

Daniel Schneeman

OUTFIELDERS (8)

Will Brennan

Tyler Freeman

Steven Kwan

Angel Martinez

Jhonkensy Noel

Jonathon Rodriguez

Lane Thomas

George Valera

OVERALL SUMMARY

Not counting guys who will be free agents or who are most vulnerable to be DFA'd after the season, we have 35 players on the 40-man roster, of which 3 are currently on the 60 Day IL.  

Of the free agents, we would clearly like to re-sign Shane Beiber and, if reasonable, Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb, in that order.  But that is a discussion for another day.  Focusing on the 40 man roster crunch this winter, the math is simple.  

• 35 players on the current 40 who will NOT be free agents and are NOT likely to be DFA'd after the season.
• NOTE: Logan Allen, James Karinchak and Triston McKenzie are possibilities to be non-tendered this winter. and are counted among the 35.
• 8 players (all pitchers) who are NOT on the 40-man who have a high likelihood to be taken in the Rule 5 draft (or lost as 6-year minor league free agents) if not placed on the 40 man this winter
• 1-3 free agent pitchers we would like to bring back next year
• Maybe bringing back Austin Hedges over the winter or replace him with Bryan Lavastida, who would be a 6-year minor league free agent if we don't roster him.

This creates a scenario where we obviously have more guys than spots.  How will the Guardians handle this process?  We'll see what happens. but they have generally been pretty good in the past, although the players they did have drafted and eventually lost were much lower rated than the 8 players I have listed above who need to be protected.  So, there's that.

MAGIC NUMBERS - IT AIN'T MAGIC AND IT AIN'T ROCKET SCIENCE

Happy September 5th! 

OK, it's getting exciting.  

We are 80-60.  Only 22 games to go in Cleveland's regular season.

Cleveland is getting close to a playoff spot. 

So it's time to talk magic numbers (the total combined wins by Cleveland and losses by their competitor(s) that will clinch a playoff spot for Cleveland)

The great thing about blog postings is that I could delete this if it is wrong but I think my math is correct.  So here goes:

Magic # to clinch the 3rd wildcard playoff spot

This is calculated for us as 162 - our wins - our closest competitor's losses).  It would be 163 instead of 162 except if you won the season series you own the tiebreaker over a team meaning you only have to TIE your competitor, not have a better record than them (thus 162 instead of 163).  So, it looks like this:

Boston - Magic number 12

Seattle - Magic number 12

Magic # to win the AL Central

Although Minnesota and Kansas City are tied for 2nd place right now, KC holds the tiebreaker with us and we hold it over Minnesota.  So we use KC to determine the magic number, Still, because KC has played 141 games, Minnesota 139 and Cleveland 140, the numbers end up being the same.

Kansas City - 18

Minnesota - 18

Magic # To Clinch a 1st round bye

We won't even get into what it will take to clinch the overall #1 seed.  There is no reasonable magic # for that yet since Cleveland, Baltimore and NYY are all within a game of each other.  However, we can calculate it for the AL West leader, Houston.   The only catch is that the number below won't matter if we don't win the AL Central.   So, assuming we DO win the AL Central, here is the magic number to get the #2 seed in the AL playoffs:

Houston - 19

So, there you have it.  For the morning of September 5th, these are the correct magic numbers, as far as my calculations show.  So, if you see other magic #s they are wrong, unless, of course, I am wrong.

Have a great Thursday.

Is It Too Early To Talk About Our Post-Season Roster?

 No.  Our magic number for making the playoffs is 15, meaning any combination of Cleveland wins and Boston losses equaling 15 means we are in the playoffs as the 3rd wildcard team.  The reason it is 15 and not 16 is because we own the tiebreaker with Boston as we won the season series 5-2.

While this is no guarantee, a magic number of 15 with 24 games to play is a pretty good indicator that the Guardians will likely be going to the playoffs (99.5% chance, according to Baseball Reference).

So, I think now is a good time to talk about a playoff roster. 

I think rosters can change from series to series and the roster for a best of 3 wildcard series could be different than that for a best of 5 ALDS series, which could be different from a best of 7 series in the ALCS and WS.  

Still, we can make a guess at what the roster would be like.

So, here are the hypotheses I used in constructing those rosters:

• No true mop up relievers
• No defensive replacements or pinch runners. I think Vogt is trending this way in his decisions (e.g., Noel in RF). but this should be remembered.  If you have trouble hitting you are out.  Backups at positions are OK but they have to be able to hit AND play defense AND run.
• Minimal position overlap.  By that I mean only a depth of 2 per position with some positions (SS, 2B, 3B) being only 1 guy
• Guys who come up from the minors have to offer something above and beyond what we already have, all things considered.
• I see very little upside in Brennan, Arias, Barlow, Morgan, Avila and, to a great extent, Sandlin on a playoff roster.  Like with Evan Carter last year, I am looking for unknowns to fill out the end of my roster, guys who might be able to sneak up on the opposition.
• 3 SP in the wildcard round and 4 in every other round.  The mopup man would likely be their 4th best starter in the wildcard round and 5th best starter in every other round.  So no true mopup man.  With a 13 man staff that means 9 solid relievers plus your 4th starter as mop up in the WC, 8 solid relievers plus your 5th starter as mop up in all other rounds.

