To no one's surprise, or at least it SHOULD be to no one's surprise, after trading successful minor league reliever Corey Burns, the Indians have lost Josh Judy on waivers...to the Reds. All this for Aaron Freakin' Cunningham.
Judy IS a top 20 Indians' prospect. (NOTE: Something I read on an Indians forum was that Rafael Perez topped out as the #11 prospect for the Tribe right after his first ML September experience, Judy has almost as high a rating after his: makes you think about the real worth of Josh Judy, doesn't it?) (NOTE: Baseball America had him as the #23 Indians' prospect and Cory Burns as their top RHRP not making the top 30 in their upcoming list, and I had Judy ranked as #17 and most other lists published so far only went to 15 or 16 and did not mention Judy.) Judy has not failed meaning he does not hold the AAAA tag that Cunningham does. Judy was primed to help in the big leagues in 2012. You don't lose guys on waivers, not if you are the current version (major and minor leagues) of the Cleveland Indians. You just don't
Cunninham, is a AAAA player, someone who can do well in AAA but not the majors. His AAA stats are meaningless since they came last year in his 4th year at that level. He is a dime a dozen guy you can sign as a minor league free agent or pick up as DFA (see Jai Miller for example). You don't have to trade for him.
Judy is an Indians' top 20 prospect. We lost him and got NOTHING back for him. NOTHING and we lost Cory Burns, too. No one should have a problem losing Judy and Burns but I do have a very big issue with losing both of them as a result of trading for a AAAA guy like Cunningham. You can't blow off losing Judy and Burns just because they aren't all-stars. You have to get value for them and we got squat in value. That is unacceptable..
We left outfielders Thomas Neal, Nick Weglarz, Ezequiel Carrera and Shelly Duncan on the roster, any of whom could have been DFA'd instead of Josh Judy and would have been less of a loss. In fact other pitchers like Corey Kluber, Frank Herrmann or Danny Salazar could have beeen DFA'd and none would have been as big a loss as Josh Judy..
We gave up the farm for Jimenez and, instead of continuing to build this team, we continue to tear down the future of this team without improving it!
Chris Antonneti has botched his time as GM. His Jimenez trade was questionable at the time, giving up 3 of our top 10 pitching prospects without the team to back Jimenez up. His moves since then have been pathetic and misguided. You don't trade for Cunningham if you are negotiating with Beltran and Cameron and, in fact, given his lack of ability, you don't TRADE for Cunningham at all. You wait for him to be DFA'd this spring and pick him up on waivers. You don't add salary in Lowe if you aren't going to do anything else.
Take away the 30-15 start last year and the 2010 Indians = 2011 Indians in record. And we have this kind of waste of talent with 5 of our best pitching prospects leaving the organization without an increase in talent anywhere close to enough to be competitive in the AL Central. That is just pathetic. That is the KC Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros all rolled into one.
Pathetic beyond words and very, very aggravating!
Friday, December 23, 2011
Friday, December 16, 2011
Now I have to question the intelligence of Chris Antonetti
Well, that didn't take long! Chris Antonetti's intelligence is officially in question. He just traded for a AAAA outfielder who is, BTW, out of options meaning he has to remain on the team all year. This trade definitely cost the Indians one viable relief prospect and is likely to cost him a second one.
Aaron Cunningham is the outfielder acquired and here are his stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cunniaa01.shtml
He hit .178 last year. He is a career .231 hitter in the majors. He has 270 games in AAA and has been with 4 organizations. That is almost the exact definition of a AAAA player. He is MUCH worse for this team than Shelly Duncan, with whom he would be competing for playing time. He has no speed, no power, doesn't walk much, is not a good defender and is mostly a left fielder in the majors and the minors. If I read the numbers right, he is out of options meaning that we have to pass him through waivers to even get him to the minors and the icing on the cake is, if I understand this correctly, he also becomes a 6-year minor league free agent if we ever put him on and he clears waivers, meaning he can walk without us getting anything. So, unless we keep him in the majors for the rest of his career, which is unlikely based on his stats and history, we will probably lose him for nothing.
Now, here is what we lost:
We traded Cory Burns, a possible middle reliever here as early as this year and had to DFA Josh Judy, a guy who was likely to make this team this year as an inexpensive middle reliever with good upside and who can now be picked up on waivers. At the same time we kept Shelly Duncan on this roster and didn't DFA Thomas Neal who is redundant with Cunningham, was hurt most of last year, is a questionable prospect now and who would most likely have passed through waivers more easily.than Judy.
You have to ask yourself these questions about this trade:
1. Why did Cunningham cost more in prospects than Derek Lowe did?
2. Why did we trade for a fringe guy who is redundant to what we already have in the majors and minors, is not likely to make our team out of spring training, is out of options and can walk as a 6-year minor league free agent if he clears waivers, which he will have to do if we try to send him to the minors?
3. Why dump Josh Judy, a viable relief prospect, from your roster instead of Thomas Neal, who is redundant to Cunningham?
4. What does Cunningham add, given his lack of skill and the fact that he will actually compete with Shelly Duncan for playing time?
