Thoughts For A Tuesday - Coming Home and Remembering The Diamondbacks

HEADED BACK TO CLEVELAND. WHAT TO EXPECT

 The Guardians come home after two games in New York that featured bad starting pitching, bad managing, bad defense and bad clutch hitting.  

Pretty much, they did nothing right.  It was discouraging to the diehard fan who no doubt hoped for a split and was really concerned about winning the series if we returned to Cleveland down 0-2.

Well, for those of us who fall in that category, I wanted to remind you of the 2023 NLCS.  

Arizona played heavily favored Philadelphia, as Philly was 90-72 during the regular season and Arizona squeaked in as the last wildcard team at 84-78 and Philly won the season series at 4-3 although the teams hadn't played since June.  

The first two games in Philly did nothing to change the perception of them being the dominant team as they won 5-3 and 10-0.   The teams then went to Arizona where the Diamondbacks won 2 very close games, 2-1 and 6-5, both late game comebacks, to tie the series.  In the last game in Arizona the Phillies won decisively, 6-1, meaning they only had to win one of two games when the series moved back to Philadelphia.  However, the Diamondbacks would win the last two, 5-1 and 4-2.  Paul Sewald, the Diamondbacks closer, had two saves and a win and pitched in 4 games.

The point here is that the Guardians' season is only over if they lose 2 games in Cleveland (duh!!!).  The Diamondbacks did it last year in EXACTLY the same position the Guardians are in right now. 

I don't know how this series will turn out but I have a good feeling about it.   I don't always have a good feeling about Guardians playoff series but I have a good feeling about this one.  

MY THOUGHTS: GAMES 1 and 2

As I said above, these two games were mismanaged by Vogt, misplayed on defense by Rocchio, Brennan, the Naylor boys and Hedges.  And none of our hitters hit in the clutch, especially in the winnable game 2.   

We can't cry over spilt milk but it would have really helped if:

• Fry could catch
• If our starters could show enough to give the manager the encouragement to leave them in for more than a few outs
• If our hitters like Brennan, Bo Naylor and Noel could find a way to imitate Brayan Rocchio
• If Ramirez and Naylor could become the clutch hitters we need them to be to win this series
• If our manager would make more obvious choices (Cantillo to start the 3rd inning instead of coming in with the bases loaded)

I think all these things can be fixed, in some way, except for Fry catching.

I think we find a way to win 2 of 3 or maybe even 3 of 3 in Cleveland and put the pressure back on the Yankees by carrying momentum into game 6.  Remember, it is the Yankees who haven't won a WS in 15 years.  The pressure should be on them and, if we play well, we can put it back on them.

I have faith...and this from a guy who predicted them to have a 61-101 record in 2024. 

I have faith...if we play and manage Guardsball.

Thoughts For A Sunday Night - On The Way to New York Edition

 1. Game 5 vs Detroit

Vogt will be the AL Manager of the Year now that his top competitors have been eliminated.   That being said, I knew he was choking today's game before it even started when he decided to start Bo Naylor and Noel instead of Martinez and Hedges.  This is a sign of a guy overthinking it and, as expected, little Nalz and Noel went 0-7 with a bunch of Ks and weak contact.

Seeing that lineup made me also really sure that he would panic and remove Boyd at the first sign of trouble and then create a bullpen mess the rest of the game.  That's exactly what happened.   

Leave in hitters who don't hit, remove a SP who is dealing.  Check.

People will respond and say that the Guardians won the game.  That they did, but at what cost.

• Our relievers are way, way overworked
• Gaddis with his two largest pitch counts ever, coming in back-to-back games.
• Clase with a two inning save for only the second time in his career
• Smith, Herrin, Gaddis all pitching in all 5 games, many being overextended beyond anything they have ever done
• Pulling same handed pitchers and replacing them with opposite handed pitchers leading to unfavorable matchups.
• Our starters are underworked
• Our remaining pitchers either have their confidence damaged or destroyed.
• He failed to give young guys chances
• Manzardo for Fry in the 9th would have gone a ways to help in the next series
• Daniel Schneeman didn't get a touch
• Angel Martinez hardly got a chance
• Gavin Williams didn't get a chance
• It is going to take a village to beat the Yankees in a 7 game series.  The small war party of your best warriors will not get the job done.  

