2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 9 - Why You Should Never Look at My Mock Drafts - A History Lesson

 OK, looking at the college world series and the 2025 draft combine, I am looking pretty smart as a lot of my draft choices are making noise!

But I wanted to bring this back to earth with a history lesson on my mock drafts.  Let's look back at the drafts I suggested making. Some were mock drafts prior to the draft like this year and some were immediately post-draft mock drafts.  I'll let you know which is which below.

2023 (post-draft retrospective based on available players)

1. Hursten Waldrep:
2. Zack Gelof
2C. Joe Whitman
3. Levi Wells
4. MIchael Carico
5. Jace Bohrofen
6. Alex Mooney
7. Ross Dun
8. Blake Dickerson
9. Matt Etzel
10, Tanner Witt (did not sign)
11. Johny Tincher
12. Keegan Zinn
13. Jacob Bresnahan: 
14. Zane Morehouse
15. Kyle Scott
16. Mac Heuer (did not sign)
17. Barrett Riebock
18. Matt Jachac
19. Josh Harlow
20. Ryan Marohn (did not sign)

Comments: Almost every single pick from my draft has been terrible or injured.  Had the Guardians done my draft it could have gone down as one of the worst drafts in Cleveland history.

2022 (pre-draft)

Round 1 (16 overall) - Zach Neto - SS (went 3 picks before this)

Round 1S (37 overall) - Gabriel Hughes, RHP (went 27 picks before this)

Round 2 (54 overall) - Jud Fabian - OF

Round 3 (92 overall) - Luke Gold - infielder

Round 4 (122 overall) - Xavier Isaac - 1B HS (went 112 places earlier)

Round 5 (152 overall) - Jayson Jones - 3B, HS

Round 6 (182 overall) - Chris Villamin LHP, college

Round 7 (212 overall) - Jorel Ortega 2B, college

Round 8 (242 overall) - Nate Baez - C college

Round 9 (272 overall) - Riley Cornelio - RHP College

Round 10 (302 overall) - Tyler Schweitzer, LHP college

 

Comments - This is a mixed bag for me.  I like parts of my draft (Fabian and Isaac and the lack of slap hitters) but it is hard to argue with DeLauter and Messick and even the Campbell pick.  Bottom line: Other teams liked guys more than I did so my pre-draft strategy would have fallen apart and I would have, from the get-go, been looking for alternatives meaning I did not read the market for these guys correctly.  On the upside, at least I picked guys who were highly valued and valued well above their pre-draft rankings.  So there's that as a consolation prize.

SUMMARY

Here's a hot take: I am really not very good with mock drafts. I either draft the entirely wrong guys (2023) or project the guys who won't even be there when I get to that pick (2022). Despite my complaining, the Guardians tend to do better than me. Duh, they're professionals and I am just a fan.

So, when I do a mock draft...realize that it is going to be wrong.  Ahhh, I feel a lot better now.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 8 - Finding 3rd Day Hidden Gems Part 2 - Third Day High School Catchers

INTRODUCTION

So, you may ask, why am I talking about drafting HS catchers on the 3rd day of the draft?

Three reasons:

• I believe that the college catching prospects don't line up, at all, based on talent, with where our draft slots are.  Each one would likely be a significant overdraft if we were able to get them and I just don't see that they are worth that, given the talent in the draft at each of those slots.  Obviously, if a guy drops significantly we might draft them in the first 10 rounds, but that applies to all draft prospects who drop significantly. 
• I believe that the Guardians will look at the failures they have had with 3rd day college catchers and not want to go there again.
• I believe that the Guardians are disappointed with the development of their international catcher signees which, in the past few years, they emphasized with zero success in producing even marginal prospects.
• I believe they are excited about the one 3rd day catching prospect they drafted in the past 4 years, Logun Clark (see below).

