The look from the top is VERY interesting. I have found myself with a totally different perspective than I thought I would have. I have become very picky, very petty, very conspiracy-theory. Any little thing sets me off and makes me want to switch allegiances to another guy to draft at 1-1.
This draft is top heavy in college players and many have performed at a high level so far. Still, we are entering college play and now is when I start paying a lot of attention to performances and what is behind them.
So that is what this post is about. Looking at all the guys in contention for the 1-1 and seeing where they are, with special focus on the college players as I am currently 95% sure the Guardians will pick a college guy first overall this year.
So let's dive in and see what has happened recently, using my current mock:
Travis Bazzana - Bazzana had a good overall weekend although he went 0-4 with a walk on Friday, 3-6 on Saturday and 5-6 with a double and 3 HRs before the 5th inning on Sunday. He also committed only his first error of the season (on 95 chances, all at 2B). But, looking deeper, there are concerns. Bazzana has only stolen 5 bases so far. With his speed I expected more. In addition, his production this weekend concerns me. It is conventional wisdom (don't tell Wake Forest, though), that your Friday starter is your best starting pitcher and it goes downhill from there with your Saturday, Sunday and mid-week starters being less talented/experienced. If you believe that, Bazzana's performance might, as it does me, give you pause. He went 0-4 against Utah's Friday night starter then was successful on Saturday and beat up the Sunday starter. Combined with what I think was a platinum sombrero against Hagen Smith and we may need to look closer on his results last year, last summer and this year against quality pitchers. I just don't want us to end up with a guy who will flame out in the majors. I don't think this will happen with his attitude, work ethic, personality. But we are talking 1-1 here, so...
Charlie Condon - Condon's Georgia Bulldogs were like 17-2 going into this weekend's series against Kentucky, but weren't ranked because of the low level of their non-conference opponents. This is what is concerning to all of us about Condon. He is putting up video game numbers, but it is mostly against guys with mediocre fastballs, cement mixer sliders and undeveloped slow stuff. His performance against higher level competition will be key. This weekend he went 1-8 with 5 walks and 2 Ks. On Friday he went 1-3 with a 2B, 2 walks and a HBP (his 7th). His 2B was in the 9th with the bases loaded and 2 outs but his team was trailing 16-8 at the time. On Saturday he was 0-2 with 3 walks, one of which was very Barry Bonds-esque as it came with the bases loaded. On Sunday, when Kentucky completed their sweep, Condon went 0-3 with 2 Ks, in a run-rule shortened 7 inning game. He played an uneventful RF in each game but his defensive profile as a LF/1B type still stands, although he has played some (midweek) CF, 3B and, now in conference play, RF early in the season. It does appear that the Georgia coaching staff was pimping for him by allowing him to show positional versatility, especially before conference play to enhance his draft value (most teams are not doing that). It will be interesting to see if he continues in RF and what his defensive production is and whether he is exposed as a defensive liability there, relegating him to his original LF/1B profile with his lack of speed.
Konnor Griffin - HS stats are harder to get but it looks like Griffin's one game this week ended 3-4 and he pitched 6 innings of shutout baseball with 13 Ks. For the season it appears he has 8 doubles, a triple and 5 -Rs in 42 ABs (walk numbers not available at MaxPreps) and we have all heard about his having an super human 40+ stolen base total this season. As HS stats are very dependent on competition and guys are facing 88 mph fastballs and inconsistent breaking stuff, it is hard to figure out what all this means but there are so many college players performing at a high level that I don't think his numbers warrant serious consideration at 1-1. The risk of failure, especially for a HS outfielder, is just too great to risk it when, in theory, there is no way his numbers can ever separate him from college players performing at a high level.
Chase Burns - Burns came into this season with a loud fastball and slider but not much else. But, on the college level, a ML fastball/slider combination can dominate, if the command is there. This year he has not dominated including his 7 inning game on Saturday where he struck out 13 and only gave up 3 hits and 2 walks and 1 HR. So Burns is, essentially, holding serve and sitting at the periphery of 1-1 consideration. Still, he would need a collapse of at least the college hitters in front of him w/o any drastic upward movement of the college hitters behind him to move into serious 1-1 conversation, especially for a team like the Guardians who need hitters.
Jac Caglianone - When I read reports on him I hear that he could be a legitimate 1st round pick as a pitcher or as a 1B/DH. But just because you would be the 5th best position player or 5th best pitcher in the draft this year doesn't make you 1-1. This stuff is not addititive nor is having a second position as a backup plan enough to make a guy 1-1 (thus the picky and petty stuff I mentoned above). Though he did well in conference play this weekend on both sides of the ball, he isn't making a huge move and, outside of the collapse of other guys, I don't see him as a 1-1 candidate...yet. However, with all these guys with question marks in performance or injury, he likely could easily pull into the top 5 due to his upside as a polished college player.
Hagen Smith - Like Burns, Smith held serve with a 6 ip/2 H, 0 R/1 BB/10 K conference opener against Missouri. If he continues to perform, he might pass Burns as his risk of becoming a reliever is much lower than Burns' risk due to Smith's broader repertoire of useable pitches (at the moment).
Nick Kurtz - Kurtz was only performing at a moderately acceptable level before he got hurt recently. He still has time to improve his draft stock but there is a real chance he could go all Chase DeLauter and fall into the 20s after being in the conversation for 1-1 in January. Still, I expect him to easily go in the top 7 of the draft based on his complete resume'.
JJ Wetherholt - The early leader in the clubhouse in December, Wetherholt pulled a hamstring, the 2nd in the last 9 months and is still out and has only played in 4 games this year. He, too, could go DeLauter but I expect him to be in the top 10 if he comes back and is himself later in the season.
So that's it for right now but things are heating up and college conference play could be the great separator that gives us more clarity on who will be the best 1-1 to go after in terms of talent. If 2 or 3 guys are close, you could be looking at money coming into play as, if you can save a buck among guys who are close in talent, projectability and closeness to the majors, that might, in the end, be the deciding factor.
No comments:
Post a Comment