We Are Lucky

 This season, like, last year, has been a struggle.  But as we all wring our hands because the possibility exists that this season could quickly slip away from us, let's look at what we are lucky for.

1. We are lucky we are in one of the two weakest divisions in baseball.

Look, it's here or the AL West. These are the two divisions that we are capable of competing in to win a division title. 

2. We are lucky we are in the AL

There are more teams above .500 in the NL, which puts us firmly in a wildcard spot right now. If we were in the NL, we would be among a whole bunch of teams competing for the last wildcard spot, but on the outside looking in.

3. We are lucky that we have the easiest schedule in baseball the rest of the way.

Yeah, we are 13-15 since Jose, Angel and CDL went down in the same game but we are (kinda) surviving that and looking forward to getting those guys back.

4. We are lucky there are SOOOO many buyers and so few sellers at the deadline.

WTF you say?!?!  Yep, it would suck to be a buyer in a seller's market.  Hopefully that keeps us from doing something stupid, like pushing a lot of chips in trying to bring in veteran players for a stretch run with a work stoppage looming.

5. We are lucky that Jose and Angel are, hopefully, coming back soon.

We have been treading water but we need the help.  Now Jose will likely not have power when he comes back and I hope to heck he knows that and becomes a supercharged version of Kwan instead of trying to be Aaron Judge.  We need him to be PART of the solution, not THE solution.

6. We are luck that our rotation and bullpen has been mostly solid and healthy.

We need that to continue, but we have been lucky with this so far.

7. We are luck we have Carl Willis

He is the glue that holds this pitching staff together.

8. We are lucky we have Steven Vogt.

Could you imagine Vogt in New York where every failed move is blasted by every possible source?  Vogt plays the long game better than any manager I have ever seen.  People don't like that about him but I love it.  He gets that it is a marathon and, for the most part, askews trying to turn it into a sprint.  I thnk the players buy in and work within that, knowing the success we have had.

9. We are luck to have had, and hopefully will have, meaningful baseball to play all the time as Guardians' fans.

I almost can't remember the 70s and 80s anymore, at least the baseball part. While there are lean years sprinkled into our 21st century baseball experience, we don't have whole decades like we used to.

10. We are lucky to have lived through the golden age of Guardians' baseball, 

The 70s and 80s were not good baseball decades for Cleveland but, for the most part, we have only had bad years, instead of bad decades, sprinkled in with our good years.

There are lots of things to be unhappy about with this baseball team from the ownership down to the players but we are really lucky and I hope we remember that.

Have a great evening, a great week and a great rest of the baseball season.  Go Guardians!

How Would It Work If We Even Shortened the MLB Draft?

 With age comes perspective. or so I have been told.

I have been a draft geek for most of my life.  When I grew up Cleveland's baseball team was so bad that the two times of year I could get really excited about it was during the draft and during September callups when I would search for heroes that were going to save me from the bad and mediocre teams of my youth.

So it was disappointing to me when the draft went from an unlimited number of rounds (no mor Mike Piazzas) to 40 rounds and then, after COVID and the reduction in minor league teams, to 20 rounds (no more Cody Allens and Daniel Schneemans).

Ahh, but we are back to that perspective thing (no pun intended, based on the name of this blog). 

Watching the Guardians draft in these last few years it is clear to me that the draft could really be limited to 15 rounds and it wouldn't impact the ML roster...like ever.  This would especially be true if HS kids were eliminated from the draft pool.

So what would a draft of less than 20 rounds look like?

1.  I can't see the draft being less than 15 rounds.  There has to be some wiggle room in case you can't sign some of your early picks. 

2. Just in case owners are thinking they can save money on the draft by shortening it, let's make sure that doesn't happen:

    a. The 15-round draft would be completely slotted, with the last pick in the 15th round having a slot value of $150,000.  Same rules as apply now would apply if this change was implemented relative to not exceeding your bonus pool or your bonus pool plus 5% if you are OK with paying a penalty.

    b. There will be NO trading of draft picks before the 10th round and only the top 10 teams in terms of revenue could trade picks, whereas every team could accept picks in trade. Draft picks from the upcoming draft are the only ones that can be traded. Look, while free trading of draft picks might make the horsetrading in baseball more fun, the goal of this rule would be to keep teams from crippling themselves long term AND to eliminate yet another way for owners to be cheap because trading a draft pick means they don't have to spend money on SIGNING the guy they drafted at that pick.

    c. Unlike proposals that have been floated, teams could sign up to 5 NDFAs with the top value being $140,000.  Anything over this bonus would count against the draft pool bonus.

    d. Obviously there would be no HS kids drafted and players are eligible for the draft after completing their 2nd year in college. If a player doesn't go to college they would be eligible in the first draft 3 years (2 seasons) after they graduated from high school.

So, we have cut the draft down by 5 rounds to limit the need to fill out your draft with organizational players who have little chance to make the majors.  We have also raised the bonuses for players by extending the slotting down to the end of the 15th round.  Finally, we have added some intrigue by allowing limited trading of draft picks in a way that doesn't allow cheap teams to avoid drafting players just to save money.  

I think this is a good plan but, of course, this is collective bargaining where good plans go to die.

The Case for Eliminating HS Seniors from the MLB Amateur Draft

Recently, as part of their latest proposal, the owners want to eliminate HS kids from the pool of players eligible for the amateur draft.

Given the owners' stance on other topics related to the new CBA, I tried to imagine how this would help the greedy owners to hold onto their money.  

Then something strange happened.  I found myself agreeing with the owners on this one topic.

I think we should limit the MLB draft to college sophomores and higher.

The statistics are compelling.  Before I present those counting stats, a few words about my process.  

A. The first 5 rounds represent 'pure' drafting.  That is, due to the numbers of potential high impact prospects, few college senior signings designed to save money. So, for college kids I used the first five rounds of drafting because it gets messy after that as teams are drafting low cost college seniors whose draft slot is generally not representative of their talent just to save money for a drafteee (usually a HS kid) who will require and over slot bonus.