BACKGROUND

HS catchers are a tough pick in the draft, especially if teams spend a 1st or 2nd day pick on one.   Blowing a top 10 round pick on someone with only a low % chance of making the majors is difficult to swallow with the bonuses top 10 round picks are paid today.  

Let's look at some numbers.

HS catchers drafted by the Guardians between 2021-2024: 

• In 2023 they drafted Ralphy Velasques with their 1st round pick but quickly moved him off catcher putting him first to 1B and then, when they found he was athletic enough, to LF.  
• In 2022 they drafted Logun Clark in the 16th round.  I have watched him develop and he is the reason I am suggesting that the Guardians draft a couple of more HS catchers on the 3rd day of the 2025 draft.

HS Catchers Drafted By All Teams in 2021-2024

Top 10 rounds (Days 1 and 2)  

• Rated HS catching prospects drafted: 10
• Rated signed: 10
• Unrated drafted: 4
• Unrated signed: 4

NOTE: So all 14 HS catchers drafted in the top 10 rounds in 2021-2024 signed

Day 3 (rounds 11-20)

• Rated HS catching prospects signed: 1
• Rated unsigned: 3
• Non-rated signed: 9
• Non-rated prospects unsigned: 3
• Rated not drafted: 18

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS ORGANIZATIONAL CATCHER DEPTH

Major Leagues

Bo Naylor - Naylor was a Guardians 1st round draft pick in . Based on what we know today, would make a great backup catcher on a WS-contending ML team.  He could survive as a starter on such a team IF he was, by far, the weakest hitter and a great defender.  Think Austin Hedges who could hit a little.

Farm System

1. Cooper Ingle - The darling of the fans and of prospect rankings, Ingle is a very good slap hitter who has shown only a small amount of power and whose defense is a work in progress.  Still, he is the best hitter of the catchers in the farm system. ETA to ML: 2026. He hits LH which is a preferred handedness for catchers.

2. Jacob Cozart - A surprise 2nd round pick last year, he is another LHH. I would have expected him to dominate with the bat this year but, in 149 AB in A+ he has a .610 OPS.  It is early in his career but he appears to be a wasted draft pick at this point with a ceiling of Austin Hedges. ETA 2027.

3. Kody Huff - Huff, a RHH, was acquired in the Cal Quantrill trade.  He is a marginal hitter, good defensive catcher.  It would be fair to say that he is Jacob Cozart but two years more advanced.  Still, he profiles to me as a ML backup.  ETA - 2025

4. Logun Clark - A surprise #3 on this list, he has an outstanding arm, throwing out 3 potential base stealers in one inning last year.  A strong RHH, he has some pop in his bat and is an extremely hard worker and mature beyond his years as he is becoming the primary catcher at Lynchburg this year.  While I love Logun Clark as a prospect, his position on this shows as much about how weak catching is in Cleveland's system as it does about his prospect status. However, Clark is the poster child for what I would like out of this draft, for the Guardians to draft a couple of HS catchers like or better than Clark on the 3rd day of the draft, just like they did with Clark in 2023. ETA - 2028

5. Hiverson Lopez - The top prospect signed by the Guardians in the 2025 international signing period, Lopez is the best catcher on the DSL teams.  ETA - 2029

6. All other catchers in the Guardians system appear to be organizational players

NOTE: The catching depth in our farm system is really bad right now as we really don't have any good catchers at Lynchburg or on the ACL team and only Ingle appearding, right now, as a potential ML starter being ready in the next few years.

POSSIBLE 3RD DAY DRAFTEES AMONG HIGH SCHOOL CATCHING PROSPECTS IN 2025

Top Tier

Top rated HS catchers go to college more often than they sign, especially since NIL money is so good in college right now.  However, as indicated above, the ones drafted in the top 10 rounds do tend to sign.  That being said, if any of the following HS catchers are available on the 3rd day AND are signable, I think you draft up to 2 of them.  Here is my ranking, in order of these guys.  