5. Could the Indians have really rated Burns and Judy so low that they would be willing to make a trade for a AAAA outifielder knowing that it is likely to cost them BOTH of these pitching prospects?
6. Why give away your two best pitching prospects in Pomeranz and White to get 2 1/2 years of Ubaldo Jimenez if this is the type of player you will back him up with? So far it appears we have added Lowe, Cunningham/ Felix Pie and Jose Lopez this winter and re-signed Sizemore.
This is the type of move that really makes me over-the-top angry. What elevates that to an even higher level is the absolutely ridiculous rationalizations going on on various Indians' forums as pro-FO forumites try to spin an absolutely stupid trade by dissing the guys we give up and totally ignoring the circumstances that make this trade stupidly ridiculous from a logistical level (competition with Duncan, lack of definable skill that has Cunningham helping us next year, the fact that Cunningham is out of options and is probably a guy who could walk as a 6-year minor league free agent).
Wake up, Cleveland and smell the coffee. This move was stupid, we lost viable prospects for a AAAA outfielder with not one average tool and really puts into question Antonetti's intelligence.
12/19: Now I read on MLB Trade Rumors that the Indians are in serious negotiations with outfielder Mike Cameron. How stupid would the above trade look if we got Cameron and, as a result, Cunningham became redundant and we lost him next spring and we lost Judy in addition to already losing Burns!?!?!?!
12/19 (2) : Cameron to sign with Washington on a minor league deal. Interesting. We'll see what else the Indians do.
Aaron Cunningham is the outfielder acquired and here are his stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cunniaa01.shtml
He hit .178 last year. He is a career .231 hitter in the majors. He has 270 games in AAA and has been with 4 organizations. That is almost the exact definition of a AAAA player. He is MUCH worse for this team than Shelly Duncan, with whom he would be competing for playing time. He has no speed, no power, doesn't walk much, is not a good defender and is mostly a left fielder in the majors and the minors. If I read the numbers right, he is out of options meaning that we have to pass him through waivers to even get him to the minors and the icing on the cake is, if I understand this correctly, he also becomes a 6-year minor league free agent if we ever put him on and he clears waivers, meaning he can walk without us getting anything. So, unless we keep him in the majors for the rest of his career, which is unlikely based on his stats and history, we will probably lose him for nothing.
Now, here is what we lost:
We traded Cory Burns, a possible middle reliever here as early as this year and had to DFA Josh Judy, a guy who was likely to make this team this year as an inexpensive middle reliever with good upside and who can now be picked up on waivers. At the same time we kept Shelly Duncan on this roster and didn't DFA Thomas Neal who is redundant with Cunningham, was hurt most of last year, is a questionable prospect now and who would most likely have passed through waivers more easily.than Judy.
You have to ask yourself these questions about this trade:
1. Why did Cunningham cost more in prospects than Derek Lowe did?
2. Why did we trade for a fringe guy who is redundant to what we already have in the majors and minors, is not likely to make our team out of spring training, is out of options and can walk as a 6-year minor league free agent if he clears waivers, which he will have to do if we try to send him to the minors?
3. Why dump Josh Judy, a viable relief prospect, from your roster instead of Thomas Neal, who is redundant to Cunningham?
4. What does Cunningham add, given his lack of skill and the fact that he will actually compete with Shelly Duncan for playing time?
5. Could the Indians have really rated Burns and Judy so low that they would be willing to make a trade for a AAAA outifielder knowing that it is likely to cost them BOTH of these pitching prospects?
6. Why give away your two best pitching prospects in Pomeranz and White to get 2 1/2 years of Ubaldo Jimenez if this is the type of player you will back him up with? So far it appears we have added Lowe, Cunningham/ Felix Pie and Jose Lopez this winter and re-signed Sizemore.
This is the type of move that really makes me over-the-top angry. What elevates that to an even higher level is the absolutely ridiculous rationalizations going on on various Indians' forums as pro-FO forumites try to spin an absolutely stupid trade by dissing the guys we give up and totally ignoring the circumstances that make this trade stupidly ridiculous from a logistical level (competition with Duncan, lack of definable skill that has Cunningham helping us next year, the fact that Cunningham is out of options and is probably a guy who could walk as a 6-year minor league free agent).
Wake up, Cleveland and smell the coffee. This move was stupid, we lost viable prospects for a AAAA outfielder with not one average tool and really puts into question Antonetti's intelligence.
12/19: Now I read on MLB Trade Rumors that the Indians are in serious negotiations with outfielder Mike Cameron. How stupid would the above trade look if we got Cameron and, as a result, Cunningham became redundant and we lost him next spring and we lost Judy in addition to already losing Burns!?!?!?!
12/19 (2) : Cameron to sign with Washington on a minor league deal. Interesting. We'll see what else the Indians do.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Jose Lopez? Really?
Just a quick note that MLB Trade Rumors has information indicating the Indians are in serious negotiations with Jose Lopez. That's great. We need a good minor leaguer to mentor Juan Diaz and other minor league SS.
