2026 Draft - Part 1 - Early Season Impressions

 OK, it's time to start thinking about the draft.  This year I plan to organize my thoughts by highlighting guys I think will be available at each of the Guardians draft slots.

Let's first talk about the dates.  The first night of the draft will be July 11th and will include all picks (38) before the second round.  The Guardians will pick twice, at #19 (regular 1st round pick) and #29 (Comp Round A pick). The second day of the draft (July 12th) will be rounds 2-10, the rounds that have bonus slot values above the minimum.  These rounds, along with round 1, determine how much money teams likely will have to spend to offer overslot bonuses on 3rd day picks. The 3rd day of the draft, (July 13th) will include rounds 11-20, similar to what 2024 included but different than 2025, which was only a 2 day draft.  Round 11 becomes a key moment in the draft as many teams will know how much money they have left to spend, what stud prospects are still available and what it will cost to sign them, if they want to be signed.  This was not the case 

From the Guardians perspective (no pun intended) the draft looks pretty open.  There seems to be a lot of strength at the very top, say the top 5 picks will have superstar potential and then, after that, it looks like it could be teams liking who they like.  By that I mean that this year's rankings may go out the window at draft time with a lot of lower ranked players being selected higher than normal.  While that, of course, happens every year, I think this year will be extreme with maybe only 15 top 38 ranked players being selected on day 1, with the other 23 selections being ranked anywhere from 10 to 40 places below where they are selected.  

So, what do I think the Guardians should do? In 2021 the Guardians selected mainly college pitchers. Whether that was by design or just how the draft worked I, that I don't know. Position players they selected (Koxx and Fox) and high school pitchers (Ventimiglia) have not done well.  Of the 18 college pitchers they selected, 15 of them are still in our system, most at AAA and AA.  Most probably won't make the majors or at least won't have long major league careers but the point is not that.  It is that the Guardians did a great job of drafting and developing the college pitchers they selected, starting with Williams and Bibee and maybe, eventually, including Aleman and even, eventually, Aleman, Davenport )inured now), Denholm, Webb, Dion and maybe Abney and other middle relievers. 

The 2021 draft worked so well to infuse quality pitching prospects into their system and the system seems to be thin in terms of pitching prospects, I think this year the Guardians should have another college pitcher draft.  They might have done this last year but essentially every college pitcher that was on their radar for the first 4 rounds was gone before they selected in that round.  They would have had to overdraft college pitchers with middling stuff and chose to go a different direction, over drafting questionable college posiition players and HS pitchers early, leading to my grade of C- for their draft.

They need to correct that this time around, as their minor league system is short on pitching talent/depth. This might require some overdrafting and going for more solid prospects rather than brass ring guys.  However, with this approach, I think they stand a better chances of getting the players they put the most scouting hours into.

So let's dive in, looking at round 1 today, as a bonus, give my first mention of a potential 3rd day pick..

Round 1 (slot 19) - Hunter Dietz. LHP, Arkansas

Right now Dietz is rated 35th by MLP Pipeline, 25th by ESPN and 85th by Perfect Game. He is a classic Friday night starter at a good college, with good stuff and projectability. I see him as a Bieber-type of pitcher in the right organization.  He does have an injury history and hasn't thrown much before this year so I don't think he will jump high enough in teams rating to be gone by pick 19, even if he continues to pitch well the rest of this season.  His fastball sat 95 MPH when I saw him this spring and his breaking stuff looked sharp.  

Round 1 CB-A (slot #29) - RHP Tegan Kuhns

This is where it gets dicey as teams may see the value of Kuhns, a draft-eligible sophomore, based on his improvement this year.  He has a history of control problems but, so far this year, Kuhns, currently ranked 43 by MLB Pipeline, 24th by Perfect Game and 77th by ESPN, has only walked 10 and struck out 64 in 51 innings.  I think the combination of leverage from his sophomore status and lingering questions about his control might make him available at that spot.

My backups, should Kuhns be taken, would be LHP Cole Carlon, or LHP Shane Sdao, although I think Sdao is likely to be available in the 3rd or even 4th round, given how his season is going.

SUMMARY - These two pitchers would fill a need within the organization as far as quality college arms who can come fast.  Neither are sexy or the type of brass ring picks that fans like.  However, after looking at last year's draft, it is clear to me that we should aim low and heavily scout guys we are comfortable will be there and I think these two guys will be.

Third Day Pick Possibility - Mark Quatrani C Notre Dame

As a preamble, I identified Boston Smith, a catcher from Dayton, as a potential 3rd day pick for the Guardians last year and Washington actually selected him on the second day (6th round) and then traded him this winter to Tampa Bay.  So, I have at least a little history of success in identifying hidden gems among senior college catchers.

I have seen Quatrani twice this spring. He is a senior transfer from Cornell and Notre Dame's primary catcher.  He is currently hitting .343 with 11 HR 15 BB and 30 K in 134 AB with his swing and miss being exposed by hard stuff inside.  However, I saw him hit a 460 foot homerun vs North Caroline and all that is enough for me to make him my 11th or 12th round picks.  I think he stands a good chance to be significantly better than Boston Smith (a 6th orund pick in 2025) and Bennett Thompson (our 13th round pick in 2024).  The Guardians put a lot of emphasis on good game calling and catching skills in their 3rd day college catchers as organizational catchers appear to be crucial to them in developing their pitching prospects.  Still, you get a catcher who can hit AND hit for power who will be available on day 3, you should jump on him as your 2026 3rd day college catcher.

So, this is my first foray into the 2026 draft as it applies to the Guardians.  Over the next three months I will be posting other articles about the draft.