Since we have a break between the regular season ending and the post-season starts, I wanted to publish Part 2 about the upcoming Rule 5 draft.
In this piece I wanted to look back over recent history and how that would play into roster decisions that are made leading up to the 2024 November roster freeze.
As the 2024 Rule 5 eligible group for the Guardians is very heavy in pitchers, I will look only at pitchers.
Over the past two Rule 5 draft cycles (2202, 2023, there as not Rule 5 draft in 2021), here were the Guardians prospects who were most likely to be selected in the Rule 5 if not protected (players protected are in bold, red, players lost in the Rule 5 are in blue bold):
2023
Daniel Espino - SP
Cade Smith - RP
Tanner Burns - SP/RP
Ethan Hankins - SP
2022
Joey Cantillo - SP
Tim Herrin - RP
Peyton Battenfield - SP
Kevin Kelly - RP
Nic Enright - RP
Note that in these two drafts the Guardians had only 2 starting pitchers who were really at risk for being selected (Cantillo and Espino) and they were both protected. Also, the Guardians protected two relievers (Cade Smith and Tim Herrin) who have turned out to both be high leverage options in 2024 (Smith, Herrin), while leaving unprotected a number of minor league relievers with only 1 (Kelly) making the majors so far.
As you can tell, even with the so-called pitching factory, the Guardians have been thin enough at the major league level that their quality pitching prospects have generally matriculated to the majors before becoming Rule 5 eligible.
But, due to the almost exclusively college pitcher 2021 draft and the great development system those 18 pitchers were put into, that will be different in the upcoming Rule 5 draft. Below is a list of pitching prospects who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this December. I have broken this group down into 3 categories: very likely, somewhat likely and unlikely to be picked in the Rule 5 draft. Note that ALL of these guys are either in AA or AAA meaning any one of them is in position to help the Guardians ML pitching staff sometime in 2025.
Very Likely
- Doug Nikhazy (AAA)
- Ryan Webb (AAA)
- Franco Aleman (AAA) (reliever but will likely be selected if not protected)
Somewhat Likely
- Tommy Mace (AA)
- Aaron Davenport (AA)
- Trenton Denholm (AA)
Unlikely
- Will Dion (AAA)
Also, when considering the above starting pitchers, remember that even if they fail, some (I think especially Mace) could flourish if converted to power relievers. So we not only have to consider their potential as starting pitchers to help the ML club but as relievers, as well.
In addition, the following actual relievers are eligible for the Rule 5 this year:
- Nick Mikolajchak (AAA)
- Andrew Misiaszek (AAA)
- Lenny Torres Jr. (AA)* (becomes minor league free agent if not rostered)
- Alaska Abney (AA)
- Nic Enright (AAA)
Looking at this list, the Guardians have, when they were Rule 5-eligible, protected pitching prospects like the top 6 on this list. There simply will not be any 40-man roster spots for any of the relievers on this list although any of the 5 of them could be conceivably help the Guardians in 2025 the way Sabrowski has helped in 2024, maybe even at the Andrew Walters level. I think, instead, that some of the starters will be tried in relief first as they come with higher pedigrees.
So we have an issue. Fans will scream for the Guardians to re-sign Beiber, Lively, Boyd and Cobb but, frankly, long-term, we have cheaper and more intriguing and controllable options in-house. It's jsut that they come as higher risk without a lot of higher upside from these 4 veterans.
This is a tough choice but given how expensive starting pitching is in the majors and how many teams can't even field 5 decent starting pitchers, giving away young, controllable arms who could end up as #3 starters or power relievers in the majors is pretty hard to swallow, no matter how adversely it might impact our ML team in 2025 if we kept those guys INSTEAD of signing veteran FAs.
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