But I am not sure that is what we are talking about here. I think they are talking about signing Lopez for the MAJOR LEAGUE team. Yes, that Jose Lopez, utility infielder, owner of a .216 BA and a .245 OBP last year. We have Jason Donald. He's younger, cheaper and has more upside than Lopez. He IS our utility infielder. We don't need Lopez like we didn't need Casey Blake, although I prefer the latter more.
We do not need Jose Lopez just like we didn't need Ricky Gutierrez, Roberto Hernabndez, David Dellucci or the host of other fringe major leaguers we have signed over the last few years to take ABs and IPs away from younger guys who still have upside.
Bringing in Lopez spits in the face of the Indians trading Alex White, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride for Ubaldo Jimenez.
Indians: Stop driving your Mercedes up to Dollar General to do the rest of your shopping! If they sign Lopez to anything more than a minor league deal where he becomes AAA depth for the Indians, they have lost their minds.
But I am not sure that is what we are talking about here. I think they are talking about signing Lopez for the MAJOR LEAGUE team. Yes, that Jose Lopez, utility infielder, owner of a .216 BA and a .245 OBP last year. We have Jason Donald. He's younger, cheaper and has more upside than Lopez. He IS our utility infielder. We don't need Lopez like we didn't need Casey Blake, although I prefer the latter more.
We do not need Jose Lopez just like we didn't need Ricky Gutierrez, Roberto Hernabndez, David Dellucci or the host of other fringe major leaguers we have signed over the last few years to take ABs and IPs away from younger guys who still have upside.
Bringing in Lopez spits in the face of the Indians trading Alex White, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride for Ubaldo Jimenez.
Indians: Stop driving your Mercedes up to Dollar General to do the rest of your shopping! If they sign Lopez to anything more than a minor league deal where he becomes AAA depth for the Indians, they have lost their minds.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Albert Pujols deal: What it means to baseball and how Cleveland should view it.
Ok, so I am a lifelong Indians' fan. But, for the last 27 years of my life I have lived in St. Louis. So I have grown to like the Cardinals. Two things about Cardinals' fans: they love their baseball team and they love the statues of their baseball heroes. We have Bob Feller. They have Buck, Brock, Musial, The Wizard, the Dizz, Sisler, Red, Papa Bell, Hornsby, etc. We have one, they have a whole plaza of them outside their stadium. Believe me, it adds to the history and history brings fans, even in the lean years.
So, why am I mentioning this on a blog that is supposed to be all Indians all the time? Because, the Albert Pujols deal has just maybe set a standard for deals for megastars who are destined for the Hall of Fame. As I understand it, in his deal with the Angels, Pujols has a 10 year contract to be a consultant for the Angels after his playing days are over. If we assume his playing days will be over right after or soon after his current contract ends, then he will be an Angels' consultant for some, most or all of his 5 post-retirement years before he is eligible to be elected into the Hall of Fame.
Now, remember, after the Wade Boggs fiasco, where Tampa Bay bought their first and only Hall of Famer with a lame contract clause at the end of Boggs' career, the HOF took over selecting whose hat an inductee will wear. That is, which team he will represent in the Hall of Fame. Now, if it is not possible for the HOF to decide because a player has played for multiple teams (see Robbie Alomar), the HOF will take into consideration what the player wants. So, Pujols will play 10 years for the Angels (he has a no-trade clause), 11 years for the Cardinals and maybe a year or two for someone else. Thus the decision will probably be Pujols'. To the dismay of the fans in St. Louis my guess is that he will pick the Angels who, at that time, he will STILL be working for.
Plus, Moreno bought ALL the Albert Pujols records with this contract. Albert currently has the following rankings in all-time categories:
HR: 445 (record: 762)
Hits: 2073 (4256)
RBIs: 1329 (2297)
Doubles: 455 (792)
Walks: 975 (2558)
Runs: 1329 (2295)
Now, he probably won't break all of these records but, in the AL, with the DH, he could come closer than he would in the NL, especially in HRs and RBIs. But records or not, you will have the 500, 600 and maybe 700 HR chase, the race to 3000 hits, the all-time RBI and runs scored chase, Yes, in the latter years of the contract the LA media will be saying what the NY media is now saying about ARod's contract: that it is an albatross around the Angels' collective necks.
But Arte Moreno bought four, possibly five good years of Albert Pujols production, all of his record chasing and a HOF plaque. That's a pretty good deal, at least to me.
Meanwhile, for the Cardinals, they have few, if any, guys on their roster who have anything more than an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. Yeah, Molina, maybe. Berkman, Holliday, Carpenter, Wainwright...not so much and, even if they do get it, it may not be as Cardinals. And the Indians, looking at their recent history, have even less of a chance of anyone and especially anyone on their current roster being HOF material.
