If you think picking at the end of the first round is hard to predict, think about at the end of the second round where some guys have been overdrafted and some guys have fallen dramatically, maybe as much as 20-30 spots.
That being said, I think it helps that the Guardians draft history gives us some clues. So here is the thinking I used to come up with their 3 second round picks.
- There is only 1 pick between their 2nd round pick (#64) and their first Comp B pick (#66) and only 3 picks between their first Comp B pick and their second one (#70). I think this will give the Guardians a little freedom in making these 3 picks as the odds of losing a guy they really want between 64 and 66 are very low and also kind of low between 66 and 70 and even 64 and 70..
- I think one of their developmental strengths is finishing off the development of college pitchers so I think 2 of these 3 picks will be college pitchers.
- My feeling is that their next position player after Fischer in the first round will be a power hitting outfielder from a good college program.
- I don't think they draft a HS pitcher or position player at any of these 3 picks as there will likely be a lot of good, 2nd tier college players available.
Second Round Slot 64
Dennis pick: Joseph Dzierwa - LHP Michigan State
Rationale - A strength of this draft at this point will be college pitching. A lot of these pitchers have warts. Not enough FB belo, not enough control, not a good enough junior year performance, not enough pitches to remain as a starter. Cleveland looks for pitchability guys. That is, guys who have some fastball but have lots of control and effective of their secondary stuff. Dzierwa is a fastball/changeup guy with above average (55) control. He is rated as #74 by both MLB Pipeline and ESPN (I won't pay for a BA subscription). He seems like a Cleveland guy and with the success of Parker Messick, who is the same type of pitcher, IMO, I think this is a good, solid pick for Cleveland at this point. An added plus is that he is a cold weather guy, having pitched at Michigan State.
COMP B Pick Slot 66
Dennis pick: AJ Russell - RHP Tennessee
Rationale - Here is where having two picks close together is helpful. Russell could turn out to be the prize or the bust of this draft FOR ANY TEAM THAT PICKS HIM. Rated 69 by MLB Pipeline and 80 by ESPN, Given that his FB is rated a 70 right now and an 80/80 if he adds some velo (92-95 now, touching 98), he might even go in the first round! He has had durability issues so teams may be wary of him but I think if he is there at 64, he will be there at 66.
COMP B Pick Slot 70
Dennis pick: Gavin Turley, OF, Oregon State
Rationale - This is a "free" pick, coming in the Josh Naylor trade. After drafting 2 college pitchers I was looking for a college positional player to replace Naylor's power and not clog, if possible, our up and coming position player prospects. Impressions of Turley's value vary widely. MLB Pipeline has him at 78 whereas ESPN doesn't even have him in their top 150. Remember, this is MY draft, meaning that it is MY premise for what this organization needs. In preface to my mock I have said that this organization needs to focus on college power hitters and college pitchers in this draft. Turley is the power hitter with some scouts hanging a 70 on his power with consensus at 60. He also shows, some speed, a good arm and is a good fielder in the OF, meaning he has some positional value that other college power hitters (even Andrew Fischer, who was my first round pick) do not have. I am taking my shot at him here.
Other possible picks
So, here is where it becomes difficult as there are soooooo many ways the Guardians could go here. For example, you could substitute power hitters Henry Ford (LF/1B), Jarren Jones (1B) or even the very upwardly mobile Nolan Schubart (LF) (although I hate late risers in the draft.
As far as high school picks I don't see the Guardians going this direction. They have already stocked up with HS pitchers in the last couple of draft. Velasquez has reaffirmed that HS hitters can take a long time to develop.
As far as college position players, I don't see anyone I like more than Turley and I don't want to draft 3 college position players in my top 4 picks of ANY draft.
There are a lot of intriguing college pitchers at these 3 slots. Eyanson, Thompson, Curry, Crossland, Witherspoon. Control was not optimal for some of these guys but they all have some polish and one or more plus pitches.
Summary
As far as pitchers these predictions could go to heck in Dzierwa and Russall are gone. If they are there this would solidify our draft with solid to spectacular, depending on development ML pitchers in the Messick, Gavin Williams ilk. As far as replacing Turley if he is gone, there are ample power hitters, just not ones with his positional versatility. However, since the goal is to add power, I could live with a little positional limitation as not all prospects develop into major league players.
If we are going with HS players here it is safe to say that NONE of them will be major leaguers when Jose's current contract runs out...and I am looking for the ML talent to be young, strong and cheap when we try to convince Jose to finish his career in Cleveland.
Next time we will look at our 3rd-5th round picks and see how I got to those players.
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