B. Looking at HS players drafted, I used the first 11 rounds.  HS flyer picks are spread throughout the draft but the better ones are usually in the bonus pool rounds (1-10) and in the 11th round.  After that, the HS kids that are picked are usually low level prospects or, especially with ranked HS kids, contingency picks in case a team has excess bonus money (above slot) that they budgeted but had a player turn down (FYI, they lose the SLOT value if the player doesn't sign but they can still spend the excess they have saved up in the first 10 rounds). So the first 11 rounds is probably a good cutoff of kids they actually intend to sign.

C. I used MLB Pipeline's top 250 rankings.

So , here are the stats:

Of the first 11 rounds (343 picks) only 64 pcks (19%) were used for HS kids.  Only 3/4 of those HS kids were top 250 ranked prospects. The 49 ranked HS kids drafted in the first 11 rounds represents only 50% of the HS kids ranked in MLB's top 250, with the other 50% of the HS kids not being drafted.  

Looking at just the first 5 rounds for college players, of the 123 who were selected in the first 164 picks (41 were HS kids), 108 (88%) were ranked in the MLB's top 250. As expected, after round 5, the number dipped significantly with about 20% of the college players selected in rounds 6-10 being ranked prospects with a large number being drafted, in part, because they would sign for underslot bonuses. 

So, 49 ranked HS kids (about 25% of ranked draftees in the first 10 rounds) are HS kids. So 75% of RANKED prospects drafted in the first 10 rounds are college kids.  

So, what can we glean from this data?  Only about 50% of ranked HS kids are deemed signable or, at least, signable for the bonus they say they want.  Put another way, half of the quality HS kids would rather go to college.  Looking at top prospects and excluding low bonus draftees, we still have 75% of draftees being college kids.

Also, it should be noted that one study showed that 98% of draftees in the first 10 rounds sign so the above numbers not only represent who is drafted but that ranked players usually sign if drafted in the first 10 rounds.  

So what the MLBPA says is, essentially, correct.  Looking at relevant drafted players, most of the draftees are college players.  In addition, 50% of the good HS prospects feel it is in their best interest to go to college, due to some combination of NIL money and the feeling they can develop and do better in the draft after college experience.  

My take on this data is that only a few players would be inconvenienced if we eliminated drafting HS kids entirely.  Also, and this is just my opinion, the vast majority of the HS seniors who are signing are doing it so they can grab the brass ring while it is there, not because they feel pro development is superior to developing their skills in college.

What is indisputable is that teams are spending a lot of money signing HS kids to overslot bonuses.

Additionally, it is very likely that the draft pool of quality prospects in each draft would be almost identical to what it is now, as a HS kid not drafted in 2027 would likely be a quality prospect in the 2029 or 2030 draft.

OK, so the above stats show that not drafting kids out of high school would impact a limited number of prospects, let's talk about the pros and cons of eliminating this group from the draft entirely.

Cons

1. Kids might get injured in college and lose their leverage to get signed

2. Kids might not want to go to college

3. Kids might not get the development in college that they would get as professional players

4. Development would be turned over to the colleges and we have no way of ensuring the training would be as good as these players would get from professional coaches.

5. Many colleges might not have infrastructure to support full scholarships for more talented players or NIL money to offset what these kids would make if they turned pro.

Pros

1. Kids would have an extra 2-4 years of playing baseball before they started playing it for a living

2. Kids would be more physically developed before they started the rigors of professional baseball

3. NIL money would help mitigate, to a small extent, the money these kids would lose by not turning pro.

4. Travel ball for younger kids might be less stressful if players were just playing trying to get a college scholarship as compared to getting a fat pro contract. It doesn't mean that travel ball won't have pressure, but just that the pressure will be different and, IMO, less intense.

5. Development time in the minors would likely be 1-2 years shorter if a player went to college.

6. The current loose transfer portal rules would allow players to move around in college until they found the spot that was right to help their development.

7. This would eliminate putting 18 year olds who may never have lived away from home in less structured situations than they would get in college

8. Even kids who don't necessarily want to go to college would likely benefit in getting a free education in case their professional baseball dreams don't work out.

There are clear tradeoffs here but, similar to other topics in the CBA, discussions, it seems to boil down to one thing: when and how much money will the players be able to grab or the owners be able to keep.  

In my opinion, professional baseball would not be impacted negatively if drafting HS kids was banned, College baseball would be improved and, except for a very few players each year, kids would likely get to the majors at roughly the same rate.

So, let's eliminate drafting HS kids.  

THE OTHER ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

There is still one significant issue that eliminating the drafting of graduated HS seniors will create.

The current amateur player acquisition process creates sort of a continuum of prospects in the minors.

16/17 year old international signees

18/19 year old HS kids

19/20 year old JUCO kids

20-24 year old college kids

If we eliminate drafting of kids who have not completed their sophomore year in college, we would create a gap of 3-4 years between the international FAs and the youngest US drafted player.  The young international kids would have to scale 3 levels (DSL, ASL, A ball) before most would be ready to compete against the youngest US draftee.  

I don't believe it is prudent to just move the signing age for international FAs to sign to match the US draftees.  Even creating an international draft would not help as the young international prospect system is really set up to get these kids into pro ball at a young age as there is no place for them to play and develop for an additional 3-4 years.  There are also socioeconomic reasons why it could be devastating for these young international signees to have to wait 2-3 years longer than they have to sign now.

That 3 year gap in age and development would mean that the international signees would be training against themselves for 3 years which is not ideal for their development, their education or their socialization into professional baseball.    I don't have an answer right now for how to handle this but, clearly, that solution would have to be incorporated into the next CBA.

2026 Draft - My Annual Shadow Draft

 OK, the draft is over and draft grades are starting to come in.  The one I have seen so far gives Cleveland the SECOND LOWEST GRADE IN THE MAJOR LEAUGES for their 2026 draft.

This is the part I hate about a draft.  Looking back and seeing what could have/should have happened.

So here is my draft, most of which is from my pre-draft and after first day mock drafts.  Where guys have already been selected by other teams, I simply slid guys up or plugged in guys of roughly the same ability.

1 - Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arnkansas

2. Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston St.