There is nothing that gives me the sense that Vogt will be able to flip the switch and actually manage and actually manage with his whole roster in the upcoming NY series.  His use of the bullpen has been almost criminal as it is now HIGHLY likely that guys will come up lame either next spring or during the season due to their overuse in 2024.  We need to limit that damage to the level it is now instead of having the misconception that the way he managed in the ALDS is the right way to manage and, especially not the right way to manage in a best-of-seven ALCS.  

Because he totally mismanaged this series and, to their benefit, the Guardians found a way to overcome his overmanaging and stll win the game and the series.  But what he did needs to stop.  More about that when I talk about who I think should be on the ALCS roster.

Before looking ahead, I have to give credit to Lane Thomas for his clutch play.  Ditto to the relievers for gutting it out and for Boyd, Bibee and Cobb for giving what they were asked and not complaining about being lifted early.  Ditto to David Fry who was did well while continuing to be overused.  Without him we don't make the playoffs and we certainly don't go to the ALCS.  Finally, it was GREAT to see Rocchio to silence his critics.   I hope this is what springboards him to being an elite offensive and defensive SS going forward.  

2. Looking Ahead - ALCS Roster

Tough choices are ahead for the Guardians in this series.  My guess is that they have to go 13 hitters and 13 pitchers given that this is a best of 7 series and with the way they used their bullpen in the ALDS. So...

Position players:

Hedges, Bo Naylor, Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Gimenez, Rocchio, Kwan, Thomas, Fry are locks. That's 9, leaving 4 spots.  The Yankees look like they may have 2-3 LHRP and 1 LHSP.  This would seem to imply that we should be LHH/SH-heavy in this round.  So, to me, the next 4 should be:

Brennan, Martinez, Manzardo, Schneeman,

I really debated Straw (to start in CF, pushing Thomas to RF, where he is much better defensively) instead of Schneeman and whether I could justify Noel if we needed a RH pinch-hitter.  Unfortunately, I just think Noel played himself off this team with his last month of the regular season and his first series and Straw doesn't bring any platoon advantages as I don't think he will be needed often enough against the Yankees (25% vs SP and maybe 25% vs RP, if the Yankees would even fear him enough to make a platoon switch.  Still, Thomas has no range in CF so if they surprised us and included Straw for defense, I wouldn't be surprised, even though I think Straw is becoming a shadow of his Gold Glove self.  He still, however, is much better than Thomas in CF.  I think, on the other hand, that Brennan, Martinez, Manzardo and even Schneeman may be better options given the pitchers the Yankees are likely to deploy.  This gives us a more LH slant to our bench but I think we already have enough RH and SH hitter guys to combat the LH RP the Yankees may throw at us.  I think we would sucker them into using their LH RP for matchups but I don't think those matchups would not prove favorable to them as this series would unfold.

Pitchers:

Bibee, Boyd, Cobb, Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin and Sabrowski are locks, leaving 5 spots left.

For me, the 5 guys should be: Williams, Lively, Cantillo, Avila and Walters.

That last spot was tough for me because I had to choose Walters over Morgan and Sandlin.  Still, given how Vogt abused his leverage relievers in the ALDS, I was looking for length from Avila and, potentially, Lively or Williams, so I am willing to gamble on Walters for a 1 or 2 time usage in this series, hoping he gets it together.  The Yankees know Morgan more than well enough to abuse him just enough to maybe steal a game from us.  I think deploying Walters, a totally unknown quantity to the Yankees, 1 or 2 times in the series may get us better results.

The pitchers I suggest are only practical if we are looking for bulk relievers and realize we cannot use our leverage relievers in any way that is similar to how they were abused in the ALDS.  Some of these guys like Avila, Cantillo and Williams/Lively could bring us enough length as bulk relievers that we could bridge to Smith OR Gaddis in the 8th and Clase in the 9th, instead of trying to stretch out the 3 of them and risk long-term damage to their arms and short term downturn in their performance.

Summary

So, there it is.  My 26 for this series.  It is all a gamble as to what situations will present themselves but I have found that people work best when they know their role and you don't ask them to do more (or less) than they expect.  Doubt that the Guardians will go this way but this is what I would do.

