Happy 2025!

 To everyone, especially those who read this blog, I wish you a safe and happy new year.  I hope that you will enjoy the actual baseball more and stress about little things less.

Dennis

Roki Sasaki and the Roki Sasaki Fallout

 OK, free agents are being signed left and right and a lot of the FA SP are off the board already.  So you know what that means?

IT'S ROKI SASAKI TIME

So, where does that leave the Guardians?  Let's talk some background first:

• Sasaki, being only 23, will be treated like the 16 year old international free agents.
• Any loophole, over or under the table, that you might think of that could give more affluent franchises the advantage, MLB has language in its rules that closes that possibility. 
• Chiba, his present team, will receive a posting fee of 25% of his eventual bonus 
• The Guardians' pool for international FAs is $6,908,600.  8 teams have $7,555,500 (A's, Reds, Tigers, Twins, Marlins, Brewers, Mariners, Rays).  All the rest have the same or less than the Guardians.
• Teams can start signing international free agents on Jan. 15th and AFTER THAT DATE can trade for more international bonus pool money, in increments up to $250,000 and can increase their international bonus pool by up to 50% (some sources say 60%).  So, for example, if the Guardians wanted to trade players for international pool money, they could, theoretically, increase their bonus pool to $10,362,900 but that would have to involve 14 trades!  Just to get to equal footing with the top tier of teams who have the $7,555,500 bonus allotment this year, they would have to make 3 trades where they acquired the $250,000 max per trade.
• As a final way to avoid any funny business, MLB will simply not approve any signing that exceeds the bonus pool of a team.
• Sasaki has set January 25th as when he will make his decision, strategically giving teams a chance to increase their bonus pool for him by making trades to acquire money after January 15th.  
• International signings of $10,000 or less do not count against a team's bonus pool.  Those signings above $10,000 all count against a team's pool.  Teams, supposedly, have deals in place with players way ahead of the signing period, including bonus amounts. 
• The information I have read shows that the Guardians, who are linked to 25 players for the upcoming signing period, have committed to the following bonuses.
• Hiverson Lopez - $900,000
• Heins Brito - $800,000
• In the 2024 signing period they used all but roughly $400,000 of their bonus pool and traded most of the rest of it away during the season.  So, even though we only see $1.7 million committed so far, there could be a lot more in bits and pieces that could add up to closer to their current pool of close to $7 million

So, that is where we stand right now.  Let's talk about things that MIGHT happen and signs that we should be watching for as we go over the next 3 weeks:

1. Teams might hold off on signing their other international free agents if they think they have a good chance to sign Sasaki
2. Teams may start trading away players for international bonus pool money.  Any trade made before January 15th can't include 2025 international bonus money.
3. You could see something rarely seen in international signing periods: players could jump from the team they were supposed to sign with to another team if the team they were supposed to sign with is delaying their signing or asking them to take less money so they can save money to sign Sasaki.

This entire process is very rare.  For people who follow these international signings closely they will likely see things they may never have seen.

It will be interesting...more so if the Guardians sign Sasaki.

For me, I am torn.  The Guardians have made promises to these kids about signing them and about the bonus amounts they will be given.  Ethics would say stick to those promises.  However, very few, if any, of these kids will even make the majors.  So sign 24 players who are 16 years old or one player who is a stud pitcher who is ML ready and has ace potential and, either not sign the kids or stiff them on their bonuses.  

2025 Roster - What Makes Sense and What Doesn't

 OK, it's the hot stove.  Fans of the Guardians love to project lineups and rosters.  So let's do the same. Here are some ground rules I will use in mine.

• No free agent signings that only provide likely or possible incremental improvement over internal options. The trades they made so far made this team anywhere from incrementally to somewhat weaker than last year.  You don't get to spend precious dollars just to recoup those losses, especially with the meager returns from those trades.
• No trades to bring in veterans. Same philosophy.  You lost talent and you don't get to trade prospects to get talent back.
• No moves that bring in platoon players.   You're roster has 13 position players.  You have used up 10 with your 9 starters and Hedges.  There is no room to waste a roster spot on a half-time (or less) player.  Utility players are the way to go for those last 3 spots UNLESS you sign one full-time RFer.  
• No relief pitchers on major league deals.  Hey, bring in a few relief pitchers who are as quality if you can get them on minor league deals.  But you just traded away, for very little return, 2 solid middle relievers who weren't going to cost you a lot.  As I said above you just can't double back and spend money on more expensive relievers.  We tried that with Barlow.  How did that work?
• No starting pitcher a major league deal who is worse than your current #2 starter. Look, you always need more pitching.  But this proviso says go big or go home.  You have enough warm bodies already.  Maybe Quantrill or Carrasco or Lorenzen on a minor league deal.
• We need a star - Look, we need someone to hit cleanup who is GOOD at hitting cleanup.  Santana is a #6 hitter at this point of his career.  Lane Thomas is exposed at 4 or 5. Manzardo and Noel are essentially rookies and rookies don't hit 4th because they can't be expected to put fear into the hearts of pitchers.  Therefore, they are no protection for Jose. Santander is a switch hitter, he hit cleanup all last year and he is a RFer.  Everything we need.  And he makes our lineup.  No other FA outfielders are anything more than trying to fit a square peg in a round hole or as a platoon or incremental improvement.  Santander is it.  

