NOTE: I have edited this because it is so urgent I think the Indians need to act on this...and now
We lost Bryan Shaw. We lost Joe Smith who, in theory, could have been Bryan Shaw's replacement if Smith had re-signed with us. We even lost Shawn Armstrong.
So, we not only lost bodies but a really good, reliable one in Shaw. People may not like him but let's face it, folks. The guy did a great job over his time here and I will go on record as saying he might have even been the best 7th inning guy EVER in Cleveland. So he needs to be replaced.
So who replaces him (and Smith)?
We have in-house options: Nick Goody, Dan Otero, Zach McAllister and, in theory, would only need to replace the less important roles those guys played last year IF we move up that three to more prominent rolls. If that is the Indians' thinking then it makes sense. If they are thinking about moving Clevinger or Tomlin to a role more like Shaw's then I am not on board with that.
However, next winter Miller, Allen and McAllister all become free agents. The odds of signing ANY of them are poor, depending how effective McAllister is this year. So we need to act NOW to be ready for NEXT year.
We say we are done with significant free agent signings. OK, I get it. But there are, by my count, 42 free agent relievers out there of various sorts. There is just not enough market out there for even the best remaining guys to get 2 year, $15 million or so deals. Some will have to take a one year deal with an option, some a straight one year deal and a few will have to take minor league deals. We should be able to get someone decent or good on a one year deal. But is that what we want to do?
You already have long term investments in Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Lindor, Ramirez, Encarnacion and others. Maybe Lindor and Bauer will become even longer term investments this spring! You have to plan to have enough of a bullpen to support these guys. I don't believe you can just wave your hand and hope that some guy in the minors (or Clevinger in the majors) can magically become a lights out major league reliever. With your other investments you can't take that risk.
So, if I am the Indians I would reconsider my position. Yes, you sign a guy or two right now you may not desperately need this year but you will need him (them) more next year and VERY much more in two years. Plus, it is not like you are signing guys to make your bullpen stronger. You are really just signing guys to make up for the guys you lost this winter.
As I said above, the market is thinning out and I don't believe that big contracts await the remaining available relievers. Some of the names available include Glenn Perkins, Addison Reed, Chad Qualls, Duston McGowan, Greg Holland, Sergio Romo, Matt Albers, Matt Belisle, Tyler Clippard, Koji Uehara, Jason Grilli and Travis Wood and there are many more Dan Otero-like relievers out there and even some Nick Goody-like guys to unearth. The list is impressive and, if we strike now, we can put ourselves in both a good negotiating position with Allen and McAllister for next year AND keep ourselves out of a BAD negotiating position next year. If we don't we will be the ones offering $27 million, 3 year deals to guys like Shaw or Brett Cecil or $17 million, 2 year deals to 6th/7th inning situational guys like Joe Smith next year. I don't want to be in that situation and neither should the Indians.
Sign 2 or 3 good relievers now. You will love yourself in the morning if you do!
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