61-101
HISTORY
The Guardians were 52-51 on July 28th, 2023. They went 24-35 the rest of the way with the same cast of characters, essentially, that they have now. If you assume that is about 1/3 of the season it is not unreasonable that they will end up with 100+ losses this year if everything plays out, on average, the same and they don’t have any significantly positive changes in performance and with the loss of Francona.
Looking back at some past 100+ loss seasons here is what I found:
- 1991 (105 losses) – For hitters the Guardians had Brook Jacoby, Carlos Baerga, Albert Belle, Mark Whiten. Their rotation included Swindell, Nagy and Candiotti. They had a bullpen by committee with Olin, Hillegas and Doug Jones getting 7 or more saves and Jesse Orosco also present. Note, however, that Jim Thome and Sandy Alomar only got bit parts in this season with much bigger roles starting the next year (cough! DeLauter & Manzardo. Cough!)
- 1987 - for hitters they had Joe Carter (32 HRs, 31 SBs), Brook Jacoby (.300, 32 HRs), Julio Franco (.319, 32 SB), Mel Hall (18 HRs, .280), Brett Butler (.295, 33 SB), Cory Snyder (33 HRs) and Pat Tabler (.307, 11 HRs). The rotation included: Candiotti, Ken Schrom, Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton and Greg Swindell, with Niekro and Carlton in their 40s. Doug Jones was in the bullpen but only had 8 saves which led the club.
While each year is different, you can see, even with good players, how easily a team can put up a 100+ loss season. BTW, there was a managerial chance in the middle of each of these seasons. Which brings me to my next topic.
MANAGING
Steven Vogt is a rookie manager, one year removed from being a player. Is he a good choice for the long-term manager of the Guardians? It appears so. But we know how rookie managers can fare. Look at Francona. He started managing in the majors at 38 years old, inheriting a losing team (65-97 the year before he arrived). In his first 4 years of managing (Philadelphia) his teams were 68-94, 75-87, 77-85 and 65-97, before he was fired. Basically, even the best managers generally take some time to ‘cook’ before they start producing, especially when they inherit a losing team. Plus the vibes I get (especially what the bench coach, Craig Albernaiz said when asked about Vogt) tell me that Vogt is going to be in a learning mode which will, no doubt, cost us games. It’s just inevitable, in my opinion.
COACHING
The upside is that the best of our coaches (Alomar, Willis) are back this year. I don’t mean to rip on Barnett, but it HAS to be an upside that we have a different guy in charge of replay challenges. Barnett was terrible and cost us countless challenges, both from challenging and, especially, NOT challenging. I hope it is MUCH better this year as I hope the Guardians finally took this position seriously and brought in someone who could handle the pressure and speed of that job. That would seem to me to be a pretty easy thing to recruit/test for. The downside is that Chris Valaika is still here. Now, I have ZERO idea whether Valaika is a good hitting coach. What I am 100% sure of is that he is NOT a good hitting coach for the players on this team. As in all teaching, it is not just how much you know about the subject but, rather, how you can communicate it to a group of people who all have different learning styles AND how successful those people are in the subject you are teaching. With the Cleveland Guardians, Chris Valaika is just NOT a good hitting coach.
