Probably the worst time to do a prospect list is at the end of the regular season. The results from the instructional league and winter ball are not in and post-season trading can really mess up a prospect list. But, it is late at night and I was having trouble sleeping so let's get to it.
1. Triston McKenzie
2. Francisco Mejia
- Let's stop here for a moment. Why would I do something stupid like rating McKenzie over Mejia? I really believe that Mejia may be a couple of years away. Up to this moment I really thought he could be ready to take over from Gomes and Perez by next April. Now I question that. After watching him swing the bat in September it tells me that best part of his game, offense, still needs a lot of polishing. McKenzie, on the other hand, hasn't run into the same types of challenges...yet.
3. Nolan Jones
4. Yandy Diaz
5. Yu-Cheng Chang
6. Willi Castro
7. Greg Allen
8. Will Benson
9. Bobby Bradley
10. Connor Capel
- Let's take another break. After Mejia and McKenzie, the prospects on this list are pretty iffy. In our entire system probably the ONLY true breakout prospect is Connor Capel. I had figured he was just at Lake County due to need and that the front office knew they had to throw someone to the wolves and didn't want it to be Will Benson. But, in the end, Capel did well. I know that the most deceiving stats in the minors, other than in the California League and the west coast Pacific Coast League teams, is in low A ball. How many times have I been fooled by a guy who tore up this league only to wither against better players in subsequent years. But I really think we have something in Capel, who played a lot of CF this year.
Aside from Capel, the other guys from 3-9 did OK but none of them really broke out, unless you want to say Jones did, but I don't buy that. He was a level below Capel and showed significant promise but he hasn't even played in full season A ball yet and didn't exactly dominate the NY-Penn league. I would have thought Diaz would have impressed me more but the stuff I have read about and seen from him this year tells me he may not have a very high ceiling. If most clubs didn't know this Diaz might be prime trade bait this winter. Instead, I think we keep him and hope that he develops power and learns to play multiple positions passably. Bradley, Chang and even Greg Allen have warts to their games. And, if Zimmer had not gotten hurt I think his hitting issues would have been really exposed in the playoffs like Naquin's were last year. Erik Gonzalez is just a spare part right now so, if he still retains prospect status he would probably be at #11 or #12 but he doesn't, at this point show enough to warrant being excited about him. Speaking of #11:
11. Ryan Merritt
12. Shane Bieber
13. Aaron Civale
These three guys scare me. I worry about Adam Plutko comps with all three meaning they may just be good minor league pitchers who can't translate their stuff to success in the majors. But we don't have a lot of high potential, too early to evaluate guys to stick here so there these three soft toss control guys are.
The scary thing is, after these guys, we had so many guys regress this year that it will be hard to even go up to 30 deep on true prospects. I mean, Brady Aiken walked 100 freakin' guys, more than he struck out this year. The only positive thing I can say about Aiken is, unlike the car on the Blues Brothers original movie, Aiken didn't totally disintegrate at the end of this season. Still, for anyone to call him anything but a bust a this point is looking at the world through really, really rose-colored glasses. The 2017 draft, so far, is not looking too sharp with top prospects as I don't see any of them cracking the top 20 at this point. There are lots of great relievers in this draft class and, from my experience, I see some of them being major league relievers if they stay healthy and keep progressing. For guys coming right out of college, some of the 2017 college relievers we selected this year put up SICK numbers, even in a short-season league. Still, until one or more of them proves they can be ML closer material, they don't crack a top 20 Indians' prospect list.
So, with our graduations from the minors this year, our trades and the regression of a number of our top prospects, this could end up being the weakest top 30 prospect list for the Indians in the last 10 years.
That is why I am going to stop at 13. I just can't stomach going on at this point. We'll get back to this list after the post-season but, right now, looking at Indians' minor league prospects is to depressing when the ML team is doing so well.
FYI, on this list Thomas Pannone would have been #5 and Samad Taylor might have snuck into the top 15 so here's hoping that Joe Smith gives us quality innings in the post-season and helps us to win the World Series. Other than that and I think the trade for Smith will be one that we rue for years to come. Given how our prospect ranks look pretty thin right now, I think you can see the value, albeit even trade value, Pannone and Taylor could bring right now.
No comments:
Post a Comment