It could be a while before the Cardinals put up another statue on the plaza outside their ballpark. For the Indians, it may be even longer, maybe never! If the Indians want to avoid this drought they need to do what I have said for years and now it may be too late. They need to make amends with Thome and Vizquel. I doubt Manny ever gets in but Thome and Vizquel should be HOFers and, if they do, looking at the teams they played for and the numbers that put up, the two of them should go in as Indians. Statues are important. The Indians may have lost one when they traded Robbie Alomar, they may have lost two more when they lost Thome and Vizquel and didn't bring them back to finish their careers and, as silly as it sounds, they may have lost one by not keeping Julio Franco to be their 1B/DH instead of letting him go to Asia and other ML teams to play in his later years. Had they found a way to keep him, he would have most likely gotten 3000 hits which, for a guy who played SS half of his career, would have probably been enough.
As far as the future, if the Indians develop a guy who is HOF caliber (see Sabathia) the odds are great that they won't keep him long enough to have the HOF or the player think he should go in as an Indian and that he will get a contract that will cement him going in wearing another hat. So, Rapid Robert may be lonely for a long time on that plaza.
The Indians have an opportunity with Thome and Vizquel to get more statues to keep Feller company. Why does that opportunity exist? It's here because we kept those players long enough for them to be considered Indians. We were winning AND we spent to keep them here and they wanted to stay because we spent and we were winning. We created a case that won't be there with CC. We created a perfect storm that may not happen again in Cleveland. We had HOF caliber guys for most of the prime of their careers AND those players ended up playing for multiple teams each for only a few years after leaving Cleveland. They were and will be remembered predominantly as Cleveland Indians. .
Let's hope the Indians didn't blow it with Thome and Vizquel because Pujols contract may have changed EVERYTHING in regards to who keeps the history with respect to a HOFer. Now, Wade Boggs situation notwithstanding, owners may see that, by sucking up the bad years at the end of a contract, they can buy a HOF plaque and some needed history and tradition at the same time they are getting a player. Now THAT is an investment in the future. The Indians may never, or at least not for a long time, have another HOF player as a result. Not unless the HOF and Thome and/or Vizquel see fit to go in as Indians if they are voted in by the HOF voters. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
So, why am I mentioning this on a blog that is supposed to be all Indians all the time? Because, the Albert Pujols deal has just maybe set a standard for deals for megastars who are destined for the Hall of Fame. As I understand it, in his deal with the Angels, Pujols has a 10 year contract to be a consultant for the Angels after his playing days are over. If we assume his playing days will be over right after or soon after his current contract ends, then he will be an Angels' consultant for some, most or all of his 5 post-retirement years before he is eligible to be elected into the Hall of Fame.
Now, remember, after the Wade Boggs fiasco, where Tampa Bay bought their first and only Hall of Famer with a lame contract clause at the end of Boggs' career, the HOF took over selecting whose hat an inductee will wear. That is, which team he will represent in the Hall of Fame. Now, if it is not possible for the HOF to decide because a player has played for multiple teams (see Robbie Alomar), the HOF will take into consideration what the player wants. So, Pujols will play 10 years for the Angels (he has a no-trade clause), 11 years for the Cardinals and maybe a year or two for someone else. Thus the decision will probably be Pujols'. To the dismay of the fans in St. Louis my guess is that he will pick the Angels who, at that time, he will STILL be working for.
Plus, Moreno bought ALL the Albert Pujols records with this contract. Albert currently has the following rankings in all-time categories:
HR: 445 (record: 762)
Hits: 2073 (4256)
RBIs: 1329 (2297)
Doubles: 455 (792)
Walks: 975 (2558)
Runs: 1329 (2295)
Now, he probably won't break all of these records but, in the AL, with the DH, he could come closer than he would in the NL, especially in HRs and RBIs. But records or not, you will have the 500, 600 and maybe 700 HR chase, the race to 3000 hits, the all-time RBI and runs scored chase, Yes, in the latter years of the contract the LA media will be saying what the NY media is now saying about ARod's contract: that it is an albatross around the Angels' collective necks.
But Arte Moreno bought four, possibly five good years of Albert Pujols production, all of his record chasing and a HOF plaque. That's a pretty good deal, at least to me.
Meanwhile, for the Cardinals, they have few, if any, guys on their roster who have anything more than an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. Yeah, Molina, maybe. Berkman, Holliday, Carpenter, Wainwright...not so much and, even if they do get it, it may not be as Cardinals. And the Indians, looking at their recent history, have even less of a chance of anyone and especially anyone on their current roster being HOF material.
It could be a while before the Cardinals put up another statue on the plaza outside their ballpark. For the Indians, it may be even longer, maybe never! If the Indians want to avoid this drought they need to do what I have said for years and now it may be too late. They need to make amends with Thome and Vizquel. I doubt Manny ever gets in but Thome and Vizquel should be HOFers and, if they do, looking at the teams they played for and the numbers that put up, the two of them should go in as Indians. Statues are important. The Indians may have lost one when they traded Robbie Alomar, they may have lost two more when they lost Thome and Vizquel and didn't bring them back to finish their careers and, as silly as it sounds, they may have lost one by not keeping Julio Franco to be their 1B/DH instead of letting him go to Asia and other ML teams to play in his later years. Had they found a way to keep him, he would have most likely gotten 3000 hits which, for a guy who played SS half of his career, would have probably been enough.