So, with those provisos, I have looked at all the prominent and less prominent and less prominent options and here is what I see the lineup and 26-man roster looking like in 2025.

Lineup:

1. Kwan LF

2. Brito 2B

3. Ramirez 3B

4. Santander RF

5. Manzardo DH

6. Santana 1B

7. Thomas CF

8. Naylor C

9. Rocchio SS

Bench:

Hedges - C

Freeman (likely) or Arias - Utility IFer - backup middle infielder and utility player

Noel (likely) or Brennan - Extra OFer - Prioritize power and versatility over experience.  Probably Fry once he is healthy

Angel Martinez (likely) or Schneeman - Utility IF/OF - Switch hitter over LHH.  

Rotation:

1. Bibee

2. Ortiz

3. Williams

4. Lively

5. McKenzie

Bullpen:

1. Clase

2. Smith

3. Gaddis

4. Herrin

5. Sabrowski

6. Walters

7. Avila

8. Aleman (Stephan when he is healthy)

Summary

So there you have it.  One FA signing makes this lineup better.  You are still banking on Brito being better than Gimenez, overall, and Santana being as good as Naylor with both of the replacement (Brito, Santana) maybe fitting in better and accepting lesser roles than Naylor and Gimenez would have been.  

Thoughts For A Snowless Christmas Eve

 When you live where I live, cloudy and below average temperatures are about as close as you get to a white Christmas.  

That being said, the prevailing weather still gives me a chance to look outside and reflect on what has transpired so far in the Guardians' off-season...and to look ahead at what this SHOULD mean for the rest of the off-season.

Guardsfest

The off-season started with the Guardians cancelling the next 2 winter festivals, claiming that it is what fans said they wanted.  That, of course, is not true and it came to light that the move was totally based on them trying to save money.   That was not a good way to start the off-season if you were a Guards fan who realized how much extra money the team made this year from increased attendance and making it to the ALCS.

Trading Eli Morgan

While this wasn't a huge move, it signaled that management thought we had an excess of relievers and, so, they were comfortable with dumping Morgan as they felt we had a lot of depth in the reliever core AND WILL NOT NEED TO TRADE FOR RELIEF PITCHERS.  This was re-emphasized by the fact that our return from this trade was an outfielder who was 3-5 years away from playing in the majors, if he ever makes it at all.  

Rule 5 Draft

I mention this so I can once again say that I will never, ever doubt the FO in who they choose to protect or not protect in the Rule 5.  Frankly, there was no way this could have gone better for Cleveland.

Trading Gimenez and Sandlin to Toronto

The reason for this trade was a salary dump.  Looking at the trade we also had to throw in Nick Sandlin to dump the remaining 5 years of Gimenez's salary, indicating that we were very motivated to dump money and, once again, signaling that the FO thinks we have more than enough RH ML relief pitchers.  The return on this trade was a 27-year old 1B/2B with one real season of ML experience and a minor league OFer likely of the same pedigree and ability as Joe Lampe.   Clearly, the return for Gimenez and Sandlin were not important and the FO, by their own admission, believes that our internal options can provide as much value, or more, than Gimenez.

Trading Horwitz for Ortiz and Two Pitching Prospects

Horwitz, the centerpiece of the trade that cost us Gimenez and Sandlin, was traded to Pittsburgh for a ML SP, Luis Ortiz and two decent pitching prospects.  This, on the surface, looks like an incredibly good deal for Cleveland.  The two pitching prospects they received have lots of control left before they reach Rule 5 eligibility and Ortiz had a really good year in 2024, including a dominant start against Cleveland.  Still, you have to wonder how Horwitz could be worth this much.  When I look at this trade I am waiting for the other shoe to drop.  No way is Pittsburgh that stupid to give up a guy like Ortiz for Horwitz, let alone two pitching prospects.  The peripherals surrounding Ortiz's 2024 season suggest he is set for a downturn in 2025.  This matches the fact that he was included as one of three pieces for Horwitz.  

