Historically, these are the rounds where teams start to draft players who make their fans ask "Who is that guy and why did we draft him this high?" This is really where the phrase 'Teams like who they like' was probably coined. This does provide some opportunity for other teams to take guys who have dropped for performance or bonus demand reasons and maybe get a gem or two. These are the rounds where guys like Tanner Bibee are often selected and my prediction is that Bibee, a 5th round pick, will end up being one of the biggest bargains in Cleveland draft history.
Knowing their history and successes and overlaying that to the 2025 draft class, here is the rationale for my predictions in rounds 3-5.
Third Round Slot 101
Dennis pick - Sean Youngerman, RHP - Oklahoma St.
Rationale - As I said above, this is a place in the draft where teams can go bold (overdraft or underperformers/difficult to sign high-ranked prospects) or safe (ranked guys who they think they can develop into something. The Guardians last four 3rd round picks were Joey Oakie (HS RHP, picked 84, rank 46), CJ Kayfus (college 1B, picked 93, ranked 153), Joe Lampe (college OF, picked 92nd, ranked 106th) and Jake Fox (HS OF, pick 95, ranked 198). This tells me that Cleveland usually picks a ranked prospect here but isn't afraid to pick one who is ranked significantly lower than their slot (i.e., they like who they like)
Given their history, it is surprising that I picked Youngerman, who was ranked 114th by MLB Pipeline and 93rd by ESPN. While Youngerman is exactly the type of college pitcher the Guardians go after (good control, FB velocity they feel they can build on), going 'safe' on their 3rd round pick is unusual for them, based on recent draft history. Still, I can see 2025 being exactly the type of draft that the Guardians saw in 2021 and Bibee and Messick can give them faith that Youngerman can become a top prospect under the tutelage of the Guardians Finishing School For College Pitchers (FSFCP).
Other possible picks - Given their recent history, everything is on the table for the Guardians with this pick: HS pitcher who will require an above slot bonus, HS position player, college slap hitter with emerging power in addition to the aforementioned college pitchers. Also on the table, depending on how much the Guardians value college power hitters, are two guys, Jared Jones (1B/DH, LSU, RHH) or the rapidly rising Nolan Schubert (LF, Oklahoma St., LHH), both of whom flash 60 grade power. Given their LHH draft strategy in the past, I could see them going for Jones if they had to choose between the two just to balance the farm system and the ML team that will have Kayfus and Manzardo on it..
Or, they could buck history and surprise us all with a player who isn't highly ranked. Let's hope they don't go for this latter route.
Fourth Round Slot #132
Dennis pick - Caden Hunter, LHP - USC
Rationale - I tend to be conservative with these early 2nd day picks. I am sure there will be lots of guys who drop like Dakota Jordan last year (rank 34, drafted 116) and I would love to see the Guardians pick one up here, I can't predict who might be available at this pick so I went with a rather 'safe' college pitcher who is ranked appropriately and who I feel the Guardians could develop in their FSFCP.
Other possible picks - This is the last time in my pick rationales that I will include this section. Clearly, at this point, anyone is on the table, including some low bonus college senior pitchers to save a good chunk of bonus money for other picks who will require overslot bonuses.
Fifth Round Slot #162
Dennis pick: Matt Barr, RHP - Niagara NY JC
Rationale: In a nod to Rick Manning, I am picking a Niagara, NY guy here. Barr will be the most highly sought-after JUCO player in the draft and will require an overslot bonus. He shows a good fastball and is sort of out of line for what the Guardians pick but I am more comfortable with a guy who has had college experience (albeit at a JUCO) than a HS guy like Oakie or Mobley or Sullivan, all drafted in the 1st 10 rounds last year. Plus, the Guardians have had a limited success story with Matt Wilkinson who they drafted out of the JUCO ranks last year. That being said, historically, the Guardians tend not to pick junior college guys this early in the draft. Back in the day they did but not so much recently. In the last 4 drafts they picked Aiden Major (RHP, West Virginia, pick 146, rank 245; Christian Knapczyk (SS, Louisville, pick 161, rank 157); Guy Lipscomb (OF, Belmont, pick 151, not ranked), Tanner Bibee (RHP, Cal St. Fullerton, pick 156, rank 162). So their history and the pro performance of these guys show they are willing to be risky but their success was when they went for a solid college pitcher who the FSFCP could develop. Obviously this pick will be highly dependent on who is available and who has what bonus demands compared to the talent of HS flyer picks who could be drafted later. I think Barr will be available and that other teams picking after the Guardians 5th round pick will be kicking themselves for not picking Barr in their previous pick.
Next time I will finish up my mock draft rationalization series talking about the Guardians last 5 picks in the top 10 rounds, slots 192, 222, 252, 282 and 312.
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