1. Trent Grindlinger

2. Omar Serna

3. Brayden Jaksa

4. Ty Harvey

5. Landon Hodge

6. Michael Oliveto

7. Taitn Gray (just because I think he is the one who clearly will be drafted earliest)

All of these catchers are rated high enough to go in the first 5 rounds and, as said above, high school catchers drafted early, like these guys, are one of the worst bets in the draft in terms of eventually making the majors. 

NOTE: If any of these guys drop to the 3rd day AND we can sign them for a reasonable bonus, I hope the Guardians draft one and then draft a second HS catcher from the 2nd tier (see below)  

Second Tier

A number of the following catchers may be drafted before the 3rd day but, assuming that none of the top tier guys are available and signable on the 3rd day, here is a list of HS catchers I would pick 2 from in our 10 3rd day draft picks. I have not rated them in any order but here are some of the guys I would be excited by if I saw a couple of them drafted by the Guardians on the 3rd day.

• Presley Courville
• Endo Infelise
• Cade McDade
• Peter Mershon
• Stow Rogers
• Quinn Schambow
• Josh Toole
• Cash Williams
• Jeter Worthley
• Alonzo Alvarez (participating in MLB draft combine)
• Brady Dallimore (participating in MLB draft combine)
• Jase Mitchell (participating in MLB draft combine)
• Owen Jenkins (participating in MLB draft combine)
• Diego Rosa (participating in MLB draft combine

The only reason I mention that the last 5 are in the combine (all the top tier HS catchers above are, as well) is because if a player wasn't open to signing a pro contract or if he was not yet quality enough to warrant a pro contract (scouts would let them know they need more development) then they wouldn't be at the combine, especially since every single one of these guys has a college scholarship offer at a big-time college baseball program.

SUMMARY

Look, the Guardians have been innovators in the draft, starting in 2021 with their college pitcher draft and through 2023, with their extreme slap hitter draft.  Spending 2 picks on the 3rd day on HS catchers makes perfect sense as the type of outside-the-box thinking the Guardians are becoming famous for in the draft.  I also believe the following:

• This draft is deep in HS catching prospects of the type you could grab on the 3rd day.
• There are a number of cases where top colleges have signed 2 of these HS catchers, meaning only one is likely to play with the other red-shirted
• The current situation in the transfer portal could mean that an opening that a HS catcher saw at the college they committed to might be compromised by that college signing 1 or more advanced college catchers out of the portal.

There are a number of good HS catchers (probably many more than the ones on the above lists) that will be available on the 3rd day of the draft.  Given how low the odds are of a 3rd day draftee making the majors anyway, and the early success they have seen with Logun Clark, I could see this picking up a couple of these guys on the 3rd day being a really smart play by the Guardians.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 7 - Finding 3rd Day Hidden Gems Part 1 - Power Hitters

 OK, now that we have completed the rationale for my mock draft of days 1 and 2 of the 2025 draft, time to look ahead to day 3 and gems we might find there.  

This year I want to do some Guardians-like and some anti-Guardians things.  So here is what I am looking for on the 3rd day>  