As far as the future, if the Indians develop a guy who is HOF caliber (see Sabathia) the odds are great that they won't keep him long enough to have the HOF or the player think he should go in as an Indian and that he will get a contract that will cement him going in wearing another hat. So, Rapid Robert may be lonely for a long time on that plaza.
The Indians have an opportunity with Thome and Vizquel to get more statues to keep Feller company. Why does that opportunity exist? It's here because we kept those players long enough for them to be considered Indians. We were winning AND we spent to keep them here and they wanted to stay because we spent and we were winning. We created a case that won't be there with CC. We created a perfect storm that may not happen again in Cleveland. We had HOF caliber guys for most of the prime of their careers AND those players ended up playing for multiple teams each for only a few years after leaving Cleveland. They were and will be remembered predominantly as Cleveland Indians. .
Let's hope the Indians didn't blow it with Thome and Vizquel because Pujols contract may have changed EVERYTHING in regards to who keeps the history with respect to a HOFer. Now, Wade Boggs situation notwithstanding, owners may see that, by sucking up the bad years at the end of a contract, they can buy a HOF plaque and some needed history and tradition at the same time they are getting a player. Now THAT is an investment in the future. The Indians may never, or at least not for a long time, have another HOF player as a result. Not unless the HOF and Thome and/or Vizquel see fit to go in as Indians if they are voted in by the HOF voters. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Rule 5 - Comments on Indians' losses
OK, so I was 1 for 2.
Major league phase: The Indians lost none and gained none. This draft is probably the most intriguing and puzzling thing in professional baseball. Why certain players (like left Josh Smoker and Jordan Danks) don't get selected is interesting.
While the major league phase is intriguing the minor league phases are usually just blah. However, every once in a while they are head scratching. Teams have 38 guys they can protect from the minor league portions of this draft. That, plus the 40 on the major league roster, mean that they have 78 players they can protect...and that is just the players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft! It would seem that you could and should be able to protect every guy who even has a sniff of making the majors, right?
But every once in a while a guy gets picked in the minor league phase who is a head-scratcher. I don't know how often this happens as I am not deeply familiar with prospects from other teams but I remember in 2004 when the Indians left Keith Ramsey and Lee Gronkiewicz unprotected and they were taken. Gronk, who was a very successful minor league reliever, eventually made the majors with his drafting team, Toronto. Ramsey hasn't gotten there yet but was a very successful minor league starting pitcher when he was lost, and he was left-handed, to boot. So, I scratched my head when that happened.
Same today with Maty Popham. Really, after the trades and promotions we didn't have room for him on the AAA reserve list. Really? I have trouble believing that and Popham still has some helium in my opinion. He was not a huge prospect and would have come in at 57 on my top 100 list this winter. Still, not the kind of guy I like to lose in the MINOR league portion of the Rule 5.
Donnie Webb, on the other hand, is EXACTLY the kind of guy I would expect to lose. Organizational soldier who has some skills that some team might take a flyer on AND the kind of guy the Indians would leave off the AAA reserve list as he really has little major league upside.
I don't know enough about the other teams and whether any of their minor league phase losses were as good or better than Popham but I know Popham was a surprise to me...and probably an unnecessary loss. Not a big loss but, in Cleveland, any loss is a loss.
Major league phase: The Indians lost none and gained none. This draft is probably the most intriguing and puzzling thing in professional baseball. Why certain players (like left Josh Smoker and Jordan Danks) don't get selected is interesting.
While the major league phase is intriguing the minor league phases are usually just blah. However, every once in a while they are head scratching. Teams have 38 guys they can protect from the minor league portions of this draft. That, plus the 40 on the major league roster, mean that they have 78 players they can protect...and that is just the players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft! It would seem that you could and should be able to protect every guy who even has a sniff of making the majors, right?
But every once in a while a guy gets picked in the minor league phase who is a head-scratcher. I don't know how often this happens as I am not deeply familiar with prospects from other teams but I remember in 2004 when the Indians left Keith Ramsey and Lee Gronkiewicz unprotected and they were taken. Gronk, who was a very successful minor league reliever, eventually made the majors with his drafting team, Toronto. Ramsey hasn't gotten there yet but was a very successful minor league starting pitcher when he was lost, and he was left-handed, to boot. So, I scratched my head when that happened.
Same today with Maty Popham. Really, after the trades and promotions we didn't have room for him on the AAA reserve list. Really? I have trouble believing that and Popham still has some helium in my opinion. He was not a huge prospect and would have come in at 57 on my top 100 list this winter. Still, not the kind of guy I like to lose in the MINOR league portion of the Rule 5.
Donnie Webb, on the other hand, is EXACTLY the kind of guy I would expect to lose. Organizational soldier who has some skills that some team might take a flyer on AND the kind of guy the Indians would leave off the AAA reserve list as he really has little major league upside.
I don't know enough about the other teams and whether any of their minor league phase losses were as good or better than Popham but I know Popham was a surprise to me...and probably an unnecessary loss. Not a big loss but, in Cleveland, any loss is a loss.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Rule 5 Preview - The day before total headscratching!
