2024 Draft - Part 3 - First thoughts about 1st Round Pick

 1st Round Pick

Every Guardians writer, blogger and serious fan has now started to think about the 2024 draft and that wonderful #1 overall pick. 

From examining previous drafts some things I think the Guardians should put on their draft room wall:

• Draft the best available player, don't draft for need or away from the strength of the draft just because that strength is also the strength in your minor league system
• Don't draft players who have to change positions for their value to be maximized
• Don't draft players with any warts at all that you would have to fix for them to maximize their ability
• Don't draft anyone with that 1st pick who has risen rapidly up the draft boards this year.

Given those provisos, there have been 3 names that have been most mentioned as the top pick in the draft who I feel should be real, and the only, contenders for that #1 pick.  Recent history has shown that, unless some injury disaster or performance cratering event happens with one or more of these top 3, our 2024 1st round pick should come from this group as every prospect below them has enough warts that even if they improve in 2024, there should be enough doubts about them to make their selection at #1 overall be impossible for the Guardians.  Just too much risk.  The three guys below have the track record and if they perform as expected this year before the draft, our #1 pick will have a huge likelihood, barring injury, of being a stud player, maybe even a perennial all-star.  The Guardians need to have blinders on and only look at these three.  If their gaze strays to the new, shiny thing that pops up this spring, we have a chance to blow the best draft pick this franchise may ever get.

So here are the guys and my thoughts on each of these top 3:

3. Travis Bazzana - He is a classic Guardians' pick.  Hit-over-power, LH hitting middle infielder with great contact skills, a little developing power and base stealing ability (see Juan Brito, for example).  The thing about Bazzana is that he is likely limited to second base. His bat makes him a top 5 pick but the comp that is being thrown around for him, Nick Madrigal, says it all.  The pluses make him a top 10, maybe even a top 5 pick, but not, in my book, a #1 overall pick.  He simply will not have enough impact.

2. Nick Kurtz - You want impact, Kurtz is your guy.  He has a plus-plus power tool and a plus hit tool and is a good defender.  The comp being thrown around for him should make every Guardians' fan salivate: Jim Thome.  Kurtz is also supposedly an excellent defender.  Kurtz only has one thing going against him: he is a first baseman.  He is also another LH hitter.  It is hard to imagine a team with two young LH hitting first basemen (Naylor and Manzardo) drafting another one if there was another player who was more versatile.  Some experts have said that Kurtz is athletic enough to play the outfield but think about that.  You have the #1 overall pick in the draft and you are going to draft a player because you THINK he might be able to be a passable OFer in the majors.  That is not a gamble thatt a team should take.   So, my guess right now is that the Guardians take Kurtz.  I think the Thome comp is too much to pass up although another comp that has been hung on Kurtz is Spencer Torkelson who had 70 power coming into the draft (Kurtz is 65).  Thinking about Torkelson I wonder if the Guardians will look elsewhere and they have to look no further than...

1. J. J. Wetherholt - You have to understand that most scouts don't give out 70 grades.  So when Wetherholt's hitting is hung with a 70 grade and the rest of his tools ooze athleticism and the ability to improve due to that athleticism, it makes one salivate.  The comp being hung on him is Chase Utley and I think he is just as likely to reach that comp as Kurtz is to make his comp of Thome.  The only difference is that Wetherholt has the position versatility to play at SS, 2B or maybe eventually, CF.  While I don't suggest drafting a player #1 overall who has to switch positions to maximze their value (see Kurtz above)  Wetherholt's position versatility makes him the safest choice for #1 overall.  I also believe that he will be cheaper than Kurtz as power is more of a premium to MLB teams than hitting.  However, the Guardians have felt the other way recently.  Sooooooo...

Other players have a chance to be selected #1 overall.  But each has their warts (e.g., Chase Burns' control), Charlie Condon (soph, only 60 or lower tools), Jac Caglianone (hitter/pitcher but not plus plus at either)).

So, I think it comes down to Kurtz or Wetherholt and I couldn't argue against either.   I just think Wetherholt is the most sure thing. The sad commentary here is that this is a relatively weak draft, even at the top, and the best players available at the top of the draft all play positions (1B/ MIFer) that are the two areas of greatest strength in the Guardians minor league system.  However, as I said before, when you have the #1 overall pick you have to take the best player available and can't waste that pick on a player with less ability or more warts just because you have a need for that other player.

Time will tell who that best player is, but I really am not sure we will get a Jackson Holliday, Dylan Crews or Paul Skenes out of our #1 pick in 2024.  But we are likely to get the best player the Guardians have ever gotten, at least at the time they are drafted.