3. Nathan Taylor, RHP, Cincinnati [NOTE: It was Maxx Yehl but he was taken already]

4. Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA (NOTE: It was Josh McDevitt but he was taken already)

5. Eric Nachtheim RHP, McNeese St.

6. Cam Johnson, LHP, Oklahoma

7. Savion Sims, RHP, HS

8. Chris Katz, 1B, Mercer

9. Gavin Van Kempen, RHP, East Carolina

10. Christian Coppola, RHP, St. Joseph's

11. Mark Quatrani, C, Notre Dame

12. Grayson Fitzwater, 1B, VMI

13. Judd Utemark UTIL Ole Miss

Rounds 14-20 - HS pitchers and college power hitters

NOTE: These were all guys I had mentioned in my posts so I didn't just back engineer this shadow draft.

Willing to put this one in a time capsule and come back in the requisite 5 years.

2026 Draft - Final Comments Before My Shadow Draft

Let's start off by saying what every 'expert' says about a draft.  It's impossible to determine whether a draft is a good one for 5 years.  The problem with that axiom is that if you get to the end of that 5 year period, and you are a limited-resource team AND that draft stunk, you are probably struggling to put a good team on the field. 

So, while you can't FULLY tell how a draft will turn out for 5 years, you can make some pretty clear statements about how the draft will impact your team in the future.

People also will tell you that teams should draft the best available player and not worry about need.  While that is true, there needs to be context there.  Drafting a good college pitcher who should get to and be impactful in the majors in a couple of years has to be compared to drafting a better HS pitching prospect who will take 5 years to establish themselves in the majors and whose group (HS pitchers) have a historically greater chance of failure.

With that being said, the Guardians started the draft with a number of realities

1. Their ML starting pitching is razor thin

2. Their starting pitching depth in the minors is almost non-existent with one real SP prospect, Braylon Doughty, and he is barely starting AA.  There's no one else who even can be considered a real prospect right now, based on the combination of age and minor league performance.

3. The areas of strength and depth in their minor league system are:

    a. Catchers

    b. Outfielders (both contact and power)

    c. Middle Infielders 

    d. HS pitching prospects in the low minors

So entering the draft there were clear areas of need and areas of strength where any prospect added would have to leapfrog to the top the prospect strength for that position.  

So let's see what they did in the draft:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Guardians had a chance to fill the pipeline with what they needed, starting pitching close to the majors.  Instead, the top 3 talents they selected were one college pitcher who needs fixing and two HS pitchers, one of whom is a lottery ticket.  To pay for that lottery ticket they had to spend 3 draft picks in the top 10 on low talent, cheap college seniors, meaning that lottery ticket actually will cost them a lot of money and cost them FOUR picks, instead of one.  Besides those 2 picks, the Guardians drafted 2 college slap hitting OFers, a college catcher who doesn't leapfrog really anyone on their catcher depth chart, a college firstbaseman without power (after drafting 2 of those in the top 10 rounds last year. and, including the college seniors drafted to save money in rounds 8-10, 12 low level college pitchers with little to no chance of ever playing in the majors, if you compare those picks to similar picks from the last 2 drafts.

Draft grade: B- if they are able to maximize Peterson and Schmidt and Sims make the majors; If they can't get those 3 to their potential, this draft is a D-, as there is very little of substance left after those 3 unless some amazing development occurs in players where that wasn't expected.  NOTE: this is not what you wanted to hear with the bad draft of 2025 and the lack of starting pitcher depth in this system. Resource-limited teams like the Guardians need good drafts that keep the line moving in terms of getting prospects to the majors who are impactful.

ROUND-BY-ROUND ANALYSIS

#19 - The Guardians drafted a college pitcher, Liam Peterson.  Peterson has lots of talent but hasn't translated that to performance in 2026. They are counting on their pitching development group to make the changes necessary to turn talent into performance.  To me, he is the 2026 version of Jace Laviolette, a gamble on making changes that will bring the college player to the majors very quickly if they are successful.  If they were going for a college pitcher, they had a chance to draft Hunter Dietz or Taylor Rabe for current performance and future projectability and Cameron Flukey if they wanted a college pitcher who was more highly rated over the winter but had injury and performance issues in 2026

#59 - The Guardians went with a HS pitching prospect, Logan Schmidt. Schmidt was a small bargain (45th ranked player) vs his draft slot (59) but, as a HSer, will cost much more than the slot assigned for that draft slot and will be further away from the majors than a college pitcher.  Ryan Peterson (#86) who was actually seleccted at #71. The upside AND risk for Schmidt is great but this Peterson has good upside and a much quicker path to the majors.  Schmidt is not a bad pick by the Guardians but, given that Peterson would make the majors at least 2 years earlier and have a great chance of making it at all, I would have gone with the greater need, SP closer to the majors.  

#95 - The Guardians selected slap hitting Tre Broussard, a guy with great speed, a good defensive centerfielder but with little power.  They basically drafted Petey Halpin part deux.  

#123 - The Guardians selected Kade Lewis, a college thirdbaseman who will likely end up at first base. He has very little power. Think of CJ Kayfus but without the athleticism to play in the OF.  

#155 - The Guardians selected Lucas Moore, another Petey Halpin clone.

#184 - The Guardians selected Deiten LaChance, a college catcher who doesn't surpass another on the current catching depth chart, falling just below Jacob Cozart.   Possibly they feel this increase in depth will allow them to trade Cozart or, more likely, Cooper Ingle.

#213 - Savion Sims - The Guardians selected an expensive unicorn lottery ticket.  By that I mean he has a huge fastball with good extension but little control or quality secondary pitches.  Whatever length of time it takes to get Schmidt to the majors add 1.5 years to that for Sims.  Basically, he may not make the majors until Jose's contract expires, if then, as he is the classic HS RHP who flares out so often in the minors.

Picks 243 -603 - People may try to point to some redeeming value for these last 13 picks but Guardians' draft history tells me these guys are just organizational filler with maybe one even sniffing the big leagues.  Basically, a waste of 13 picks.  Any player here a match for a similar, recently drafted player.  For exzmple, Ben Cleary is just Tyrese Turner.  Who, you say?  Exactly.

I can't tell you how disappointed I am in this draft.  I will have my shadow draft later tonight but it looks a lot like my last mock draft. that I posted on Friday.

Look, if you are Cleveland and if this draft goes south you just don't recover from it since you can't go out and buy players to offset your draft and international signing mistakes in both selection and strategy..