Thoughts For A Wednesday - Motown Edition

 Well, we are 3 games into the best of 5 series in the National League and the wildcard round winners are up 2-1, looking to clinch on their home field tomorrow night.

The Guardians are playing in Motown on Wednesday, trying to be the first team this season to go up 2-1 with a chance to clinch on the road.  The Tigers have to feel pretty good as they only have to win one of two in Detroit to go back to Cleveland.  If that happens they will likely go to Tarik Skubal, the likely AL Cy Young Award winner who has been lights out in the playoffs this year.

Fans were bemoaning Monday's loss but this was just a great game that hinged on 3 bad batters for Clase, one of which was a 3-run homer.  Had Clase been perfect we might have had a redo of the 2022 game #2 in the wildcard round that went to 15 innings before Sponge Bob won it with his dramatic HR off Corey Kluber for a 1-0 win.  One run in 15 innings!  Sometimes things go your way and sometimes they don't.  

So, while some look with trepidation at the thought of going down 2-1, I look at it as an opportunity to go up 2-1.  While some fans think we have to win 2 in Detroit to avoid Skubal in game 5, I look at it like we just have to win 1 to take it back to Cleveland with the chance to produce another instant classic.  

Look, it is not for us, as fans, to decide whether the Guardians win or lose.  We are just there to root.  It is also not for us to decide if Stephen Vogt is pushing all the right buttons because I think the presumptive AL Manager of the Year has earned our trust.

Will it break Cleveland's way and will they go on to the ALCS this year?  I don't know.  But my guess is that the thrill of the ride will be good enough for me, just like it was in 2016.

My wife said I was surprisingly in good spirits after the loss on Monday.  I told her it was because I just watched a great playoff game that created plenty of memories for me with Boyd's start, Noel's hustle and great throw and Kwan's great catch.  Highlights in my memory hopefully not to be soon forgotten.  So, there is only one thing left to say about today's game 3.

Go Guardians!

And please pray for the people in Florida that they can withstand hurricane Milton with no loss of life.

Thoughts For A Monday Morning - Game 2 vs the Tigers and Other Things.

First, my prayers are with the people in Florida who are about to impacted by yet another hurricane.  I pray that God blesses and keeps you all and help all those impacted by previous hurricanes heal and recover.

Second, the Guardians play again today against Detroit's ace, Tarik Skubal.  It will be a tough task but se, your fans, are cheering for Cleveland.

Thoughts about today's game

• It is a shame that Tyler Freeman is now injured and may not play this post-season.   He was such a true professional after he got demoted and didn't sulk or underperform when he was sent to Columbus.  I think he has a chance to have a really bright future in baseball.  I hope it is with the Guardians and starts either in these playoffs or next spring and, 10 years from now, we think of Freeman the same way we now think of Jason Kipnis.
• I would like the see the Guardians put more of a push on for Cade Smith to win ROY in the AL.  It is a relatively mediocre year for rookies in the AL (especially compared to the NL), I think a good, strong push might make voters put him first.  It would help if every time a Guardians' player, coach, manager or PR person mentioned Smith's name it is preceded or immediately follow by "rookie" so people remember that the great things he has accomplished on the field this year were done by someone eligible for the ROY award.
•  I think, and hope, Matthew Boyd can keep us barely in the lead or very close this game.  Love our chances if that happens.
• Fry and Thomas were a start, but we still need more of our young hitters to step up and our young pitchers to shine.   It will take a village to win this post-season.  We have the talent.  We just need some more guys (e.g., Noel, Martinez, Brennan) to get hot.
• Love listening to Hammy and watching the game on TV with the sound turned down.  Hopefully they are more in sync today than the first game.  I felt clairvoyant, as the radio feed was ahead by a pitch so I always knew what was going to happen next on the TV.  LOL!  I grew up with baseball on the radio, with a transistor radio under my pillow for west coast games.  It's just something about the radio broadcasts that make an old guy like me feel at home.
• Could go into great analytical detail about the game but I would rather just end by saying GO GUARDIANS!!!