PLAYERS
GENERAL - The stated goal of this team is to try to win while, at the same time, letting the young players play so we can decide which ones are keepers and which ones aren’t. The RESULT of that strategy is that we didn’t spend any money by buying free agents to fill holes on our team. As a prospect geek, I absolutely LOVE that strategy. However, you have to walk the walk. When they signed Hedges I was sort of OK with the cost as he could provide valuable tutelage to Bo Naylor and David Fry AND help our pitchers maximize their success. He showed how valuable he can be to rebuilding (Pittsburgh) and competing (Texas) teams in terms of being a positive influence and getting the most wins possible out of a pitching staff. Sooooo, while I didn’t like the expense in light of us not going after other free agents, I was OK with it. Where the wheels came off for me was giving Laureano $5.1 MM. We had so many young outfielders ready for their first ML shot who could provide power that it made and still makes ZERO sense to me, especially since we began the off-season by doing a salary dump with Quantrill and trading Enyel De Los Santos for Craig Barlow, with CA telling us that we couldn’t have obtained Barlow without off-loading roughly the equal amount of salary. Then we drop $5.1 MM on a journeyman Ofer who hasn’t really had a good year since 2019. The worst part is that the Guardians, in need of power, failed to roll the dice with DeLauter and Manzardo out of spring training while keeping Florial. This appears to be a service time manipulation ploy under the guise of getting these guys more experience to make sure they ready while other teams who are, on paper, better than the Guardians (San Diego – Jackson Merrill, Texas – Wyatt Langford) are giving their young players spots on their opening day rosters. So, basically, the FO is talking out of both sides of their mouths.
INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS – But, as always, it comes down to the players. It did for Francona in Philadelphia and it should for the Guardians. The Cardinals' Ollie Marmol and, before him are good examples. If inexperienced managers have good players the manager and coaches are under less pressure to do what Francona did every year here: pull a rabbit out of a hat and get more production out of the team than their individual stats would suggest was possible. So, if the players perform to the FO expectations (or wild hopes, actually) the Guardians should be OK. I don’t think that is going to happen and to understand my thought process, let’s look at how I think every player on the opening day roster (and IL, after they are activated) will perform:
Steven Kwan – The FO expects Kwan to have a bounce-back season this year and I think he will. I think he will hit close to .300 while doubling his HR total and increasing his XBH total by 20% while stealing the same number of bases and playing excellent defense in LF.
Andres Gimenez – Ditto with the FO thoughts on AG reverting to his 2022 form. Unfortunately, I see Gimenez performing more like his 2023 numbers than his 2022 numbers. I think his RBI total will go up but what I saw in ST made me think he hasn’t made the adjustments necessary to go back to his 2022 form. Still will play great defense but looking at .260, 15 HRs, 70 RBI, 35 BB stats. A little better but not enough to move the needle on this offense.
Jose Ramirez – Still a great player but he just tried to do too much last year, swinging at numerous pitches (especially low and inside, some almost hitting him in the knee) when it was obvious that the other team was just pitching around him. He will continue to try to do too much this year and I don’t see his stats improving at all.
Josh Naylor – I think he will be essentially the same player this year as he was last year, except that he will hit 20+ HRs. He will be the solid part of this offense but last year will be remembered as close to his peak performance which I am sure he will maintain for the next 4-5 years of his career. But to ask him to become any more is likely not going to happen.
Brayan Rocchio – Here is the one wildcard. THE guy on the opening day roster who can make the team that starts this year much better than the team that ended last year. He could have a year like Kwan did in 2022 plus maybe a few more HRs. If he does that and plays just solid defense he improves this offense a lot. If he looks like he did last year, then he adds nothing to this team as his defense is not as good as Arias’ and he likely won’t show the power Arias did last year.
Estevan Florial/Tyler Freeman – The ABs we waste on Florial will come to haunt this team early in terms of W/L record, making a deeper hole we would have to climb out of just to be competitive in the AL Central. Florial doesn’t offer anything to this team on offense over Straw and is inferior defensively. Freeman is better than Straw offensively but in the games I saw he was inferior defensively and wasn’t really challenged like he will be when ML hitters are rifling balls in his direction for 9 innings instead of the first 4-5 as is the case in spring training. We were so used to Straw running balls down that this year average defense in CF will look inferior and, yes, will cause us to lose games where last year’s great catches will turn into doubles and triples this year.
Will Brennan/Ramon
Laureano
– Frankly, Brennan has to be the guy he was in 2022 in Columbus to help this
team. Laureano has to be the guy he was
in 2019. I doubt either happens although
maybe the platoon can give us better overall production than we he had out of
RF last year. Yes, I think this could
work to make RF better than it was in 2023 while keeping the same defense. But, unless Brennan & Laureano return to
their career-peak forms, it won’t be enough to move the needle on our W/L
record.