So, with that in mind, here are my rosters for the playoff series

Wild Card (let's hope we don't need this one)

Starting Pitchers: Bibee, Boyd, Cobb

Long/Mop Up Man: Williams

Bullpen: Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin, Aleman, Walters, Carrasco, Sandlin, Sabrowski

C - Bo Naylor

1B - Josh Naylor

2B - Gimenez

SS - Rocchio (I know, I hate this one, too, but no one else has separated themselves from him)

3B - Ramirez

LF - Kwan

CF - Thomas

RF - Noel

DH - Manzardo

Bench: Hedges (C), but only if Fry can't catch, Schneeman (SS, CF, 3B, 2B), Fry (DH, C,1B, LF, RF), Rodriguez (RF, LF)

Summary: Hear me out.  I was going to include Martinez (CF, LF, RF, SS, 2B, 3B) instead of Rodriguez as the former is a switch hitter but I felt that I might need the thump more than the versatility.  Plus Valera is a LHH and looking at our position players I don't see a need for him in a best of 3.  In a short series thump matters (see Sponge Bob in 2022) and appropriate handedness thump matters more.  As far as pitching, Lively is the odd man out here.  He is back in the next round but not needed in a short series.  Williams can bring the heat which may be necessary if you go into extra innings and your long man has to go multiple innings and have the real possibility of getting out of an inning unscored upon.  In addition, if I make the playoffs I don't worry about service time or roster crunch.  Finally, not having Hentges is an ouch.  My plan in September is to move Cantillo to the bullpen in Columbus and use Sabrowski in the majors. Whoever looks better as a lefty reliever gets that 9th bullpen spot.  Carrasco is another X factor here, but I think his veteran presence gets him a spot on the roster and, if necessary, when the game is on the line, more than guys who have gotten bullpen chances all year.

ALDS

Starting Pitchers: Bibee, Boyd, Cobb, Lively

Long/Mop Up Man: Willams

Bullpen: Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin, Aleman, Walters, Carrasco, Sabrowski

C - Bo Naylor

1B - Josh Naylor

2B - Gimenez

SS - Rocchio (I know, I hate this one, too, but no one else has separated themselves from him)

3B - Ramirez

LF - Kwan

CF - Thomas

RF - Noel

DH - Manzardo

Bench: Hedges (C), only if Fry can't catch, Schneeman (SS, CF, 3B, 2B), Fry (DH, C,1B, LF, RF), Valera (CF, RF, LF)

Summary - I might change my mind here if Sabrowski is not effective but, as funny as it seems, I see Carrasco being able to complete 1 (or 2) clean innings compared to Morgan, Barlow or Sandlin and so I opt r the veteran Carrasco for his veteran Moxy and clubhouse presence and Sabrowski (or Cantillo) as the last reliever.  I really debated, again, about which of Valera, Martinez or Rodriguez would give us the best chance to win.  It depends on the pitching staff for their opponent but I am leaning towards Valera here.  In the 7 game series, I might change my mind.

ALCS and WS

Starting Pitchers: Bibee, Boyd, Cobb, Williams, Lively

Long/Mop Up Man: Carrasco

Bullpen: Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin, Aleman, Walters, Sabrowski

C - Bo Naylor

1B - Josh Naylor

2B - Gimenez

SS - Rocchio (I know, I hate this one, too, but no one else has separated themselves from him)

3B - Ramirez

LF - Kwan

CF - Thomas

RF - Noel

DH - Manzardo

Bench: Hedges (C), only if Fry can't catch, Schneeman (SS, CF, 3B, 2B), Fry (DH, C,1B, LF, RF), Martinez (SS, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, RF)

Summary - It would be VERY risky to throw Williams back in the rotation at this point but I think power wins.  I go with a 5 man rotation (again, risky).  In this series I go with Martinez as I value versatility more in 7 game series and his ability to switch hit and play multiple positions and impact the ball and run outweighs the thump of Rodriguez and Valera.  Now, if Valera or Rodriguez gets hot in the playoffs, I go all Evan Carter and keep (and play) that one.

OVERALL SUMMARY

So, there you have it.  Thump over versatility.  Veteran presence over younger but not stud players and plenty of young unknowns who the other teams will have to figure out, on the run, how to beat, taking a page from the Rangers last year.  

Since I don't get paid to make these decisions I doubt that they happen but they are even CONSIDERING some of this stuff, we need to make roster moves right now that will support us doing some or all of these things in October.  This means, once we get to September 11th (so we don't get to the 20 day period that costs us a minor league option on a player) send down Brennan, Morgan and Sandlin and bring up Aleman, Walters and Valera to get their feet wet and give Sabrowski some work and, if that is not working out, replace him with Cantillo in the last week.

Go Guards.