OK, now that we are hours away from the Rule 5 draft, let’s talk generalities and specifics. From years of following this draft here is what I think you should expect tomorrow:
1. There will be at least 2-3 guys selected that are complete surprises.
2. There will be a bunch of guys NOT selected that all the experts were convinced would be.
2. There will be a bunch of guys NOT selected that all the experts were convinced would be.
3. There will be at least one trade where a team drafts a guy and trades him
4. There will be at least one guy drafted from the Indians in the ML phase.
5. There will be at least one AAAA player-in-waiting drafted, maybe from the Indians
6. No ‘expert’ top 10 list of Rule 5 draft targets will end up with all those players drafted.
We should all be aware at this point that NO ONE is an ‘expert’ on who will be picked in the Rule 5 draft. Predicting what is going on in the heads of 3 organizations is almost impossible, let alone predicting what is going on in the heads of 30 organizations, all of whom have their own feelings on the Rule 5, the holes in their rosters and their own feelings on the strengths and weaknesses in their organization and outside to fill those holes.
So, no one really knows what is going to happen.
Knowing all this, let’s talk about the Indians who have a chance to be picked. This is an update of my previous article Link before the 40 man rosters were finalized.
Elvis Araujo (LHSP/LOOGY) – This guy is a top 10 prospect for the Indians.(currently #5 on my list) Why would a team not take a chance on this guy of this prospect magnitude and gamble on hm functioning as a 25th man LOOGY this year?
Chances of getting picked: 60%
Chances of sticking in the majors all year: 30%
Rob Bryson (RHRP)
The Rule 5 is all very often about ‘what have you done for me lately’ and, lately, Bryson has been hurt or performed badly.
Rob Bryson (RHRP)
The Rule 5 is all very often about ‘what have you done for me lately’ and, lately, Bryson has been hurt or performed badly.
Chances of getting picked: 20%
Chances of sticking: 0%
Matt Langwell (Right-handed pitcher)
While Langwell may look attractive on paper if you are an Indians’ fan, but he has no real outstanding tool that would separate him from 5 guys in each organization who might, with work, become ML middle relievers next year or the year after. He looks like a fringe ML reliever at best now and those are NOT the middle relievers who usually get picked.
Chances of getting picked: 30%
Chances of sticking: 30%
T.J. McFarland (LHSP/LOOGY)
Following up on the ‘what have you done lately’ theme, McFarland is attractive. I have not been able to find his minor league splits on lefty vs lefty but, if they are good, he has a good chance to be selected. With a fastball that tops out at 88-90 (despite published reports to the contrary), he would have to be stashed as a LOOGY/mop-up guy for year.
Chances of being picked: 50%
Chances of sticking: 30%
Alexander Perez (RHSP)
I see him as a possibility to be picked. A team could stash him on their 60-dayy DL all year and then hold him until next year. However, it depends on how he is pitching lately and teams haven’t had much of a chance to scout him so it would all depend on his health (records have to be provided before the draft on guys not protected).
Chances of getting picked: 50%
Chances of sticking: 20%
Roberto Perez (Catcher)
Historically, backup catchers grow on trees. Teams normally want a veteran presence at that position, even low level teams who have no realistic chance to compete. Plus, Perez has enough holes in his game (particularly batting average) that he will most likely not be picked. However, if a team picks him it is likely he will perform at the level they predict and so they are more likely to keep him.
Chances of getting picked: 20%
Chances of sticking: 40%
Bryan Price (RHRP)
See Matt Langwell
Bryce Stowell (RHRP)
Stowell is THE prototkype for a Rule 5 selection. Guys who throw 100 mph are always given multiple chances. If the medical records are good (the wild card that none of us are privy to) he is likely to get picked. However, his control issues, not command, but control, mind you, make it unlikely he could perform this spring at a level that teams would be comfortable giving him a bullpen spot this season.
Chances of getting picked: 60%
Chances of sticking: 5%
Paolo Espino (RHRP/SP)
Espino gets no respect in this organization as a short righthander without an overwhelming fastball… but that does not mean he gets no respect outside of this organization. His fall numbers don’t scream “PICK ME”. However, he has a realistic chance of getting picked due to the versatility and resiliency in bouncing between relief and starting this year and his one start in the AAA playoffs on HUGE rest, meaning he probably wasn’t at his sharpest.
Chances of getting picked: 30%
Chances of sticking: 50%
Trevor Crowe (OF)
Teams may actually take a chance on Crowe who has some present value and some, but not a lot, of projectability. Every year it seems that one team takes a chance on a guy like this, a guy who is one step away from being a AAAA player.
Chances of being picked: 30%
Chances of sticking: 50%
The Rest
Remember, the Indians have about 38 guys they can protect from the minor league portion of the draft. Guys like Eric Berger, Steven Wright, Tim Fedroff, Bo Greenwell, Kyle Landis, Argenis Martinez, Beau Mills, Carlos Moncrief, Marty Popham, Francisco Jimenez,and Karoxen Sanchez will CLEARLY be protected on the AAA reserve list. Also, these guys have enough warts in their games, are too far away from the majors or have skills that are so mundane in both quality and to what is looked for in positions normally drafted in the Rule 5, that they are not likely at all to get picked in the ML portion or, if picked, not likely at all to stick with the team that drafted them, meaning that they are likely to remain with the Indians. .