Trading Josh Naylor and signing Carlos Santana

As I have said previously, trading Josh Naylor is NOT the problem.  Clearly everything poionted to them dumping him.  The issue was, as with the Cubs and Toronto trades, was how the return on those trades was going to help the Guardians in 2025.  As with both the Gimenez and Morgan trades, that return is non-helpful to 2025.  The acquisition of Santana ONLY makes sense if we can fill other needs on our roster.  We needed more starting pitching who could immediately improve our rotation in 2025.  We needed a corner outfielder with power.  We needed a quality LH reliever.  None of those needs were addressed in ANY of these three trades.  Hey, signing Santana as a replacement for Naylor is not the issue.  It is the combination of the return for Naylor PLUS Santana that has to be a win for Cleveland in 2025.  Sadly, it is not even close, leaving the FO supporters on the internet grasping for indications on how Slade Cecconi is really better than his 6.66 ERA in 2024 would indicate.  Well, maybe they can make him better but let's face it.  There is little or no chance that Cecconi was highly valued by Arizona and there is little to no chance that he will be able to fix whatever is mechanically wrong with him by 2025 opening day, meaning that his use in the majors at that moment will likely lead to mostly losses where he buries his team so badly that they will never be able to score enough runs to offset his bad performance.  And our offense is hurt by substituting Santana for Naylor.  How much is a question.  Clearly the FO believes that Santana's overall game is = or > Naylor's in 2025 as the return on this deal actually did nothing to help the team in 2025 IF Santana, at 39 years old, has a downturn in his performance in 2025.

Summary

Hey, this off-season can still be saved if we sign Anthony Santander and Roki Sasaki.  But right now our team is weaker than it was at the end of the 2024 season.  Also, if we thought that it was a good idea to trade away position players with good resumes for essentially nothing, there should be ZERO need to trade valuable prospect assets to backfill positions you just vacated or failed to fill when you traded away the players you have this off-season.  So, to me, the only path left is free agency.  The Guardians have to open their wallets and sign quality hitters and maybe a quality SP.  They need to do this without having to dump other salaries. 

This fanbase and the players on this team deserve the best effort possible by management to make this a competitive team. So far this off-season, that has not happened.

I am waiting for the other shoe to drop and, unlike to this point in the off-season, it should clearly be a good next move instead of a continued series of contradictory, non-sensical movess.  

We deseerve better than that.

So Josh Naylor, Too?

 Josh Naylor was traded today.  

That should really not surprise anyone.  We all know that players approaching their final year of control who won't sign an extension with the Guardians are likely to be traded.

So, let's assume we had to trade him.  The goal should have been to get something back that will help this team be stronger in 2025.

If you include our free agent signing we got back:

• Carlos Santana
• Santana will be 39 this season.  Naylor will be 27 and, in his walk year, would have been highly motivated to have a great year.
• Santana will actually be paid about the same or a little more than Naylor this year.
• While his WAR was higher, Santana is not a power hitter with a good part of his offensive value being a good batting eye.  But for him to be effective there has to be someone to drive HIM in.  
• Santana hit cleanup a handful of times this year, hitting mostly 6th, 5th, 7th and 8th in that order.  He is not a cleanup hitter.  But he is replacing one.
• Santana has to play all the time to make his contract worth it.  No way he platoons with Manzardo as you don't pay the short side of a platoon $12 million.   Thus some young player is going to lose ABs because Santana will play...a lot.
• Slade Cecconi
• He had a 6.66 ERA last year for Arizona.  He is a project, to be sure.  He is not nearly a finished ML pitcher and will likely need some in development, meaning his true worth won't be known until 2026 and any reps he gets this year have a real good chance to hurt our chances of winning games.
• Arizona's Competitive Balance B pick.  
• Currently the 72nd overall pick, which will add about $1.2 million to our budget pool, if you count the increase from 2024 and us adding in the 5% overage.

To me, the important question is did this trade (and the signing of Santana) make us a better team in 2025? For the answer to be 'yes' the following would have to happen:

• Santana would have to repeat his 2024 season.
• Santana would have to provide Jose Ramirez the same protection in the lineup that Naylor did or, I guess, someone else would have to step into the 4 hole and provide Ramirez that protection.
• Naylor would have to tank like he did towards the end of 2024
• Cecconi would have to some quality role in our 2025 ML team.
• We would have to backfill Naylor's offense somewhere else in the lineup

Unfortunately, for me, none of these 5 things seem likely.  Even if you want to look at intangibles, I doubt that the veteran leadership Santana brings offsets the intensity and production that Naylor brought.  I don't think that any pitchers will say 'Man, I have to pitch to Ramirez because Santana is a great guy in the clubhouse'.  If it works out the way I think it will, Ramirez's production will drop this year as he tries to do more than he already tries to do.  I could see him hitting .260 with 25 HRs in 2025 just because people won't pitch to him.  While those numbers aren't bad, he hit 39 HRs in 2024.  

