We are a week away from the draft and people are wondering who their team might take and running through their mock drafts.
There's a great new tool out there that has AI generate an overall mock draft where you can input just the players you want your team to take. It also eliminates options as it goes along as it keeps track of your bonus pool and doesn't allow you to draft players you can't afford.
A couple of thoughts after using this tool:
1. It shows you there is no right or wrong pick. As the tool has eliminated the human component, there is no butterfly effect.
2. In addition, if you were debating between two guys, it is likely that the guy you didn't select will be gone with a couple of picks if you don't select him.
That being said, it allows you to see how a strategy can unfold based on what you are trying to do.
For me, this draft is all about college pitching in the first 10 rounds and only one HS flyer in the first 10 rounds as the quality college pitchers are going to be gone in the time between our first and 2nd pick. Which is yet another reason why not having the Comp A pick really hurts. FYI, the AI's mock draft always had Taylor Rabe of Ole Miss being selected at or a little after the 29th pick that we traded to SF along with Wilkinson to get Bailey.
#1
So, here is how my mock draft went:
#19 - As I said I would, I went with Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas Razorbacks. There was really no other choice for me unless he was taken, in which case I would take Taylor Rabe, RHP, Ole Miss. But in this mock Dietez was there.
#59 - In the 2nd round I overdrafted Maxx Yehl, LHP, West Virginia. I was looking for another college SP and Yehl was, for me, the best available at that time. This will be a very controversial pick for many people and may diminish the credibility of this mock draft but, to me, it makes sense.
#95 - Sticking with solid college SP in round 3, I selected Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston State - He is a classic command and control guy who can touch 96 now with more in the tank.
NOTE: My 2nd and 3rd round picks might need to be flipped as not every ranking site has them in the order I rated them.
#123 - Unfortunately, we don't have much excess money to spend due to the trade of our Comp A pick for Bailey, so I had to limit my overslot spending to one pick: Kaeden Waechter, RHP, HS in Florida. His father is Doug Waechter, a former ML pitcher. As a 4th round pick, with the slot and my savings from the other picks in the first 10 rounds, I should have enough money for Waechter who will give me a good entry level pitching prospect to follow Gomez, Doughty, Humphries and Oakie.
#155 - Getting back to college pitching, in the 5th round I really love Josh McDevitt, RHP, Missouri here.
#184 - In the 6th round I am selecting Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA here. Randall has a huge fastball and little else, making him the classic reliever in waiting.
213 - in the 7th round I am ticking with the big fastball, I am going with Cam Johnson, RHP, Oklahoma here. Like Randall, Johnson needs to work on his fastball control but, for the first half of the season, was Oklahoma's Friday night SP, although he didn't pitch in the NCAA playoffs at all.
243 - I have limited funds left to spend so in the 8th round I went with Zane Adams, LHP - Alabama - Another college SP, I see a LH Trenton Denholm or Aaron Davenport in him.
273 -In the 9th round I am going with another cost-friendly college pitcher, Bryson Moore RHP - Florida St.
303 - In the 10th round I went with senior reliever J. P. Robertso RHP - Ole Miss
So, this is where the Over-Slot app cuts off. As you can see, I picked nothing but college pitchers except for Waechter. HS hitters are too big of a risk and HS pitchers are, too, and we already have a good number of the latter in our minor league system. The college hitters all, to me, looked like more of the same of what we have already and, literally, not one college hitter excited me enough to draft them, when I considered what we already have in our system.
I will have more thoughts about the last 10 rounds later this week but to start off, here is who my 11th round pick would be, assuming he is still available. As a senior sign, he might be gone a lot earlier as my 11th round mock pick last year, went in the 6th round. BTW, Smith is hitting for big power and has already climbed 3 levels up to AA in his first full season in professional baseball.
I literally only have $200 K in excess at this point but that doesn't count the $469 K I get if I go 4.99% over my bonus pool. So, maybe $650 K to spend on a HS pitcher flyer or two if they pop up in the last 10 rounds. But, to tease the last 10 rounds, here is my 11th round pick, if he is still there.
333 - Judd Utemark - UTIL - Ole Miss - Have loved this guy for 2 years. HR power and multiple position utility guy, including even a little catching. Reminds me somewhat of David Fry. As a senior sign, I really hope he is there in the 11th and if he is, I pop him no matter who else is there.
#59
Cade Townsend RHP, Ole Miss - An incredible long shot to last this long, Townsend was passed over in the playoffs in favor of Hunter Elliot and Rabe. While most people think he will be gone long before this spot, it is not out of the question that he falls this far as his lack of pitching in the NCAAs could snowball. With the combines and the draft league I doubt it but a drop in velocity or command in those events lets me dream that he is still there at #59.
Joey Volchko, RHP - North Carolina - Two things lobby against Volchko still being available at #59: His fastball and his dominant, complete game start in the college WS. Still, his overall body of work is really dicey, even for a 2nd round pick. His start in the WS was the perfect example as his FB was moving all over the place and catching corners and missing bats. But a good scout could probably see professional hitters would probably spit on the pitches he was getting college WS batters out with.
Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston St. - Peterson is a classic Cleveland pitcher and if they can tone down the urge to go all brass ring on this pick, Peterson will be a solid pick. Think Austin Peterson X2 in terms of potential with a good floor.
