Friday, November 4, 2011

And now, a brief interlude...the Rule 5 draft - Who the Indians might lose

OK, time off from the free agent and trade stuff (I will be back to that this weekend).

Right now, though, let's look at who the Indians have who are Rule 5 eligible.

Remember, any guy under a team's control for 2012 who is not on the major league roster and who fits MLB's criteria for the Rule 5 draft : fourth Rule 5 draft after signing for players 19 and over at the time of signing and fifth Rule 5 drafts after signing for players signed when they are 18 or younger.  The only exception is guys signed AFTER the minor league season is over (Sept. 1st) who don't play that year.  Their Rule 5 clock starts the next season. 

So, with that, here is my list of Indians players and who might or is unlikely to be picked in the Rule 5 major league or minor league portions of the draft.  These players can be protected from the Rule 5 draft if they are placed on the 40 man roster by November 18th.  On that date teams also place players on AAA, AA and A level "reserve lists".  Those on the AAA reserve list (which can be up to 38 players) can only be selected in the ML portion of the Rule 5 draft.

If the following minor leaguers are left off the 40 man roster they are:

Decent Possibility To Be Picked, Decent Chance to Stick with Drafting Team                                                                                                                            
 Scott Barnes
Alexander Perez
Paulo Espino
Possibility To Be Picked, Possibility to Stick   

Elvis Arauuo
Rob Bryson
Roberto Perez
Juan Diaz
TJ McFarland
Possibility To Be Picked, Unlikely to Stick  

Hector Ambriz
Eric Berger
Matt Langwell
Danny Salazar
Bryce Stowell
Carlos Moncrief
Not Placed on ML roster But Protected on AAA Reserve List, Unlikely to be Picked   

Kyle Landis
Marty Popham
Adam Miller (If he re-signs and before the Rule 5 draft in December)
Argenis Martinez
Beau Mills
Karexon Sanchez
Tim Fedroff
Bo Greenwell
Chad Huffman
Jerad Head (see Adam Miller)

 Possibility to Be Picked in Minor League Phases
Adam Abraham
Juan Apodaca
Doug Pickens
Joey Mahalic
Steven Wright
Jeremie Tice
Delvi Cid
Ben Copeland
John Drennen
Donnie Webb
Oswel Munoz (if we even still have him)

I want to end by saying

(a) This is the hardest draft to predict
(b) I am right more than most who predict this stuff but wrong A LOT more than I am right.

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