Hey, at least the ML teams is in first place.  Maybe they can keep this going in future years with more AAAA signings and bargain basement free agents to augment their current, young core.

2026 Draft - Second Day Live Blog

 OK, we're back at it.  The Guardians opened yesterday with 4 picks:

1. Liam Peterson - RHP - Florida: This year's version of Jace Laviolette, Peterson is coming off a disappointing year.  He has great upside.  If you believe in high ceiling low floor in your first round college pitcher draft choice, Peterson is your guy.  There is nothing NOT to like about this pick but, at the same time, Dietz or Rabe would have been much better selections to me as they just need tweaks whereas Peterson needs an overall.

2.Logan Schmidt - LHP - HS - An absolutely great pick here except that by the time Schmidt makes it to majors, Jose Ramirez will be 38 years old.  And that doesn't even count the poor percentage of HS pitchers that make the majors and the even worse percentage of Guardians HS P draft picks that are ML successes.

3. Tre Broussard - OF - Houston - His one plus tool is his speed and he plays good defense, meaning we have drafted a Petey Halpin clone.  And, for a 3rd round pick, that's not the comp you want to have in your 3rd round pick. Did I mention he is yet another LHH?

4. Kade Lewis - 1B - Wake Forest - Lewis is a first baseman w/o much power.  Think CJ Kayfus.  I would feel better about this if the Guardians had a better development record with hitters.

So, we go to day 2 with a very underwhelming group of prospects where only one, Peterson, has much of a chance to positively impact the franchise during the Jose Ramirez contract window. In addition, they have done only a little to address the LARGE void of starting pitching prospects in this organization.

Let's go to Day 2:

 5. Lucas Moore - OF - Louisville - Another LHH outfielder with great speed and ZERO power,  it's hard to believe that they have niw drafted TWO Petey Halpin clones in their first 5 picks.

6.  Delten LaChance - C - Oklahoma - What position in this organization did we not need to draft?  Well, with Bailey, Hedges, Naylor, Huff, Ingle, Cozart, etc., the answer is obvious: CATCHER.  What position are we most in need: College starting pitcher.  So we drafted an incredibly slow-footed catcher meaning a position switch is also problematic.  At least he hits RH and has some power.  My impression of this pick is that the Guardians are chasing ranking numbers to make their draft look better.  You certainly can't say that the Guardians are drafting for need.

7. Savion Sims - RHP - HS - Another highly rated HS pitching prospect, Sims, if he signs, will need a lot of work in the Guardians' pitching lab as his control of his 100 mph fastball is suspect.  This is a good pick except we haven't drafted any good college SPs except for Peterson and we don't have a lot of excess draft pool since we traded away a first round pick with a $3.2 million pool value.

8. Matt Scott - RHP - Georgia - So we start the parade of low ranked college juniors or, in this case, college senior pitchers who have low potential.  This is not what I meant by adding college pitching.  Scott is a reliever and profiles like most round 5-10 college relievers we have drafted: organizational fodder.  Money-saving pick #1

9. Matt Pesca - RHP = Oklahoma State - The second non-descript college senior pitcher in a row, This schtick is a staple of Guardians' drafts but is even more irritating as this draft, so far, has offered very little that will help Cleveland in the next few years.  C'mon guys, it's a little early to start drafting organizational guys, right?  Ovviously trying to save money to sign Sims and Schmidt.

10. Ryan Bilka - RHP - Miami - Another college senior signing.  Just padding the war chest for Schmidt and Sims. Totally nothing for the ML team for years to come, though.

 

2026 Draft - Day 2 Opening Post

 HOW WOULD I HAVE DONE USING MY DRAFT BOARD

I was to going with an all college pitcher draft through round 10.  Like other teams, I wanted my guys and was only moving off them if they had been drafted.  So, let's see what my first 4 rounds would have looked like:

1. Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas

2. Adam Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston St.

3. Nathan Taylor, RHP, Cincinnati

4. Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA

These 4 guys would have been there when I drafted in each round and there the guys I wanted.  Obviously guys like Maxx Yehl, LHP, West Virginia and Josh McDevitt, RHP, Missouri were way overdrafted and so were gone when I would have picked them in my last mock draft.  So I had to pivot.

Right now I am looking at the following picks tomorrow.

5. Cal Randall and, if not, Eric Nachtheim

6. Cam Johnson and, if not, Zane Adams

7. Gage Peterson and, if not, Tyler Fay

 

8. Aiden Weaver and, if not, Beau Bryans

9. Gavin Van Kempen, RHP East Carolina

10. J.P Robertson, RHP, Ole Miss 

My last 10 from my most recent mock draft are still intact after the first day of the draft so as we get through round 10 we'll see how that goes.

2026 Draft - End of First Day Post

 SUMMARY

I think you can summarize the Guardians draft today in four bullets and a note:

1. They drafted Peterson, who is going to require some work to avoid being a bust.  That being said, he was one of the top college pitchers in the draft. If they think they can get to his upside AND if they think he has a better chance to get to that upside than some other college pitchers in this draft, then I hope they are right.

2. They drafted a HS pitcher in the 2nd round.  While he was a good value for the slot, value in the draft is only good if value in the major leagues is obtained.  The Guardians are historically so bad at obtaining ML value from HS pitcher draftees you have to ask yourself if this was a good value pick or just a good window dressing pick. When you consider that Doughty is the only HS pitcher who they have recently drafted who looks like a sure major leaguer, color me unconvinced that this pick was the best resources.

3. Their next two picks were LHH slap hitters.  Did they not learn how fruitless that was from Lampe, Furman, Hawke, Knapczyk and others they recently drafted in the top 5 rounds?  High floor, extremely low ceiling.  Not good!

4. All 4 of their picks today were very young for their class.  That sounds like trying to show you are the smartest guys in the draft.  Here is a thought. Some of the proposals for the next CBA involve free agency after 5 ML seasons and arbitration for everyone after 2 seasons. Thus, by drafting young guys, we could be paying these guys when they are very young and losing them another year before their prime if these rules go through.  Both of these are exacerbated by drafting younger than average guys.

NOTE: Had we had our CB-A pick we could have had our choice of Taylor Rabe or Hunter Dietz with that pick to go with Peterson. 

