The Streak

OK, this stretch has been wonderful if you are an Indians fan.  There is no doubt about it.   Plus, with Ohio State losing, the Browns being, well, the Browns and the uncertainty about the Cavs this year and next and Isaiah Thomas' hip, it's good to be a Cleveland sports fan who can focus on the Indians.

The numbers in this 18-0 run are ridiculous.  Every sports reporter/writer has gone over them ad infinitum.  

The most striking comment that I have heard over and over again is how there is a different offensive hero every night. 

The next most striking comment I have heard is really a question:   Are the Indians' "running too hot" right now.?  Basically, that means are the Indians playing too well right now and, like the Astros and Dodgers, will it time out so that they go into a slump come playoff time?

Let's address this all.

First, it is hard to win that many games in a row in the major leagues.   There are just too many variables, too many things that can derail you.   First, you face a hot pitcher.   Or you play a tight game that is decided by luck late.  Or your relief pitchers are tired from overuse and one or more of them have a hiccup.  Or a starting pitcher implodes.   And, finally, you have one day where your offense, as a unit, just goes cold at one time.

But, if you were going to have a streak like this, I think the bulk of this streak is more likely to happen in September than in any other month.   Why?

1. Teams out of contention (especially those who are rebuilding) start emptying their farm systems to give young players their first taste of the big leagues.  Likewise, teams who have locked up their playoff spot and playoff slot may be less inclined to go all out to win a September game as opposed to giving their players a rest. 

2. Your roster expands meaning you can give some of your players rest which keeps them fresh.  Do this appropriately, say one hitter a day, and your lineup doesn't suffer.

3. The expanded roster can, in theory, bolster your bullpen.   If done correctly, there would be no need to use your set up men (Smith and Shaw) in 5-0 games.  Instead you can use a guy just called up from the minors.  In a reasonable world that guy should be able to hold a 5 run lead, even if he stumbles.

Now, in order to make this happen the team, in this case the Indians, would have to get production from their younger players and from players who had struggled or been injured most of the year and guys on the bubble who really want to make that playoff roster.

So, you keep your key guys humming along as usual, give them a little more rest than usual because your bench is playing well.  And, all the time, you are playing against guys and teams who might still be finding their way in the big leagues and, in some cases, veterans who might not be as energized because they are on a losing team. 

I don't know the future.   Maybe having this streak now will doom the Indians in the playoffs as one talking head wondered about this morning.   However, I think just the opposite is true.   The Indians are winning while giving their players a rest.   I heard a stat today that Giovanny Urshela is the only guy who has played in every game of the streak.   That is huge.  Teams like the Red Sox and still playing meaningful games.  Ditto for all the teams in the wildcard hunt.  And the Astros are trying to find themselves.  Meanwhile the Indians are playing well without a lot of high leverage innings or at bats.  As I said previously, what this does is give Francona the toughest job in baseball: picking the Indians post-season roster(s).  So many guys are playing well, who do you pick for your bench and your bullpen?

Which brings me to my last point on this post.   I was half kidding when I said that the Indians, if they swept the Orioles, might not lose another game this regular season.  But, with some luck if the Angels and Mariners drop out of the wild card race and if the Twins clinch the last wildcard spot before their series with the Indians at the end of the month, the stars might just line up for the Indians to run the table.   Obviously all the caveats above for how you can lose a game still apply.  However, like has been the case in the current streak, all those anomalies that cause teams to lose random games don't seem to be impacting the Indians right now as the odds on favorite in all these games, the Indians, seem to be holding to those odds.

Hey, I don't know the future.  The Indians could lose to the rookie pitcher they will be facing tonight.   They could lose a random game any time.   However, most of the rest of the season is set up so that they have a real chance, with a little luck, to run the table and end with, dare I even say it out loud, a 37 game winning streak going into the playoffs.  Nah, can't happen.  Too many variables, right?  Hmmmm!