So, there have to be other moves and here are my thoughts on them:

• We need to get an impact OF bat to offset the loss of Naylor's production and protect Jose.
• We need another SP but only through free agency.  With how we have hurt the offensive production of this team with no guarantee we can replace what we have lost, there is not reason to overspend in a trade where we give up prospects and get a ML SP back.  We could be out of the race by June and those prospects will then be wasted as the SP we obtain will not have any meaningful impact on our season.
• We need a veteran LH reliever in free agency.  Counting on Sabrowski is a foolish move.
• We need to get a couple of veteran RH RP on minor league deals (e.g. Enyel De Los Santos and Luke Jackson)

In summary, I think this trade along with that of Gimenez, move us a lot closer to having a lottery pick in the 2026 amateur draft.  So, have some confidence that if these questionable moves hurt our record like I am pretty sure they at least they will, in a twisted way, help our competitiveness in 2029.

The Cleveland Guardians are weaker right now than they were at the end of the 2024 season.  Unless there are good moves, ones that bring in good players without costing us prospects, coming by spring training, we have a real good chance to be out of the race before Beiber is ready to pitch.

Thoughts for A Thursday - Non-roster invites and Minor League Signings

 OK, just taking a few minutes to muse over the current roster and what we need to do for the rest of the off-season.

VETERANS TO BE ADDED TO THE ROSTER OR INVITED TO ST ON A MINOR LEAGUE DEAL

• We need at least one more legitimate starting pitcher on a ML deal and one on a minor league deal.  We COULD obtain one through trade using prospects or through free agency. 
•  Looking at available FA starters I would focus on:
• Roki Sasaki (mine and, likely, most peoples' personal choice)
• Kyle Gibson (not as enticing now that Gimenez has been traded)
• Patrick Sandoval (probably available for Griffin Canning-like money or a minors deal)
• Carlos Carrasco (minor league deal)
• Spencer Turnbull (minor league deal)
• Cal Quantrill (minor league deal)
• Looking at available starters through trade
• Jesus Lazardo (I think this one is possible if the Marlins will take not-quite-ready for the ML prospects (Genao, Kayfus, Halpin)
• Dylan Cease (I don't like this one although dealing with San Diego has worked out in the past)
• We need a TRUE #3 catcher on a minor league deal.  Dom Nunez is NOT that.  I don't ever want to see him in the majors unless we have 3 catchers on the IL.  Functionally, we have one (Fry) on the IL.  Both Hedges AND Naylor would have to be on the IL for me to call up Nunez so we need one more catcher.   We should sign 2, both on minor league deals.  Here's a list.
• Bryan Lavastida (I might even go with a ML deal if we could find the roster space as he knows our pitchers)
• Max Stassi
• Curt Casali
• Yan Gomes
• We need an impact bat in the outfield.  I would go free agency on this one, as there are enough guys I think we can sign one. The guys, in order, that I would try to go after, with most on major league deals unless otherwise noted.
• Anthony Santander (pipe dream, I know, but he fits so well with what we need.  This is a move that really locks out Noel and JRod from playing, something that the Guardians have said is NOT the kind of addition they are lookng for)
• Austin Hays (a stretch in RF but I like the bat, although I don't know how we get Noel or JRod ABs if we sign Hays)
• Randal Grichuk (minor league deal, same issue with Noel and JRod)
• Jesse Winker (I REALLY don't like this one because I think Brennan is just as good an option but I guess, on a minor league deal, it couldn't hurt to kick the tires)
• We need one competent LH reliever and a couple of competent RH relief depth guys.  Not like our usual depth guys who are the leftovers of AAAA after every other team has had their pick.  We need to strike early here.  A few examples would be:
• Matt Moore, LHP (minor league deal)
• Enyel De Los Santos, RHP (minor league deal)
• James Karinchak, RHP (minor league deal)
• Luke Jackson, RHP (minor league deal)
• Ryan Borucki, LHP (minor league deal)

NON-ROSTER INVITEES 

In addition to the veterans on minor league deals who we sign, some quality minor leaguers are invited to ST.  Here are some thoughts about guys I would like to see:

• Travis Bazzana - 2B
• Cooper Ingle - C
• Jacob Cozart - C
• CJ Kayfus - 1B/OF
• Kody Huff - C
• Nick Mikolajczak - RH RP
• Andrew Misiaszek - LH RP
• Ryan Webb - LH RP (was a closer in college)
• Alaska Abney - RH RP
• Tommy Mace - RH SP
• Aaron Davenport - RH SP

Almost all the pitchers in the group above would be auditioning for possible relief roles during the season.  

Thoughts For A Tuesday - What Are These People Thinking Post

 JOSH NAYLOR TRADE PROPOSALS

I am constantly amazed at the trade proposals that are brought forward by 'experts' at this time of year.

Let's look at the proposals so far for Josh Naylor:

• Naylor for Trent Grisham and Will Warren
• Naylor for Will Warren and Clayton Beeter
• Naylor for Cade Smith and Jorbit Vivas

All you have to do is look at what each of these trades would do to the chances of the two teams making the playoffs and having a run in said playoffs.  