However, as big as the AAA reserve list is, you can’t or don’t necessarily want to protect all your Rule 5-eligible guys on it and so some will be exposed to the minor league portions where guys who are selected don’t have to be returned to the Indians. Here is a list, without comment, of guys who the Indians might lose in the Rule 5 minor league phase. Not that they WILL lose anyone but, if they did, it is likely to be one or more of these guys.
Adam Abraham (3B/1B):
Delvi Cid (OF)
Joey Mahalic (RHP
Doug Pickens (C)
Jeremie Tice (1B)
Donnie Webb (OF)
To end this article the same way I ended the previous one:
(a) This is the hardest draft to predict
(b) I am right more than most who predict this stuff but wrong A LOT more than I am right. That is, I, along with everyone else that does is, am the antithesis of an ‘expert’ on what will happen in this or any Rule 5 draft.
(b) I am right more than most who predict this stuff but wrong A LOT more than I am right. That is, I, along with everyone else that does is, am the antithesis of an ‘expert’ on what will happen in this or any Rule 5 draft.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Why we need to keep Raffy Left and Sipp and other musings
OK, the winter meetings are about to start. Here are some more thoughts going into those meetings:
Save the Lefties!
There is talk the Indians will trade Rafael Perez or Tony Sipp for outfield help. Don't do it! There is a better than a 50/50 chance that our rotation will all be right-handed (Masterson, Carmona, Jimenez, Tomlin, Lowe). We are guaranteed, barring injury, from having 3 righties (Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano and either Joe Smith or Chen Lee) in the bullpen. Given that our rotation is likely to be all righty our bullpen should be lefty heavy, maybe 3 deep (Perez, Sipp and Hagadone). The 7th guy should be the best of Judy, Putnnam
Teams will load up on left-handed hitters against our rotation and we need to keep them off balance. Having 3 lefties, especially if we stretch Hagadone out to be a long man, would really help. Even if Huff takes a rotation spot (I would LOVE to see him do a Cliff Lee impersonation this year!) we still need 3 lefties.
Off-season tea leaf reading
For those of you who follow the Indians in the off-season, this one, in particular, will tell whether this ship has anyone at the helm. The Indians are at a crucial place in their history.
Save the Lefties!
There is talk the Indians will trade Rafael Perez or Tony Sipp for outfield help. Don't do it! There is a better than a 50/50 chance that our rotation will all be right-handed (Masterson, Carmona, Jimenez, Tomlin, Lowe). We are guaranteed, barring injury, from having 3 righties (Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano and either Joe Smith or Chen Lee) in the bullpen. Given that our rotation is likely to be all righty our bullpen should be lefty heavy, maybe 3 deep (Perez, Sipp and Hagadone). The 7th guy should be the best of Judy, Putnnam
Teams will load up on left-handed hitters against our rotation and we need to keep them off balance. Having 3 lefties, especially if we stretch Hagadone out to be a long man, would really help. Even if Huff takes a rotation spot (I would LOVE to see him do a Cliff Lee impersonation this year!) we still need 3 lefties.
Off-season tea leaf reading
For those of you who follow the Indians in the off-season, this one, in particular, will tell whether this ship has anyone at the helm. The Indians are at a crucial place in their history.
- They say they want to compete but are talking about having Jack Hannahan and Shelly Duncan being on this team and Michael Brantley starting. That makes little sense to me.
- They talk about wanting to use young players but, frankly, their best young players were traded last year for Ubaldo Jimenez. Lonnie Chisenhall was unimpressive at both AAA and the majors last year. He probably isn't ready.
- There is talk they are interested in Casey Blake. While I like Blake this is clearly bottom feeding to do an incremental upgrade over Jason Donald, Jack Hannahan and Shelly Duncan, as Blake is a guy who would, presumably, taking playing time from each of those. There is talk they are interested in Carolos Pena, Josh Willingham and Michael Cuddyer. All of those players are not difference makers. There is NO talk they are interested in Jose Reyes and Aramis Ramirez, the two free agents I think could help us win right now and at positions (3B and SS, with Cabrera moving to 2B and Kipnis to LF) that would help our offense and maybe even help our defense.. If you want to win now, you don't bottom feed. You go for it. Financial realities be damned. Trying to compete now with veterans AND be on a budget AND play young players to keep the cycle of winning going doesn't work. Shapiro tried it when he traded for Lawton, et al. It doesn't work.
- And, most disturbingly, they are talking about making a trade. You have already gutted most of your farm system with promotions, trades and the to-be-expected bad performances/injuries. I can see trading Joe Smith but there is no one else of value that is excess baggage on this team, not even the lefty relievers (see above). Plus, if you trade from strength you often weaken that position and make it into a weakness. In essence, you gain nothing.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Musings as we approach the winter meetings
Luis Valbuena for cash? Why? Yeah, he may have topped out but to get a guy like that on, essentially, a minor league deal, is a good move for Toronto and not a smart one for the Indians. Look, it can't hurt the Blue Jays but might help them and can't help the Indians but might hurt them. The definition of a bad move, albeit not a Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon move.