• POWER HITTERS - I want to look for HS and college power hitters.  Due to the 2022 and 2023 slap hitter drafts and how we handle international signings the lower part of our minors is scattered with guys who have, at best, 45 grade power. I might look for one college catcher in this group, as well, with some ability to play other positions.
• HS PITCHER FLYERS - While this is very Guardians' like I want to find as many guys like Jacob Remily (2024), Keegan Zinn 2023) and Jacob Bresnahan (2023) guys as possible.  Even the wonderful 2021 college pitcher draft has yet to produce, from rounds 11-20, a single guy who has got a foothold on AAA yet.  While that is unsurprising for guys drafted that low, it points out how difficult it is for guys drafted on the 3rd day to even make it
• HS CATCHERS - We have had so much bad luck with drafting college catchers and signing international amateur free agent catchers that I wanted to try something different.  Logun Clark (HS catcher, 16th round, 2023) is probably the most exciting catching prospect we have in the low minors.  He is not a great prospect, not even making top 30 lists for Cleveland and HS hitters take a long time to develop.  Still, I think it is time to draft a number of HS catchers on day 3 and let the developmental process sort them out.
• COLLEGE RELIEVERS - This is a great way to fill up the 3rd day of the draft as the Guardians, once again, showed in 2024.  In fact, 57.5% (23/40) of their day 3 draft picks in the past 4 years have been college relievers.  This year I would like to see 2/10 of those picks being college pitchers.  
• INJURED COLLEGE PITCHERS - The Guardians have gone down this path before. signing guys coming off TJ surgery or other arm injuries that kept them out mostly or completely, from competing in their draft year.  Coaxing 1-2 of those guys who would have gone in the second day of the draft if healthy would be a big win, especially toward the end of the 3rd day

As I am focused right now on college power hitters, here are some I would like to see the Guardians consider on the 3rd day.

POWER HITTERS

• Boston Smith, Sr.,  LHH, Wright State, C, INF, OF - Playing in a weak conference and catching full-time for the first time, he hit 26 HRs.  In the previous 2 years in summer ball and in college, he played every position except 1B and CF so he has some versatility.
• John Bay, Sr., CF, RHH, Austin Peay - Bay was one of my dark horses for the Guardians to draft late in the 2024 draft.  He went undrafted and returned to college where he just turned 24.  As a centerfielder who hit 24 and 22 HRs and stole 11 and 12 bases in 2024 and 2025, respectively, I think, as a 3rd day pick he makes a lot of sense, even if he did play in a weak conference. He also hit 4 HRs and had a .900 OPS in the Cape last summer.  I love that he stayed at Austin Peay instead of entering the portal last year.
• Judd Utermark, 2B/3B , RHH, Jr. Ole. Miss - Hit 22 HR this year but had 92 K in only 252 ABs so teams may be scared off from drafting him on the first 2 days due to the excessive swing and miss.  Might be a good 3rd day pick
• Eddie Madrigal, LHH,  1B, RF, C, RS-Jr., St. Mary's (CA) - Hit 21 HRs playing mainly 1B but has played RF, CF, LF and C in the past.  Missed a lot of time due to injuries and may just be rounding into form.
• Easton Amundsen, Sr., LHH, 1B/RF/LF,  Metro State University (Denver) - The DII HR leader (34) this spring, if the Guardians can sign him as a NDFA and just throw him out there and see what he has, it would be interesting.  The Guardians have a lot of slap hitters but not many power hitters so I would like to see them get as many as possible in the draft.

As far as college and HS pitchers and HS catchers go, I will cover them in a later post once I do a little more research.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 6 - How I got to my Mock Draft 1.0 - The Guardians 6th-10th round picks

 As I head down the backstretch of day 2 picks. here are my picks and rationales for the Guardians picks in rounds 6-10 of my mock draft.

Sixth Round Slot 192 

Dennis pick: Zane Taylor, RHP UNC Wilmington

Rationale: In the 2024 draft the Guardians selected college senior pitcher Caden Favors in the 6th round, partially to save money for HS flyer picks later in the top 10 rounds (Sullivan and Mobley).  Taylor, also a college senior, will be a hot commodity in this draft. He is a college senior with very good control (55 grade) whose fastball jumped up this year (60).  I moved him up to the 6th round because I believe he will be gone after that, despite the fact that Antonio Jean may be a better long-term pitching prospect.  The goal here is to draft a couple of pitchers in the first 10 rounds who are college seniors to save money. College seniors historically get lower bonuses because they have no leverage to return to school.  This saved money can then be used to sign other prospects to overslot bonuses.  The thought process for drafting guys like Taylor is that these college seniors with good control may still have some upside and to get them into the Guardians FSFCP to maximize that upside.  Looking at Taylor's grades, he fits into what Cleveland would likely be looking for: college pitchers with good control and some potential left in their fastball development. FYI, in 3 drafts before 2024 they took 2 college junior pitchers and Tommy Hawke so there is precedent for them drafting college pitchers in this spot is there.