For comparison sakes, let's compare my last mock draft to this one:

#19: Me: Dietz (#17, went #35)  Guardians: Liam Peterson *#20)

#59: Me: Ryan Peterson (went #71)  Guardians: Logan Schmidt

#99: Me: Mass Yehl (went #91)  Guardians: Tre Broussard

#123: Me Nathan Taylor (went #101)   Guardians: Kade Lewis

So my draft was blow up early as Yehl and Taylor were snatched before I could get them. 

CONCLUSION

Frankly, I don't know where they go from here.  They are in the middle of the top 10 rounds now and this has been increibily unproductive over the past 3 years because of stupid draft strategies like LH slap hitters and pitchers who are way overdrafted.  

Let's hope they can pull their collective heads out of their butts and actually come up with a good draft strategy that will be successful for the next 16 rounds because, right now, this draft is very, very underwhelming and discouraging to me.  Not that it is bad, just that it has a better than average chance to turn out bad and it is based on a failed premise that LH slap hitters will work as a strategy and that we can develop HS pitching prospects into productive major leaguers.  The only group that we have shown the ability to develop is college pitchers and we only drafted one of them in 4 rounds.  So, no, I don't want any Aiden Majros, Dylan DeLucias, etc. tomorrow.  I don't want any more hit-over-power college hitters.  And I doubt that there are any quality college pitchers left.

So where does that leave us?  I don't know but I know that our history in these rounds suck and, somehow, these idiots need to figure out how to save this draft from turning out like 2022, 2023, 2024 and, maybe (time will tell) 2025.  

At leaset the Guardians won today because their draft room didn't, repeating the same things they have failed at in the recent past.

2026 Draft - Day 1 Live Post

 As the 2026 draft is about to begin I am doing what has become a yearly tradition for me: a live blog.

Before we start here are some general thoughts:

1. Draft picks should not be traded.  If you are a Cleveland fan of all their teams all I have to do is mention two names: Ted Stepien and DeShaun Watson.  Teams, especially CB draft choice teams should NEVER be allowed to trade draft picks.  Non-CB teams should only be allowed to trade draft picks for the next draft and only draft picks from rounds 11-20.

2. We need to eliminate the ML R5 draft.  When you draft a guy, you should get get the entire length of his control, including the time before he can become a minor league free agent. 

3. There are two basic draft strategies, quantity and quality.  The former relies on cost-saving picks and, recently, even obtaining CB picks to generate a large later round bonus pool for more flyer picks who require overslot bonuses.  The quality approach involves drafting the best player available, no matter the bonus demand. It is what you could refer to as grabbing the brass ring.

4. Watch the Guardians, maybe not in the first round, but overall to see if they are going cheap.  They have the bonus pool to go for ONE big HS flyer.  Whether it is Waechter, Frishkorn or even Thome, they should go for one of these guys.

5. If you see a draft pick delayed, it may have to do with pre-draft decisions.  If a guy has dropped and that team didn't anticipate that player being there, they might be on the phone negotiating to make sure they can sign that player.  If they can't agree on the bonus, they will go a different direction and that player who has dropped, will be talking to the next team interested in him.

6. I see so many college baseball games being streamed now, don't we think it is possible that AI could be used to d0 3/4 of the scouting?

So, we're off.

Picks 1-4 

These were all as predicted for a long time.  Nothing to talk about here.  Likely quality-based picks althought the top 4 picks almost always save huge amounts of pool, just based on the larger bonus slots of these 4 picks.

Pick 5-6

Curiel and Rose were the first surprises. People love to use 'overdraft'.   Heck, I do it, too. These were both quantity approach picks.

Picks 7-8

Booth and Burress are on-slot picks.  These are quality over quantity picks

Pick 9

Gracia is another quantity pick.  

Pick 10 

Colorado picks the safe SS, Tyler Bell.  I would have gone George Lombard if I was them so I think this was slightly quantity over quality draft but it shouldn't impact, one way or the other, on their ability to draft aggressively later in the draft.  And they DO need to draft aggressively from here on out.

Pick 11 

Hacopian is a quanitity pick.

Pick 12

Gridlinger to the Angels is more of a quality, brase ring grab pick.  They are looking at a long rebuild and need star=quality prospects, not just good, solid prospects.

Pick 13

Thirteenth player selected, thirteenth-ranked prospect.  Solid, long-term play for the Cardinals.  

NOTE: Lebron & Helfrick are still on the board.  It will be interesting to see if they fall like rocks due to worries about their junior year hitting.  

Pick 14 

Clearly the most aggressive, quality pick in this draft so far.  Miami fans should be excited.  

Pick 15

Just like the Miami fans have to be ecstatic, the Diamondback fans have to have mixed emotions right now.  He has a floor of Austin Hedges but the question is how much better than Hedges will he be as a hitter.  I would have been disappointed if the Guardians drafted him in the firsst round but obviously the D-bakcs think like the Guardians do.  Defense at catcher is uber important.

Pick 16

Texas goes for the best HS pitcher in the draft.  Again, this is a quality pick but within slot.  It is a long-term play as the Rangers do not appear concerned with stuffing the top of their pitcher prospect list with players closer to the majors,,,or they just don't like any of the college pitchers left.

Pick 17

Houston picks the 42nd best player in the draft to get a college bat.  Seems like a quanitity over quality pick.  He is a solid prospect that should save Houston some money.

NOTE: I see teams mavbe saving money for HS flyers later, maybe a little more than normal.

Pick 18

Wow, Lebron to the Reds.  This is a gamble from them.  I hope it works out.

Pick 19 

There were FIVE pitchers the Guardians could have gone with: Peterson, Flukey, Dietz, Kuhns, Carlon.  They picked Peterson.  In theory, there were no bad picks here.  I have to think that his upside was what they want and they feel they can fix him to reach that upside.  Look for the Red Sox to pop Dietz.

Picks 20-28

I am lumping these together as I move on to other things in my day.  Here are my thoughts:

Schaffner - Clear quanitity pick, saving money for later

Borthwick - Quantity pick

Flukey - Tigers getting a solid college pitcher with a gamble level about the same, on paper, as Peterson but 3 picks later.  Again, no wrong pick in this range for college pitchers, just who you think you can develop in your system

Townsend - What I just said about Flukey

Reese - Good college hitter. Likely undervalued as his position may end up being 1B but a good vlaue.

