Top 30 prospects

OK, we have had the winter meetings, the rule 5 draft and we are moving into the new year.   The Indians may still make some trades but let's look at the current state of the Indians' farm system.

Overall analysis:  Right now I would say the Indians rank roughly 22nd in baseball in terms of strength of farm system.   In football/basketball language they have one 5 star prospect, one 4 star prospect and a number of 3 star prospects.    They need to up the strength of their farm system as, in a few years, they may be looking at a complete rebuild unless some of their prospects can establish themselves between now and then.  This year and next year will be crucial for that to happen, both in terms of acquisition of prospects through the draft and amateur free agency and graduation of current prospects to the majors.  They have done a good job each year in managing their first year player draft budgets and have started to spend on marquis talents internationally but this needs to continue for them to be in 5 years where they are today.


Indians top 30 prospects

1. Francisco Mejia - C - If there is one prospect in the system that can be the face of the franchise in 5 years it is Mejia.   Yes, you need Lindor and Ramirez to still be here but Mejia has to reach his potential.  

2. Triston McKenzie -  RHP - The road to the majors for a HS pitching prospect is filled with a lot of uncertainty.   The Indians don't need McKenzie to pan out to be successful in 5 years.   However, if he is successful on a par to Carlos Carrasco, it will allow us to budget better to fill holes that always seem to exist on any team.  

3. Aaron Civale - RHP - This is where this list will start to differ from those you see elsewhere.  If we are to be competitive in 5 years you need bodies.   Civale is, to me, a better version of Josh Tomlin.   He should slot in as a quality #4 starter if he can just stay healthy and advance normally.   In 5 years he should be a solid, cost-effective, major league starter.   That is worth about $5-7 million a year we won't have to pay a free agent.   It will also save us from having to count on a question mark, similar to if we had to count on Ryan Merritt this year.   Yes, it may pan out but it is big risk.   Hey, I love Merritt, but in a winning organization he should be a long man/depth starter. 

4. Willi Castro - SS - For the Indians to succeed in the future Castro may have to play a big part.   He plays good defense and if he can hit he could be the next Jose Ramirez.   He is on this list at this point for his upside at a position that is hard to fill.  If he reaches his upside it will make it easier for us to make up for offensive deficits at other positions.  

5. Will Benson - OF - Benson would not even be as high as he is on my list if we had any other sure things.   However, as you will see below, most of our prospects who are close to the majors have some serious warts on them.   Benson needs to become a solid major leaguer in 5 years.   He needs to hit for more average and strike out less while keeping his other stats what they are now.   If he fails it will put a big strain on our budget in 5 years.  In an ideal farm system he would be #10 right now.  The fact that he is #5 shows you that we don't have a lot of depth in this system. 

6. Yu-Cheng Chang - SS - Prospect with warts Part I.  He plays a premium position but he needs to produce more offensively to be useful in the future.  Why?  Because my guess is that he will have to slide over to 3B.  If so, his current production, which is south of where Carlos Santana's is, will not be enough.   If he could stay at SS and be a plus defender he might get by with 20+ HRs and an OPS of .750.  However, if he has to play 3B that won't cut it.   We could get a $6 million, 2nd tier third baseman out of free agency for that...if we wanted to go bargain hunting.   Still, if Chang produces like that or if we go for that 2nd tier guy, it would be a deficit in our lineup in a spot where we need to be above average.

7. Shane Bieber - RHP - Look, no way is this guy supposed to be here.  However, looking at what we will need in 5 years we don't need to be looking for a 5th starter.  Bieber should be able to fill that roll if he stays healthy and on his current trajectory.  Just like Josh Tomlin, we need Bieber to be Mr. Reliable, the starter's version of Bryan Shaw, to save money.   We don't need to be paying $5 million for a 5th starter or rely on an untested rookie.  If Bieber can reach his potential, it is a hole we can cross off our need list.

8. Nolan Jones - 3B - I really like Jones.   He is likely to reach the majors.   The jury is still out if he will be an impact or even above average major leaguer, however.   If we are relying on Jones to suddenly have a bump in production for us to be in good shape in 5 years then we may have a problem.   Jones is the first of what I will call our gravy prospects.   If he pans out it has to be gravy on what would be a solid team without him.   If we COUNT on him improving his production to what we WANT it to be compared to what it is now, it is a recipe for disaster. 