Seventh Round Slot 222

Dennis pick: Antoine Jean, LHP - Houston

Rationale: Ditto for what I said about Taylor, Antoine Jean is a college senior, one of the highest ranking college seniors in the draft and maybe the best college senior pitcher available.  He flourished as a long reliever at Houston this year and his fastball ticked up a couple of MPH.  He is the perfect college senior sign to throw into the Guardian's' FSFCP and see what comes out the other side AND save some money for overslot bonuses later.

Eighth Round Slot 222

Dennis pick: Henry Allen, IF - NW Florida JC

Rationale: I said that the two areas I wanted to add this year was power hitting and college pitching.  Since I don't like HS hitters, I thought I would do something very un-Guardians-like and dip into the junior college ranks for one of the best power hitting prospect in that group, but a guy who doesn't check enough boxes to be included in draft prospect rankings. Allen is the classic boom-or-bust pick but likely will sign for a slot or a little below bonus and checks the box for adding another intriguing college power bat into the organization and, as a JUCO guy, one who would likely be a year or two behind Fischer, Turley and even Ralphy Velasquez.

Nineth Round  Slot 282 

Dennis pick: Jake Knapp - RHP - University of North Carolina

Rationale:  OK, if you follow the draft closely you might start to get the thought that I have lost my mind.  Knapp is a 24 year old college JUNIOR whose biggest assets are that he is a winner (14-0 this year, including winner the opener in North Carolina's super regional last night and a guy who has very good control.  To me, he is very comparable to Austin Peterson from 2022 and, yest, he should be readily signable due to his age, although he does have college eligibility left.  He would also give us another draftee who we could sign for underslot, giving us more money for HS flyers later.

Tenth Round Slot 312 

Dennis pick: Marcelo Harsch - RHP - Seton Hall Prep

Rationale: After the 9th round you might have been thinking, 'What is Dennis saving money for?'  Well, just like 2024 with Chase Mobley, there will be a number of quality HS pitching prospects left at this point who will require well overslot bonuses.  The Guardians should have saved enough money to get Harsch and probably 1-2 other HS players (power hitters or pitchers) on the 3rd day of the drafted, similar to Jacob Bresnahan in 2023.  

SUMMARY

I think Mike Tyson said 'Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face' or something like that.  My mock draft, like all mock drafts, is subject to one major things: guys who I want being available when I suggest the Guardians draft them AND there being good HS or JUCO prospects available to spend the money I saved by not going overbudget much in the first 2 days of the draft.  Like all mock drafts, mine is a house of cards, being even more so as I selected their picks through the top 10 rounds of the draft.

In any case, this gives you an idea into my thought process in doing my mock draft.  Hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed doing my mock draft.

Now on to watch some college playoff baseball.

Go Guardians!

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 5 - How I got to my Mock Draft 1.0 - The Guardians 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks

 Historically, these are the rounds where teams start to draft players who make their fans ask "Who is that guy and why did we draft him this high?"  This is really where the phrase 'Teams like who they like' was probably coined.  This does provide some opportunity for other teams to take guys who have dropped for performance or bonus demand reasons and maybe get a gem or two. These are the rounds where guys like Tanner Bibee are often selected and my prediction is that Bibee, a 5th round pick, will end up being one of the biggest bargains in Cleveland draft history.  

Knowing their history and successes and overlaying that to the 2025 draft class, here is the rationale for my predictions in rounds 3-5.

Third Round Slot 101

Dennis pick - Sean Youngerman, RHP - Oklahoma St.