• For Cleveland, unless they backfill Naylor's production, it basically will kill their playoff chances.  The pitchers and position players proposed will likely not help us this season and tend to be low ceiling, high floor guys. At best, they will keep the ship afloat so we can finish close to .500.    Grisham is expecially comical.  Having seen Grishamm for multiple years in San Diego, I would rather have Myles Straw.  We already have sunk money into the latter.
• For the Yankees this dramatically increases both the chances of making the playoffs and the chances of returning to the World Series.

But that's really what you see over the winter from 'experts'.  Trades that will help their team win because they think Cleveland wants to dump high salaries and don't care about winning.  Or that it doesn't matter what Cleveland wants because they don't deserve to be in the playoffs, anyway.  Yeah, right!

But my favorite came from a Guardians' fan:

• Josh Naylor and a reliever (presumably Hunter Gaddis) for Jasson Dominguez

This is especially comical because the Yankees overhype their prospects and trading for Dominguez, who isn't even ML-ready yet (and my never be, really), despite his high prospect rating (#14 in MLB), will likely not help us win in 2025. C'mon, guys.  Have a little more respect for our team than that!

WE HAVE ENOUGH RELIEVERS!  REALLY???

After trading Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin I was chastised when I said we couldn't afford to trade any more relievers.  Well, here are our relievers for 2025 on the 40-man roster:

• Franco Aleman
• Pedro Avila 
• Emmanuel Clase
• Nic Enright
• Hunter Gaddis
• Tim Herrin
• Erik Sabrowski
• Cade Smith
• Trevor Stephan (may be available in May)
• Andrew Walters

That is 9 relievers who will be available on opening day with 4 of them (Aleman, Enright, Sabrowski and Walters) having little or ZERO ML experience and the other 5 (Avila, Gaddis, Herrin, Smith, Clase) all were overused in 2024.  Aleman and Stephan are coming off of injuries.  Plus Avila was DFA'd last year, so, there's that.  And Hentges and likely Espino will be on the IL most or all of the year.

So, right now, we are not in great shape in the bullpen.  Ah, but people say we have other guys who might be able to work out of the bullpen:

• Lively
• McKenzie
• Cantillo
• Logan Allen

Maybe.  But, really?  You want to try to patchwork BOTH your rotation AND your bullpen?  When you lineup is sub-optimal offensively and worse defensively than last year, with the latter not being even particularly close, IMO.  Really?

And you want to trade MORE relief pitching to fill other gaps?  No way.

THAT'S YOUR BACKUP PLAN AT CATCHER...REALLY???

The Guardians signed 30 year old Dom Nunez to a minor league deal.

He represents the next man up as a ML catcher if either Naylor or Hedges get hurt.

Nunez is who he is.  He's a AAAA player who can't hit in the major leagues and should be at AAA (or AA) to work with our young pitchers and give our catching prospects a breather.

He should be probably the third option for a callup to the majors in case of an emergency.  Not the first.

We need to re-sign Bryan Lavastida.  I wanted to add him to the roster before the roster freeze and we didn't do it.  So he lingers on the FA market.

I am truly tired of these AAAA relievers, AAAA catchers being top options as injury replacements in the majors.  We are on a razor's edge as to whether we qualify for the playoffs.  We can't be in a position where we are giving games away just because we haven't planned well to have quality depth options at AAA to be called up in case of injuries.

Imagine a universe where your catching duo/platoon is Austin Hedges and Dom Nunez!  Can we have the pitchers hit and DH for the catcher position?

This seems to be the MO of the Guardians.  Sign really bad AAAA players to minor league contracts thinking that you can bring them up for a few days and DFA them without losing much talent.  Roster flexibility over competitiveness.  Not a way to win a championship, IMO.

Thoughts For A Friday - Rule 5/Roster Freeze Promise, Trade Fallout and Potpourri

 RULE 5 DRAFT

I have said it elsewhere but will say it here for posterity.   I will NEVER, EVER, EVER question the Guardians FO (at least when Antonnetti is around) when it comes to roster freeze day and the Rule 5 draft.  

Whether it was dumb luck or whether it was reading the room, the Guardians did not lose any of the pitching prospects I felt they might lose.  

Congrats to the FO for knowing the Rule 5 and what teams are looking for.  I thought with the Mitch Spence success from the 2023 R5, teams might be on pitchability pitchers who were ready or close to ready to immediately move into ML rotations.

But, as often happens in the R5, I have no clue what teams are looking for and neither do most experts.  

So, we move on next year and keep Webb, Davenport, Denholm, Abney, Mace, Mikolajchak, Misiaszek, Hanner and others who can and likely will (if we stop the infernal AAAA pitcher train from ever leaving the station) impact our 2025 ML roster at some point.

As far as the minor league portion, there was nothing to see there.  If Will Wilson, with our middle infield prospect backup, ever sees the Guardians' ML roster I will be amazed.  I would have rather have some slow developing, low A, flyer pitcher with a big fastball who we could put into our pitching lab to straighten him out.  