9. Juan Hillman - LHP - This is where this list gets dicey.   Hillman has only modest results so far in the minors, showing no signs of dominance yet.   Although he will begin next season as a 20 year old, his body of work so far predicts a long development time with some uncertainty of how likely he is to reach anywhere close to his ceiling.   He is a true hit-or-miss prospect which, for someone who has been in the system as long as he has, is a little concerning.  Still, the potential is there.

10. Greg Allen - OF - Any farm system that would have Allen any higher than #10 is a farm system in trouble.   He has zero power and speed is his one plus tool.   He has a chance to be a good CFer and #9 hitter (his OB skills don't scream leadoff hitter) on a team that has 8 other guys who can hit the ball out of the park.  He projects well as a 4th outfielder if you have a manager who values defense and pinch-running over being able to come off the bench as a hitter to change a game.   

11. Bobby Bradley - 1B - Here is an interesting guy but one with warts.   His upside now looks like Carlos Santana.  Not bad but this is his upside.  The problem is that he isn't a switch hitter.   He is abysmal against lefties which makes him a platoon player.  As half of a cheap platoon he can be useful.  Think Jesus Aguilar last year with Milwaukee.  We have Yandy Diaz to go with Bradley so, down the road, they both should be in the majors together for a good period of time before free agency so maybe that would work.  Still, the signs are that Bradley will not be a well-rounded player, displaying only one plus tool, power.   

12. Quentin Holmes - OF - Holmes had a dismal start to his professional career.   Truth be told both of Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor, the two guys traded for Joe Smith, are better prospects to reach the majors than Holmes currently is.  Holmes has speed on his side but the Indians have mixed results, mostly on the negative side, about being able to develop a major league player out of a speed guy.  Right now his upside looks like Greg Allen IF he reaches it.   His development path may be slow enough that he arrives just outside of the 5 year window which is also problematic.

13. Ryan Merritt - LHP - Merritt represents the bird-in-the-hand prospect.   You know what you get from him, which is #5 starter/long man upside but he is likely to reach that potential pretty easily, making him a useful piece in the next 5 years.

14. Julian Merryweather = RHP - A step or two behind Merritt in development is Merryweather.   His upside is as a closer.  His intermediate upside is as a #4 starter on a good team.   He should make the majors and be a useful piece in the next 5 years.   He may, however, turn out to be the second coming of Shawn Armstrong, which would only be useful to a second division team, which we hope the Indians aren't. 

15. Elijah Morgan - RHP - You won't see Morgan on any other prospect lists.  He is a short, right handed relief pitcher, neither of which are in his favor.   He is not likely to close in the majors.  He was a low draft pick meaning his stuff didn't stand out to scouts.   However, his performance at Mahoning Valley was eye-popping and, having seen him in person and on TV (internet feed) I think his stuff will play all the way up to the majors.   If he stays healthy and focused he should have a quick path to the majors and should impact the Indians sometime in the next 5 years both in terms of effectiveness as a 6th/7th inning guy and as a CHEAP option for those roles.

16.   Brady Aiken - LHP - Here is where we start to go totally on hope.   Aiken's numbers at Lake County scream "Wild Thing".   He should have dominated that level but couldn't find the plate.   Even in his games where he limited opponents in runs he still walked a bunch.   I saw him in person and it seemed like he had no clue where the ball was going to go.   One of the bravest things I saw in baseball this year was the home plate umpire standing behind the catcher when Aiken was warming up.   Brave yet not a very smart man!   Aiken has a great pedigree but, at the moment, screams bust after only a couple of years.  Here's hoping for a great turnaround but this clearly shows what we will get on the second half of this top 30 this year: question mark after question mark.  The only difference after Aiken is that the upside of the next 14 guys is not as high as Aiken's, not even close.

17. Connor Capel - OF -  For those of you new to the minors, never...and I mean NEVER...look at power numbers at low A.   They are generally just mirages.   This is why Capel is down this list.   His hit tool is still in question and the power he displayed in 2017 is in question as it was all at low A.   The one plus in his favor is that HS guys from his 2016 draft class, even guys drafted above him, rarely had success at this level at low A ball last year. He make great statistical improvements from his first year to last year so there is hope for him in the future.  He has a good arm and has played CF so he is likely to be an above average OFer at any of the 3 OF positions. 

