Saturday Thoughts: MORONIC TRADE!!!

 This morning the Guardians announced that they traded for two-time GG winning catcher Patrick Bailey.

This will have to go down, on the surface, as one of the DUMBEST trades in Guardians history.

The background is this:

1. The Guardians have said repeatedly how valuable Austin Hedges is to this team.  They signed him for $4 million this off-season, a large financial investment for a resource-limited team.  

2. They have THREE catchers on the their ML roster of which Hedges has value but Naylor is a weak ML backup at this point and Fry is, as a catcher, somewhere on the spectrum between emergency only catcher and starts once in a blue moon catcher.  Hedges is having a career offensive year but Naylor has been terrible on offense.

3. In the minors we have Cooper Ingle who the FO says is not ready defensively but looks like a future all-star offensively, They spent a high draft pick on overdrafting Ingle hoping they could turn him into a ML catcher and more than just a slap hitter.  I have watched him for years and right now I think he is somewhere between Fry and Naylor defensively and would be the best offensive catcher in on the team, by far, if they call him up now.

4. Behind Ingle the Guardians have Cody Huff (AAA), a good ML backup-type who can also play a little 1B and Jacob Cozart (AA), another drafted colloverege, defense-first catcher who has yet to hit much in the low minors.

In summary, the Guardians were set with serviceable bodies all the way down to AA.  Not exactly a position of need.

The trade:

The Guardians received Patrick Bailey, a defense-first (aforementioned two time GG catcher) , switch hittng catcher who is hitting .146 this year.

The Guardians traded 

1. Matt Wilkinson, a soft-tossing and seemingly pudgy LHP who was dominating at AA.  In truth, the only way Wilkinson could be a #3 starter in the majors is if he does a Messick and adds 4-5 mph on his fastball and, since he hasn't made any progress in that regard in 2+ years in the organization, I doubt if he can.  That being said, his current arsenal and competitiveness makes his floor AAAA and his likely outcome as a swingman or #5 SP.  

2. A first round pick (#29 overall) in the upcoming draft.

ANALYSIS

This is likely one of the dumbest (and there have been quite a few) trades this FO has made in the last 10 years.  Here are the reasons:

1. Bailey helps our defense but catching was not exactly a black hole on defense in Cleveland or our minor league system.

2. The trade cost us A FIRST ROUND PICK.  This was the highest possible pick that could be traded. It should be noted that trading this pick saved cheapass Dolan likely $3.2+ million doesn't have to spend on a draft pick.  It also seriously damages our flexibility in trying to sign draft picks for overslot value in the upcoming draft.  This is why teams should not be allowed to trade draft picks.

3. This trade does not help our anemic offense at all.  Bailey is hitting .146 in 2026 with a career OPS of .611.  

4. Basically this trade kills any trade value Bo Naylor has.  Not that he has much, but this will prompt conversations with other GMs that go like "Hey, I can take Naylor off your hands for a bag of balls".

5. These leaves no place for Ingle.  Obviously the Guardians value defense at catcher over offense but Ingle can hit.  You COULD say that this makes Ingle an intriguing trade chip but if the GUARDIANS are saying OUT LOUD that Ingle is a long way from being a ML defensive catcher, it is pretty obvious we would be selling low on him right now. So...

6. Bailey catches around 120 games a year.  This leaves very little time for Hedges to impact the game so while we gain on Bailey's defense we lose on Hedges' ability to impact our team.

7. It is not a secret that I waited until point #7 to mention the other piece to the trade, Matt Wilkinson.    Already stated my opinion on Tugboat above and I would have been fine with it being a Wilkinson/Alfonsin Rosario package as the potential is there.  The loss of Wilkinson does not move the needle for me on this trade but his current value and future projection is not chopped liver.  He is a good prospect if not a top 30 prospect for the Guardians. We can spit on his ability based on peripherals but you CANNOT spit on his results and guys with results, like Messick, always have the chance to be coached up.  Guys like Oscar Gonzalez and Anthony Gose, who have inherent skills, cannot always be coached up to have performance.

8. Finally, and I preface this as a possible red herring, the Guardians traded away the chance to spend MILLIONS of dollars to sign international prospects in January and now have traded away the chance to spend over $3 million to sign the #29 pick in the upcoming draft.  So, it could be intuited that the Guardians would rather NOT spend money on signing prospects.  This is why teams should NOT be able to trade prospects before the 11th round so owners can't find creative ways to avoid investing in their team.

So, there it is. One of the least impactful, cheapass, dumbass trades in recent memory by the Guardians.  This trade will do very little to help the Guardians get to or advance n the playoffs now or in the future and it has already damaged the long-term future of the team with loss of draft picks and blocking prospects in the minors.