BTW, do people realize that Justin Campbell, our 2022 Comp A pick, will be eligible for the R5 in 2025 and he has not even thrown a single professional pitch due to injury.   There HAD to be someone out there like this in 2024 that we could have latched on to.

But, who am I to second-guess our R5 braintrust.  Don't know if it will stay this way due to people moving on to promotions in other organizations but, right now, they are the best in the majors, in my opinion, at 40 man roster management in anticipation of the R5 draft.

TRADES AFTERMATH

Some thoughts about these trades:

• Dumping Gimenez to save money sounds cheap, especially on the heels of the Guards Fest announcement and with the surface uncertainty about their finances due to the TV deal situation. 
• There appear to be two very polarized sides of the debate about the Gimenez to Toronto trade
• Gimenez's defense is more valuable than people think
• Gimenez's salary in the future wasway overpaying for his offensive production.

I tend to fall on the cheap side.  Yes, paying Gimenez up to $23 million a year for his current production is untenable for a cheap, small market club like Cleveland.  With a low and rock solid budget line we just couldn't keep him if we planned to do other, expensive side.  But the key to do is that we HAVE to spend the savings from dumping his contract.  That is, we have to do one or both of two things to make this trade make sense:

• Play the long game and sign Kwan and Bibee to extensions.  By this I mean that they pray they can get enough production out of our second base prospects that their offense offets thair defensive liability (rated against what Gimenez brings).  But even if they can't they have at least locked up their core to build a championship-caliber roster over the next couple of years with reinforcements from the minors and other veteran-for-prospects trades with Josh Naylor and/or Lane Thomas.
• Play the shorter game and use the money to bring in (either in FA or  trade) high-priced starting pitchers to keep us in contention until Beiber and Stephan come back and/or we get reinforcements from Columbus.

We absolutely have to.  If we don't do that this winter we are NOT trying to win or create a championship roster.  Our owner is simply selling off players to make money...or avoid the risk of possibly losing money (if you factor in the incredibly cheap and shortsighted cancellation of Guards Fest).  The ownership has to know the fans are watching.  If they think the fans will drink the koolaid and keep showing up in the face of self-serving profiteering by Dolan, I think they will find out otherwise.

PLAYERS WE RECEIVED IN THE TRADES

I want to break this down into 2 parts: players we got from Toronto and those we got from Pittsburgh.

The return from Toronto was undeniably light.  We recieve a Will-Brennan-like OF prospect in Mitchell and a guy, Horwitz, so far down the depth chart in Toronto that they didn't even have a defensive spot for him and his middling bat.  Twenty-seven year old players don't just burst on the scene and become 55 grade major leaguers (like Gimenez was). They become bit players or platoon players.  The fact that we had to include Sandlin (who should have, himself, brought back AT LEAST Mitchell) was disturbing.

But then we traded with Pittsburgh.  I applaud turning Horwitz into 3 legitimate pitchers.  But there are a few comments on want to make on this trade.

• Do you really think that Horwitz was worth THREE guys of the quality that we received?
• Do you really think that Pittsburgh, if they thought these three pitchers were quality, would have EVER given them up for Horwitz, who was older and has not shown the ability to even be a ML regular, let alone a GOOD MLer?  If you answered yes because you think Pittsburgh is just that stupid or yes because you think Horwitz is better than he is...then you and I will just have to disagree.

So, what we have left, IMO, is the occam's razor answer that Ortiz is overrated and will likely become Logan Allen part deux in 2025 and that Hartle will be the middling prospect who never turns out and Kennedy will be, at best, Bresnahan.  As far as Mitchell, we have my Will Brennan comparison.

All that being said, these trades do two things that headscratching, apparently salary dump trades made by small market teams tend to do:

• They bring in someone like Ortiz that, if he hits (Clase in the salary dump of Kluber is an example) the FO looks like geniuses, even if logic and analytics question if he was just lucky in 2024.  I think a prime example of how our eyes can fool us is when Cleveland traded blocked thirdbase prospect Kevin Kouzmanoff for Josh Barfield after Barfield's magnificent rookie season in San Diego's cavernous ballpark.  No way any of us thought that would turn out as badly as it did...but that was before analytics, LOL.
• They contain players (Mitchell and Kennedy) who are so far away from the majors that the axiom about not being able to really judge a trade for 5 years is still in play. Including Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene in the Lindor deal was an example of this.

So, there you have it.  I am not a fan of these trades because I think they represent smoke and mirrors return that we won't really be able to characterize as that for years to come.  They also involve this team HOPING that a rookie can produce more offensively than Gimenez (something I really doubt is true for Arias, Freeman, Brito or Martienz) without losing so much defense that the switch is a net negative.

