No. Our magic number for making the playoffs is 15, meaning any combination of Cleveland wins and Boston losses equaling 15 means we are in the playoffs as the 3rd wildcard team. The reason it is 15 and not 16 is because we own the tiebreaker with Boston as we won the season series 5-2.
While this is no guarantee, a magic number of 15 with 24 games to play is a pretty good indicator that the Guardians will likely be going to the playoffs (99.5% chance, according to Baseball Reference).
So, I think now is a good time to talk about a playoff roster.
I think rosters can change from series to series and the roster for a best of 3 wildcard series could be different than that for a best of 5 ALDS series, which could be different from a best of 7 series in the ALCS and WS.
Still, we can make a guess at what the roster would be like.
So, here are the hypotheses I used in constructing those rosters:
- No true mop up relievers
- No defensive replacements or pinch runners. I think Vogt is trending this way in his decisions (e.g., Noel in RF). but this should be remembered. If you have trouble hitting you are out. Backups at positions are OK but they have to be able to hit AND play defense AND run.
- Minimal position overlap. By that I mean only a depth of 2 per position with some positions (SS, 2B, 3B) being only 1 guy
- Guys who come up from the minors have to offer something above and beyond what we already have, all things considered.
- I see very little upside in Brennan, Arias, Barlow, Morgan, Avila and, to a great extent, Sandlin on a playoff roster. Like with Evan Carter last year, I am looking for unknowns to fill out the end of my roster, guys who might be able to sneak up on the opposition.
- 3 SP in the wildcard round and 4 in every other round. The mopup man would likely be their 4th best starter in the wildcard round and 5th best starter in every other round. So no true mopup man. With a 13 man staff that means 9 solid relievers plus your 4th starter as mop up in the WC, 8 solid relievers plus your 5th starter as mop up in all other rounds.
So, with that in mind, here are my rosters for the playoff series
Wild Card (let's hope we don't need this one)
Starting Pitchers: Bibee, Boyd, Cobb
Long/Mop Up Man: Williams
Bullpen: Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin, Aleman, Walters, Carrasco, Sandlin, Sabrowski
C - Bo Naylor
1B - Josh Naylor
2B - Gimenez
SS - Rocchio (I know, I hate this one, too, but no one else has separated themselves from him)
3B - Ramirez
LF - Kwan
CF - Thomas
RF - Noel
DH - Manzardo
Bench: Hedges (C), but only if Fry can't catch, Schneeman (SS, CF, 3B, 2B), Fry (DH, C,1B, LF, RF), Rodriguez (RF, LF)
Summary: Hear me out. I was going to include Martinez (CF, LF, RF, SS, 2B, 3B) instead of Rodriguez as the former is a switch hitter but I felt that I might need the thump more than the versatility. Plus Valera is a LHH and looking at our position players I don't see a need for him in a best of 3. In a short series thump matters (see Sponge Bob in 2022) and appropriate handedness thump matters more. As far as pitching, Lively is the odd man out here. He is back in the next round but not needed in a short series. Williams can bring the heat which may be necessary if you go into extra innings and your long man has to go multiple innings and have the real possibility of getting out of an inning unscored upon. In addition, if I make the playoffs I don't worry about service time or roster crunch. Finally, not having Hentges is an ouch. My plan in September is to move Cantillo to the bullpen in Columbus and use Sabrowski in the majors. Whoever looks better as a lefty reliever gets that 9th bullpen spot. Carrasco is another X factor here, but I think his veteran presence gets him a spot on the roster and, if necessary, when the game is on the line, more than guys who have gotten bullpen chances all year.
ALDS
Starting Pitchers: Bibee, Boyd, Cobb, Lively
Long/Mop Up Man: Willams
Bullpen: Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin, Aleman, Walters, Carrasco, Sabrowski
C - Bo Naylor
1B - Josh Naylor
2B - Gimenez
SS - Rocchio (I know, I hate this one, too, but no one else has separated themselves from him)
3B - Ramirez
LF - Kwan
CF - Thomas
RF - Noel
DH - Manzardo
Bench: Hedges (C), only if Fry can't catch, Schneeman (SS, CF, 3B, 2B), Fry (DH, C,1B, LF, RF), Valera (CF, RF, LF)
Summary - I might change my mind here if Sabrowski is not effective but, as funny as it seems, I see Carrasco being able to complete 1 (or 2) clean innings compared to Morgan, Barlow or Sandlin and so I opt r the veteran Carrasco for his veteran Moxy and clubhouse presence and Sabrowski (or Cantillo) as the last reliever. I really debated, again, about which of Valera, Martinez or Rodriguez would give us the best chance to win. It depends on the pitching staff for their opponent but I am leaning towards Valera here. In the 7 game series, I might change my mind.
ALCS and WS
Starting Pitchers: Bibee, Boyd, Cobb, Williams, Lively
Long/Mop Up Man: Carrasco
Bullpen: Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin, Aleman, Walters, Sabrowski
C - Bo Naylor
1B - Josh Naylor
2B - Gimenez
SS - Rocchio (I know, I hate this one, too, but no one else has separated themselves from him)
3B - Ramirez
LF - Kwan
CF - Thomas
RF - Noel
DH - Manzardo
Bench: Hedges (C), only if Fry can't catch, Schneeman (SS, CF, 3B, 2B), Fry (DH, C,1B, LF, RF), Martinez (SS, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, RF)
Summary - It would be VERY risky to throw Williams back in the rotation at this point but I think power wins. I go with a 5 man rotation (again, risky). In this series I go with Martinez as I value versatility more in 7 game series and his ability to switch hit and play multiple positions and impact the ball and run outweighs the thump of Rodriguez and Valera. Now, if Valera or Rodriguez gets hot in the playoffs, I go all Evan Carter and keep (and play) that one.
OVERALL SUMMARY
So, there you have it. Thump over versatility. Veteran presence over younger but not stud players and plenty of young unknowns who the other teams will have to figure out, on the run, how to beat, taking a page from the Rangers last year.
Since I don't get paid to make these decisions I doubt that they happen but they are even CONSIDERING some of this stuff, we need to make roster moves right now that will support us doing some or all of these things in October. This means, once we get to September 11th (so we don't get to the 20 day period that costs us a minor league option on a player) send down Brennan, Morgan and Sandlin and bring up Aleman, Walters and Valera to get their feet wet and give Sabrowski some work and, if that is not working out, replace him with Cantillo in the last week.
Go Guards.
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