Mitch Talbot to Korea? How can you blame the guy? He obviously felt like his opportunties in the US in the future were limited. He was a fringe 5th starter now and, at best, a solid 5th starter. Let him make his money. His loss, while it hurts the bottom of the depth pool, is easily offset by signing a minor league free agent, if needed.
Why do other teams gobble up good minor league free agents and we bottom feed for what seems to be the umpteenth year in a row. Yeah, we brought in Duncan and Hannahan. But that was catching lightning in a bottle. You can always throw stuff against the wall and hope it sticks. But let's get in there earlier and get prime minor league FAs instead of waiting until they are all gone. Even with the Rule 5 draft looming, I still think it is worth the gamble to sign these guys now.
Glad to see Sarbaugh back, Still, I say, fire Acta, make Alomar Jr. the manager and make Sarbaugh the bench coach.
What about the winter meetings?
The rotation doesn't need any help.
The bullpen always needs help but I think we gamble on the guys we have.
The lineup needs help and I have already suggested ways to fix that.
Michael Brantley is a 4th outfielder. Shelly Duncan is a 25th man. This team needs more hitting. My requested moves of the off-season: bring in Jose Reyes, move Asdrubal Cabrera to 2nd and Jason Kipnis to LF and bring in Aramis Ramirez to play 3rd would probably only cost the Indians $120 million with Reyes costing $85 over 6 years and Ramirez costing $35 over 3 years. It is a bold move but I think, if we truly believe in Ubaldo Jimenez, they are the right moves. Yeah, Reyes' body may be giving out (maybe switching him to 2B down the road might make sense) and Ramirez may be on the downside of his career. It's a gamble. But, damn, we bought into Jimenez and gave away the top two prospects in our system for him. We need to maximize that investment by putting the right people around him and not going cheap as we have essentially, along with the changes brought by the new CBA, screwed the future up..
Our lineup would be:
Jose Reyes SS
Jason Kipnis LF
Shin Soo Choo RF
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B
Carlos Santana C
Travis Hafner DH
Matt LaPorta 1B
Grady Sizemore CF
Our bench would be:
Lou Marson C
Jason Donald IF
Jack Hannahan 3B/1B
Michael Brantley OF
You would have to trade Duncan (not a big deal) and send Chisenhall back to the minors (to work on the OF and 1B, to make him more valuable), but I could live with that.
If you buy into the window of opportunity being close to closing, how can you buy into going cheap this winter?
Mitch Talbot to Korea? How can you blame the guy? He obviously felt like his opportunties in the US in the future were limited. He was a fringe 5th starter now and, at best, a solid 5th starter. Let him make his money. His loss, while it hurts the bottom of the depth pool, is easily offset by signing a minor league free agent, if needed.
Why do other teams gobble up good minor league free agents and we bottom feed for what seems to be the umpteenth year in a row. Yeah, we brought in Duncan and Hannahan. But that was catching lightning in a bottle. You can always throw stuff against the wall and hope it sticks. But let's get in there earlier and get prime minor league FAs instead of waiting until they are all gone. Even with the Rule 5 draft looming, I still think it is worth the gamble to sign these guys now.
Glad to see Sarbaugh back, Still, I say, fire Acta, make Alomar Jr. the manager and make Sarbaugh the bench coach.
What about the winter meetings?
The rotation doesn't need any help.
The bullpen always needs help but I think we gamble on the guys we have.
The lineup needs help and I have already suggested ways to fix that.
Michael Brantley is a 4th outfielder. Shelly Duncan is a 25th man. This team needs more hitting. My requested moves of the off-season: bring in Jose Reyes, move Asdrubal Cabrera to 2nd and Jason Kipnis to LF and bring in Aramis Ramirez to play 3rd would probably only cost the Indians $120 million with Reyes costing $85 over 6 years and Ramirez costing $35 over 3 years. It is a bold move but I think, if we truly believe in Ubaldo Jimenez, they are the right moves. Yeah, Reyes' body may be giving out (maybe switching him to 2B down the road might make sense) and Ramirez may be on the downside of his career. It's a gamble. But, damn, we bought into Jimenez and gave away the top two prospects in our system for him. We need to maximize that investment by putting the right people around him and not going cheap as we have essentially, along with the changes brought by the new CBA, screwed the future up..
Our lineup would be:
Jose Reyes SS
Jason Kipnis LF
Shin Soo Choo RF
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B
Carlos Santana C
Travis Hafner DH
Matt LaPorta 1B
Grady Sizemore CF
Our bench would be:
Lou Marson C
Jason Donald IF
Jack Hannahan 3B/1B
Michael Brantley OF
You would have to trade Duncan (not a big deal) and send Chisenhall back to the minors (to work on the OF and 1B, to make him more valuable), but I could live with that.
If you buy into the window of opportunity being close to closing, how can you buy into going cheap this winter?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)