Ebel - Long term quantity play here.  Lowest ranked pick drafted so far.  Teams like who they like.

Beck - As in most drafts, at some point, things go off the rail.  This is the case with Beck. Clearly an extreme quantity play.  Head scratching decisions are made by teams every draft and this is one of them.  

 Wiggins - Wow, not only an overdraft but a draft OVER his highly ranked college teammate, Dietz.  Now I am starting to think something medical is going on with Dietz.  Time will tell.

Radel - Interesting.  Probably quantity over quality but the back story with Kuhns, Dietz, Rabe, etc. becomes even more interesting.

NOTE: Remember when we traded for Bailey and I didn't like it.  Well here we are at 29 and we could have had our choice of Dietz, Rabe, Kuhns, Carlon and Edwards, to say nothing about Daniel Jackson on the position player side.  Really wish I had the #29 pick instead of Bailey.

2026 Draft - Part 7 - Final Pre-Draft Thoughts and Final Mock Draft

 FINAL PRE-DRAFT THOUGHTS

This is the time of the draft cycle where I get the most nervous.  The Guardians, ever since the 2021 draft, have, in my opinion, acted like they are the smartest guys in the draft.  The 2022 and 2023 slap hitter drafts were very ill conceived.  The 2025 draft of college hitters in a college pitcher heavy draft felt the same way and still does, despite those guys feasting on inexperienced pitchers in the Midwest League.  The Guardians have been tied to HS hitters, college contact hitters and even some college power hitters in the first round of the 2026 draft.  People have claimed that they are looking into the power hitter demographic in college and in high school.  The phrase, you can never have too much pitching, should be on a big banner in their draft room.  Since 2022 with Campbell and Messick, they have not drafted a quality college starting pitcher and it shows in their minor league depth and pitcher prospect pipeline close to the majors. Their minor league rotations are full of lower level college pitchers, none of whom is having much, if any, success.  

Given that the 2025 draft has the potential to be one of the worst in Guardians history (IMO, the hitters success from that draft comes against lower level competition and, even then, comes with red flags like too many Ks and bad defense).  We need to be following up that draft with a safer one that fills needs in our system, not a brass ring grab of HS players who have a high failure rate and clearly take a longer time to develop than college players.  We just can't afford to have the Guardians act like they are the smartest guys in the room or not have a solid plan to fall back on if they get punched in the mouth by not getting their guy or their backup plan to that guy, in the first 5 rounds of the draft like I am convinced happened in 2025.

Guardians: pitching and defense wins.  Draft to the part of that philosophy that involves pitching and your developmental strengths.  So, that leads me to my final mock draft before the action starts tomorrow.  As you will see, mine is a strange draft that has two parts: college pitching and lower ranked college power hitters.  That latter group is likely to littered with organizational guys but if even one or two of those picks click to produce a ML power hitter, it will be wildly successful.

FINAL MOCK DRAFT

I have described my draft philosophy which is, simply put, college pitching x9 and a HS pitching flyer in the first 10 rounds. So, drum roll please, here is my 2026 final pre-draft Guardians mock draft:

#19 - Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas (Baseball America: 35, ESPN: 15, MLB: 17,  Over-Slot: 24)

        - Alternate Selection: Taylor Rabe, RHP, Ole Miss (BA: 26, ESPN: 48, MLB: 40 , O-S: 26)

#59 - Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston State (BA: 84, ESPN: 154, MLB: 86, O-S: 151)

#95 - Maxx Yehl LHP, West Virginia (BA: 124, ESPN: 161, MLB: 217; O-S: 104)

#123 - Nathan Taylor RHP, Cincinnati (BA: 144, ESPN: 242, MLB: 215, O-S: 167)

#155 - Josh McDevitt, RHP, Missouri (BA: 197, MLB: 236, ESPN: NR, O-S: 278)

#184 - Cam Johnson, LHP, Oklahoma (BA: 184, ESPN: NR, MLB: 250, O-S: 425)

            Alternate Selection: Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA

    

#213 - Zane Adams, LHP, Alabama (BA: 221, ESPN: NR, MLB:NR , O-S: 291)

#243 - Jensen Hirschkorn, RHP, HS (BA: 43, ESPN: 58, MLB: 56, O-S: 71) - HS RHP overslot $2.5 MM flyer

#273 - Gavin Van Kempen, RHP, East Carolina (BA: 274, MLB: NR, ESPN: NR, O-S: NR)

#303 - J.P. Robertson, RHP, Ole Miss (BA: NR, ESPN: NR , MLB: NR , O-S: 387)

Seeing the BA rankings, this is an aggressive mock as some of these guys (like Yehl, for example) may be gone at the slots I picked them.  I am so locked into the first 6 pitchers that, except for the first round where we would likely have guys like Rabe, Kuhn, Townsend, Carlon, Edwards and maybe even Liam Peterson, in that order, if Dietz is gone,  if one of my picks in rounds 2-6 weren't available, I just would insert Cal Randall, RHP UCLA or move everyone up one slot and then backfill. Then I would backfill with a college pitcher or an overslot HS hitter.  

My rounds 11-20 will likely be almost all college power hitters, many of them senior signs. I am done with the HS flyer pitchers (except for one) and gimmick college pitchers (e.g., Schuelke).  If even one or two of these college power hitters pan out, this would be wildly successful.  Remember, last year I predicted Boston Smith & John Day as my late round college power hitters and both are doing very well in the minors in their first full year.  So, that's my plan.

Here is an example of what I would do, should these guys be available.:

333 - Mark Quatrani, C, Notre Dame (Note: I saw him hit a 462 foot HR)

363 - Judd Utemark, UTIL, Ole Miss

393 - Michael Anderson - 1B - Penn St.

423 - Michael O'Shaunesy - INF - Georgia

453 - Grayson Fitzwater, 1B/OF, VMI

483 - Chris Katz, LF/RF/C, Mercer

513 - Alec Welshans, UTIL - La Salle

543 - Dagen Brewer, OF, Pittsburgh St.