Rationale - As I said above, this is a place in the draft where teams can go bold (overdraft or underperformers/difficult to sign high-ranked prospects) or safe (ranked guys who they think they can develop into something. The Guardians last four 3rd round picks were Joey Oakie (HS RHP, picked 84, rank 46), CJ Kayfus (college 1B, picked 93, ranked 153), Joe Lampe (college OF, picked 92nd, ranked 106th) and Jake Fox (HS OF, pick 95, ranked 198).  This tells me that Cleveland usually picks a ranked prospect here but isn't afraid to pick one who is ranked significantly lower than their slot (i.e., they like who they like)

Given their history, it is surprising that I picked Youngerman, who was ranked 114th by MLB Pipeline and 93rd by ESPN.  While Youngerman is exactly the type of college pitcher the Guardians go after (good control, FB velocity they feel they can build on), going 'safe' on their 3rd round pick is unusual for them, based on recent draft history.  Still, I can see 2025 being exactly the type of draft that the Guardians saw in 2021 and Bibee and Messick can give them faith that Youngerman can become a top prospect under the tutelage of the Guardians Finishing School For College Pitchers (FSFCP).

Other possible picks - Given their recent history, everything is on the table for the Guardians with this pick: HS pitcher who will require an above slot bonus, HS position player, college slap hitter with emerging power in addition to the aforementioned college pitchers.  Also on the table, depending on how much the Guardians value college power hitters, are two guys, Jared Jones (1B/DH, LSU, RHH) or the rapidly rising Nolan Schubert (LF, Oklahoma St., LHH), both of whom flash 60 grade power.  Given their LHH draft strategy in the past, I could see them going for Jones if they had to choose between the two just to balance the farm system and the ML team that will have Kayfus and Manzardo on it..

Or, they could buck history and surprise us all with a player who isn't highly ranked.  Let's hope they don't go for this latter route.

Fourth Round Slot #132

Dennis pick - Caden Hunter, LHP - USC

Rationale - I tend to be conservative with these early 2nd day picks.  I am sure there will be lots of guys who drop like Dakota Jordan last year (rank 34, drafted 116) and I would love to see the Guardians pick one up here, I can't predict who might be available at this pick so I went with a rather 'safe' college pitcher who is ranked appropriately and who I feel the Guardians could develop in their FSFCP.  

Other possible picks - This is the last time in my pick rationales that I will include this section.  Clearly, at this point, anyone is on the table, including some low bonus college senior pitchers to save a good chunk of bonus money for other picks who will require overslot bonuses.  

Fifth Round Slot  #162 

Dennis pick: Matt Barr, RHP - Niagara NY JC

Rationale: In a nod to Rick Manning, I am picking a Niagara, NY guy here.  Barr will be the most highly sought-after JUCO player in the draft and will require an overslot bonus.  He shows a good fastball and is sort of out of line for what the Guardians pick but I am more comfortable with a guy who has had college experience (albeit at a JUCO) than a HS guy like Oakie or Mobley or Sullivan, all drafted in the 1st 10 rounds last year.  Plus, the Guardians have had a limited success story with Matt Wilkinson who they drafted out of the JUCO ranks last year. That being said, historically, the Guardians tend not to pick junior college guys this early in the draft.  Back in the day they did but not so much recently.  In the last 4 drafts they picked Aiden Major (RHP, West Virginia, pick 146, rank 245; Christian Knapczyk (SS, Louisville, pick 161, rank 157); Guy Lipscomb (OF, Belmont, pick 151, not ranked), Tanner Bibee (RHP, Cal St. Fullerton, pick 156, rank 162).  So their history and the pro performance of these guys show they are willing to be risky but their success was when they went for a solid college pitcher who the FSFCP could develop.  Obviously this pick will be highly dependent on who is available and who has what bonus demands compared to the talent of HS flyer picks who could be drafted later.  I think Barr will be available and that other teams picking after the Guardians 5th round pick will be kicking themselves for not picking Barr in their previous pick.