Bo Naylor/Austin Hedges/David Fry – Clearly this catching combo will give us more production than we had last year during the first half of last year. That, alone, could take the pressure off of the big bats and, along from a stellar season by Rocchio, propel us to a winning record. I just think it is too much to ask but, hey, it might work to impact our record if everything clicks.
Arias – The one guy left on the bench, I think Arias could thrive if he embraces that role. His hitting this spring is no better than last year so, frankly, I think this is the place where he can do the least damage to this offense while still being an above average offensive utility guy who can play any position on the field except for catcher and pitcher.
Bieber – I think he is such a smart pitcher he will keep his head above water. If he can keep it at a high level for the season up to the trade deadline I think we will be in the race. It is just a lot to ask for him to be the ace he once was, even in his walk year. That is what he will need to be with our offense for him to make a difference. I just don’t see that he has that in him and I expect him to be about 6-10 when we finally trade him at the deadline, most of those losses not being from bad pitching. That’s if he stays healthy which is a HUGE ‘if’ at this point.
McKenzie – The stuff is there but his FB velocity and command is still off and he is relying on his breaking balls too much. This is a recipe for him breaking down early in the season and I think that is the likely outcome. If he can maintain great stuff and be the 2022 version of himself well, now we’re talking. Just don’t see that happening as the lack of offense will put too much pressure on our pitchers to be perfect. With his current stuff, McKenzie is far from perfect.
Bibee – He was #2 in the ROY balloting last year. IF you can get equal performance this year it will be great. I think expecting him to improve is out of the question and some regression is a good possibility. He would still be really good if he regresses but the lack of offense makes really good mean a .500 or a tad below record…and its all about the record, isn’t it?
Williams – I think the Guardians minimize the severity of injuries to their pitchers. A small injury becomes larger with time and, at the end, a guy misses all or most of the season, mainly to keep the fan base from losing interest. However, if Williams would beat the Guardians’ propaganda of lies and actually make it back, fully healthy, early this season, he could be the one pitcher who performs at a higher level than expected and be a difference maker. I could easily see him going 13-8 and push for an all-star slot if he gets healthy early and stays healthy. But if he stays on the IL, it is just another nail in the coffin of this season.
Allen – Logan Allen is a 5th starter on a good team. That’s all he is. Maybe one of the best 5th starters in the AL but not a difference makere. If he could go .500 while the other starting pitchers stay healthy and excel, that would be the recipe for success. I just think he is performing at his peak level, maybe ever, right now and he can’t be expected to do more than tread water, which is fine if everyone above you is killing it.
Carrasco – Wouldn’t it be great if Carrasco wins the comeback player of the year award? It would be a great story and I hope it happens. But a 37-year old coming off a terrible age-36 season is likely to be a hole plugger. If he is a great hole plugger his performance would be interchangeable with that of Williams but I can’t see that happening. He is more like McKenzie, in that even when he is good he won’t be good enough to be above .500 with this offense. But McKenzie has a shot at being great and I don’t think Carrasco can even be as good as Logan Allen at this point in his career. Not bad, maybe a great trade chip at the deadline, but not a difference maker here.
Clase – I think this year will look a lot like last year. He doesn’t seem to have the ability to ramp it up in a close game. He is good. He knows how to close. But he doesn’t have that next gear in a 1-run game like the best of the best closers do. So his performance this year will likely be much like it was last year which is good enough on a good team but not with a team with this offense.
Barlow – He is what he is. If he pitches like he did in KC last year he will be great. Unfortunately, he is now not ADDED to Stephan, he is REPLACING Stephan, meaning that having him doesn’t move the needle in a positive direction this year. It, at best (meaning KC production and not Padres production) means we are treading water.
Morgan – I think Morgan will be just fine and his stats will look the same as last year, which doesn’t help us improve this year. But we don’t have anyone to replace him with who will do better.