Final thought: I don't really understand not having the fall instructs.  Having guys getting instruction in conditioning and technical and mental aspects of the game and of living baseball in the US 24/7 can never be bad and HAS to advance their development.  Plus, injured guys need more reps, even though the bridge league did provide a little of that.  Bridge league is about games.  I am talking daily instruction, especially to continue the development of Latin American guys who played in the US this year or who will likely play here next year.  [NOTE: I did love the pictures of the guys at the Dominican complex who are there for fall training, going nuts when Lane Thomas hit his HR.]  The look is bad for the organization as it just looks like they are trying to save a buck.  So, in not having instructs, it would be nice to show fans what our ticket dollars ARE going towards this fall, that will help future Cleveland Guardians get there faster and better.

2024 - Rule 5 Draft - Part 2 - History and What It Means This Year

 Since we have a break between the regular season ending and the post-season starts, I wanted to publish  Part 2 about the upcoming Rule 5 draft.

In this piece I wanted to look back over recent history and how that would play into roster decisions that are made leading up to the 2024 November roster freeze.

As the 2024 Rule 5 eligible group for the Guardians is very heavy in pitchers, I will look only at pitchers.

Over the past two Rule 5 draft cycles (2202, 2023, there as not Rule 5 draft in 2021), here were the Guardians prospects who were most likely to be selected in the Rule 5 if not protected (players protected are in bold, red, players lost in the Rule 5 are in blue bold):

2023

Daniel Espino - SP

Cade Smith - RP

Tanner Burns - SP/RP

Ethan Hankins - SP

2022

Joey Cantillo - SP

Tim Herrin - RP

Peyton Battenfield - SP

Kevin Kelly - RP

Nic Enright - RP

Note that in these two drafts the Guardians had only 2 starting pitchers who were really at risk for being selected (Cantillo and Espino) and they were both protected.  Also, the Guardians protected two relievers (Cade Smith and Tim Herrin) who have turned out to both be high leverage options in 2024 (Smith, Herrin), while leaving unprotected a number of minor league relievers with only 1 (Kelly) making the majors so far.

As you can tell, even with the so-called pitching factory, the Guardians have been thin enough at the major league level that their quality pitching prospects have generally matriculated to the majors before  becoming Rule 5 eligible.

But, due to the almost exclusively college pitcher 2021 draft and the great development system those 18 pitchers were put into, that will be different in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.  Below is a list of pitching prospects who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this December.  I have broken this group down into 3 categories: very likely, somewhat likely and unlikely to be picked in the Rule 5 draft.  Note that ALL of these guys are either in AA or AAA meaning any one of them is in position to help the Guardians ML pitching staff sometime in 2025.

Very Likely

• Doug Nikhazy (AAA)
• Ryan Webb (AAA)
• Franco Aleman (AAA) (reliever but will likely be selected if not protected)

Somewhat Likely

• Tommy Mace (AA)
• Aaron Davenport (AA)
• Trenton Denholm (AA)

Unlikely

• Will Dion (AAA)

Also, when considering the above starting pitchers, remember that even if they fail, some (I think especially Mace) could flourish if converted to power relievers.  So we not only have to consider their potential as starting pitchers to help the ML club but as relievers, as well.

In addition, the following actual relievers are eligible for the Rule 5 this year:

• Nick Mikolajchak (AAA)
• Andrew Misiaszek (AAA)
• Lenny Torres Jr. (AA)* (becomes minor league free agent if not rostered)
• Alaska Abney (AA)
• Nic Enright (AAA)

Looking at this list, the Guardians have, when they were Rule 5-eligible, protected pitching prospects like the top 6 on this list.   There simply will not be any 40-man roster spots for any of the relievers on this list although any of the 5 of them could be conceivably help the Guardians in 2025 the way Sabrowski has helped in 2024, maybe even at the Andrew Walters level.  I think, instead, that some of the starters will be tried in relief first as they come with higher pedigrees.

So we have an issue.  Fans will scream for the Guardians to re-sign Beiber, Lively, Boyd and Cobb but, frankly, long-term, we have cheaper and more intriguing and controllable options in-house.  It's jsut that they come as higher risk without a lot of higher upside from these 4 veterans.

This is a tough choice but given how expensive starting pitching is in the majors and how many teams can't even field 5 decent starting pitchers, giving away young, controllable arms who could end up as #3 starters or power relievers in the majors is pretty hard to swallow, no matter how adversely it might impact our ML team in 2025 if we kept those guys INSTEAD of signing veteran FAs.