One thing is for sure, IMO: These trades make us worse in 2025 than we were, salary savings notwithstanding.  The only way, to me, this all makes sense is IF we can extend Kwan and Bibee AND buy some quality starting pitching for 2025.  Otherwise, we have made the 2025 team weaker.  Things are so close in the AL Central that even incremental losses in competitiveness will be enough to keep us out of the playoffs even if EVERY player performs at the level they did in 2024.  

And we can't afford to waste years in our current competitive window.

So, FO, we are counting on you to pull several rabbits out of your hat in the next 2+ months.  You are OK'd to begin. :-)

It's Rule 5 day. But let's start by talking about the trades yesterday

 OK, I will make this as quick as I can.  

• The trade of Andres Gimenez made the 2025 Guardians a weaker team as the loss of his defense will cost this offensively-challenged team a lot of runs next year.

• We made this trade even though we have no proven prospect to take over second base.  We don't even know if guys like Brito or Martinez or Freeman (or even Arias) can even hit at the level that Gimenez did and we sure as heck know that they can't play defense as well.  Brito probably isn't even an average second baseman and never will be.

• This was clearly a salary dump, pure and simple.  Gimenez was overpaid, to be sure, and it was only getting worse.  But instead of trading a bad contract for Gimenez's bad contract we got a journeyman that Toronto didn't need or have a place for and a marginal outfield prospect

• We then traded that journeyman (Horwitz) to Pittsburgh for three pitchers.  One of them, Ortiz, pitched in the majors last year and did well, statistically. The other two are legitimate prospects being ranked 15th and 17th in the Pirates' system.    But you have to ask yourself this: how good could Ortiz and these two pitching prospects be if the Pirates were willing to trade the three of them for a journeyman who has not even established himself as a ML regular after 6 seasons in pro ball after playing 3 years in college?   Think of the haul we thought we got for Will Benson (Boyd and Hajjar) until we found out what non-prospects those two guys were.  Heck, they weren't even good enough to be solid organizational players.   I remember when we got Barfield for Kouzmanoff.  It looked like a steal at the time for Cleveland but we soon found out that Barfield wasn't really a major leaguer in talent.  The trade with Pittsburgh feels a lot like that.

• Trading for Mitchell makes protecting Petey Halpin and leaving Ryan Webb (and other 2021 draft picks) exposed to the Rule 5 this year look even more stupid, as now Mitchell and Halpin are redundant...and there is no way Halpin would have been picked in the Rule 5...but Webb will be.

• We will likely lose Webb and maybe others today for nothing when we had to trade to get a guy in the Pittsburgh trade today (Hartle) who is very similar.  For those keeping score, it DOES NOT offset the loss of Webb for essentially nothing because we traded for Hartle at the cost of our all-star second baseman. Ditto for Ortiz who is who Webb will be in 2026.   We traded Gimenez to get Ortiz when we would have been in the same place, at least in 2026 and maybe in 2025, if we had just protected Webb.  Again, one gain does not cancel out one loss because the loss includes trading away Gimenez.

• The loss of Bresnahan for Cobb last year is NOT offset by us obtaining Michael Kennedy in the Pittsburgh trade today.  Getting Kennedy at the expense of years of gold glove defense from Gimenez isn't even comparable to getting 4 starts from Cobb for Bresnahan.  Not even close.

In summary, the moves made on Tuesday make Cleveland a weaker team in 2025.  The players we got back were similar to prospects we had already so there was no tangible improvement in our farm system.  So nothing good came out of the trades today except that Dolan saved a lot of money.

And that, my friends, along with the cheap-ass move of cutting Guardsfest, which cost about the same over 3 years as one year of a rookie's salary and alienated a lot of fans and future fans who may not buy tickets to games now and in the future, is how you take a 92-69 team and make it weaker in a division that is getting stronger just because you have to save a buck and, in so doing, alienate some of the best fans in baseball!

Payroll Floor? I Didn't Know We Had One

Taking a little time out from my all Rule 5, all the time recent postings to talk about something that is, at the same time, one of my most favorite and least favorite subjects: mandated minimum total player payroll amount, otherwise known as a salary (or payroll) floor

Interesting report from BaseballTradeRumors today:

Athletics Risk MLBPA Grievance Without Further Payroll Increases - MLB Trade Rumors

Turns out, if you receive revenue sharing, you DO have a salary floor.  

For Oakland, since they will receive a full revenue share for the first time in 2025 ($70 million) they have to have a 2025 payroll of at least $105 million as their payroll have to be at least $150% of the amount of revenue sharing they receive.

Thus the unexpected signing of Severino and maybe some more FA signings in the future may be making more sense for a nomadic team with no intention of making a playoff run in 2025.

Not knowing how much revenue sharing the Guardians get it is possible that they may have a salary floor of $105 million, as well.  But their projected 2025 payroll now stands at an interesting $97 million level (after the Gimenez trade), which would be just over that $105 million threshold if, indeed, they receive a $70 million revenue share.