Sandlin – See Morgan. He will be just fine but what he gave us last season is the best we will ever see from Sandlin so he won’t move the needle this year, just like Morgan won’t.
Hentges – Did I mention that I think the Guardians minimize the severity of injuries to avoid fans being discouraged with the team's chances? If Hentges can come back he will, like Sandlin and Morgan, be similar to last year, meaning he won’t move the needle but, in his case, being left-handed, he is even less expendable than Morgan and Sandlin. If Hentges is on the IL for a long time, it will mean a net negative for the bullpen and this team can afford few, if any, net negatives from last year’s performances.
Herrin – Herrin has a chance to be much better. He has the stuff and size to do it. So far this year he looks like the Herrin of last year who is a major league middle reliever. If he stays that way this year, he doesn’t move the needle for the Guardians.
Gaddis – The one guy who looks like he could move into an 8th inning role. I think he will be HUGELY better than last year if he stays healthy and will be the one returning guy who could be better.
Curry – He is a swiss army knife. I think his stuff plays all the way from an opener to a closer, but I don’t see him upping his performance over last year so, at best, he is a net neutral compared to last year.
Beede – The wildcard in this mix can he be a great, shutdown reliever? If so, great, if he is Daniel Norris, then, well, he won’t improve this team’s record. As a starter, he is south of Carrasco and that won’t move the needle at all.
Cade Smith – With luck, he could be a part-time setup man this year. Most likely, his stuff will allow his rookie year to produce results like a pedestrian veteran middle reliever like Sandlin. If so, he won’t move the needle. The worst part is there are rumblings they may bring in a veteran to take his bullpen spot, sending Smith back to AAA. This would hinder his development and what is even worse it would likely cause us to have to DFA someone as the 40-man is now full. Giving that the most vulnerable guys on the roster after Lively and Florial are JRod and Noel, that unnecessary acquistion could be a real disaster.
Lively – Never understood this signing and he is, to me, only a factor if we need to soak up a lot of innings…like on a rebuilding team limping through the season. So, a non-factor in a competitive season.
Minor Leaguers – Ahh, the
X-factor. Guys coming up and providing a
spark, putting this team over the top.
Well, I go on record now saying that if they bring DeLauter and/or
Manzardo up later this year (say June or beyond) this year they are
idiots. If these are not there at the
beginning of the season we lose the ROY compensation possibility while still
possibly losing the year of service their service time manipulation is supposed
to help with. If they are not up by the end
of May this season will likely be snowballing to such an extent that it won’t
change the outcome but MIGHT cause us to lose service time control if one of
them finishes in the top 3 in ROY voting.
Will other rookies come up and provide hope for next year? Absolutely, positively, freakin’ happening
this year. I predict that we will have a
number of guys like that and, hopefully, will obtain more at the deadline like
we did with Manzardo last year. It won’t
help the 2024 season in terms of competitiveness to make the playoffs but it
will definitely put us into a better spot for 2025 with more legitimate options. Note, however, that if this happens we will
likely have to DFA prospects to clear roster spots. THAT will be painful as it is likely guys
like Noel and JRod who could be casualties.
SUMMARY
Looking at this roster, I don’t really see ANY player(s) making the huge leap that we need on offense. Small improvements are great but won’t cut it when trying to be competitive. Add to that how badly we finished last year and any disasters in the starting pitching or with Clase means disastrous results.
I think, given last year and the injury history of some of these guys and the overall disappointment, pressure and weight of losing after all those years of winning under Francona, will lead us to a 100+ loss season. We ended last year 24-35. It is not hard to believe that if we continue to play that way we would end up 61-101.
And that is my prediction. The only good that is likely to come out of this season is if we sign Josh Naylor to an extension, sort out our prospects heading into the off-season so we know who to trade, come out of this year healthy, make great trades at the deadline, have a great 2024 draft and, from our bad record this year, get the #1 overall draft slot in 2025.
So, you are all
free to bookmark this blog post and rag on me after the season. Trust me, I will WELCOME that banter because
it will mean I am very wrong about this season.
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