So where do the Indians stand on all of this? I am really not sure. But let's, once again, look at what they are good and bad at:
Good: Identifying, picking and developing 2nd and 3rd tier college pitchers who they can mold into major league pitchers.
Bad: Developing any viable catching prospect
Bad: Developing high school pitchers to get them to the majors
Bad: Working with HS athletes to develop them into viable ML hitters, even if those athletes (eg, Will Benson, Quentin Holmes, etc.) have good pedigrees coming out of high school. Note that Nolan Jones, one of those types of players, is hitting pretty well but his power has not developed and, in fact, has regressed this year.
Given the above, you would guess that they would:
(a) Bring in coaches/staff who could develop these kids into ML hitters and pitcher
or
(b) Stop drafting high school pitchers and hitters and focus on college players
So what did we do: In the first draft led by our new scouting director, Scott Barnsby, in the first 10 rounds we drafted a lot of HS players, some of which were highly questionable picks, one questionable college hitter and 3 college guys who project as relief pitchers.
So in those first 10 rounds we drafted towards our developmental weakness. In the last 30 rounds we drafted 21 college pitchers, many of who had stats and attributes that made them perfect to play to our developmental strengths.
But it's the first 10 rounds where you normally get your stars from.
A number of quotes from Mr. Barnsby were really interesting, two in particular:
“We were really aggressive on Day 1, so I’m not sure how many opportunities we’re going to have to sign some of those younger guys on Day 3.”
In other words, he is saying that they will have to pay a lot of money for the guys in the first 10 rounds so there won't be a lot of money left for 'flyers' picked in later rounds. That's good because there was only one flyer picked in the last 30 rounds.
It is kind of hard to believe that we were aggressive in the first 10 rounds as we drafted exactly ONE guy who was rated higher than where we drafted him and a number of the HS picks in those first 10 rounds were really questionable talents compared to where they were drafted.
“There was a group of college bats that we had up there maybe more so than normal,” he said. “It’s really difficult to scout a high school hitter and a lot of times in high school they need to get stronger, there’s a lot of things that they need to work out mentally. They go to college, they perform for three years, then all of a sudden you feel more comfortable about taking those guys."
So, let me get this straight. You had a bunch of college hitters high on your draft board and yet you didn't pick any of them? One way to interpret that is that you got aced out of the guys you really wanted to draft and thought you could sign and had to panic and settle for guys you really didn't want.
So, in summary, I will be harsh. I think Scott Barnsby blew his first draft. Blew it out his butt hole, frankly. My prediction is that he will overpay his top 4 round guys, guys he probably wasn't even targeting, just to save face on the draft. We will waste this money as these guys are not good enough for the bonuses they will get. Except for Espino, it will not even be close. Or maybe he will come to his senses and let some of these guys walk, like Valdes and Naranjo, who I think we can get draft choices for next year if we don't sign them. If he lets some of these guys walk, we will end up with the worst signing rate for first 10 round picks in Indians' history.
C'mon, Indians. You are a small market club. You cannot blow a draft like you blew this one. You just can't, because this is going to be a disaster. Let's hope the July International amateur signing period turns out better for us. I have a sneaking suspicion that behind closed doors, the Indians management and ownership feels that putting money into that is more productive than throwing money at draft choices.
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