Payroll Floor

I have posted previously how much I hate this concept.  Oakland is the perfect example, signing quality free agents and paying them a lot of money just to meet the minimum team payroll required by the latest CBA.  They could extend players to up that payroll but I am pretty sure that players like Brent Rooker will see that coming and would ask for more money than Oakland would want to pay. 

Bottom line: the payroll floor, if it is applied the way the MLBPA wants it to be applied, makes teams that have no chance of being competitive spend their money on players just to pay those players more than they would likely get in a completely open market.

Instead of this I propose the following:

• create a payroll floor like has been proposed
• calculate the international signing pool amounts and draft budget amounts the way they are normally calculated
• If a team chooses to go under their payroll floor they must add 25% of that underage to their international signing pool, 25% to their draft budget, with the rest of the underage being split between other revenue sharing teams to be split evenly between their international and draft pools

So, instead of overpaying major leaguers teams that will not be competitive, simply spend where they should: on obtaining talent they can develop to be competitive in the future and be forced to give some of your revenue sharing dollars to other teams in your same situation.

Is this unfair to the larger market teams with good revenue streams?  Absolutely.  But at least we know teams are going in the right direction in terms of developing.  The additional dollars in draft pools offset the effect of NIL money, at least somewhat, and it gives the weaker teams more money to sign international free agents who are posted by their foreign teams at a young age.

2024 Rule 5 - Part 8 - It's December 10th - We'll Find Out Tomorrow, I Guess

 A few thoughts as we head into Rule 5 Day

• PREDICTION: This R5 draft is going to be a blood bath for the Guardians.  They will likely have 3 players drafted away from them in the ML portion.  I think 3 is solid but more than that could be possible if teams see relief prospects that they value.  Normally it is the Yankees who are hit hard but some of that comes from Yankees guys being taken early and it just snowballing.  That might happen to Cleveland this year.  It is pretty easy to predict that this will be the most damaging Rule 5 drafts ever for the Guardians. The minor league portion is a big question mark but I would think 2-3 would be a reasonable number and, given how flat our talent level is in our farm system, it may be guys you don't even suspect would be available in the minor league portion as we may simply run out of room to protect guys on the Columbus reserve list.

• IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER: The Guardians have been really, really good at protecting prospects who might be taken in the Rule 5.  Aside from losing Kevin Kelly, who is a prototypical middle relief guy, they haven't lost much in the recent past, with the last significant player lost being Anthony Santander, who was lost as an unlikely selection (injured, low A ball player in 2016).  Aside from minmizing their losses in the R5, they have also recently made some surprising and shrewd additions to their roster on the freeze day and those players (Cade Smith and Tim Herrin) have payed big dividends almost right away.  In the last 2 years they left other, high profile prospects available and those prospects were either not taken in the R5 or were returned to the Guardians. Yes, Oscar Gonzalez would have been picked in 2021 if there had been a R5 draft, but they did protect a number of guys that year who would likely have been picked.  In addition to minimizing Rule 5 losses, the Guardians have also made some recent quality R5 draft picks.  Trevor Stephan turned out to be a very astute pick. Deyvison De Los Santos, who is flirting now with being one of the top prospects in all of baseball, was their pick last year although they had to return him this past spring to keep Esteban Florial.  So, while their evaluation process for major league hitters may be in question, we should have some faith that they know what they are doing in protecting and picking in the Rule 5.  History has shown that!

• BAD ASSET MANAGEMENT - That being said, protecting Petey Halpin over Ryan Webb makes no sense. Halpin was not the profile of a ML R5 draft pick.  Webb was (see Mitch Spence the A%1 overall R5 pick from 2023).  Heck, continuing to protect Will Brennan, who is either too stubborn or too incapable of making changes that will up him from his current AAAA player status, instead of Aaron Davenport is almost as big a travesty.  There is a great deal of angst for me leaving exposed to the Rule 5 a number of high draft pick and/or high performing, 2021-drafted, polished college pitchers who likely can pitch in the majors in 2025.  Developing this many talented arms and leaving them dangling as Rule 5 fodder screams to me: POOR ASSET MANAGEMENT PLAN.  It is pretty likely that this poor planning will end up with them losing significant prospect(s) in the Rule 5. 

• GEORGE VALERA - Maybe I am wrong but I truly believe that he is Rule 5 eligible.  I doubt he gets selected as teams could have had him for free with no Rule 5 strings attached after the Guardians released him.  However, any minor leaguer on the reserve list of a team who is Rule 5 eligible based on service time can be drafted in the Rule 5.  Valera is not an exception.  If he was, more teams would try to use that loophole.  So, when he doesn't get selected, realize why that is the case.

More tonght as I explore Cleveland's history in the Rule 5 and then tomorrow morning as I detail the Rule 5 results and the meaning of those results as it applies to the Guardians.  Until then, keep your fingers crossed and hope Oakland, the White Sox and Colorado have full 40 man rosters by tomorrow morning.