Next time I will finish up my mock draft rationalization series talking about the Guardians last 5 picks in the top 10 rounds, slots 192, 222, 252, 282 and 312.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 4 - How I got to my Mock Draft 1.0 - The Guardians 3 Second Round Picks

 If you think picking at the end of the first round is hard to predict, think about at the end of the second round where some guys have been overdrafted and some guys have fallen dramatically, maybe as much as 20-30 spots.   

That being said, I think it helps that the Guardians draft history gives us some clues.  So here is the thinking I used to come up with their 3 second round picks.

• There is only 1 pick between their 2nd round pick (#64) and their first Comp B pick (#66) and only 3 picks between their first Comp B pick and their second one (#70).  I think this will give the Guardians a little freedom in making these 3 picks as the odds of losing a guy they really want between 64 and 66 are very low and also kind of low between 66 and 70 and even 64 and 70..
• I think one of their developmental strengths is finishing off the development of college pitchers so I think 2 of these 3 picks will be college pitchers.
• My feeling is that their next position player after Fischer in the first round will be a power hitting outfielder from a good college program.
• I don't think they draft a HS pitcher or position player at any of these 3 picks as there will likely be a lot of good, 2nd tier college players available.

So, with those thoughts in mind, how did I get to my prediction of the guys they would pick with their 3 second round choices?

Second Round Slot 64

Dennis pick: Joseph Dzierwa - LHP Michigan State

Rationale - A strength of this draft at this point will be college pitching.  A lot of these pitchers have warts.  Not enough FB belo, not enough control, not a good enough junior year performance, not enough pitches to remain as a starter.  Cleveland looks for pitchability guys.  That is, guys who have some fastball but have lots of control and effective of their secondary stuff. Dzierwa is a fastball/changeup guy with above average (55) control.  He is rated as #74 by both MLB Pipeline and ESPN (I won't pay for a BA subscription).  He seems like a Cleveland guy and with the success of Parker Messick, who is the same type of pitcher, IMO, I think this is a good, solid pick for Cleveland at this point. An added plus is that he is a cold weather guy, having pitched at Michigan State.

COMP B Pick Slot 66

Dennis pick: AJ Russell - RHP Tennessee

Rationale - Here is where having two picks close together is helpful.  Russell could turn out to be the prize or the bust of this draft FOR ANY TEAM THAT PICKS HIM. Rated 69 by MLB Pipeline and 80 by ESPN,  Given that his FB is rated a 70 right now and an 80/80 if he adds some velo (92-95 now, touching 98), he might even go in the first round!  He has had durability issues so teams may be wary of him but I think if he is there at 64, he will be there at 66.  

COMP B Pick Slot 70

Dennis pick: Gavin Turley, OF, Oregon State

Rationale - This is a "free" pick, coming in the Josh Naylor trade.  After drafting 2 college pitchers I was looking for a college positional player to replace Naylor's power and not clog, if possible, our up and coming position player prospects. Impressions of Turley's value vary widely.   MLB Pipeline has him at 78 whereas ESPN doesn't even have him in their top 150.  Remember, this is MY draft, meaning that it is MY premise for what this organization needs.  In preface to my mock I have said that this organization needs to focus on college power hitters and college pitchers in this draft.  Turley is the power hitter with some scouts hanging a 70 on his power with consensus at 60.  He also shows, some speed, a good arm and is a good fielder in the OF, meaning he has some positional value that other college power hitters (even Andrew Fischer, who was my first round pick) do not have. I am taking my shot at him here.

Other possible picks

So, here is where it becomes difficult as there are soooooo many ways the Guardians could go here. For example, you could substitute power hitters Henry Ford (LF/1B), Jarren Jones (1B) or even the very upwardly mobile Nolan Schubart (LF) (although I hate late risers in the draft.

As far as high school picks I don't see the Guardians going this direction.  They have already stocked up with HS pitchers in the last couple of draft.  Velasquez has reaffirmed that HS hitters can take a long time to develop.  