573 - Joe Whitaker, INF, Belmont Abbey

603 - David Hinojosa, RHP, NY HS

This group has 1 college junior (Quatrani), 8 college senior power hitters and the usual late round HS flyer (Hinojosa).  I know this is incredibly unusual but as picks 11-29 rarely pan out, these picks at least pay homage to the Guardians desire to infuse more power bats into their system.

Now the waiting starts.  Hopefully, whoever the Guardians draft, will be well thought out, balancing floor and ceiling and, in 3 years or so, we will see a lot of these guys in Cleveland helping the ML team win a WS!

2026 Draft - Part 6 - Lessons From Past Drafts - Demographics and What They Should Point the Guardians Towards In This Draft

 OK, there is a lot of buzz about who the Guardians are rumored to be taking early in the 2026 draft.  Like everything else, the Guardians play this stuff close to the vest so its hard to invest much angst at this point.  But...

Any post by me about what they have done in the recent past will create strawmen which may or may not be accurate.

I get that. 

And plans change if other teams make surprise picks or have the same plan as you do, but with earlier selections in each round.  I get that, too.

Nevertheless, when I hear that the Guardians are going to leaning toward a particular demographic, I have to ask myself how that worked for them in the recent past.

 I have heard are that the Guardians will be looking at college and HS bats.  The former may include power hitters and contact hitters and the latter is leaning more toward power hitters.  Still, the consensus is that they could be looking at bats instead of arms.

So, looking back, let's see how targeting a particular demographic has worked for them recently, using just data from the first 5 rounds, which is when a team is most likely to get the players they covet the most, looking at the highest level they have played A LOT at:

2020

1 (23) -  Preston Tucker - HS Hitter - released

CBA - Tanner Burnes Collete Pitcher - released

2 - Logan Allen College Pitcher - Majors

3 - Petey Halpin HS Hitter - AAA (ML cup of coffee)

4 - Milan Tolentino HS Hitter - AAA

5 - Mason Hickman College Pitcher - released

2021

1 (23) Gavin Williams College Pitcher - Majors

2 - Doug Nikhazy College Pitcher - AAA (ML cup of coffee)

CBB Tommy Mace - Collet Pitcher - AAA

3 - Jake Fox - HS Hitter = AA

4 - Ryan Webb - Collete Pitcher - AAA

5 - Tanner Bibee - College Pitcher - Majors

2022

1 (18) - Chase DeLauter - College Power Hitter - Majors

CBA - Justin Campbell -  College Pitchers - AAA

2 - Parker Messick - College Pitcher - Majors

3 - Joe Lampe - College Slap Hitter - AA

4 - Nate Furman - College Slap Hitter - AA

5 - Guy Lipscomb - College Slap Hitter = AA

2023

1 (23) - Ralph Velazquez HS Hitter - AAA

2 - Alex Clemmey  HS Pitcher - High A

CBB - Andrew Walters College Pitcher - AAA (ML cup of coffee)

3 - CJ Kayfus - College slap hitter - AAA (ML cup of coffee)

4 - Cooper Ingle - College slap hitter - AAA (ML cup of coffee)

5 - Christian Knapczyk - College slap hitter - AA

2024

1 (1) - Travis Bazzana - College Power Hitter - Majors

CBA - Braylon Doughty - HS Pitcher - A+ (AA cup of coffee)

2 - Jacob Cozart - College Hitter - AA

3 - Joey Oakie - HS Pitcher - Low A

4 - Rafe Schlesinger - College Pitcher - High A

5 - Aiden Minor - College Pitcher - Low A

2025

1 (20) - Jace Laviolette - College power hitter - High A

2 - Dean Curley = College Hitter - High A

CBB - Aaron Walton - College Hitter - High A

CBB - Will Hynes - HS Pitcher - Rookie

3 - Nolan Schubart - College Power Hitter - High A

4 - Luke Hill - College Hitter - AA

5 - Riley Nelson - College Hitter - Low A

SUMMARY

Here are the demographics for these 6 drafts, with my interpretation of their success which will obviously be based on less data in 2025 than in 2020

1. The Guardians, except for 2024, have normally drafted in the high teens, low 20s, in each round, 

2. The Guardians have had the following success with each demographic above:

    a. College Pitchers - 13 drafted, 6 'successes' (Allen, Williams, Bibee, Walters, Messick and, yes, Campbell), 3 possibles

    b. HS Hitters - 4 drafted, 1 success (Velazquez), 2 possibles (Halpin, Tolentino)

    c. College slap hitters - 7 drafted, 2 successes (Kayfus, Ingle)

    d. College power/overall hitters - 8 drafted (5 in 2025), 2 successes (DeLauter, Bazzana), 6 possibles

    e. HS Pitchers = 4 drafted, 1 trending toward success (Doughty), 2 question marks

Looking back in these 6 drafts the Guardians have had pretty good, albeit not perfect success drafting college pitchers. They have also had decent MINOR LEAGUE success drafting HS pitchers early, but this is a very tough demographic in terms of % chance of success. They have drafted 4 HS hitters and only Velazquez looks to have a decent chance of ML success. Just like HS pitchers, HS hitters are a tough demographic, even more risky than HS pitchers.  Finally, they are pretty bad at drafting college contact hitters with only Ingle and, to a lesser extent, Kayfus, having a chance to be any more than organizational players.

CONCLUSIONS

For me, the conclusion is simple.  While they have drafted some successes in each of these categories, they have had the most success drafting college pitchers.  Aside from anecdotal success, they have been unsuccessful drafting college or HS hitters after the first round. Finally, HS pitchers take so long to develop it is impossible to look at their recently drafted HS pitchers and see which ones will eventually make the majors, let alone have ML success. The point here is that if the Guardians are saying we should draft HS power hitters because we drafted Velazquez and look at how that owrked, it would really be troubline to me because I view Ralphy as more of an outlier, good for our farm system but bad to build a future draft strategy around.

I am also not into looking at what the strength of the draft is and leaning into that.  While that sounds good on paper, in reality that just would get you a great prospect at a position where you are stacked.  For example, I love Daniel Jackson of Georgia Tech but I would not think of drafting yet another catcher in an organization deep with catching when I could get similar quality of players at positions of need.