18. Shawn Morimando - LHP - To me, Morimando is the sleeper in this prospect list.  His stats at AAA were mediocre but he is the kind of guy, I think, who the light can turn on for very quickly.   I think he has a chance to be really impactful for the Indians in the next 5 years.  The only reason he is down this far on this list is that he performance up to this point does not scream success in the majors.  While I disagree with that, the proof is in the pudding and, so far, he has not been as brilliant in the minors as I would have liked to have to seen to give ANY chance of being successful in the majors for a first division team.

19. Mark Mathias - 2B - 2017 was a lost year for this guy but I think he will hit and play defense at an acceptable level and will hit for enough power to be useful as a major leaguer.   I look at him as having Jason Kipnis upside with almost 100% certainty, if healthy, to reach the majors in some capacity in the next 5 years.

20. George Valera - OF - You know that you are rapidly running out of guys who will impact the Indians ML team in the next 5 years when you start listing 16 year olds coming out of Latin America who haven't started playing professional baseball yet.  But that is where we are on this list. 

21. Aaron Bracho - SS - See Valera above.

22. Marco Gonzalez - SS - Like Valera and Bracho but at least Gonzalez has played a year professionally on our DSL team.

23. Tyler Freeman - SS - A 2016 draftee who performed well this year, Freeman is on this list here because he, like the three Latin guys above, have long-term upside.

24. Sean Brady - LHP = Here is a guy who might sneak up on us.   I think, when healthy, he is on a steady yet unspectacular route to the majors.   In order to be impactful in the majors he will need to add something to his arsenal.   I don't know what that is.  Maybe a few mph on his fastball from a move to the bullpen, maybe developing a superior off-speed pitch.   But he knows how to pitch and was successful in the hitter-heavy Arizona Fall League so don't count him out.   If everything clicks for him he could impact the Indians as early as this year and certainly by next year.

25. Ernie Clement - 2B - Like Mathias, he could get to the majors very quickly.   It is too early to tell how impactful he would be once he gets there but he certainly would get there and be established, if he makes it, easily within the next 5 years.

26. James Karinchak - LHP - Scouts apparently like his upside.   2018 will be a year, hopefully if he stays healthy, what we have in Karinchak.  

27. Rob Kaminsky - LHP - You can't forget about this guy.  Yeah, he was injured last year but he still has upside and, in this system, an ETA in the next 5 years is a plus.   Kaminsky, if healthy, should impact this team for most of the next 5 years, making him a veteran at the end of that period.   IF is the big, important, keyword.   Time will tell if he even makes it out of spring training without being traded or released.  However, you can't knock his performance when healthy as an indicator that he likely could pitch in the majors.

28. Eric Haase - C - Normally he would not be on this list but given that the Indians added him to the 40-man roster means, to me, that they saw upside in him after his power surge this year.   They always thought he could hit but now it appears they think his power-defense combination is at least giving him a chance to be a solid backup in the majors.   I don't know if we need that in the next 5 years and I don't know what trade value a guy like Haase could have but he at least gets a mention on this list.

29. Luke Wakamatsu - SS - Sons of big leaguers, if they have any talent at all, seem to do well in pro ball.  Maybe it is because they are already trained in the ups and downs of professional baseball and the grind it takes to make it.   Wakamatsu was just plodding along until the second half of 2017 when he added power to his polished small ball game.  Again, low A ball is deceiving, especially in terms of hitters.  Still, for a classic defense-first SS to have this kind of power surge is intriguing.

30. Eric Stamets - SS - Talk about power coming out of nowhere!  This guy, like Haase a surprising add to the 40-man this winter, has come out of nowhere.  Still, power is the last tool to normally develop for a hitter and a defense-first middle infielder who develops power at AAA is intriguing.

Final note: Lots of guys got left off this list that I like.   Guys like Cameron Hill and a slew of other high minors relievers (and even 2017 college arms who played at Mahoning Valley) have a shot to impact our team in the near future.  Also, guys like Matt Esparza and Francisco Perez could have that same impact if switched to the bullpen.   A number of hitters like Tyler Krieger, Ka'ii Tom and others could have an impact in the next 5 years if they find one tool in their game they can make plus.   Also, low level hitters like Oscar Gonzalez, Ulysses Cantu, Jonathon Rodriguez and others are too far away to be very impactful in the next 5 years but may be useful add-ons if the core of the major league roster is set and solid in 5 years.  Guys will always pop up and drop off of prospect lists as that is the nature of player development.   Some guys fail and some overachieve beyond all expectations.  Let's hope we have more of the latter as, like all minor league systems, there are also a bunch of guys who look like they are currently going nowhere but, with one good year, could bolt into the Indians top 30 list next year.