As far as college position players, I don't see anyone I like more than Turley and I don't want to draft 3 college position players in my top 4 picks of ANY draft.

There are a lot of intriguing college pitchers at these 3 slots. Eyanson, Thompson, Curry, Crossland, Witherspoon.  Control was not optimal for some of these guys but they all have some polish and one or more plus pitches.

Summary 

As far as pitchers these predictions could go to heck in Dzierwa and Russall are gone.  If they are there this would solidify our draft with solid to spectacular, depending on development ML pitchers in the Messick, Gavin Williams ilk.  As far as replacing Turley if he is gone, there are ample power hitters, just not ones with his positional versatility.  However, since the goal is to add power, I could live with a little positional limitation as not all prospects develop into major league players. 

If we are going with HS players here it is safe to say that NONE of them will be major leaguers when Jose's current contract runs out...and I am looking for the ML talent to be young, strong and cheap when we try to convince Jose to finish his career in Cleveland.

Next time we will look at our 3rd-5th round picks and see how I got to those players.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 3 - How I got to my Mock Draft 1.0 - First Round Pick (#27)

 When I put a mock draft together for the Guardians I feel that you have to use a shotgun approach.  That is, at each draft slot pick a number of guys of similar talent who I think would be available at that slot and then pick the one that makes the most sense to me.

The one thing to consider is that sometimes the guy you want is selected before you get them.  Colt Emerson is the perfect example. In some cases a guy falls into your lap who is much more highly rated but slides in the draft for some reason.  Chase DeLauter is an example of that. Finally, and this is the part I hate, sometimes teams just like who they like.  Sometimes that works out (Mike Trout) but, mostly, it ends in disaster.  

So, knowing this, let's take a look at my mock 1.0 and the prospects available and see what my thinking was:

First Round - Slot 27

Dennis pick: Andrew Fischer 1B/3B - Tennessee

Rationale: If you read Part 1 in this series you will see that I am prioritizing college power hitters and college pitchers in this draft.  Fischer, due to his defensive limitations, is rated lower on some sites than on others and I get that.  But he has the power I covet and we are seeing that college power hitters get to the majors quickly, if you look at Kurtz and Cags.  So, while Fischer may be a slight overdraft and, if he is only a first baseman, doesn't play a position of need for this organization, I think he is the best fit for the Guardians from the players I think will be available.

Other possible picks

High School kids: The Guardians selected HS guys (Velasquez and Doughty) the last 2 years. I don't think they would go to that well again.

Guys who drop - .The hardest category to identify until right before the draft.  Kiley McDaniel in his first mock suggested the Guardians might be able to snag Tyler Bremner, RHP from UC Santa Barbara. If he fell to the Guardians, he is the one guy I would take before Fischer..

College outfielders - The problem is that college outfielders available at this point (Conrad, Belyeu and Neville) don't have enough power for me and I actually like Fischer more than the one OFer who might be available who has power (Devin Taylor).

College catchers - Irish should be gone.  Stevenson is a draft-eligible sophomore and I am concerned with his bat.  Bodine is the best hitter of the bunch and is a switch hitter, but his profile is very much like Ingle.  The only way i see drafting him is if I use Ingle in a deadline deal.  With Huff at AAA, Ingle at AA and spending a 2nd round pick in 2024 on Cozart who is in A+, I think the Guardians will not spend a high draft pick on a catcher, college or HS.

College pitchers - The 27 spot is a void for college pitchers.  The best ones will likely be gone and the second tier does not have the same potential as Fischer.

In summary, when I looked at the guys available, unless someone falls to the Guardians who was supposed to be an early round pick and that person is willing to sign for slot or a little above, I think Fischer is the best value for the Guardians in terms of what they need in tools and in positional fit in the organization.

Next time we will look at our 2nd round picks, #64. #66 and #70.