Looking at the minors, the Guardians have a good pipeline of hitters but have very few pitching prospects.  Given the window for this team, the only thing that makes sense for me is drafting college pitchers early with one HS flyer pitcher and, if the opportunity arises, drafting one power bat, but not in the first round.

I know I have been harping on this all winter but the Guardians are good at drafting and developng college pitchers. They also have a need for pitchers who will get to the majors quickly and that, again, is college pitchers.  While the 2026 draft is not strong in college pitching there ARE quality college pitchers out there and I think the above data shows that we should be drafting mostly college pitchers in the 2026 draft. Going away from that demographic could lead to slow developing prospects who will not be ready in this window or who, due to their demographics, have a huge chance of failure.  Yes, grabbing for the brass ring is nice, but for an organization like Cleveland that counts on their prospects, it is generally better to not draft high risk players.

2026 Draft - Part 5 - Latest Update and Guardians' Mock Draft

 We are a week away from the draft and people are wondering who their team might take and running through their mock drafts.  

There's a great new tool out there that has AI generate an overall mock draft where you can input just the players you want  your team to take. It also eliminates options as it goes along as it keeps track of your bonus pool and doesn't allow you to draft players you can't afford.

A couple of thoughts after using this tool:

1. It shows you there is no right or wrong pick.  As the tool has eliminated the human component, there is no butterfly effect.  

2. In addition, if you were debating between two guys, it is likely that the guy you didn't select will be gone with a couple of picks if you don't select him.

That being said, it allows you to see how a strategy can unfold based on what you are trying to do.

For me, this draft is all about college pitching in the first 10 rounds and only one HS flyer in the first 10  rounds as the quality college pitchers are going to be gone in the time between our first and 2nd pick.  Which is yet another reason why not having the Comp A pick really hurts.  FYI, the AI's mock draft always had Taylor Rabe of Ole Miss being selected at or a little after the 29th pick that we traded to SF along with Wilkinson to get Bailey.

#1

So, here is how my mock draft went:

#19 - As I said I would, I went with Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas Razorbacks.  There was really no other choice for me unless he was taken, in which case I would take Taylor Rabe, RHP, Ole Miss.  But in this mock Dietez was there.

#59 - In the 2nd round I overdrafted Maxx Yehl, LHP, West Virginia.  I was looking for another college SP and Yehl was, for me, the best available at that time. This will be a very controversial pick for many people and may diminish the credibility of this mock draft but, to me, it makes sense.

#95 - Sticking with solid college SP in round 3, I selected Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston State - He is a classic command and control guy who can touch 96 now with more in the tank.

NOTE: My 2nd and 3rd round picks might need to be flipped as not every ranking site has them in the order I rated them.

#123 - Unfortunately, we don't have much excess money to spend due to the trade of our Comp A pick for Bailey, so I had to limit my overslot spending to one pick: Kaeden Waechter, RHP, HS in Florida.  His father is Doug Waechter, a former ML pitcher.  As a 4th round pick, with the slot and my savings from the other picks in the first 10 rounds, I should have enough money for Waechter who will give me a good entry level pitching prospect to follow Gomez, Doughty, Humphries and Oakie.

#155 - Getting back to college pitching, in the 5th round I really love Josh McDevitt, RHP, Missouri here.  

#184 - In the 6th round I am selecting Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA here.  Randall has a huge fastball and little else, making him the classic reliever in waiting.

213 - in the 7th round I am ticking with the big fastball, I am going with Cam Johnson, RHP, Oklahoma here.  Like Randall, Johnson needs to work on his fastball control but, for the first half of the season, was Oklahoma's Friday night SP, although he didn't pitch in the NCAA playoffs at all.

243 - I have limited funds left to spend so in the 8th round I went with Zane Adams, LHP - Alabama - Another college SP, I see a LH Trenton Denholm or Aaron Davenport in him.

273 -In the 9th round I am going with another cost-friendly college pitcher, Bryson Moore RHP - Florida St.

303 - In the 10th round I went with senior reliever J. P. Robertso RHP - Ole Miss

So, this is where the Over-Slot app cuts off.  As you can see, I picked nothing but college pitchers except for Waechter.  HS hitters are too big of a risk and HS pitchers are, too, and we already have a good number of the latter in our minor league system.  The college hitters all, to me, looked like more of the same of what we have already and, literally, not one college hitter excited me enough to draft them, when I considered what we already have in our system.

I will have more thoughts about the last 10 rounds later this week but to start off, here is who my 11th round pick would be, assuming he is still available. As a senior sign, he might be gone a lot earlier as my 11th round mock pick last year, went in the 6th round.  BTW, Smith is hitting for big power and has already climbed 3 levels up to AA in his first full season in professional baseball.

I literally only have $200 K in excess at this point but that doesn't count the $469 K I get if I go 4.99% over my bonus pool.  So, maybe $650 K to spend on a HS pitcher flyer or two if they pop up in the last 10 rounds. But, to tease the last 10 rounds, here is my 11th round pick, if he is still there.

333 - Judd Utemark - UTIL - Ole Miss - Have loved this guy for 2 years.  HR power and multiple position utility guy, including even a little catching.  Reminds me somewhat of David Fry. As a senior sign, I really hope he is there in the 11th and if he is, I pop him no matter who else is there.

#59

Cade Townsend RHP, Ole Miss - An incredible long shot to last this long, Townsend was passed over in the playoffs in favor of Hunter Elliot and Rabe.  While most people think he will be gone long before this spot, it is not out of the question that he falls this far as his lack of pitching in the NCAAs could snowball.  With the combines and the draft league I doubt it but a drop in velocity or command in those events lets me dream that he is still there at #59.

Joey Volchko, RHP - North Carolina - Two things lobby against Volchko still being available at  #59: His fastball and his dominant, complete game start in the college WS.  Still, his overall body of work is really dicey, even for a 2nd round pick.  His start in the WS was the perfect example as his FB was moving all over the place and catching corners and missing bats.  But a good scout could probably see professional hitters would probably spit on the pitches he was getting college WS batters out with. 

Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston St. - Peterson is a classic Cleveland pitcher and if they can tone down the urge to go all brass ring on this pick, Peterson will be a solid pick.  Think Austin Peterson X2 in terms of potential with a good floor.