Guardians Philosophy About International Signing Day and Results and Learnings from Past Yeaers

January 15th is almost here.  Just outside of the 12 days of Christmas, for fans of the Cleveland Guardians this day represents a second Christmas, of sorts.  

This is the day when the Guardians announce their signing class for the 2023 international class. 

The Guardians have had tendencies in their international signings in recent years.  Here are some of the trends that I see:

• Tend to avoid the really high-ticket prospects ($2-5+ million), choosing to sign maybe one guy for over $1 million and a number of guys for in the $100,000-$500,000 range.
• Tend to sign mostly 16/17 year-old position players early and, recently, leaning toward signing older (18/19 yr olds) pitchers, sometimes later in the signing cycle.
• Tend to stay within the boundaries of the rankings.  That is, don't GENERALLY give large bonuses to prospects who aren't in consensus rankings, although they have done that with generally disastrous results.

Specifically, let's look at their history in recent years:

2017 

One of the best international signing periods in Guardians' history, here were the high bonus prospects among the 21 players they signed (overall rank of prospect in the class in parentheses).

• George Valera (#5) -$1.3 million
• Aaron Bracho (#17)-$1.5 million
• Jose Tena - $400,000
• Alexfri Planez - $400,000
• Wilfri Peralta - $300,000
• Cesar Idrogo - $90,000
• Marlin Made - $75,000
• Brayan Rocchio - $125,000
• Jhonkensy Noel - $100,000

While this is a ++ class in terms of what we have gotten out of it, note that Bracho's was only the 17th highest bonus out of this class with guys like Wander Franco ($3.8 milliion), Adolis Garcia ($2.5 million), Rony Mauricio ($2.1 million), Julio Rodriguez ($1.75 million, 15th highest bonus) ahead of him.  Valera had the 26th largest bonus and, after him, Planez and Tena were tied for 77th.   So, in this cycle, the Guardians dipped their toes a little into the deep end going for 2 players who were relatively expensive with, so far, mixed results but it looks like they really hit on the intermediate bonus prospects with the lower bonuses not working out.

NOTE: The Guardians spent all but $10,000 of their bonus pool in this cycle.  Bonuses of $10,000 or less did not count against the pool.

2018

The Guardians spent more at the high end in this cycle.  Here is a list of their top signees:

• Gabriel Rodriguez (#8) - $2.1 million
• Junior Sanquintin (#21) - $1.25 million
• Sterling Romero - $650,000
• Jesus Lara - $570,000
• Angel Martinez (#39) - $500,000
• Dayan Frias - $80,000
• Luis Osto - $50,000

NOTE_ Cleveland used up $5.15 million of their $5.504 million pool to sign these 7 players.  I can't find a list of all their signees from this class but my guess is that this was a small class due to how they front-loaded this first 7.

2019

• Jose Pastrano (#25) - $1.5 million
• Luis Durango Jr. - $500,000
• Kenny Pinto - $100,000
• Jose Devers - $450,000
• Lexer Saduy
• Esteban Gonzalez
• Yorman Gomez
• Maick Collado
• Juan Benjamin

NOTE: The Guardians signed 43 prospects using $4.861 million of their $4.981 million pool.  Jasson Dominguez signed with NYY for $5.1 million, Robert Puason for $5.1 million, Bayron Lora for $4.2 million, 

2020 (January 15, 2021)

This class  (17 players) was supposed to be signed on July 2, 2020 but, due to COVID, was pushed back to what has become the current date of January 15th, in 2021.  Here are the players with the most significant bonuses.

• Angel Genao (#23) - $1.175 million
• Fran Alduey (#25) - $1.2 million
• Robert Lopez - $530,000
• Yelfri Rivera - $500,000
• Christopher Espinola - $100,000

NOTE: Jackson Chourio was ranked #18 and signed for $1.8 million

2021 (January 15, 2022) - 20 players signed 

• Jaison Chourio (#20) - $1.2 million
• Victor Izturis (#40) - $1.15 million
• Rafael Ramirez Jr. - $800,000
• Yorfran John - $425,000 
• Alberto Mendes - $320,000

2022 (january 15, 2023) - 24 signings for $10,000 or more

• Welbyn Francisca (#28) - $1.375 million
• Yerlin Luis (#37) - $850,000
• Jose Marcano - $800,000
• Pablo Arosemena - $375,000
• Luis Merejo - $340,000
• Juan Frances - $320,000
• Jose Pirela - $320,000
• Jonathon Martinez - $300,000
• Yaikel Mijares - $275,000
• Heibert Silva - $250,000
• Jonathon Taveras - $175,000
• Jhorvic Abreus - $125,000
• Ergaldi Perez - $110,000

NOTE: As you can see, the Guardians spread the money around big-time last year.  Notably, just like with Sterling Romero before, they spent a lot of money on Jose Marcano even though he wasn't among the top 50 international prospects of this class.   Decent returns have been seen so far with this class as Francisca is a top 30 prospect with Luis, Pirela and Merejo pushing the top 40/

2023 (January 2024) - 26 players will be signed

NOTE: Like 2022, it looks like the Guardians will spread the money around with only 1 player listed in MLB Pipeline's Top 50 International Signing Day Prospects with that same player being the only one signed for over $1 million.  Here's the list with anticipated bonuses being provided by Guardians Prospective Twitter.

• Roberto Arias (#13 prospect) - $1.9 million
• Hiverson Lopez - $900 K (NOTE: Sorry, Lopez is a 2024 (Jan 2025) potential signee)
• Miguel Flores - $500 K
• Gabriel Rodriguez - $500 K
• Estivel Morillo - $435 K
• Luis Reyson De La Cruz - $430 K
• Edelvis Perez - $415 K
• Juneiker Caceres - $350 K
• Johan Rodriguez - $325 K
• Dauri Fernandez - $285 K
• Randy Martinez - $275 K
• Yeiferth Castillo - $225 K
• Romer Taveras - $200 K
• Santiago Uztaris - $150 K
• Darial Arias - $115 K
• Carlos Caripa - $105 K
• Osmar Torrealba - $72 K
• Hector Castillo - $70 K
• Willyneyer Ardilles - $65 K
• Steven Cruz - $60 K
• Alejandro Rivera - $48 K
• Wuinder Torres - $44 K
• Eric Tovar - $23 K
• Carlos Garces - $28 K
• Raul Trujillo - $20 K
• Delni Uribe - $20 K
• Alejandro Blasco - $10 K

All players are now signed (thanks to Baseball Prospective X (formerly known as Baseball Prospective Twitter) for that information) - NOTE: By my estimation the Guardians will use $6.67 million of their $7.114800 million of their bonus pool, leaving them $444,800 left for signings in the future.

OK, so there it is.  It all comes down to how good the Guardians scouts and player development people are. Things may work out like 2017 but a lot of resources could be wasted if Roberto Arias turns out like Junaior Sanquintin or Jose Pastrano.  A cash-strapped franchise like the Guardians cannot weather repeated failures in the international signing area.  The Guardians can't buy their way out of their mistakes with free agents.  So, Cleveland needs to scout better, develop better and find all the hidden gems better in amateur talent (amateur draft and international free agents) than their large market colleagues.  

Let's hope 5 years from now we are saying they did that with their international class in 2024 just like we can look back today and say we did that well in 2017.